diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv index ae8a509..332cdbd 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.csv +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.csv @@ -3,48 +3,48 @@ ","6",2 "How many U.S. job postings requiring machine learning skills will be published between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/116-how-many-postings-for-u-s-jobs-requiring-machine-learning-skills-will-be-published-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 70,000"",""probability"":0.0333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000"",""probability"":0.3333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000"",""probability"":0.2267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 130,000"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for 2020 Q3 and 2021 Q1. You can view those forecasts here and here. For 2020 Q3, the answer was 39,364 and the median crowd forecast was 37,271. We will add the resolution for the 2021 Q1 question as soon as the data is available. Context. Job postings reflect the priorities and expectations of employers. They provide hints about future research and development. Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Burning Glass Technologies. The date of a job posting is the date Burning Glass retrieves the data. The question resolves when CSET receives Burning Glass data through December 31, 2021. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","3",2 -"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.3775,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.0425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","4",2 +"What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/117-what-will-total-u-s-trade-volume-with-china-imports-and-exports-of-goods-be-in-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $400 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion"",""probability"":0.43200000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion"",""probability"":0.306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $775 billion"",""probability"":0.034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for 2020 and 2021. The crowd's mean forecast for 2020 was $506 billion, and the correct answer was $560.1 billion. The crowd's mean forecast for 2021 is $524 billion. You can view those forecasts here and here. Context. The U.S. and China are the world's two largest economies and each other's largest trading partner. Since 2018, they have been engaged in an escalating trade war, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further reduced trade.  Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on U.S. Census Bureau data. It includes trade in goods only, not services. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","5",2 "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 3%"",""probability"":0.14800000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.28800000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.39799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.5%"",""probability"":0.055999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","5",2 "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $470 billion"",""probability"":0.051399999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion"",""probability"":0.21170000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion"",""probability"":0.3443,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $680 billion"",""probability"":0.2826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Previous version. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The median forecast for the first half of 2021 was $557 billion. Although that question has not yet resolved, based on data for the second half of 2020 -- $631 billion -- big tech revenue appears to be increasing ahead of the crowd's predictions. You can view those forecasts here.Context. Even as the economic crisis deepened, large tech companies have have demonstrated resilience, beating Wall Street Analysts’ expectations. Data and Resolution Details. This question resolves based on the 10-Q filings of Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc., Facebook Inc., and Microsoft Inc. It resolves when these companies’ 10-Q filings for the fourth quarter of 2021 are publicly available.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today ","52",2 "Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/113-will-the-chinese-military-or-other-maritime-security-forces-fire-upon-another-country-s-civil-or-military-vessel-in-the-south-china-sea-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the first half of 2021. The final crowd forecast was 11%. The probability generally declined during the period the question was open. You can view that question and the results here. A variation on this question was also issued for Summer 2020. You can view that question and the results here. Context. The South China Sea is host to vast natural gas resources as well as a number of competing territorial claims. China has built military bases on several coral atolls and reefs in the South China Sea, and rejected an international tribunal's ruling that it has no historic rights claim to resources in certain sea areas. These bases now include sophisticated facilities meant to enable military operations in this strategic area. The U.S. conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) to demonstrate China’s lack of claim to the area, which have sometimes led to tense encounters between the U.S. and Chinese navies. China’s Maritime Militia and Coast Guard have also clashed with foreign fishing vessels in the area. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. ""Fires upon"" assumes the discharge of a weapon with lethal intent and does not include methods such as water cannons, rubber bullets, or ramming.***This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World -","91",2 +","93",2 "Will Xi Jinping be General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee on December 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/115-will-xi-jingping-be-general-secretary-of-the-chinese-communist-party-s-central-committee-on-december-31-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. The Chinese Communist Party will elect a new 370-member Central Committee at its next quinquennial National Congress, likely in October or November 2022. Immediately after this Party Congress, the new 20th Central Committee will hold a plenary meeting that selects the Party’s General Secretary for the incoming five-year term.The General Secretary chairs the Central Committee’s top 25-member Politburo and the Politburo’s elite seven-member Standing Committee. Since the early 1990s, the General Secretary has concurrently served as President of the People’s Republic of China and Chairperson of the Central Military Commission. The General Secretary is thus the “paramount leader” of the three sectors of regime power: the Party, the State, and the People’s Liberation Army.Xi Jinping became General Secretary after the 18th Party Congress in November 2012 and was reselected for a second term at the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. When Xi began his tenure the expectation both within the Party and among domestic and international observes of China was that he would follow the succession norm set by his predecessors Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin of stepping down as leader after serving two full five-year terms.But since coming to power, Xi has reversed the Party’s previous trend toward “collective leadership” and become the powerful “core leader” of a far more personalized political set-up. Xi has crippled rival power centers in the Party, elevated close associates to key leadership positions, centralized policymaking authority in “leading small groups” that he chairs, and asserted unparalleled authority over the armed forces and security services. These developments have led many observers to argue that Xi will secure a norm-defying third term as General Secretary at the 20th Party Congress. In March 2018, China’s legislature amended the State Constitution to delete a two-term limit for Presidents of the People’s Republic, removing the only formal barrier to Xi serving as paramount leader indefinitely.Other analysts warn that Xi’s position is more precarious because of the backlash generated by policies that target rival elites, suppress civil society, and potentially slow China’s growth. Xi, who turns 69 years old in 2022, would also have to win exemption from a 20-year-old norm that cadres aged 68 or older are not appointed to a new PBSC term.Resolution details. This question resolves based on the leadership positions listed on the website of People’s Daily, the official mouthpiece of the Chinese Communist Party’s Central Committee. The next General Secretary should be announced in the communique of the First Plenary Meeting of the 20th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, likely in October or November 2022.***This question was contributed by Neil Thomas and Jordan Schneider. -","141",3 +","142",3 "How much funding will private U.S. tech companies raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/111-how-much-funding-will-private-u-s-tech-companies-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $40 billion"",""probability"":0.0559,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.23170000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion"",""probability"":0.42450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion"",""probability"":0.21239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion"",""probability"":0.0755,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $73.7 billion, and the correct answer was $59.0 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is ""private"" if it's not publicly traded. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The chart below does not include an anomalous $100 billion raised by Broadcom Limited in February 2018. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today For more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" ","43",2 "How much funding will U.S. tech startups raise between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/110-how-much-funding-will-u-s-tech-startups-raise-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $13 billion"",""probability"":0.0348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion"",""probability"":0.42369999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion"",""probability"":0.32189999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.0833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $19.35 billion, and the correct answer was $18.67 billion. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Crunchbase data. Crunchbase classifies every company under multiple “category groups.” For this question, companies are classified as “tech” if software, hardware, internet services, or information technology are among their category groups. These categories are overlapping. A company is classified as a startup if the funding round in question is any of the following: pre-seed, seed, angel, series a, series b, or venture round. This question resolves on January 30, 2022, 30 days after the forecast period ends. The question -- and the graph below -- therefore includes only transactions entered into Crunchbase within 30 days of the date of its announcement. Historically, 80% of new funding is entered into Crunchbase within 30 days. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Tech Companies Threaten DemocracyFor more on this metric, see the accompanying Foretell metric analysis: ""Are Established Tech Companies Crowding Out Startups?"" ","41",2 -"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.16010000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3186,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.30760000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1681,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.045599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump."" -","119",3 +"What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/109-conditional-on-president-trump-not-being-convicted-of-incitement-of-insurrection-what-will-the-senate-s-average-bipartisan-index-score-be-from-2021-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than -0.25"",""probability"":0.1675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive"",""probability"":0.319,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25"",""probability"":0.3066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5"",""probability"":0.1612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.5"",""probability"":0.045599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued conditional on Trump not being convicted. A sister question was conditioned on Trump being convicted. After Trump was not convicted, we voided the sister question and removed the condition from this question. As of the Senate's vote on conviction, the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump's conviction was 0.1244; the median forecasted Bipartisan Index Score for the question conditioned on Trump not being convicted -- this question -- was 0.0718. Context. On January 13, 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives impeached President Trump for ""incitement of insurrection,"" setting up a trial in the Senate. If two-thirds of present Senators vote to convict President Trump, it would take only a simple majority of Senators to bar him from federal office in the future. A point of disagreement is whether a conviction would lead to a more or less divided country. Congressional bipartisanship is one measure, albeit an imperfect one, of how divided the country is.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the average Bipartisan Index score of all members of the Senate during the117th Congress, which runs from January 3, 2021 through January 3, 2023. The Bipartisan Index, a joint project of the Lugar Center and Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy, quantifies congressional members’ bipartisan behavior on the basis of bill sponsorship and co-sponsorship. The Bipartisan Index scores for this period are expected to be published in March 2023.The graph below shows the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score over time. Notably, the average score increased during the Trump Administration. The Lugar Center has hypothesized a ""Trump Effect"" in which ""the details of legislative work have offered Republican Senators an avenue to express subtle independence and broaden their appeal without reference to the daily media focus on President Trump."" +","121",3 "How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI research contracts between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/106-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-research-contracts-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.053200000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $350 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21309999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $350 million but less than or equal to $500 million"",""probability"":0.3461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than or equal to $650 million"",""probability"":0.2373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $650 million"",""probability"":0.1503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to December 31, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $441 million, and the correct answer was $302.8 million. This question is the crowd's biggest miss to date. DoD AI contracts over this period were notably lower than they were during the first half of 2020 ($490.5 million).Context.  The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. In the annual budget justification, DoD distinguishes research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&amp;E) with procurement, i.e., acquiring systems. The budget justification includes both grants and contracts under RDT&amp;E. Data on actual DoD expenditures, collected primarily in the Federal Procurement Data System, carves the space differently, separating grants and contracts and not separating RDT&amp;E and procurement. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Bloomberg Government (BGOV) data. Using data from several sources, including the Federal Procurement Data System, Sam.gov, and Freedom of Information Act requests, BGOV classifies contract transactions into one or more market area. For this question, a contract is an ""AI contract"" if BGOV classified it in the ""Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning"" market. It's a ""research"" contract if it has a ""Research and Development"" Product Service Code. The years are calendar years, not fiscal years. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecast: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today Tech Companies Threaten Democracy To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. ","96",2 -"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.0479,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3299,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1956,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","118",3 -"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.044199999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0919,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.21539999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.3546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.2938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","44",2 -"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.3003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1103,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** -","120",3 +"How much will the U.S. Department of Defense spend on AI grants between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/107-how-much-will-the-u-s-department-of-defense-spend-on-ai-grants-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than $30 million"",""probability"":0.048600000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.30269999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million"",""probability"":0.3281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million"",""probability"":0.1957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 million"",""probability"":0.1249,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was $94.6 million, and the actual value was $41.3 million. Context. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) funds research through both grants and contracts. This question focuses only on grants.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on data from the Dimensions grant database. For this question, a grant is an ""AI grant"" if the abstract mentions either ""artificial intelligence"" or ""machine learning."" The graph below does not include data for the first half of 2020. As of June 20, 2020, the Dimensions grants data reflects grants through May 27, 2020, and shows a total of $7,104,943 in grant spending in 2020. This question resolves when CSET receives Dimensions grant data through December 31, 2021.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Tech Companies Threaten Democracy Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","119",3 +"How many AI papers will be posted on arXiv between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/103-how-many-ai-papers-will-be-posted-on-arxiv-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 26,000"",""probability"":0.0426,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.0885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000"",""probability"":0.2148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000"",""probability"":0.35259999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 32,000"",""probability"":0.3015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously issued for the period July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast was 10,793, and the correct answer was 10,808. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on arXiv data. ArXiv is an open-access repository for pre-print papers. Authors organize their papers under one or more arXiv category. For this question, a paper is an ""AI"" paper if it's labeled any of the following: artificial intelligence; computer vision; computation and language; machine learning; or robotics. This question resolves when CSET receives arXiv data through September 30, 2020. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","45",2 +"How many members will the Alphabet Workers Union have by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/105-how-many-members-will-the-alphabet-workers-union-have-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 800"",""probability"":0.1276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 800 and 4,000"",""probability"":0.4341,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000"",""probability"":0.29960000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000"",""probability"":0.1085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000"",""probability"":0.0301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On Monday, January 4, a group of Google tech workers announced they'd formed the Alphabet Workers Union. The union, unprecedented in Silicon Valley, is the culmination of years of employee activism at Google relating to issues such as sexual harassment, algorithmic bias, and pay equity. In addition, as reported by Vox, ""Google worker concerns also include ethical questions about how the company is run, like whether it should be making software used in warfare or border patrol.""The union is a minority union, meaning it doesn't seek to represent a majority of Google employees in a ""bargaining unit"" under U.S. labor law. As reported by the New York Times, ""workers said it was primarily an effort to give structure and longevity to activism at Google, rather than to negotiate for a contract."" Nevertheless, whether the union affects how Google is run will depend in part on how many members it attracts. As of Monday, it reported more than 225 members, out of the over 260,000 eligible employees and contractors. The union has not yet reported how many new members it attracted after Monday's public announcement.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the most recent membership numbers reported by the union as of December 31, 2021. *** +","125",3 "What percentage of U.S. news articles about AI will be about privacy and security between July 1 and December 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/104-what-percentage-of-u-s-news-articles-about-ai-will-be-about-privacy-and-security-between-july-1-and-december-31-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 0.45%"",""probability"":0.0458,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%"",""probability"":0.3048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23149999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2%"",""probability"":0.23670000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related question. This question was previously issued for the period June 15 to August 15, 2020. You can view it here. The crowd's mean forecast  was 1.15%, and the correct answer was 1.3%. Those two months were not representative of the second half of 2020 overall, however, which was 0.7%.Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from Nexis Metabase, a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. An article is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence""; and it's on the topic of privacy and security if it mentions the terms ""privacy"" and ""security.""  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following world forecasts: COVID-19 Surveillance Strengthens Authoritarian Governments Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today ","50",2 -"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** -","111",3 +"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/102-will-nvidia-acquire-arm-by-march-30-2022","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.*** +","113",3 "How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0.337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""One"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Two or more"",""probability"":0.293,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry ","92",2 "What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/100-what-percentage-of-the-collective-revenue-of-the-leading-semiconductor-manufacturing-equipment-producers-will-come-from-china-between-july-1-2020-and-june-30-2021-inclusive","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 20%"",""probability"":0.0965,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 20% and 25%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17550000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%"",""probability"":0.36229999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%"",""probability"":0.2483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 35%"",""probability"":0.1175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry. ","62",2 "Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/99-will-the-united-states-re-enter-the-2015-nuclear-deal-with-iran-by-december-31-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. *** -","271",3 -"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.038599999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.2447,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** -","200",3 -"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19269999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2772,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.1334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","187",3 -"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.062400000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1565,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.2999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.1578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. -","117",3 +","273",3 +"When will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/97-when-will-ant-financial-have-an-ipo-in-china-or-hong-kong","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Before February 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.038,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive"",""probability"":0.10779999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.24239999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""After November 17, 2021"",""probability"":0.6118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Tensions between China's president, Xi Jinping, and one of its wealthiest entrepreneurs, Jack Ma, escalated on November 3 when President Xi personally made the decision to suspend the IPO of Ant Financial (link in Chinese). Ant Financial uses big data harvested from its Alipay app -- one of China’s most ubiquitous mobile payment platforms -- to target users for financial services such as loans, credit, and insurance plans. Its IPO was anticipated to be the largest in history and bring the company’s market capitalization to over $300 billion.The decision to postpone Ant’s IPO followed meetings between Chinese regulators and its executives, including Jack Ma, co-founder of Alibaba and Ant’s largest shareholder. Ma has previously criticized regulators for suppressing innovation in the fintech sector, and the government’s move to apply more stringent regulations is widely seen as a win for China’s state-owned banking sector.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on popular media sources. If an IPO in China or Hong Kong has not occurred by November 18, 2021, we will consider the correct answer ""after November 17, 2021."" In other words, the latest option includes the possibility an IPO never occurs in China or Hong Kong. *** +","202",3 +"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/91-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-what-percentage-of-u-s-residents-will-have-an-unfavorable-view-of-china-as-reflected-in-the-2022-pew-global-attitudes-survey","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 59%"",""probability"":0.1315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 59% and 66%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1916,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%"",""probability"":0.2637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%"",""probability"":0.2802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 80%"",""probability"":0.133,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","189",3 +"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 15%"",""probability"":0.063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15% and 17%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%"",""probability"":0.3233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%"",""probability"":0.295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 21%"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. +","120",3 "Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/89-conditional-on-vice-president-biden-s-election-will-the-u-s-government-file-an-antitrust-lawsuit-against-apple-amazon-or-facebook-between-january-20-2021-and-january-19-2025","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today -","160",3 +","162",3 "What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/45-what-percent-of-u-s-corporate-press-releases-about-ai-will-be-about-ai-ethics-in-2021","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 1.5%"",""probability"":0.0676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1405,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%"",""probability"":0.2122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%"",""probability"":0.2672,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6%"",""probability"":0.3125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field ","188",3 "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020","CSET-foretell","[{""name"":""Less than 675"",""probability"":0.44520000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 675 and 750, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 750 but less than or equal to 825"",""probability"":0.1523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 825 but less than or equal to 900"",""probability"":0.0867,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 900"",""probability"":0.042699999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question. diff --git a/data/csetforetell-questions.json b/data/csetforetell-questions.json index 6bca45e..3162f6c 100644 --- a/data/csetforetell-questions.json +++ b/data/csetforetell-questions.json @@ -79,32 +79,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $400 billion", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.235, + "probability": 0.188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", - "probability": 0.3775, + "probability": 0.43200000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", - "probability": 0.295, + "probability": 0.306, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $775 billion", - "probability": 0.0425, + "probability": 0.034, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "4", - "numforecasters": "4", + "numforecasts": "5", + "numforecasters": "5", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -196,8 +196,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "91", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -217,8 +217,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "141", - "numforecasters": "119", + "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasters": "120", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -301,22 +301,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.16010000000000002, + "probability": 0.1675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3186, + "probability": 0.319, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.30760000000000004, + "probability": 0.3066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.1681, + "probability": 0.1612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -325,8 +325,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "119", - "numforecasters": "104", + "numforecasts": "121", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -373,32 +373,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0479, + "probability": 0.048600000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3015, + "probability": 0.30269999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3299, + "probability": 0.3281, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.1956, + "probability": 0.1957, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.1252, + "probability": 0.1249, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "118", - "numforecasters": "109", + "numforecasts": "119", + "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -409,32 +409,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 26,000", - "probability": 0.044199999999999996, + "probability": 0.0426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0919, + "probability": 0.0885, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000", - "probability": 0.21539999999999998, + "probability": 0.2148, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000", - "probability": 0.3546, + "probability": 0.35259999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 32,000", - "probability": 0.2938, + "probability": 0.3015, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "44", - "numforecasters": "38", + "numforecasts": "45", + "numforecasters": "39", "stars": 2 }, { @@ -445,22 +445,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 800", - "probability": 0.1307, + "probability": 0.1276, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 800 and 4,000", - "probability": 0.4285, + "probability": 0.4341, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", - "probability": 0.3003, + "probability": 0.29960000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", - "probability": 0.1103, + "probability": 0.1085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -469,8 +469,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", - "numforecasters": "98", + "numforecasts": "125", + "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -517,17 +517,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "111", - "numforecasters": "78", + "numforecasts": "113", + "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -609,8 +609,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "271", - "numforecasters": "178", + "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasters": "180", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -621,27 +621,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.038599999999999995, + "probability": 0.038, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.109, + "probability": 0.10779999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2447, + "probability": 0.24239999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6077, + "probability": 0.6118, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", - "numforecasters": "126", + "numforecasts": "202", + "numforecasters": "127", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -652,32 +652,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.1323, + "probability": 0.1315, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19269999999999998, + "probability": 0.1916, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.2644, + "probability": 0.2637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%", - "probability": 0.2772, + "probability": 0.2802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 80%", - "probability": 0.1334, + "probability": 0.133, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "187", - "numforecasters": "153", + "numforecasts": "189", + "numforecasters": "154", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -688,32 +688,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 15%", - "probability": 0.062400000000000004, + "probability": 0.063, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1565, + "probability": 0.1637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%", - "probability": 0.3235, + "probability": 0.3233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", - "probability": 0.2999, + "probability": 0.295, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 21%", - "probability": 0.1578, + "probability": 0.155, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "117", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -733,7 +733,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", + "numforecasts": "162", "numforecasters": "124", "stars": 3 }, diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.csv b/data/elicit-questions.csv index c11c415..8f62d45 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.csv +++ b/data/elicit-questions.csv @@ -17,16 +17,16 @@ "How vivid is your taste imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25726190476190475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7427380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1 "How vivid is your smell imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25414634146341464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7458536585365854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,82,1 "Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2538095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7461904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,84,1 -"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,87,1 "How frequently do you think in words?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7812790697674419,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21872093023255812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,86,1 +"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1975862068965517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8024137931034483,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,87,1 "How good is your memory?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5229113924050633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47708860759493665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1 "Do you have an internal monologue?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8227500000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1772499999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,80,1 "How vivid is your touch imagination?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3612658227848101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6387341772151899,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,79,1 "How much control do you have over your mind?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45592105263157895,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5440789473684211,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,76,1 "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42764705882352944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5723529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,85,1 "Trump will win a second term","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.462027027027027,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.537972972972973,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,74,1 -"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,66,1 "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24506666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7549333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,75,1 +"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3156060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6843939393939393,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,66,1 "Will the post ""Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong"" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20""Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong""%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8951807228915662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10481927710843375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,83,1 "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04367647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9563235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,68,1 "Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6021951219512195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3978048780487805,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,41,1 @@ -38,315 +38,315 @@ "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007941176470588234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.36911764705882355,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6308823529411764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "The Pope will be assassinated.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0303125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 +"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47382978723404257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261702127659574,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 +"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1 """There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin""%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9709090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1 -"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38967741935483874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6103225806451613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 -"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5493617021276596,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45063829787234044,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 +"No military draft in the United States before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9027272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09727272727272729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08806451612903227,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9119354838709677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,31,1 "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17874999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08678571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9132142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 +"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 "California will secede from the United States before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006764705882352942,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9932352941176471,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4023809523809524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5976190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,42,1 +"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2479310344827586,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7520689655172415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 "Trump wins Nobel","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10552631578947368,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8944736842105263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,38,1 -"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.002307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9976923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8055769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19442307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,52,1 "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018846153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9811538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8055769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19442307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,52,1 "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4684375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5315624999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 -"...be an environmental disaster.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2637037037037037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7362962962962962,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 """I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9030769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"The Singularity will occur by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35119999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6488,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5855882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41441176470588237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07461538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9253846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2439285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7560714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 +"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 "Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20""Inverse%20AlphaFold""%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33909090909090905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6609090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 -"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19347826086956524,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8065217391304348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 +"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6226923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37730769230769234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8411111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15888888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31120000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6084375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39156250000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 -"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 -"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2885185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7114814814814815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,39,1 "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13119999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8688,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7019047619047619,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2980952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.994090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.005909090909090975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3745833333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6254166666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 +"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20482758620689656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7951724137931034,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 +"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5815384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,39,1 "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7363999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 -"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 -"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 -"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15333333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04739130434782608,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9526086956521739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21636363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7836363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3109375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6890625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 +"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2782857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7217142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 +"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18571428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,28,1 +"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34127659574468083,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6587234042553192,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,47,1 +"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07454545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9254545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8831818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"Google will survive for 15 more years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8838095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20""more%20dakka"",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20""more%20dakka""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20523809523809525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7947619047619048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 +"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0695,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5694285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4305714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 -"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4704761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5295238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6031428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,35,1 +"United States will invade Australia and take over","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02210526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9778947368421053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 +"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8313636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16863636363636358,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3638095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6361904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8295,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8088888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45799999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7243478260869566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2756521739130434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 +"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13249999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7484999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25150000000000006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1 -"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.648,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.352,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,40,1 +"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20""Clogged%20drainpipe""%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6434000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3565999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,50,1 +"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8340740740740741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16592592592592592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 +"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13080000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6427777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35722222222222233,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6754545454545454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3245454545454546,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8795238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5177777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4822222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13080000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8340740740740741,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16592592592592592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 -"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9668181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 +"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20""a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true"".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3281481481481482,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6718518518518518,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,27,1 +"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 +"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 +"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26894736842105266,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4717391304347826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5282608695652173,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 -"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8395238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16047619047619055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08388888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9161111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.017222222222222222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9827777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6933333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30666666666666675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12789473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8721052631578947,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2161904761904762,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7838095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,21,1 -"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.018000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,23,1 +"aliens invade earth in 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.009444444444444445,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9905555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5777777777777778,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42222222222222217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0811764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9188235294117647,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35526315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6447368421052632,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7770588235294117,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2229411764705883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9531578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04684210526315791,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4288888888888889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5711111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20""in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19105263157894736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8089473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6533333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.049,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"US presidents term limits abolished","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02235294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9776470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5689655172413793,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43103448275862066,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 -"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4064,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5852941176470589,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6647058823529411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33529411764705885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.294375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.705625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7394117647058823,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2605882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7811764705882354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21882352941176464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.23450000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 +"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.118125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.881875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20""World%20War%20III""%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20""allies""%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.933125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06687500000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 -"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5517647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44823529411764707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"C still widely in use in the 2020s","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9353333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06466666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03705882352941177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9629411764705882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43473684210526314,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5652631578947369,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1448,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8552,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.926875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.073125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally. &binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.111875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.888125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 -"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17394444444444446,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8260555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.938,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.""%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,20,1 "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47388888888888886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5261111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7178571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20""Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow"".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9214285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,36,1 -"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 -"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 -"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3026315789473684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6973684210526316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8717647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12823529411764711,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08785714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9121428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05941176470588236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9405882352941176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09823529411764706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9017647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,17,1 +"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8220000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17799999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11733333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8826666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2978571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7021428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4446153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5553846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.853125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14687499999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2764285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7235714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.320625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6793750000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1336842105263158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8663157894736842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.040769230769230766,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20""SETI%20Winter""%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7389473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2610526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"ETI is AGI","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8461111111111111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15388888888888885,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40842105263157896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.591578947368421,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,18,1 +"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20""spaceship""%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5135714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09466666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9053333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20""Pilotless""%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6271428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3728571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Humanity still a thing in 2036","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1469230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8530769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44153846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5584615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20""How%20to%20create%20a%20mind"")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7324999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9507692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3830769230769231,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6169230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8146153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.106875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.893125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 -"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 -"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.955,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Trump dies of COVID-19","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,32,1 +"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""The%20Essential%20Workers""%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4026666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5973333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11076923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8892307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"10 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9158333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,36,1 +"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9466666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 -"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5075757575757576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,33,1 "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8583333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4310526315789474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5689473684210526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,19,1 +"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5246666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4753333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8683333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1316666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.""%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33461538461538465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3707692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6292307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24333333333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03833333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9616666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 +"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013076923076923076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9869230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.027333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9726666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9535714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"100 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.007931034482758621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9920689655172413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,29,1 "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14333333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8566666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4607142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5392857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.46692307692307694,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.533076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20""train%20it%20away""?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6315384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3684615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9228571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.696923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.303076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8407142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.006,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6083333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07642857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9235714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21076923076923082,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5107142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4892857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3358333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6641666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 -"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 -"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 -"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,26,1 -"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 -"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7525,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8921428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6679999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,15,1 +"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,25,1 +"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4081818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5918181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,22,1 "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2809090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7190909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20""same""?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20""final%20being""?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26272727272727275,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7372727272727273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9458333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08923076923076924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.""%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7927272727272727,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Trump wins the 2020 election.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4753846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5246153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44083333333333335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5591666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4153846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 """At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5621428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43785714285714283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10181818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8981818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20""Grognor""%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4592307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5407692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6592857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34071428571428575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 +"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.543076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9623076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4307692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5692307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.024166666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9758333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.40909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10285714285714287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8971428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Trump will run for president in 2024","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.20384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7961538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5269230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47307692307692306,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6866666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31333333333333324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4314285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7783333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22166666666666668,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6836363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21272727272727274,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7872727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23377083333333332,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7662291666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,24,1 +"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6778571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32214285714285706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7157142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 -"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5557142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4442857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7091666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33090909090909093,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31384615384615383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6861538461538461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9646153846153847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45307692307692304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.546923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9325,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.0675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"'President Mike Pence'","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.140625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.859375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38636363636363635,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6136363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2366666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7633333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones""%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7516666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2483333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"50 million","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.016470588235294115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9835294117647059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,34,1 +"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=""within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.""%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6481818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3518181818181819,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7791666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20""do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation""?%20They%20answer%20""yes"".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17923076923076922,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8207692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9290909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.060909090909090906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9390909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6653846153846155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.413,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.587,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.261,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.739,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20""anarchist""%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3681818181818182,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6318181818181818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4107692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5892307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09357142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9064285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2907692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7092307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 -"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.217,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.783,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27785714285714286,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7221428571428572,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65625,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,16,1 +"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.467,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5329999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search="".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.""%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13083333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8691666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.10916666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8908333333333334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13142857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8685714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 +"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.309,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6910000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "WWIII starts before 2030.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9114285714285715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 -"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5690909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4309090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44166666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5583333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"EU to dissolve by 2040.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6054545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20""very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?""&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2963636363636364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7036363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"“China will break apart by 2030”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24600000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.754,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11461538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8853846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.013636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9863636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17300000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21099999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.750909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.24909090909090903,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20 By%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7709999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2290000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.155,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 +"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 +"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3463636363636363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6536363636363637,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 +"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.796,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8790909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26384615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7361538461538462,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,13,1 +"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9042857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,14,1 "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.198,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5272727272727272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4727272727272728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,11,1 -"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.958,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07416666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9258333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 -"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.556,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44399999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 -"homosexuality criminalized in the US","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,10,1 \ No newline at end of file +"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021","https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0","Elicit","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7066666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,12,1 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/elicit-questions.json b/data/elicit-questions.json index b7202c6..8440a91 100644 --- a/data/elicit-questions.json +++ b/data/elicit-questions.json @@ -359,26 +359,6 @@ "numforecasters": 67, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1975862068965517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8024137931034483, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 87, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -399,6 +379,26 @@ "numforecasters": 66, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1975862068965517, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8024137931034483, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasters": 66, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "How good is your memory?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -519,26 +519,6 @@ "numforecasters": 54, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3156060606060606, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6843939393939393, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 66, - "numforecasters": 52, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -559,6 +539,26 @@ "numforecasters": 52, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3156060606060606, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6843939393939393, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasters": 52, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -779,6 +779,26 @@ "numforecasters": 30, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38967741935483874, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6103225806451613, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -799,6 +819,26 @@ "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -840,43 +880,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.5493617021276596, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.45063829787234044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 40, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38967741935483874, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6103225806451613, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 31, - "numforecasters": 29, + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -899,26 +919,6 @@ "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5493617021276596, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45063829787234044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -979,6 +979,26 @@ "numforecasters": 27, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.002307692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9976923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1019,6 +1039,26 @@ "numforecasters": 26, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "...be an environmental disaster.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2479310344827586, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7520689655172415, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Trump wins Nobel", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1040,23 +1080,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.002307692307692308, + "probability": 0.018846153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9976923076923077, + "probability": 0.9811538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 26, + "numforecasters": 25, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -1079,26 +1119,6 @@ "numforecasters": 25, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.018846153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9811538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 25, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1120,23 +1140,23 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "...be an environmental disaster.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2637037037037037, + "probability": 0.09692307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7362962962962962, + "probability": 0.9030769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 27, - "numforecasters": 24, + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -1159,26 +1179,6 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09692307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9030769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1199,26 +1199,6 @@ "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2439285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7560714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 28, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1240,22 +1220,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6226923076923077, + "probability": 0.2439285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37730769230769234, + "probability": 0.7560714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19347826086956524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8065217391304348, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1300,22 +1300,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19347826086956524, + "probability": 0.6226923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8065217391304348, + "probability": 0.37730769230769234, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1359,26 +1359,6 @@ "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20482758620689656, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7951724137931034, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 29, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1399,46 +1379,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3745833333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6254166666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7019047619047619, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2980952380952381, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1459,26 +1399,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5815384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41846153846153844, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 39, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1499,6 +1419,26 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7019047619047619, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2980952380952381, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1519,6 +1459,66 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3745833333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6254166666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20482758620689656, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7951724137931034, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5815384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41846153846153844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1539,126 +1539,6 @@ "numforecasters": 21, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11681818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8831818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3109375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6890625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21636363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7836363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34127659574468083, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6587234042553192, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2782857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7217142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 35, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07454545454545454, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9254545454545454, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1679,26 +1559,6 @@ "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8838095238095238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11619047619047618, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1720,23 +1580,183 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0695, + "probability": 0.21636363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9305, + "probability": 0.7836363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3109375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6890625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2782857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7217142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8142857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18571428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34127659574468083, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6587234042553192, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11681818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8831818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -1760,42 +1780,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.0695, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9305, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13249999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1819,6 +1819,26 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4704761904761905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5295238095238095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1840,18 +1860,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4704761904761905, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5295238095238095, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1880,22 +1900,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7243478260869566, + "probability": 0.542, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2756521739130434, + "probability": 0.45799999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -1939,26 +1959,6 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1705, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8295, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1980,42 +1980,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8088888888888889, + "probability": 0.7243478260869566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19111111111111112, + "probability": 0.2756521739130434, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 23, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.542, + "probability": 0.8675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45799999999999996, + "probability": 0.13249999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2039,6 +2039,26 @@ "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.648, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.352, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2059,6 +2079,86 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8340740740740741, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16592592592592592, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13080000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2079,26 +2179,6 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3281481481481482, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6718518518518518, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 27, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2119,26 +2199,6 @@ "numforecasters": 18, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.648, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.352, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 40, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2180,38 +2240,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8692, + "probability": 0.3281481481481482, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13080000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8340740740740741, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16592592592592592, + "probability": 0.6718518518518518, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2220,43 +2260,163 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 18, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "probability": 0.2161904761904762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "probability": 0.7838095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 18, + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6933333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30666666666666675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.018000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.982, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8395238095238095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16047619047619055, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -2299,46 +2459,6 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.009444444444444445, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9905555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8395238095238095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16047619047619055, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2360,38 +2480,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3095, + "probability": 0.009444444444444445, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.017222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827777777777778, + "probability": 0.9905555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2399,106 +2499,6 @@ "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6933333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30666666666666675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2161904761904762, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7838095238095237, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.018000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.982, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2519,6 +2519,46 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4288888888888889, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5711111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2539,26 +2579,6 @@ "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.049, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2620,42 +2640,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04125, + "probability": 0.19105263157894736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95875, + "probability": 0.8089473684210526, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "US presidents term limits abolished", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02235294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9776470588235294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, @@ -2680,243 +2680,43 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4288888888888889, + "probability": 0.049, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5711111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19105263157894736, - 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"numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "US presidents term limits abolished", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "probability": 0.02235294117647059, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "probability": 0.9776470588235294, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7811764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21882352941176464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8552, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.118125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.881875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.294375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.705625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6647058823529411, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33529411764705885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1 }, { @@ -2939,26 +2739,6 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5936, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4064, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2980,18 +2760,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "probability": 0.5936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "probability": 0.4064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5852941176470589, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3000,18 +2800,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.926875, + "probability": 0.6647058823529411, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.073125, + "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.294375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.705625, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3039,6 +2859,66 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7811764705882354, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21882352941176464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7655, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.23450000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.118125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.881875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3059,6 +2939,226 @@ "numforecasters": 15, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43473684210526314, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5652631578947369, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8552, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.926875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.073125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.111875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.888125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3100,58 +3200,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09823529411764706, + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9017647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3026315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6973684210526316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3160,78 +3220,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8220000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3260,38 +3260,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11733333333333333, + "probability": 0.07857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8826666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08785714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9121428571428571, + "probability": 0.9214285714285715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3300,42 +3280,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.3026315789473684, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.6973684210526316, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.111875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.888125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3359,6 +3319,26 @@ "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08785714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9121428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3380,58 +3360,58 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "probability": 0.09823529411764706, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "probability": 0.9017647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, + "probability": 0.8220000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, + "probability": 0.17799999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07857142857142857, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9214285714285715, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3440,38 +3420,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "10 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "probability": 0.11733333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "probability": 0.8826666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 36, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48642857142857143, + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3480,18 +3460,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1469230769230769, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8530769230769231, + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3500,102 +3480,42 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "ETI is AGI", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "probability": 0.04923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "probability": 0.9507692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06625, + "probability": 0.106875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93375, + "probability": 0.893125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40842105263157896, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.591578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7389473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2610526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3620,98 +3540,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44153846153846155, + "probability": 0.853125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5584615384615385, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11076923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8892307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9466666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.320625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "probability": 0.14687499999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3720,38 +3560,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3375, + "probability": 0.14615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.040769230769230766, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "probability": 0.8538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3780,38 +3600,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "probability": 0.320625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7021428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.853125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14687499999999998, + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3839,6 +3639,126 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.040769230769230766, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7389473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2610526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40842105263157896, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.591578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3880,18 +3800,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.1469230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "probability": 0.8530769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3900,22 +3820,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.045, + "probability": 0.44153846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.955, + "probability": 0.5584615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, @@ -3939,26 +3859,6 @@ "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04923076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9507692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4000,38 +3900,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "probability": 0.045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.106875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.893125, + "probability": 0.955, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4040,42 +3920,142 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, + "probability": 0.06625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, + "probability": 0.93375, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.3375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.6625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11076923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8892307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4099,6 +4079,26 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8583333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4119,26 +4119,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6653846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33461538461538465, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4159,66 +4139,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9535714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4240,18 +4160,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013076923076923076, + "probability": 0.6653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9869230769230769, + "probability": 0.33461538461538465, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4260,22 +4180,82 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "100 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.696923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.303076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5107142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4300,18 +4280,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "probability": 0.6083333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "probability": 0.3916666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4340,38 +4320,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4380,18 +4340,138 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15928571428571428, + "probability": 0.3358333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8407142857142857, + "probability": 0.6641666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9235714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6315384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3684615384615385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.013076923076923076, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9869230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4420,18 +4500,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14166666666666666, + "probability": 0.7892307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8583333333333334, + "probability": 0.21076923076923082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4439,6 +4539,46 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9535714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "100 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4499,26 +4639,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6315384615384615, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3684615384615385, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4540,42 +4660,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.696923076923077, + "probability": 0.15928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.303076923076923, + "probability": 0.8407142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, @@ -4599,86 +4699,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6083333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3916666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9235714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7892307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21076923076923082, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5107142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4892857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4699,386 +4719,6 @@ "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3358333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6641666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4753846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5246153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6481818181818181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3518181818181819, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "50 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9835294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7927272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10285714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8971428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33090909090909093, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6679999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6778571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32214285714285706, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5557142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4442857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5100,178 +4740,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "probability": 0.2475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5918181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7961538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5269230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47307692307692306, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10785714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8921428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4314285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26272727272727275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7372727272727273, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, + "probability": 0.7525, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5300,18 +4780,38 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6866666666666668, + "probability": 0.10785714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5319,6 +4819,86 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2888, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5918181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5339,6 +4919,66 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26272727272727275, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7372727272727273, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9458333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5359,6 +4999,166 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20727272727272728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7927272727272727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4753846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5246153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4153846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5846153846153845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5621428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43785714285714283, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5400,18 +5200,178 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "probability": 0.024166666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "probability": 0.9758333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10285714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7961538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 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"https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4314285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5440,118 +5400,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05416666666666667, + "probability": 0.31636363636363635, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9458333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - 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"platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5621428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43785714285714283, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "probability": 0.6836363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5559,146 +5419,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6592857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34071428571428575, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7091666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31384615384615383, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6861538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5719,26 +5439,6 @@ "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6836363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5760,22 +5460,22 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.024166666666666666, + "probability": 0.6778571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9758333333333333, + "probability": 0.32214285714285706, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, @@ -5800,78 +5500,318 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "probability": 0.5557142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7091666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, + "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "probability": 0.31384615384615383, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "probability": 0.6861538461538461, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, + "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24600000000000002, + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.754, + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10916666666666666, + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8908333333333334, + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9325, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.0675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.140625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.859375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "50 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.016470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9835294117647059, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7791666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5899,326 +5839,6 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13142857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27785714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7221428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.467, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5329999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.261, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.739, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8691666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.309, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6910000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9863636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.750909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24909090909090903, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2963636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44166666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5583333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7791666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.204, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.796, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6239,6 +5859,26 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4309090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6259,6 +5899,26 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.958, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6280,18 +5940,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17300000000000001, + "probability": 0.217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.827, + "probability": 0.783, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6319,6 +5979,26 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.261, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.739, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6359,86 +6039,6 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39454545454545453, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6054545454545455, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09571428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9042857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.789, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21099999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6460,38 +6060,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.6036363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3463636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6536363636363637, + "probability": 0.39636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6520,18 +6100,178 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.217, + "probability": 0.27785714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.783, + "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.467, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5329999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8691666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10916666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8908333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13142857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.309, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6910000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6560,58 +6300,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5690909090909091, + "probability": 0.44166666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4309090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7709999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2290000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.845, + "probability": 0.5583333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6620,18 +6320,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12090909090909091, + "probability": 0.39454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8790909090909091, + "probability": 0.6054545454545455, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6640,78 +6340,18 @@ "stars": 1 }, { - "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "probability": 0.2963636363636364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7361538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4727272727272728, + "probability": 0.7036363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6719,46 +6359,6 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, - { - "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.042, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.958, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, - { - "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9258333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1 - }, { "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6799,6 +6399,146 @@ "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 }, + { + "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24600000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.754, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9258333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.013636363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9863636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.155, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, { "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6818,5 +6558,265 @@ "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17300000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.827, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.789, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21099999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.750909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24909090909090903, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7709999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6536363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5272727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4727272727272728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.204, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12090909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8790909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7361538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9042857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 + }, + { + "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv index a8b8899..91761b3 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.csv @@ -1,232 +1,225 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). +"Will the US FDA approve the drug molnupiravir for use to treat COVID-19 before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1963-will-the-us-fda-approve-the-drug-molnupiravir-for-use-to-treat-covid-19-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Molnupiravir, a drug being developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, has shown positive results in clinical trials in combatting COVID-19 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-treatments-for-covid-19-are-on-the-way), [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/health/covid-19-pill-preliminary-testing-dr-marc-siegel), [Merck](https://www.merck.com/news/ridgeback-biotherapeutics-and-merck-announce-preliminary-findings-from-a-phase-2a-trial-of-investigational-covid-19-therapeutic-molnupiravir/)). “Compassionate use"" and ""emergency use"" authorizations would count ([FDA](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization)). +","40",3 +"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. +","54",3 +"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). ","32",3 -"How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 31 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1960-how-many-total-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-for-brazil-as-of-31-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 14.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 19.0 million"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As COVID-19 cases are dropping in many parts of the world, Brazil is seeing sustained increases amidst domestic political acrimony over the response ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/10/americas/brazil-variant-covid-icu-crisis-intl/index.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/av/56289561)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/)). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 31 July 2021 will be assessed on 4 August 2021. -","36",3 -"What will be Robinhood Markets' end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1961-what-will-be-robinhood-markets-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $25 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $55 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite controversy over trading limits surrounding a Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" in January, online stock trading firm Robinhood is reportedly pursuing its public debut ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/robinhood-chooses-the-nasdaq-for-its-ipo-sources-say.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/after-gamestop-debacle-robinhood-faces-uncertain-public-offering-1573549), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-27/robinhood-said-to-plan-confidential-ipo-filing-as-soon-as-march), [Wealth Daily](https://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/a-march-ipo-for-robinhood-/98530)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. Whether Robinhood goes public via an IPO, direct listing, or a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) would be immaterial ([Investopedia (IPO v. Direct Listing)](https://www.investopedia.com/investing/difference-between-ipo-and-direct-listing/), [Investopedia (SPACs)](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spac.asp)). -","21",3 "Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1962-will-a-boeing-starliner-spacecraft-dock-with-the-international-space-station-iss-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After a technical failure marred a test flight in December 2019, Boeing is pushing ahead to get its Starliner into orbit to dock with the ISS ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/there-will-be-lots-of-new-space-missions-in-2021), [Boeing](https://www.boeing.com/space/starliner/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-space-exploration-boeing/boeings-botched-starliner-test-flirted-with-catastrophic-failure-nasa-panel-idUSKBN20106A), [Space.com](https://www.space.com/boeing-2nd-starliner-test-flight-launch-delayed)). -","28",3 -"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. -","45",3 -"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. -","84",3 +","37",3 +"What will be Coinbase's end-of-day market capitalization on its first day of public trading?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1959-what-will-be-coinbase-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-on-its-first-day-of-public-trading","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase announced that it would go public through a direct listing in January, with its initial SEC registration published in late February ([Coinbase Blog](https://blog.coinbase.com/coinbase-announces-proposed-direct-listing-3a52c4298ccc), [SEC](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679788/000162828021003168/coinbaseglobalincs-1.htm), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/coinbase-going-public), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/coinbase-valued-100-billion-direct-listing-9b43e316-7ff7-4f6a-a1db-4dc2481a93ee.html)). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day market capitalization figure reported by Bloomberg. +","47",3 +"Before 1 January 2022, will North Korea detonate a nuclear device and/or launch an ICBM with an estimated range of at least 10,000km?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1957-before-1-january-2022-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device-and-or-launch-an-icbm-with-an-estimated-range-of-at-least-10-000km","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only detonate a nuclear device"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only launch an ICBM"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Eyes are on North Korea to see how it may set a new tone with the Biden administration ([Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/biden-north-korea-nuclear-activity-b1811112.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa/analysis-biden-faces-calls-to-jumpstart-north-korea-talks-with-more-pragmatic-goals-idUSKCN2AW0EH), [VOA News](https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/biden-mulls-north-korea-some-urge-arms-control-approach), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689)). For the purposes of this question, the estimated range of a launched intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) will be determined using data and reporting provided by the Center for Strategic and International Studies ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/dprk/)). If an estimate provided is a range (e.g., between 9,000km and 11,000km), the high end of the range will be used to determine if the launch qualifies. An ICBM will be deemed to have launched if there is credible reporting that the missile left the ground. An otherwise qualifying missile launch would count irrespective of the missile being purportedly configured to act as a space launch vehicle. +","90",3 "Will Robinhood receive a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before 1 October 2021 related to trading limits imposed on 28 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1958-will-robinhood-receive-a-wells-notice-from-the-securities-and-exchange-commission-sec-before-1-october-2021-related-to-trading-limits-imposed-on-28-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A Reddit-fueled ""short squeeze"" on shares of Gamestop and other companies led to online trading firm Robinhood to impose trading limits on various stocks in late January ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/30/gamestop-reddit-and-robinhood-a-full-recap-of-the-historic-retail-trading-mania-on-wall-street.html), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhood-backlash-heres-what-you-should-know-about-the-gamestop-stock-controversy/)). Many Robinhood customers were angered by the move, and Congress has held hearings on the circumstances surrounding the trading limits ([Business Insider](https://www.businessinsider.com/map-reveals-robinhood-twitter-wallstreetbets-users-furious-gamestop-gme-amc-2021-1), [CNET](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/robinhoods-role-in-gamestop-stock-spike-scrutinized-by-congress/)). A Wells notice ""is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker"" ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/wells_notice)). -","41",3 -"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. -","93",3 -"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -","72",3 -"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -","170",3 -"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. +","42",3 +"How many cases of COVID-19 will the state of Texas report for the month of April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1956-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-the-state-of-texas-report-for-the-month-of-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""550,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March 2021, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced that various COVID-19 public health measures would end on 10 March 2021, with criticism over the decision following ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/texas-governor-end-mask-mandate-businesses-reopen-full/story?id=76200647), [Dallas Morning News](https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/03/03/cdc-chief-and-white-house-decry-texas-gov-greg-abbotts-decision-to-lift-covid-restrictions/), [Texas.gov](https://tsbde.texas.gov/78i8ljhbj/EO-GA-34-opening-Texas-response-to-COVID-disaster-IMAGE-03-02-2021.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using cases (confirmed plus probable) data as reported by the Texas Department of State Health Services (TX DSHS) for the month of April 2021 ([TX DSHS - COVID Dashboard](https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83) [click “Trends”], [TX DSHS - COVID Raw Data](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/coronavirus/TexasCOVID19CaseCountData.xlsx) [Excel file], [TX DSHS - Probable Cases](https://www.dshs.state.tx.us/news/releases/2020/20201211.aspx)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 May 2021. +","103",3 +"How many U.S. adult and pediatric hospital admissions with confirmed COVID-19 cases will there be for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1952-how-many-u-s-adult-and-pediatric-hospital-admissions-with-confirmed-covid-19-cases-will-there-be-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 15,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using hospital admissions data as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Services' ""COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State Timeseries"" for the week ending 27 March 2021 ([Healthdata.gov](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state-timeseries)). The total will be calculated by adding data from two columns, ""previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed"" and ""previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed,"" inclusive of the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and U.S. Virgin Islands. As these are ""previous day"" data, we will use the data dated 22 March 2021 through 28 March 2021, inclusive. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +","78",3 +"How many confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1954-how-many-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 100,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""900,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +","193",3 +"How many people in the U.S. will have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine as of 31 March 2021, according to the CDC?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1955-how-many-people-in-the-u-s-will-have-received-one-or-more-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-as-of-31-march-2021-according-to-the-cdc","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 70,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 115,000,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 vaccination data as reported by the CDC (updated daily) for “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” ([CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends)). The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For the purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. NOTE 8 March 2021: We received a clarification request regarding when we will access the data on this question. For greater clarity, we will evaluate the data the morning of 7 April 2021.  -","251",3 -"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. -","158",3 +","280",3 +"How many deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the U.S. will be reported for the week ending 27 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1953-how-many-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-be-reported-for-the-week-ending-27-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20,000 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using COVID-19 deaths data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 21 March 2021 through 27 March 2021, inclusive ([JHU CSSE GitHub](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv)). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 20 March 2021 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 27 March 2021 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed no sooner than 4 April 2021. +","175",3 "Will the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) military expenditure as a percentage of GDP be greater in 2021 than it was in 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1951-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-s-prc-s-military-expenditure-as-a-percentage-of-gdp-be-greater-in-2021-than-it-was-in-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data provided by SIPRI ([SIPRI](https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex), see the ""Data for all countries"" spreadsheet under the ""Excel file"" section). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2021 and resolved when the data are first released, typically in the spring of the following year. For 2019, SIPRI reported that the PRC's military expenditure as a percentage of GDP was 1.8886% (""Share of GDP sheet,"" cell BU99). NOTE 3 March 2021: For resolution, we will compare the data for 2021 and for 2019 as they are reported in 2022. -","120",3 -"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). -","67",3 +","121",3 +"Between 26 January 2021 and 31 December 2021, how many members of the Politburo will Chinese state media announce have been arrested and/or expelled from their posts?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1949-between-26-january-2021-and-31-december-2021-how-many-members-of-the-politburo-will-chinese-state-media-announce-have-been-arrested-and-or-expelled-from-their-posts","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China’s Politburo is the primary policy-making and executive committee of the Chinese Communist Party ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13904441), [Gov.cn](http://english.www.gov.cn/news/top_news/2017/10/25/content_281475920736982.htm), [Brookings](https://www.brookings.edu/interactives/chinas-new-politburo-standing-committee/)). Various Politburo members have been arrested and/or expelled in recent years, which was seen by many observers as the result of Xi Jinping consolidating power in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-41691917), [Tribune India](https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/comment/xi-jinping-chinas-chairman-of-everything-199980)). +","68",3 "Before 15 August 2021, will Alexei Navalny be convicted on any fraud charges related to his activities with his non-profit organizations?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1945-before-15-august-2021-will-alexei-navalny-be-convicted-on-any-fraud-charges-related-to-his-activities-with-his-non-profit-organizations","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny is already facing various criminal charges and sentences, which supporters contend is an effort to silence his criticism of President Putin and the Russian government ([Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/russia-alexei-navalny-returns-to-court-for-slander-case/a-56464613), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/02/as-it-happened-navalny-sentenced-to-2-years-and-8-months-in-penal-colony-a72803)). In December 2020, the Investigative Committee, Russia's main criminal investigative committee, accused Navalny of fraud related to his use of funds from his various non-profit organizations ([Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation](https://sledcom.ru/news/item/1526952/) [in Russian], [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/29/russia-opens-fraud-probe-against-navalny-a72522)). -","425",3 +","437",3 "For how many weeks will Adam Grant's ""Think Again"" be on the New York Times Best Sellers list for Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1944-for-how-many-weeks-will-adam-grant-s-think-again-be-on-the-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-for-combined-print-e-book-nonfiction-between-21-february-2021-and-11-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 4 and 8"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 9 and 13"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 14 and 18"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 18"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Author Adam Grant's latest book, ""Think Again: The Power of Knowing What You Don't Know,"" was released on 2 February 2021 ([Adamgrant.net](https://www.adamgrant.net/book/think-again/)). The outcome will be determined using the New York Times' Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction Best Sellers list ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/)). NOTE 26 February 2021: Any appearance of Think Again on lists dated between 21 February 2021 and 11 July 2021 would count. -","310",3 +","321",3 "Will the percentage of Global Business Travel Association survey respondents planning to resume international business travel in the near future (next 1-3 months) reach 20% or higher before September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1947-will-the-percentage-of-global-business-travel-association-survey-respondents-planning-to-resume-international-business-travel-in-the-near-future-next-1-3-months-reach-20-or-higher-before-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) has been conducting rolling surveys of companies around the world on the state of business travel during the COVID-19 pandemic ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/some-executives-cant-wait-to-hit-the-road-again), [GTBA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). The outcome will be determined using GBTA's COVID-19 Member Poll Results and would close upon the first survey released in August 2021, if not sooner ([GBTA](https://www.gbta.org/research-tools/covid-19-member-polls)). Among companies that have canceled or suspended most or all international trips, 7% planned to resume international business travel in the near future according to the February 2021 survey ([GBTA - Poll Results 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-results-021821.pdf), see questions 20 and 21, [GTBA - Key Highlights 18 February 2021](https://www.gbta.org/Portals/0/Documents/gbta-poll-key-highlights-021821.pdf), see infographics on pages 4, 7, and 8). -","326",3 +","334",3 "In NCAA v. Alston, will the Supreme Court rule that NCAA rules restricting education-related benefits for student-athletes violate federal antitrust law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1946-in-ncaa-v-alston-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-ncaa-rules-restricting-education-related-benefits-for-student-athletes-violate-federal-antitrust-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has various rules defining the eligibility of many athletes to participate in college sports, including caps on education-based benefits ([NCAA](https://www.ncaa.org/about/student-athlete-eligibility)). Certain athletes sued claiming that such caps violate federal antitrust law ([CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/breaking-down-the-ncaas-forthcoming-supreme-court-battle-with-its-big-brother-status-and-amateurism-at-stake/), [Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-512)). The athletes prevailed in district court and in the 9th Circuit ([SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/national-collegiate-athletic-association-v-alston/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" Oral arguments are scheduled for 31 March 2021 ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/calendars/MonthlyArgumentCalMarch2021.html)). -","192",3 -"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. -","223",3 +","198",3 +"How many federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US from April 2021 through June 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1948-how-many-federal-firearm-background-checks-will-be-initiated-in-the-us-from-april-2021-through-june-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 8,000,000"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 14,000,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the inauguration of President Biden and Democratic control of Congress, sides in the gun control debate are gearing up but the impact that gun control efforts will have on gun sales remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/attempts-at-tighter-gun-control-laws-will-make-headlines), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/538672-biden-pledges-action-on-guns-amid-resistance), [FOXNews](https://www.foxnews.com/us/fbi-gun-background-check-statistics-firearms)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FBI ([FBI.gov](https://www.fbi.gov/file-repository/nics_firearm_checks_-_month_year.pdf/view)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved when the relevant data for April, May, and June 2021 are first released, typically in July. In January 2021, the FBI reported a record 4,317,804 firearm background checks. +","230",3 "What will be the end-of-day price of Cardano's Ada cryptocurrency on 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1942-what-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-cardano-s-ada-cryptocurrency-on-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $0.50"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.00 but less than $2.50"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $5.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ada is described as a third-generation cryptocurrency, developed in part by the co-founder of Ethereum ([Cardano](https://cardano.org/what-is-ada/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-cardano-ada-everything-you-need-to-know/), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/cardano-ada-price-prediction%3A-what-bullish-experts-are-saying-about-the-cryptocurrency)).The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 1 July 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/cardano)). The last reported price for Ada for 17 February 2021 was $0.934721. -","61",3 -"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). -","139",3 -"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). -","106",3 +","62",3 +"What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1940-what-will-be-the-us-civilian-unemployment-rate-u3-for-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.4%"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 7.1%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US economy continues to push through the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, though the path to recovery may be difficult ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/americas-economy-is-mending-but-recovery-will-come-at-a-cost), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/27/fed-us-economic-recovery-weakening-463190), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/us-economic-recovery-not-charging-ahead-job-openings-report-indicates-1568020)). The outcome will be determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics ([BLS](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000)). The question will be suspended on 31 August 2021 and resolved when the data for August are first released, scheduled for 3 September 2021 ([BLS - Release Schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). +","143",3 +"What will be the closing yield for the 10-year US Treasury on 16 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1943-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-10-year-us-treasury-on-16-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.500 but less than 2.000"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.500"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With progress battling the COVID-19 pandemic continues, interest rates have begun to rise beyond the record lows of 2020 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/17/interest-rates-will-continue-to-rise-but-dont-blame-inflation-economists-say.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/10-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y)). +","107",3 "Will California hold a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1941-will-california-hold-a-recall-election-for-governor-gavin-newsom-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Newsom will be recalled"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There's a large push in California to recall Gov. Newsom for various reasons, including COVID-19 restrictions in the state ([KCRA](https://www.kcra.com/article/california-governor-recall-stands-meeting-goal-gavin-newsom/35527644#), [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/california-could-be-headed-very-different-recall-last-one-n1258093)). This would be only the second gubernatorial recall election in the state's history, with advocates having until 17 March 2021 to obtain the nearly 1.5M signatures needed to put the question on the ballot ([Calmatters.org](https://calmatters.org/explainers/recalling-california-governor-explained/)). The question would close upon an official announcement that an insufficient number of valid signatures were obtained or the holding of the election itself. -","106",3 -"Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-a-dogecoin-on-15-march-2021-be-higher-as-compared-to-the-end-of-day-price-on-15-february-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727. -","255",3 +","109",3 "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither will occur before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using price data as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin)). -","425",3 +","437",3 "Will a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) trade on a US exchange before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1939-will-a-bitcoin-exchange-traded-fund-etf-trade-on-a-us-exchange-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While bitcoin ETFs have been authorized in other jurisdictions, earlier attempts to create one in the US have failed ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/11/bitcoin-etf-could-finally-get-approved-this-year-market-analyst.html), [Canadian Press](https://www.cp24.com/news/canadian-funds-move-forward-with-bitcoin-etfs-after-regulatory-jockeying-1.5309984), [Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/nydig-files-for-bitcoin-etf-adding-to-firms-hoping-2021-is-when-sec-finally-says-yes), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp)). -","68",3 +","69",3 "Before 15 December 2021, will the U.S. either formally seek to join or formally begin renegotiations with signatories regarding the TPP or CPTPP?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1936-before-15-december-2021-will-the-u-s-either-formally-seek-to-join-or-formally-begin-renegotiations-with-signatories-regarding-the-tpp-or-cptpp","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Former President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement (TPP) prior to ratification, and the remaining parties went forward without the U.S. and ratified the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) ([Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/01/25/2017-01845/withdrawal-of-the-united-states-from-the-trans--pacific-partnership-negotiations-and-agreement), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-trans-pacific-partnership-tpp), [Asian Society Policy Institute](https://asiasociety.org/policy-institute/reengaging-asia-pacific-trade-tpp-roadmap-next-us-administration)). -","144",3 +","147",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. officially rejoin the JCPOA?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1935-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-officially-rejoin-the-jcpoa","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Obstacles standing in the way of the U.S. rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) include the issues of current U.S. sanctions against Iran and Iran's resumed production of highly enriched uranium ([Atlantic Council](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/rejoining-the-iran-nuclear-deal-not-so-easy/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-iran-deal/2021/02/05/b968154c-67d7-11eb-886d-5264d4ceb46d_story.html), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/irp/offdocs/nspm/nspm-11.pdf)). -","171",3 +","177",3 "Will the powers of the government of Myanmar cease to be held by the military before 5 February 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1934-will-the-powers-of-the-government-of-myanmar-cease-to-be-held-by-the-military-before-5-february-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 1 February 2021, the military (aka ""Defence Services"") of Myanmar detained various government officials and declared a one-year state of emergency under the constitution ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-military-text/statement-from-myanmar-military-on-state-of-emergency-idUSKBN2A11A2), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55882489), [Myanmar Times](https://www.mmtimes.com/news/myanmar-announces-state-emergency.html).) Per Article 419, the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services ""shall have the right to exercise the powers of legislature, executive and judiciary"" ([Myanmar Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Myanmar_2008.pdf?lang=en)). NOTE 15 February 2021: The Myanmar military currently holds the legislative, executive and judiciary powers of the state. The question would close ""Yes"" if these powers stop being wholly held by the military. -","84",3 +","85",3 "Will there be an act of domestic terrorism in the United States resulting in 10 or more fatalities before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1930-will-there-be-an-act-of-domestic-terrorism-in-the-united-states-resulting-in-10-or-more-fatalities-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the storming of the Capitol Building, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of threats of domestic terrorism ([USA Today](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/2021/01/06/dc-protests-capitol-riot-trump-supporters-electoral-college-stolen-election/6568305002/), [DHS.gov](https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-january-27-2021)). For the purposes of this question, an ""act of domestic terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the Pittsburgh synagogue shooting in 2018, and the El Paso Walmart shooting in 2019. Cyberattacks would not count. -","188",3 +","191",3 "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1931-will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Vladimir Putin has dominated Russian politics since he succeeded Boris Yeltsin as president in 1999 ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Vladimir-Putin)). There has been speculation whether he may step down, even though he's eligible for reelection in 2024 ([Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-denies-putin-stepping-down-leader-due-parkinsons-disease-1545425), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/22/russias-putin-signs-bill-giving-presidents-lifetime-immunity)). -","163",3 +","166",3 "Will SpaceX and/or Virgin Galactic complete a successful space tourist flight before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1928-will-spacex-and-or-virgin-galactic-complete-a-successful-space-tourist-flight-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only SpaceX"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Virgin Galactic"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spaceflight companies SpaceX and Virgin Galactic are both seeking to launch tourists into space in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/01/spacex-to-fly-first-mission-to-space-with-an-all-civilian-crew-later-this-year.html), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-to-resume-spaceshiptwo-test-flights-in-mid-february/)). For the purposes of this question, a ""space tourist flight"" is one that reaches at least 50 miles (80.47 km) of altitude ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46550862), [SpaceNews](https://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-pilots-join-an-exclusive-club-with-faa-astronaut-wings/)). -","157",3 +","159",3 "Will Saudi Arabia diplomatically recognize the State of Israel in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1926-will-saudi-arabia-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Various Arab states recognized Israel in 2020, though Saudi Arabia was not among them ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/10/945033413/morocco-becomes-latest-arab-country-to-normalize-ties-with-israel), [JPost](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/saudi-arabia-israel-normalization-deal-within-one-year-653526)). An announcement by Saudi Arabia would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). -","148",3 +","149",3 "Which team will win the 2021 NBA Championship?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1925-which-team-will-win-the-2021-nba-championship","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Brooklyn Nets"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Clippers"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Los Angeles Lakers"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Milwaukee Bucks"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another team"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Lakers entered the 2020-21 season as the reigning NBA Champions ([NBA](https://www.nba.com/lakers/champions-2020)). The NBA Finals are scheduled to take place in July 2021 ([NBC Sports](https://nba.nbcsports.com/2020/11/28/here-are-the-key-dates-for-the-2020-21-nba-season/)). -","128",3 -"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. -","139",3 -"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. -","103",3 +","130",3 +"Between 5 February 2021 and 31 October 2021, will anti-government protests in Russia result in five or more fatalities?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1929-between-5-february-2021-and-31-october-2021-will-anti-government-protests-in-russia-result-in-five-or-more-fatalities","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has seen growing protests sparked primarily by the arrest and imprisonment of opposition leader Alexei Navalny ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/alexei-navalny-russia-jail-52c598a1929341e955d131fddff0d735), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/05/russia-expels-swedish-polish-german-diplomats-over-navalny-protests-foreign-ministry-a72850)). Fatalities must occur during the question's duration to qualify. +","141",3 +"Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1927-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-india-and-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-1-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions continue to flare along the disputed border between India and China, with lethal clashes in June 2020 ([US News](https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2020-06-16/dozens-killed-as-india-china-face-off-in-first-deadly-clash-in-decades), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112), [Time](https://time.com/5843279/india-china-border/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. +","106",3 "Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1916-will-the-united-states-report-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-31-december-2021-than-will-the-european-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 ([WHO](https://covid19.who.int/table), see 'Deaths - cumulative total', [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries_en#tab-0-1)). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch. -","252",3 +","258",3 "How many vacancies will arise on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1915-how-many-vacancies-will-arise-on-the-u-s-supreme-court-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last vacancy on the Supreme Court occurred when Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away in 2020 ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/100306972/justice-ruth-bader-ginsburg-champion-of-gender-equality-dies-at-87), [Supreme Court](https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx)). For the purposes of this question, any new seats established by Congress would constitute arisen vacancies. -","226",3 -"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. -","136",3 +","232",3 +"What will be the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross for June, July, and August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1920-what-will-be-the-combined-u-s-domestic-theater-box-office-gross-for-june-july-and-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $200 million"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $500 million but less than $1 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $1.75 billion"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The movie industry has seen its box office returns plummet due to the coronavirus pandemic, and there is concern it may never fully recover ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-pandemic-has-shaken-up-the-movie-business), [LA Times](https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2020-12-09/everything-hollywood-lost-during-the-pandemic)). The outcome will be determined by Box Office Mojo with the sum of the ""Cumulative Gross"" column for June, July, and August 2021 ([Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/by-year/2021/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses)). For June, July, and August 2020, the combined U.S. domestic theater box office gross was $39,293,148. +","138",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will the Republic of Chad announce that legislative elections currently scheduled for 24 October 2021 will be postponed or canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1918-before-1-october-2021-will-the-republic-of-chad-announce-that-legislative-elections-currently-scheduled-for-24-october-2021-will-be-postponed-or-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for Chad's legislature, the National Assembly, were last held in 2011, with 2015 elections postponed five times ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/covid-19-will-help-unscrupulous-incumbents-in-african-elections), [Barron's](https://www.barrons.com/news/chad-sets-october-2021-for-delayed-legislative-election-state-radio-01593699304), [Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2020/07/03/tchad-les-legislatives-reportees-depuis-5-ans-fixees-a-octobre-2021_6045040_3212.html) [in French]). ","90",3 "At close of business on 16 June 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 28 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1917-at-close-of-business-on-16-june-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its June meeting is scheduled for 15-16 June 2021. ","83",3 "Will the UN declare that a famine exists in any part of Yemen in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1908-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-yemen-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Years of civil war and other factors have greatly increased food insecurity in Yemen, and the UN and others fear that US policy toward Houthi rebels may exacerbate the problems and lead to famine in the country ([UN](https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/01/1082082), [Radio Canada International](https://www.rcinet.ca/en/2021/01/16/aid-groups-worry-u-s-terrorist-designation-of-yemen-rebels-will-hasten-famine/), [In Depth News](https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/sustainability/food-security-nutrition-sustainable-agriculture/4093-desert-locust-upsurge-continues-to-threaten-food-security-in-the-horn-of-africa)). For general information on how famines are declared, see: [Integrated Food Security Phase Classification](http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-website/alerts-archive/issue-24/en/), [NPR](http://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2017/02/23/516642447/who-declares-a-famine-and-what-does-that-actually-mean). -","190",3 +","193",3 "Will Russia conduct a flight test of an RS-28 Sarmat ICBM before 1 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1912-will-russia-conduct-a-flight-test-of-an-rs-28-sarmat-icbm-before-1-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Russia has been developing a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the RS-28 Sarmat, for years ([TASS](https://tass.com/defense/1236575), [Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110579/Russia-planning-flight-test-new-missile-capable-destroying-area-size-France.html)). Russia reportedly planned for five flight tests in 2020, but none were conducted ([CSIS](https://missilethreat.csis.org/russia-to-deploy-sarmat-icbm-in-2021/)). Whether the flight test is deemed successful is immaterial. -","136",3 +","140",3 "Will Chinese businessman Jack Ma physically appear in public outside of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1909-will-chinese-businessman-jack-ma-physically-appear-in-public-outside-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-prc-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Alibaba founder Jack Ma made his first public appearance on 20 January 2021 after three months since an October 2020 event in Shanghai where he was critical of Chinese regulators ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/china-alibaba-jack-ma/alibabas-jack-ma-makes-first-public-appearance-in-three-months-idINKBN29P0CV), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2021/01/08/954046428/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-has-fallen-off-the-radar-here-are-some-clues-why), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/24/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-on-ant-group-ipo-pricing.html)). An early January report indicated that Ma wasn't missing, but rather ""lying low"" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/alibaba-founder-jack-ma-is-laying-low-for-the-time-being-not-missing.html), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/jack-ma-missing-billionaire-video-alibaba-1558672)). For the purposes of this question, both Hong Kong and Macau are considered to be parts of the PRC. -","228",3 +","236",3 "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count. Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021? Información adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un ""uno a uno"" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a8cbc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6dbe8cfc7c7ccc2ddcccfc5cdc6dc86cbc7c597dbddcac2cdcbdc95f9ddcddbdcc1c7c68d9a98ebc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","344",3 -"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" -","328",3 -"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. -","348",3 +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","349",3 +"When will the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) report 1.1 million or more total cases of COVID-19 in Canada?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1914-when-will-the-public-health-agency-of-canada-phac-report-1-1-million-or-more-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-canada","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","COVID-19 cases in Canada jumped with the onset of winter, and officials are working to get the outbreak under control ([CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-covid19-canada-world-january21-2021-1.5881761)). The outcome will be determined based on data provided by PHAC ([PHAC](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html)). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the "".CSV"" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data (""numtoday"") associated with daily entries for ""Canada"" under ""prname."" +","336",3 +"How many U.S. states will have an infection rate of 1.0 or greater for COVID-19 as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1913-how-many-u-s-states-will-have-an-infection-rate-of-1-0-or-greater-for-covid-19-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""7 or fewer"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 8 and 14"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 15 and 21"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 22 and 28"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The infection rate (also known as Rt) ""is the estimated number of new people each COVID-positive person will infect"" ([COVID Act Now - Glossary](https://covidactnow.org/glossary#infection-rate)). The outcome will be determined using data from [covidactnow.org](https://covidactnow.org) at approximately 5:00PM ET on 31 March 2021. See the table ""Compare,"" set to ""States,"" under ""INFECTION RATE."" As of 19 January 2021, 19 states had an infection rate at or above a 1.0. For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state. +","369",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1910-before-1-january-2022-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. -","150",3 +","151",3 "Will the Scottish National Party win a majority of seats in the next Scottish Parliament election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1904-will-the-scottish-national-party-win-a-majority-of-seats-in-the-next-scottish-parliament-election","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Scottish Parliament election is scheduled to be held on 6 May 2021 ([Edinburgh Live](https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/covid-scotland-nicola-sturgeon-says-19564859), [Parliament.scot](https://www.parliament.scot/visitandlearn/96259.aspx), [Parliament.scot - Current State of the Parties](https://www.parliament.scot/msps/12450.aspx)). First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party and opponent of Brexit, is seeking a strong result in the election to build momentum for a new referendum on Scottish independence from the United Kingdom ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54879211)). -","242",3 -"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). +","244",3 +"Will Nicaragua diplomatically recognize the People's Republic of China before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1903-will-nicaragua-diplomatically-recognize-the-people-s-republic-of-china-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent decades, many countries have ceased to recognize the Republic of China (ROC), commonly known as Taiwan, in favor of recognition of the People's Republic of China (PRC). A handful of countries continue to recognize the ROC, including Nicaragua ([Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [Taipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). An announcement by Nicaragua would count (e.g., [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Nicaragua reconocerá diplomáticamente a la República Popular China antes del 7 de noviembre de 2021? Información adicional: En las últimas décadas, muchos países han dejado de reconocer a la República de China, comúnmente conocida como Taiwán, en favor del reconocimiento de la República Popular de China. Un puñado de países continúan reconociendo a la República de China, incluyendo Nicaragua ([Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Taiwán](https://www.mofa.gov.tw/en/AlliesIndex.aspx?n=DF6F8F246049F8D6&sms=A76B7230ADF29736), [Springer Link](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11366-020-09682-8#Sec5), [T](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865)[aipei Times](https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/10/27/2003745865), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/90e8938980404130a63641162d125db2)). Un anuncio de Nicaragua contaría a efectos de la resolución de esta pregunta (por ejemplo, [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/world/middleeast/bahrain-israel.html), [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/13/middleeast/mideast-trump-full-statement-uae-israel-intl/index.html)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](http://clarifications@goodjudgment.com). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","82",3 -"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. -","160",3 -"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. -","72",3 +","83",3 +"How many seats will the United Russia party win in the 2021 Russian State Duma elections?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1902-how-many-seats-will-the-united-russia-party-win-in-the-2021-russian-state-duma-elections","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 226 seats"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 226 seats and 299 seats"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""300 seats or more"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Elections for the Russian State Duma, the lower house of Russia's federal legislature, are currently scheduled for 19 September 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/vladimir-putin-v-alexei-navalny), [Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/12/early-state-duma-elections-a69267)). The United Russia Party will need to win 226 or more seats to maintain its majority in the Duma ([RT](https://www.rt.com/russia/509962-putin-kremlin-foreign-interference-election/), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesrodgerseurope/2020/12/19/russia-in-2021-six-things-to-watch/?sh=5406dcf922d7)). In the event of a delay/postponement of the elections, the closing date would not be extended for this question. +","164",3 +"Before 15 July 2021, will an election be held for Moldova's parliament?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1906-before-15-july-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-moldova-s-parliament","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Newly elected Moldovan President Maia Sandu of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) has called for parliament to be dissolved and snap elections to be held ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/moldova-president-premier/moldovan-president-appoints-interim-pm-but-pushes-for-snap-election-idINKBN29512D)). Since she won on a pro-EU platform, it remains to be seen if the pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) can maintain its support ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55135213), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moldova-election-results/moldova-set-for-coalition-talks-after-inconclusive-election-idUSKCN1QE11O)). The closing date for this question will not be extended. +","73",3 "When will a new Dutch government be sworn in after the 2021 general election?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1907-when-will-a-new-dutch-government-be-sworn-in-after-the-2021-general-election","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 18 September 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The next Dutch general election is scheduled for 17 March 2021 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/a-difficult-year-looms-for-the-european-union), [Dutch News](https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/a-record-86-parties-register-for-the-march-2021-general-election/), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55674146), [houseofrepresentatives.nl](https://www.houseofrepresentatives.nl/cabinet)). After the 2017 election, it took political parties a record amount of time for a new coalition government to be installed ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-government/new-dutch-government-sworn-in-after-record-negotiations-idUSKBN1CV15D)). A caretaker government would not count. -","167",3 -"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). -","92",3 -"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). -","219",3 +","170",3 +"Will a Russian senior government official or Russian naval vessel visit Nicaragua before 7 November 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1900-will-a-russian-senior-government-official-or-russian-naval-vessel-visit-nicaragua-before-7-november-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While the Nicaraguan government faces sanctions and pressure from the U.S. government and others, Russia's ties with the Central American nation seem to remain strong ([Costa Rica News](https://thecostaricanews.com/russia-confirms-plans-to-produce-its-coronavirus-vaccine-in-nicaragua/), [The Moscow Times](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/01/04/foreign-policy-experts-map-russias-plans-for-2021-a72365), [Kyiv Post](https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/ukraine-starts-applying-sanctions-against-nicaragua-because-of-consulate-in-crimea.html), [Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/the-soviet-union-fought-the-cold-war-in-nicaragua-now-putins-russia-is-back/2017/04/08/b43039b0-0d8b-11e7-aa57-2ca1b05c41b8_story.html)). For the purposes of this question, a Russian senior government official is the head of state or an official listed as such by the Russian government ([government.ru](http://government.ru/en/gov/persons/)). +","94",3 +"What will Uber's end-of-day market capitalization be on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1905-what-will-uber-s-end-of-day-market-capitalization-be-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $75 billion"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $150 billion"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day ""Market Cap"" figure as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/UBER:US)). +","221",3 "Will North Macedonia announce that it has completed its census before 1 October 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1897-will-north-macedonia-announce-that-it-has-completed-its-census-before-1-october-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","North Macedonia has not completed a census since 2002, partly due to concern that it could disrupt the country's ethnic-conscious government ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/emigration-and-low-birth-rates-are-affecting-the-balkans), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/5dafc7e1-d233-48c4-bd6b-90a2ed45a6e7), [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/North-Macedonia-census-yes-census-no-207268), [Balkan Insight](https://balkaninsight.com/2020/10/09/north-macedonia-makes-fresh-push-for-long-overdue-census/)). A census that is started but not completed would not count (e.g., [OBC Transeuropa](https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/North-Macedonia/Census-fails-in-Macedonia-105372)). The actual release of data is immaterial. -","157",3 +","159",3 "Will Mexico hold a referendum on President Andrés Manuel López Obrador before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1895-will-mexico-hold-a-referendum-on-president-andres-manuel-lopez-obrador-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and a majority of the vote will be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, but a majority of the vote will not be in support of President López Obrador"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known by AMLO, has suggested that a referendum on his presidency be held in conjunction with the June 2021 midterm elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/amlo-proposes-a-referendum-on-his-presidency-in-mexico), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-president/mexico-presidents-rating-at-one-year-high-with-election-in-sight-poll-idUSKBN2820SU)). Whether a referendum is binding or has any legal effect would be immaterial. ","112",3 "Before 1 October 2021, will any group of Amazon employees in the U.S. vote in the affirmative to form a union?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1894-before-1-october-2021-will-any-group-of-amazon-employees-in-the-u-s-vote-in-the-affirmative-to-form-a-union","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","An election is expected to be held at a warehouse near Birmingham, Alabama, one of the first times Amazon workers have held a vote on whether to unionize ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/new-thinking-is-needed-on-workers-rights), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/22/business/amazon-union-vote-bessemer-alabama.html), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/531500-amazon-workers-in-alabama-inch-closer-to-union-vote)). A vote must be sanctioned by the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to count. NOTE 11 January 2021: Any Amazon subsidiary wholly-owned by Amazon would count. -","257",3 -"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. -","238",3 +","258",3 +"Will the U.S. leveraged loan default rate reach or exceed 5.0% before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1896-will-the-u-s-leveraged-loan-default-rate-reach-or-exceed-5-0-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The economic impacts of COVID-19 have seen an increase in loan default rates, but when the default cycle will peak remains unknown ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/corporate-defaults-will-be-surprisingly-few), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/blog/2021-leveraged-loan-survey-defaults-edge-higher-credit-quality-a-concern)). The outcome will be determined using the U.S. leveraged loan default rates published by S&P Global Market Intelligence at https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/campaigns/leveraged-loan. Under the ""Leveraged Loan Trends"" section, click on the ""Default Rate"" tab to show the ""Leveraged loan default rates - US (principal amount)"" graph. The rate reported for 30 September 2020 was 4.17. +","240",3 "Will Daniel Ortega cease to be the president of Nicaragua before 11 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1891-will-daniel-ortega-be-cease-to-be-the-president-of-nicaragua-before-11-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Daniel Ortega is expected to run for reelection in the 2021 Nicaraguan general election, scheduled for 7 November 2021 ([ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nicaraguan-government-sets-date-presidential-election-71785222), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/blog/ten-elections-watch-2021), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/elections-blockades-central-america-daniel-ortega-nicaragua-14d04033e443f6da9bf3d11aec0dae47)). Inauguration day is set by Article 148 of the constitution at 10 January 2022 ([Nicaragua Constitution](https://noticias.asamblea.gob.ni//constitucion/Libro_Constitucion.pdf) [in Spanish], [Nicaragua Constitution](https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Nicaragua_2014.pdf?lang=en) [in English]). ","105",3 -"Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count. -","362",3 "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","AMC, the world's largest movie theater chain, is facing challenges as the COVID-19 pandemic continues ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/coronavirus-amc-seeks-550-million-as-stock-closes-at-record-low.html), [Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/12/14/amc-entertainment-lenders-urge-it-to-declare-bankr/)). -","184",3 -"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). -","201",3 +","185",3 +"At close of business on 31 December 2021, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1884-at-close-of-business-on-31-december-2021-will-apple-be-the-most-valuable-publicly-traded-company-in-the-world","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the most valuable in the world"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, but the most valuable in the United States"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/apple-surpasses-saudi-aramco-to-become-worlds-most-valuable-company.html), [NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/08/19/903858871/apple-is-1st-2-trillion-american-company)). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg - APPL](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AAPL:US), see ""MARKET CAP""). For companies with shares denominated in a currency other than U.S. dollars, the relevant dollar exchange rate as of 31 December 2021 will be used to assess its value in dollars (e.g., [Bloomberg - ARAMCO](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ARAMCO:AB), [Bloomberg - SAR](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDSAR:CUR)). +","203",3 "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Nicaragua"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""St. Lucia"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will be a draw"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). Versión en Español: Pregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol? Información adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. -Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#096a65687b606f606a687d6066677a496e66666d637c6d6e646c677d276a6664367a7c6b636c6a7d34587c6c7a7d6066672c3b394a65687b606f606a687d606667). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","171",3 +Si tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3a59565b48535c53595b4e535554497a5d55555e504f5e5d575f544e1459555705494f58505f594e076b4f5f494e5355541f080a79565b48535c53595b4e535554). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","172",3 "What will be the closing yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury on 31 December 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1883-what-will-be-the-closing-yield-for-the-30-year-u-s-treasury-on-31-december-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.500"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.000 but less than 2.500"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 3.000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury saw new record lows in March 2020 as the scale of the economic impact of COVID-19 became clear ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/10-year-treasury-yield-plunges.html), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/30-yeartreasury.asp)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by CNBC ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=US30Y)). -","257",3 +","259",3 "Will legislation amending or repealing Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1934 become law before 14 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1882-will-legislation-amending-or-repealing-section-230-of-the-communications-act-of-1934-become-law-before-14-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Section 230 is a statute that protects social media companies from liability for content their users post ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-section-230-and-why-do-so-many-lawmakers-want-to-repeal-it/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/trump-and-section-230-what-know), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10306.pdf), [Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/47/230), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/23/trump-ndaa-veto-section-230/)). -","215",3 +","216",3 "Before 1 April 2021, will an election be held for Israel's Knesset?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1879-before-1-april-2021-will-an-election-be-held-for-israel-s-knesset","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be an election before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Disagreements within the ruling coalition, most recently over the budget, may lead Israel to hold its fourth election in two years ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/02/world/middleeast/israeli-parliament-election.html), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/bill-to-dissolve-knesset-set-for-delay-until-next-week-angering-blue-and-white/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/12/22/israeli-knesset-likely-to-dissolve-as-extension-vote-fails/)). -","324",3 +","326",3 "At close of business on 28 April 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 17 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1877-at-close-of-business-on-28-april-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its April meeting is scheduled for 27-28 April 2021. ","107",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the Diem Association, co-founded by Facebook, launch a stablecoin?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1876-before-1-january-2022-will-the-diem-association-co-founded-by-facebook-launch-a-stablecoin","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Diem Association, formerly known as Libra Association and related to Facebook, is planning to launch a single-currency stablecoin in 2021 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/08/facebook-hopes-the-cryptocurrency-diem-it-backs-will-launch-in-2021.html), [Diem](https://www.diem.com/en-us/white-paper/), [Securities.io](https://www.securities.io/investing-in-diem-facebooks-libra-project-everything-you-need-to-know/), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stablecoin.asp)). ","166",3 "Before 19 June 2021, will the end-of-day closing value for the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar exceed 9.00?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1878-before-19-june-2021-will-the-end-of-day-closing-value-for-the-turkish-lira-against-the-u-s-dollar-exceed-9-00","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The lira has been under pressure amid Turkey's tensions with the U.S. and the EU, compounded by COVID-19 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/emerging-markets/emerging-markets-turkeys-lira-falls-past-8-per-dollar-fx-stocks-eye-6th-week-of-gains-idUSL4N2IR24P), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-12-11/turkish-lira-declines-as-u-s-sanctions-risk-sours-appetite)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDTRY:CUR)). -","173",3 +","174",3 "Will the People's Republic of China and the EU sign a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1875-will-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-the-eu-sign-a-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While both China and the EU have committed to reaching an agreement by the end of 2020, it is uncertain this will be the case ([European Parliament - Briefing](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/652066/EPRS_BRI(2020)652066_EN.pdf), [European Parliament - (EU-CHINA CAI)](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement), [CEPS](https://www.ceps.eu/eu-china-comprehensive-agreement-on-investment/), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3113906/eu-and-china-set-further-investment-talks-end-year-deadline), [Core.ac.uk](https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/148912339.pdf)). For details on the negotiation and ratification process of trade agreements involving the EU, please see the following: https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2012/june/tradoc_149616.pdf, https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-a-balanced-and-progressive-trade-policy-to-harness-globalisation/file-eu-china-investment-agreement. -","451",3 +","453",3 "Will the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and/or the EU's European Medicines Agency (EMA) approve a COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese companies Sinovac or Sinopharm before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1869-will-the-u-s-food-and-drug-administration-fda-and-or-the-eu-s-european-medicines-agency-ema-approve-a-covid-19-vaccine-from-chinese-companies-sinovac-or-sinopharm-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only by the FDA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only by the EMA"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Sinovac and Sinopharm are among the many Chinese developers of COVID-19 vaccines ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html), [Sinopharm](http://www.sinopharm.com/1156.html), [Sinovac](http://www.sinovac.com/), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/14/chinas-sinopharm-vaccine-how-effective-is-it-and-where-will-it-be-rolled-out), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55212787)). For more details of the EMA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [AP](https://apnews.com/article/europe-vaccine-approval-explained-193bc87c8930c54bfc9b9b21c4a9e3f0), [EMA](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19), [EMA - Approvals](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/covid-19-vaccines-studies-approval). For more details regarding the FDA’s vaccine approval process, please see: [FDA - Vaccine Development](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101), [FDA - Emergency Preparedness](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines). Emergency use approvals would count. -","414",3 +","417",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will a commercial, open to the public, ride-hailing service that uses autonomous vehicles without back-up drivers nor remote operators be launched in the People's Republic of China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1870-before-1-january-2022-will-a-commercial-open-to-the-public-ride-hailing-service-that-uses-autonomous-vehicles-without-back-up-drivers-nor-remote-operators-be-launched-in-the-people-s-republic-of-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Several companies are developing autonomous vehicles in China with the goal of launching a commercial open to the public ride-hailing service ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/04/fully-driverless-cars-are-being-tested-in-china-for-the-first-time.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/02/autox-removes-safety-drivers/), [CGTN](https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-11/Baidu-rolls-out-self-driving-taxi-service-in-Beijing-UvCnsSa3g4/index.html)). The service must involve payment to count for resolution of this question. Note 2 February 2021: A ride-hailing service using AVs that have remote monitors capable of taking control of the vehicle would not count. ","275",3 "Will the United States and China sign a trade agreement before 1 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1872-will-the-united-states-and-china-sign-a-trade-agreement-before-1-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The latest trade agreement between the United States and China was the so-called “Phase One” agreement signed in January 2020 ([U.S. Trade Representative](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/phase%20one%20agreement/US_China_Agreement_Fact_Sheet.pdf), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/trump-and-china-sign-phase-one-trade-agreement.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-details-factbox-idUSKBN1ZE2IF), [FOX Business](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-phase-one-trade-deal-whats-next), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKBN28C0HV)). -","352",3 +","353",3 "Before 14 August 2021, will an executive order be signed or federal legislation become law that would forgive $10,000 or more in principal on federal student loan debts for at least five million student loan borrowers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1873-before-14-august-2021-will-an-executive-order-be-signed-or-federal-legislation-become-law-that-would-forgive-10-000-or-more-in-principal-on-federal-student-loan-debts-for-at-least-five-million-student-loan-borrowers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some Democrats are pushing President-elect Joe Biden to cancel federal student loan debt on his first day in office, while Biden has pushed for congressional action ([Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/12/12/10-questions-about-bidens-plan-to-cancel-student-loans/), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/10/us/biden-clashes-with-liberals-over-student-loan-cancellation.html), [Nerd Wallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/student-loans/student-loan-debt#total-federal-student-loan-debt)). There is also disagreement as to whether the president can cancel student loan debt without Congress ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/21/can-joe-biden-forgive-student-debt-without-congress-experts-weigh-in.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertberger/2020/11/30/will-biden-cancel-your-student-loans-in-january)). Any injunction sought to block such an executive order or federal legislation would be immaterial, as would the date that principal forgiveness would take effect. -","279",3 +","280",3 "Will the monthly occupancy level of European hotels next reach 50.0% or higher before June 2021, according to Smith Travel Research?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1874-will-the-monthly-occupancy-level-of-european-hotels-next-reach-50-0-or-higher-before-june-2021-according-to-smith-travel-research","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel demand in Europe has taken a major hit due to the COVID-19 pandemic ([Fodor's Travel Guide](https://www.fodors.com/news/news/coronavirus-outbreak-should-you-cancel-a-trip-to-europe-right-now)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by Smith Travel Research and its monthly European hotel performance reports, which are generally released the third week of the following month. The reports can be found at https://str.com/data-insights/news/press-releases by setting ""Region"" to ""Europe,"" and ""Type"" to ""Monthly."" After selecting a particular monthly report, see ""Occupancy"" under the ""Euro Constant currency"" section. In October 2020, the occupancy level was 32.3% ([Smith Travel Research](https://str.com/press-release/str-europe-hotel-performance-october-2020)) -","413",3 +","416",3 "Before 15 July 2021, will Canadians Michael Kovrig and/or Michael Spavor leave China?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1867-before-15-july-2021-will-canadians-michael-kovrig-and-or-michael-spavor-leave-china","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Kovrig"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Soon after Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou was arrested in Vancouver in December 2018, two Canadian nationals, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, were arrested in China ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/china-canada-diplomat-michael-kovrig-detention-latest-), [Toronto Star](https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/06/24/two-michaels-fight-is-bigger-than-canada-global-observers-say-and-the-world-is-watching.html), [CBC](https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1395286595882), [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3112949/huaweis-meng-wanzhou-back-canadian-court-first-time-reports)). -","317",3 +","320",3 "Will Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea sign a trilateral free trade agreement before 1 January 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1868-will-japan-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-south-korea-sign-a-trilateral-free-trade-agreement-before-1-january-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the wake of the signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), there's speculation that a trilateral free trade agreement among Japan, the People's Republic of China, and South Korea may be within reach ([Yahoo News](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/china-japan-south-korea-rcep-051029662.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-china/japan-and-china-agree-to-restart-business-travel-coordinate-on-east-china-sea-idUSKBN284042), [Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs](https://www.mofa.go.jp/ecm/ep/page23e_000337.html)). Ratification by the parties to the agreement is not required for a ""Yes"" resolution. -","241",3 +","243",3 "When will a Carnival Cruise Line cruise next depart from the continental U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1866-when-will-a-carnival-cruise-line-cruise-next-depart-from-the-continental-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 January 2022"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While CDC restrictions due to COVID-19 have been relaxed, there is ongoing uncertainty regarding when a Carnival Cruise Line cruise will depart next ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/carnival-cruise-canceled-trnd/index.html), [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html)). A cruise must include ticketed passengers to count. -","254",3 +","257",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will a release date for The Winds of Winter be announced by the author and/or publisher?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1864-before-1-january-2022-will-a-release-date-for-the-winds-of-winter-be-announced-by-the-author-and-or-publisher","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Winds of Winter is the sixth novel in the fantasy series that inspired HBO's Game of Thrones ([Rotten Tomatoes](https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/game-of-thrones)). There has been talk that the book could be released soon, though similar claims have been made in the past ([NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/books/george-rr-martin-winds-of-winter.html), [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/books/1359042/Winds-of-Winter-release-date-George-RR-Martin-blog-ASOIAF-expert-Game-of-Thrones), [Entertainment Weekly](https://ew.com/article/2015/04/03/george-rr-martin-winds-date/)). ","84",3 "Before 7 May 2021, will the Bank of England set its Bank Rate to below zero?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1861-before-7-may-2021-will-the-bank-of-england-set-its-bank-rate-to-below-zero","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Bank of England's benchmark interest rate is known as the ""Bank Rate"" ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/britain-will-face-disruption-and-deficit-while-many-britons-will-face-the-dole), [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/the-interest-rate-bank-rate)). Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and negotiations with the EU regarding an end to the Brexit transition period, the Bank of England has explored setting negative interest rates for the UK ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54314971), [Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/20/bank-of-england-negative-interest-rates-gertjan-vlieghe-covid), [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/uk-banks-ready-for-painful-negative-interest-rates-market-has-baked-them-in-61330250), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/72500c20-4a49-4fa9-a3c8-40ce1d26f436)).  -","388",3 +","390",3 "Will net international migration between the U.S. and abroad for 2021 be higher than the net international migration for 2020?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1865-will-net-international-migration-between-the-u-s-and-abroad-for-2021-be-higher-than-the-net-international-migration-for-2020","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Net international migration between the U.S. and abroad projected for 2019 was at its lowest level of the decade at 595,000 ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/12/net-international-migration-projected-to-fall-lowest-levels-this-decade.html)). The outcome will be determined using data on the projected net international migration for 2021 as first reported by the U.S. Census Bureau ([Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html)). Download the Excel file ""Population, Population Change, and Estimated Components of Population Change."" See the row designated ""10"" under ""SUMLEV"" and ""United States"" under ""NAME."" The relevant data are titled ""INTERNATIONALMIG[year]."" For methodological information, see the ""Nation, States, Counties, and Puerto Rico Population"" Methodology file here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html. -","102",3 +","103",3 "In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, will the Supreme Court rule that California's access regulation, as applied to Cedar Point Nursery, is a per se physical taking under the federal constitution?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1863-in-cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-california-s-access-regulation-as-applied-to-cedar-point-nursery-is-a-per-se-physical-taking-under-the-federal-constitution","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cedar Point Nursery sued California over state regulations allowing union organizers access to employees on their employers' property without compensation under limited circumstances ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/20-107), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/cedar-point-nursery-v-hassid/), [Bloomberg Law](https://news.bloomberglaw.com/daily-labor-report/california-farmers-get-supreme-court-review-of-union-access-rule), [National Law Review](https://www.natlawreview.com/article/scotus-to-consider-whether-california-unconstitutionally-takes-private-property-when)). The trial court dismissed the lawsuit and the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed ([Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/nursery-v-shiroma)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" ","75",3 "What will be the closing price of natural gas (per MMBtu) on 1 June 2021, according to Bloomberg?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1858-what-will-be-the-closing-price-of-natural-gas-per-mmbtu-on-1-june-2021-according-to-bloomberg","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $2.00"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $2.00 and $2.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $2.50 but less than $3.00"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $3.50"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using futures price data as reported by Bloomberg ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NG1:COM)). ","246",3 "Before 1 July 2021, will presidential and/or parliamentary elections be held in Kyrgyzstan?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1854-before-1-july-2021-will-presidential-and-or-parliamentary-elections-be-held-in-kyrgyzstan","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only for president"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only for parliament"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, for both president and parliament"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyrgyzstan experienced political upheaval in the wake of vote-rigging allegations in its October 2020 parliamentary elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2020/11/10/whats-happening-in-kyrgyzstan), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54493185)). On 17 November 2020, the Kyrgyz parliament adopted amendments to the law on elections mandating that they take place no later than June 2021 ([Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/kyrgyzstan-punts-on-elections-to-pursue-constitutional-reforms/)). Whether results are annulled after the election is held would not impact the counting of an election having been held (e.g., [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030)). -","125",3 +","126",3 "Will the IMF estimate for world GDP growth for 2021 be higher in its April 2021 World Economic Outlook report relative to its October 2020 report?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1856-will-the-imf-estimate-for-world-gdp-growth-for-2021-be-higher-in-its-april-2021-world-economic-outlook-report-relative-to-its-october-2020-report","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others are projecting a significant contraction in the global economy in the coming years ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/governments-must-judge-if-the-economic-recovery-needs-more-help), [IMF - June 2020](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020), [World Economic Forum](https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/oecd-global-gdp-pre-pandemic-level-2021-sustainable-resilient/)). The outcome will be determined using IMF purchasing power parity GDP data from the first release of the World Economic Outlook Database in 2021, which is expected in April 2021. At the IMF website ([IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/SPROLLS/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort=%40imfdate%20descending)), choose the appropriate ""World Economic Outlook Database""; then choose ""Entire Dataset""; then download the ""By Country Groups"" file in the ""Tab Delimited Values"" section. On the spreadsheet, refer to the line of data, usually near the top, that has the Subject Descriptor as ""Gross domestic product, constant prices"" and Units as ""Percent change."" Scroll over to the appropriate year. Estimated world GDP growth for 2021 was 5.152%, according to the October 2020 report ([IMF - October 2020](https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/WEO-Database/2020/02/WEOOct2020alla.ashx)). The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). -","415",3 -"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). +","419",3 +"Who will win the 2021 presidential election in Peru?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1853-who-will-win-the-2021-presidential-election-in-peru","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress)"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force)"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another candidate"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Peru has seen a series of presidents come and go in late 2020 ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/latin-americas-leaders-will-have-plenty-of-headaches), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/americas/peru-protests-explainer-scli-intl/index.html), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-politics-idUSKBN27W1KU)). The presidential election is scheduled for 2021 with the first round of voting taking place on 11 April 2021 and a runoff scheduled for 6 June 2021 if needed ([Peruvian Times](https://www.peruviantimes.com/09/general-elections-to-be-held-april-2021/32266/)). NOTE 15 December 2020: If the first round of the election takes place and requires a subsequent runoff scheduled for after 30 September 2021, the suspend date would be extended to accommodate the runoff. If no election takes place before 1 October 2021, the suspend date would not be extended and the question would resolve on that answer bin. -","190",3 +","195",3 "Before 4 June 2021, will the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) report that the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively"" fell below 20%?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1855-before-4-june-2021-will-the-united-kingdom-s-office-for-national-statistics-ons-report-that-the-percentage-of-working-adults-who-worked-from-home-exclusively-fell-below-20","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 pandemic has forced many workers to work from home, and this trend may continue even after the pandemic has passed ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/new-technological-behaviours-will-outlast-the-pandemic), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-53946487)). The outcome will be determined using data as reported in the ONS' Opinions and Lifestyle Survey. In their report from 26 November 2020, the ONS reported that 30% of working adults worked from home exclusively ([ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronavirustheukeconomyandsocietyfasterindicators/26november2020), see Figure 1 under Section 4). In the event that the release of the reports is changed or delayed, the outcome will be determined based on the most recently reported figure as of the close of business on 3 June 2021. The Superforecaster version of this question is at [The Economist dashboard](https://goodjudgment.io/economist/). -","539",3 -"What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 5.0%"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.0%"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as ""Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter."" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021. -NOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth. -","529",3 +","543",3 "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Zero"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or more"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The race to develop COVID-19 vaccines is on ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/16/the-path-to-a-covid-19-vaccine-may-be-quick-but-it-will-be-bumpy), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/covid-19-vaccines), [FDA](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained)). -","1644",3 +","1663",3 "How many vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in the first half of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1852-how-many-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-the-first-half-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 150,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""350,000 or more"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As more automakers jockey for electric vehicle market share, Tesla will continue to push for its own growth ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/the-battle-within-the-electric-vehicle-industry-will-intensify)). Tesla delivered 88,496 vehicles during Q1 2020 and 90,891 vehicles during Q2 2020, for a total of 179,387 in the first half of 2020 ([Tesla Q1 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/HZTKGL_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-1Q_VGVL6F.pdf), [Tesla Q2 2020](https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/DK2EWG_TSLA_Update_Letter_2020-2Q_G6S6GG.pdf)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found under ""Shareholder Deck"" here: https://ir.tesla.com. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for Q2 2021 are released, expected in July 2021. -","506",3 -"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). -","319",3 -"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). +","507",3 +"Before 1 October 2021, will Jair Bolsonaro cease to be the president of Brazil?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1851-before-1-october-2021-will-jair-bolsonaro-cease-to-be-the-president-of-brazil","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since taking office in 2019, President Bolsonaro has thus far survived scandals and the devastating effects of COVID-19 in the country ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/neither-plagues-nor-scandals-will-topple-brazils-populist-president)). +","320",3 +"Will Nicolas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1843-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nicolas Maduro remains in power despite continued international pressure and domestic instability ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/leopoldo-lopez-flees-venezuela-vowing-to-continue-fighting-maduro-regime), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/maduro-hopes-to-resume-decent-dialogue-with-us-after-biden-win), [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/venezuela-defend-start-dialogue-trump-biden-wins-1544542)). This question is a longer-term companion of [#1642](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1642-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-january-2021). -","511",3 +","517",3 "In 2021, will total fire activity in the Amazon exceed the 2020 total count?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1842-in-2021-will-total-fire-activity-in-the-amazon-exceed-the-2020-total-count","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The increasing number of fires in South America, particularly Brazil, has captured international attention ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/01/brazil-amazon-rainforest-worst-fires-in-decade), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53893161)). The outcome will be determined with data reported by the GFED in its ""Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts"" chart in the “Totals” section, seeing whether the Cumulative Monthly Fire Counts for 2021 exceeds the entire total for 31 December 2020 ([Global Fire Emissions Database](http://www.globalfiredata.org/forecast.html)). ","220",3 "Will the U.S. consume more energy from renewable sources in May 2021 than it did in May 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1840-will-the-u-s-consume-more-energy-from-renewable-sources-in-may-2021-than-it-did-in-may-2019-according-to-the-u-s-energy-information-administration-eia","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A record amount of renewable energy was consumed in 2019, though COVID-19 took its toll on overall energy consumption in the Spring of 2020 ([EIA 19 October 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45516), [EIA 30 June 2020](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44276)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the EIA for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" ([EIA TABLE 1.3 PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T01.03)). In May 2019, the U.S. consumed 1.059944 quadrillion Btus of energy from renewable sources. NOTE 4 January 2021: The EIA figure for ""Total"" under ""Renewable Energy"" has been slightly revised since the question was launched. To be clear, the outcome will be determined using data as reported for May 2019 and May 2021 when May 2021 data are first reported by the EIA. -","314",3 +","316",3 "On 12 May 2021, will Ethiopia's Tigray region be under a federally-imposed state of emergency?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1841-on-12-may-2021-will-ethiopia-s-tigray-region-be-under-a-federally-imposed-state-of-emergency","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 4 November 2020, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed declared, and lawmakers approved, a state of emergency in the Tigray region following unrest that included an attack on a military base and controversial regional elections ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/abiy-ahmed-presents-ethiopias-voters-with-an-unhappy-choice), [Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/4/ethiopia-declares-state-of-emergency-in-opposition-tigray-region), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-54805088), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/05/africa/ethiopia-abiy-unrest-explainer-intl/index.html)). The state of emergency can last up to 6 months at which point it expires or the government votes to renew it ([Ethiopian Constitution](https://www.servat.unibe.ch/icl/et00000_.html), see Article 93). -","306",3 +","308",3 "When will the World Health Organization (WHO) report more than 20 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 for the South-East Asia Region?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1835-when-will-the-world-health-organization-who-report-more-than-20-million-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-south-east-asia-region","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the World Health Organization ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). ","291",3 "At close of business on 17 March 2021, will the upper limit of the Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 27 January 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1824-at-close-of-business-on-17-march-2021-will-the-upper-limit-of-the-federal-reserve-s-target-range-for-the-federal-funds-rate-be-lower-the-same-or-higher-than-it-was-at-close-of-business-on-27-january-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Lower"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Higher"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The U.S. federal funds rate is the interest rate charged for overnight lending among financial institutions with accounts at the Federal Reserve and sets the base rate for borrowing costs across the financial system ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). The target range for the federal funds rate is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Its March meeting is scheduled for 16-17 March 2021. -","190",3 +","194",3 "Before 1 May 2021, will Mahmoud Abbas cease to be president of the Palestinian Authority?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1825-before-1-may-2021-will-mahmoud-abbas-cease-to-be-president-of-the-palestinian-authority","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas finds himself under increased pressure as Arab states improve ties with Israel and political rivals jockey for position ([Middle East Monitor](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201027-the-growing-calls-to-replace-the-palestinian-leadership/), [Times of Israel](https://www.timesofisrael.com/abbas-slams-israel-sudan-deal-no-one-can-speak-on-behalf-of-palestinians/), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/10/30/mohammed-dahlan-uae-palestinians-israel/)). ","229",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will Amazon announce that it will spin off Amazon Web Services (AWS)?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1822-before-1-january-2022-will-amazon-announce-that-it-will-spin-off-amazon-web-services-aws","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As Amazon has grown it has received increased scrutiny, and there have been calls for it to spin off its cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS) ([Medium](https://medium.com/swlh/should-amazon-spin-off-aws-e15d6e307506), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/former-amazon-senior-engineer-calls-for-aws-spinoff.html), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/10/6/21505027/congress-big-tech-antitrust-report-facebook-google-amazon-apple-mark-zuckerberg-jeff-bezos-tim-cook), [Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spinoff.asp)). The date when the spinoff would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. -","315",3 +","317",3 "Will Apple's iPhone net sales be higher in FY 2021 than FY 2019?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1823-will-apple-s-iphone-net-sales-be-higher-in-fy-2021-than-fy-2019","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Apple's iPhone net sales have fluctuated over the years, and as of October 2020 Apple has begun to sell the new iPhone 12 and its variants ([Apple](https://www.apple.com/iphone/)). Industry analysts speculate whether 5G capability will bolster declining iPhone sales or if the pandemic's global impact on supply chains and expendable income will hinder iPhone sales ([9 to 5 Mac](https://9to5mac.com/2019/11/25/iphone-12-5g-demand/), [ABS-CBN](https://news.abs-cbn.com/business/10/14/20/in-china-apples-5g-iphone-12-sparks-fever-pitch-but-divided-reaction)). Apple Inc.'s Fiscal Year (FY) annual report for 2021 is expected by early November 2021 at https://investor.apple.com/investor-relations/default.aspx under the ""Annual Reports on Form 10-K"" section. For FY 2020, Apple reported net iPhone sales of $137.781 billion, compared to $142.381 billion in FY 2019 ([Apple 10-K (2020)](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/7b5717ca-6222-48e6-801c-9ea28feeef86.pdf), see page 21). -","266",3 +","268",3 "How many countries will have 100,000 or more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 30 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1819-how-many-countries-will-have-100-000-or-more-deaths-attributed-to-covid-19-as-of-30-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or 8"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""9 or more"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 23 October 2020, 3 countries have more than one hundred thousand deaths from COVID-19: the U.S., Brazil, and India ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20201003-india-s-covid-19-death-toll-tops-100-000-behind-us-and-brazil)). The outcome of this question will be determined using data reported by the World Health Organization at approximately 5:00PM ET on 30 April 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/)). -","1394",3 +","1402",3 "Will Prayut Chan-o-cha cease to be the prime minister of Thailand before 23 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1820-will-prayut-chan-o-cha-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-thailand-before-23-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha faces an array of challenges, including calls for him to resign and protests in the streets of Bangkok against the actions of the monarchy ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54573349), [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/thailand-pm-refuses-to-step-down-as-protesters-defy-police/a-55301495), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/19/asia/thailand-weekend-protests-monarchy-intl-hnk/index.html)). ","284",3 "Before 1 September 2021, will Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan sign an agreement governing the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1815-before-1-september-2021-will-egypt-ethiopia-and-sudan-sign-an-agreement-governing-the-filling-of-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-gerd-reservoir","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tensions between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan have escalated over Ethiopia's filling of the GERD, designed to become the largest hydroelectric plant in Africa and provide electricity to millions of people ([Al-Monitor](https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-ethiopia-sudan-talks-stalled-nile-dam.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53432948), [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/28/renaissance-dam-ethiopia-egypt-negotiations/)). The filling of the reservoir has stoked diplomatic backlash from Egypt and Sudan due to the potential impacts on water flows, including a referral of the matter to the UN Security Council ([Egypt Today](https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/88770/Egypt-refers-GERD-issue-to-UN-Security-Council), [UN](https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14232.doc.htm)). @@ -237,96 +230,96 @@ NOTE 29 October 2020: The simultaneous successful testing of two C-HGBs would co "Will Boom Technology's XB-1 supersonic aircraft complete a successful test flight before 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1816-will-boom-technology-s-xb-1-supersonic-aircraft-complete-a-successful-test-flight-before-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Boom Technology recently unveiled the XB-1, a one-third scale prototype of its future Overture supersonic airliner, and plans to test fly it for the first time in 2021 ([Boom Supersonic](https://boom-press-assets.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Boom-Supersonic-XB1-Rollout-Press-Release.pdf), [BoomSupersonic.com](https://boomsupersonic.com), [Flight Global](https://www.flightglobal.com/airframers/boom-rolls-out-xb-1-supersonic-demonstrator-lays-out-overture-timeline/140513.article)). For the purposes of this question, a test flight would be deemed successful if the aircraft takes off and lands.  ","130",3 "When will Canada next permit discretionary travel for foreign nationals arriving from the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1817-when-will-canada-next-permit-discretionary-travel-for-foreign-nationals-arriving-from-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 June 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Travel from the U.S. to Canada for discretionary reasons (non-essential), such as for tourism, recreation or entertainment, is currently prohibited due to COVID-19 ([Government of Canada](https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/services/covid/non-canadians-canadiens-eng.html), [U.S. Embassy - Canada](https://ca.usembassy.gov/travel-restrictions-fact-sheet/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-08/canada-will-pitch-safe-tourism-to-travelers-once-borders-open)). Permitting discretionary travel for one or more points of entry from the U.S. to Canada would count. -","541",3 +","543",3 "For any seven consecutive day period between 9 October 2020 and 15 June 2021, will there be fewer than 50,000 combined total confirmed new cases of COVID-19 in the United States?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1806-for-any-seven-consecutive-day-period-between-9-october-2020-and-15-june-2021-will-there-be-fewer-than-50-000-combined-total-confirmed-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-united-states","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.93,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The outcome of this question will be determined using data for the United States reported by the World Health Organization between 9 October 2020 and 30 June 2021 ([WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/region/amro/country/us)). For the seven consecutive day period from 22 September 2020 and 28 September 2020 (using daily numbers), WHO reported 305,412 combined total confirmed new cases. Total confirmed new cases data for days prior to 9 October 2020 are immaterial to the resolution of this question. The data provided on the WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard at approximately 5:00PM ET each day will now be used to resolve this question. -","722",3 -"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). -","452",3 +","726",3 +"What will be the delinquency rate on commercial real estate loans (excluding farmland) in the United States in the second quarter of 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1798-what-will-be-the-delinquency-rate-on-commercial-real-estate-loans-excluding-farmland-in-the-united-states-in-the-second-quarter-of-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.00%"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.00%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to grow, there are fears that the commercial real estate market will get hit particularly hard ([LMTonline](https://www.lmtonline.com/business/article/Wave-of-foreclosures-seen-hitting-commercial-real-15573246.php), [Real Estate Weekly](https://rew-online.com/wave-of-distressed-sales-on-horizon-as-loan-delinquency-jumps/), [Commercial Property Executive](https://www.cpexecutive.com/post/commercial-multifamily-mortgage-delinquency-rates-affected-by-the-pandemic/)). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, sometime in the third quarter 2021 ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS)). +","460",3 "What will be the annual rate of housing starts for April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1799-what-will-be-the-annual-rate-of-housing-starts-for-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 1.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1.6 million"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The future rate of housing starts, a measure of new home building in the US, will likely be impacted by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, fires in the western United States straining the lumber industry, and record-low mortgage rates ([Morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202009175758/us-housing-starts-slip-in-august), [KATU](https://katu.com/news/following-the-money/timber-industry-hit-hard-by-fires-will-have-generational-impact)). The question will be suspended on 30 April 2021 and the outcome determined using data provided by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for April 2021, typically in May ([FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST)). For April 2020, housing starts totaled 0.934 million. -","464",3 -"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). -","446",3 +","465",3 +"When will Lebanon's parliament give a vote of confidence to a new government?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1801-when-will-lebanon-s-parliament-give-a-vote-of-confidence-to-a-new-government","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mustapha Adib, who was chosen to form a government after the previous one had been toppled following a massive explosion in Beirut in early August 2020, resigned on 26 September 2020, citing tensions among the various political groups in the country ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54307896), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/12/21/why-lebanon-struggles-to-form-governments), [France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200927-live-france-s-macron-speaks-about-lebanon-s-crisis-after-pm-designate-quits), [AP](https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-beirut-emmanuel-macron-lebanon-financial-markets-257abf1fd90d95ef27f8344204be30e3)). +","450",3 "In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia (City), will the Supreme Court rule that the City's requirement that Catholic Social Services (CSS) not discriminate against same-sex couples as a condition for working with the City's foster children is unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1796-in-fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-city-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-city-s-requirement-that-catholic-social-services-css-not-discriminate-against-same-sex-couples-as-a-condition-for-working-with-the-city-s-foster-children-is-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In March 2018, the City barred Catholic Social Services (CSS) from placing children in foster homes because of the CSS policy of not licensing same-sex couples to be foster parents ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/19-123)). CSS sued, arguing for its right to free exercise of religion and free speech ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Fulton_v._City_of_Philadelphia,_Pennsylvania)). The district court and Third Circuit Court of Appeals ruled for the City ([Third Circuit Court of Appeals](http://www2.ca3.uscourts.gov/opinarch/182574p.pdf), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/fulton-v-city-of-philadelphia-pennsylvania/)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" ","210",3 "Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cease to be president of Turkey before 15 July 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1792-will-recep-tayyip-erdogan-cease-to-be-president-of-turkey-before-15-july-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Erdoğan is embroiled in several controversies in the region, including active engagement in the Libyan civil war, oil & gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean, and Turkey's acquisition of Russian S-400 missile systems despite warnings from the U.S. and NATO ([Al Jazeera](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/turkey-illegitimate-haftar-withdraw-key-libya-areas-200722160827376.html), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53906360), [Defense News](https://www.defensenews.com/breaking-news/2020/08/12/congress-has-secretly-blocked-us-arms-sales-to-turkey-for-nearly-two-years/)). -","410",3 -"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). -","339",3 +","411",3 +"Which country will the 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final winner be from?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1790-which-country-will-the-2020-21-uefa-champions-league-final-winner-be-from","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""England"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Italy"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Spain"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another country"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""There will not be a 2020-21 final winner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2020-21 UEFA Champions League final is scheduled to be played at Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul, Turkey on 29 May 2021 ([UEFA](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/news/025e-0fac7ce8f2d4-6d86444e8807-1000--2020-21-all-you-need-to-know/), [UEFA (Clubs)](https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/clubs/)). +","341",3 "When will 25,000 or more fans next attend a Premier League match?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1788-when-will-25-000-or-more-fans-next-attend-a-premier-league-match","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 19 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 24 May 2021"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Fans in the UK have been restricted from sporting events due to the coronavirus, and there is uncertainty about when they can return in large numbers ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/54094363), [Sky Sports](https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11661/12069059/coronavirus-premier-league-concerned-by-delays-to-fans-return), [Goal](https://www.goal.com/en-us/news/will-there-be-fans-at-premier-league-matches-in-2020-21-when/1sz2evfoff4101efeqoy9hmppq), [Premier League](https://www.premierleague.com/fixtures)). -","676",3 +","677",3 "Before 18 September 2021, will Boris Johnson cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1789-before-18-september-2021-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Boris Johnson's premiership began in July 2019 after Theresa May stepped down ([Britannica](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Boris-Johnson)). He continues to lead the UK through final Brexit negotiations with the EU ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/brexit-and-covid-19-show-up-the-disunited-kingdom), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54156419), [Independent](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-coronavirus-self-isolating-labour-covid-19-symptoms-b435681.html)). -","1139",3 +","1140",3 "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States either directed or inspired by a foreign terrorist organization before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1780-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-either-directed-or-inspired-by-a-foreign-terrorist-organization-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). A foreign terrorist organization (FTO) is an organization designated as an FTO by the US Department of State ([State.gov](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. -","384",3 +","385",3 "Will any 2020 California election results be altered by a cyberattack against a voting system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1782-will-any-2020-california-election-results-be-altered-by-a-cyberattack-against-a-voting-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cyberattacks against voting systems in the 2020 elections are an object of continuing concern, including in California ([Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russian-hackers-who-disrupted-2016-election-targeting-political-parties-again-microsoft-says/2020/09/10/301dd5fe-f36c-11ea-bc45-e5d48ab44b9f_story.html), [CBS SF BayArea](https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/09/08/san-mateo-co-voter-registrar-working-with-state-feds-to-repel-hackers-foreign-cyberattacks/), [California AB 2125](https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billTextClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180AB2125), [National Conference of State Legislatures](https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/post-election-audits635926066.aspx)). A relevant cyberattack against a federal, state, or local election system that changes vote totals and/or an election outcome for California would count. For purposes of this question, ""voting system"" is a system as defined by the U.S. Election Assistance Commission ([U.S. Election Assistance Commission](https://www.eac.gov/voting-system)). This question will resolve based on available evidence no later than 1 May 2021. -","326",3 +","328",3 "Will there be a complex coordinated terrorist attack (CCTA) in the United States before 1 September 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1781-will-there-be-a-complex-coordinated-terrorist-attack-ccta-in-the-united-states-before-1-september-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","CCTAs are a major concern for law enforcement and emergency planners ([FEMA](https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1532550673102-c4846f270150682decbda99b37524ca6/Planning_Considerations-Complex_Coordinated_Terrorist_Attacks.pdf)). For the purposes of this question, a CCTA is an [1] act of terrorism [2] involving multiple perpetrators working in concert [3] initiated with little or no warning [4] and employing one or more weapon systems (e.g., firearms, explosives, fire as a weapon, poison gas) [5] that is intended to result in large numbers of casualties. For the purposes of this question, ""terrorism"" is as defined by federal law in 18 U.S.C. § 2331(5) ([Cornell](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2331)). Examples of CCTAs include the 2004 Madrid train bombings, the 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, and the 2015 San Bernardino, CA, office attack. -","707",3 -"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. -","826",3 +","709",3 +"When will the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen two million or more travelers in a single day?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1776-when-will-the-transportation-security-administration-tsa-next-screen-two-million-or-more-travelers-in-a-single-day","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 October 2021"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Commercial air travel in the U.S. is increasing, but still remains much lower than before the COVID-19 pandemic ([CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/tsa-checkpoint-numbers-new-pandemic-high/index.html)). The outcome will be determined using Total Traveler Throughput data reported by the TSA ([TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput)). The TSA last screened two million or more travelers in a single day on 8 March 2020. +","832",3 "In Google v. Oracle America, will the Supreme Court rule that the Copyright Act protects the Oracle computer source code that Google copied for its Android operating system?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1775-in-google-v-oracle-america-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-copyright-act-protects-the-oracle-computer-source-code-that-google-copied-for-its-android-operating-system","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To implement its Android operating system, “Google copied 11,500 lines of Oracle’s original, human-readable computer source code, as well as the intricate structure and organization of 37 large packages of computer programs” ([Supremecourt.gov](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-956/93436/20190327160337558_190311%20for%20E-Filing.pdf)). Oracle sued Google for copyright infringement and the issue has reached the Supreme Court ([Oyez](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2020/18-956), [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/google-llc-v-oracle-america-inc/), [Lexology](https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=ecf5cd6d-2b66-4240-b5d9-efab3c581830), [ZDNet](https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-vs-oracle-the-next-chapter/)). Whether the Supreme Court rules on Google’s copying of Oracle’s code being fair use or not is immaterial to the resolution of this question. The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will resolve as ""No."" If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" ","205",3 "In California v. Texas, will the Supreme Court rule that reducing the penalty amount for the individual mandate of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) to zero rendered the individual mandate provision unconstitutional?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1774-in-california-v-texas-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-reducing-the-penalty-amount-for-the-individual-mandate-of-the-affordable-care-act-aca-to-zero-rendered-the-individual-mandate-provision-unconstitutional","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the ACA in NFIB v. Sibelius, Congress subsequently reduced the penalty for failing to acquire health insurance to $0 ([Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/explaining-texas-v-u-s-a-guide-to-the-case-challenging-the-aca/), [Law.cornell.edu](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/5000A) (see §(3)(A)), [The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/365785-congress-repeals-obamacare-mandate-fulfilling-longtime-gop-goal)). Texas sued to have the ACA declared unconstitutional and prevailed in both District Court and the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals ([Politico](https://static.politico.com/17/86/6721f2eb435fb2512430e54c2904/220.pdf), [Casetext](https://casetext.com/case/texas-v-united-states-31)). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2020 term, but if it does not, the question will close as no. If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as ""No."" ","323",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the United States Olympic Committee announce that it is boycotting the 2022 Winter Olympics?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1764-before-1-january-2022-will-the-united-states-olympic-committee-announce-that-it-is-boycotting-the-2022-winter-olympics","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Countries have boycotted the Olympics for various reasons throughout history ([Montreal Gazette](https://montrealgazette.com/sports/montreal-olympics-african-boycott-of-1976-games-changed-the-world), [Dept. of State](https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/qfp/104481.htm), [History.com](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/soviets-announce-boycott-of-1984-olympics)). Some groups are calling on nations to boycott the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics due to China's treatment of its Uighur population ([Daily Sabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/rights-group-criticizes-ioc-over-uighurs-issue-in-china), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/25/trump-administration-china-genocide-uighurs-401581), [Olympic.org](https://www.olympic.org/beijing-2022)). -","628",3 +","630",3 "How many Arab League member states other than Palestine will diplomatically recognize the State of Israel as of 28 August 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1763-how-many-arab-league-member-states-other-than-palestine-will-diplomatically-recognize-the-state-of-israel-as-of-28-august-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""2 or fewer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or more"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Arab League consists of 22 member states ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-15747941), [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2013/07/30/world/meast/arab-league-fast-facts/index.html), [Arab League](http://www.lasportal.org/Pages/Welcome.aspx)). As of 28 August 2020, three members other than Palestine--Egypt, Jordan, and recently the United Arab Emirates--diplomatically recognize Israel, though others could follow ([France24](https://www.france24.com/en/20200824-after-uae-israel-deal-which-arab-nation-will-next-forge-ties), [Economist](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2020/08/22/the-arab-countries-most-likely-to-recognise-israel), [Whitehouse.gov](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/joint-statement-united-states-state-israel-united-arab-emirates/)). A suspended Arab League member diplomatically recognizing Israel would count ([Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/nov/12/syria-suspended-arab-league)). NOTE 2 September 2020: The question is framed ""as of,"" so Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE would count toward resolution so long as they diplomatically recognize Israel as of 28 August 2021. NOTE 14 December 2020: As of the date of this clarification (14 December 2020), for the purposes of this question, the October announcement on the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel constitutes Sudan diplomatically recognizing the State of Israel. ","470",3 -"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst & Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. -","262",3 +"When will the EU amend its Own Resources Decision to help finance the EU's proposed COVID-19 recovery package?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1762-when-will-the-eu-amend-its-own-resources-decision-to-help-finance-the-eu-s-proposed-covid-19-recovery-package","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 October 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 April 2021"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As part of the COVID-19 recovery plan called the ""Next Generation EU"" (NGEU), an amendment of the Own Resources Decision has been proposed ([European Council](https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf), [European Parliament](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/theme-new-boost-for-jobs-growth-and-investment/file-mff-post-2020-own-resources), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_935)). An amendment of the Own Resources Decision requires approval by all Member States in accordance with their constitutional requirements ([Ernst & Young](https://taxnews.ey.com/news/2020-1869-european-council-adopts-conclusions-on-recovery-plan-and-eu-budget-for-2021-2027-including-agreement-on-introduction-of-new-taxes), [European Commission](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_20_1024)). The question would resolve upon the last Member State approving the amendment. When the amended Own Resources Decision would take effect is immaterial. +","266",3 "How many Cybertrucks will Tesla deliver to customers in 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1760-how-many-cybertrucks-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 25,000"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 100,000 but fewer than 175,000"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 175,000 and 250,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 250,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Tesla recently announced it will manufacture the Cybertruck at its new factory location in Austin, TX ([Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-cybertruck-price-interior-release-date-specs-news/), [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/7/22/21334860/tesla-cybertruck-factory-austin-texas-location-model-y), [Teslarati](https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-gigafactory-austin-texas-video/), [Inverse](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/61141-tesla-cybertruck-pics-price)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here: https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. ","368",3 -"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. -","290",3 +"Before 1 January 2023, will Amazon or a subsidiary use a Zoox autonomous vehicle to deliver a package and/or for a public ride-hailing service?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1745-before-1-january-2023-will-amazon-or-a-subsidiary-use-a-zoox-autonomous-vehicle-to-deliver-a-package-and-or-for-a-public-ride-hailing-service","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In late June 2020, Amazon acquired self-driving technology company Zoox for approximately $1.3 billion ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/amazon-spending-1-billion-on-zoox-will-have-to-invest-billions-more.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/07/16/amazon-zoox-deal-details-leak-and-hint-at-expensive-acquihire/#50676c1d4ec2)). While Amazon has framed the acquisition as a move into ride-hailing, there is speculation that the move could lead to greater automation of package deliveries ([Amazon](https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/were-acquiring-zoox-to-help-bring-their-vision-of-autonomous-ride-hailing-to-reality), [India Times](https://www.indiatimes.com/auto/alternative/amazon-zoox-robo-delivery-518186.html), [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidsilver/2020/07/03/autonomous-delivery-will-reduce-the-cost-of-residential-package-delivery/#77928f2f4844)). An autonomous vehicle with a backup driver would count for resolution. A public ride-hailing service does not need to involve payment to count for resolution. +","292",3 "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will debut a passenger vehicle powered by a solid-state battery?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1744-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-debut-a-passenger-vehicle-powered-by-a-solid-state-battery","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1 or 2"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or 4"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""5 or 6"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""7 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Recent advances in battery technology, particularly solid-state batteries, could give rise to a new generation of electric vehicles ([Car and Driver](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a31409442/samsung-solid-state-battery-revealed/), [Electrek](https://electrek.co/2020/04/23/work-on-goodenoughs-breakthrough-solid-state-ev-battery-moves-forward/)). Some companies have announced plans to debut such vehicles, even if not necessarily for mass production yet ([Road/Show](https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-solid-state-battery-electric-olympics/), [Digital Trends](https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/toyota-may-introduce-solid-state-batteries-for-electric-cars-by-2020/)). For examples of vehicle debuts, see: [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/gms-push-to-compete-with-tesla-begins-with-cadillac-lyriq-crossover-debut-thursday.html), [Axios](https://www.axios.com/tesla-debuts-first-electric-pickup-truck-cee48fef-fccc-4390-bdc5-1dfede8a8a3e.html). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). A vehicle would not need to be solely powered by solid-state batteries to count. NOTE 20 August 2020: For purposes of this question, for a vehicle to be considered ""powered"" by a solid-state battery it must be propelled, at least in part, by the use of a solid-state battery NOTE 2 October 2020:  For purposes of this question, a ""passenger vehicle"" is a motor vehicle with at least four wheels, used for the transport of passengers, and comprising no more than eight seats in addition to the driver's seat (http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/stats-definition1.pdf). ","274",3 "When will SpaceX's satellite internet service, Starlink, begin offering commercial service in North America?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1741-when-will-spacex-s-satellite-internet-service-starlink-begin-offering-commercial-service-in-north-america","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Before 1 January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not before 1 July 2021"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of early August 2020, SpaceX had launched nearly 600 of Starlink's expected 12,000 satellites and begun beta testing Starlink's internet service with users across the United States ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/10/spacex-starlink-satellte-production-now-120-per-month.html), [TechCrunch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/15/leak-reveals-details-of-spacexs-starlink-internet-service-beta-program/), [Starlink](https://www.starlink.com/)). For the purposes of this question, commercial service must be non-beta. -","827",3 +","836",3 "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)). -Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#70131c1102191619131104191f1e0330171f1f141a0514171d151e045e131f1d4f0305121a1513044d2105150304191f1e554240331c1102191619131104191f1e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#46252a27342f202f2527322f29283506212929222c3322212b2328326825292b793533242c2325327b17332335322f2928637476052a27342f202f2527322f2928). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","291",3 "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)). -Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6e0d020f1c0708070d0f1a0701001d2e0901010a041b0a09030b001a400d0103511d1b0c040b0d1a533f1b0b1d1a0701004b5c5e2d020f1c0708070d0f1a070100). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","635",3 +Confused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","636",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will a firm or paid backup driver operating a self-driving vehicle face criminal charges in relation to an accident involving a self-driving vehicle in the U.S.?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1696-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, a firm"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, a paid backup driver"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Legal liability for accidents involving self-driving vehicles and features allowing autonomous driving continue to evolve ([Ars Technica](https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/06/tesla-driver-blames-autopilot-for-crash-into-police-car/), [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/us-agency-eyes-fatal-crash-involving-driving-car-66374234), [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/05/technology/uber-self-driving-car-arizona.html), [Centre for International Governance Innovation](https://www.cigionline.org/articles/who-responsible-when-autonomous-systems-fail)). The charges for a firm or backup driver are not required to be related to the same accident for resolving this question. This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1695](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1695-between-10-july-and-31-december-2020-will-a-firm-or-paid-backup-driver-operating-a-self-driving-vehicle-face-criminal-charges-in-relation-to-an-accident-involving-a-self-driving-vehicle-in-the-u-s). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. NOTE 13 November 2020: For the purposes of this question, to ""face criminal charges"" is to be criminally charged, irrespective of any future scheduled trial. Charges filed in 2020 or earlier against a person or firm who/that continues to be criminally charged in 2021 or beyond would not count toward the resolution of this question (2021-2022) unless they/it were criminally charged in relation to a different criminal offense. ","241",3 "How many new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be sold in China in 2021 and 2022 combined?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1698-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2021-and-2022-combined","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.2 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.0 million"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese government announced in March 2020 that it would extend subsidies on NEVs through 2022, though at lower levels than in the past ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-autos-electric-subsidies/china-to-cut-new-energy-vehicle-subsidies-by-10-this-year-idUSKCN225177), [Shine.cn](https://www.shine.cn/biz/auto/2006089801/), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/electric-cars-take-the-spotlight-in-chinas-post-coronavirus-stimulus-plans.html), [Inside EVs](https://insideevs.com/news/428471/china-market-sales-may-2020-nev/)). In 2019, NEV sales were 1.206 million ([Caam.org](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/4/cate_154/con_5228367.html) [in Chinese]). The outcome will be determined using data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) for 2020 (e.g., [Caam.org.cn - Automotive Statistics](http://www.caam.org.cn/chn/21/cate_463/list_1.html), [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/) [in Chinese], [Caam.org.cn](http://www.caam.org.cn/english) [in English], [China Daily](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202001/14/WS5e1cfea2a310128217270a2c.html)). This question is the longer-term companion of question [#1697](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1697-how-many-new-energy-vehicles-nevs-will-be-sold-in-china-in-2020). The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. While they are companions, they are independent questions and the resolution of one will not necessarily impact the other. -","249",3 +","251",3 "How many public DC fast charge electric vehicle charging stations will be available in the United States by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1678-how-many-public-dc-fast-charge-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-will-be-available-in-the-united-states-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 5,300"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 6,500"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem such that potential consumers are waiting for an extensive charging network and businesses are awaiting more electric cars on the roads to justify building more charging stations. This problem is especially relevant for DC fast charge stations that can fully charge the EV in less than 30 minutes ([MY EV](https://www.myev.com/research/buyers-sellers-advice/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-dc-fast-charging)). The outcome will be determined using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Alternative Fuels Data Center on 31 December 2022 at 5:00PM ET ([Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=ELEC)). Data on public DC fast charge stations can be found by selecting the ""Advanced Filters"" tab.  First select ""Location"" on the left and set ""Country"" to be ""United States"" while keeping ""State/Territory"" to be ""All."" Then select ""Fuel"" on the left. Under ""Filter by Fuel Type"" select ""Electric"" and set ""Charger types"" to be only ""DC Fast"" while keeping ""Connectors"" and ""Networks"" to be ""All."" -","233",3 +","234",3 "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 2.5 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 20.0 million"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)). -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a7c4cbc6d5cec1cec4c6d3cec8c9d4e7c0c8c8c3cdd2c3c0cac2c9d389c4c8ca98d4d2c5cdc2c4d39af6d2c2d4d3cec8c9829597e4cbc6d5cec1cec4c6d3cec8c9). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","1162",3 -"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bbd8d7dac9d2ddd2d8dacfd2d4d5c8fbdcd4d4dfd1cedfdcd6ded5cf95d8d4d684c8ced9d1ded8cf86eacedec8cfd2d4d59e898bf8d7dac9d2ddd2d8dacfd2d4d5). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","1956",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#35565954475c535c5654415c5a5b4675525a5a515f40515258505b411b565a580a4640575f5056410864405046415c5a5b100705765954475c535c5654415c5a5b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1166",3 +"Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes, the Olympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, the Paralympics only"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yes, both"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count. +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1977",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a ""bump in the road"" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial. This question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). ","240",3 "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. -Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a8cbc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6dbe8cfc7c7ccc2ddcccfc5cdc6dc86cbc7c597dbddcac2cdcbdc95f9ddcddbdcc1c7c68d9a98ebc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","1059",3 +Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ed8e818c9f848b848e8c998482839ead8a8282898798898a80888399c38e8280d29e988f87888e99d0bc98889e99848283c8dfddae818c9f848b848e8c99848283). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). +","1063",3 "How many total Model 3 and Model Y vehicles will Tesla deliver to customers in 2021 and 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1647-how-many-total-model-3-and-model-y-vehicles-will-tesla-deliver-to-customers-in-2021-and-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Fewer than 700,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 2,200,000"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Adding to ongoing Model 3 car deliveries, Tesla began Model Y SUV deliveries ahead of schedule during the first quarter of 2020 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-deliveries/tesla-sees-strong-model-y-production-deliveries-shares-rise-idUSKBN21K3A3)). Combined deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles during Q1 2020 totaled 76,266 ([Tesla](https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/c1723af4-ffda-4881-ae12-b6f3c972b795)). The outcome will be determined using Tesla's official quarterly updates once available, typically found here https://ir.tesla.com/financial-information/quarterly-results. -","289",3 +","291",3 "How many total Fast Charge (>22kW) public charging points for electric vehicles will be installed in the European Union by 31 December 2022?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1634-how-many-total-fast-charge-22kw-public-charging-points-for-electric-vehicles-will-be-installed-in-the-european-union-by-31-december-2022","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 25,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 25,000 and 30,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 30,000 but less than 35,000"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 35,000 and 40,000, inclusive"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 40,000"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The adoption of electric vehicles is subject to a ""chicken and egg"" problem where potential consumers want a more extensive charging network, but businesses want more electric cars on the roads to justify building those new charging stations ([Smart Energy International](https://www.smart-energy.com/industry-sectors/electric-vehicles/european-countries-with-fastest-ev-charger-adoption-revealed/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM)). Europe has gone from zero Fast Charger locations in 2011 to 15,136 as of 2019. This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using data from the European Alternative Fuels Observatory ([EAFO](https://www.eafo.eu/alternative-fuels/electricity/charging-infra-stats)) for all of 2022, via the graph ""Normal and Fast Public Charging Points (2022)"" when the filter for ""Charger type"" is set to ""Fast (>22kW)"" and the filters at the top of the page are set to ""European Union"" and ""2022"". ","282",3 "Before 1 January 2023, how many major automakers will sell a self-driving passenger vehicle manufactured without a steering wheel?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1633-before-1-january-2023-how-many-major-automakers-will-sell-a-self-driving-passenger-vehicle-manufactured-without-a-steering-wheel","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""0"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Many automakers are planning to unveil more autonomous vehicles in the coming years ([NHTSA](https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety), [U.S. News](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/cars-that-are-almost-self-driving,%20https://www.mobileye.com/future-of-mobility/history-autonomous-driving/)). For the purposes of this question, ""major automakers"" refers to any of the 50 motor vehicle manufacturers included by the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers in its 2017 list ([OICA](http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads/World-Ranking-of-Manufacturers-1.pdf)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021. Vehicles on sale solely for fixed routes (e.g., shuttles) would not count. Presales would not count. Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#05666964776c636c6664716c6a6b7645626a6a616f70616268606b712b666a683a7670676f6066713854706076716c6a6b203735466964776c636c6664716c6a6b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/). -","393",3 +","395",3 "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will the European Union delay and/or relax the implementation and/or enforcement of any of its CO2 emission performance standards for new passenger cars and/or new light commercial vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1620-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-the-european-union-delay-and-or-relax-the-implementation-and-or-enforcement-of-any-of-its-co2-emission-performance-standards-for-new-passenger-cars-and-or-new-light-commercial-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Due to impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the auto industry in the EU is seeking relief from CO2 emission performance standards regulations ([European Automobile Manufacturers Association](https://www.acea.be/news/article/covid-19-auto-sector-letter-to-von-der-leyen), [Europa](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles/regulation_en), [Electrive](https://www.electrive.com/2020/03/30/european-car-industry-lobby-groups-question-co2-targets-in-the-face-of-covid19/)). For more information on EU CO2 emission performance standards, see [REGULATION (EU) 2019/631](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32019R0631), particularly Article 4 and the annexes. The date a change would take effect is immaterial to the resolution of this question. ","186",3 "What will be the 2022 industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries used in battery-powered electric vehicles?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1583-what-will-be-the-2022-industry-wide-average-cost-of-li-ion-batteries-used-in-battery-powered-electric-vehicles","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than $80 per kWh"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $80 and $100 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $100 but less than $120 per kWh"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between $120 and $140 per kWh, inclusive"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than $140 per kWh"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Lowering the cost of battery packs through R&D investments, manufacturing improvements, and economies of scale is a major consideration for bringing down the price of battery-powered electric vehicles (BEVs) and making them more competitive with gasoline-fueled internal combustion engines ([Clean Technica](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/12/teslas-advantage-with-its-battery-technology-low-cost/), [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/8441929c-5e43-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and resolved using the Mack Institute's analysis for 2022, which will replicate an approach for calculating the industry-wide average cost of Li-ion batteries published in a [2015 Nature Climate Change study](https://mediamanager.sei.org/documents/Publications/SEI-Nature-pre-pub-2015-falling-costs-battery-packs-BEVs.pdf). The Mack Institute found that there was ""a 16% annual decline in the cost of battery packs between 2007 and 2019, and the industry-wide average cost of battery packs in 2019 was US$ 161 per kWh"" ([The Mack Institute](https://mackinstitute.wharton.upenn.edu/2020/electric-vehicle-battery-costs-decline/)). ","281",3 "What total percentage of global vehicle sales in 2022 will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs)? ","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1582-what-total-percentage-of-global-vehicle-sales-in-2022-will-be-battery-electric-vehicles-bevs-and-plug-in-hybrid-electric-vehicles-phevs","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Less than 2.5%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""More than 8.5%"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Climate change and other environmental concerns continue to drive a greater focus on electric vehicles ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-geneva-carbon-explainer/explainer-why-automakers-are-on-a-drive-to-sell-electric-cars-in-europe-idUSKBN20Q1MM), [NASDAQ](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/oil-prices-are-tumbling-but-global-electric-vehicles-will-be-just-fine-says-ubs-2020-03-11), [CSP](https://www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/what-global-economic-slump-means-evs), [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2019)). This question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and the outcome will be determined using open source data provided by [EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/) for 2022, expected to be released in early 2023. The global BEV & PHEV share for 2019 was 2.5% ([EV-volumes.com](http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/)). In the event that the relevant data for 2022 are not available from EV-volumes.com in 2023, this question will be resolved using data from other credible automotive industry sources. -","425",3 +","426",3 "Before 1 July 2021, will the Chilean government pass legislation that caps administrative fees and/or operating profits of the country's pension fund managers?","https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1411-before-1-july-2021-will-the-chilean-government-pass-legislation-that-caps-administrative-fees-and-or-operating-profits-of-the-country-s-pension-fund-managers","Good Judgment Open","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Amid large-scale economic protests, calls for reform of Chile’s pension system have grown ([Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/4f8107f8-0fd4-11ea-a7e6-62bf4f9e548a), [AP](https://apnews.com/31ab8e9f5b9a467abdda53616edc72c2), [IPE](https://www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/www.ipe.com/reports/special-reports/global-defined-contribution/chile-chilean-pensions-under-pressure/10018671.fullarticle), [El Universal](https://www.eluniversal.com.mx/mundo/diez-puntos-para-entender-el-sistema-de-pensiones-que-no-quieren-los-chilenos) [in Spanish]). A constitutional amendment to the same effect would count. Legislation enabling or delegating new regulatory authority to cap administrative fees and/or operating profits would count. Please note that this question is a companion to Question #1417, which closes in 2020 ([Question #1417](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1417)). We will be analyzing the differences between forecasts with the different closing dates. ","265",3 diff --git a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json index 9befc95..ef719ed 100644 --- a/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json +++ b/data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json @@ -7,17 +7,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "32", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "40", + "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -33,27 +33,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "36", - "numforecasters": "32", + "numforecasts": "54", + "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -64,37 +64,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "21", - "numforecasters": "19", + "numforecasts": "32", + "numforecasters": "29", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -114,8 +114,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "28", - "numforecasters": "25", + "numforecasts": "37", + "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -126,7 +126,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -151,12 +151,12 @@ }, { "name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "45", - "numforecasters": "33", + "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -172,22 +172,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "84", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -207,7 +207,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "41", + "numforecasts": "42", "numforecasters": "32", "stars": 3 }, @@ -219,17 +219,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -248,8 +248,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "93", - "numforecasters": "50", + "numforecasts": "103", + "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -260,22 +260,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 15,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -309,8 +309,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "72", - "numforecasters": "33", + "numforecasts": "78", + "numforecasters": "35", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -331,17 +331,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -370,8 +370,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "170", - "numforecasters": "66", + "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -407,22 +407,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -436,8 +436,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "251", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -453,22 +453,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -497,8 +497,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "158", - "numforecasters": "59", + "numforecasts": "175", + "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -518,7 +518,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasts": "121", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, @@ -530,12 +530,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -544,7 +544,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "67", + "numforecasts": "68", "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 3 }, @@ -565,8 +565,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", - "numforecasters": "340", + "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasters": "344", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -601,8 +601,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "310", - "numforecasters": "242", + "numforecasts": "321", + "numforecasters": "247", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -622,8 +622,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "326", - "numforecasters": "294", + "numforecasts": "334", + "numforecasters": "298", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -643,8 +643,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "192", - "numforecasters": "170", + "numforecasts": "198", + "numforecasters": "174", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -660,12 +660,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -679,8 +679,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "223", - "numforecasters": "172", + "numforecasts": "230", + "numforecasters": "175", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -715,7 +715,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "61", + "numforecasts": "62", "numforecasters": "24", "stars": 3 }, @@ -727,17 +727,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -751,8 +751,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "139", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "143", + "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -763,17 +763,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -783,11 +783,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than 2.500", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "106", + "numforecasts": "107", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3 }, @@ -813,29 +813,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "106", - "numforecasters": "51", - "stars": 3 - }, - { - "title": "Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-a-dogecoin-on-15-march-2021-be-higher-as-compared-to-the-end-of-day-price-on-15-february-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "255", - "numforecasters": "74", + "numforecasts": "109", + "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -860,8 +839,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", - "numforecasters": "305", + "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasters": "311", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -881,7 +860,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "68", + "numforecasts": "69", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3 }, @@ -902,7 +881,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "144", + "numforecasts": "147", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, @@ -923,7 +902,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "171", + "numforecasts": "177", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3 }, @@ -944,7 +923,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasts": "85", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3 }, @@ -965,8 +944,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "188", - "numforecasters": "109", + "numforecasts": "191", + "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -986,8 +965,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "numforecasters": "131", + "numforecasts": "166", + "numforecasters": "132", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1017,8 +996,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", - "numforecasters": "113", + "numforecasts": "159", + "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1038,7 +1017,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasts": "149", "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1079,7 +1058,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "128", + "numforecasts": "130", "numforecasters": "51", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1091,17 +1070,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "139", - "numforecasters": "83", + "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1112,17 +1091,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "103", - "numforecasters": "69", + "numforecasts": "106", + "numforecasters": "70", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1142,8 +1121,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "252", - "numforecasters": "106", + "numforecasts": "258", + "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1173,8 +1152,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "226", - "numforecasters": "138", + "numforecasts": "232", + "numforecasters": "139", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1185,7 +1164,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1195,12 +1174,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1209,8 +1188,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "138", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1277,8 +1256,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "190", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1298,8 +1277,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "140", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1319,15 +1298,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "228", - "numforecasters": "136", + "numforecasts": "236", + "numforecasters": "138", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a8cbc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6dbe8cfc7c7ccc2ddcccfc5cdc6dc86cbc7c597dbddcac2cdcbdc95f9ddcddbdcc1c7c68d9a98ebc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -1340,8 +1319,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "344", - "numforecasters": "188", + "numforecasts": "349", + "numforecasters": "190", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1362,21 +1341,21 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "328", + "numforecasts": "336", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1388,17 +1367,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "7 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8 and 14", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1412,8 +1391,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "348", - "numforecasters": "98", + "numforecasts": "369", + "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1433,8 +1412,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "150", - "numforecasters": "111", + "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasters": "112", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1454,7 +1433,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "242", + "numforecasts": "244", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1466,16 +1445,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1487,17 +1466,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 226 seats", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1506,8 +1485,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "164", + "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1518,12 +1497,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1532,7 +1511,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "72", + "numforecasts": "73", "numforecasters": "35", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1558,7 +1537,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "167", + "numforecasts": "170", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1570,16 +1549,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", + "numforecasts": "94", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1601,21 +1580,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "219", + "numforecasts": "221", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1636,7 +1615,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "159", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1683,7 +1662,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "257", + "numforecasts": "258", "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1695,17 +1674,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "238", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1729,27 +1708,6 @@ "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "362", - "numforecasters": "216", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy", @@ -1772,7 +1730,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasts": "185", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1784,7 +1742,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1794,11 +1752,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasts": "203", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1806,7 +1764,7 @@ "title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#096a65687b606f606a687d6066677a496e66666d637c6d6e646c677d276a6664367a7c6b636c6a7d34587c6c7a7d6066672c3b394a65687b606f606a687d606667). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", + "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3a59565b48535c53595b4e535554497a5d55555e504f5e5d575f544e1459555705494f58505f594e076b4f5f494e5355541f080a79565b48535c53595b4e535554). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicaragua", @@ -1824,8 +1782,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "171", - "numforecasters": "116", + "numforecasts": "172", + "numforecasters": "117", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1860,7 +1818,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "257", + "numforecasts": "259", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1881,7 +1839,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "215", + "numforecasts": "216", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, @@ -1907,8 +1865,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "324", - "numforecasters": "139", + "numforecasts": "326", + "numforecasters": "140", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -1975,7 +1933,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "173", + "numforecasts": "174", "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2001,8 +1959,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "451", - "numforecasters": "193", + "numforecasts": "453", + "numforecasters": "194", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2032,8 +1990,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "414", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "417", + "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2074,7 +2032,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "352", + "numforecasts": "353", "numforecasters": "225", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2095,7 +2053,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "279", + "numforecasts": "280", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2116,8 +2074,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "413", - "numforecasters": "106", + "numforecasts": "416", + "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2147,7 +2105,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "317", + "numforecasts": "320", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2168,7 +2126,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "241", + "numforecasts": "243", "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2204,7 +2162,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "254", + "numforecasts": "257", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2246,8 +2204,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "388", - "numforecasters": "203", + "numforecasts": "390", + "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2267,7 +2225,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasts": "103", "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2355,8 +2313,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "125", - "numforecasters": "29", + "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2376,8 +2334,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "415", - "numforecasters": "196", + "numforecasts": "419", + "numforecasters": "198", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2388,7 +2346,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2403,7 +2361,7 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2417,7 +2375,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "190", + "numforecasts": "195", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2438,46 +2396,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "539", + "numforecasts": "543", "numforecasters": "198", "stars": 3 }, - { - "title": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.\nNOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 5.0%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 8.0%", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "529", - "numforecasters": "247", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021", @@ -2510,8 +2432,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1644", - "numforecasters": "575", + "numforecasts": "1663", + "numforecasters": "578", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2541,7 +2463,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "506", + "numforecasts": "507", "numforecasters": "214", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2553,17 +2475,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "319", - "numforecasters": "200", + "numforecasts": "320", + "numforecasters": "201", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2574,17 +2496,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "511", - "numforecasters": "227", + "numforecasts": "517", + "numforecasters": "232", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2625,7 +2547,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "314", + "numforecasts": "316", "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2646,7 +2568,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "306", + "numforecasts": "308", "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2708,8 +2630,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "190", - "numforecasters": "110", + "numforecasts": "194", + "numforecasters": "113", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2750,8 +2672,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "315", - "numforecasters": "167", + "numforecasts": "317", + "numforecasters": "168", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2771,7 +2693,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "266", + "numforecasts": "268", "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2807,7 +2729,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1394", + "numforecasts": "1402", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2942,7 +2864,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "541", + "numforecasts": "543", "numforecasters": "151", "stars": 3 }, @@ -2963,8 +2885,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "722", - "numforecasters": "155", + "numforecasts": "726", + "numforecasters": "156", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -2975,17 +2897,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2999,8 +2921,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "452", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "460", + "numforecasters": "213", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3035,7 +2957,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "464", + "numforecasts": "465", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3057,17 +2979,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "446", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "450", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3108,7 +3030,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "410", + "numforecasts": "411", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3120,7 +3042,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "England", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3130,7 +3052,7 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3154,8 +3076,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "339", - "numforecasters": "113", + "numforecasts": "341", + "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3190,7 +3112,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "676", + "numforecasts": "677", "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3211,7 +3133,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1139", + "numforecasts": "1140", "numforecasters": "452", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3232,7 +3154,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "384", + "numforecasts": "385", "numforecasters": "160", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3253,7 +3175,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "326", + "numforecasts": "328", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3274,7 +3196,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "707", + "numforecasts": "709", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3296,21 +3218,21 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 October 2021", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "826", + "numforecasts": "832", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3373,7 +3295,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "628", + "numforecasts": "630", "numforecasters": "184", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3431,16 +3353,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasts": "266", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3488,7 +3410,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3498,17 +3420,17 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "290", - "numforecasters": "106", + "numforecasts": "292", + "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3574,15 +3496,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "827", - "numforecasters": "284", + "numforecasts": "836", + "numforecasters": "286", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#70131c1102191619131104191f1e0330171f1f141a0514171d151e045e131f1d4f0305121a1513044d2105150304191f1e554240331c1102191619131104191f1e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#46252a27342f202f2527322f29283506212929222c3322212b2328326825292b793533242c2325327b17332335322f2928637476052a27342f202f2527322f2928). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3603,7 +3525,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6e0d020f1c0708070d0f1a0701001d2e0901010a041b0a09030b001a400d0103511d1b0c040b0d1a533f1b0b1d1a0701004b5c5e2d020f1c0708070d0f1a070100). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3616,7 +3538,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "635", + "numforecasts": "636", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3683,7 +3605,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "249", + "numforecasts": "251", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3719,7 +3641,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "233", + "numforecasts": "234", "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3727,7 +3649,7 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a7c4cbc6d5cec1cec4c6d3cec8c9d4e7c0c8c8c3cdd2c3c0cac2c9d389c4c8ca98d4d2c5cdc2c4d39af6d2c2d4d3cec8c9829597e4cbc6d5cec1cec4c6d3cec8c9). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#35565954475c535c5654415c5a5b4675525a5a515f40515258505b411b565a580a4640575f5056410864405046415c5a5b100705765954475c535c5654415c5a5b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 2.5 million", @@ -3755,15 +3677,15 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1162", - "numforecasters": "170", + "numforecasts": "1166", + "numforecasters": "173", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bbd8d7dac9d2ddd2d8dacfd2d4d5c8fbdcd4d4dfd1cedfdcd6ded5cf95d8d4d684c8ced9d1ded8cf86eacedec8cfd2d4d59e898bf8d7dac9d2ddd2d8dacfd2d4d5). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the Olympics only", @@ -3777,24 +3699,24 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1956", - "numforecasters": "804", + "numforecasts": "1977", + "numforecasters": "815", "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3815,7 +3737,7 @@ "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a8cbc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6dbe8cfc7c7ccc2ddcccfc5cdc6dc86cbc7c597dbddcac2cdcbdc95f9ddcddbdcc1c7c68d9a98ebc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ed8e818c9f848b848e8c998482839ead8a8282898798898a80888399c38e8280d29e988f87888e99d0bc98889e99848283c8dfddae818c9f848b848e8c99848283). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -3828,8 +3750,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1059", - "numforecasters": "461", + "numforecasts": "1063", + "numforecasters": "462", "stars": 3 }, { @@ -3864,7 +3786,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "289", + "numforecasts": "291", "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3 }, @@ -3931,7 +3853,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "393", + "numforecasts": "395", "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3 }, @@ -4024,7 +3946,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", + "numforecasts": "426", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.csv b/data/hypermind-questions.csv index e055f7c..a0563f8 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.csv +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.csv @@ -1,34 +1,34 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" "In 2021, will Donald Trump be barred from holding future elected office in the USA?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 "Will Kamala Harris be the first woman to become president of the United States?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will settle when a woman becomes president of the United States of America.",,3 -"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",,3 +"At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will the USA earn more medals than they ever did during Obama's presidency (121)?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes, more than 121"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No, not more than 121"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Barack Obama was president, the United States won: - 121 medals in 2016 - 104 medals in 2012 - 112 medals in 2008 24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are canceled in 2021, this question will be resolved according to the medals obtained at the next Olympics.",,3 "In 2021, will Joe Biden invoke the Insurrection Act?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=USA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Insurrection Act is a United States federal law that empowers the President of the United States to deploy U.S. military and federalized National Guard troops within the United States in particular circumstances, such as to suppress civil disorder, insurrection and rebellion. See: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) ",,3 -"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5673076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14423076923076925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6078431372549019,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.1176470588235294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.24509803921568626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3 -"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 -"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"Who will be elected president of France in 2022?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.02912621359223301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pierre de Villiers"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.03883495145631068,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5436893203883496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Valérie Pécresse"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Piolle"",""probability"":0.00970873786407767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another woman"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another man"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"Who will compete in the second round of the French presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Macron and Le Pen"",""probability"":0.6037735849056604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Macron, but not Le Pen"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Le Pen, but not Macron"",""probability"":0.2358490566037736,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neither of them"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The French presidential election is scheduled in the spring of 2022. In this question, ""Le Pen"" refers to Marine Le pen, not to her niece Marion Marechal Le Pen.",,3 +"On April 1, 2021, will Frédérique Vidal still be minister of higher education, research and innovation in the French government?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9705882352941175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.02941176470588235,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 +"In France, when will the first round of the regional elections take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In June, 2021 (as planned)"",""probability"":0.9223300970873787,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Later in 2021"",""probability"":0.05825242718446602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not in 2021"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 "At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, will Japan or France earn more medals?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Japan"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Same medals count"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","24/01/2021: If the Tokyo Olympics are cancelled, or if they take place elsewhere than in Japan, the shares will be paid out at the following prices: France = 23 H Japan = 74 H Same = 3 H",,3 -"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.020408163265306124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.09183673469387756,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.23469387755102042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.39795918367346944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.25510204081632654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)",,3 -"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9215686274509803,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",,3 -"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.1839080459770115,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.09195402298850575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.05747126436781609,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.6666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".",,3 +"In France, when will the 7 day average of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 fall back below 5,000?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=FRA","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Nov-Dec, 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""January 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""February 2021"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""March 2021"",""probability"":0.010101010101010102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""April 2021"",""probability"":0.11111111111111112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""May 2021"",""probability"":0.26262626262626265,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""June 2021"",""probability"":0.37373737373737376,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe after June 2021"",""probability"":0.24242424242424243,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the numbers published by OurWorldInData here: [https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-cases-7-day?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=2020-08-08..latest&country=~FRA®ion=World)",,3 +"Will there be a deadly confrontation between Moroccan and Algerian armed forces in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9207920792079207,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","To be considered ""deadly"", the military confrontation - Including indirect clashes via drones, missiles, cyber, etc. - must cause at least one death among military personnel on either side. ",,3 +"Following the next parliamentary elections win Morocco, who will succeed Saad-Eddine El Othmani as prime minister?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Saad-Eddine El Othmani"",""probability"":0.15533980582524273,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdelilah Benkirane"",""probability"":0.07766990291262137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else from PJD"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else not from PJD"",""probability"":0.7475728155339806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in September 2021. The PJD (Justice and Development Party) has been in power for the last ten years. Shall the party be renamed or splinter before the elections, any personality issued for its ranks before the renaming or split shall still be considered ""from PJD"".",,3 "In the Ivory Coast, how many seats will the RHDP party of president Ouattara win in the March 2021 parliamentary elections?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""> 148 (more than currently)"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""128 (absolute majority) to 148 "",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""< 128"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The presidential party RHDP currently occupies 148 seats in the 255 seats assembly. An absolute majority requires 128 seats.",,3 "In 2021, will Faustin-Archange Touadéra lose power in the Central African Republic?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.030303030303030304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9696969696969697,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Touadéra, president of the Central African Republic, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Touadéra has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3 "In 2021, will Abdelmadjid Tebboune lose power in Algeria?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the other will be worthless (0ℍ). Tebboune, president of Algeria, will be deemed to have lost power in the following cases: 1) death; 2) imprisonment, house arrest, or capture by hostile forces for at least 48 hours; 3) resignation; 4) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 5) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within his country; 6) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first four situations, the question will close immediately; for options 5 and 6, we will observe a two-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media, then judge the date of power-loss retroactively. However, if 31 December 2021, the question's expiry date, falls within the 2-week waiting period for options 5 or 6, we will consider that Tebboune has lost power before the end of the year (local time).",,3 "In Congo, who will win the (March) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Denis Sassou Nguesso"",""probability"":0.9428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guy Brice Parfait Kolélas"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mathias Dzon"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on march 21, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3 "In Chad, who will win the (April) 2021 presidential election?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Idriss Déby Itno"",""probability"":0.951923076923077,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Saleh Kezabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mahamat Ahmad Alhabo"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Succès Masra"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned on April 11, 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question.",,3 -"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.8673469387755103,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.010204081632653062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.10204081632653061,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",,3 -"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.01941747572815534,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.21359223300970875,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.3980582524271845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.14563106796116507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.2233009708737864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3 +"In Somalia, who will win the (Feb) 2021 presidential election? ","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=AFR","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed"",""probability"":0.9313725490196079,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abshir Aden Ferro"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sharif Sheikh Ahmed"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No election in 2021"",""probability"":0.0392156862745098,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A presidential election is planned for February 2021. It could also be pushed back to a later date in 2021, in which case it would just delay the resolution of this question. 27 Feb 2021 - Somalian president Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, whose term expired in February, has delayed the election and hasn't set any date for it. Violent clashes between the government and opposition forces have erupted...",,3 +"When will worldwide commercial air traffic rise back above 100,000 flights per day?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Q1, 2021 (or before)"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.2857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.4476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.11428571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.13333333333333333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will be settled according to the data published by [Flightradar24.com](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) in the ""Number of commercial flights..."" chart.",,3 "In 2021, who will succeed Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister of Israel?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another Likud politician"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another politician not from Likud"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ, while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Parliamentary elections are scheduled in March 2021.",,3 "In 2021, how much will the arctic sea ice shrink?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Worse than the 2012 record"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Not worse than 2020"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Shares of the correct outcome will be worth 100ℍ while the others will be worthless (0ℍ). Follow daily updates of the arctic sea ice shrinkage with this link",,3 -"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.1188118811881188,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.7920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",,3 +"Who will succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Marcus Söder (CSU)"",""probability"":0.19626168224299065,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet (CDU)"",""probability"":0.6542056074766356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Another member of CDU/CSU"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of SPD"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A member of the Green party"",""probability"":0.10280373831775702,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Someone else"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Germany at the end of September.",,3 "In 2021, when will North Korea first launch a ballistic missile?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=INT","Hypermind","[{""name"":""in Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.04950495049504951,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q2, 2021"",""probability"":0.31683168316831684,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q3, 2021"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""in Q4, 2021"",""probability"":0.15841584158415842,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Perhaps later"",""probability"":0.3465346534653465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Only MRBM, IRBM, LRICBM and FRICBM will be considered, excluding SRBM short-range missiles.",,3 -"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.020408163265306124,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.6836734693877551,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.2142857142857143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.0816326530612245,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 -"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 +"At the end of April, which country will have the MOST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.02752293577981652,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.6422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.25688073394495414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.07339449541284404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 +"At the end of April, which country will have the LEAST stringent government policies against Covid-19?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""USA"",""probability"":0.8811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.0297029702970297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.06930693069306931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Government Stringency Index is a composite measure based on nine response indicators including school closures, workplace closures, and travel bans, rescaled to a value from 0 to 100 (100 = strictest). If policies vary at the subnational level, the index is shown as the response level of the strictest sub-region. This question will be resolved according to the data published by Our World in Data in the chart below: ",,3 "When will the FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=COV","Hypermind","[{""name"":""In 2020"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Q1, 2021"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maybe later"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,3 "Which threshold will the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 32,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 28,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the Dow Jones index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3 "Which threshold will the French index CAC 40 hit first?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""≥ 6,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""≤ 5,000"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question starts on November 16, 2020, but there is no time limit on its resolution. It will be resolved as soon as the value of the CAC 40 index reaches or crosses either of the specified thresholds, even temporarily.",,3 -"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",,3 -"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9306930693069307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06930693069306931,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3 +"Will the new Bond film ""No Time to Die"" be released in 2021?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On January 22, MGM pushed back the film's release to October 8, 2021... 23/01/21: It doesn't matter how the movie is released - online or in theaters - as long as it is via a distribution channel approved by MGM.",,3 +"In 2021, will the Olympic Games take place?","https://predict.hypermind.com/dash/dash/dash.html?list=ECO","Hypermind","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Olympics Games are currently scheduled to start in Japan in July 2021... This question will resolve as ""Yes"" if the Olympic Games take place anywhere at anytime in 2021.",,3 "What will be the year-over-year growth rate of U.S. Nominal GDP in Q1 2021?","https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase/showcase.html","Hypermind","[]","This question compares 2021:Q1 to 2020:Q1. It should be read as: “What will be the Year-over-year growth rate in Q1 2021?"" The 'answer' to this question will be based on the advance estimate of nominal GDP growth in 2021:Q1, which will be published in the spring of 2021. All of the information used to calculate the growth rate will appear in the BEA website, Table 1.1.5, line 1: diff --git a/data/hypermind-questions.json b/data/hypermind-questions.json index bb6d149..5fd2094 100644 --- a/data/hypermind-questions.json +++ b/data/hypermind-questions.json @@ -44,12 +44,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, more than 121", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, not more than 121", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -82,57 +82,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.02912621359223301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.03883495145631068, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.1346153846153846, + "probability": 0.14563106796116507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5673076923076923, + "probability": 0.5436893203883496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.04854368932038835, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14423076923076925, + "probability": 0.14563106796116507, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,22 +146,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.6078431372549019, + "probability": 0.6037735849056604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.1176470588235294, + "probability": 0.11320754716981131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.24509803921568626, + "probability": 0.2358490566037736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.04716981132075472, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -175,12 +175,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.9705882352941175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02941176470588235, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -194,17 +194,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.9223300970873787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.05825242718446602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01941747572815534, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -257,32 +257,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.020408163265306124, + "probability": 0.010101010101010102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.09183673469387756, + "probability": 0.11111111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.23469387755102042, + "probability": 0.26262626262626265, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.39795918367346944, + "probability": 0.37373737373737376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.25510204081632654, + "probability": 0.24242424242424243, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -296,12 +296,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "probability": 0.07920792079207921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9215686274509803, + "probability": 0.9207920792079207, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -315,22 +315,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.1839080459770115, + "probability": 0.15533980582524273, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.09195402298850575, + "probability": 0.07766990291262137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.05747126436781609, + "probability": 0.01941747572815534, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.6666666666666665, + "probability": 0.7475728155339806, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -479,27 +479,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", - "probability": 0.8673469387755103, + "probability": 0.9313725490196079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro", - "probability": 0.010204081632653062, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed", - "probability": 0.010204081632653062, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.010204081632653062, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.10204081632653061, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -513,27 +513,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.21359223300970875, + "probability": 0.2857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.3980582524271845, + "probability": 0.4476190476190476, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.14563106796116507, + "probability": 0.11428571428571427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.2233009708737864, + "probability": 0.13333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -595,32 +595,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.19626168224299065, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.7920792079207921, + "probability": 0.6542056074766356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.10280373831775702, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -668,22 +668,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.020408163265306124, + "probability": 0.02752293577981652, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.6836734693877551, + "probability": 0.6422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.2142857142857143, + "probability": 0.25688073394495414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.0816326530612245, + "probability": 0.07339449541284404, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -697,22 +697,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.06930693069306931, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -788,12 +788,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -807,12 +807,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9306930693069307, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv b/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv index 90f0f89..eda0a72 100644 --- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.csv @@ -4,8 +4,8 @@ "2024 US Presidential Election: 2024 Democratic Nominee","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.02658891439825921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3013410298469377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.31499062353338436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.03477011882849281,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.008950723658819932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04304871854956253,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0.017725942932172806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.017725942932172806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tulsi Gabbard"",""probability"":0.013492881933444972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.02658891439825921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.017725942932172806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.04304871854956253,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beto O'Rourke"",""probability"":0.013492881933444972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Gates"",""probability"":0.008950723658819932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katie Porter"",""probability"":0.008950723658819932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Meghan Markle"",""probability"":0.017725942932172806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0.008950723658819932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0.013492881933444972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0.017725942932172806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tammy Duckworth"",""probability"":0.013492881933444972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Ossoff"",""probability"":0.017725942932172806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Oprah Winfrey"",""probability"":0.013492881933444972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2024 US Presidential Election: Winning Party","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Democrats"",""probability"":0.49722140976893836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republicans"",""probability"":0.47484644632933615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Independent"",""probability"":0.027932143901725656,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2024 US Presidential Election: Republican Ticket (Nominee + VP)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Hawley + Haley"",""probability"":0.04277908454782048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump + Pence"",""probability"":0.16859992145317484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump + Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.08513461380308829,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlson + Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.04277908454782048,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump + Hawley"",""probability"":0.16859992145317484,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hawley + Donald 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Hamon"",""probability"":0.014939155161628677,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next German Chancellor: To Replace Merkel As Chancellor","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.470841460109662,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.04035783943797102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04035783943797102,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.008391233942548431,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.03259671646913045,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.357601108944047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.04985380165867009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next French Presidential Election: To Win","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Xavier 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Berry (Green)"",""probability"":0.00902096598360427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten (Heritage)"",""probability"":0.003629950455553909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London (Ind)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)"",""probability"":0.0045329232056916975,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose (Ind)"",""probability"":0.026797575421883272,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid (WEP)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons (UKIP)"",""probability"":0.003629950455553909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Piers Corbyn"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nims Obunge (Ind)"",""probability"":0.0018185979328224175,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Count 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35%"",""probability"":0.04261025029797378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""35-40%"",""probability"":0.08134684147794995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40-45%"",""probability"":0.2753277711561383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45-50%"",""probability"":0.3253873659117998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Over 50%"",""probability"":0.2753277711561383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "London Mayoral Election: Winner without Sadiq Khan","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.04122517504215602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8245035008431204,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sian Berry"",""probability"":0.04122517504215602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.033297256764818324,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Kurten"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Gammons"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Farah London"",""probability"":0.008571571048369074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.025462608114272835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "London Mayoral Election: Most votes match bet","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Max Fosh"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 @@ -34,6 +34,7 @@ "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Will Nicola Sturgeon be First Minister on 1st Jan 2022?","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: SNP Total Seats Over/Under","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Over"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Under"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Edinburgh Central","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.608410155137639,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.07964642030892728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.2695724995071385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.00867436260790297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scottish Greens"",""probability"":0.033696562438392315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Glasgow Southside","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8406168766829473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.13209693776446316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.01813095224218122,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.009155233310408337,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Andy Burnham (Lab)"",""probability"":0.947622401810383,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Evans (Cons)"",""probability"":0.02842867205431149,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Melanie Horrocks (Green)"",""probability"":0.009570048018283076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Simon Lepori (ld)"",""probability"":0.009570048018283076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Buckley (Reform)"",""probability"":0.004808830098739257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Conservative Party Leader: Next Permanent Leader","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Dehenna Davison"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.20231888744285167,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nickie Aiken"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lee Anderson"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire Coutinho"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darren Henry"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alicia Kearns"",""probability"":0.0030196848872067416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicola Richards"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Lewis"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eddie Hughes"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Victoria Atkins"",""probability"":0.009059054661620224,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suella Braverman"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil O'Brien"",""probability"":0.011901111026050099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Theresa May"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kwasi Kwarteng"",""probability"":0.017851666539075148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.046688974025273465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.017851666539075148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0.017851666539075148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.06743962914761722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny 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Williamson"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.017851666539075148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kemi Badenoch"",""probability"":0.011901111026050099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Jenkyns"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0.011901111026050099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bim Afolami"",""probability"":0.011901111026050099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Helen Whately"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Barclay"",""probability"":0.011901111026050099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Damian Hinds"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Davis"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kit Malthouse"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Harper"",""probability"":0.009059054661620224,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Cameron"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Fabricant"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Graham Brady"",""probability"":0.011901111026050099,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Osborne"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Francois"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margot James"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Bradley"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alan Mak"",""probability"":0.0030196848872067416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ben Wallace"",""probability"":0.017851666539075148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Theresa Villiers"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Jenrick"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Buckland"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alok Sharma"",""probability"":0.009059054661620224,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Grant Shapps"",""probability"":0.017851666539075148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julian Smith"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nadhim Zahawi"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jesse Norman"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nigel Adams"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Freeman"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Pursglove"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Therese Coffey"",""probability"":0.006009471904243119,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Aaron Bell"",""probability"":0.0030196848872067416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "West Midlands Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)","https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights","Ladbrokes","[{""name"":""Andy Street (Cons)"",""probability"":0.6997822270433548,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Wilkinson (LD)"",""probability"":0.009214954078887743,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne (Lab)"",""probability"":0.2863724190669729,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ashvir Sangha (Ind)"",""probability"":0.004630399810784388,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 diff --git a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json index 9f21ee8..cbf2359 100644 --- a/data/ladbrokes-questions.json +++ b/data/ladbrokes-questions.json @@ -861,37 +861,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.452482924641184, + "probability": 0.470841460109662, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.04115439933641245, + "probability": 0.04035783943797102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.04115439933641245, + "probability": 0.04035783943797102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008556855307570905, + "probability": 0.008391233942548431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.04115439933641245, + "probability": 0.03259671646913045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3646592346264394, + "probability": 0.357601108944047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.05083778741556832, + "probability": 0.04985380165867009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -904,82 +904,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.023053988786678126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francois Baroin", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.023053988786678126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve", - "probability": 0.022408732742443014, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolas Sarkozy", - "probability": 0.029303727432425482, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michel Barnier", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.03732550565462173, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Lisnard", - "probability": 0.014939155161628677, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marion Marechal", - "probability": 0.014939155161628677, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ségolène Royal", - "probability": 0.029303727432425482, + "probability": 0.030147523797963708, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valerie Pecresse", - "probability": 0.022408732742443014, + "probability": 0.023053988786678126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.4562256965527321, + "probability": 0.4992583558898448, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.16931042516512498, + "probability": 0.1741856930549014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.03732550565462173, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.03732550565462173, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurent Wauquiez", - "probability": 0.022408732742443014, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan", - "probability": 0.022408732742443014, + "probability": 0.023053988786678126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benoit Hamon", - "probability": 0.014939155161628677, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1786,87 +1786,92 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan (Lab)", - "probability": 0.877670711241192, + "probability": 0.87607458110003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey (Cons)", - "probability": 0.05369279645240234, + "probability": 0.053595150843766544, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sian Berry (Green)", - "probability": 0.009037401383077622, + "probability": 0.00902096598360427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten (Heritage)", - "probability": 0.003636563903150756, + "probability": 0.003629950455553909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London (Ind)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)", - "probability": 0.004541181789506666, + "probability": 0.0045329232056916975, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose (Ind)", - "probability": 0.02684639822620117, + "probability": 0.026797575421883272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid (WEP)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)", - "probability": 0.003636563903150756, + "probability": 0.003629950455553909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nims Obunge (Ind)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "DrillMinister", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Winston McKenzie", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kam Balayev (Renew)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox (Reclaim)", - "probability": 0.004541181789506666, + "probability": 0.0045329232056916975, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Fosh (Ind)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)", + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2554,6 +2559,34 @@ ], "stars": 2 }, + { + "title": "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Glasgow Southside", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", + "platform": "Ladbrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0.8406168766829473, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0.13209693776446316, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservatives", + "probability": 0.01813095224218122, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liberal Democrats", + "probability": 0.009155233310408337, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2 + }, { "title": "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)", "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.csv b/data/metaculus-questions.csv index 7fb45b9..1deed9a 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.csv +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.csv @@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ By ""unified"" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for exa However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? Resolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -",211,3 +",213,3 "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -79,8 +79,24 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). -",27,3 -"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. +",28,3 +"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. +Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. +Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012. +On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal. +Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? +This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen. +In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open. +Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. +Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. +",56,3 +"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: +""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?"" +The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. +The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. +The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023. +",181,3 +"Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years. There is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however: ---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. ---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held ""within one year before the places are to become vacant."" @@ -89,18 +105,7 @@ The combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Pa Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021? This question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement. Note that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. -",94,3 -"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4836/will-chinas-tianwen-1-rover-successfully-land-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks: -""Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?"" -The question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. -The question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened. -The question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023. -",176,3 -"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) -In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) -Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? -Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary -",544,3 +",100,3 "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/","Metaculus","[]","Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) In late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. @@ -113,21 +118,6 @@ If the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the q If the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. ",40,3 -"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/","Metaculus","[]","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? -This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question. -",70,3 -"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). -Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). -This question asks: -Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? -This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states: ----That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. -And: ----That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. -The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: -There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. -The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. -",141,3 "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As a part of the Future Perfect 2021 series, this question is inspired by one of the predictions in [this article](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The state of the American economy and rising income inequality have been hot topics of recent political discourse even before the COVID-19 pandemic. While politicians continue to debate the best way to respond to the pandemic, the aid package passed in early 2020 appears to have had significant impact. By some measures the poverty rate fell despite lock-downs and a rise in unemployment. These measures eventually expired and the proportion of Americans in poverty rose as 2020 entered its final months. ---[US poverty fell in April and May due to federal relief programs, even as COVID-19 ravaged the economy, new study suggests](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-poverty-april-stimulus-may-federal-relief-programs-coronavirus-study-2020-6) @@ -150,6 +140,21 @@ This question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the pe The value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the ""Observed Number"" column and substracting the values in the ""Average Expected Count"" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021. If this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. ",79,3 +"Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). +Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). +This question asks: +Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic? +This question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states: +---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. +And: +---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. +The NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say: +There have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this. +The end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. +",141,3 +"Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively. +This question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does. +",287,3 "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919), I don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis. You would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court. @@ -177,15 +182,10 @@ This question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Cong This question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022. This question resolves negatively otherwise. ",230,3 -"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). -On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). -When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? -This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -",130,3 "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia) The S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends? This question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030. -",123,3 +",124,3 "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3084/what-is-the-probability-that-gore-will-defeat-bush-in-the-2000-us-presidential-election/","Metaculus","[]","Bear with me, this is a thought experiment. Imagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards. What is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)? @@ -202,35 +202,17 @@ As new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery Will will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021? Resolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). ",100,3 -"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. -The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. -Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? -This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). -",42,3 "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). According [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016. How much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023? Resolution This question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. ",150,3 -"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/","Metaculus","[]","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. -According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: -According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. -Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel. -When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed -Resolution -This question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). -This question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040. -The type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. -The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say: ----It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia ----The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island -",73,3 "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.” Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident). Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021? This question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources. -",49,3 +",50,3 "What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3708/what-will-the-lower-limit-in-the-ipccs-likely-range-of-its-climate-sensitivity-estimate-be-in-its-6th-assessment-report/","Metaculus","[]","Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/). The first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). [Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the ""likely"" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy. @@ -258,27 +240,25 @@ I still don’t know what consciousness is. Nor do my colleagues in [philosophy] Fear not, we aren’t going to get lost in philosophical ruminations. We are going to predate upon [a bet made in 1998 between neuroscientist Christof Koch and philosopher David Chalmers](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf). One night after a conference Koch bet Chalmers “a case of fine wine that within the next 25 years someone would discover a specific signature of consciousness in the brain.” ([pg. 26](http://consc.net/misc/consciousnesswager.pdf)). The idea is that Koch and his team will find a neural correlate of consciousness (NCC) “a minimal physical signature in the brain sufficient for a specific subjective experience” (ibid). That is, Koch’s team hopes to discover a small set of neurons with intrinsic properties. “Intrinsic properties could be, say, a neuron’s pattern of electrical firing, or genes regulating the production of various neurotransmitters.“ (ibid). According to the conditions of the bet, Koch has until June 20, 2023 to do so. Resolution: The resolution is going to piggyback upon the bet between Chalmers and Koch. The question resolves as affirmative if Chalmers pays Koch, negative if Koch pays Chalmers, and ambiguous if neither concedes by end of 2023. ",95,3 -"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus","[]","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. -Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? -The question will resolve: -1--Rishi Sunak -2--Michael Gove -3--Jeremy Hunt -4--Priti Patel -5--None of the above -The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. -If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -",160,3 +"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","[]","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. +What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? +This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. +",239,3 "When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5681/when-will-us-ev-sales-overtake-ice-sales/","Metaculus","[]","US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. Total vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/). Reports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world. When will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year? Resolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously. ",37,3 -"What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/","Metaculus","[]","Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500. -What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500? -This will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value. -",237,3 +"Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life +longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. +Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years. +(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.) +A ""therapy"" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds. +Longevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively. +If no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. +The date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy. +",89,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. [WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL). @@ -286,15 +266,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on This question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",51,3 -"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. -International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. -Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/). -Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. -What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? -For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. -(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.) -",366,3 +",53,3 "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/","Metaculus","[]","In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the ""Three Nos"": ""no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it..."" Since then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel. This brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four. @@ -307,6 +279,19 @@ If the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves amb The Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option. Should Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. ",83,3 +"When will the world create the first Trillionaire?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in. +International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations. +Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/). +Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory. +What do you think? When will we cross the threshold? +For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. +(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.) +",366,3 +"Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) +In a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/) +Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election? +Credible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary +",548,3 "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that ""basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society"". In 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3. In 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world. @@ -343,18 +328,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview). ",25,3 -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",39,3 -"Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. -Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as -a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists. -thus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too. -Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? ----If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. ----If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. -",31,3 "What percentage of predictions about ""robotic judges"" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/","Metaculus","[]","[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: ---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be ""commonplace"" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. ---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty ""with 99.9 per cent accuracy"" @@ -380,6 +353,14 @@ Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022? This question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source. If the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. ",104,3 +"Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites. +Youtube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as +a hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists. +thus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too. +Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023? +---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. +---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. +",31,3 "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/","Metaculus","[]","[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): Spotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists. Spotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers. @@ -390,11 +371,6 @@ There is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/ If that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution. If that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously. ",41,3 -"Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer: -Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. -Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? -This resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise. -",22,3 "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/","Metaculus","[]","related questions on Metaculus: ---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) As of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986. @@ -414,12 +390,6 @@ One notable feature of this list of dates is that the last two impeachments were Will the US House of Representatives vote to impeach the next president of the United States? The 'next president of the United States' is the president to take office after Donald Trump leaves office. This question will resolve positively upon an impeachment, and will close retroactively one month prior to a vote. It will resolve negatively when the next president of the United States leaves office without being impeached. It will resolve ambiguously if there is no next president of the United States. ",225,3 -"Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU. -As part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland ""shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland"" -More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks: -Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? -This question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01. -",15,3 "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/","Metaculus","[]","Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), By popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve. To repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...] @@ -427,13 +397,12 @@ Will I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet? This question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet. ",48,3 -"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. -Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? ---- -Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021. ---- -The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. -",21,3 +"Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The island of Ireland has been partitioned into two countries since the 1920s. It is made up of [Northern Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland), one of the countries which makes up the United Kingdom and the [Republic of Ireland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Ireland) which is a sovereign state and member of the EU. +As part of the [Good Friday Agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement) and the [Northern Ireland Act 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Ireland_Act_1998) provides that the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland ""shall exercise the power to hold a referendum if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland"" +More details can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland). This question asks: +Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030? +This question resolves positive if the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland holds a referendum on the question of reunification before 12PM GMT 2030-01-01. +",15,3 "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since [abortion law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Poland) was restricted in 1993, the rate of legal abortions in Poland has been miniscule compared to other European Countries. The number of legal abortions performed per year stayed below the maximum of 1,110 in 2019 [[1]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111313/poland-number-of-legal-abortions-1994-2018/). The rate of legally conducted abortions is 30-100 times lower then in other European countries [[2]](https://www.statista.com/statistics/866423/abortion-rate-europe/). Pro-choice organizations argue that there is a much greater number of abortions that are performed illegally or by travel to more liberal jurisdictions. The legal status of abortion, often referred to informally as ""[abortion compromise](https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/ustawa-antyaborcyjna-z-1993-r-historia-i-proby-zmiany-przepisow/81tw9nz)"", was stable since 1997 when Constitutional Tribunal struck down a recently introduced provision that allowed for abortion due to ""hard living conditions or difficult personal situations"". Since then, abortion has been legal under three conditions: @@ -449,17 +418,16 @@ If any state agency of Poland will officially publish that number of abortions c Otherwise, if there are fewer than 11,100 legal abortions or abortion is illegal in all cases by 2030, the question will resolve negative. Otherwise, if no such report that provides number of legal abortions is public, the question will resolve ambiguous. ",80,3 -"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: -The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. ---[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) -CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. -The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. -As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. -Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? -This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. -The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. -In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. -",175,3 +"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus","[]","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) +Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. +[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014). +But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition. +[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of) +When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected? +This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote. +So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected. +If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. +",40,3 "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast. Many different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders. The [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois. @@ -472,10 +440,24 @@ This cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organizati --- At some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more. ",91,3 -"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. -Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? -This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. -",287,3 +"On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/","Metaculus","[]","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question. +As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021. +On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k? +[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics) +Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.). +If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source. +",248,3 +"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). +[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. +As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? +This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +",65,3 +"When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/","Metaculus","[]","The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered? +This question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question. +",70,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6183/sota-imagenet-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. ImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. @@ -503,15 +485,60 @@ Resolution Criteria Predictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading. Resolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance. ",19,3 -"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/","Metaculus","[]","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. -This question asks: -What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/). -Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea. -It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc. -Resolution criteria: -With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. -The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. -",80,3 +"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump. +A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague. +In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): +Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent) +With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right. +Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask: +Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? +This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are: +--- +Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445) +--- +Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621) +--- +Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers) +(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021) +--- +Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722) +--- +Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721) +--- +Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) +--- +Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447) +",38,3 +"Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. +The use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure. +Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024? +This will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). +",42,3 +"When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2). +On 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [""as early as April""](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [""talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.""](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant). +When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? +This question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. +",132,3 +"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. +Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. +This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? +By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. +By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. +This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. +",127,3 +"When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/","Metaculus","[]","A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. +According to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing: +According to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada. +Several American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel. +When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed +Resolution +This question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). +This question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040. +The type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. +The exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say: +---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia +---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island +",73,3 "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -542,52 +569,23 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",25,3 -"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), -In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] -A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] -The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. -The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4. -This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)? -If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. -For convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format: -Date,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 -",70,3 -"When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. -Of 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years. -This question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country? -By 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually. -By 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count. -This question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization. -",127,3 -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",43,3 +",26,3 "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (""Special Vehicles"") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA). The land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called ""passes""). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated. The current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. This question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025? Resolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated. ",147,3 -"Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Background -========== - -[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. -With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. -According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. -Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation? - -Resolution -========== - -This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. -Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples. -",13,3 -"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. -How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01? -Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). -",50,3 +"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. +What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? +This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). +",74,3 +"Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer: +Matt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers. +Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023? +This resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise. +",22,3 "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia. In March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement. In Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): @@ -596,20 +594,6 @@ The Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www. Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01? This question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership). ",15,3 -"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","[]","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). -Data sources: ----[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) ----[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) ----[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) -What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? -This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. -In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. -",57,3 -"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. -However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: -When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? -Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. -",335,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. @@ -618,7 +602,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",70,3 +",72,3 "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). @@ -645,16 +629,13 @@ The last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released? The question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released. ",70,3 -"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","[]","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? -I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. -I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). -See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920). -So what do you think? -When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""? -This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. -Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). -If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". -",237,3 +"Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [""the enemy"" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists. +Will any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot? +--- +Applies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021. +--- +The offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. +",21,3 "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too. If Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen? 435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership. @@ -663,11 +644,10 @@ Resolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolve .* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it. .^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. ",172,3 -"What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%. -What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be? -This question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). -",69,3 +"Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland. +Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively. +",292,3 "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States. Scott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog, This is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria. @@ -693,29 +673,83 @@ This question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at It resolves negative if he is not president at that time. Cases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date. In Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. -",86,3 -"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","[]","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): -4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. -4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. -The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. -[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context. -When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? -This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. -If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. -",384,3 +",87,3 +"What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/","Metaculus","[]","This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea. +This question asks: +What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/). +Predictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea. +It is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc. +Resolution criteria: +With probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date. +The details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution. +",80,3 +"What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), +In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] +A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] +The Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality. +The World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4. +This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)? +If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. +For convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format: +Date,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 +",70,3 +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +",45,3 +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +",52,3 +"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. +Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. +In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. +",214,3 +"What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/","Metaculus","[]","This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). +Data sources: +---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) +---[Vaccine Distribution ""Process""](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) +---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) +What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30? +This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses."" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET. +In the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled ""Number of people receiving 1 or more doses"", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. +",62,3 +"In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/","Metaculus","[]","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. +[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. +The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html). +In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? +This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). +If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022. +",58,3 +"When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, ""I Want My Hat Back""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/","Metaculus","[]","The ending of the children's book ""[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)"" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI? +I call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test. +I am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). +See the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920). +So what do you think? +When will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book ""I Want My Hat Back"" and accurately answer the question: ""What happened to the rabbit""? +This resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book ""I Want My Hat Back"" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question ""What Happened to the rabbit?"" within no more than five tries. +Correct responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (""The bear ate it"", ""It was eaten by the bear"", or some equivalent). +If no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as "">2041-01-01"". +",237,3 +"Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/). +According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. +Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))? +This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period. +If for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability. +If the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive. +",48,3 +"When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/","Metaculus","[]","The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020. +However, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So: +When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19? +Resolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports. +",337,3 "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. In additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology. Private efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts? Well ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? To separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more. ",294,3 -"On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/","Metaculus","[]","According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question. -As of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021. -On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k? -[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics) -Resolves to the earliest date on which ""Currently Hospitalized"" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.). -If the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source. -",236,3 "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/","Metaculus","[]","There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. North Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019. [On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976. @@ -727,6 +761,15 @@ This question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corp This question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019. The restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.) ",109,3 +"Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading), +Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading. +Proponents say seasteads can ""provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship."" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations. +No one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands. +As an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous ""seazone"" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018. +The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials. +Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035? +This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria. +",30,3 "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/): A teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday. He was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1). @@ -736,25 +779,16 @@ Will Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide? ---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. ETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively ",510,3 -"Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Nineteen out of the 48 Vice Presidents of the United States have gone on to run for President. Since World War 2, Joe Biden, Al Gore, Walter Mondale, Gerald Ford, Richard Nixon, Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman have all been VPs who have either gone on to become President or presidential candidates. -Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves as yes upon widespread media reports of former Vice President Michael R. Pence declaring his candidacy for the 2024 election. Closing date of 11/15/23 is the filing deadline for the New Hampshire primary. -In the event of any ambiguity, go with whether he (or agents acting on his behalf and with his consent) has filed ""FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy"" with the Federal Election Commission for the 2024 United States Presidential election. -",214,3 -"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). -[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. -What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023? -This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). -GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. -",62,3 -"In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/","Metaculus","[]","Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. -[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. -The U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html). -In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced? -This question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). -If the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022. -",55,3 +"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/). +The proposition in question will be taken as: +The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. +That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [""self-resolving"" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: +--- +If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.) +--- +Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. +(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.) +",2663,3 "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. Will Roe vs. Wade be reversed? We specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy? @@ -768,33 +802,26 @@ AND 2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). *In case the term ""convicted"" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology. ",385,3 -"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). -[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. -What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? -This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). -GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. +"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. +What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States? +This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. +Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. +",219,3 +"How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/","Metaculus","[]","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars). +How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt? +The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. +The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). ",52,3 -"Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Fragile State Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fragile_States_Index) is an important metric of government stability. It is published every year [here](https://fragilestatesindex.org/). -According to the [2019 report](https://fragilestatesindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/9511904-fragilestatesindex.pdf) (see page 11), over the 2009 to 2019 period, The US was #12 among the countries with the most rapidly deteriorating Fragile States Index. The US was still among the more stable nations in the world but the trend was clearly in the direction of less stability. -Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the [Fragile States Index](http://(https://fragilestatesindex.org))? -This question resolves positively if the United States is amongst the 20 countries with the largest long-term increase (worsening) of fragile state score over the 2019-2029 period. -If for some reason, [Fund for Peace](https://fragilestatesindex.org) ceases to publish this index, or their index can no longer be compared historically this question will be ambiguous, unless the [Fund For Peace](https://fundforpeace.org/) designates a successor index that also shows which 20 countries have deteriorated the most over the period 2019 to 2029 from a standpoint of stability. -If the United States ceases to exist as a unified nation this question resolves positive. -",48,3 +"Will China land the next person on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. +Will China land the next person on the Moon? +This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. +This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report. +For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country. +",73,3 "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/","Metaculus","[]","In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall? How will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents? This question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score. ",103,3 -"Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6721/successful-seasteading-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasteading), -Seasteading is the concept of creating permanent dwellings at sea, called seasteads, outside the territory claimed by any government. The term is a blend of sea and homesteading. -Proponents say seasteads can ""provide the means for rapid innovation in voluntary governance and reverse environmental damage to our oceans ... and foster entrepreneurship."" Some critics fear seasteads are designed more as a refuge for the wealthy to avoid taxes or other obligations. -No one has yet created a structure on the high seas that has been recognized as a sovereign state. Proposed structures have included modified cruise ships, refitted oil platforms, and custom-built floating islands. -As an intermediate step, the Seasteading Institute has promoted cooperation with an existing nation on prototype floating islands with legal semi-autonomy within the nation's protected territorial waters. On January 13, 2017, the Seasteading Institute signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with French Polynesia to create the first semi-autonomous ""seazone"" for a prototype, but later that year political changes driven by the French Polynesia presidential election led to the indefinite postponement of the project. French Polynesia formally backed out of the project and permanently cut ties with Seasteading on March 14, 2018. -The first single-family seastead was launched near Phuket, Thailand by Ocean Builders. Two months later, the Thai Navy claimed the seastead was a threat to Thai sovereignty. As of 2019, Ocean Builders says it will be building again in Panama, with the support of government officials. -Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035? -This question resolves positively if, before 2035, a seastead is launched and continuously operates for over one year, with at least 100 participants who live on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. Determination will be made based on credible media, and the best guess of the admins as to whether the seasteading operation had at least 100 participants who lived on the seastead for most of the period of its operation. If necessary, Metaculites can consult members of a proposed seasteading operation to determine whether it matches the resolution criteria. -",30,3 "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. @@ -803,42 +830,6 @@ This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of th GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. ",133,3 -"Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/). -The proposition in question will be taken as: -The the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province. -That's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [""self-resolving"" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows: ---- -If at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.) ---- -Otherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution. -(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.) -",2634,3 -"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). -When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? -This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. -If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. -",143,3 -"Will China land the next person on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024. -Will China land the next person on the Moon? -This question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise. -This question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report. -For a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country. -",72,3 -"How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/","Metaculus","[]","The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will ""attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window"". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars). -How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt? -The question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds. -The preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf). -",39,3 -"What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/","Metaculus","[]","Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average. -What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States? -This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. -Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. -",219,3 -"What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","[]","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? -The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031. -""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: -Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available. -",105,3 "When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/","Metaculus","[]","After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket. SpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.). When will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit? @@ -852,16 +843,11 @@ To be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least on (Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.) (Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.) ",156,3 -"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. -O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). -For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): -General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) -The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6. -How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030? -This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation* -For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). -If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT. -",60,3 +"When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)). +When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? +This question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively. +If this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as ""> Oct 6, 2030"". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved. +",143,3 "Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6709/enough-vaccine-for-all-us-adults-by-31-may/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is [""on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) There are approximately [255 million adults](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/22/pfizer-says-its-covid-vaccine-trial-for-kids-ages-12-to-15-is-fully-enrolled.html) in the U.S. President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA [authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) and [Merck announced on 2 March](https://www.merck.com/news/merck-to-help-produce-johnson-barda-to-provide-merck-with-funding-to-expand-mercks-manufacturing-capacity-for-covid-19-vaccines-and-medicines/) that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the [third vaccine](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#vaccines) to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S. Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021? @@ -874,11 +860,17 @@ So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,6 Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals. If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting. ",70,3 -"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) -There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. -BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? -After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value. -",62,3 +"What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","[]","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? +The global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031. +""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: +Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available. +",105,3 +"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. +Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia). +In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: +Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? +This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. +",165,3 "Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regulation banning all types of caged-housing for egg-laying hens before the end of its term on 31st October 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5431/will-the-eu-announce-by-2024-going-cage-free/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question has been posed by [Rethink Priorities](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/), a non-profit research organisation, as part of their work on European Union animal welfare policies. European Union (EU) legislation currently allows the use of ""enriched"" cages for egg-laying hens as well as alternative cage-free systems through [Directive 1999/74/EC](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/1999/74/oj). EU statistics indicate that [50.5%](https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/food-farming-fisheries/farming/documents/eggs-dashboard_en.pdf) of egg-laying hens in the EU are cage-free. In July 2020, the European Commission [tasked](https://www.ciwf.eu/news/2020/07/eu-agency-to-look-at-welfare-of-animals-in-caged-systems?utm_campaign%3DECI%26utm_source%3Dtwitter%26utm_medium%3Dciwf) the European Food and Safety Authority (EFSA) with investigating the welfare of cages for laying hens to provide a sound scientific basis by December 2022 for 'future legislative decisions'. The EFSA website specifically [mentions](http://www.efsa.europa.eu/en/topics/topic/animal-welfare?utm_medium%3Dsocial%26utm_source%3Defsa%26utm_campaign%3Danimalwelfare2%26utm_content%3Dcorporate) the ""[End the Cage Age](https://www.endthecageage.eu/)"" [European Citizens’ Initiative](https://europa.eu/citizens-initiative/home_en) signed by over 1 million European Union citizens calling for a ban on using confined housing in livestock farming, which includes the caging of laying hens, in the whole EU. In September 2020, the Commission put out a call for 24 month tenders for the pilot project ""[Best Practices for Alternative Egg Production](https://etendering.ted.europa.eu/cft/cft-display.html?cftId=7175)"". In August 2020, in response to parliamentary questions, EU Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides [reiterated](https://www.topagrar.com/management-und-politik/news/tierwohl-ist-wesentlicher-bestandteil-der-farm-to-fork-strategie-12332974.html?utm_source%3Dtopagrar) that the EU Commission would present a working paper on the implementation of animal welfare in the European Union in early 2022 and will present appropriate legislative proposals by the end of 2023. @@ -896,11 +888,11 @@ Will the current European Commission propose a European Union directive or regul This question will be resolved when the European Commission is reported on the [EU Press Corner website](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/home/en) to have made a proposal for a directive or regulation that requires an end to the use of all caged systems for egg-laying hens within the European Union. Note that predictions are for if the announcement will be made, not for what date cages will be effectively banned nor for when or if the Commission proposal will be adopted into law successfully after being proposed. If the Commission proposal is made on or before 31 October 2024 the question will be resolved positively. If the Commission has not proposed a cage-free law by the end of the current term (31 October 2024), this will resolve negatively. In the case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 48 hours before the time of the EU commission announcement. ",89,3 -"By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972. -[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. -This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? -This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question. -",254,3 +"BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS) +There is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies. +BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026? +After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value. +",66,3 "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6700/greater-global-carbon-emissions-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100. The most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C. Initial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (""land-use changes"" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation). @@ -908,13 +900,21 @@ Kelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877 Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? This question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change). If there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. -",36,3 -"Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.08999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election. -Australia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia). -In late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: -Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021? -This question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise. -",164,3 +",37,3 +"By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972. +[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. +This question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030? +This question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question. +",254,3 +"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). +In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. +As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. +What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. +In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +",77,3 "When will an AI pass the laugh test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/","Metaculus","[]","In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet: ...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh. For the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.) @@ -927,14 +927,6 @@ The training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in questi --- It is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous. ",105,3 -"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). -The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). -In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. -When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? -This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. -By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. -To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" -",133,3 "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Jeff McAulay and Stephen Zoepf summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/712/). Jeff McAulay argued, Every major car company already has autonomous driving technology under development. Licenses for driverless cars have already been issued. Google autonomous vehicles have already demonstrated hundreds of thousands of miles of driving without any major accidents. @@ -943,22 +935,6 @@ I agree that autonomous vehicle technology has progressed at an astounding rate. Will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? If Jeff McAulay is declared the winner of the bet by the Long Now Foundation, then this question resolves positively. If Stephen Zoepf is declared the winner, then this question resolves negatively. ",89,3 -"What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). -In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. -As of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. -What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify. -In case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted. -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",74,3 -"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. -In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? -This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. -",82,3 "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/","Metaculus","[]","SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km. When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit? This question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve @@ -967,7 +943,14 @@ A Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based ---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) ---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. -",90,3 +",91,3 +"What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6256/median-wage-for-computer-scientists-2029/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills. +In the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +What will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD? +This question resolves as the median wage for ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +Prices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. +",82,3 "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/","Metaculus","[]","Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions. Furthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption. Finally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020. @@ -983,13 +966,13 @@ Resolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffai If it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria). Edit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. ",85,3 -"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: +"Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: ---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) President-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a ""transition figure"" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [""absolutely""](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [""absolutely""](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again. Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024? This question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC. The number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. -",19,3 +",21,3 "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/","Metaculus","[]","[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's ""sister planet"" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects. It has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun. Due to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions. @@ -999,17 +982,12 @@ As of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are acti When will the first human mission to Venus take place? This question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres. The humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. -",19,3 +",24,3 "Will there be another case of smallpox by the end of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2823/will-there-be-another-case-of-smallpox-by-the-end-of-2029/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The last two cases of smallpox in the world happened [in 1978](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_smallpox_outbreak_in_the_United_Kingdom), following the accidental exposure of Janet Parker to smallpox grown in a research laboratory below her workplace. After this, smallpox was declared eradicated, and there have been no cases since. However, the smallpox virus still exists; the US and Russia [maintain stocks of smallpox virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_virus_retention_debate) for research purposes in the World Health Organization approved facilities at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, United States, as well as the State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Russia. These samples may not be needed, either; in 2017, Noyce et al. showed that it was possible to [contruct an infectious horsepox virus from chemically synthesised DNA fragments](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5774680/) in a small lab at a cost of about $100,000, and it may be possible to do the same for smallpox. By the end of 2029, will there have been a confirmed case of infection of a human by smallpox? ",146,3 -"When will the mammoth be revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/","Metaculus","[]","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. -When will the mammoth be revived? -This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. -The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. -",49,3 "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: ---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/) @@ -1018,14 +996,12 @@ In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to c Before Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung? All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation. For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs. -",14,3 -"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/","Metaculus","[]","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. -When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? -This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: -Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. -Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. -[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. -",73,3 +",15,3 +"When will the mammoth be revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/","Metaculus","[]","In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago. +When will the mammoth be revived? +This question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday. +The mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively. +",49,3 "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6249/november-2021-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? @@ -1034,45 +1010,18 @@ The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant es The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. In case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. ",118,3 -"Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related questions on Metaculus: ----[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) -Beginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html). -In Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) -The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent) -[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists. -Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? -This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. -As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. -",14,3 +"When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/","Metaculus","[]","The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. +When will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%? +This question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that: +Moreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior. +Each year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD. +[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used. +",73,3 "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/","Metaculus","[]","In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (""[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)""), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. The 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys). When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available? This resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as "">"". ",138,3 -"Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump. -A question has been on all of our minds: ""when will things go back to normal?"" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but ""back to normal"" is very vague. -In Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021): -Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent) -With the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right. -Kelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what ""back to normal by end of year"" means, so we ask: -Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021? -This question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as ""typical"") at any point in 2021. These statistics are: ---- -Spending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445) ---- -Spending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621) ---- -Total Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers) -(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021) ---- -Spending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722) ---- -Spending on Accommodation (NAICS 721) ---- -Spending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448) ---- -Spending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447) -",33,3 "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/","Metaculus","[]","See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user. Germany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs. French Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs. @@ -1086,6 +1035,11 @@ This resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at lea Estimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously. ",15,3 +"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. +(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.) +When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store? +The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord. +",42,3 "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of February 2021, the [island of Great Britain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Britain) is part of the [UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom), which is a constitutional monarchy. Although the monarch once held power, over time this has diminished so that their role of head of state is ['broadly ceremonial'](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/role/relations-with-other-institutions/parliament-crown/). The [English Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Civil_War) resulted in the trial and execution of the king in 1649, and the declaration of [a republic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_England), which lasted until the English monarchy was [restored](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Restoration) in 1660. Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in 2019 ([graph](https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/636/90/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20190427_IRC763.png)). @@ -1093,11 +1047,24 @@ Globally, the number of monarchies has decreased from over 150 in 1900 to 44 in Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075? This question resolves positively if, on 2075-01-01, at least 1% of the population of Great Britain (the mainland island only) live in a state with a monarch as head of state. ",28,3 -"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? -Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? -The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. -An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) -",1096,3 +"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), +Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. +From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/), +The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation. +In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin. +“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.” +The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. +From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety), +a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997. +You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf). +Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? +This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media: +--- +The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective). +--- +Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal. +Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. +",36,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8. @@ -1105,7 +1072,12 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",66,3 +",68,3 +"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. +When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? +This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. +'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others. +",105,3 "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Modern Monetary Theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_Monetary_Theory) is currently a heterodox economics theory. MMT is debated with active dialogues about its theoretical integrity, the implications of the policy recommendations of its proponents, and the extent to which it is actually divergent from orthodox macroeconomics. Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01? @@ -1114,11 +1086,6 @@ A. To a person who, at any point, identifies as a founder, developer, or core co B. The justification for the prize by the committee attributes the award to that person's contribution to MMT, Macroeconomics, or a core macroeconomics principle/idea (deficit, inflation, interest rates, government bonds, reserves) This question resolves 'No' if no Nobel Prize is awarded before 2041-01-01 with that satisfies both conditions simultaneously. If it is the case that there is disagreement on whether the award is ""for"" contributions to MMT, the final ruling will be made by a Metaculus staff member (with a background in Economics if this is possible), who has not predicted on the question. ",34,3 -"When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people. -When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England? -This question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn. -'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others. -",105,3 "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Like every country, China has peculiarities in how it is run. One of these is how the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China is the leader of the country instead of the president, prime minister, chancellor, or any other such position (though traditionally the general secretary also assumes the mostly ceremonial position of president as well). The current iteration of the post came in 1982, when [Hu Yaobang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hu_Yaobang) took the post, initiating reforms. He was dethroned in 1987 for not ceding to the demands of Deng Xiaoping (the then still de facto ruler of China) to deal with the leaders of student protests for more liberties. The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were preceded by Hu’s death and the wish of students to honour him. Hu was succeeded by [Zhao Ziyang](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhao_Ziyang), who took up and continued many of Hu’s reforms. He resigned when Deng Xiaoping ordered troops to deal with the Tiananmen Square protests. @@ -1145,26 +1112,33 @@ According to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. -",147,3 -"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context +",148,3 +"How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== -Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. -This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? +The US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. +The [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that: +“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.” +Oldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. +“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. ""I think this is going to be a trend,"" he says.” +How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? Resolution Criteria +=================== -This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. -",1306,3 -"When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under ""Social Networking"" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. -(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.) -When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store? -The ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord. -",42,3 +Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. +",27,3 "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as ""basically a modified Argus II,"" it is likely to be approved within a few years. How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030? The question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people. The logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. ",49,3 +"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. +According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. +In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. +This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? +In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. +",298,3 "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/","Metaculus","[]","In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers. However, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions: ---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). @@ -1195,23 +1169,16 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",25,3 +",28,3 "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications. Each year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020. How many emoji related court cases in 2021? Resolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous. ",36,3 -"How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition. -According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach ""biblical proportions"". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen. -In October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [""the worst famine in the world in 100 years.""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation. -This question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF? -In case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures. -",298,3 -"What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810. -A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv). -What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? -This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. -",76,3 +"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. +Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? +This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +",89,3 "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -1224,7 +1191,14 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== This data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions. -",26,3 +",33,3 +"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. +This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). +The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. +Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. +What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? +Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. +",37,3 "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/","Metaculus","[]","The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587). While there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1). When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video? @@ -1233,32 +1207,15 @@ The error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicte Example: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. The scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less. The question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. -",31,3 -"Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-), -Although heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty. -From [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/), -The Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation. -In a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin. -“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.” -The novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. -From Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety), -a 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997. -You can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf). -Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? -This question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media: ---- -The FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective). ---- -Any federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal. -Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. -",36,3 -"What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year. -This is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI). -The figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate. -Answers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars. -What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI? -Resolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",37,3 +",34,3 +"When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/","Metaculus","[]","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings. +One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) +For a precise question we'll ask: +When will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? +There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/). +When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? +Resolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.) +",56,3 "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease. This question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. This question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021). @@ -1270,7 +1227,7 @@ How many new cases of COVID-19 in: ---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) ---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) Similar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/) -",967,3 +",983,3 "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars), The possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms. Life on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa. @@ -1278,21 +1235,6 @@ If life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surfa Will we find life on Mars by 2050? This question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively. ",65,3 -"How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background -========== - -The US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. -The [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that: -“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.” -Oldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. -“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. ""I think this is going to be a trend,"" he says.” -How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. -",27,3 "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/","Metaculus","[]","Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract, According to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them. Scott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. @@ -1350,10 +1292,15 @@ If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. *As judged by a metaculus admin. ",66,3 -"Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. -Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025? -This question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -",89,3 +"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted. +The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. +This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: +---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. +---There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies. +---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s. +The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. +The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar. +",82,3 "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. Herd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. However, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold. @@ -1372,14 +1319,13 @@ The company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headqu Plant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors). In case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI. ",75,3 -"When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/","Metaculus","[]","Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings. -One task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.) -For a precise question we'll ask: -When will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime? -There's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/). -When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key? -Resolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.) -",56,3 +"When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. +The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. +Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B. +When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? +This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. +As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded. +",27,3 "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/). Joseph F. Huttner argued, 1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...] @@ -1396,6 +1342,10 @@ If the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022? This question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022. ",58,3 +"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). +Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? +Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. +",172,3 "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people. The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: @@ -1404,14 +1354,19 @@ When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. ",321,3 -"Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There has been speculation that Biden, due to his age, might be a one-term President and therefore Harris, as his VP, could be the favorite to succeed him; for example [here](https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/13/latest_news/1605297592_528198.html) and [here](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/11/biden-cabinet-kamala-2024-444482). However, Biden's campaign has maintained that [he is considering running in 2024](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/transition-playbook/2021/01/20/biden-is-planning-to-run-again-in-2024-792879). -Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? -Resolves positively if Kamala Harris, by January 1, 2024, announces that she is running for President. -",172,3 "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/","Metaculus","[]","As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100). When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands? This question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). -",32,3 +",37,3 +"By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. +Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. +By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? +Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15. +If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. +",149,3 +"Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This will be ""True"" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word ""hydrino"", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word ""hydrino"". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals. +The conjunction of Randell Mills with the word ""hydrino"" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame. +",165,3 "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","previous Metaculus questions: ---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) The [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents. @@ -1423,31 +1378,16 @@ As INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear inciden Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030? This question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council. ",135,3 -"Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, ""In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response."" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct ""yes"" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct ""no"" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct ""yes"" or direct ""no"" are not counted. -The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question. -This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen: ----The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. ----There are an equal number of direct ""Yes""s or ""No""s in the replies. ----A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the ""Yes""s and ""No""s. -The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories ""Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics"" and ""General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology."" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group. -The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar. -",82,3 -"Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This will be ""True"" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word ""hydrino"", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word ""hydrino"". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals. -The conjunction of Randell Mills with the word ""hydrino"" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame. -",165,3 -"By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. -Of the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman. -By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? -Resolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15. -If there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. -",149,3 -"When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. -The list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. -Only 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B. -When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company? -This question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share. -As a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded. -",27,3 +"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. +On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. +The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. +Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? +This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. +Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). +---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. +---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. +---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. +",63,3 "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6591/us-to-implement-tabarrok-vaccine-ideas/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On Feb 12, Alex Tabarrok [wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/02/12/first-doses-vaccine-rules-fda/) advocating for several policies that would speed up vaccinations. A “first doses first” approach — that is, prioritizing first doses by delaying the second shot from three to four weeks (the period studied in clinical trials) to 12 weeks — would allow more people to get vaccinated quickly, for example. “Fractional” dosing, such as by giving half-doses, would instantly increase the vaccine supply and has been used successfully in previous epidemics. @@ -1470,16 +1410,15 @@ Starlink as been [speaking openly about an IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovati Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030? This will be judged according to reports in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, New York Times or Washington Post posted to the discussion below. If Starlink does not go public by 2030-01-01 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively. ",37,3 -"Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. -On [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10. -The most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015. -Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022? -This question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022. -Because there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is). ----The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. ----If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. ----This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. -",63,3 +"Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/","Metaculus","[]","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. +The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) +The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. +In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . +It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space. +Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered. +Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe. +The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. +",255,3 "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5407/starlink-largest-ipo-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related question on Metaculus: ---[Will Starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/) Elon Musk has been speaking openly about a possible [Starlink IPO](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/when-will-spacex-starlink-ipo). The [largest IPO's](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_public_offering#Largest_IPOs) as of 2020 include Saudi Aramco, which raised $30 Billion. @@ -1526,33 +1465,24 @@ Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020? This question resolves positively, if by the end of 2021, no credible reports have emerged that a baby was born in the year 2020 whose embryo was genetically edited by way of a CRISPR system, such as [CAS9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cas9). Reports need to be corroborated and substantiated so as to leave little room for doubt, e.g. by being corroborated by statements of research organisations, independent researchers, grant-makers or government science department or agencies. In case positive resolution is triggered, this question retroactively closes two days prior to the day resolution is triggered, but resolves on January 1st, 2021. ",403,3 -"When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/","Metaculus","[]","For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console. -This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption. -Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. -*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels. -",69,3 "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr. The $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress). If Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour? The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports. If Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous. If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. -",299,3 -"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +",300,3 +"When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/","Metaculus","[]","For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console. +This question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption. +Patents, announcements, and review units do not count. +*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels. +",69,3 +"Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025? Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025. -",1131,3 -"Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/","Metaculus","[]","This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox. -The first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337) -The model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters. -In this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . -It is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space. -Anything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered. -Given our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe. -The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. -",255,3 +",1139,3 "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/","Metaculus","[]","For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve? ""Annual return"" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is: Return should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index. @@ -1573,20 +1503,13 @@ This question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Ti If the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada. Admission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary. ",33,3 -"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. -What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? -The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. -You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] -",55,3 -"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? -Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? -This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. -If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/). -Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). -This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. -",439,3 +"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. +The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. +The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) +Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? +This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. +It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. +",33,3 "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). The Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf): The number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads. @@ -1598,18 +1521,22 @@ Data According to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014: 2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720. ",133,3 -"Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Scotland is one of the UK’s four constituent nations - and its politics are currently dominated by the [Scottish National Party](https://whatscotlandthinks.org/), a party whose core aim is to remove Scotland from the UK and become an independent country. -The SNP government in Edinburgh previously successfully negotiated with the UK-wide government for the right to hold a referendum, [which took place in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum). The “No” side (“Better Together”) won 55% to 45%. The SNP has, however, won every Scottish national election since that date. -The SNP wish to have a fresh vote - stating that Brexit has changed the terms of the argument. The UK government has, to date, refused to countenance permitting such a vote. Under the Scotland Act, the Edinburgh government does not have the power to hold one [without permission.](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1998/46/section/30) -Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024? -This will be deemed resolved if there is a referendum held where the UK government has approved the holding of the vote on or prior to May 2 2024. This is the date on which the UK parliamentary term is currently scheduled to end. -It shall not be deemed resolved by a “wildcat” or “Catalan” style of referendum where the UK government has declined permission for the vote, nor by a vote organised by civil society institutions. A referendum must be deemed to have the consent of the London government. -",33,3 "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area. To give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago. This question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? For a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy. ",233,3 +"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus","[]","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. +Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. +This question asks: +How big will the first crew sent to Mars be? +The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. +Related questions: +---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) +---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) +---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) +---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) +",91,3 "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/","Metaculus","[]","The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance. When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university? To qualify as a ""top"", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught. @@ -1619,6 +1546,36 @@ If the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroac This question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. Edit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. ",101,3 +"How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== + +According to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. +If labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. +Since the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster. +How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US. +",18,3 +"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. +This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. +Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. +[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. +This question asks: +On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2? +This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. +If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. +If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +*As judged by a metaculus admin. +",59,3 +"How much global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","[]","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. +[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. +Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880? +Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. +",479,3 "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -1645,57 +1602,28 @@ Resolution This question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/). ",48,3 -"How much global warming by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/605/how-much-global-warming-by-2100/","Metaculus","[]","At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) ""well below 2 ˚C"" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy. -[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have. -Therefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880? -Data for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway. -",479,3 "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. Machine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long? Assume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. Question resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040. Note that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040. ",968,3 -"Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. +"Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6322/trump-gain-10m-followers-on-new-platform/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers. Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? ---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. ---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. ---Platforms must be open to the public. -",178,3 -"How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/","Metaculus","[]","[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered. -Due to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning. -This question asks: -How big will the first crew sent to Mars be? -The question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. -Related questions: ----[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) ----[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) ----[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) ----[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) -",91,3 -"When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus","[]","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. -This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? -Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) -",199,3 +",179,3 "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/","Metaculus","[]","Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017. In 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items). In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less? Resolution This resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as ""> Dec 24, 2035"". ",98,3 -"How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background -========== - -According to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. -If labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. -Since the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster. -How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US. -",18,3 +"When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/","Metaculus","[]","In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. +This question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower? +Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm) +",204,3 "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6800/hungarys-total-fertility-rate-be-in-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors: [Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate): Seven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme @@ -1714,7 +1642,7 @@ Perhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns. [More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary). What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023? ---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) -",11,3 +",17,3 "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient), In economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...] A Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...] @@ -1742,6 +1670,22 @@ When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan? The date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars. For the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a ""passenger car"", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars. ",36,3 +"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). +Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? +The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. +",121,3 +"What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/","Metaculus","[]","Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. +New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration. +In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or ""instant runoff"" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner. +What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election? +This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. +Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. +",87,3 +"When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/","Metaculus","[]","Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing. +Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal. +When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics? +This question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author. +",16,3 "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/","Metaculus","[]","[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing). Amongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four: 1-- @@ -1767,28 +1711,6 @@ Hence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question f The submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. Any model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. ",23,3 -"What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/","Metaculus","[]","Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase. -New York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration. -In 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or ""instant runoff"" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner. -What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election? -This question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. -Question resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. -",87,3 -"When will a computer program be listed as an author in journal article in the Annals of Mathematics?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/","Metaculus","[]","Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing. -Additionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal. -When will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics? -This question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author. -",16,3 -"When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/","Metaculus","[]","[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords) -Unlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes. -[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014). -But more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition. -[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of) -When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected? -This question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote. -So this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected. -If the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. -",35,3 "How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/","Metaculus","[]","GPT stands for ""Generative Pre-Training"" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. In May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), The scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...] @@ -1803,7 +1725,45 @@ After 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as ""yes"". This question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations. In the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats? This will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021 -",151,3 +",152,3 +"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/","Metaculus","[]","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. +However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. +Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal. +Given the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible. +When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? +This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period. +For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060. +",41,3 +"Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population. +This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response. +Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025? +Resolution +This questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies: +---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) +---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) +---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) +---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) +---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) +---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) +---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) +---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) +---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) +---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) +---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) +In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency. +The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts. +This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/). +",379,3 +"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. +Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? +The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: +---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. +---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. +---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. +(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07) +The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. +The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. +",121,3 "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) The [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll) This question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States? @@ -1840,54 +1800,16 @@ Any of the following newspapers have produced at least one article which was pri A Wikipedia page about the platform survives for at least 1 year without being deleted. Admins will use their best judgement, in consultation with the community, to determine the right resolution. ",15,3 -"Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.54,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.45999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population. -This latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response. -Question: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025? -Resolution -This questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies: ----[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) ----The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) ----[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) ----[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) ----The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) ----[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) ----[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) ----[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) ----[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) ----[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) ----[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) -In case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency. -The relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts. -This question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/). -",379,3 -"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. -O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). -For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): -General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) -The average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6. -How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? -This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.* -For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). -If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT. -",64,3 -"What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. +"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. This question asks: -On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2? -This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. -If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. -If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous. -*As judged by a metaculus admin. -",59,3 -"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. -What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? -This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. -",69,3 -"Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence. +On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? +This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. +",58,3 +"Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence. According to its website: MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision. Recently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing: @@ -1898,19 +1820,47 @@ For the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical w Research is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. If MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. In case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be ""developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields"" will not apply. -",61,3 +",70,3 "World Population in 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050. Regrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion. Therefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050? We shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.) Resolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. ",312,3 -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -",69,3 +"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that +Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. +Will Hanson win the bet? +Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. +",192,3 +"What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. +What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? +This question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +In the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. +",70,3 +"When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/","Metaculus","[]","SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [""fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond""](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a ""rapid unscheduled disassembly"" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0). +SpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage. +When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? +---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. +---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. +---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. +",15,3 +"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. +Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? +This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. +",150,3 +"When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M. +On what date will this number reach 100M? +When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine? +The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). +Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M. +If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M. +",174,3 +"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. +[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. +[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure. +As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study. +This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030. +",29,3 "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Background ========== @@ -1924,22 +1874,7 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well. This question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise. -",236,3 -"Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). -Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester? -The university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester. -",121,3 -"Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6094/possible-youtube-ban-in-russia-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently (on 30 Dec 2020) [there is a draft legislation has been passed](https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/technology/russia-could-ban-facebook-twitter-youtube-for-censoring-content/2157891/) in Duma, Russian parliament, that will allow authorities to ban the websites for ""discriminating Russian media's content"". This legislation was passed after authorities received several complaints from the Russian media that their accounts were being censored by Facebook, YouTube and Twitter. Also, Russian political activist Alexey Navalny [published a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smhi6jts97I) on his YouTube channel, where he accuses FSB, Russian security service, of attempting to kill him. -Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021? -This question will be resolved positively if, according to at least 3 independent media reports, the entire Youtube website is blocked in Russia for at least 7 consecutive days in 2021. Otherwise it will be resolved negatively. -",150,3 -"When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6553/100m-americans-vaccinated-with-1-doses/","Metaculus","[]","As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" in the US as 34.7M. -On what date will this number reach 100M? -When will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine? -The [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). -Resolves to the first date on which the ""Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses"" at the above link is above 100M. -If the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M. -",158,3 +",240,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Those that are especially large in scope and severe in intensity are global catastrophic risks, which are risks that could inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale. Until relatively recently, most global catastrophic risks were natural, such as the supervolcano episodes and asteroidal/cometary impacts that led to mass extinctions millions of years ago. Other natural risks might include a pandemic of naturally occurring disease, non-anthropogenic climate change, supernovae, gamma-ray bursts, and spontaneous decay of cosmic vacuum state. Humanity has survived these natural existential risks for hundreds of thousands of years; which suggests that it is not any of these that will do us in within the next hundred. By contrast, through technological advances, our species is introducing entirely new kinds of risks, anthropogenic risks, which are man-made threats that have no track record of surviving. Our longevity as a species therefore offers no strong prior grounds for confident optimism. Examples of anthropogenic risks are nuclear war, advanced artificial intelligence, biotechnology and bioengineered organisms, human-made climate change and nanotechnology risks. @@ -1980,6 +1915,12 @@ This question resolves as positive if Silvio Berlusconi is elected to the office If no presidential election is held before the end of March 2022, this question resolves as ambiguous. The question closes retroactively at midnight the day before the first round of the next election for the Italian President is held. ",16,3 +"What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/","Metaculus","[]","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. +Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) +As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) +This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars? +This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity. +",76,3 "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/). If the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively. Each Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below. @@ -1988,21 +1929,42 @@ Using its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to During the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews). The Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online ""instant messaging"" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001. ",328,3 -"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. -What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? -The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. -",466,3 +"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. +In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. +Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? +This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). +",247,3 +"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. +It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. +Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? +Resolution details: +--- +Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. +--- +Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. +--- +Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. +--- +Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. +--- +In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). +--- +If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. +Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. +",519,3 "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). As AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can ""pass a Turing test"" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial. For example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech). By 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI? Related Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) ",130,3 -"Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 23 March 2021, an election is scheduled for the Israeli Knesset. -In Israel, voters do not vote for Prime Minister but instead vote for their preferred political party. There are 120 seats in the Knesset, and whichever candidate can gain a 61-seat coalition [gets to form the ruling goverment](https://www.jta.org/2019/09/26/israel/netanyahu-didnt-win-israels-election-so-why-is-he-getting-the-chance-to-form-a-government), with the President of Israel stepping in to lead the process. -Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021? -This question resolves positive if Benjamin Netanyahu is sworn in as Prime Minister of the thirty-sixth goverment of Israel, according to either official Israeli sources or credible open-source media reporting (The Jerusalem Post, AP, Reuters, etc.). In cases of unclear resolution or failure to form new government (meaning Netanyahu remains PM), go with whether Netanyahu is still listed as PM on 30 June 2021 [on the official gov.il site](https://www.gov.il/en/departments/prime_ministers_office). -",247,3 +"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): +Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. +If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. +Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? +If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. +If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. +",246,3 "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041? New resolution criteria: @@ -2014,34 +1976,21 @@ Resolution will be by credible media reports. Old resolution criteria: This question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency. ",188,3 -"Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Kamala Harris is, per Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris): -Kamala Devi Harris (/ˈkɑːmələ/ KAH-mə-lə, born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney who has served as the junior United States senator from California since 2017. She is the Democratic vice presidential nominee for the 2020 election. -If Biden wins the 2020 election ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/)), there seems to be a decent chance that he might not run for a second term given his age, and this would probably open up Harris to easily run for the 2024 Democratic nomination for president candidate. Another route is if Biden resigns the presidency or dies in office, making her acting president ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/)), she might have an easier time to get the 2024 nomination. -Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election? -If Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election, this resolves positively. If Harris does not run or loses, it resolves negatively. -If Harris is physically unable to run, e.g. because the election does not take place or she is deceased, this resolves ambiguous. -",246,3 -"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. -There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. -Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? -The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source. -",450,3 -"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. -While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. -The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: -Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions -When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? -This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. -Related question ----[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) -",116,3 -"Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. -There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. -The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd). -Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021? -This question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for ""S.F. Bay Area"" is <= $1.045mm -",40,3 +"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. +If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? +This question resolves: +---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. +---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. +---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. +",230,3 +"Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. +Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? +Resolution details: +--- +To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050. +--- +The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count. +",194,3 "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -2056,7 +2005,23 @@ Resolution Criteria Predictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. Resolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself. -",14,3 +",15,3 +"When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/","Metaculus","[]","The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally. +While the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people. +The WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows: +Vaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions +When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT? +This question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered ""administered"" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023. +Related question +---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) +",117,3 +"Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6307/median-bay-area-house-prices-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","During the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) there was an concerted shift to work from home. [Google](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/27/tech/google-work-from-home-extension/index.html), [Facebook](https://variety.com/2020/digital/news/facebook-permanent-work-from-home-1234613548/) and other large tech firms in the Bay Area have signalled that their staff might not need to come back to the office for a long time. +There have also been some [high profile](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/13/tech/silicon-valley-moving-to-austin-miami/index.html) tech executives and [companies](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/11/tech/oracle-headquarters-austin-texas-california/index.html) moving out of Silicon Valley. +The above factors are expected to reduce pressure on Bay Area housing costs, which have generally been [growing faster than the rest of the country](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=zXYd). +Will Median Bay Area House Prices decline by >= 5% in 2021? +This question resolves based on the YoY change in [Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes](https://www.car.org/en/marketdata/data/housingdata) for S.F. Bay Area from Nov-2020 to Nov-2021 using data from the California Association of Realtors. As of Nov-2020 this is $1.1mm, so this resolves positive if the Nov-2021 value for ""S.F. Bay Area"" is <= $1.045mm +",40,3 "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). @@ -2068,15 +2033,6 @@ This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). ",92,3 -"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. -What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? -The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. -You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). -Data -Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. -This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",118,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/","Metaculus","[]","The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. Currently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%. @@ -2089,7 +2045,16 @@ On January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated When will the US-EU border reopen? Resolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution. Resolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports. -",26,3 +",28,3 +"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. +What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list? +The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. +You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). +Data +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. +",118,3 "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/","Metaculus","[]","Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. However, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf). The prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)]. @@ -2098,19 +2063,23 @@ What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to U This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -",45,3 -"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. -When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? -This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. -This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. -Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). -If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths. -",192,3 -"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). -The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. -What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? ----The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). -",167,3 +",47,3 +"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context +======= + +The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). +Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. +Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. +Other Related Questions: +[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/) +[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/) +What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. +",31,3 "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","[]","[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne. At the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs) This question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom? @@ -2136,11 +2105,11 @@ GE has been [charged before](https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2009/2009-178.htm) f Note that GE being criminally convicted of fraud is not the same as having a financial situation that is insolvent. This question aims at the latter. Will General Electric (GE) file for chapter 7 or chapter 11 bankruptcy before 00:00 UTC Sep 18th of 2024? ",131,3 -"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. -Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). -Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? -This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. -",60,3 +"What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/). +The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. +What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? +---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). +",167,3 "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5993/washington-q1-2021-business-income--q1-2019/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context ======= @@ -2154,14 +2123,23 @@ Resolution Criteria Gross business income (across all industries) for each quarter can be found [here](http://apps.dor.wa.gov/ResearchStats/Content/GrossBusinessIncome/Report.aspx). Data until Q2 is currently available. Another question for Q1 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3923/what-will-washington-states-department-of-revenue-report-as-the-2020-q1-gross-business-income/) ",70,3 -"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/","Metaculus","[]","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)] -[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019. -In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark. -When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100. -Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -",195,3 +"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/","Metaculus","[]","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. +After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030). +What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? +This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. +",34,3 +"Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. +Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident). +Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021? +This question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list ""Apple Silicon"" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications. +",60,3 +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). +Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +",103,3 "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128) Human challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021. How many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people? @@ -2173,7 +2151,7 @@ Other possible world: ---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/). ",230,3 -"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. +"Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan. Alternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the ""status quo"" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)). Will the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050? This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050: @@ -2181,37 +2159,69 @@ This question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time ---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. ---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. This question resolves negatively otherwise. -",128,3 -"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. -U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days. -U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline. -The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward. -Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01? -The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence). -",156,3 -"What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. -A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv). -Data sources and more information: ----The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website ----[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) ----[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) ----[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) ----[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) ----[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) ----[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) ----[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) ----[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) -What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? -We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. -This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04). -",97,3 +",140,3 +"What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context +======= + +[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). +Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. +Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers +Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. +Related questions: +[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) +[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) +What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. +",92,3 +"When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/","Metaculus","[]","With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving ""herd immunity"" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.) +It is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains. +In this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). +When (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? +This will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.) +If data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. +",60,3 +"Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. +Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)? +For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it: +1a) Is widely reported in the media as ""Medicare for All"" +or +1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare +2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age. +3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered. +3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance. +3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively +If the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously. +For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously. +This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges). +This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first. +",131,3 "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world. The Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001. [The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024. This question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition? This question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed. This question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event. -",321,3 +",322,3 +"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/). +A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), +Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. +You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. +Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates). +See also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/). +Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? +For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions. +1-- +The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media. +2-- +The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation. +The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report. +If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. +",33,3 "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/","Metaculus","[]","[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries. What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100? This question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly. @@ -2223,14 +2233,6 @@ Will the Space Launch System successfully launch a human being to the Moon by 20 This question resolves positively when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon before the end of 2023. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. See also [When will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon/) ",204,3 -"When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/","Metaculus","[]","Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself. -However, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions. -Attempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal. -Given the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible. -When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year? -This question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of ""oldest person to have lived"" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period. -For example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060. -",41,3 "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of ""Dow Jones Index of Happiness"". According to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00. Historical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing). @@ -2238,12 +2240,6 @@ Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020? This question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020. Note: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the ""English-speaking world"". ",86,3 -"Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/","Metaculus","[]","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000). -This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025? -Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025. -If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. -Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. -",66,3 "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On November 22, 1963, Lee Harvey Oswald shot President John F. Kennedy in Dallas as he proceeded down the street in a motorcade. Kennedy died shortly thereafter, and the nation descended into mourning. The [JFK assassination](https://www.jfklibrary.org/JFK/JFK-in-History/November-22-1963-Death-of-the-President.aspx) not only led to countless conspiracy theories, but it also led to better Presidential security measures. JFK was the last President killed in office. But he wasn't the first. Our nation's checkered history has witnessed a disturbing number of assassinations, including: --- @@ -2255,6 +2251,12 @@ Leon Czolgosz, an anarchist, shot [President William McKinley](http://www.histor And there have been plenty of near misses as well. For instance, on March 30, 1981, John Hinckley Jr. [shot President Reagan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Ronald_Reagan), who fortunately recovered from the assault. It's been nearly 55 years since JFK's death. But how long will our collective good fortune – due in part to a vigilant, well trained Secret Service – last? More specifically, will we make it to at least 2100 without another Presidential assassination of a sitting President? ",281,3 +"Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/","Metaculus","[]","In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000). +This question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025? +Tesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025. +If Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question. +Will count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels. +",66,3 "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In yet another example of the universe's sense of humor, there is reason to believe that microwave radiation, rather than causing COVID-19, may in fact be an effective way of destroying the virus. [This paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep18030?fbclid=IwAR1oOzypwsGJPBhbIBapP9k-Hhh9P9l88rap73eHiM3BXxDCTeyCWYV9eew) argues that a resonance in sub-micron particles (like COVID-19) with ~10 GHz electromagnetic waves can lead to oscillations of the virus large enough to disrupt the particle. They also have experiments to back it up. And [this recent article](https://www.wpafb.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/2162707/afrl-scientists-investigate-can-microwaves-reduce-viability-of-airborne-coronav/) indicates that US Air Force seems also to be conducting experiments in that direction. @@ -2266,40 +2268,6 @@ This would be governed by [FCC rules 47 CFR Part 18](https://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bi --- Almost anything would count as long as its description includes something like microwave frequencies and something like ""viruses"". ",83,3 -"Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century. -Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy: ----[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); ----[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). -Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? -The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either: ----An explicit tax on childlessness. ----A tax levied on each person except those with children. -For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50. -The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count. -If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. -",86,3 -"What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context -======= - -The CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). -Understanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds. -Considered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run. -Other Related Questions: -[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/) -[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/) -What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. -",29,3 -"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus","[]","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period). -In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. -Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)). -But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? -For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. -",293,3 "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will we detect a [gravitational wave background](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_wave_background) attributable to cosmological sources? Gravitational waves are categorized according to their source. The first direct observation of gravitational waves were from binary inspiral -- the merging of a pair of black holes. [Waves from stochastic sources](http://www.phys.ufl.edu/courses/phz6607/fall08/LISA_sources_and_rates_WZK.pdf) may also exist. These would be more difficult to detect but could provide a view into the evolution of the very early universe, ""approximately seconds [after the big bang](https://cds.cern.ch/record/301296)"". For example, future space-based interferometers such as [LISA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laser_Interferometer_Space_Antenna), [TianQin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TianQin), or the [BBO](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bang_Observer) may detect waves caused by the [phase transition](https://journals.aps.org/prd/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevD.75.043507) which [current theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase_transition#Relevance_in_cosmology) believes occurred when the electroweak force separated. Will the GWB be detected by 2075? @@ -2327,16 +2295,6 @@ No coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two wee Coal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period In case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously. ",68,3 -"Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018. -Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021? -The market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true: ----Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. ----Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. ----Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. -(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07) -The market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days. -The period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. -",121,3 "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/","Metaculus","[]","In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). This was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent. The Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a ""max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds"", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server. @@ -2349,31 +2307,28 @@ When will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match? If positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs. *Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) ",152,3 -"Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. +"Will Tesla become the largest car company in the world (by sales) prior to 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/980/will-tesla-become-the-largest-car-company-in-the-world-by-sales-prior-to-2035/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins. In order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens. So, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? Data for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself. -",586,3 +",587,3 "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019. What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021? The “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD. -",114,3 -"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/","Metaculus","[]","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] -In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. -As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). -How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? -Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. -A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) -",59,3 -"Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. -They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. -This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. -Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton. -[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton. -This question asks: -On 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? -This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. -",58,3 +",115,3 +"Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. +The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. +Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden. +Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? +This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority. +",133,3 +"What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). +The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. +This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars? +In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution. +The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience: +Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 +",54,3 "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/","Metaculus","[]","Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants. There is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines. Data sources and more information: @@ -2387,24 +2342,27 @@ Data sources and more information: ---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April? This question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday). -",83,3 +",122,3 "When will GTA VI be released in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5772/when-will-gta-vi-be-released-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris. The latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV). When will GTA VI be released? This question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. This date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order. ",57,3 -"What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart. -Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination. -What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? -In this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution. -This question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article. -",15,3 -"Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that -Systems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. -Will Hanson win the bet? -Resolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025. -",191,3 +"Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Background +========== + +[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. +With its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. +According to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble. +Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation? + +Resolution +========== + +This question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. +Resolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples. +",14,3 "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/","Metaculus","[]","Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus): Metaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. @@ -2424,15 +2382,6 @@ If Metaculus evolves so much that either ""resolution"" or ""Metaculus question" --- If the concepts of ""when"", ""will"", ""last"" or ""occur"" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)). ",145,3 -"What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/","Metaculus","[]","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase. -The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface. -What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? -We will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit. -Related questions: ----[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) ----[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) ----[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) -",36,3 "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.44,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2014, Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel argued in the Atlantic that he [wants to die by 75](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/). At 75 and beyond, I will need a good reason to even visit the doctor and take any medical test or treatment, no matter how routine and painless. And that good reason is not “It will prolong your life.” I will stop getting any regular preventive tests, screenings, or interventions. I will accept only palliative—not curative—treatments if I am suffering pain or other disability. He was recently [named to the Biden-Harris COVID task force](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-coronavirus-adviser-zeke-emanuel-age-75-the-atlantic-essay). @@ -2442,36 +2391,33 @@ This question resolves negatively if he dies between the ages of 75 to 76, or re If he dies before turning 75, this question resolves ambiguously. He was born on September 6, 1957, so the latest this can resolve is September 6, 2033. ",55,3 -"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? +"Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? New York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal). As of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations. Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? This question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively. In cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) -",448,3 -"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). -With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. -The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ -When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? -Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. -",224,3 -"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/","Metaculus","[]","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. -The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" -On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? -The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" -If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. -",22,3 -"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on. -While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. -Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected. -How much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD? -If available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field ""cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5"" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/). -Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices): ----2016: $890 ----2017: $823 ----2018: $617 ----2019: $592 -",228,3 +",475,3 +"What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/","Metaculus","[]","[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase. +The longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface. +What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050? +We will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit. +Related questions: +---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) +---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) +---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) +",40,3 +"Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics: +The CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states. +--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) +CDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU. +The 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date. +As of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021. +Will the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union? +This question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative. +The election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed. +In the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened. +",186,3 "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -2487,7 +2433,18 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously. -",45,3 +",46,3 +"How much will GiveWell guess it will cost to get an outcome as good as saving a life, at the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/","Metaculus","[]","[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a ""cost per life saved"" metric to compare them on. +While they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be. +Over time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected. +How much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD? +If available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field ""cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5"" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/). +Similar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices): +---2016: $890 +---2017: $823 +---2018: $617 +---2019: $592 +",228,3 "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, all University of California campuses, including the flagship campus, UC Berkeley, temporarily authorized online delivery of all undergraduate courses. Online delivery of classes has persisted as the dominant mode of instruction throughout the Fall 2020 semester, and seems exceedingly likely to do so for the duration of the Spring 2021 semester. The office of the president has [announced](https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/press-room/uc-plans-fall-2021-person-instruction-across-its-10-campuses) that the university intends to resume in-person instruction in Fall 2021, one indication of widespread belief that the end of the pandemic is now in sight. The UC Berkeley [course catalog](https://classes.berkeley.edu/search/class/) currently lists only 19.8% of classes as either ""in-person"", ""flexible"", or ""hybrid"" with the large majority being listed as ""remote"". @@ -2512,14 +2469,6 @@ Resolution Criteria The Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed. ",22,3 -"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. -In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. -In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. -This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) -Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. -Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. -Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. -",504,3 "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/","Metaculus","[]","The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). Between 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). In Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0). @@ -2555,17 +2504,25 @@ At some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? The question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints). ",28,3 -"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): -The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. -The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. -By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)): -A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass. -A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not. -Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045? -This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. -The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. -Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. -",90,3 +"Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. +In the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide. +In the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation. +This question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election) +Resolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election. +Resolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner. +Resolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022. +",508,3 +"Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/","Metaculus","[]","Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him. +Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? +The question will resolve: +1--Rishi Sunak +2--Michael Gove +3--Jeremy Hunt +4--Priti Patel +5--None of the above +The question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue. +If the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. +",160,3 "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Fortune.com](https://fortune.com/2020/11/09/trump-prosecuted-biden-2020-election/): on Jan. 20 Trump will lose the immunity from federal criminal indictment that sitting presidents are granted under Justice Department policy. Prosecutors could ... re-examine the instances of possible obstruction of justice that former Special Counsel Robert Mueller uncovered in his probe into Russia’s 2016 election interference. Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025? @@ -2578,18 +2535,23 @@ What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale Resolution This question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD. ",123,3 +"Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): +The main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. +The competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. +By contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)): +A heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass. +A skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not. +Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045? +This resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. +The payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. +Positive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. +",90,3 "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/","Metaculus","[]","In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. Since 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008). Currently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources. What will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars? For the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion. ",132,3 -"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. -Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? -This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: ----Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). ----Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). -",171,3 "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring): Elden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more ""natural evolution"" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games. As of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released. @@ -2606,11 +2568,17 @@ Will the first publicly traded company to have a $10 trillion market cap be wort Resolution This resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion (adjusted to 2018 prices), AND it was worth less than or equal to $5 trillion one year before (also in 2018 prices). The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service. ",87,3 -"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? -A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. -Who will win? -Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049. -",874,3 +"Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. +Question: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023? +This resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both: +---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). +---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). +",171,3 +"Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. +There are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases. +Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases? +The question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source. +",452,3 "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.51,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market. Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026? After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))? @@ -2619,13 +2587,7 @@ After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 20 2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. 3--All prices are in USD. 4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. -",189,3 -"Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware. -[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations. -[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure. -As of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study. -This question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030. -",29,3 +",192,3 "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/","Metaculus","[]","The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42. The [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows: To remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol. @@ -2650,18 +2612,24 @@ The AI cannot have access to the internet during the test. If the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so. If the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. ",17,3 +"Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A [recent question,](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/348/will-one-of-the-verified-oldest-living-persons-in-the-world-reach-120-years-old-by-the-23rd-of-march-2024/) pertaining to the ""natural"" human lifespan, addresses a study suggesting that 125 is an absolute upper limit. But what if we keep pushing beyond the natural limit using medical technology to extend the human lifespan? +A [recent article](http://www.nature.com/news/scientists-up-stakes-in-bet-on-whether-humans-will-live-to-150-1.20818) discusses a bet between Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad as to whether any human born before 2001 would live to be 150, and be of sound mind. +Who will win? +Resolution is positive if a human born prior to 2001 is alive and of sound mind at an age of 150. Per the current list of oldest humans, the earliest possible resolution time is 2049. +",874,3 +"Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse? +Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021? +This resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000. +If the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/). +Data updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week). +This question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. +",440,3 "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently [economists are divided](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/04/10/upshot/medicare-for-all-bernie-sanders-cost-estimates.html) on the question of whether single-payer saves money. Some argues that due to increased efficiency and scale, total healthcare spending would go down. Others argue that due to increased use of healthcare, total costs would go up. Assume that before 2050, the United States adopts a single-payer healthcare system, defined as a healthcare service that provides coverage to all citizens in the United States. In the five years after the system is implemented, will healthcare costs go down as a fraction of GDP, compared to the previous five years? The date of implementation is defined as the first day during which some citizens are provided care under a single-payer plan. Statistics will be obtained by averaging the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare, as reported by an official government organization of the United States, during the 5 years prior to implementation and the 5 years after implementation, excluding the year of implementation. For example, if single-player healthcare is implemented in June 2031, then the relevant time-periods for comparison are 2025 - 2030 and 2032 - 2037. This question can close early if a single-payer healthcare system is implemented. If costs go down, this question resolves positively. If costs go up, this question resolves negatively. If a single-payer healthcare system is not implemented in the United States before January 1st 2050, this question resolves ambiguously. ",74,3 -"What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/","Metaculus","[]","In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020. -Tesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [""Tesla stock price is too high imo.""](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184) -As of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business) -This question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars? -This question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called ""Tesla"" (rather than ""Grohmann Automation"" or ""Tesla Energy"", say), should inherit the Tesla identity. -",76,3 "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","India is a middle-income country [ranking 3rd in GDP and 124th in GDP per capita](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) (both in PPP-adjusted dollars). India's economy grew uninterruptedly between 1980 and 2020. In 2020, [the COVID-19 pandemic caused it to plunge into a recession for the first time in 40 years](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021). The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report currently [estimates this contraction at -10.29% of GDP](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October/weo-report?c=534,&s=NGDP_RPCH,NGDPD,PPPGDP,NGDPDPC,PPPPC,PPPSH,PCPIPCH,&sy=1980&ey=2020&ssm=0&scsm=1&scc=0&ssd=1&ssc=0&sic=0&sort=country&ds=.&br=1). Will India's GDP grow in the first three quarters of 2021? @@ -2682,31 +2650,24 @@ In many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035? This question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city. ",29,3 -"Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia. -It may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. -Question: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime? -Resolution details: ---- -Resolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia. ---- -Resolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia. ---- -Resolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister. ---- -Also resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office. ---- -In the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China). ---- -If Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively. -Note that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively. -",519,3 -"If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year. -If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025? -This question resolves: ----Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. ----Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. ----Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. -",229,3 +"Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021. +U.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days. +U.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline. +The Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward. +Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01? +The question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence). +",194,3 +"What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020. +What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? +The question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. +You can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/). +Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. +[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] +",58,3 +"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? +Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? +The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. +",175,3 "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles). In Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and ""at the jockey's discretion"" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html). A jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for ""overuse of the whip"" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html). @@ -2720,16 +2681,12 @@ This question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one If no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. Changes to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the ""Melbourne Cup"", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. ",23,3 -"Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))? -Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022? -The question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party. -",175,3 "Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The 2008 financial crisis was [""considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008). According to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%). Question: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)? Estimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers. This question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/). -",775,3 +",777,3 "How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6103/number-of-bips-adopted-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin. We can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin. How many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021? @@ -2742,39 +2699,57 @@ To qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to h What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States? This question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. Any disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. -",84,3 -"Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard. -Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050? -Resolution details: ---- -To resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050. ---- -The life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count. -",194,3 +",86,3 "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD). Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). -",51,3 -"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. -As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp). -What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021? -Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#). -",160,3 +",53,3 +"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/","Metaculus","[]","Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. +What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? +This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. +The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. +The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. +",71,3 +"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. +O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). +For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): +General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) +The average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6. +How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023? +This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.* +For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). +If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT. +",65,3 "How many deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the year 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2942/how-many-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-in-the-us-in-the-year-2035/","Metaculus","[]","Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a ""serious, worldwide threat to public health"" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/). In 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask: How many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report? Resolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved. Related question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/) ",52,3 -"The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe). -Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. -Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? -This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. -It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name. -",870,3 +"Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century. +Recently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy: +---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); +---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). +Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election? +The question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either: +---An explicit tax on childlessness. +---A tax levied on each person except those with children. +For the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50. +The tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count. +If the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. +",89,3 +"When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/","Metaculus","[]","From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan): +4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK. +4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date. +The UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later. +[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context. +When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine? +This question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000. +If there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report. +",399,3 "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The team of scientists behind The Kidney Project has created an implantable bioartificial kidney that consists of a hemofilter module to process incoming blood and a bioreactor that sends sugars and salts back into the blood. The [website for the project](https://pharm.ucsf.edu/kidney/device/faq) states that the project team is ""in the midst of preclinical testing for the Hemofilter, while preclinical testing for the Bioreactor has just begun."" The website further states that the project team ""expect[s] to arrive at [the] final stage of clinical trials by late 2021."" @@ -2794,6 +2769,22 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself. ",20,3 +"What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. +A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv). +Data sources and more information: +---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website +---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) +---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) +---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) +---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) +---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) +---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) +---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) +---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) +What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? +We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. +This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04). +",125,3 "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/","Metaculus","[]","Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year. As a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. If consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. @@ -2801,28 +2792,23 @@ Data: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transport By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025? Resolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously. ",24,3 +"What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/","Metaculus","[]","The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810. +A plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv). +What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? +This question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. +",92,3 +"When will India send their first own astronauts to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station). +With China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic. +The currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’ +When will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space? +Will resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit. +",225,3 "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/","Metaculus","[]","[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): The blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911. Interesting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment) What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01? The question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval. ",24,3 -"Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/). -A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), -Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. -You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. -Lesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute. -Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates). -Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? -For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions. -1-- -The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media. -2-- -The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation. -Alcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report. -If Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. -",31,3 "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250). In 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering. @@ -2851,7 +2837,14 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100. For the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. -",67,3 +",69,3 +"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). +[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. +What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030? +This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). +GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. +",55,3 "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect. The trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html). What will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030? @@ -2859,6 +2852,14 @@ The resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided If this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously. (See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.) ",173,3 +"When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/","Metaculus","[]","[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)] +[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019. +In December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark. +When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100. +Inflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +",206,3 "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The question concerns the likelyhood of the U.S. CPI excluding Food and Energy (""Core CPI"") reaching above 3.0% on a 12-month basis until December 2023. The ""Core CPI"" is released monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Series ID: CUUR0000SA0L1E). Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? @@ -2881,12 +2882,21 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== The resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March -",75,3 -"What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/","Metaculus","[]","Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a ""hybrid regime"" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. -After what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030). -What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? -This question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously. -",34,3 +",78,3 +"When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/","Metaculus","[]","The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period). +In the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. +Commercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)). +But when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space? +For the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded. +",297,3 +"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. +This question will resolve positively if: +---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and +---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. +This question will resolve ambiguously if: +---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. +---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. +",574,3 "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled [""The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.""](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842). Also, fun aside: Metaculus' own [@Anthony](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/8/) got a shout-out in the acknowledgements.) Essentially, they expanded on an idea from Bostrom's Superintelligence that a firm working on transformational AI technology could limit global inequality as a result of their breakthrough by pre-committing to keep only a fraction of the fabulous profits, and distribute the rest. Though there are numerous obstacles barring the path to making this plan a reality, the FLI research lowers many of these bars, including investigating the legal apparatus for enacting such an agreement and envisioning some of the logistical means by which a windfall might be distributed. What really remains is buy-in. If this plan will work, it will work because the companies positioned to develop windfall AI technologies signed on to a Windfall agreement in advance. Before 2025, will any of the following companies/organizations ratify a Windfall Clause? @@ -2905,73 +2915,29 @@ For the purposes of this question, a Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agre What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021? The OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine. ",219,3 -"What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). -Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted. -What will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products? -This question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. -The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories. -The index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question. -",103,3 -"What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context -======= - -[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). -Patterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future. -Total retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers -Understanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy. -Related questions: -[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/) -[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/) -What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",91,3 -"When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/","Metaculus","[]","With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving ""herd immunity"" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.) -It is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains. -In this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). -When (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%? -This will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.) -If data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. -",60,3 +"Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.77,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.22999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/). +A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), +Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. +You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. +Lesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute. +Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates). +Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? +For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions. +1-- +The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media. +2-- +The patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation. +Alcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report. +If Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. +By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. +",53,3 "How many NASA ""space launch system"" (SLS) launches before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The first test launch of NASA's new ""Space Launch System"" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/) Meanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/) On the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the ""Europa Clipper"" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the ""Lunar Gateway"" space station as currently envisioned. How will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads? Question will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later. ",193,3 -"Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster. -Conditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)? -For the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it: -1a) Is widely reported in the media as ""Medicare for All"" -or -1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare -2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age. -3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered. -3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance. -3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively -If the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously. -For example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously. -This question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges). -This question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first. -",131,3 -"What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background -========== - -The role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. -In 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. -As solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. -Predictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt. -What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? - -Resolution Criteria -=================== - -Resolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). -",38,3 -"On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), ""about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden"". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists. +"On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), ""about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden"". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists. Some other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started. Will the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year? This question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of: @@ -2990,7 +2956,21 @@ Joe Biden lost in 2020 This question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views. This question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November. November is defined according to UTC -",181,3 +",183,3 +"What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6147/global-cost-of-a-solar-pv-module-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Background +========== + +The role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. +In 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. +As solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. +Predictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt. +What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021? + +Resolution Criteria +=================== + +Resolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). +",38,3 "Will AI progress surprise us?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What is the likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of Human Level Machine Intelligence (i.e. machines that can accomplish a wide range of important tasks at least as good as human experts)? Discontinuity in progress occurs when a particular technological advance pushes some progress metric substantially above what would be expected based on extrapolating past progress. If AI progress is unusually lumpy, i.e., arriving in unusually fewer larger packages rather than in the usual many smaller packages, then future progress might arrive faster than we would expect by simply looking at past progress. Moreover, if one AI team finds a big lump, it might jump way ahead of the other teams. According to [AI Impacts](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/), discontinuity on the path to AGI, lends itself to:
  • A party gaining decisive strategic advantage
  • A single important ‘deployment’ event
  • Other very sudden and surprising events @@ -3004,13 +2984,6 @@ Two previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39 When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available? This question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution. ",74,3 -"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. -Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. -The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? ----This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. ----It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. ----In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. -",97,3 "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Multimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf). @@ -3025,7 +2998,14 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---71 for the calendar year 2018 ---91 for the calendar year 2019 ---181 for the calendar year 2020 -",53,3 +",56,3 +"Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","There is an active question on [""Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/) however this concerns both the question of when the referendum will be held and how long it would take to implement a leave result. This question is only about the referendum result. +Scotland is a country that's part of [the United Kingdom, which also comprises England, Wales, and Northern Ireland (and some overseas dependencies)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom). Scotland has however been increasingly considering leaving the union over [the last decades](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_independence), with [one referendum being held in 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) that resulted in a stay vote (55.3%). However, [there is talk of another referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_second_Scottish_independence_referendum) following the UK's decision to leave the EU (Brexit). [Opinion polling for Scottish independence can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence), though there is currently no planned referendum. +The question is: Will Scotland vote to leave the UK union in the next referendum? +---This question applies to the next held referendum, whenever it is held. +---It must be a referendum that has an option to leave the union with England. It resolves positively if that option receives the most votes, and negatively otherwise. +---In case no referendum is held before 2050, the question resolves ambiguously. +",97,3 "When will PHP die?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/","Metaculus","[]","[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. According to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all): PHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know. @@ -3048,6 +3028,16 @@ Despite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming l This question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath. General language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question. ",96,3 +"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/","Metaculus","[]","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. +In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. +When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? +Resolution +This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below. +This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price. +Data +These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): +2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) +",61,3 "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). With new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). In Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) @@ -3055,6 +3045,20 @@ How many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calenda This question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla. Tesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.). ",106,3 +"What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/","Metaculus","[]","Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539). +[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool. +What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023? +This question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst ""currently available"" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/). +GPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +The question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. +",68,3 +"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. +In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence). +However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote). +When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? +This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale. +ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government. +",61,3 "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 2014, around 250 legally dead people in the United States were in cryonic preservation. At least 1,500 people around the world have active plans to join them in cryopreservation in an attempt to thwart (or at least delay) permanent death by freezing (or more technically 'vitrifying') their corpses after their legal death. Many of these 'cryopatients' have had their whole bodies preserved; others have opted to have only a cheaper neuropreservation. You can probably guess what that means. For more information on the current state of the art in cryonics, you can visit [Alcor's website](https://alcor.org/Library/html/vitrification.html), which is one of the most prominent organisations in the field. This question asks: will any 'patients' who have been in cryonic preservation for at least one full year before 2050 be successfully revived before 1 January 2050? For the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 24 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. @@ -3065,12 +3069,39 @@ When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500? This question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends). If the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found. If no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021. -",187,3 +",188,3 +"What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory. +What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021? +The [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021. +",468,3 "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/","Metaculus","[]","A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners. Recently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available. This question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use? The question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors. ",122,3 +"What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. +As we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp). +What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021? +Resolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#). +",168,3 +"How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/","Metaculus","[]","[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)] +In March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US. +As of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing). +How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022? +Resolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time. +A previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) +",60,3 +"What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. +The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. +This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US? +The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive). +Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press. +",153,3 +"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). +In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. +This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? +Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts. +",162,3 "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November. The TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). @@ -3085,10 +3116,32 @@ So when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.o This question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time). This question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place. ",36,3 +"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life +longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. +Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? +An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. +For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. +This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)). +Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator. +If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously. +",82,3 +"Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Context + +Although democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. +This question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021? + +Resolution Criteria + +This question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE. +",1312,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). ",22,3 +"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/","Metaculus","[]","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. +What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? +This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. +",35,3 "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Prohibition_of_Nuclear_Weapons), The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It was adopted on 7 July 2017, opened for signature on 20 September 2017, and will enter into force on 22 January 2021. For those nations that are party to it, the treaty prohibits the development, testing, production, stockpiling, stationing, transfer, use and threat of use of nuclear weapons, as well as assistance and encouragement to the prohibited activities. For nuclear armed states joining the treaty, it provides for a time-bound framework for negotiations leading to the verified and irreversible elimination of its nuclear weapons programme. @@ -3139,7 +3192,15 @@ Here's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will 2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, 3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. 4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). -",10,3 +",11,3 +"When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). +The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). +In the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in ""tier 1"" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people. +When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places? +This question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house. +By 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions. +To be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say ""There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed."" +",149,3 "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). Natural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input. @@ -3154,7 +3215,14 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 -",65,3 +",66,3 +"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. +The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. +Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. +This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025? +Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. +A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). +",589,3 "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/","Metaculus","[]","Markets and Markets reports that: “The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.” These numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. @@ -3164,11 +3232,28 @@ What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period? Resolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. Data: Using the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7% -",46,3 +",47,3 +"When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day. +When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19? +This question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test. +This should resolve according to [the ""by date of death"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the ""by date reported"" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media. +Note that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier). +If still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths. +",196,3 "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Bitcoin has seen a sharp increase in value in recent months and its adoption by Tesla has sparked an interest as it as a universally acceppted form of payment and many people are wondering if it will be accepted by e-commerce giants as a method of payment. Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? A report from a reputable news source that [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (or a local counterparts in any country, such as [Amazon.fr](http://Amazon.fr), [Amazon.nl](http://Amazon.nl), etc.) is accepting Bitcoin as a direct payment method for any product. ",49,3 +"How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/","Metaculus","[]","[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States. +O*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated). +For the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets): +General and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39) +The average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6. +How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030? +This question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation* +For example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase). +If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT. +",69,3 "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/","Metaculus","[]","The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue? The admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously. ",216,3 @@ -3181,6 +3266,25 @@ Related questions: ---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) ---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* ",104,3 +"Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020. +As of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. +[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. +Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021? +This question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021. +In the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered. +",10,3 +"On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/","Metaculus","[]","After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease. +The New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as ""extremely high,"" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read ""very high."" +On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as ""low""? +The question resolves with the first date that reads as ""low risk"" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first ""very high risk"" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates ""low risk"" as a category before ever assessing the risk as ""low."" +If the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected. +",36,3 +"The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe). +Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it. +Will there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? +This question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union. +It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name. +",871,3 "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD? @@ -3192,6 +3296,28 @@ Over 57,000 people have signed an online petition to “place Lebanon under a Fr So the question is: Will Lebanon come under French rule again before 2025? ---It must be formally recognized as French rule by at least 3 other Western powers. ",115,3 +"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: +Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: +""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution."" +The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? +---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. +---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. +",62,3 +"Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.21999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead? +Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021? +The question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021. +An Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) +",1108,3 +"Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","related questions on Metaculus: +---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) +Beginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html). +In Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) +The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent) +[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists. +Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01? +This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. +As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. +",24,3 "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/","Metaculus","[]","Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that: The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants. While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution. @@ -3216,6 +3342,16 @@ In the unlikely event of full authorisation being granted without emergency use If an EUA is granted but later revoked, this would not change the outcome of the question. This resolves positively even if the authorization is limited to certain classes of higher-risk patients, as was the case for Bamlanivimab, and even if other governmental agencies (eg. NIH) do not recommend it as standard of care. ",38,3 +"How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. +How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01? +Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). +",41,3 +"What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/","Metaculus","[]","The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart. +Johnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination. +What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? +In this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution. +This question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article. +",22,3 "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/","Metaculus","[]","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70. @@ -3284,7 +3420,7 @@ This question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = Data Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",77,3 +",78,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92. @@ -3293,7 +3429,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on m This question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",54,3 +",57,3 "By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6559/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). By January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment? @@ -3306,8 +3442,8 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1 When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -",68,3 -"Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.56,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. +",73,3 +"Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6371/uk-festival-shambala-to-take-place-aug-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.44999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [""Will any festivals happen this summer?""](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone: In the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to. But if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again. @@ -3316,7 +3452,7 @@ Will UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021? If a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met. If not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement. Shambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian. -",66,3 +",67,3 "How large will Monaco be in 2035?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5802/how-large-will-monaco-be-in-2035/","Metaculus","[]","[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires) With an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world. To continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png) @@ -3338,7 +3474,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---127 for the calendar year 2018 ---275 for the calendar year 2019 ---420 in the calendar year 2020 -",59,3 +",61,3 "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Mars is often disussed as a target for mass colonization and eventual terraforming, notably by SpaceX. The Moon does not seem to be viewed as a future 'alternative' to Earth in the same way that Mars is. Stats to consider: Distance @@ -3398,7 +3534,7 @@ What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 s This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",50,3 +",51,3 "What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5666/donald-trumps-net-worth-in-2024/","Metaculus","[]","Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion. What will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024? This question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2. @@ -3419,6 +3555,15 @@ In [late 2019](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/string-theory-do Will there be a Nobel Prize in Physics awarded for work in string theory before 2050? This question resolves positively if a Nobel Prize in Physics is widely considered by credible media to have been awarded to someone for their work on string theory before 2050. ",63,3 +"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. +At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) +An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. +What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? +This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. +Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. +Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). +In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. +",73,3 "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. In November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm) Committee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time. @@ -3436,16 +3581,7 @@ This question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1 Exactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. The data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE) Normal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. -",73,3 -"What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade. -At the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html) -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? -This question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -Domain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)). -In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",71,3 +",76,3 "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/","Metaculus","[]","As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US. When will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19? This question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home). @@ -3520,7 +3656,7 @@ One nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territor High quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as ""at war."" For the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute). The date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers? -",115,3 +",117,3 "Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5173/transformers-effect-on-ai-research/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","OpenAI's transformer based [GPT-3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-3) has generated a lot of hype around the capabilities of current methods in deep learning. GPT-3 seems to be capable of creative works of writing as shown by [Gwern](https://www.gwern.net/GPT-3). This creative potential, if applied to scientific writing or code generation, may accelerate research progress. If successfully applied to deep learning research, this acceleration may be self-reinforcing potentially having implications on the development of an AGI system. Indeed the Metaculus question [""When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?""](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) updated 10 years forward in the months following the announcement of GPT-3. Will transformer derived architectures accelerate progress in deep learning? This question resolves positively if by 2025 there are at least 5 papers which successfully used transformer derived architectures to find improved neural network architectures or architecture components. Each paper must either use the transformer model to generate code for the architecture or to generate a natural language description of the architecture. Each of these papers must be cited at least 100 times as indicated by the corresponding Google Scholar page. @@ -3609,7 +3745,7 @@ What will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 s This question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. Historical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"" if you wish to edit it. This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. -",75,3 +",77,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. The miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes. @@ -3627,7 +3763,7 @@ Related Questions ---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) If the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication. -",219,3 +",220,3 "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6768/cumulative-1st-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/","Metaculus","[]","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). As of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed. Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. @@ -3637,7 +3773,7 @@ Data sources and more information: ---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) What will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31? This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. -",128,3 +",159,3 "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[According to current IPCC estimates](http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf), unmitigated greenhouse emissions are likely to lead to global temperature increases of 2.6ºC-4.8ºC by 2100. If this happened, there’d likely be significant humanitarian harms, including more severe weather, food crises, and the spread of infectious diseases which would disproportionately affect the world’s worst off. Moreover, the [estimated humanitarian impacts of climate changes are likely to be highly nonlinear](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks): marginal temperature increases are expected to cause more damage at already-increased temperatures (i.e. going from 3ºC to 4ºC is expected to be significantly worse than going from 1ºC to 2ºC). [According to some](https://www.givewell.org/shallow/climate-change/extreme-risks), there is also a non-negligible chance — perhaps around 10% — that unmitigated emissions will lead to global temperature increases even higher than 4.8ºC. More generally, estimates of temperature increases resulting from greenhouse emissions have a [“fat” right tail](https://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/the-fat-tail-of-climate-change-risk_b_8116264.html), meaning that there is a low, but non-negligible chance of very high temperature increases. Hence, there is a non-negligible chance that unmitigated emissions may produce consequences which could be catastrophic for life on Earth. @@ -3676,7 +3812,7 @@ B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [sig In response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing. What will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)? This question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021. -",77,3 +",92,3 "By February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6517/maximum-compute-ai-experiment-by-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). In 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run. @@ -3690,7 +3826,7 @@ If there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1 When we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below. In order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period. The results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. -",66,3 +",67,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6540/object-detection-index-be-on-2023-02-15/","Metaculus","[]","Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. The index is constructed as follows: --- @@ -3709,7 +3845,7 @@ A benchmark will be removed from the index if: If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. For the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. -",66,3 +",67,3 "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On June 22nd 2020 [Apple announced transitioning Mac hardware from Intel processors to Apple Silicon](https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2020/06/apple-announces-mac-transition-to-apple-silicon/), i.e. Apple-designed ARM-based chips. In November 2020, Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 90% chance that Apple will release new iMacs powered by Apple silicon in 2021. Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021? @@ -3723,7 +3859,7 @@ The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures th Historical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns). What will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s? This question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit. -",77,3 +",79,3 "Will online poker die by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/) Pluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train. In 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/) @@ -3820,7 +3956,7 @@ Will Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 202 ---It must happen before 2022. ---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). ---An ""official list is"" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. -",348,3 +",353,3 "When will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1584/when-will-the-first-publicly-traded-company-achieve-a-10-trillion-market-capitalisation/","Metaculus","[]","This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)). Apple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap). To put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices. @@ -3853,7 +3989,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023- This question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",44,3 +",46,3 "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/","Metaculus","[]","[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query). The current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79. What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? @@ -3916,7 +4052,7 @@ In another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-la This question sets a scaled-back goal: Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030? This will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030. -",1105,3 +",1106,3 "Will any sovereign government issue a formal apology for their treatment of farm animals by 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3772/will-any-sovereign-government-issue-a-formal-apology-for-their-treatment-of-farm-animals-by-2200/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.15000000000000002,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2007, a formal apology for slavery [H.Res. 194](https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/house-resolution/194/text) entered the United States congress and was later passed unanimously by the senate. For centuries, animal rights/welfare activists have made the comparison between slavery and animal agriculture. Writing in 1789, Jeremy Bentham [said](https://www.utilitarianism.com/jeremybentham.html) The day has been, I grieve it to say in many places it is not yet past, in which the greater part of the species, under the denomination of slaves, have been treated ... upon the same footing as ... animals are still. The day may come, when the rest of the animal creation may acquire those rights which never could have been withholden from them but by the hand of tyranny. The French have already discovered that the blackness of skin is no reason why a human being should be abandoned without redress to the caprice of a tormentor. [...]. The time will come when humanity will extend its mantle over everything which breathes... "" @@ -3936,7 +4072,7 @@ This question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs This resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat. If this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as ""> Oct 5, 2031"". ",85,3 -"Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, ""soft power"" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). +"Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4922/will-there-be-active-warfare-between-the-united-states-and-china-by-the-end-of-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9299999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, ""soft power"" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). Could this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as ""kinetic conflict"") in the near future? Some Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): When I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon. @@ -3945,7 +4081,7 @@ My own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflic On the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we ""may"" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be ""too surprised"" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is ""a possibility we can't rule out"". Thus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026? This question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in ""kinetic conflict"", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a ""cold war""). -",145,3 +",146,3 "Will Stephen Bannon be found guilty of fraud?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5105/will-stephen-bannon-be-found-guilty-of-fraud/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As reported by [Al-Jazeera 21st August 2020](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/steve-bannon-trump-adviser-arrested-fraud-200820134920664.html): Former White House adviser Steve Bannon, an architect of Donald Trump's 2016 election victory, was arrested on a yacht and pleaded not guilty on Thursday after being charged with defrauding donors in a scheme to help build the president's signature wall along the US-Mexico border. The charges were contained in an indictment ([PDF](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/press-release/file/1306611/download)) unsealed in Manhattan federal court, which alleges Bannon and three others ""orchestrated a scheme to defraud hundreds of thousands of donors"". @@ -4021,7 +4157,7 @@ If this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to The time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC. If bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves ""No"". If [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. -",691,3 +",705,3 "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6676/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-april/","Metaculus","[]","One dose vaccines also count. How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). @@ -4094,7 +4230,7 @@ How much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the Resolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction. Growth will be calculated as where is ""Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year "" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report). Both figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead. -",54,3 +",56,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6155/image-classification-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image. Index @@ -4123,7 +4259,7 @@ As of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infec Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021? This question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection. Note that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question. -",88,3 +",89,3 "When will the US FDA grant Neuralink permission to sell and implant a brain-machine interface device into general consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/","Metaculus","[]","Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). [Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs). Since its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees. @@ -4257,7 +4393,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well. -",50,3 +",51,3 "Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6641/scotus-vacancy-to-arise-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021. Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021? @@ -4395,7 +4531,7 @@ The question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as t Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) -",429,3 +",430,3 "How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6525/cv-publications-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). [Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data. @@ -4410,7 +4546,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 ---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 ---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 -",51,3 +",52,3 "Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5463/mars-sample-mission-vs-starship/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","NASA's first successful lander was the Viking 1 lander in 1975. Since then, NASA's missions to Mars have increased in number and complexity. While NASA's stated ultimate objective is bringing humans to Mars and back, an intermediate goal is that of [sample-return](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_sample-return_mission#NASA_proposals), bringing a sample of material from the surface of Mars back to Earth. Given a 2-year trip each way, a mission tenatively planned to launch in 2026 would return samples to Earth around 2030. SpaceX has been working on its own ""Mars"" program, the Starship. Elon Musk has claimed that the Starship may launch for Mars as soon as [2024](https://twitter.com/SciGuySpace/status/1317230110391652352). Such a mission would land on Mars in 2026. Will NASA return a sample of material from the surface of Mars to Earth before SpaceX Starship lands on Mars? @@ -4441,13 +4577,13 @@ Positive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selec Positive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases. In case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as "">2090-10-25"". ",57,3 -"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. +"Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. Members of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. There are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building. Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20? This question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state. Resolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. -",169,3 +",171,3 "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/","Metaculus","[]","A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century. In the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight. This question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? @@ -4511,7 +4647,7 @@ Data sources and more information: ---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) What will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)? This question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service’s [report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) for the dates from 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-03-21 to 2021-03-27. Daily updates are [provided by the Department of Health and Human Services](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state). The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github [data repository](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04). -",65,3 +",76,3 "What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6231/object-detection-index-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14? @@ -4553,7 +4689,7 @@ If [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently sto "Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009. This question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. This question can be resolved at any time. -",282,3 +",283,3 "Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone), officially called the euro area, is a monetary union of 19 of the 28 European Union (EU) member states which have adopted the euro (€) as their common currency and sole legal tender. The monetary authority of the eurozone is the Eurosystem. [The euro is the second largest and second most traded currency in the global foreign exchange market after the United States dollar.](https://www.bis.org/publ/rpfx13fx.pdf) The Eurozone consists of Austria, Belgium, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain. Other EU states (except for Denmark and the United Kingdom) are obliged to join once they meet the criteria to do so. No state has left, and there are no provisions to do so or to be expelled. @@ -4604,7 +4740,7 @@ This question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the Decemb ---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. ---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. This is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights. -",70,3 +",79,3 "Will Charm Industrial still exist in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4865/will-charm-industrial-still-exist-in-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -4669,7 +4805,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 ---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 ---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 -",56,3 +",57,3 "If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4997/a-stock-price-rise-preceding-agi/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, will the company have performed at least 1.5x as well as the global equities market over the prior 12-2 months? This question defines Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the same way as [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). If the first AGI is developed by a publicly traded company, this question resolves according to the following methodology: @@ -4689,7 +4825,7 @@ What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be This question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. -",62,3 +",64,3 "How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6323/flights-on-commonpass-health-passport-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as ""a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,"" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [""immunoprivilege""](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured ""if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity""; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase. How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass? --- @@ -4738,7 +4874,7 @@ This will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA? This will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame. If the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous. -",227,3 +",228,3 "How many of the ""priority paths"" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4912/how-many-of-the-priority-paths-identified-by-80000hours-will-still-be-priority-paths-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/). Much of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as ""one of [the] highest-impact options"" for those who have ""the potential to excel"" in those paths. In 2020, the priority paths are: @@ -4763,22 +4899,6 @@ Decision-making psychology research and policy roles This question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as ""priority paths"" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are ""essentially the same as"" one of the priority paths listed above. ""Essentially the same"" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin. If 80,000hours no longer lists ""priority paths"", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0. ",26,3 -"Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/). -A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics), -Early attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies. -You can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy. -Jeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates). -See also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/). -Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived? -For the purpose of this question, a ""patient"" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions. -1-- -The patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media. -2-- -The patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation. -The Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report. -If the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -By its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. -",25,3 "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/","Metaculus","[]","Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10). When will China become a democracy? This question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published. @@ -4815,7 +4935,7 @@ Note this is specifically about AGI, not Artificial Super Intelligence. if, in t "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue. Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)? This will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time. -",288,3 +",289,3 "When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 sites?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3275/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-130-sites/","Metaculus","[]","According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31. When will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)? This question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130. @@ -4838,7 +4958,7 @@ Alcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel Will a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100? This question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds. This demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021. -",38,3 +",39,3 "How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6157/ai-safety--other-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -4873,7 +4993,7 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: How many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-04-01? Judged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc). ",65,3 -"Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660): +"Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3458/will-there-be-a-culturally-significant-development-in-aging-research-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660): I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived. If half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's. This question resolves positively if any of the terms ""aging"", ""ageing"", ""anti-aging"", ""anti-ageing"", ""longevity"", ""lifespan"", ""rejuvenation"", or ""life extension"" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC: @@ -4890,7 +5010,7 @@ It also resolves positively if: Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event. * ""longevity research"" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard. -",171,3 +",188,3 "Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model), A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list), @@ -4963,7 +5083,7 @@ Note that the resolution does not require COVID-19 — or anything else — to b Whereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%. It is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars? This question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket. -",421,3 +",423,3 "Hutter prize: when will a compression method achieve 1 bit-per-character on a 100MB sample of Wikipedia?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/487/hutter-prize-when-will-a-compression-method-achieve-1-bit-per-character-on-a-100mb-sample-of-wikipedia/","Metaculus","[]","The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is ""to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI."" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the ""Human World Knowledge,"" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia. Since 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more ""understanding"" and intelligence in general. The bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN. @@ -4992,22 +5112,10 @@ Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become p Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025? The acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources. If Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. -",380,3 +",381,3 "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/","Metaculus","[]","The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question. This question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics). ",90,3 -"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity). -[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. -Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. -[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS. -On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021. -70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020 -However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2. -When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? -This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. -While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. -If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. -",679,3 "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales. Our [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. EV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19. @@ -5029,6 +5137,18 @@ the question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14 positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation If any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values. ",151,3 +"When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/","Metaculus","[]","Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity). +[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. +Early results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%. +[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS. +On November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021. +70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020 +However, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2. +When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19? +This question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus. +While this question is intended as an operationalization of ""herd immunity"", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator. +If this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. +",680,3 "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/","Metaculus","[]","[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter. But will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654). What will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? @@ -5036,12 +5156,6 @@ We will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a Resolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source. Inspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars. ",103,3 -"Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.43000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes. -The [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021. -Biden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden. -Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? -This question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority. -",126,3 "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","One of the key aims of India’s [Human Spaceflight Programme](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme) is to successfully complete a crewed landing on the moon. Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by the end of 2026? This will resolve on the basis of credible media reporting that India has successfully landed at least one astronaut on the moon. The relevant rocket must be principally engineered and operated by India's Space Programme, such as the Indian Space Research Organisation. @@ -5191,12 +5305,6 @@ This question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 203 If the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution. Similar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/). ",14,3 -"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) -According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. -Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? -Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? -The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. -",420,3 "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/","Metaculus","[]","Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time. In 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans. @@ -5208,18 +5316,24 @@ When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space? ---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. ---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. ",96,3 -"Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6699999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)). +"Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.67,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.32999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [""maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.""](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [""Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.""](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback) +According to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be. +Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job? +Will FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office? +The question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. +",421,3 +"Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.32,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6799999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)). A tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests). As of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation. Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021? This question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt. There have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously. -",204,3 +",205,3 "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/","Metaculus","[]","The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data). On March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/). This question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date): import pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(""https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv"") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) -",294,3 +",295,3 "What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5659/max-number-of-us-daily-covid-19-cases/","Metaculus","[]","According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6. What will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025? The number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously. @@ -5271,7 +5385,7 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: The 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans. Will the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections? This resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican. -",358,3 +",360,3 "When will the UK hold its next general election?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6368/next-uk-general-election/","Metaculus","[]","--- The UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election. --- @@ -5291,14 +5405,14 @@ Governments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the When will the UK hold its next general election? This question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself. ",52,3 -"Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020. +"Will a 100 trillion parameter deep learning model be trained before 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020. Now, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/), The Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. For comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. Also recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently. I have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. This question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively. -",246,3 +",249,3 "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement between fifteen Asian countries, including members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and five of its regional partners. RCEP will connect about [30% of the world’s people and output](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/), which likely makes it the largest free trade agreement in the world. The RCEP is generally seen as a successor to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), which [President Trump withdrew from in 2017](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/unpacked/2017/03/24/trump-withdrawing-from-the-trans-pacific-partnership/). President-elect Joe Biden has been [noncommittal on whether he would join the RCEP](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/china-trade-rcep.html). Biden would need the approval of the Senate to join the trade pact. Will the U.S. join the RCEP trade pact in 2021? This will resolve on the basis of whether Biden signs an agreement for the U.S. to join the RCEP following approval by the U.S. Senate. @@ -5389,7 +5503,7 @@ For the purposes of this question, ""minimum wage"" refers to the federal minimu If there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0. If the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous. For the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually. -",28,3 +",29,3 "Longbets series: will the annual rate of US labor productivity growth for the year 2025, as measured by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, be 2 percent or above?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5865/longbets-us-productivity-growth-2-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Robert D Atkinson and Alberto Forchielli summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/751/). Robert D Atkinson argued, U.S. productivity growth is at its lowest rate, perhaps since the founding of the Republic. Some experts, like Robert Gordon, argue that this will be the new new norm, arguing that all the ""low hanging fruit has been picked."" Rather, a new wave of innovations, grounded in areas such as new materials, robotics and AI, are likely to finally get to the ""s-curve"" take-off point within the next 5 to 10 years, thereby powering organizations to boost labor productivity (eg., produce more per hour of labor) @@ -5404,15 +5518,15 @@ Will oil consumption over the 2020-2025 period be lower than in 2019? This question will resolve positively if no year in 2020-2025 (inclusive) has greater oil consumption than 2019 according to the EIA. It will resolve negatively if any of those 6 years has greater consumption. It will resolve ambiguous if the EIA does not post consumption data for 2025 by the end of 2026, and no comparably authoritative source can be found (for which that source's 2019 data would be necessary). ",164,3 -"Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.84,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.16000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. +"Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6637/21-us-gdp-growth-to-set-centurys-record/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.87,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century. Will US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century? This question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing). -",68,3 +",74,3 "Will the star Betelgeuse be observed to go supernova before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3531/will-the-star-betelgeuse-be-observed-to-go-supernova-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon, Even at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes. This question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC. -",85,3 +",86,3 "What will Denmark rank in GDP per capita (PPP) in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5000/what-will-denmark-rank-in-gdp-per-capita-ppp-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) ""the market value of all the final goods and services produced"". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources. One notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China). Denmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030? @@ -5437,14 +5551,6 @@ Presence of [Dark matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_matter) is implied The question asks whether a Nobel Prize will be awarded before 2050 for work done primarily later than 2015, and directly related to explaining what Dark Matter is, as mentioned in the prize rationale. If the prize is awarded before 2050 the question will close retroactively to the day before prize announcement. If the prize is not awarded before 2050, the question will close the day before the Nobel Prize announcement of 2049. ",204,3 -"If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election. -This question will resolve positively if: ----someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and ----Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. -This question will resolve ambiguously if: ----Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. ----Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. -",571,3 "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/","Metaculus","[]","The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations. At the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/). The question asks: If there is a ""Third World War"", what longitude will it start in? @@ -5483,7 +5589,7 @@ Still, I urge people to predict in good faith. The question resolution date has "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5907/number-confirmed-global-covid-deaths-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted. -",156,3 +",157,3 "Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones. There are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy. In [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as Vegetarian (Including Vegans) @@ -5496,10 +5602,6 @@ When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from th The issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries. If the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.” ",221,3 -"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. -Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? -This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. -",192,3 "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists). But whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that: The [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago. @@ -5513,18 +5615,22 @@ Russia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://ww It's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an ""aggressive"" time line. Can we get there before the 2030s? Resolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise. -",460,3 +",461,3 +"Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6599999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been on trial in the Jerusalem District Court since May 2020 for [bribery, fraud and breach of trust](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51868737). Netanyahu has been indicted in three separate cases: Case 1000 accuses him of receiving gifts in exchange for favors, Case 2000 accuses him of offering to promote the circulation of a newspaper in exchange for favorable coverage, and Case 4000 accuses him of helping a shareholder in a telecom company with regulatory issues in exchange for positive coverage. The [evidentiary stage of the trial is set to begin in February 2021](https://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-trial-may-face-further-delay-as-judges-hint-indictment-must-be-revised/), though this may be delayed. +Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? +This will resolve on the basis of an official court statement or otherwise credible media reporting announcing that Netanyahu has been convicted on at least one charge. Conviction on any charge unrelated to this trial would also count for positive resolution. +",192,3 +"How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/","Metaculus","[]","One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. +In the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). +How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030? +This question resolves as the ""Number of jobs"" for the profession ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT. +",66,3 "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6710/us-school-staff-to-get-1st-dose-by-31-march/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [""every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.""](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program. Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March? This will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. If there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively. 5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution. -",123,3 -"How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/","Metaculus","[]","One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. -In the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm). -How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030? -This question resolves as the ""Number of jobs"" for the profession ""Computer and Information Research Scientists"" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT. -",65,3 +",125,3 "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S. The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an [alternative online-only version](https://www.wsop.com/2020/online/). Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021? @@ -5615,11 +5721,11 @@ How many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in Resolution This resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. ",156,3 -"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question). +"On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question). Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction. On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating? This question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays. -",138,3 +",139,3 "What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6769/cumulative-two-dose-us-vaccinations-31-march/","Metaculus","[]","Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose. As of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Public health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. @@ -5630,11 +5736,11 @@ Data sources and more information: What will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31? This question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 2 Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine. 8 March edit: on 8 March the CDC's vaccine tracker at [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vac…](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) changed the “receiving 2 doses” figure to ""fully vaccinated” to account for people who receive one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which has been authorized as a single-dose regimen (by contrast, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are authorized as two-dose vaccines). This question will resolve on the basis of the new ""fully vaccinated"" figure reported by the CDC. -",102,3 -"Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question. +",133,3 +"Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6551/us-vaccination-rate-exceeds-3m-daily-doses/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question. Will the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021? Resolves to ""yes"" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to ""no"" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021. -",91,3 +",93,3 "When will most people in England be able to meet socially in a group of six in public outdoor places?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6168/meetings-of-six-people-outside-in-england/","Metaculus","[]","On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc). The [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person). Before this lockdown, it was possible in some regions (those in 'tier 3' or below out of four) to meet others in public outdoor places, such as beaches or parks, but only in groups of up to 6 people. @@ -5677,7 +5783,7 @@ The United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchands Americans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups. When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA? This question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change. -",128,3 +",135,3 "What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3581/what-will-the-global-weighted-average-levelized-cost-of-energy-of-onshore-wind-be-in-2022-in-2018-usd-per-kwh/","Metaculus","[]","Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/). According to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.). What will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh? @@ -5713,7 +5819,7 @@ The query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=& ---203 for the calendar year 2017 ---350 for the calendar year 2018 ---700 for the calendar year 2019 -",57,3 +",58,3 "Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5318/nih-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/). Recently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d). This question asks: @@ -6141,7 +6247,7 @@ If one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will repl If it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. If there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. The maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. -",138,3 +",145,3 "What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/","Metaculus","[]","The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. [The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era. It remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast. @@ -6169,13 +6275,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released. ",38,3 -"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr. -Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. -What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD? -This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. -Prices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). -Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). -",45,3 "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). AI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/). @@ -6190,7 +6289,14 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---127 for the calendar year 2018 ---275 for the calendar year 2019 ---420 in the calendar year 202 -",54,3 +",55,3 +"What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr. +Google has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning. +What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD? +This question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD. +Prices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). +Alphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). +",46,3 "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/","Metaculus","[]","[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). The question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide? For the purposes of this question, ""currently undiscovered"" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion. @@ -6340,18 +6446,11 @@ Researchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when ad When will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market? This question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit. ",44,3 -"Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5700000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. +"Will a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launch by 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1348/will-a-mission-to-land-a-spacecraft-on-europa-launch-by-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. Galileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. Two upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. Question is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029. -",139,3 -"Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes: -Achim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro: -""All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution."" -The question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030? ----Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. ----De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. -",61,3 +",142,3 "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/). The novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change. What will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo? @@ -6392,7 +6491,7 @@ Analysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger wea Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022? This question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice. This question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place. -",179,3 +",182,3 "Will there be a Vegan Country by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/614/will-there-be-a-vegan-country-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Interest in Veganism has increased substantially in recent years, but it is unclear whether the current wave of Veganism will become the movement that will make eating animal products a thing of the past or just turn out to be another fad. It was [previously asked](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/581/will-interest-in-veganism-further-increase-in-2018/), whether the month with the maximum internet interest in Veganism in 2018 would have a interest at least 25% greater than the month with the greatest interest in 2017. This question, however, does not assess whether Veganism can reach its ultimate potential. Some Vegans believe the consumption of animal products to be sufficiently immoral to justify a legal ban. Therefore, a society in which Veganism has reached its full potential would ban the consumption of animal products. @@ -6411,7 +6510,7 @@ Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data The new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k). If the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous. Previous question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/) -",210,3 +",211,3 "Will there be a complete 4 year interval in which world output doubles, before the first 1 year interval in which world output doubles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/736/will-there-be-a-complete-4-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles-before-the-first-1-year-interval-in-which-world-output-doubles/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.71,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.29000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","As of 2018, it's taken [about 16 years for the world economic output to double](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). So it might seem absurd to talk about it doubling in one or even four years. But there is a potential major change on the horizon: very advanced Artificial Intelligence. An important consideration in how to approach the [AI alignment problem](https://mapandterritory.org/formally-stating-the-ai-alignment-problem-fe7a6e3e5991) is the speed of the takeoff from massively subhuman AI to massively superhuman AI. The effectiveness of capacity limitation, as well as the existence of fire alarms for AI safety, are heavily dependent on this, for example. Paul Christiano [suggests](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) operationalising the takeoff speed in terms of economic growth. A slow takeoff is one where the economy doubles in four years before the first time it doubles in one year, and a fast takeoff is one where it does not. (See the same article for Christiano's list of arguments regarding fast vs. slow takeoff.) @@ -6456,8 +6555,8 @@ Recently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wik What will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021 This question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. This question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for. -",132,3 -"Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: +",133,3 +"Will Germany fail to meet their coal commission’s goals?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2666/will-germany-fail-to-meet-their-coal-commissions-goals/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.41000000000000003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: ---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; ---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; ---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. @@ -6467,7 +6566,7 @@ In 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brow Will Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039? This question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039. Historical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019). -",88,3 +",90,3 "Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4923/will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-by-ai/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Millennium Prize Problems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Prize_Problems) are seven problems in mathematics that were stated by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. A correct solution to any of the problems results in a 1 million dollar prize being awarded by the institute to the discoverer(s). The problems are: ---[The Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/birch-and-swinnerton-dyer-conjecture) ---[Hodge conjecture](https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/hodge-conjecture) @@ -6539,7 +6638,7 @@ What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to U This question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted ""Value Added"" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind). in Q2 of 2020, ""Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)"" generated $315.7bn and ""Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services"" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%. Historical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing). -",42,3 +",43,3 "Will there be a G4 EA H1N1 flu virus pandemic before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4763/will-there-be-a-g4-ea-h1n1-flu-virus-pandemic-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In June 2020, [a new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic was identified in China by scientists.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53218704) According to the BBC: It emerged recently and is carried by pigs, but can infect humans, they say. @@ -6598,7 +6697,7 @@ In 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with More information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election). Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? Resolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously. -",37,3 +",42,3 "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5896/sota-on-pascal-context-at-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). The PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively. @@ -6609,13 +6708,6 @@ This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved o Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. ",175,3 -"Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries. -The price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. -Bitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. -This question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025? -Resolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025. -A flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold). -",582,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). [Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. [WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia. @@ -6764,7 +6856,7 @@ The profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits befor The fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...] Returns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress. If by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. -",59,3 +",60,3 "When will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6144/when-will-us-oil-rigs--1000/","Metaculus","[]","Background ========== @@ -6800,7 +6892,7 @@ See the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/ques Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship. Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship? This question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously. -",78,3 +",85,3 "What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a % of GDP be in 2045 per the most recent World Bank data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3833/what-will-north-koreas-merchandise-trade-as-a--of-gdp-be-in-2045-per-the-most-recent-world-bank-data/","Metaculus","[]","Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars. South Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK ""wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank"". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions. @@ -6853,7 +6945,7 @@ An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode]( What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set. Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",63,3 +",65,3 "Will there be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/111/will-there-be-a-total-solar-eclipse-on-june-25-2522/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.040000000000000036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [NASA](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/solar.html), as of question writing the next total solar eclipse over the U.S. will be August 21, 2017. It will cut right through the center of the country, in a swathe from Oregon to South Carolina. A little over 500 years later, on June 25, 2522, there is [predicted to be](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2501-2600.html) a nice long (longest of that century) solar eclipse that will pass over Africa. In terms of astronomy, the 2522 eclipse prediction is nearly as secure at the 2017 one: the [primary uncertainty](http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEhelp/rotation.html) is the exact timing of the eclipse, and stems from uncertainties in the rate of change of Earth's rotation -- but this uncertainty should be of order minutes only. @@ -6934,7 +7026,7 @@ Other questions on the Collatz Conjecture: "What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5931/number-of-commercial-flights-on-30-june-2021/","Metaculus","[]","The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019. What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021? Flightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects. -",154,3 +",155,3 "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/","Metaculus","[]","For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time. In 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be ""very strong"" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. If Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are ""very strong""? @@ -7156,6 +7248,10 @@ If the question has not resolved by January 1 2100, it resolves ambiguously. How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT? See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/) ",194,3 +"How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/","Metaculus","[]","Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015. +How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT? +See also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/) +",194,3 "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images. As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3. @@ -7194,7 +7290,7 @@ If or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose pr If an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale. When will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? Resolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request ""build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech."" -",502,3 +",503,3 "How many countries will allow 17 year olds to vote in 2026?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6327/youth-voting-around-the-world-in-2026/","Metaculus","[]","Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election. A number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021. How many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026? @@ -7344,7 +7440,7 @@ Novavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial Sanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021? The FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered. -",236,3 +",237,3 "What will be the gross receipts of the SENS Research Foundation in the 2021 tax year, as reported on their Form 990?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4442/what-will-be-the-gross-receipts-of-the-sens-research-foundation-in-the-2021-tax-year-as-reported-on-their-form-990/","Metaculus","[]","The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space. SENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. As a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information. @@ -7630,13 +7726,13 @@ This question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custod The imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard. Convictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment ",40,3 -"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. +"Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5749/covid-19-strain-that-circumvents-the-immunity/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response. This question asks: Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021? This question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively. If coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old. 2 February clarification: A ""significant reduction in immunity"" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper. -",542,3 +",556,3 "Who will win the 'worm wars'?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4919/who-will-win-the-worm-wars/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to GiveWell's [Cost-Effectiveness Analysis](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zLmPuddUmKsy3v55AfG_e1Quk-ngDdNzW-FDx0T-Y94) (CEA), mass deworming ranks among the very best global health interventions. The evidence for deworming comes primarily from a [single study](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21428), which showed large economic effects which were present a full decade after treatment. However, other studies have shown [little](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(16)30242-X/fulltext) to [no effect](https://www.cochrane.org/CD000371/INFECTN_deworming-school-children-low-and-middle-income-countries) of mass deworming on weight, cognitive ability, school attendance or other health outcomes, and the weight placed on the initial paper has proved [controversial](https://www.vox.com/2015/7/24/9031909/worm-wars-explained). In GiveWell's CEA, deworming benefits are modeled as being entirely due to long-term economic effects like those seen in the study mentioned above. Despite being heavily discounted due to concerns about replicability, in expectation these economic effects are expected to dominate the short term health effects of the interventions. Givewell's position is explained, in detail, in the following two blog posts: @@ -8286,7 +8382,7 @@ Brynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued tha What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01? This resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted. As of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%. -",45,3 +",46,3 "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1385/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-psilocybin-be-a-clinically-approved-treatment-for-end-of-life-anxiety-by-2027/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is the second in a [three-part series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--qualia-research-institute) of questions suggested by the [Qualia Research Institute](https://qualiaresearchinstitute.org/), with particular thanks to Andrés Gómez Emilsson, whom you can find blogging at the always interesting [QualiaComputing.com](https://qualiacomputing.com/) Psilocybin, the active compound that gives magic mushrooms their magic, is classified as a Schedule 1 drug by the FDA, making legal research very time-consuming and expensive. Like MDMA, it is a psychedelic drug that has well-documented effects on a number of behavioral disorders, and yet is categorized by the government as a highly addictive, unsafe substance with no conceivable medicinal use. It is also in the public domain, and therefore virtually impossible to profit from. Despite the fact that academics must pay over [13 times the price of the drug as its sold on the street,](https://qz.com/1235963/scientists-who-want-to-study-psychedelic-mushrooms-have-to-pay-7000-per-gram/) research in support of finding a way to market continues. And it cannot come fast enough for patients with fatal diagnoses, whose struggles with anxiety and depression are magnified exponentially by their illnesses, and for whom even a single dose can be transformative. @@ -8425,8 +8521,8 @@ Closes retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolve "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5906/number-confirmed-global-covid-cases-by-2022/","Metaculus","[]","As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country. What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021? The [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted. -",194,3 -"Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries. +",195,3 +"Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6455/an-eu-animal-welfare-label-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.61,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries. In its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. On December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. In a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation. @@ -8434,7 +8530,7 @@ The [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/datase Will the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025? This will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/). The label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. -",13,3 +",15,3 "By January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6148/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2022-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). Recent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/). @@ -8462,7 +8558,7 @@ As of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency If Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897. Will Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024? This question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution. -",275,3 +",276,3 "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6229/sota-on-wikitext-103-2024-12-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models. The [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. @@ -8916,17 +9012,7 @@ The relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default set This question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950? For the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data. Edit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%. -",270,3 -"When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/","Metaculus","[]","Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance. -In their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD. -When will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour? -Resolution -This question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below. -This question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price. -Data -These are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/): -2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD) -",58,3 +",272,3 "What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/","Metaculus","[]","Context ------- @@ -9236,11 +9322,6 @@ and either of the following: ---it generates damage in excess of £100,000. This question resolves negative if such attacks don’t come to pass before 2025. Finally, it resolves ambiguous if the UK remains in the EU till 2025. ",158,3 -"What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/). -In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%. -This question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month? -Resolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts. -",160,3 "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.91,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, also known by her initials AOC, is an American politician and a member of the Democratic Party, as well as the [Democratic Socialists of America](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/27/17509604/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-democratic-socialist-of-america). [Having taken her seat aged 29, Ocasio-Cortez is the youngest woman ever to serve in the United States Congress.](https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/politics/ocasio-cortez-youngest-woman-ever/index.html) She is a member of [""The Squad""](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Squad_(United_States_Congress)), and is decidedly on the left-wing of the Democratic Party. Americans must be aged 35 or over to run for president. AOC will turn 35 a month before election day 2024, meaning that the first three election cycles where she is eligible to run are 2024, 2028, and 2032. Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles? @@ -9433,11 +9514,11 @@ For this question to resolve as positive, the [Mauna Loa Observatory](http://www This question asks: What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year? This question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the resolve date. This question is a part of the Higher Education Series ",94,3 -"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach. +"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an ""Interplanetary Transport System"" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach. The timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX ""gets lucky and things go according to plan"", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. There have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline. Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? -",5082,3 +",5084,3 "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Project Vesta in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. @@ -9569,13 +9650,6 @@ Data [Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/). If you wish to make a copy of the data, you can do this by clicking ""file"" and then ""make a copy"". If you make useful additions to the dataset, feel free share the file in the comments. ",236,3 -"What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/","Metaculus","[]","The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita). -The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179. -This question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars? -In case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution. -The historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience: -Year,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 -",53,3 "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.74,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Every year, Time magazine publishes an issue with [a person of the year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year), ostensibly the person with the greatest impact on the news of that year. Since 2000, every Time person of the year on an election year was the president-elect; George Bush in 2000 and 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Donald Trump in 2016, and [Joe Biden and Kamala Harris](https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2020-joe-biden-kamala-harris) in 2020. Before then, the president-elect was also Time person of the year in 1992, 1980, 1976, 1964, 1948, and 1932. Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? @@ -9845,7 +9919,7 @@ Related Questions ---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) ---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) ---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) -",87,3 +",88,3 "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -9862,18 +9936,7 @@ Resolution Criteria =================== Resolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously. -",48,3 -"Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans. -A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. -These senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations. -Senescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan). -One major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. -You can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/). -This question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030? -This question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. -For the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so. -The question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe. -",188,3 +",49,3 "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/","Metaculus","[]","The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on ""growing teeth"" as of 2020-01-18 writes that: Growing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal. The following timeline is included in the article: @@ -9888,6 +9951,17 @@ Tooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the f There has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as ""Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth"" and ""Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals"". The question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy? ",89,3 +"Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans. +A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. +These senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations. +Senescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan). +One major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. +You can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here](https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/). +This question asks: Will the US FDA (or any US national successor body in the event that the FDA as currently constituted is renamed, reorganized or ceases to exist during the relevant timeframe) approve a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the United States before January 1 2030? +This question resolves positively in the event that such regulatory approval is granted. Note that the approval must be given before January 1 2030, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date. +For the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a 'senolytic therapy' if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so. +The question resolves negatively if no such therapy is approved, and resolves ambiguously if the FDA is disbanded before any approval is given and/or no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it during the relevant timeframe. +",188,3 "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/","Metaculus","[]","Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180), Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. Nick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014), @@ -10757,7 +10831,7 @@ Will Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030? This question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there. This question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030. UTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. -",115,3 +",116,3 "When will Virgin Galactic's first paid flight occur?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/469/when-will-virgin-galactics-first-paid-flight-occur/","Metaculus","[]","In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018. His statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that ""It's always 'the end of the year.'"" The company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the ""feather"" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space. @@ -10926,7 +11000,7 @@ edited 2020-03-05 to change the statement from ""typical person"" to ""some iden ",108,3 "Will China recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan by 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3620/will-china-recognize-the-sovereignty-of-taiwan-by-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively. -",228,3 +",229,3 "Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Let's not mince words. Mosquitos are a scourge unto the Earth. Consider this horrifying set of details from a [2002 Nature article](https://www.nature.com/news/2002/021003/full/news021001-6.html): Malaria may have killed half of all the people that ever lived. And more people are now infected than at any point in history. There are up to half a billion cases every year, and about 2 million deaths - half of those are children in sub-Saharan Africa. @@ -11089,15 +11163,7 @@ Related Questions ---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) ---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) -",51,3 -"What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. -We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption). -However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. -The US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.): -“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.” -What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? -Resolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets. -",229,3 +",52,3 "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In 1965, the [Gros Michel Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gros_Michel_banana) was declared ""commercially extinct"", owing to a world-wide outbreak of [Fusarium Wilt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_disease) (or Panama Disease). [Fusarium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusarium_oxysporum_f.sp._cubense), a deadly fungus, had devastated commercial plantations worldwide. In spite of its greater vulnerability to rough handling, Commercial growers replaced the Gros Michel with the [Cavendish Banana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cavendish_banana) because of its robustness to Fusarium infection. Then, in the early 1990's, a new strain of Fusarium (called Tropical Race 4, or TR4) [was discovered](http://www.promusa.org/Tropical+race+4+-+TR4#Origin) killing off Cavendish trees in plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia. Later studies confirmed that [Cavendish trees are highly susceptible to TR4 infection.](https://web.archive.org/web/20140407090355/http://banana-networks.org/bapnet/files/2012/11/Risk-Assessment-EAHB1.pdf) In 2003, the [International Network for the Improvement of Banana and Plantain](http://www.promusa.org/INIBAP) [predicted](https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg17723784-800-going-bananas/) that the Cavendish could face extinction within 10 years. Obviously that hasn't happened yet. However, [in August 2019](https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/08/16/751499719/devastating-banana-fungus-arrives-in-colombia-threatening-the-fruits-future), [TR4 was found killing off Cavendish trees in Colombian Plantations](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/banana-fungus-latin-america-threatening-future/), prompting the Colombian Government to declare a state of emergency. Hope remains that [a genetically modified Cavendish](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01670-6) can be developed to maintain global banana supply. Others hope that another natural type of banana can be identified to replace the Cavendish. @@ -11108,21 +11174,20 @@ A few fine points: ---This question will be resolved on 2029-12-31. Interruptions to the global banana supply prior to that date will not trigger an early positive resolution. ---""Available"" means that such bananas can be purchased from an ordinary grocery store (e.g. Wal-mart, Kroger, etc.). Niche markets (e.g. specialist fruit wholesalers, non-franchise farmer's markets, or stores which might carry Gros Michel bananas in 2019) will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. ",73,3 +"What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. +We use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption). +However, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. +The US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.): +“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.” +What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? +Resolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets. +",229,3 "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/","Metaculus","[]","What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election? This question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)). If Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously. Note that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office). This is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself). ",102,3 -"Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.35,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.65,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life -longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. -Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years. -(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.) -A ""therapy"" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds. -Longevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively. -If no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously. -The date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy. -",85,3 "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/","Metaculus","[]","Context ======= @@ -11300,6 +11365,10 @@ Also there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside o We may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries. The resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty. ",233,3 +"Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/","Metaculus","[]","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired. +The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? +For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024. +",202,3 "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/","Metaculus","[]","California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. These stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. There are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California. @@ -11309,10 +11378,6 @@ When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets ava Resolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state. If these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time. ",25,3 -"Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/","Metaculus","[]","During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired. -The question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? -For the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024. -",199,3 "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/","Metaculus","[]","Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. Some cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)). When will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas? @@ -11595,6 +11660,9 @@ The company remains unprofitable, and [had losses of nearly $2 billion in 2018.] This question asks: Will The We Company, or any parent company thereof, file for either Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States prior to 1 January 2025? Resolution is by citation of a relevant court filing or credible media reports in the financial press. The applicable filing need not lead to a grant or ruling by any court or regulatory body; it must only be submitted in order for a positive resolution. ",387,3 +"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/","Metaculus","[]","Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born? +If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously. +",71,3 "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.94,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","In the quest for ""strong"" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is ""brain emulation,"" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. In an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such ""Ems"" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.) There is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/) @@ -11602,10 +11670,7 @@ To gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of ""Ems" Will the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? Resolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then. (Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.) -",423,3 -"Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/","Metaculus","[]","Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born? -If there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously. -",71,3 +",425,3 "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/","Metaculus","[]","[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples. As of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans. Therefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks: @@ -11659,19 +11724,7 @@ Similar questions: ---The client must pay for the trip. ---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. ---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. -",105,3 -"Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a ""phantom genre."" -The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying. -Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? -Resolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030. -(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish). --------- EN ESPAÑOL: -España tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma». -El público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando. -¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género? -La respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030. -(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español). -",58,3 +",106,3 "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/","Metaculus","[]","This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). [arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. Many machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf). @@ -11688,6 +11741,18 @@ Running this query for previous years gives: ---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 ---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 ",95,3 +"Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international readership with a universally embraced SF classic. Most writers and titles seem to be invisible not only to foreign readers and spectators, but also to their local peers, to the extent of being considered a ""phantom genre."" +The Spanish-speaking public, however, enjoys science fiction like the rest of the world. Spanish literature does not lack imagination, and indeed has produced cultural phenomena such as magical realism during the Latin American Boom. Rapid technological development has made science fiction increasingly familiar, not only a resource for entertainment, but also a valuable tool in marketing or future studies. And numerous Spanish authors keep trying. +Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors of this genre? +Resolution will be positive if a short story, novelette, novella or novel originally written in Spanish and published by the end of 2029, in any medium, is granted one of the following awards: Hugo, Nebula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon or Arthur C. Clarke, before the end of the year 2030. +(Note: except for the Hugo Prize, these prizes currently require a previous translation into English. The answer will be positive if and only if the work was originally written and published in Spanish). +-------- EN ESPAÑOL: +España tiene una presencia testimonial en el panorama internacional de la ciencia ficción. A pesar de que haber preconizado ideas como la máquina de tiempo (El Anacronopete) y de que autores de prestigio como Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarín o Pedro Salinas se aproximaran al género, la ciencia ficción española no ha logrado cautivar a los lectores extranjeros con un clásico universalmente aceptado y la mayoría de los escritores y títulos parecen invisibles, no solo fuera de España, sino también entre sus pares de profesión. Hay quien la ha llegado a describir como un «género fantasma». +El público español disfruta, sin embargo, con la ciencia ficción como en el resto del mundo, y la literatura en español no solo no carece de imaginación, sino que ha producido fenómenos culturales como el realismo mágico del boom latinoamericano. El rápido desarrollo tecnológico ha convertido a la ciencia ficción en algo cada vez más familiar, no solo un recurso para el entretenimiento, sino una herramienta para el marketing y el debate de ideas. Numerosos autores españoles lo siguen intentando. +¿Ganará una obra de Ciencia Ficción escrita y publicada originalmente en español hasta el año 2029 incluido alguno de los grandes premios internaciones que acreditan a los grandes autores del género? +La respuesta será SI, si un cuento corto, novela corta (en cualquiera de sus extensiones) o novela escrita en castellano y publicada hasta el año 2029, en cualquier medio, recibe uno de los siguientes premios: Hugo, Nébula, John W. Campbell, Theodore Sturgeon o Arthur C. clarke, antes del cierre del año 2030. +(Nota, en la actualidad excepto el premio Hugo al que podría acceder directamente una obra escrita en español, el resto requieren una traducción previa al inglés. La respuesta será positiva si y solo sí la obra fue escrita y publicada con anterioridad en español). +",58,3 "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/","Metaculus","[]","In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf). When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus? Resolution @@ -11729,16 +11794,6 @@ This question asks: On 2030/7/1, will Project Vesta still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach? This question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4858/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-project-vesta-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative. ",55,3 -"Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. -Since the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election. -Erin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012. -On policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a ""CANZUK"" agreement, getting ""tough on China"", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal. -Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024? -This question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen. -In the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open. -Holding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. -Further, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. -",55,3 "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.55,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The [Labour Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)) is a centre-left political party in the United Kingdom that has been described as an alliance of social democrats, democratic socialists and trade unionists. The party's platform emphasises greater state intervention, social justice and strengthening workers' rights. As of 2020, it was last in power from 1997 to 2010. Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030? This question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Labour Party. @@ -11775,13 +11830,6 @@ No resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV The aforementioned ""consensus"" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below. If does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members. ",56,3 -"When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/","Metaculus","[]","In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. -In 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence). -However, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote). -When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held? -This resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale. -ETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government. -",60,3 "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/","Metaculus","[]","From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon), The marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy. The best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds. @@ -11797,7 +11845,7 @@ When will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth fo ---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. ---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same ""B10XX"" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that ""this stage previously flew the ABC mission"", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. ---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. -",161,3 +",170,3 "Will at least one US state secede from the Union before 31 December, 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4678/will-at-least-one-us-state-secede-from-the-union-before-31-december-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United States of America has in the past acquired new territories, such as the [Alaskan purchase of 1867](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase), and the purchase of the [former Danish West Indies in 1917](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danish_West_Indies). Sometimes territories have changed status, such as when [Hawaii became a state in 1959](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawaii_Admission_Act). However, no state has so far left the union without a civil war ensuing and eventually causing its [reintegration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Civil_War). However, there are currently active secessionist movements in several US states, some which have appreciable levels of support. A 2014 poll showed that [58% of Alaskans favored a secession from the union](https://www.unz.com/anepigone/support-for-secession-by-state/). Will a US state agree to leave the union before end of 2030? The question resolves in the affirmative if any US state leave the union. Resolution details: @@ -11822,10 +11870,6 @@ The US federal government can forgive people's student loans through the [Public How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021? This question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government forgives in student loans during 2021, in billions of dollars, as determined by data from the US Government, or credible media reports. Right now, you can find how much the federal government forgives by retrieving data [here](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data), downloading the spreadsheets, and summing the two entries titled ""Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible PSLF application"" and ""Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible TEPSLF application*"". ",116,3 -"What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/","Metaculus","[]","The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent. -What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024? -This question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024. -",33,3 "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again. This question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. * ""military personnel"" here includes the Coast Guard. @@ -11950,7 +11994,7 @@ Related Questions: Will Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)? The question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason. The question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia. -",45,3 +",46,3 "Will any asteroid or comet have been mined in space for commercial purposes before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1662/will-any-asteroid-or-comet-have-been-mined-in-space-for-commercial-purposes-before-2030/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","A number of commercial ventures have been founded in the 21st century with the goal of [mining various asteroids and comets in the solar system for commercial purposes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asteroid_mining) There are a number of valuable resources that could in principle be harvested from these objects, including gold, iridium, silver, osmium, palladium, platinum, rhenium, rhodium, ruthenium and tungsten for transport back to Earth; iron, cobalt, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, aluminium, and titanium for space-based construction. Perhaps the most immediately useful resource may be water, which could be converted into hydrogen and oxygen to fuel spacecraft. Some identified asteroids are believed to be quite rich in minerals. Indeed, if one were to look up current prices on the London Metal Exchange for these resources and assume (quite wrongly, of course) that the price would hold up in the event that asteroid mining became practical and economical, there are many [individual asteroids whose value far exceeds 100 trillion US dollars.](http://www.asterank.com/) As of September 2016, there were 711 known asteroids with a computed value exceeding US$100 trillion. @@ -11978,12 +12022,6 @@ Will a US Supreme Court Justice be impeached and removed before 2030? The question resolves positively if any Supreme Court Justice is impeached and removed by the House and Senate before Jan 1st, 2030. An impeachment by just the House, overturned by the Senate, will not resolve the question positively. Nor will any vacancy by resignation, retirement, or death. ",71,3 -"What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/","Metaculus","[]","[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. -The Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. -This question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US? -The question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive). -Resolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press. -",148,3 "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) ! For this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) . Similar questions: @@ -12222,7 +12260,7 @@ Metaculus team should ask the AI: 1--Are you conscious? 2--Should the question ""Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?"" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? This question will resolve no sooner than the question ""[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)"". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question. -",100,3 +",101,3 "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[The Insurrection Act of 1807](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is a United States federal law that empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard under the following circumstances: --- when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state ([§ 251](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/10/251)), @@ -12392,15 +12430,6 @@ Resolution Criteria Resolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. ",44,3 -"Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.30000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life -longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by. -Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)? -An anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. -For the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. -This question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)). -Successful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator. -If no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously. -",77,3 "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Ahh, to build a space elevator. Wouldn't that be grand? We could move material into space at a fraction of the cost of conventional rockets. Space tourism would [boom](https://www.herox.com/crowdsourcing-news/137-going-up-the-case-for-a-space-elevator). We'd launch interplanetary missions. Oh happy day. [Futurism explains](https://futurism.com/why-space-elevators-are-the-future-of-space-travel/): According to [a NASA] study, a flexible and durable cable with a space station counterweight could serve as a viable space elevator. A mechanical “climber” — using magnetic levitation or rollers along the tether — would then carry many tons of equipment or people into orbit. Although such a project would cost in the tens of billions, it would eventually pay for itself by providing much cheaper space travel to a greatly expanded market. @@ -12442,14 +12471,6 @@ If a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-construct Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. In case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. ",227,3 -"What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/","Metaculus","[]","Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf). -[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames. -As of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). -An excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models. -What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? -This question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set. -Performance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. -",61,3 "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/","Metaculus","[]","Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture. When will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT? Define a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese. @@ -13016,11 +13037,6 @@ As some background, [Gerhard J. Woeginger maintains a list of claimed proofs of 5--1 said it would depend on the model. 6--22 offered no opinion. ",206,3 -"What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/","Metaculus","[]","[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)). -What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) ----Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. ----If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. -",246,3 "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/","Metaculus","[]","United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible. The [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars. [Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/). @@ -13028,6 +13044,11 @@ When will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon? This question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036. See also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/) ",122,3 +"What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/","Metaculus","[]","[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)). +What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD) +---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. +---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. +",250,3 "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.42000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","According to [Moore's law]( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/10_nanometer ), the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. This is mainly driven by the fact that the half-pitch of transistors halves every four years (reduces by about 30% every two years). The semi-conductor industry has been keeping up with Moore's law for 50 years now, even though the doubling rate got reduced from doubling every year to doubling every two years in 1975 (number of transistors on a chip doubled nearly every year from 1965-1975). Moore's law has driven much of the technological progress of the last half-century, with the most obvious technologies which owe their existence to Moore's law being the personal computer, the smartphone and the internet. Due to Moore's law's ambitious projections, there have been predictions of its imminent demise for decades. Yet, while an optimist might characterize these concerns as perennial and unfounded, there does seem to be a little more legitimate reason for concern now. Transistors with a half-pitch smaller than 7 nm will experience quantum tunneling and major technological advances might have to be made to create them. Even Intel admits that the doubling tine will increase from two to two and a half years, even though they expect Moore's law to continue indefinitely. We shall interpret Moore's law to have ended if no progress has been made miniaturizing transistors for 5 years, the end point being the point when the lack of progress started. @@ -13043,7 +13064,7 @@ For these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fissio For the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution). The deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution. Purchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as ""Yes"". -",272,3 +",273,3 "When will the first organ from a non-primate be successfully transplanted into a human?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3052/when-will-the-first-organ-from-a-non-primate-be-successfully-transplanted-into-a-human/","Metaculus","[]","The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency. A promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.) There are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts. @@ -13240,11 +13261,6 @@ Historical data is provided on BEA's National Accounts [archive](https://apps.be What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2020 Q4, in billions of $USD? Resolves based on the latest BEA [Personal Income and Outlays report](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) as of the question resolution date, titled ""Unemployment insurance"", using the seasonally-adjusted annualized figure for 2020 Q4. As of the July 2020 release, this row is on line 26 of Table 1. If no BEA estimates have been released by the question resolution date, this question resolves ambiguously. ",98,3 -"Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3875/will-at-least-9-of-the-12-states-hit-hardest-by-covid-19-in-2020-be-states-that-voted-for-trump-in-2016/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This question will resolve positive if at least 9 of the 12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 (as reported by the CDC) are among the states that voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election. -For purposes of this question, 30 states out of 50 are considered to have voted for Trump in the 2016 election, which is 60% or 7.2 out of 12. They are: -Alaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana,Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama (We won’t count the second congressional districft of Maine which may not have readily accessible health statistics). ([source](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election)) -This question resolves according to the best numbers published by the CDC as of 2021-03-15, as judged by Metaculus. -",537,3 "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/","Metaculus","[]","related question: ---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) Economic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder: @@ -13543,17 +13559,6 @@ The following situations do not qualify as expropriation: [1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine. [2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees. ",47,3 -"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. -On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts: -The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... -How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts. -In this question, we test one aspect of this fear: -By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021? -The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021. -Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: ----[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) ----[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) -",187,3 "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/","Metaculus","[]","On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July. This question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Resolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason. @@ -13580,6 +13585,17 @@ If does not resolve before Mar 14, 2027, it resolves as >Mar 14, 2027. If it' Resolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). By average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3. ",188,3 +"What will inflation be in the US in 2021?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/","Metaculus","[]","In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops. +On the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled ""I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming"". Some excerpts: +The sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021... +How bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts. +In this question, we test one aspect of this fear: +By what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021? +The question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021. +Other questions testing aspects of Caplan's post: +---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) +---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) +",189,3 "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/","Metaculus","[]","Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions. China has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. However, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. @@ -13707,7 +13723,7 @@ More recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelli This is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask: By end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? Resolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams. -",711,3 +",716,3 "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?","https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/","Metaculus","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.88,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (""Lock him up!""), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities. Donald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career. For him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last. diff --git a/data/metaculus-questions.json b/data/metaculus-questions.json index 4d9f5c4..bb03cdb 100644 --- a/data/metaculus-questions.json +++ b/data/metaculus-questions.json @@ -102,7 +102,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 211, + "numforecasts": 213, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -117,7 +117,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", @@ -127,29 +127,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -169,7 +169,7 @@ } ], "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 176, + "numforecasts": 181, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -179,29 +179,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 544, + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -219,47 +219,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 141, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/", @@ -301,6 +260,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-01T07:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 141, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n", + "numforecasts": 287, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/", @@ -357,21 +368,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", @@ -389,7 +385,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", @@ -428,32 +424,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", @@ -469,21 +439,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", @@ -501,7 +456,7 @@ } ], "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -567,18 +522,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", + "numforecasts": 239, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -597,18 +552,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -617,7 +583,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -626,6 +592,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", @@ -642,18 +623,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "numforecasts": 548, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" } }, { @@ -712,47 +704,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-09-01T01:58:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 39, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/", @@ -794,6 +745,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", @@ -809,32 +786,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", @@ -902,6 +853,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2033-01-20T20:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/", @@ -928,47 +894,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", @@ -996,29 +921,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", + "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "options": [], + "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1048,29 +962,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", + "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 287, + "options": [], + "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", + "numforecasts": 248, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1104,48 +1037,70 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", + "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/", + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "numforecasts": 132, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1164,18 +1119,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", + "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -1205,44 +1175,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/", + "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", + "numforecasts": 74, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 50, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" } }, { @@ -1271,43 +1241,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 335, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -1362,18 +1302,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", + "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1403,18 +1354,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 292, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1449,7 +1411,7 @@ } ], "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -1459,89 +1421,63 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 384, + "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/", + "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n", - "numforecasts": 294, + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z" + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n", - "numforecasts": 109, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 510, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1571,18 +1507,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1591,7 +1527,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -1601,44 +1537,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", - "numforecasts": 385, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", + "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" } }, { @@ -1668,18 +1578,48 @@ } }, { - "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", + "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 337, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n", + "numforecasts": 294, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n", + "numforecasts": 109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1709,18 +1649,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", + "numforecasts": 510, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1730,17 +1681,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2634, + "numforecasts": 2663, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", @@ -1750,18 +1701,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", + "numforecasts": 385, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-12T19:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", + "numforecasts": 52, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -1781,7 +1773,7 @@ } ], "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", @@ -1791,48 +1783,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", + "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 219, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-12T19:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1851,18 +1828,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 143, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" } }, { @@ -1892,29 +1869,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -1944,18 +1936,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", + "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" } }, { @@ -1975,7 +1978,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -1985,29 +1988,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", + "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 164, + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 254, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2025,21 +2032,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -2067,18 +2059,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2096,21 +2088,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", @@ -2133,17 +2110,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", @@ -2158,7 +2135,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", @@ -2193,21 +2170,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", @@ -2225,7 +2187,7 @@ } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", @@ -2235,18 +2197,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2265,29 +2227,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "options": [], + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" } }, { @@ -2305,32 +2256,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/", @@ -2346,6 +2271,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-02-20T07:38:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", @@ -2373,29 +2313,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22999999999999998, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1096, + "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2404,7 +2344,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -2413,6 +2353,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", @@ -2439,21 +2394,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", @@ -2486,7 +2426,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, + "numforecasts": 148, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", @@ -2496,44 +2436,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1306, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2551,13 +2465,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -2582,33 +2511,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2617,7 +2542,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -2626,47 +2551,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", @@ -2682,13 +2566,43 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-04-30T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 967, + "numforecasts": 983, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -2723,21 +2637,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", @@ -2825,29 +2724,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2881,18 +2780,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", + "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -2936,21 +2835,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 321, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -2977,13 +2861,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-02T15:03:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 321, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -2992,84 +2891,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-10-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "numforecasts": 135, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n", - "numforecasts": 165, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", @@ -3097,18 +2918,81 @@ } }, { - "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", + "title": "Will Randell Mills's Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics Be Taken Seriously?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3216/will-randell-millss-grand-unified-theory-of-classical-physics-be-taken-seriously/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "This will be \"True\" if, by 2030, papers by Randell Mills containing the word \"hydrino\", are cited by at least 10 papers published after 2019, in journals in the [Science Citations Index](https://mjl.clarivate.com/home?PC=K), also containing the word \"hydrino\". The Randell Mills papers being cited by the Science Citations Index journal papers need not be in such journals.\nThe conjunction of Randell Mills with the word \"hydrino\" is taken as implying that Mills's [Grand Unified Theory of Classical Physics](https://brilliantlightpower.com/book-download-and-streaming/) is being taken seriously by said paper in this time frame.\n", + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-12T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2020-11-30T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T18:01:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", + "numforecasts": 135, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3164,29 +3048,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", + "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "options": [], + "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3282,6 +3155,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", + "numforecasts": 300, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/", @@ -3297,21 +3185,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", - "numforecasts": 299, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", @@ -3319,17 +3192,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1131, + "numforecasts": 1139, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -3338,21 +3211,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -3398,62 +3256,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2046-07-11T18:58:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 439, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", @@ -3480,6 +3282,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-05-02T21:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", + "numforecasts": 133, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", @@ -3506,6 +3323,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", + "numforecasts": 91, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", @@ -3522,18 +3354,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3551,6 +3398,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", @@ -3584,17 +3446,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "numforecasts": 178, + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -3603,36 +3465,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", - "numforecasts": 199, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/", @@ -3649,18 +3481,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", + "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", + "numforecasts": 204, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3669,7 +3501,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -3739,18 +3571,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", + "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", + "numforecasts": 121, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -3784,18 +3627,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -3830,7 +3673,7 @@ } ], "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 152, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", @@ -3839,6 +3682,73 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-03-23T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", + "numforecasts": 379, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", @@ -3892,53 +3802,23 @@ } }, { - "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 379, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 64, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -3947,21 +3827,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6663/will-miri-employ-researchers-in-2030/", @@ -3969,17 +3834,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", @@ -4004,12 +3869,38 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 192, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -4019,55 +3910,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", - "numforecasts": 121, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -4102,7 +3956,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n", - "numforecasts": 158, + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", @@ -4111,6 +3965,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 29, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 240, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -4163,6 +4069,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-30T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", + "numforecasts": 76, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", @@ -4189,47 +4110,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 466, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n", - "numforecasts": 130, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", @@ -4257,29 +4137,55 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/", + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 519, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n", + "numforecasts": 130, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z" } }, { @@ -4309,29 +4215,96 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 450, + "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", + "numforecasts": 230, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", + "numforecasts": 194, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", + "numforecasts": 15, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" } }, { @@ -4340,7 +4313,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 117, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -4375,21 +4348,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 14, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", @@ -4405,21 +4363,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", @@ -4441,7 +4384,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -4450,13 +4393,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-03-14T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -4466,33 +4424,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", - "numforecasts": 167, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" } }, { @@ -4563,29 +4506,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "options": [], + "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4615,18 +4547,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", + "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 195, + "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4651,17 +4624,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 140, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -4671,44 +4644,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", - "numforecasts": 156, + "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", - "numforecasts": 97, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -4728,7 +4716,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 321, + "numforecasts": 322, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", @@ -4737,6 +4725,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", @@ -4778,21 +4792,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", @@ -4819,21 +4818,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", @@ -4860,6 +4844,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", @@ -4886,62 +4885,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 293, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", @@ -4983,32 +4926,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 121, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", @@ -5031,17 +4948,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 586, + "numforecasts": 587, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -5056,7 +4973,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 114, + "numforecasts": 115, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -5066,44 +4983,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", + "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5112,7 +5029,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 122, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -5137,44 +5054,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 191, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", + "numforecasts": 14, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" } }, { @@ -5192,21 +5094,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", @@ -5240,17 +5127,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 448, + "numforecasts": 475, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -5260,33 +5147,59 @@ } }, { - "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", + "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", - "numforecasts": 224, + "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 186, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" } }, { @@ -5304,21 +5217,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T12:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", @@ -5360,32 +5258,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 504, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", @@ -5417,29 +5289,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", + "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 508, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5483,6 +5370,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/", @@ -5498,32 +5411,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", @@ -5565,6 +5452,99 @@ "resolve_time": "2046-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", + "numforecasts": 171, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", + "numforecasts": 452, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 192, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 17, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", @@ -5592,70 +5572,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 189, + "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 440, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 17, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" } }, { @@ -5684,21 +5623,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/", @@ -5778,81 +5702,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", + "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 519, + "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", + "numforecasts": 194, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" } }, { - "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 229, + "options": [], + "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -5881,6 +5768,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/", @@ -5898,7 +5811,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n", - "numforecasts": 775, + "numforecasts": 777, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -5928,7 +5841,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 86, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -5937,39 +5850,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "numforecasts": 194, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -5979,18 +5866,33 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6009,29 +5911,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 870, + "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 399, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6075,6 +5992,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2056-01-01T00:58:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", + "numforecasts": 125, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", @@ -6090,6 +6022,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2026-03-01T22:21:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", + "numforecasts": 225, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", @@ -6105,32 +6067,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-02T19:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", @@ -6152,7 +6088,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -6161,6 +6097,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/", @@ -6176,6 +6127,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", + "numforecasts": 206, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/", @@ -6208,7 +6174,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -6218,18 +6184,44 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", + "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", + "numforecasts": 297, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 574, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6274,48 +6266,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" - } - }, - { - "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6334,29 +6307,29 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", + "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n", + "numforecasts": 183, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -6374,32 +6347,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-06-02T02:15:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n", - "numforecasts": 181, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", @@ -6441,6 +6388,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2081-01-31T17:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", @@ -6467,21 +6429,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will PHP die?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", @@ -6497,6 +6444,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", @@ -6512,6 +6474,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/", @@ -6544,7 +6536,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 187, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -6553,6 +6545,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-06T07:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 468, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", @@ -6568,6 +6575,66 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", + "numforecasts": 168, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n", + "numforecasts": 153, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", + "numforecasts": 162, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", @@ -6598,6 +6665,58 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 82, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1312, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/", @@ -6613,6 +6732,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/", @@ -6645,7 +6779,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 11, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -6654,13 +6788,28 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 149, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -6669,13 +6818,39 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "numforecasts": 589, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -6684,6 +6859,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-06-01T19:19:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", + "numforecasts": 196, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/", @@ -6710,6 +6900,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T22:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/", @@ -6740,6 +6945,73 @@ "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", + "numforecasts": 871, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/", @@ -6781,6 +7053,84 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", + "numforecasts": 62, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1108, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -6822,6 +7172,36 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + } + }, + { + "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/", @@ -6951,7 +7331,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -6966,7 +7346,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -6981,7 +7361,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -6997,17 +7377,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -7037,7 +7417,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7145,7 +7525,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -7221,6 +7601,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/", @@ -7238,7 +7633,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -7247,21 +7642,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-01-15T15:54:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", @@ -7406,7 +7786,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 115, + "numforecasts": 117, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -7611,7 +7991,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7652,7 +8032,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", - "numforecasts": 219, + "numforecasts": 220, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -7667,7 +8047,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).\nAs of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.\nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", @@ -7708,7 +8088,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -7723,7 +8103,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7738,7 +8118,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -7794,7 +8174,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z", @@ -7917,7 +8297,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 348, + "numforecasts": 353, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -7962,7 +8342,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -8100,7 +8480,7 @@ } ], "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 1105, + "numforecasts": 1106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -8157,17 +8537,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -8290,7 +8670,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 691, + "numforecasts": 705, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -8380,7 +8760,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -8421,7 +8801,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -8623,7 +9003,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -8858,7 +9238,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 429, + "numforecasts": 430, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -8873,7 +9253,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -8945,17 +9325,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 169, + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -9067,7 +9447,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. As of 1 March 2021 there are 46,738 people who are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html) that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials [may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/209520) in response to a predicted increase or decrease in expected number of hospitalizations.\nA plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/numberOfNewHospitlizations.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). \nData sources and more information:\n---[Department of Health and Human Service’s report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) \n---[COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---The CDC’s [Hospitalization forecasts website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/hospitalizations-forecasts.html) \n---[The Coronavirus Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) website](https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service’s [report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) for the dates from 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-03-21 to 2021-03-27. Daily updates are [provided by the Department of Health and Human Services](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state). The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github [data repository](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -9123,7 +9503,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", - "numforecasts": 282, + "numforecasts": 283, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", @@ -9235,7 +9615,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -9362,7 +9742,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9403,7 +9783,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9526,7 +9906,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -9550,32 +9930,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/", @@ -9664,7 +10018,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 288, + "numforecasts": 289, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -9720,7 +10074,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -9781,17 +10135,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", @@ -9955,7 +10309,7 @@ } ], "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", - "numforecasts": 421, + "numforecasts": 423, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -10037,7 +10391,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 380, + "numforecasts": 381, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -10061,21 +10415,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 679, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", @@ -10106,6 +10445,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 680, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/", @@ -10121,32 +10475,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2074-12-31T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 126, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/", @@ -10490,6 +10818,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 96, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", @@ -10507,7 +10850,7 @@ } ], "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 420, + "numforecasts": 421, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", @@ -10516,21 +10859,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 96, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-28T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/", @@ -10538,17 +10866,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 205, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -10563,7 +10891,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", - "numforecasts": 294, + "numforecasts": 295, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -10660,7 +10988,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 358, + "numforecasts": 360, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -10691,17 +11019,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 246, + "numforecasts": 249, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -10869,7 +11197,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -10937,17 +11265,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -10973,7 +11301,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 86, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -11049,32 +11377,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2049-12-10T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 571, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/", @@ -11137,7 +11439,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 156, + "numforecasts": 157, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -11187,6 +11489,32 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 461, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", @@ -11214,29 +11542,18 @@ } }, { - "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", + "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 460, + "options": [], + "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, { @@ -11256,7 +11573,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 125, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -11265,21 +11582,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T16:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/", @@ -11425,17 +11727,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 139, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -11450,7 +11752,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose.\nAs of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. \nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 2 Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n8 March edit: on 8 March the CDC's vaccine tracker at [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vac…](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) changed the “receiving 2 doses” figure to \"fully vaccinated” to account for people who receive one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which has been authorized as a single-dose regimen (by contrast, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are authorized as two-dose vaccines). This question will resolve on the basis of the new \"fully vaccinated\" figure reported by the CDC.\n", - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", @@ -11466,17 +11768,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -11610,7 +11912,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -11655,7 +11957,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -12452,7 +12754,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -12491,28 +12793,13 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-05-31T23:04:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -12521,6 +12808,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/", @@ -12871,17 +13173,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", - "numforecasts": 139, + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -12890,32 +13192,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/", @@ -12989,7 +13265,7 @@ } ], "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 179, + "numforecasts": 182, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", @@ -13030,7 +13306,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n", - "numforecasts": 210, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -13164,7 +13440,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 132, + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -13180,17 +13456,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", @@ -13324,7 +13600,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -13436,7 +13712,7 @@ } ], "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -13460,32 +13736,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T15:11:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 582, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/", @@ -13809,7 +14059,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\na new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\nThe fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]\nReturns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.\nIf by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T07:00:00Z", @@ -13865,7 +14115,7 @@ } ], "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 78, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -13977,7 +14227,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -14130,7 +14380,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -14616,6 +14866,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n", + "numforecasts": 194, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/", @@ -14693,7 +14958,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", - "numforecasts": 502, + "numforecasts": 503, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", @@ -15010,7 +15275,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -15578,17 +15843,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 542, + "numforecasts": 556, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -16656,7 +16921,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -16917,7 +17182,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 194, + "numforecasts": 195, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -16933,17 +17198,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -17010,7 +17275,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 275, + "numforecasts": 276, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -17905,7 +18170,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", - "numforecasts": 270, + "numforecasts": 272, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", @@ -17914,21 +18179,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", - "numforecasts": 58, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", @@ -18455,21 +18705,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-05-26T10:05:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/", @@ -18977,17 +19212,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5082, + "numforecasts": 5084, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -19190,21 +19425,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", @@ -19763,7 +19983,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z", @@ -19778,7 +19998,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -19787,6 +20007,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n", + "numforecasts": 89, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/", @@ -19813,21 +20048,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n", - "numforecasts": 89, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/", @@ -21646,7 +21866,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 115, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -22019,7 +22239,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -22403,7 +22623,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.\nMany electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. \n[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): \nWhile most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) \n---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z", @@ -22412,21 +22632,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T20:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", - "numforecasts": 229, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/", @@ -22453,6 +22658,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", + "numforecasts": 229, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/", @@ -22468,32 +22688,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-12-31T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/", @@ -22733,6 +22927,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n", + "numforecasts": 202, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/", @@ -22748,21 +22957,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T20:10:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 199, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/", @@ -23345,6 +23539,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/", @@ -23362,7 +23571,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", - "numforecasts": 423, + "numforecasts": 425, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z", @@ -23371,21 +23580,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2060-01-01T00:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/", @@ -23422,7 +23616,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -23431,6 +23625,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 95, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/", @@ -23457,21 +23666,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T22:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 95, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/", @@ -23558,32 +23752,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", @@ -23640,21 +23808,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/", @@ -23676,7 +23829,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -23741,21 +23894,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/", @@ -24012,7 +24150,7 @@ } ], "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -24099,21 +24237,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n", - "numforecasts": 148, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/", @@ -24601,7 +24724,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n", - "numforecasts": 100, + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -24950,32 +25073,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:14:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/", @@ -25058,21 +25155,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", @@ -25935,21 +26017,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 246, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/", @@ -25965,6 +26032,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:59:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 250, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/", @@ -26008,7 +26090,7 @@ } ], "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 272, + "numforecasts": 273, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -26453,32 +26535,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2021-04-01T06:59:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3875/will-at-least-9-of-the-12-states-hit-hardest-by-covid-19-in-2020-be-states-that-voted-for-trump-in-2016/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "This question will resolve positive if at least 9 of the 12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 (as reported by the CDC) are among the states that voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election.\nFor purposes of this question, 30 states out of 50 are considered to have voted for Trump in the 2016 election, which is 60% or 7.2 out of 12. They are: \nAlaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana,Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama (We won’t count the second congressional districft of Maine which may not have readily accessible health statistics). ([source](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election))\nThis question resolves according to the best numbers published by the CDC as of 2021-03-15, as judged by Metaculus.\n", - "numforecasts": 537, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-11-15T03:14:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-15T02:15:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/", @@ -27146,21 +27202,6 @@ "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" } }, - { - "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 187, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" - } - }, { "title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/", @@ -27206,6 +27247,21 @@ "resolve_time": "2030-12-30T15:00:00Z" } }, + { + "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", + "numforecasts": 189, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" + } + }, { "title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/", @@ -27432,7 +27488,7 @@ } ], "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n", - "numforecasts": 711, + "numforecasts": 716, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json index 2dcc3ea..b56f99d 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.json +++ b/data/metaforecasts.json @@ -403,27 +403,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1975862068965517, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8024137931034483, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 87, - "numforecasters": 66, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How frequently do you think in words?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -445,6 +424,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1975862068965517, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8024137931034483, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasters": 66, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How good is your memory?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -571,27 +571,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3156060606060606, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6843939393939393, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 66, - "numforecasters": 52, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -613,6 +592,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3156060606060606, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6843939393939393, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasters": 52, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -844,6 +844,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38967741935483874, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6103225806451613, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -865,6 +886,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasters": 29, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -908,44 +950,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.5493617021276596, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "probability": 0.45063829787234044, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 40, - "numforecasters": 29, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38967741935483874, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6103225806451613, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 31, - "numforecasters": 29, + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 28, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -970,27 +991,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5493617021276596, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45063829787234044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 28, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1054,6 +1054,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.002307692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9976923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1096,6 +1117,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "...be an environmental disaster.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2479310344827586, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7520689655172415, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 26, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Trump wins Nobel", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1118,23 +1160,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.002307692307692308, + "probability": 0.018846153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9976923076923077, + "probability": 0.9811538461538462, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 26, + "numforecasters": 25, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -1159,27 +1201,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.018846153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9811538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 25, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1202,23 +1223,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "...be an environmental disaster.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2637037037037037, + "probability": 0.09692307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7362962962962962, + "probability": 0.9030769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 27, - "numforecasters": 24, + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 23, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -1243,27 +1264,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09692307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9030769230769231, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1285,27 +1285,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2439285714285714, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7560714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 28, - "numforecasters": 23, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1328,22 +1307,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6226923076923077, + "probability": 0.2439285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37730769230769234, + "probability": 0.7560714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasters": 23, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.19347826086956524, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8065217391304348, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1391,22 +1391,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19347826086956524, + "probability": 0.6226923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8065217391304348, + "probability": 0.37730769230769234, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 22, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1453,27 +1453,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20482758620689656, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7951724137931034, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 29, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1495,48 +1474,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3745833333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6254166666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7019047619047619, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2980952380952381, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1558,27 +1495,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5815384615384616, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.41846153846153844, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 39, - "numforecasters": 21, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1600,6 +1516,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7019047619047619, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2980952380952381, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1621,6 +1558,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3745833333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6254166666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20482758620689656, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7951724137931034, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5815384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.41846153846153844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasters": 21, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1642,132 +1642,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11681818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8831818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3109375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6890625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21636363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7836363636363637, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34127659574468083, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6587234042553192, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 47, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2782857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7217142857142858, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 35, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07454545454545454, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9254545454545454, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1789,27 +1663,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8838095238095238, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11619047619047618, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 20, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1832,23 +1685,191 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0695, + "probability": 0.21636363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9305, + "probability": 0.7836363636363637, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3109375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6890625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2782857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7217142857142858, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 35, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8142857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.18571428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34127659574468083, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6587234042553192, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07454545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9254545454545454, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11681818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8831818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 20, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Google will survive for 15 more years", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8838095238095238, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.11619047619047618, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 20, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -1874,43 +1895,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.0695, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.9305, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13249999999999995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -1936,6 +1936,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4704761904761905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5295238095238095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 19, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -1958,18 +1979,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "United States will invade Australia and take over", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4704761904761905, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5295238095238095, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2000,22 +2021,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7243478260869566, + "probability": 0.542, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2756521739130434, + "probability": 0.45799999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2062,27 +2083,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1705, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8295, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 19, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2105,43 +2105,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8088888888888889, + "probability": 0.7243478260869566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.19111111111111112, + "probability": 0.2756521739130434, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 23, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.542, + "probability": 0.8675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45799999999999996, + "probability": 0.13249999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 19, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2167,6 +2167,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.648, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.352, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2188,6 +2209,90 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8340740740740741, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16592592592592592, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.13080000000000003, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 18, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2209,27 +2314,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3281481481481482, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6718518518518518, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 27, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2251,27 +2335,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.648, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.352, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 40, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2315,39 +2378,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20TAI%20be%20created%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020?%20(Inside-view)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8692, + "probability": 0.3281481481481482, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13080000000000003, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 18, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20hypothetical,%20will%20an%20AI-induced%20point%20of%20no%20return%20happen%20by%20end%20of%202020?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8340740740740741, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16592592592592592, + "probability": 0.6718518518518518, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2357,44 +2399,170 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026923076923077, + "probability": 0.017222222222222222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973076923076923, + "probability": 0.9827777777777778, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 18, + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03318181818181818, + "probability": 0.2161904761904762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9668181818181818, + "probability": 0.7838095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 18, + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6933333333333332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30666666666666675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.018000000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.982, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6905, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8395238095238095, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.16047619047619055, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 21, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasters": 17, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12789473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8721052631578947, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 17, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -2440,48 +2608,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.009444444444444445, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9905555555555555, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8395238095238095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16047619047619055, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2504,39 +2630,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "aliens invade earth in 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3095, + "probability": 0.009444444444444445, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6905, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.017222222222222222, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9827777777777778, + "probability": 0.9905555555555555, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2545,111 +2650,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6933333333333332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30666666666666675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12789473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8721052631578947, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2161904761904762, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7838095238095237, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 21, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.018000000000000002, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.982, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 23, - "numforecasters": 17, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2671,6 +2671,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4288888888888889, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5711111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 16, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2692,27 +2734,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.049, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.951, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -2777,43 +2798,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04125, + "probability": 0.19105263157894736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95875, + "probability": 0.8089473684210526, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "US presidents term limits abolished", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02235294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9776470588235294, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -2840,254 +2840,44 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4288888888888889, + "probability": 0.049, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5711111111111111, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19105263157894736, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8089473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 16, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43473684210526314, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5652631578947369, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5852941176470589, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7655, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.23450000000000004, + "probability": 0.951, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 20, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "US presidents term limits abolished", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "probability": 0.02235294117647059, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "probability": 0.9776470588235294, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7811764705882354, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21882352941176464, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9353333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06466666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1448, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8552, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.118125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.881875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.294375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.705625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6647058823529411, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33529411764705885, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 15, + "numforecasters": 16, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -3112,27 +2902,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5936, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4064, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 15, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3155,18 +2924,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "probability": 0.5936, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "probability": 0.4064, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5852941176470589, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3176,18 +2966,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.926875, + "probability": 0.6647058823529411, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.073125, + "probability": 0.33529411764705885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.294375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.705625, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3217,6 +3028,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7811764705882354, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21882352941176464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7655, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.23450000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 20, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.118125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.881875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3238,6 +3112,237 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5517647058823529, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44823529411764707, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9353333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.06466666666666665, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.03705882352941177, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9629411764705882, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43473684210526314, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5652631578947369, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8552, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.926875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.073125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 15, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09466666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9053333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.111875, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.888125, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3281,60 +3386,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09823529411764706, + "probability": 0.47388888888888886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9017647058823529, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 17, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3026315789473684, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6973684210526316, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "probability": 0.5261111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3344,81 +3407,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09466666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9053333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8220000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17799999999999994, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3449,39 +3449,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11733333333333333, + "probability": 0.07857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8826666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08785714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9121428571428571, + "probability": 0.9214285714285715, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3491,43 +3470,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.3026315789473684, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.6973684210526316, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 14, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.111875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.888125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3553,6 +3511,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08785714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9121428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 14, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -3575,60 +3554,60 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17394444444444446, + "probability": 0.09823529411764706, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8260555555555555, + "probability": 0.9017647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.47388888888888886, + "probability": 0.8220000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5261111111111112, + "probability": 0.17799999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07857142857142857, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9214285714285715, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3638,39 +3617,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "10 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "probability": 0.11733333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "probability": 0.8826666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 36, - "numforecasters": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 14, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "probability": 0.2978571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48642857142857143, + "probability": 0.7021428571428572, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3680,18 +3659,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1469230769230769, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8530769230769231, + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3701,106 +3680,43 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "ETI is AGI", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "probability": 0.04923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "probability": 0.9507692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06625, + "probability": 0.106875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.93375, + "probability": 0.893125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 32, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 18, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40842105263157896, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.591578947368421, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7389473684210526, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2610526315789474, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -3827,102 +3743,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44153846153846155, + "probability": 0.853125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5584615384615385, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4026666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5973333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11076923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8892307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9466666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.320625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6793750000000001, + "probability": 0.14687499999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3932,39 +3764,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3375, + "probability": 0.14615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.040769230769230766, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "probability": 0.8538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3995,39 +3806,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2978571428571428, + "probability": 0.320625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7021428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.853125, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14687499999999998, + "probability": 0.6793750000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4057,6 +3847,132 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.040769230769230766, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7389473684210526, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2610526315789474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "ETI is AGI", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8461111111111111, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.15388888888888885, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40842105263157896, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.591578947368421, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 18, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5135714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4100,18 +4016,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.1469230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "probability": 0.8530769230769231, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4121,22 +4037,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.045, + "probability": 0.44153846153846155, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.955, + "probability": 0.5584615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4162,27 +4078,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04923076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9507692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4226,39 +4121,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14615384615384616, + "probability": 0.045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.106875, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.893125, + "probability": 0.955, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4268,43 +4142,148 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Trump dies of COVID-19", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1825, + "probability": 0.06625, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8175, + "probability": 0.93375, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, + "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasters": 13, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.3375, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.6625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4026666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5973333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11076923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8892307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "10 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9158333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9466666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4330,6 +4309,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14166666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8583333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4351,27 +4351,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6653846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33461538461538465, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4393,69 +4372,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9535714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.175, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.825, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4478,18 +4394,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013076923076923076, + "probability": 0.6653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9869230769230769, + "probability": 0.33461538461538465, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4499,22 +4415,85 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "100 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "probability": 0.3707692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "probability": 0.6292307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.696923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.303076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5107142857142857, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4892857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.304, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.696, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4541,18 +4520,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03833333333333334, + "probability": 0.6083333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9616666666666667, + "probability": 0.3916666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4583,39 +4562,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3707692307692308, + "probability": 0.03833333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6292307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.9616666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4625,18 +4583,144 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15928571428571428, + "probability": 0.3358333333333334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8407142857142857, + "probability": 0.6641666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1825, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9235714285714286, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6315384615384615, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3684615384615385, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasters": 13, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.013076923076923076, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9869230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.825, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4667,18 +4751,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14166666666666666, + "probability": 0.7892307692307692, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8583333333333334, + "probability": 0.21076923076923082, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4687,6 +4792,48 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04642857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9535714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "100 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.007931034482758621, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9920689655172413, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasters": 12, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4750,27 +4897,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6315384615384615, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3684615384615385, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 26, - "numforecasters": 13, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4793,43 +4919,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.696923076923077, + "probability": 0.15928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.303076923076923, + "probability": 0.8407142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.696, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -4855,90 +4960,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6083333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3916666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07642857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9235714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7892307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21076923076923082, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5107142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4892857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -4960,405 +4981,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3358333333333334, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6641666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 12, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4753846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5246153846153846, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6481818181818181, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.3518181818181819, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2475, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7525, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "50 million", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.016470588235294115, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9835294117647059, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 34, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20727272727272728, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7927272727272727, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6136363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10181818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8981818181818182, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10285714285714287, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8971428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9325, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.0675, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33090909090909093, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6690909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.332, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6679999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 15, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2888, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7112, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 25, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6778571428571429, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32214285714285706, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5557142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4442857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45692307692307693, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.543076923076923, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44083333333333335, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5591666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5381,186 +5003,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "probability": 0.2475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5918181818181818, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 22, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.20384615384615384, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7961538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5269230769230769, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47307692307692306, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10785714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8921428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "'President Mike Pence'", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.140625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.859375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4314285714285715, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26272727272727275, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7372727272727273, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7516666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2483333333333333, + "probability": 0.7525, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5591,18 +5045,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6866666666666668, + "probability": 0.10785714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "probability": 0.8921428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8366666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5611,6 +5086,90 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.332, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6679999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2888, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7112, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4081818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5918181818181818, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 22, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5632,6 +5191,69 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26272727272727275, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7372727272727273, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9458333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6592857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.34071428571428575, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5653,6 +5275,174 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20727272727272728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7927272727272727, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4753846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5246153846153846, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.44083333333333335, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5591666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4153846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5846153846153845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5621428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43785714285714283, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10181818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8981818181818182, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4592307692307692, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5407692307692308, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45692307692307693, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.543076923076923, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -5696,18 +5486,186 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "probability": 0.024166666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "probability": 0.9758333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.40909090909090906, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10285714285714287, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8971428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump will run for president in 2024", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.20384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7961538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5269230769230769, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47307692307692306, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6866666666666668, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.31333333333333324, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4314285714285715, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5738,123 +5696,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05416666666666667, + "probability": 0.31636363636363635, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9458333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4153846153846154, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5621428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43785714285714283, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4592307692307692, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5407692307692308, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.40909090909090906, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5909090909090909, + "probability": 0.6836363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -5863,153 +5716,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6592857142857143, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.34071428571428575, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8366666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03538461538461538, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9646153846153847, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.29083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7091666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31384615384615383, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6861538461538461, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45307692307692304, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.546923076923077, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6031,27 +5737,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31636363636363635, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6836363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 11, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6074,22 +5759,22 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.024166666666666666, + "probability": 0.6778571428571429, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9758333333333333, + "probability": 0.32214285714285706, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -6116,81 +5801,333 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "probability": 0.5557142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "probability": 0.4442857142857143, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.29083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7091666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33090909090909093, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.57, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, + "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "probability": 0.31384615384615383, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "probability": 0.6861538461538461, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, + "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24600000000000002, + "probability": 0.03538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.754, + "probability": 0.9646153846153847, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.10916666666666666, + "probability": 0.45307692307692304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8908333333333334, + "probability": 0.546923076923077, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9325, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.0675, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "'President Mike Pence'", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.140625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.859375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38636363636363635, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6136363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2366666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7633333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7516666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2483333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "50 million", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.016470588235294115, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9835294117647059, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6481818181818181, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.3518181818181819, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 11, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7791666666666667, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6220,342 +6157,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13142857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8685714285714285, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.995, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27785714285714286, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7221428571428572, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.467, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5329999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.34375, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65625, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 16, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.261, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.739, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8691666666666666, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.309, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6910000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.013636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9863636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.750909090909091, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24909090909090903, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2963636363636364, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.44166666666666665, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5583333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22083333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7791666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6036363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39636363636363636, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.204, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.796, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6577,6 +6178,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5690909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4309090909090909, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6598,6 +6220,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.042, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.958, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6620,18 +6263,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17300000000000001, + "probability": 0.217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.827, + "probability": 0.783, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6661,6 +6304,27 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.261, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.739, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6703,90 +6367,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39454545454545453, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6054545454545455, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09571428571428571, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9042857142857142, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 14, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.158, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.842, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.789, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21099999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -6809,39 +6389,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.6036363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3463636363636363, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6536363636363637, + "probability": 0.39636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6872,18 +6431,186 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.217, + "probability": 0.27785714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.783, + "probability": 0.7221428571428572, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.34375, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65625, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.467, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5329999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13083333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8691666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.10916666666666666, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8908333333333334, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.13142857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8685714285714285, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.309, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6910000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6914,60 +6641,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5690909090909091, + "probability": 0.44166666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4309090909090909, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 11, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7709999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2290000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.155, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.845, + "probability": 0.5583333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6977,18 +6662,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12090909090909091, + "probability": 0.39454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8790909090909091, + "probability": 0.6054545454545455, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -6998,81 +6683,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", "platform": "Elicit", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "probability": 0.2963636363636364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7361538461538462, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 13, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.198, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.802, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7066666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29333333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5272727272727272, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4727272727272728, + "probability": 0.7036363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -7081,48 +6703,6 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.042, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.958, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 10, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", - "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", - "platform": "Elicit", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07416666666666667, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9258333333333333, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": 12, - "numforecasters": 10, - "stars": 1, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7165,6 +6745,153 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "“China will break apart by 2030”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.24600000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.754, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11461538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8853846153846154, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07416666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9258333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.013636363636363636, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9863636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.158, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.155, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.845, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US", "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", @@ -7186,6 +6913,279 @@ "stars": 1, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17300000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.827, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.789, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21099999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.750909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.24909090909090903, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7709999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.2290000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.005, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3463636363636363, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6536363636363637, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5272727272727272, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4727272727272728, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.204, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.796, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12090909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8790909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26384615384615384, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7361538461538462, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.09571428571428571, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9042857142857142, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.198, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.802, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021", + "url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0", + "platform": "Elicit", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7066666666666667, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29333333333333333, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasters": 10, + "stars": 1, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released", "url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/0104d8e8-07e4-464b-8b32-74ef22b49f21/m/0926981c-1cc8-4e21-a3e4-865a3c544e67", @@ -8577,7 +8577,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 211, + "numforecasts": 213, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", @@ -8593,7 +8593,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", @@ -8604,29 +8604,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "numforecasts": 94, + "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8647,7 +8647,7 @@ } ], "description": "China's [Tianwen-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tianwen-1) mission is expected to launch in late July of 2020. It consists of an orbiter, lander and rover. This question asks:\n\"Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?\"\nThe question resolves positive if the rover lands successfully and is able to travel at least 30 meters on the surface of Mars after landing and will resolve positive based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question will resolve negatively if a mission identified as Tianwen-1 fails for any reason (explodes at launch, fails to survive descent to Mars surface, unable to establish communication, rover does not travel at least 30 meters and is unable to move further) based off of credible media reporting that this has happened.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no mission identified as Tianwen-1 attempts to launch before December 31st, 2023.\n", - "numforecasts": 176, + "numforecasts": 181, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -8658,29 +8658,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "numforecasts": 544, + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "numforecasts": 100, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -8700,49 +8700,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", - "numforecasts": 141, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will US poverty be higher in November 2021 than it was in November 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6295/increase-in-us-poverty-from-2020-to-2021/", @@ -8786,6 +8743,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Vitamin D has a history of [large scale studies](https://www.sciencealert.com/largest-ever-clinical-study-on-vitamin-d-shows-we-re-wrong-about-a-crucial-benefit) pointing both to and away from health benefits, and many western countries [already recommend](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) supplementing Vitamin D during winter months. An extensive summary of the evidence for Vitamin D’s various claimed health effects can be found [here](https://examine.com/supplements/vitamin-d/).\nRecently, some evidence has emerged which suggests that Vitamin D may have a protective effect against coronavirus. As Vitamin D supplementation is widely regarded as very safe, and Vitamin D pills are cheap, this has led many people to start taking Vitamin D as a preventative measure. A summary of the case for the protective effect of Vitamin D against Coronavirus is available [here](https://medium.com/microbial-instincts/the-first-clinical-trial-to-support-vitamin-d-therapy-for-covid-19-906a9d907468). More discussion is available [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tYGWPdhgaCnKKsS8p/covid-9-10-vitamin-d).\nThis question asks:\nWill the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?\nThis question resolves positively if, before the end of the coronavirus pandemic, official guidance from the UK's National Health Service states:\n---That healthy adults should be regularly taking a Vitamin D supplement. \nAnd:\n---That a benefit of such supplementation is the likely protective effect of Vitamin D against coronavirus. \nThe NHS [already recommends](https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/vitamins-and-minerals/vitamin-d/) Vitamin D supplementation during winter for people who do not spend much time outside. This is not sufficient for resolution as the only mention of coronavirus is to say:\nThere have been some news reports about vitamin D reducing the risk of coronavirus. However, there is currently not enough evidence to support this.\nThe end of the coronavirus pandemic is considered to be the end of the first week in which total [global daily deaths from coronavirus](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-deaths#what-is-the-daily-number-of-confirmed-deaths) are below 250. \n", + "numforecasts": 141, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-28T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a new amendment to the US Constitution be ratified by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3616/will-a-new-amendment-to-the-us-constitution-be-ratified-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The US Constitution has been amended [27 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_amendments_to_the_United_States_Constitution) in its history, most recently in 1992. This question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that before January 1st 2050 the US constitution received a 28th amendment. Otherwise it resolves negatively.\nThis question will close and resolve 1 hour before any 28th amendment becomes law, if one does.\n", + "numforecasts": 287, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-31T19:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/", @@ -8845,22 +8856,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 130, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", @@ -8878,7 +8873,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices, and many consider it to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. (Wikipedia)\nThe S&P 500 is at 3,044 points at the time of writing this question. Will it hit 10,000 points before the decade ends?\nThis question still resolves positively if it hits the 10,000 mark during the decade but is under that threshold on Jan 1 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 124, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", @@ -8920,33 +8915,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", - "numforecasts": 42, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", @@ -8963,22 +8931,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", - "numforecasts": 73, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6647/slow-boring-to-exceed-10k-subscribers-in-21/", @@ -8996,7 +8948,7 @@ } ], "description": "Substack is an online platform that provides publishing, payment, analytics, and design infrastructure to support subscription newsletters. [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/about) is a blog and newsletter by Matthew Yglesias on American politics and public policy. The name comes from Max Weber’s essay on “Politics as a Vocation” where he writes that “Politics is a strong and slow boring of hard boards” that “takes both passion and perspective.”\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that the Substack Slow Boring will have at least 10,000 paid subscribers (70% confident).\nWill the Substack Slow Boring exceed 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if slow Boring exceeds 10,000 paid subscribers in 2021, according to reports by Matt Yglesias, or credible media sources.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -9066,18 +9018,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", + "numforecasts": 239, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9098,20 +9050,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5927/value-of-faang-stocks-as--of-sp-500/", + "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", @@ -9119,7 +9082,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9129,6 +9092,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 83, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the world create the first Trillionaire?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/676/when-will-the-world-create-the-first-trillionaire/", @@ -9146,20 +9125,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "numforecasts": 548, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-28T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-10-08T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", @@ -9220,49 +9210,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 39, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6680/terence-mauri-probably-not-a-superforecaster/", @@ -9306,6 +9253,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Facebook is the world's most popular social media platform. In recent years, they have added a number of domains to their filter. Filtered domains cannot be posted on the site. While many such filtered domains are spam-related, some [hate groups](https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/groups) have also been banned. For instance, American Renaissance, an American white supremacist organization, has its links blocked on Facebook along with related sites.\nYoutube has similarly undertaken such bans. Previously this year, they banned the Stefan Molyneux show channel ([see prior question on his Twitter also being banned](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4733/will-stefan-molyneux-receive-a-long-term-twitter-ban-before-2021/)). Because of such bans, users who like such content are migrating to other sites, such as Bitchute, which in general are much more sympathetic to the far-right. Bitchute has been described by the [Anti-Defamation League](https://www.adl.org/blog/bitchute-a-hotbed-of-hate) as \na hotbed for violent, conspiratorial and hate-filled video propaganda, and a recruiting ground for extremists.\nthus raising the question of whether Facebook will ban links to these sites too.\nWill Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?\n---If before 1st January 2023, Facebook has added [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) to their filtered list, disallowing users to send messages and write posts with links to the domain, this resolves positively. Otherwise, negatively. \n---If [bitchute.com](http://bitchute.com) is defunct before 2023, it resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 31, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6374/release-date-of-1st-song-w-4b-spotify-plays/", @@ -9322,33 +9296,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6077/number-of-nuclear-weapons-2075/", @@ -9419,6 +9366,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Northern Ireland hold a reunification referendum before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6702/northern-irish-reunification-referendum/", @@ -9446,49 +9409,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5695/when-will-bryan-caplan-lose-a-bet/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", - "numforecasts": 21, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", @@ -9517,31 +9437,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", + "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, + "options": [], + "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", @@ -9571,31 +9480,52 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", + "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 287, + "options": [], + "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", + "numforecasts": 248, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the first 100 million digit prime number be discovered?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4451/when-will-the-first-100-million-digit-prime-number-be-discovered/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", + "numforecasts": 70, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-04T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-05-06T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T15:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy?", @@ -9630,50 +9560,72 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", + "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 80, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", + "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/", + "title": "Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6456/ban-on-gassing-eu-pigs-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.11, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.89, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "High-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs is the most frequently used method in all major EU pig slaughterhouses. A [European Food and Safety Agency opinion](https://efsa.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.2903/j.efsa.2020.6148) on the welfare of pigs at slaughter concluded that “there are no preventive or corrective measures to the pain, fear and respiratory distress caused by the exposure to high CO2 concentrations as this is inherent to the stunning method. The only way to prevent the hazard related to exposure to high CO2 concentrations is to use other gas mixtures like inert gasses or mixture of inert gases containing low CO2 concentrations”. \nThe use of high-concentration CO2 for the stunning or killing of pigs is allowed by EU Regulation 1099/2009 (the Slaughter Regulation). On November 12 2020, the European Parliament (EP) voted in favour of a [preparatory action](https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/programmes/pppa), aimed at finding alternatives to high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs. The European Commission [will invest](https://www.eurogroupforanimals.org/news/high-concentration-co2-stunning-pigs-european-parliament-approves-funding-move-away-cruel) 2 million euro in applied research in an effort to move away from the inhumane procedure.\nWill the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs by 2024?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of 31 December 2024 an EU law is in force that prohibits the use of high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs in EU countries, per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\n", + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "numforecasts": 132, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9694,18 +9646,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", + "title": "When will a Bering Strait crossing be completed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3136/when-will-a-bering-strait-crossing-be-completed/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 43, + "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-02T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-10-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2080-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "If the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", + "numforecasts": 26, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-04-01T06:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -9737,48 +9705,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/", + "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", + "numforecasts": 74, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6420/matt-levine-to-join-substack/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "description": "[Matt Levine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Levine_(columnist)) is a popular finance writer:\nMatt Levine is a columnist for Bloomberg News covering finance and business.[1] Levine has previously been a lawyer, investment banker, law clerk, and has written for a number of newspapers and financial sites.[2][3] His newsletter, Money Stuff, is one of the most popular on Wall Street with over 150k subscribers.\nWill Matt Levine join substack before 2023?\nThis resolves positively if Matt Levine has joined Substack and made at least one post before 2023, and negatively otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T18:28:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T18:28:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "numforecasts": 50, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", @@ -9806,45 +9774,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", - "numforecasts": 57, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 335, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6565/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 72, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -9903,20 +9839,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", + "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", - "numforecasts": 237, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", @@ -9946,20 +9893,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.3, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 292, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?", @@ -9994,7 +9952,7 @@ } ], "description": "All Brazilian presidents that have run for re-election since Fernando Cardoso (in 1998) were re-elected for a second term, so there is some expectation that this will occur again with Jair Bolsonaro if he runs for a second term. Nonetheless, in the last 30 years, two presidents suffered impeachments (Fernando Collor in 1992, in his first term, and Dilma Rousseff in 2016, in her second term), not ending their terms.\nPolitical support of Bolsonaro by the public and inside the congress has been variable, [ascending](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-politics-poll-idUSKCN26F369) after the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil, and [dropping](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/bolsonaro-accelerates-vaccine-plans-as-popularity-takes-a-hit) as the program of cash handouts to informal workers expired and a second wave developed. Calls for impeachment or for him to be removed from office are growing because of many factors, including his [mishandling](https://www.nytimes.com/article/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html) of the pandemic in Brazil, [bad economic](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/11/26/the-future-of-bolsonarismo) performance, [corruption](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/world/americas/brazil-bolsonaro-moro.html), and [disregard](https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2020/06/11/does-jair-bolsonaro-threaten-brazilian-democracy) for the due democratic process.\nAdding to this, the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential election may be contested (even if Bolsonaro wins), because Bolsonaro [already contested](https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2020/12/se-a-gente-nao-tiver-voto-impresso-pode-esquecer-eleicao-de-22-diz-bolsonaro-a-apoiadores.shtml) the results of the last presidential election, though not officially, on the basis that he should have won in the first round or by a larger margin.\nIn view of the above, this question asks:\nWill Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?\n--- \nThis question resolves positive if Jair Bolsonaro is the President of Brazil at 00:00 AM (Brasilia time, UTC -3) on 2023-01-02.\n--- \nIt resolves negative if he is not president at that time.\nCases of not seeking re-election, being re-elected for a second term, losing re-election, resignation, impeachment, or him being removed of power by any means, may indicate the most probable resolution of this question. But, because of the possibility of death, [autogolpe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup), and [coup d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d%27%C3%A9tat), we must wait till the resolution date.\nIn Brazil, presidential transfer of power happens on January first of the next year post-election, and the next one is expected to occur on 2023-Jan-01, but the precise moment of the ceremony on that day is uncertain, so may be necessary to wait till later on that day for resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, + "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -10005,96 +9963,69 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "title": "What will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4057/what-will-be-the-sentiment-of-metaculus-users-with-regard-to-self-resolving-questions-at-the-end-of-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", - "numforecasts": 384, + "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", + "numforecasts": 80, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-14T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/", + "title": "What will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n", - "numforecasts": 294, + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z" + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "On what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6451/us-covid-19-hospitalizations-under-30k/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6677/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-oct/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 45, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-07T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-18T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n", - "numforecasts": 109, + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", - "numforecasts": 510, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Mike Pence be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6331/will-mike-pence-run-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -10123,18 +10054,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "title": "What will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6684/cumulative-us-vaccinations-on-april-30/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", "numforecasts": 62, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T04:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10144,7 +10075,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -10155,45 +10086,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", - "numforecasts": 385, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", + "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 52, + "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-16T12:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2033-06-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-01-01T06:01:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10225,18 +10129,50 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", + "title": "When will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6200/50-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "numforecasts": 337, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the first 100 Megawatt fusion-based electrical generation facility come into service?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/363/will-a-fusion-based-electrical-generation-facility-generation-100-mw-or-more-using-only-fusion-as-an-energy-source-come-into-service-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n", + "numforecasts": 294, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-12-30T23:57:35Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-11-10T16:18:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-11-11T16:18:08Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n", + "numforecasts": 109, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10268,20 +10204,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "numforecasts": 133, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Kyle Rittenhouse is, [CBS news](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kyle-rittenhouse-shooting-kenosha-protest-suspect-arrested/):\nA teen accused of opening fire on a group during protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, last night, killing two, is in custody in Illinois, the Antioch police department announced in a Facebook post. The post did not name the 17-year-old, who they said is an Antioch resident. But the State's Attorney's office in Lake County, Illinois, said Kyle Rittenhouse was in bond court this morning regarding being a fugitive from justice in Wisconsin, and is being held on no bond. He was due back in court for an extradition hearing on Friday.\nHe was charged with first-degree intentional homicide. Wisconsin does not have murder charges, see [the Wikipedia overview](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_(United_States_law)#Degrees). One can find videos of the shooting in various places such as [Daily Herald](https://www.dailyherald.com/news/20200826/video-of-the-shooting-in-kenosha). [Allsides.com provides an overview of media takes from all sides](https://www.allsides.com/allsides-search-results?search_api_views_fulltext=rittenhouse&search=rittenhouse&created=2&submit.x=0&submit.y=0#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=rittenhouse&gsc.page=1).\nWill Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?\n---Concerns the first court case, not a potential appealed case. \n---Resolves negatively if charges are dropped, found not guilty, or given no punishment. Resolves positively if pleads or found guilty and given some sentencing. \n---Resolves ambiguous if Rittenhouse dies before the court verdict is finished. \nETA 2020-09-01: If Kyle Rittenhouse takes a plea deal to some lesser offense, the question resolves negatively\n", + "numforecasts": 510, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", @@ -10290,17 +10237,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "numforecasts": 2634, + "numforecasts": 2663, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", @@ -10311,18 +10258,61 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", + "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "numforecasts": 143, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", + "numforecasts": 385, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 219, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-12T19:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", + "numforecasts": 52, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10343,7 +10333,7 @@ } ], "description": "Both [China](https://apnews.com/article/technology-beijing-space-exploration-china-mars-265e6b1227e9ce0ea9c8bb1f6c1dbda3) and the [US](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/sending-american-astronauts-to-moon-in-2024-nasa-accepts-challenge/) have announced plans to land a person on the Moon. Both are tentatively aiming to land someone on the Moon in the year 2024.\nWill China land the next person on the Moon?\nThis question will resolve positively if the next person to successfully land on the Moon before the resolve date is a Chinese citizen and will resolve negatively otherwise.\nThis question will resolve immediately prior to the time of the Moon landing itself or, if that’s not available, immediately prior to the first credible media report.\nFor a person to successfully land on the Moon, they must be alive and inside a vehicle that physically touches the Moon’s surface. Everyone in the vehicle must be alive for 15 minutes after the vehicle touches down. They are not required to perform a walk outside the vehicle. “The Moon” refers to Earth’s moon. This does not require that they leave the Moon. If the next vehicle to land on the Moon contains more than one person, the person who performs the first Moon walk will be considered first. If there is no Moon walk, all people in the landing vehicle must be citizens of China for this to resolve positively. A Chinese citizen counts toward positive resolution even if they have citizenship in another country.\n", - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-18T07:00:00Z", @@ -10354,50 +10344,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6630/number-of-mars-helicopter-test-flights/", + "title": "How will Joe Biden rank among presidents?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5657/how-will-joe-biden-rank-among-presidents/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", - "numforecasts": 39, + "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-02T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-19T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-02T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-01-20T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-01-20T17:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6562/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-april-1st-us/", + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As January 31st, an average of 1.35 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on April 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on April 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on April 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 219, + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T18:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-12T19:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10418,18 +10392,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", + "numforecasts": 143, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10461,29 +10435,45 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "title": "What annual real return will the global stock market realize 2022-2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4585/what-annual-real-return-will-the-global-stock-market-realize-2022-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-08T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2033-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.08999999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 165, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10515,20 +10505,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", + "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 254, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?", @@ -10547,7 +10548,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2016 Paris Accord is an international pledge to limit global temperature increases to +2 Celsius over pre-industrial levels, aiming for a 1.5C increase. The UN Environment Programme's [2020 emissions gap report](https://www.unep.org/emissions-gap-report-2020) finds that current carbon emissions will lead to a 3C or greater increase by 2100.\nThe most important near-term step to avoiding the worst effects of climate change is to reduce our emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses. Our World In Data finds that current climate policies and pledges [will not reduce emissions quickly enough](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#current-climate-policies-will-reduce-emissions-but-not-quickly-enough-to-reach-international-targets) to keep warming below 2C.\nInitial estimates expect total emissions in 2020 to be about 7% lower than 2019, due to the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The UNEP estimates that 2019 had 59.1 gigatons of CO2 and CO2 equivalents emitted, with emissions from land-use change included (\"land-use changes\" meaning emissions created by deforestation, conversion of forest land to agricultural land, and soil degradation).\nKelsey Piper gave a [90% prediction](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) in Vox that global carbon emissions will increase in 2021.\nWill global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question will resolve positive if total CO2 and CO2-equivalent emissions are greater in 2021 than in 2020, according to the United Nations Environment Programme. All CO2-equivalent sources shall be included (including land-use change).\nIf there are no official statistics from the UNEP before 2023, another source, such as the US EPA or NOAA will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -10558,31 +10559,36 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4774/will-scott-morrison-be-prime-minister-of-australia-on-1-july-2021/", + "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.91, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.08999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Australia's parliamentary system gives members of the party in government the ability to vote on their leader, and so change the ruling Prime Minister outside of an election.\nAustralia's recent political history has also been characterised by frequent '[leadership spills](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_spill)'. In the last 13 years, there have been four successful leadership spills by the party in government, and [five separate Prime Ministers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_Australia).\nIn late 2019 and early 2020, Scott Morrison (the Prime Minister of Australia at the time of writing) saw a number of challenges to his popular approval, including controversy over [a trip to Hawaii](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/21/scott-morrison-hawaii-horror-show-pr-disaster-unfolded) during a catastrophic bushfire season. Since the last election, at least one [poll](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll) indicates that the two major parties have been within four points of one another. Given Australia's recent history of 'leadership spills', this question asks: \nWill Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?\nThis question will resolve as positive if, on 1 July 2021, the Australian government's official Prime Minister website '[pm.gov.au](https://www.pm.gov.au/)' lists 'Scott Morrison' as the current Prime Minister, negative if another name is listed, and ambiguous otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 164, + "options": [], + "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", + "numforecasts": 254, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-12T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T14:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 77, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will an AI pass the laugh test?", @@ -10600,22 +10606,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -10644,18 +10634,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 74, + "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", + "numforecasts": 91, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10675,22 +10665,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6341/when-will-starship-reach-orbit/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", - "numforecasts": 90, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", @@ -10714,17 +10688,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 21, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", @@ -10740,7 +10714,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 24, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", @@ -10777,22 +10751,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "numforecasts": 49, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2035?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6806/lab-grown-organs-be-used-in-humans-by-2035/", @@ -10810,7 +10768,7 @@ } ], "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/) \nMore than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)\nHowever, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.\nIn response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.\nBefore Janury 1 2035, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?\nAll transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.\nFor the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.\n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T03:00:00Z", @@ -10821,18 +10779,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -10853,31 +10811,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", - "numforecasts": 14, + "options": [], + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", @@ -10895,33 +10842,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6790/return-to-baseline-us-consumer-spending-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) has significantly disrupted the US economy and the everyday lives of every person on earth. [US unemployment briefly spiked to 14.7%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1643/will-the-us-unemployment-rate-reach-10-before-2023/), and due to individual choice and government-imposed lockdowns, many retail and hospitality buisnesses have been in a year-long slump.\nA question has been on all of our minds: \"when will things go back to normal?\" [News of vaccinations administered](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/) is encouraging, but \"back to normal\" is very vague.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Kelsey Piper predicts](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nRestaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year (70 percent)\nWith the vaccine for the novel coronavirus widely available by next summer, I predict that the lockdown will extend longer than we’d like but certainly not through the next year. I expect that by the fall, consumer spending will be back to normal — plausibly even boosted by pent-up demand. I’ll look at [this page of government statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) to see if I got this one right.\nKelsey leaves some wiggle room about about what \"back to normal by end of year\" means, so we ask:\nWill restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home go back to normal in the US in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the USA BEA reports that [6 out of 7 consumer spending statistics](https://www.bea.gov/recovery/estimates-from-payment-card-transactions) have a monthly average above 0 (defined as \"typical\") at any point in 2021. These statistics are:\n--- \nSpending on Food and Beverages (NAICS 445)\n--- \nSpending on Ambulatory Health Care Services (NAICS 621)\n--- \nTotal Spending on Retail and Food Services (Excluding Nonstore Retailers)\n(the above have already measured greater than 0 on January 2021)\n--- \nSpending on Food Services and Drinking Places (NAICS 722)\n--- \nSpending on Accommodation (NAICS 721)\n--- \nSpending at Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (NAICS 448)\n--- \nSpending on Gasoline Stations (NAICS 447)\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6457/when-will-most-eu-eggs-be-sexed/", @@ -10938,6 +10858,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", + "numforecasts": 42, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will any of Great Britain be under monarchy in 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6691/1-of-great-britain-under-monarchy-in-2075/", @@ -10966,29 +10902,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.22999999999999998, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "numforecasts": 1096, + "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -10998,7 +10934,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 68, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -11008,6 +10944,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", + "numforecasts": 105, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", @@ -11035,22 +10987,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6170/indoor-party-of-100-people-in-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", - "numforecasts": 105, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1468/will-xi-jinping-keep-leading-china-past-2022/", @@ -11084,7 +11020,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", - "numforecasts": 147, + "numforecasts": 148, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-22T05:00:00Z", @@ -11095,45 +11031,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "numforecasts": 1306, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in the US iOS App Store?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6696/clubhouse-vs-discord/", + "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T00:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-16T00:20:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11153,13 +11062,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", + "numforecasts": 298, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -11186,36 +11111,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many people will be estimated to have died of famine in Yemen before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2523/how-many-people-will-be-estimated-to-have-died-of-famine-in-yemen-before-2022/", + "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", - "numforecasts": 298, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.27, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.73, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-13T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", @@ -11223,7 +11143,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -11233,49 +11153,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6546/impossible-foods-heme-banned-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "From the Impossible Foods [FAQ](https://faq.impossiblefoods.com/hc/en-us/articles/360019100553-What-is-soy-leghemoglobin-or-heme-),\nAlthough heme has been consumed every day for hundreds of thousands of years, Impossible Foods discovered that it’s what makes meat taste so meaty.\nFrom [Food Safety News](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2021/02/lawsuit-challenges-fda-approval-of-additive-that-makes-impossible-burger-bleed/),\nThe Center for Food Safety is challenging the FDA’s approval of a color additive used to make Impossible Foods’ plant-based burger appear to “bleed” like real meat. The advocacy group claims that the FDA’s decision was not based on “convincing evidence” as required by regulation.\nIn a brief filed Jan. 28 in the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals, the center is specifically challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin.\n“This includes studies for cancer, reproductive impairment and other adverse effects called for by FDA’s Redbook, the Bible of food and color additive testing. We find this to be all the more troubling because a number of potential adverse effects were detected in a short-term rat trial: disruption of reproductive cycles and reduced uterine weights in females and biomarkers of anemia, reduced clotting ability and kidney problems.”\nThe novel “heme” colorant is produced in genetically engineered (GE) yeast and is modeled on a protein found in the roots of soybeans. The ingredient is also referred to as genetically engineered “heme,” soy leghemoglobin. It is the color additive Impossible Foods uses to make its plant-based burger appear to “bleed” as if it were beef. \nFrom Wikipedia, the Center for Food Safety [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Food_Safety),\na 501c3, U.S. non-profit advocacy organization, based in Washington, D.C. It maintains an office in San Francisco, California. The executive director is Andrew Kimbrell, an attorney. Its stated mission is to protect human health and the environment, focusing on food production technologies such as genetically modified plants and organisms (GMOs). It was founded in 1997.\nYou can read the brief filed with the Ninth Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals [here](https://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/files/2021-01-28--ecf-45-cfs-combined-reply-brief_82674.pdf).\nWill Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if, before January 1st 2023, either of the following become true (even if briefly), in the United States, as determined by credible media:\n--- \nThe FDA reverses its decision to approve soy leghemoglobin, which can be found [here](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/fda-brief/fda-brief-fda-approval-soy-leghemoglobin-color-additive-now-effective).\n--- \nAny federal governing body in the United States orders that the sale of foods that contain soy leghemoglobin is now illegal.\nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6436/world-military-expenditure-in-2021/", @@ -11292,13 +11169,45 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6685/date-for-ml-visual-predictor-of-the-big-five/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", + "numforecasts": 34, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T02:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3768/how-many-new-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-1st-quarter-of-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_outbreak) is an ongoing outbreak of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 29 February 2020, more than 85,000 cases have been confirmed in 60 countries, of which 8,000 were classified as serious. More than 2,900 deaths have been attributed to the disease.\nThis question is a part of series of questions trying to estimate the rate of growth of the COVID-19 disease during the next year. Especially, [whether COVID-19 will go away on its own in warmer weather](https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/)? And whether COVID-19 is likely to become reoccurring disease. \nThis question asks how many new cases will be reported in the 1st quarter of 2021 (between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021).\nResolution Criteria: The question will resolve based on the difference in reported cases on 31 March 2021 and 1 of January 2021 as reported by WHO. Preferably based on [Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) global confirmed cases for that dates. \nIn case the number of global confirmed cases will not be available, the best next estimates published by WHO should be used. The question will resolve ambiguous, if the data will be not available at least on quarterly or monthly basis.\nOther questions in the series. \nHow many new cases of COVID-19 in:\n---[the 2nd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3765/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-2nd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 3rd quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3766/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2020/) \n---[the 4th quarter of 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3767/how-many-new-confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-4th-quarter-of-2020/) \nSimilar question: [How many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-human-infections-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021/)\n", - "numforecasts": 967, + "numforecasts": 983, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -11335,22 +11244,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6057/us-employment-of-ages-65-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", @@ -11443,29 +11336,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6313/conservative-scotus-majority-to-recede/", + "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Define a conservative Supreme Court of the United States justice as a justice appointed by a Republican president. As of January 14th 2021, there are [6 conservative Supreme Court justices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_justices_of_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States): John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett.\nWill there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20th, 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if by the moment Joe Biden's first term in office is scheduled to end (on January 20th, 2025), there are fewer than 6 conservative justices on the Supreme Court of the United States, as per reliable sources. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 89, + "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", + "numforecasts": 82, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-17T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -11502,18 +11395,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", + "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", + "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -11560,22 +11453,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 321, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6312/will-kamala-harris-run-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -11603,13 +11480,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 321, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -11620,56 +11513,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", + "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", - "numforecasts": 135, + "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", + "numforecasts": 149, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", - "numforecasts": 82, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -11701,47 +11567,58 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/", + "title": "Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6378/major-nuclear-accident-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "When President Biden assumed office, he was 78 years old, older than Ronald Reagan when he left office, and [22 years older than the median age](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/elections/2020/11/20/joe-bidens-birthday-presidents-ages-inauguration-day/3777287001/) of a POTUS since 1960. \nOf the 45 individuals who have served as president, 6 have chosen not to run for reelection to a 2nd full term: [LBJ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJeLoMCF6Jo), James Polk, James Buchanan, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge, and Harry S. Truman.\nBy November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?\nResolves as positive if Biden files a Statement of Candidacy or a Statement of Organization of an exploratory committee for the office of president with the Federal Election Commission with respect to the 2024 cycle by 2023-11-15.\nIf there is no such filing by the closing date, this resolves as negative. \n", - "numforecasts": 149, + "description": "previous Metaculus questions:\n---[Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before 1 January 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2512/will-there-be-a-major-nuclear-or-radiological-accident-before-1-january-2022/) \nThe [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale) (INES) was introduced in 1990 by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in order to enable prompt communication of safety-significant information in case of nuclear accidents.\nThe scale is intended to be logarithmic, similar to the moment magnitude scale that is used to describe the comparative magnitude of earthquakes. Each increasing level represents an accident approximately ten times more severe than the previous level.\nCompared to earthquakes, where the event intensity can be quantitatively evaluated, the level of severity of a man-made disaster, such as a nuclear accident, is more subject to interpretation. Because of the difficulty of interpreting, the INES level of an incident is assigned well after the incident occurs.\nThe INES scale consists of eight levels, with level seven - 'Major Accidents' - being the most serious. A level seven event involves a major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects requiring implementation of planned and extended countermeasures.\nTo date, there have been two level seven Major Accidents: the [Chernobyl disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster) that began on 26 April 1986, and the [Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster), a series of events beginning on 11 March 2011.\nAs INES ratings are not assigned by a central body, high-profile nuclear incidents are sometimes assigned INES ratings by the operator, by the formal body of the country, but also by scientific institutes, international authorities or other experts which may lead to confusion as to the actual severity.\nWill there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if an event or series of events that begins prior to 01 January 2030 is classified as a level seven Major Accident on the INES scale, with that classification being issued before 01 January 2031, by any of the following: a national nuclear regulatory authority (for example, any of the agencies featured on [this list](https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/appendices/nuclear-regulation-regulators.aspx) or [this list](http://www.ensreg.eu/members-glance/national-regulators)), the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the Head of State or Head of Government of the country in which the incident takes place, or any Permanent Member of the United Nations Security Council.\n", + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-11T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-16T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-11-17T04:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6251/the-first-european-trillion-dollar-company/", + "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", - "numforecasts": 27, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", + "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-26T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T11:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the US implement any of Alex Tabarrok's vaccine suggestions?", @@ -11798,31 +11675,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6384/a-new--good-episode-of-the-simpsons/", + "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The Simpsons is famous for many things, one of them that the show is widely considered to be incredibly funny in its earlier seasons but less and less so in its later seasons. \nOn [a chart of IMDb ratings](https://www.ratingraph.com/tv-shows/the-simpsons-ratings-3857/) you can see a clear downward trajectory to the point where newly released episodes get averages of around 6/10 compared to earlier seasons where most episodes scored well above 8/10.\nThe most recent episode to get an 8 or above was [Barthood](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4773522/) in 2015.\nWill there be an episode of The Simpsons with an IMDb rating ≥ 8/10 before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if any future episode of The Simpsons scores ≥ 8.0/10 on IMDb with ≥ 300 user votes, before 2022.\nBecause there is no historical IMDB ratings data and ratings change over time, this question will resolve based on credible user reporting. If a report is made by a Metaculus user that the resolution criteria has been met, and it is judged credible by a Metaculus admin, the question will resolve positive. If no such report is made, it will resolve negative. A credible report might include a screenshot or a snapshot from a service like [Wayback Machine](https://archive.is) or [Archive.Today](https://archive.is).\n---The rating of the episode must specifically come from the weighted average listed on the episode's IMDb page. See [here](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9761050/ratings?ref_=tt_ov_rt) for an example. \n---If a crossover episode, like [Simpsorama](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt3144282/), achieves a ≥ 8/10 rating, the question will still resolve positively as long as the episode is listed on [The Simpsons IMDb page](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0096697/) and not the page of the show it crosses over with. \n---This can also resolve positive if an admin sees firsthand that an episode has met the resolution criteria. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "options": [], + "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "numforecasts": 255, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-02T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T09:19:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "If Starlink offers an IPO before 2030, will it set a record for the largest IPO?", @@ -11921,6 +11787,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", + "numforecasts": 300, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Nintendo release a console capable of 4K output?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3840/when-will-nintendo-release-a-console-capable-of-4k-output/", @@ -11937,22 +11819,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", - "numforecasts": 299, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", @@ -11960,17 +11826,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 1131, + "numforecasts": 1139, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -11980,22 +11846,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "numforecasts": 255, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-27T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What annual real return will the S&P 500 realize 2022-2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4615/what-annual-real-return-will-the-sp-500-realize-2022-2031/", @@ -12044,65 +11894,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 439, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", - "numforecasts": 133, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", @@ -12130,6 +11921,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", + "numforecasts": 133, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", @@ -12157,6 +11964,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", + "numforecasts": 91, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6022/when-will-wild-animal-welfare-reach-top-uni/", @@ -12174,18 +11997,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", + "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", + "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", + "numforecasts": 59, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12205,6 +12044,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5992/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", + "numforecasts": 48, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", @@ -12239,17 +12094,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[With Donald Trump being banned from most major platforms](https://www.axios.com/platforms-social-media-ban-restrict-trump-d9e44f3c-8366-4ba9-a8a1-7f3114f920f1.html), thereby losing his 88 million followers on Twitter ([6th largest account](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-followed_Twitter_accounts)), there is a question of whether he will move to an alternative platform. If he does, he may pull a substantial number of users with him, and regain many of his followers.\nWill Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?\n---If an official Trump account reaches at least 10M followers (no matter the terminology) on a platform that isn't Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, Twitch, Youtube, Instagram, Snapchat, Tiktok, Discord, or Twilio, (such as Parler or Gab), this resolves positively. \n---This must be achieved before the next US presidential election in November 2024. \n---Platforms must be open to the public. \n", - "numforecasts": 178, + "numforecasts": 179, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -12259,38 +12114,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How big will be the first crew sent to Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", - "numforecasts": 199, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/", @@ -12308,18 +12131,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/", + "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", - "numforecasts": 18, + "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", + "numforecasts": 204, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T22:07:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T23:07:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12329,7 +12152,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -12404,20 +12227,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", + "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", - "numforecasts": 23, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", + "numforecasts": 121, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", @@ -12452,18 +12286,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", + "title": "Which language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5485/most-popular-language-modelling-benchmark-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", - "numforecasts": 35, + "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", + "numforecasts": 23, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-19T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -12500,7 +12334,7 @@ } ], "description": "An [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Israeli_legislative_election) will take place in Israel this March. The Likud party [won the previous election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Israeli_legislative_election) and is [leading in polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Israeli_legislative_election).\nThis question will resolve positively if Likud win more Knesset seats than any other party. Unlike [a related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-marchw-2021-election/) this does not consider post-election coalition negotiations.\nIn the March 2021 Knesset election, will Likud win a plurality of seats?\nThis will resolve negatively if Likud ties with another party for number of seats. It will resolve ambiguously if no election takes place in March 2021\n", - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 152, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T05:00:00Z", @@ -12510,6 +12344,76 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", + "numforecasts": 379, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.28, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.72, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 121, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", @@ -12565,55 +12469,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/", + "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The COVID-19 outbreak in China has been rife with [allegations of misrepresentation by Chinese government officials](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/). These began at the local level, where officials in Hubei province potentially under-reported the magnitude of the outbreak in early January to Chinese central government authorities. A public health worker famously released [a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRoG0kXnBSM&feature=youtu.be) around January 26 claiming that at that time, at least 90,000 cases had occurred--at the time the Chinese government was reporting fewer than 2000 infections. Since then, the insufficiently-inclusive strategy of counting only persons with laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 depressed the counts of probable cases. And the patterns of growth in the official counts follow an unexpected distribution, implying the counts may be generated by a model which doesn't accurately represent the dynamics of the disease's spread through the population.\nThis latter allegation is perhaps the most important and severe, as it means that estimations of epidemiological characteristics based on Chinese data may lead to public health interventions which do not reflect the reality of the viral spread. For example, if the R_0 (the average number of people an infected person will pass the virus along to) is underestimated, it may lead to insufficiently aggressive strategies for reducing the propagation of the virus across the globe. However, overestimating it could lead to overly-aggressive quarantining strategies, hobbling international commerce. Getting a proper assessment of the epidemiological dynamics is critical to devising the appropriate public health response.\nQuestion: Will at least two public health agencies publicly accuse the Chinese government of deliberately misrepresenting the number of COVID-19 infections before 2025?\nResolution\nThis questions resolves positively if, before 2025, at least two of the public health agencies listed below claim that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately lied about, fabricated, or misrepresented case or death numbers. If an agency claims that the numbers were flawed, but does not go as far as to suggest deliberate lying or misrepresentation, this will not count. For the purpose of this question, we consider only statements by the following public health agencies:\n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/) (including the [Epidemic Intelligence Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemic_Intelligence_Service)) \n---The [European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/home) (including the [Health Threat Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_Threat_Unit)) \n---[World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/) \n---[The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention](http://www.chinacdc.cn/en/) \n---The [Centre for Health Protection](https://www.chp.gov.hk/en/index.html) \n---[Robert Koch Institute](https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html) \n---[The National Institute of Infectious Diseases](https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/) \n---[Public Health England](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/public-health-england) \n---[The National Centre for Infectious Diseases](https://www.ncid.sg/About-NCID/Pages/default.aspx) \n---[Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Korea](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=Centers+for+Disease+Control+and+Prevention+Korea&meta=) \n---[The Public Health Agency of Canada](https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health.html) \nIn case multiple subdivisions of any of the above agencies make assessments that China more likely than not lied about case or death numbers, these will only count as single accusation made by a single agency.\nThe relevant assessments will count if they are judged by Metaculus to broadly state that it is more likely than not that the Chinese government deliberately did lie about, fabricate, or misrepresent case or death counts.\nThis question has a short-fuse [sister](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3710/before-2020-05-17-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/).\n", - "numforecasts": 379, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-25T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 64, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", @@ -12621,23 +12493,7 @@ "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "numforecasts": 69, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will MIRI employ researchers in 2030?", @@ -12646,17 +12502,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.73, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The [Machine Intelligence Research Institute](https://intelligence.org/) (MIRI) is a non-profit research institute focused since 2005 on identifying and managing potential existential risks from artificial general intelligence.\nAccording to its website:\nMIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make advanced intelligent systems behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision.\nRecently, MIRI has [shared that](https://intelligence.org/2020/12/21/2020-updates-and-strategy/) it has made limited progress on a research direction it has been pursuing:\nAt the same time, 2020 saw limited progress in the research MIRI’s leadership had previously been most excited about: the new research directions we started in 2017. Given our slow progress to date, we are considering a number of possible changes to our strategy, and MIRI’s research leadership is shifting much of their focus toward searching for more promising paths.\nWill MIRI exist in 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if, on 2030-01-01 MIRI exists and employs researchers to work on AI Safety. \nFor the purpose of this question AI Safety is broadly defined as any technical work, at any level of abstraction, focused on the alignment of AI systems, existing or hypothetical, with some broad notion of human interests.\nResearch is here defined as involving developing novel ideas and insights broadly in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields (such as computer science or mathematics) at the time. Currently, blog posts alone wouldn't count for resolution as this does not currently conform to the standard format of academic publications. For the purpose of this question, such research need not be published nor made publicly available. In case it is unclear whether this work is done, a moderator may contact MIRI to confirm. \nIf MIRI changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If MIRI merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution.\nIn case MIRI's research is circulated internally only, the requirement that the work need to be \"developed in the standard format of academic publications in relevant fields\" will not apply.\n", - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", @@ -12683,12 +12539,39 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", + "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", + "numforecasts": 192, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 69, + "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "numforecasts": 70, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -12699,58 +12582,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "title": "When will the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before occur?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6770/first-reuse-of-a-starship-upper-stage/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "options": [], + "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n", + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:59:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", - "numforecasts": 121, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2021?", @@ -12785,7 +12630,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of Feb. 11, 2021, the CDC reports the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" in the US as 34.7M.\nOn what date will this number reach 100M?\nWhen will 100M people in the US have received at least one dose of COVID vaccine?\nThe [CDC tracker may be found here](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nResolves to the first date on which the \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses\" at the above link is above 100M.\nIf the relevant metric stops being reported by the CDC, the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) will be used to determine when the number of Americans who have received at least one vaccine dose reaches 100M.\n", - "numforecasts": 158, + "numforecasts": 174, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-23T23:00:00Z", @@ -12795,6 +12640,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", + "numforecasts": 29, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe price of oil is a useful indicator of current and future economic health by signalling global demand and supply levels. During 2020, with the onset of a global pandemic, oil demand fell greatly, driving down prices and leaving producers with large amounts of unused crude oil stock. IEA experts [report](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that attempts to rebalance supply and demand will exceed the time frame of 2021, leaving prices lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWith prices over $70 per barrel of Brent crude oil [in January 2020](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart), that number dropped to [below $10](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart) in April. Slowly pulling itself back, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil just breached $50 at the end of December 2020. \nPredictions should represent the probability that the price of Brent crude oil will exceed $70 in 2021. \nWill the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from MacroTrends’ [10 year chart of Brent crude oil prices](https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-year-daily-chart). Historical data can be downloaded from the site as well.\nThis question will resolve as positive if the price of Brent crude oil exceeds $70 by the end of 2021, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 240, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-01T02:08:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-02T03:08:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/", @@ -12849,6 +12748,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", + "numforecasts": 76, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", @@ -12876,49 +12791,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 466, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n", - "numforecasts": 130, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6074/will-netanyahu-win-the-march-2021-election/", @@ -12947,29 +12819,56 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/", + "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", - "numforecasts": 188, + "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "numforecasts": 519, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By 2025, will laws be in place requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they are AI?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2788/by-2025-will-laws-be-in-place-requiring-that-ai-systems-that-emulate-humans-must-reveal-to-people-that-they-are-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Cross-posted from [ai.metaculus](http://ai.metaculus.com). Originally sourced from [Science Bets](http://sciencebets.org/one_sided_predictions.html). \nAs AI gets more powerful, it is likely that systems that can \"pass a Turing test\" and deceive people into believing that the AI is human will become available and controversial.\nFor example, the Google Duplex bot courted controversy with its extremely accurate mimicking of a human's voice, dialogue, and cadence. Public backlash prompted Google to [announce that the system would always first identify itself as a bot](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-10/google-grapples-with-horrifying-reaction-to-uncanny-ai-tech).\nBy 2025, will there be laws in place in a country requiring that AI systems that emulate humans must reveal to people that they use AI?\nRelated Questions: [When will the first law concerning artificial intelligence be passed in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/418/when-will-the-first-law-concerning-artificial-intelligence-be-passed-in-the-us/) \n", + "numforecasts": 130, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-03-01T10:05:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13001,39 +12900,109 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "title": "Will an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1444/will-an-openly-lgbtq-person-be-elected-president-of-the-united-states-by-2041/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", - "numforecasts": 450, + "description": "The LGBTQ movement has made [massive strides](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/19/us/lgbt-rights-milestones-fast-facts/index.html) during the 21st century in the United States. Less than 60 years ago engaging in consensual homosexual acts in private was [illegal](http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1989-06-26/news/8902120553_1_gay-bar-anti-gay-activists-first-openly-gay-supervisor) in parts of the country. But progress has been undeniable. In 2015 the U.S. Supreme Court [legalized gay marriage](https://www.cnn.com/2015/06/26/politics/supreme-court-same-sex-marriage-ruling/index.html) just seven years after the country elected its first President who was not a straight white male. \nWill an openly LGBTQ person be elected President of the United States by 2041?\nNew resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must, during the campaign, either: \n---Publicly identify as something else than cisgender. \n---Publicly identify as something else than heterosexual. \nThis question will resolve negatively if all candidates elected president by 2041 identify as both cisgender and heterosexual.\nResolution will be by credible media reports.\nOld resolution criteria:\nThis question resolves positively if an openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president before 2041. The candidate must be lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or queer. This question will resolve negatively if no openly LGBTQ candidate is elected president by 2041. An ambiguous resolution will result if a candidates sexuality is brought forth during their campaign from a source other than themselves and they continue to win the presidency.\n", + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-08T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-11-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-11-07T08:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", + "numforecasts": 230, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", + "numforecasts": 194, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", + "numforecasts": 15, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 117, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -13070,22 +13039,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6686/astr-market-cap-two-weeks-after-going-public/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 14, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T17:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T17:53:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", @@ -13102,22 +13055,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 118, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", @@ -13140,7 +13077,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 28, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -13150,13 +13087,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6233/us-share-of-world-supercompute-june-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "numforecasts": 118, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6545/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", @@ -13167,34 +13120,18 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "numforecasts": 192, + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", + "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", - "numforecasts": 167, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -13269,31 +13206,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, + "options": [], + "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", + "numforecasts": 167, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "resolve_time": "2022-01-14T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?", @@ -13323,18 +13249,61 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", + "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", - "numforecasts": 195, + "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 34, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.53, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.47, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 103, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -13361,17 +13330,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\nWill the People's Republic of China have annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following occur between the time this question is posted and January 1, 2050:\n---There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\") of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data. \n---There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan. \n---There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. \nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 140, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", @@ -13382,48 +13351,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", - "numforecasts": 156, + "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", + "numforecasts": 131, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", - "numforecasts": 97, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Conservative Party form the first government after the next UK general election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3439/will-the-conservative-party-form-the-first-government-after-the-next-uk-general-election/", @@ -13441,7 +13426,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom. The governing party since 2010, it is the largest in the House of Commons, with 365 Members of Parliament. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nThe Conservatives have won (i.e. formed the first government after the election) the last four elections in the UK, and have increased their share of the popular vote in every election since 2001.\n[The most recent general election in the UK was held on 12 December 2019.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election) Unless changes are made to the lifetime of a Parliament, the next election will take place on or before 12 December 2024.\nThis question asks: Will the first government to be formed after the next UK general election be formed by the Conservatives, either as a majority government, minority government, or as the senior partner in a formal coalition?\nThis question resolves positively if the first government to be formed after the next UK general election is as described above, and negatively if any other government is formed.\nThis question refers specifically to the first government formed after the next general election. In the event that a new government is formed without an election (e.g. because of a vote of no confidence) this question shall not apply to that event.\n", - "numforecasts": 321, + "numforecasts": 322, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", @@ -13451,6 +13436,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 33, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", @@ -13494,22 +13506,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", - "numforecasts": 41, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-02T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", @@ -13537,22 +13533,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will we get through the 21st century without an assassination of a sitting American President?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1090/will-we-get-through-the-21st-century-without-an-assassination-of-a-sitting-american-president/", @@ -13580,6 +13560,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", @@ -13607,65 +13603,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", - "numforecasts": 86, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T22:49:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", - "numforecasts": 293, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a space-based interferometer detect a gravitational wave background attributable to cosmological sources?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6507/discovery-of-gravitational-wave-background/", @@ -13709,33 +13646,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 121, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", @@ -13759,17 +13669,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "While Tesla is already a very large automobile company based on market capitalisation, a lot of that market capitalisation is based on expectations of the future. As of the writing of this question, Tesla is losing money and selling significantly less cars than even the 20th largest auto-company in the world. Yet, the expectations that have been set for Tesla by Elon Musk would probably require Tesla to sell more cars than any other company on the planet while maintaining large profit-margins.\nIn order to ramp-up production from approx. 100,000 to 500,000 or 1,000,000 cars a year, Tesla has created the Model 3, its first mass market car. Regrettably, Tesla has had trouble producing the Model 3 and production of the car can be tracked [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/). It is likely that Tesla's total vehicle production must exceed 10 million in order for it to become the world's largest car company. Yet, given its financial situation, there is a risk that the company goes bankrupt before that happens.\nSo, without further ado, it is asked:Will Tesla become the [world's largest motor vehicle producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_manufacturers_by_motor_vehicle_production) in some calendar year prior to 2035? \nData for resolution shall be taken from the [International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles), which is where the Wikipedia link got the data from itself.\n", - "numforecasts": 586, + "numforecasts": 587, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", @@ -13785,7 +13695,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", - "numforecasts": 114, + "numforecasts": 115, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", @@ -13796,55 +13706,55 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", - "numforecasts": 59, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", + "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.43000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, will Climeworks still be selling negative emissions using broadly similar technology to their 2020 approach?\nThis question resolves positive if [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4857/what-will-be-the-cost-of-negative-emissions-sold-by-climeworks-in-2030/) question has an unambiguous resolution. Otherwise, it resolves negative.\n", - "numforecasts": 58, + "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n", + "numforecasts": 54, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6719/-variants-monitored-by-cdc-on-4-april/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nThere is [substantial](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) [concern](https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/22247525/covid-19-variants-uk-south-africa-brazil-b117-why-now) that additional variants that are more transmissible and/or can evade preexisting immunity will arise. One such variant of interest (VOI) that has recently emerged is B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\nData sources and more information:\n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/scientific-brief-emerging-variants.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---[Escape of SARS-CoV-2 501Y.V2 variants from neutralization by convalescent plasma](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) \n---[Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, despite high seroprevalence](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext) \n---[Alarming COVID variants show vital role of genomic surveillance](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00065-4) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \nHow many variants of concern will be monitored by the US CDC as of 4 April?\nThis question will resolve as the number of variants of concern at the following link: [“US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants”](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) page as of Sunday, 2021–04-04. For example, as of 2021–03-02 this page shows that there are three variants: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. This page is updated on Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays by 7pm ET and will be accessed at approximately 10pm ET on 2021–04-04 (a Sunday).\n", - "numforecasts": 83, + "numforecasts": 122, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -13871,45 +13781,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", - "numforecasts": 15, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5118/will-robin-hanson-win-a-bet-that-the-gpt-line-of-language-models-will-generate--1bn-in-customer-revenue-by-2025/", + "title": "Will Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-to-be-the-largest-global-ipo-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Per [this tweet](https://twitter.com/robinhanson/status/1297325331158913025), Robin Hanson has bet Alex Tabarrok that \nSystems in GPT line will by 2025 make <$1B in customer revenue clearly tied to such systems. If product contains such as component, but also has other features, one needs to attribute best estimate % of product revenue to this one. \nWill Hanson win the bet? \nResolution is positive if Tabarrok publicly concedes the bet, negative if Hanson publicly concedes the bet, and ambiguous if nobody has conceded by end of 2025.\n", - "numforecasts": 191, + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Stripe](https://stripe.com/about), a payment processing service for online enterprises, is poised to potentially become the biggest IPO of 2021 - that is, if it goes public. \nWith its last private valuation at $36 billion in October 2020, the company, founded by brothers Patrick and John Collison, is [pushing to achieve a $100 billion valuation](https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-stripe-be-the-biggest-ipo-in-2021-2021-01-10) by selling securities over the next year. However, the company has delayed making any announcements about its plans to go public in 2021. \nAccording to CB Insights, if the company goes public at its desired $100 billion valuation, it would [become the most valuable company](https://www.fintechfutures.com/2020/12/stripe-chases-100bn-valuation-with-no-sign-of-ipo/) to go public this year, overtaking other hotly anticipated stocks such as Robinhood and Bumble.\nWill Stripe be the largest IPO worldwide in 2021 by valuation?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves positively if Stripe goes public in 2021 and if the valuation by the SEC is greater than all other IPO valuations. It resolved negatively otherwise. \nResolution will be sourced from reliable news sources including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Bloomberg, or Forbes as examples.\n", + "numforecasts": 14, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T18:36:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T19:36:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -13929,22 +13823,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", - "numforecasts": 36, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Dr. Ezekiel Emanuel retract his view that he wants to die by 75?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5678/dr-ezekiel-emanuel-to-retract-deathist-view/", @@ -13979,17 +13857,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Will Andrew M. Cuomo still be governor of New York on June 30, 2021? \nNew York has had [8 out of 56 governors resign](https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_gubernatorial_resignations#New_York) (14%), 2 of them following allegations of misconduct, with the most recent being Elliot Spitzer on March 17, 2008, following revelations of his [prostitution scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Spitzer_prostitution_scandal). On February 27, 2021, the NY Times ran a [front-page story](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/nyregion/cuomo-charlotte-bennett-sexual-harassment.html) on a 2nd accuser of sexual harassment on the part of Cuomo. An additional controversy is the [New York COVID-19 nursing home scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_COVID-19_nursing_home_scandal).\nAs of February 27, 2021, prominent [calls for Cuomo's resignation](https://nypost.com/2021/02/27/ny-pols-speak-out-against-andrew-cuomo-as-2nd-accuser-emerges/) within his own party have come from NY State Senator Alessandra Biaggi and NY State Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, with calls for an independent investigation coming from Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, NYC Comptroller Scott Stringer, and State Sen. James Skoufis, who heads the Committee on Investigations.\nWill Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if Andrew M. Cuomo is the governor of the State of New York on June 30, 2021 at 11:59 PM. Otherwise, this resolves negatively.\nIn cases of any dispute, go with whether Cuomo is listed as governor at [https://www.governor.ny.gov/](https://www.governor.ny.gov/) \n", - "numforecasts": 448, + "numforecasts": 475, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", @@ -14000,34 +13878,61 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", + "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", - "numforecasts": 224, + "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", + "numforecasts": 40, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2034-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "title": "Will the CDU continue to govern Germany after the 2021 elections?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6338/cdu-governs-germany-after-the-2021-elections/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "numforecasts": 22, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[CDU - the Christian Democratic Union of Germany](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) is the major party of the center-right in German politics:\nThe CDU has headed the federal government since 2005 under Angela Merkel, who also served as the party's leader from 2000 until 2018. The CDU previously led the federal government from 1949 to 1969 and 1982 to 1998. Germany's three longest-serving post-war Chancellors have all come from the CDU; Helmut Kohl (1982–1998), Angela Merkel (2005–present), and Konrad Adenauer (1949–1963). The party also leads the governments of six of Germany's sixteen states.\n--[CDU, wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany)\nCDU currently forms a coalition government with [CSU (Christian Social Union)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Social_Union_in_Bavaria), and [SPD (Social Democratic Party)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Democratic_Party_of_Germany). CDU and CSU hold an agreement that CDU does not run candidates in Bavaria, while CSU does not run candidates anywhere besides Bavaria. In forming this alliance, it is not unlikely that CSU may appoint the next chancellor following the elections, even if they win fewer seats than CDU.\nThe 2021 German federal election is expected to be held on 2021-09-26, the date chosen by President Steinmeier. However, there is still a possibility of the snap election at an earlier date.\nAs of the moment of writing this question, the [CDU/CSU union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CDU/CSU) steadily leads in [election polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/). In Vox's Future Perfect series, [Dylan Matthews](https://twitter.com/dylanmatt) [forecasted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) an 80% chance that CDU will continue to govern Germany throughout 2021.\nWill the Chancellor of Germany following the next election be from the CDU/CSU union?\nThis question resolves positive if the Chancellor of Germany is from the CDU or CSU when they are elected after the next Bundestag Election. If they are a member of any other party, the question resolves negative.\nThe election need not happen on 2021-09-26 nor must the chancellor be elected immediately. In the case there is an acting government while parties negotiate to form a formal government, this question will wait to resolve until a new government is formed.\nIn the case an election is scheduled earlier, the question will close 1 day before polls are opened.\n", + "numforecasts": 186, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-25T21:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T22:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14047,22 +13952,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the University of California Berkeley be primarily in-person for Fall 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6367/university-of-california-in-person-fall-2021/", @@ -14106,33 +13995,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "numforecasts": 504, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", @@ -14166,32 +14028,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", + "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", - "numforecasts": 90, + "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", + "numforecasts": 508, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5760/next-conservative-leader-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 160, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-06-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5687/trump-indicted-for-obstruction-of-justice/", @@ -14235,6 +14113,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "A space elevator is a proposed type of planet-to-space transportation system. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator): \nThe main component [of a space elevator] would be a cable (also called a tether) anchored to the surface and extending into space. The design would permit vehicles to travel along the cable from a planetary surface, such as the Earth's, directly into space or orbit, without the use of large rockets. \nThe competing forces of gravity, which is stronger at the lower end, and the outward/upward centrifugal force, which is stronger at the upper end, would result in the cable being held up, under tension, and stationary over a single position on Earth. \nBy contrast, a skyhook is a proposed momentum exchange tether that aims to reduce the cost of placing payloads into low Earth orbit. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyhook_(structure)):\nA heavy orbiting station is connected to a cable which extends down towards the upper atmosphere. Payloads, which are much lighter than the station, are hooked to the end of the cable as it passes, and are then flung into orbit by rotation of the cable around the centre of mass.\nA skyhook differs from a geostationary orbit space elevator in that a skyhook would be much shorter and would not come in contact with the surface of the Earth. A skyhook would require a suborbital launch vehicle to reach its lower end, while a space elevator would not.\nWill either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons, by mass, by the end of 2045?\nThis resolves positively if any planet-to-space transportation system considered by an admin to fit the quoted Wikipedia descriptions of a space elevator or a skyhook, transports payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045. \nThe payload must be transported from the Earth's surface into the Earth's orbit, from the Earth's orbit onto the Earth's surface, or from our Moon into orbit, or from space onto our Moon's surface. \nPositive resolution requires that the sum of all payloads ever transported by a single planet-to-space transportation system exceeds 10 metric tons by the end of 2045.\n", + "numforecasts": 90, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-01-02T02:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2045-07-02T01:57:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the World's GDP be in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1574/what-will-the-worlds-gdp-be-in-2028/", @@ -14251,33 +14156,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", - "numforecasts": 171, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", @@ -14321,6 +14199,103 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4121/will-italy-leave-the-eurozone-before-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "There is lately [some discussion](https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1272371/eu-news-coronavirus-italy-coronabonds-germany-netherlands-polls-italexit-spt) that Italy might leave the Eurozone due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.\nQuestion: Will Italy leave the Eurozone before 2023?\nThis resolves positive if before 2023-01-01, Italy both:\n---Does not use the Euro as its only legal tender (i.e. it uses at least one other currency as their legal tender). \n---Does not have representation in the [European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank). \n", + "numforecasts": 171, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-28T09:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", + "numforecasts": 452, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", + "numforecasts": 192, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", + "numforecasts": 17, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will someone born before 2001 live to be 150?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/353/will-someone-born-before-2001-live-to-be-150/", @@ -14349,75 +14324,32 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/", + "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.\nWill Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ([VTI](https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/performance/vti))?\n(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)\n1--We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges. \n2--If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously. \n3--All prices are in USD. \n4--Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used. \n", - "numforecasts": 189, + "description": "The UK is experiencing its highest number of coronavirus cases, and recently reached its highest single day death figure (1325 on 8 January 2021). A [previous question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5746/uk-second-wave-deadlier-than-first/) on whether the UK's second wave will be more deadly than the first has a community prediction currently sitting at 99%. Will this wave continue to get worse?\nWill the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021?\nThis resolves on the basis of deaths data from the UK government's [COVID-19 dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/deaths). This question will resolve positively if, before the end date of the second wave as defined below, there is a 7-day period over which the Deaths within 28 days of positive test by date reported on the dashboard exceed 14000.\nIf the UK government dashboard is unavailable, resolution will be according to [ourworldindata](https://ourworldindata.org/).\nData updates meaning that more than 6000 previously unrecorded deaths are recorded on a single day are not sufficient for resolution. If such an update occurs, the number of deaths for that day shall be taken to be the number of deaths recorded 7 days prior (to ensure the same day of the week).\nThis question should retroactively close 24 hours before the data update which causes resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 440, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-10T17:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-14T22:59:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the United States Environmental Protection Agency pass a PFAS Maximum Contaminant Level rule for all municipal water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4759/pfas-max-contaminant-levels-in-drinking-water/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "PFAS were first developed in the 1940s by DuPont. By the 1950s, 3M began manufacturing various PFAS (including PFOA and PFOS) for consumer and commercial product applications (including Scotchguard and Teflon). Currently many products are still manufactured that contain PFAS including everything from [food containers](https://chemicalwatch.com/81116/chipotle-defends-biodegradable-packaging-amid-pfas-findings) to firefighting foam to non-stick cookware.\n[PFAS can cause multiple detrimental effects](https://www.hugendubel.info/annotstream/2244006827638/PDF/DeWitt-Jamie-C./Toxicological-Effects-of-Perfluoroalkyl-and-Polyfluoroalkyl-Substances.pdf) including but not limited to reproductive & developmental problems, liver & kidney damage, tumors and immunological effects in laboratory animals. The most consistent findings are increased cholesterol levels among exposed populations.\n[Studies have shown](https://www.cdc.gov/biomonitoring/PFAS_FactSheet.html#:~:text=In%20the%20Fourth%20National%20Report,Survey%20(NHANES)%20since%201999) PFAS to be in the blood serum samples of nearly everyone human tested, every body of water, rain, snow, and even bottled water - all which indicate widespread human exposure.\nAs of September 18, 2020, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) “ToxCast Chemical Inventory” stated that there are [430 different chemicals in the PFAS group](https://comptox.epa.gov/dashboard/chemical_lists/epapfasinv). The EPA collected data on six Perfluorinated Compounds [Third Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule](https://www.epa.gov/dwucmr/third-unregulated-contaminant-monitoring-rule) yet has not proposed any Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) standards since the UCMR3 study.\nThis question resolves positively if the [United States Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/) lists a MCL rule for PFAS in for all sizes of public drinking water systems in the United States by January 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 29, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T20:41:03.669000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 17, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-03-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If a single-payer healthcare system is adopted in the United States, will healthcare spending go down as a fraction of GDP?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3657/if-a-single-payer-healthcare-system-is-adopted-in-the-united-states-will-healthcare-spending-go-down-as-a-fraction-of-gdp/", @@ -14445,22 +14377,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", - "numforecasts": 76, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-14T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/", @@ -14543,56 +14459,72 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Alexei Navalny to become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3416/alexei-navalny-to-become-president-or-prime-minister-of-russia-in-his-lifetime/", + "title": "Will U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6463/us-troops-in-afghanistan-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "[Alexi Navalny](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny) is among the most prominent critics of the Russian government and its president [Vladimir Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin). He has repeatedly run for president, including most recently in [2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Alexei_Navalny_presidential_campaign). Vladimir Putin has served as both president and prime minister of Russia.\nIt may seem far-fetched to imagine Navalny becoming president in the near future (as he has been barred from running for the office). Historically, however, leaders of opposition movements have gained power, as for example was the case with [Nelson Mandela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nelson_Mandela). Indeed, a [large majority](https://www.statista.com/chart/9776/how-russians-feel-about-corruption/) of Russians view corruption (Navalny's signature issue) as a large problem in Russia. \nQuestion: Will Alexi Navalny become president or prime minister of Russia in his lifetime?\nResolution details:\n--- \nResolves positively if Navalny assumes the office of president or prime minister of Russia.\n--- \nResolves negatively if Navalny dies before becoming president of Russia.\n--- \nResolves ambiguously if the nation state of Russia ceases to exist, or if its form of government changes such that it no longer has either a president or a prime minister.\n--- \nAlso resolves ambiguously if Navalny is still alive in 2500 but has not assumed either office.\n--- \nIn the case where there is significant ambiguity about whether or not Navalny has assumed office, the question will only resolve positively if there is credible media reporting that his assumption of office has been recognized by the 4 other permanent members of the UN Security council (US, UK, France, China).\n--- \nIf Navalny is legally declared dead but could potentially be revived (through brain emulation or cryopreservation) this question resolves negatively.\nNote that if Navalny is elected president but dies before assuming office, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 519, + "description": "On February 29, 2020, the U.S. signed the '[US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan](https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf)' with the Taliban. In this peace agreement, the U.S. committed to withdrawing all of its forces from Afghanistan by May 2021.\nU.S. forces [met the first commitment](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/world/asia/afghanistan-us-troop-withdrawal.html) to hit the 8,600 troop count within 135 days.\nU.S. troop count is [presently at 2,500](https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Releases/Release/Article/2473337/statement-by-acting-defense-secretary-christopher-miller-on-force-levels-in-afg/), as per the latest withdrawal phase in mid-January under the Trump administration. This is the lowest troop count for the U.S. since the onset of the war, and looked to project the administration's commitment to the May 1st deadline.\nThe Biden administration [is currently reviewing the peace deal](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55775522) with the aim to decide the appropriate course of action going forward.\nWill U.S. military troops still be in Afghanistan on 2021-05-01?\nThe question will be resolved by confirmation via any official U.S. state organ (e.g. A press report by the U.S. Department of Defence).\n", + "numforecasts": 194, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2076-12-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2500-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-15T22:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T22:01:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "If Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5174/biden-restores-396-tax-bracket-before-2025/", + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", + "numforecasts": 58, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, Republicans and President Trump advocated for lower taxes and reduced the highest tax bracket from 39.6% to 37% effective the 2018 tax year.\nIf Joe Biden is elected president of the US in 2020, will the highest tax bracket be restored to its original 39.6% or higher before 2025?\nThis question resolves:\n---Positive if Biden is elected president for the 2021-2024 term, and the upper tax bracket for US single tax payers is increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Negative if he is elected but the upper tax bracket is not increased to at least 39.6%. \n---Ambiguous if he is not elected President in 2020. \n", - "numforecasts": 229, + "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", + "numforecasts": 175, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-27T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -14623,33 +14555,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "President Trump's claim to have won the election, and his subsequent impeachment, have created tensions in the Republican party of the USA. The Arizona Republican party [censured Flake, Ducey and McCain](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/23/politics/arizona-gop-censure-mccain-flake-ducey/index.html); the South Carolina Republican party [censured Rice](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/30/politics/tom-rice-south-carolina-republicans-censure/index.html). Will the party split by the end of the current session of Congress ([117th; 2021-2022](https://www.congress.gov/search?q={%22source%22:%22legislation%22,%22congress%22:117}&searchResultViewType=expanded))?\nWill at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?\nThe question will resolve to 'yes' if five or more Republican members of the 117th congress all switch to another party. Retiring or simply leaving the Republican Party is not sufficient -- five members must all switch to the same party.\n", - "numforecasts": 175, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will World GDP grow every year until 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2669/will-world-gdp-grow-every-year-until-2025/", @@ -14667,7 +14572,7 @@ } ], "description": "The 2008 financial crisis was [\"considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nAccording to the World Bank (series ID: [NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2017&start=1961&view=chart)), 2009 was the only year since 1961 when the World GDP did not grow (it shrunk by 1.7%).\nQuestion: Will the World GDP grow for each of the next 6 years (2019-2024)?\nEstimates from the World Bank or some other reputable source shall serve for resolution. Exactly 0% growth counts as no growth. Failure to locate a good source after an honest effort resolves ambiguous. Resolution date is set to 2025, when we should get 2024 numbers.\nThis question was inspired by [this related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2621/will-the-us-set-a-new-annual-gdp-growth-rate-record-high-before-2030/) and [that also-related one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2626/future-perfect-2019-series-q4-more-animals-will-be-killed-for-us-human-consumption-in-2019-than-in-2018/).\n", - "numforecasts": 775, + "numforecasts": 777, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-28T00:00:00Z", @@ -14699,7 +14604,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", - "numforecasts": 84, + "numforecasts": 86, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", @@ -14709,40 +14614,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Despite our best efforts, Earth is still the only known planet in the universe to harbor any kind of life. Though plenty of our attention in this hunt has been focused on studying potentially habitable exoplanets, this question is concerned with the likelihood of finding [extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Planetary_habitability_in_the_Solar_System) in our own cosmic backyard.\nWill any conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life, past or present, be discovered within our Solar System by 2050?\nResolution details:\n--- \nTo resolve positive, a scientific consensus must be reached that life exists or has existed anywhere in our Solar System besides Earth, as judged by Metaculus admins. Resolves negative if there is no sufficiently strong evidence for such by 2050.\n--- \nThe life in question can be related to Earth life, i.e. sharing a common origin with us, but must not have been placed there by humans. For example, if we find Europan life that turns out to have shared a common ancestor with Earth life millions or billions of years ago, that’s fine. But if we accidentally or otherwise contaminate Mars with our spacecraft, that won’t count.\n", - "numforecasts": 194, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-03-31T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6544/goog-market-cap-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -14753,18 +14631,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6542/december-2022-production-of-semiconductors/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", - "numforecasts": 160, + "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6541/change-in-degree-of-automation-2020-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 65, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, @@ -14785,32 +14679,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "title": "Will the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5427/tax-on-childlessness-in-russia-before-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "numforecasts": 870, + "description": "The [Tax on childlessness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_on_childlessness) was a natalist policy in the USSR, Poland and Romania during certain periods in the 20th century.\nRecently, several public organizations urged the Russian government to re-enact that, or a similar, policy:\n---[Russia may introduce tax on childlessness](https://investforesight.com/russia-may-introduce-tax-on-childlessness/); \n---[The Ministry of Finance commented on the idea of ​​introducing a tax on childlessness in Russia](https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020-10-12-the-ministry-of-finance-commented-on-the-idea-of-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bintroducing-a-tax-on-childlessness-in-russia.rkvOu1MGPv.html). \nWill the Russian government introduce a tax on childlessness prior to the 2024 presidential election?\nThe question resolves positively if the Russian government introduces, prior to the 2024 presidential election in Russia, either:\n---An explicit tax on childlessness. \n---A tax levied on each person except those with children. \nFor the question to resolve positively, the tax should be active in at least 10 out of 85 [federal subjects](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_subjects_of_Russia) and apply to at least a quarter of all Russian adults under the age of 50.\nThe tax may apply either to married couples or individuals, in both cases the question resolves positively. A tax cut for people who do have children does not count.\nIf the presidential election 2024 doesn't take place, the question resolves on 17 March 2024 12:00 AM, as if the election had happened. \n", + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-16T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-03-16T21:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6238/date-32m-first-covid-vaccine-doses-in-uk/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", + "numforecasts": 399, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-15T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", @@ -14854,6 +14764,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6713/new-us-covid-deaths-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm) that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. [The COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19. \nA plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://github.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/blob/main/data/JHUDeathData/numberOfNewDeaths.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUDeathData/JHU_count_of_deaths.csv).\nData sources and more information:\n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nWe encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27. \nThis question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", + "numforecasts": 125, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "By how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5680/co2-emission-change-from-transport-2020-25/", @@ -14870,6 +14796,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6714/new-us-covid-cases-21-27-march/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The number of new positive SARS-CoV-2 cases can indicate the degree to which the virus is transmitted in a population. If public health officials observe an increase in the number of new cases they may ask, at a federal or state level, to increase test production to measure the degree to which the virus has spread and increase restrictions to prevent spread of the infectious agent. The [US Outpatient Influenza-like illness Surveillance network (ILINet)](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm) has reported on 2021-03-01 that 1.3% of patient visits have influenza-like illness compared to a national baseline of 2.6%. The number of new COVID-19 cases in the US as reported by the JHU CSSE group on 1 March 2021 was 58,810.\nA plot of the current number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/numberOfNewCases.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/JHUCasesData/JHU_newcases_data.csv).\nWhat will be the number of new incident confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in the US beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the number of new confirmed cases beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv). This file records the daily number of cases by county. From this file cases are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new cases per week. The report will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04.\n", + "numforecasts": 92, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-15T18:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-04T18:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will India send their first own astronauts to space?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1434/when-will-india-send-their-first-own-astronauts-to-space/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", + "numforecasts": 225, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", @@ -14886,33 +14844,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.72, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 31, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", @@ -14935,7 +14866,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", - "numforecasts": 67, + "numforecasts": 69, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -14945,6 +14876,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 55, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the atmospheric CO2 concentration be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2563/what-will-the-atmospheric-co2-concentration-be-in-2030/", @@ -14961,6 +14908,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 (2020 USD) or more?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6046/date-1-bitcoin-worth-1-million/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", + "numforecasts": 206, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2090-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6092/consumer-price-index-over-3-by-2024/", @@ -14994,7 +14957,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 5-March, 12-March, 19-March, 26-March\n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -15005,21 +14968,48 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", + "title": "When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], - "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 34, + "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", + "numforecasts": 297, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-10-23T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-04-12T05:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2061-04-12T04:07:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", + "numforecasts": 574, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/", @@ -15064,52 +15054,31 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "title": "Will Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "numforecasts": 103, + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.77, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.22999999999999998, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), founded in 1972, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.alcor.org/about/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nLesswrong user Froolow wrote [a financial analysis of Alcor](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B8Lu238n4ReCcebhP/how-long-will-alcor-be-around). See also [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/) for the Cryonics Insitute.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nWill Alcor go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at Alcor requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with Alcor before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at Alcor facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nAlcor is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by Alcor staff within one year of any report.\nIf Alcor goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that Alcor exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Alcor ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If Alcor changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If Alcor merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", + "numforecasts": 53, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-26T22:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-13T22:30:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6552/when-will-covid-19-fall-to-very-low-ifr/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?", @@ -15128,29 +15097,29 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will Medicare for all be passed if a Democrat is elected president in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3605/will-medicare-for-all-be-passed-if-a-democrat-is-elected-president-in-2020/", + "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "description": "Bernie Sanders appears to have tied for most delegates in the Iowa primary, greatly boosting his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee for president. [Medicare for all](https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/) has been one of his signature issues. Other candidates (including Elizabeth Warren) have also endorsed a version of Medicare for all. Even if Sanders or Warren was elected, however, such a law would face numerous challeges to being passed, primarily in the US Senate where 60 senators would presumably be necessary to overcome a filibuster.\nConditional on the Democratic candidate being elected president of the United States (regardless of whether or not it is Bernie Sanders), will Medicare for All be passed (in their first term)?\nFor the purposes of this question a policy will be considered Medicare for All if it:\n1a) Is widely reported in the media as \"Medicare for All\"\nor\n1b) Covers the Essential Health Benefits as described in Obamacare\n2) Covers all citizens of the United States who currently reside in the USA regardless of age.\n3) Does not require people to pay a individual premium or purchase private insurance to be considered covered.\n3a) This question could still resolve positively if people are allowed (but not required) to have supplemental insurance.\n3b) A plan that requires a modest copay (limited to total payments of no more than $3000/year) to recieve care would still resolve positively\nIf the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump) or another candidate not running as a Democrat wins, this question resolves ambiguously.\nFor example, if Bernie Sanders runs as an independent against Joe Biden and wins, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question will resolve positively when such a law has been passed through congress and signed by the president, regardless of whether or not it takes effect (for example because of legal challenges).\nThis question will resolve negatively if the Democratic candidate is elected, but no such law is passed before the expiration of their first term - either January 20, 2025, or the date that a new President is appointed who is not a Democrat, whichever comes first.\n", - "numforecasts": 131, + "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n", + "numforecasts": 183, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-05T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-20T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z" }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -15170,33 +15139,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5848/election-fraud-myth-persists/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Currently, [according to polling by Reuters/Ipsos](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/half-of-republicans-say-biden-won-because-of-a-rigged-election-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN27Y1AJ), \"about half of all Republicans believe President Donald Trump 'rightfully won' the US election but that it was stolen from him by widespread voter fraud that favored Democratic President-elect Joe Biden\". Despite [media (including Fox News) calling the election for Biden](https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2020/11/07/fox-news-biden-president/), [Trump's court cases failing](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/10/933112418/the-trump-campaign-has-had-almost-no-legal-success-this-month-heres-what-they-ve), [recounts continuing to show Biden winning](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/29/politics/biden-dane-county-wisconsin-recount/index.html), [states officially certifying results](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/arizona-wisconsin-certify-election/2020/11/30/ec161756-3338-11eb-b59c-adb7153d10c2_story.html), [Trump exhausting all legal options](https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/allentown/2020/11/toomey-on-trumps-legal-fight-president-has-exhausted-all-plausible-options.html), and [AG Barr saying no fraud](https://apnews.com/article/barr-no-widespread-election-fraud-b1f1488796c9a98c4b1a9061a6c7f49d), this conspiracy theory still persists.\nSome other prominent political conspiracy theories have lingered around for awhile - as late as 2016, [Morning Consult polling](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/upshot/it-lives-birtherism-is-diminished-but-far-from-dead.html) found that 33% of Republicans still believe that Obama was not born in America - many years after the rumor was started.\nWill the Election Fraud myth persist among the American public for a full year?\nThis question resolves positively if the average of all polls by YouGov, Washington Post, Gallup, PPP, and Morning Consult conducted in November 2021 show that at least 20% of Americans (not just Republicans) think at least one of:\n--- \nthe 2020 election was \"rigged\"\n--- \nthe 2020 election was unfair and/or incorrectly decided (or similar wording) with reference in the question to illegal counting and/or fraudulent ballots (unfair media coverage is not sufficient for inclusion in the average, nor is an unspecified \"unfair\")\n--- \nDonald Trump is the legitimate and/or rightful president\n--- \nJoe Biden is not the legitimate and/or rightful president \n--- \nDonald Trump won in 2020\n--- \nJoe Biden lost in 2020\nThis question resolves positively if the average of those polls do not show more than 20% of Americans holding any of those views.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if there is no such polling conducted in November.\nNovember is defined according to UTC \n", - "numforecasts": 181, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-11T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will AI progress surprise us?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1394/will-ai-progress-surprise-us/", @@ -15240,6 +15182,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 56, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", @@ -15267,22 +15225,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6576/multi-modal-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2031-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will PHP die?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", @@ -15299,6 +15241,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", @@ -15315,6 +15273,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "numforecasts": 68, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", + "numforecasts": 61, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/", @@ -15348,7 +15338,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 187, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -15358,6 +15348,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5908/confirmed-us-covid-deaths-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", + "numforecasts": 468, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4877/when-will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-be-open-sourced-including-for-commercial-use/", @@ -15374,6 +15380,70 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", + "numforecasts": 168, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", + "numforecasts": 60, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n", + "numforecasts": 153, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", + "numforecasts": 162, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", @@ -15406,6 +15476,60 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 82, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.99, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", + "numforecasts": 1312, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-04-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6385/vaccine-doses-administered-germany-by-april/", @@ -15422,6 +15546,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", + "numforecasts": 35, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5808/signatory-to-ban-on-nukes-to-break-treaty/", @@ -15455,7 +15595,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", - "numforecasts": 10, + "numforecasts": 11, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -15465,13 +15605,29 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "numforecasts": 149, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -15481,13 +15637,40 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "numforecasts": 589, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", - "numforecasts": 46, + "numforecasts": 47, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -15497,6 +15680,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", + "numforecasts": 196, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6597/bitcoin-as-payment-method-accepted-by-amazon/", @@ -15524,6 +15723,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6572/change-in-automation-dec-20-jan-30/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 69, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the Harvard admit rate be for the undergraduate class of 2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3622/what-will-the-harvard-admit-rate-be-for-the-undergraduate-class-of-2029/", @@ -15556,6 +15771,76 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "numforecasts": 10, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", + "numforecasts": 36, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", + "numforecasts": 871, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6255/closing-price-igm-on-2030-12-13/", @@ -15599,6 +15884,87 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.08, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", + "numforecasts": 62, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.21999999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "numforecasts": 1108, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.92, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.07999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", + "numforecasts": 24, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", @@ -15642,6 +16008,38 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6675/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-july/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "numforecasts": 41, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6819/percent-efficacy-of-two-dose-jj-vaccine/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", + "numforecasts": 22, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-06-30T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will Metaculus be linked to by 70 sites?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3271/when-will-metaculus-be-linked-to-by-70-sites/", @@ -15777,7 +16175,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 78, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -15793,7 +16191,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -15809,7 +16207,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 73, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -15826,17 +16224,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43999999999999995, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "On 21st January 2021, [it was announced](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/a-statement-from-%c2%a7/) that Glastonbury festival, due to take place in late June, would again be cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThis has prompted discussion about whether any festivals will take place in the UK this year. A BBC article on 23rd January, [\"Will any festivals happen this summer?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55767061), struck a largely pessimistic tone:\nIn the middle of winter, dreaming of summer plans is one of the things that gets you through. Now, more than ever, those dreams are so important to cling on to.\nBut if those dreams involve drinking warm cider in a muddy field and singing your heart out with thousands of others, it's suddenly looking a bit bleak again.\n[Shambala](https://www.shambalafestival.org/) is a four-day festival that takes place at a country estate in England. It has existed for 20 years. Whereas Glastonbury is at the beginning of the festival season and has 200,000 attendees, Shambala is due to take place 26-29th August and [has consistently had attendance of 15,000 since 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shambala_Festival).\nWill UK festival Shambala take place in August 2021?\nIf a Shambala festival takes place in August 2021 with at least 5,000 attendees and with attendees on site for at least 72 hours, this question resolves positively. If no reduction in capacity or length is announced, these conditions will be assumed to be met.\nIf not such festival takes place, this question resolves negatively. This question also resolves negatively if it is publicly announced that Shambala festival will not take place in August 2021. If the question is open when such an announcement is made, the question will retrospectively close 24 hours before the announcement.\nShambala should not be confused with Shambhala Music Festival, which is Canadian.\n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -15868,7 +16266,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -15981,7 +16379,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -16061,6 +16459,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "numforecasts": 73, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6418/the-fed-inflation-targeting-policy-is-success/", @@ -16078,7 +16492,7 @@ } ], "description": "Since 1996 The Fed has defined “price stability” as inflation at 2 percent. It has been the official policy goal since 2012. Fed has targeted 2 percent inflation but inflation expectations have continued to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target. \nIn November 2020 the Fed updated their 2012 monetary policy strategy into 2 percent average inflation targeting: [2020 Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/review-of-monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy.htm)\nCommittee seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time, and therefore judges that, following periods when inflation has been running persistently below 2 percent, appropriate monetary policy will likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time.\nBackground reasoning for inflation targeting in general and for this policy change to average inflation targeting:\n1--[FAQ: Why does the Federal Reserve aim for inflation of 2 percent over the longer run? ](https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm) \n2--[The FRED® Blog: From inflation targeting to average inflation targeting The Fed’s new long-run monetary framework](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2020/11/from-inflation-targeting-to-average-inflation-targeting/) \n3--Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, August 27, 2020 [New Economic Challenges and the Fed's Monetary Policy Review](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200827a.htm). \n4--[Rethinking the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target](https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_20180607_Hutchins-FedInflationTarget.pdf) 2018 Report from the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings with contributions from Lawrence H. Summers, David Wessel, and John David Murray. \n5--Brookings Institution:[What do changes in the Fed’s longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/02/what-do-changes-in-the-feds-longer-run-goals-and-monetary-strategy-statement-mean/) \n6--Brookings Institution:[What is “average inflation targeting”?](https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/30/what-is-average-inflation-targeting/) \nNote: The FOMC’s inflation measure is the core personal consumption expenditures index (core PCE), Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy. Total PCE is too volatile and subject to idiosyncratic shocks for FOMC to use.\nWill the U.S Federal Reserve achieve its new average inflation targeting policy goal?\nFor this question the longer-run inflation is 4 years, starting when the policy changed. \nThis question resolves postive if the annualized core-PCE inflation is between 1.9 - 2.5 percent between 2020-11 and 2023-11. \nExactly: 2023-11 Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) (PCEPILFE) is up between 7.8 and 10.4 percent (inclusive) relative to 2020-11 value. \nThe data source used to resolve the question: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index) [PCEPILFE], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE)\nNormal rounding half up of decimals is used to get tenths (1/10) accuracy. \n", - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", @@ -16088,22 +16502,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", @@ -16255,7 +16653,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", - "numforecasts": 115, + "numforecasts": 117, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-29T22:00:00Z", @@ -16470,7 +16868,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 77, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16513,7 +16911,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2020, following the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) the [unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) spiked to 14.8%. Since then the unemployment rate has declined, finishing the year around 6.7%. This is still much higher than the rate pre-pandemic of 3.5%.\nWill the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov) data. This question will resolve positive if the months Jan-Nov (inclusive) are >= 5.0 for Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate. Currently Dec-20 is 6.7 as of Jan-21. This question should resolve on the basis of BLS's November Employment Situation, released in early December. Historical values can be viewed [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm).\nRelated Questions \n---[Unemployment in the US in 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Minimum US unemployment rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/) \nIf the Civilian Labour Force Unemployment rate drops below 5.0 at any time before the close date, the question will retroactively close at the time of publication.\n", - "numforecasts": 219, + "numforecasts": 220, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", @@ -16529,7 +16927,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine).\nAs of 3 March 2021, 52,855,579 people have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine has also recently begun to be distributed.\nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 1 or More Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 159, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", @@ -16572,7 +16970,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1.\nB.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. The B.1.1.7 variant is the most frequent variant sequenced in the US. As of 1 March, the [CDC has reported](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) 2,506 cases of B.1.1.7 compared to 65 cases of B.1.351 and 10 cases of P.1. One or more cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported in 46 jurisdictions.\nIn response to an increased incidence of sequenced viral samples that are identified as B.1.1.7, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, an increased need for vaccination, and an increased rate of genomic sequencing.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average of the % B.1.1.7 in the US on 27 March 2021 (between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021)?\nThis question will resolve as the 7 day rolling average of % sequences that are B.1.1.7 in the U.S. on 27 March 2021 (i.e. the average percentage between 21 March 2021 and 27 March 2021) at the following website: [https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country](https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?country=United%20Kingdom&country=United%20States&division=California&pango=B.1.1.7&selected=United%20States&selectedType=country). This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 6 April 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 92, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -16588,7 +16986,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16604,7 +17002,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16663,7 +17061,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T07:00:00Z", @@ -16792,7 +17190,7 @@ } ], "description": "US president Trump has declared his intentions to add Antifa to list of terrorist organizations, [tweeting May 31st](https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1267129644228247552):\nThe United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.\nUS Texan Senator Ted Cruz has [similarly been campaigning for this move](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/antifa-cruz-riots-organized-terror-attacks):\nSen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is aiming to highlight the role Antifa and like-minded groups are playing in riots across the country, convening a Senate hearing Tuesday on the issue while alleging that radical left-wing groups are engaging in \"organized terror attacks\" designed to tear down government institutions.\n“Across the country, we’re seeing horrific violence, we’re seeing our country torn apart. Violent anarchists and Marxists are exploiting protests to transform them into riots and direct assaults on the lives and safety of their fellow Americans,” Cruz told Fox News in an interview.\nUnsurprisingly Trump's opponents have opposed this move, and even labelled it impossible. For instance, [in Slate](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/06/antifa-terrorist-organization-designation-trump.html), we can read:\nWhile the president and attorney general may have political motivations for wanting to stigmatize a left-wing movement by tagging it with the terrorist label and thus seek to assign blame for the violence engulfing several U.S. major cities, it is unlikely that Trump can do so within existing legal authorities.\nIn the United States, there are two competent authorities for designating terrorist groups. First, the Department of State can designate groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act. It can also designate both groups and individuals as terrorists under Executive Order 13224. This order was established shortly after Sept. 11 as part of an effort to provide the State and Treasury departments enhanced capability to block terrorists from the U.S. formal financial system.\nHowever, for the State Department to designate a group, it must document that the organization operates overseas, and that the group’s leaders, camps, and operations are based outside of the continental United States. Antifa, by virtue of its domestic presence and lack of any organizational cohesion, would be impossible for the State Department to designate.\nThe Treasury Department can also sanction terrorists per Executive Order 13224. But it can only piggy-back on an already existing designation of a group, typically one that is already labeled by the State Department as a terrorist organization. Without an underlying State Department designation, the Treasury Department can’t act. And, while Treasury has designated a number of domestic-based charities as terrorist entities, those groups were linked to foreign organizations such as Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, Lebanese Hizballah, and al-Qaida.\nSo it appears to be difficult for the Trump administration to accomplish this. Thus, the question is: \nWill Antifa officially be labelled a terrorist organization in the US before 2022?\n---Antifa must be added to an official list of terrorist organizations for this to resolve positively. They must remain on this list for at least seven consecutive days. \n---It must happen before 2022. \n---It can happen under any presidency (winner of 2020 US election). \n---An \"official list is\" one that appears on the public-facing website of a US federal agency. \n", - "numforecasts": 348, + "numforecasts": 353, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -16840,7 +17238,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 44, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -16985,7 +17383,7 @@ } ], "description": "SpaceX has released plans for an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" with the goal (among other things) of sending people to Mars.\nIn typical Elon Musk fashion, the announced timelines are wildly optimistic or aspirational. But Musk and SpaceX do seem very committed to reaching Mars.\nIn another question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030) it is asked if Musk's optimistic timeline will be met, landing people on Mars by 2030.\nThis question sets a scaled-back goal: \nWill SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?\nThis will resolve positive if a SpaceX branded mission, where the primary launch hardware and Mars entry, descent, and landing systems are built by SpaceX, successfully lands on Mars by Jan 1, 2030.\n", - "numforecasts": 1105, + "numforecasts": 1106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-03-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -17045,17 +17443,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The current conflicts between the United States and China - including trade, espionage, international politics, propaganda, \"soft power\" and territorial claims - have [been described as a Cold War](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/07/china-us-war/594793/). \nCould this turn to active warfare (sometimes euphemistically described as \"kinetic conflict\") in the near future? \nSome Australian analysts think so. [Chris Joye writes in the Australian Financial Review](https://www.afr.com/wealth/investing/why-the-risk-of-a-major-power-conflict-is-rising-20200709-p55aji): \nWhen I asked Professor Hugh White about this eight years ago, he handicapped war between China and the US at a 10 per cent probability over the so-called forward planning horizon.\nThe tiny minority of foreign policy and security experts who saw this coming at that time now put the likelihood closer to 20 to 30 per cent.\nMy own best guess is that the chance of a low- or high-intensity kinetic conflict of some kind between China and the US is around 25 to 50 per cent. We ain't going to be exporting much up north if that happens.\nOn the other hand, it could be said that China hawks have predicted 10 of the last 0 wars with China. [In 2014, Gerard Henderson](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/opinion/anus-alarmist-hugh-white-gets-it-wrong-each-time-on-uschina-tensions/news-story/31b270768eaae75b38024a322a0898fa) pointed out Hugh White has repeatedly - if equivocally - predicted wars that have not happened, saying we \"may\" face a naval battle in 2005, shouldn't be \"too surprised\" if the USA and Japan go to war with China in 2013 and in 2014 war is \"a possibility we can't rule out\". \nThus we ask, Will there be active warfare between the United States and China by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if, at some point between now and 31 December 2026, at least two credible news sources (e.g. the Australian Financial Review, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Reuters, Associated Press, etc.) report that the United States and China have exchanged fire, engaged in \"kinetic conflict\", fought a battle, fought a war or otherwise engaged in active warfare (and they are not talking metaphorically/about a \"cold war\").\n", - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -17184,7 +17582,7 @@ } ], "description": "The last time bitcoin hit above $19K USD per bitcoin, [it crashed to below $7K within five months](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/). Given that bitcoin just hit above $19K USD again and a new all time high, would we expect history to repeat itself and we also see Bitcoin crash below $10K sometime in 2021?\nWill the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?\nThis question resolves \"Yes\" if the bitcoin price on [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) drops below $10,000 USD at any point during 2021. This question resolves \"No\" otherwise.\nIf this question resolves positively, this question will close retroactively to two days prior to positive resolution.\nThe time zone for marking the end of year will be UTC.\nIf bitcoin somehow ceases to exist, this question resolves \"No\". \nIf [coinmarketcap.com](http://coinmarketcap.com) ceases to reliably record prices, [https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin](https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin) will be used instead. If both of these sites are unavailable, a different site can be used with the consensus of two Metaculus admins. If no consensus can be reached, this question resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 691, + "numforecasts": 705, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", @@ -17280,7 +17678,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 56, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", @@ -17323,7 +17721,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 7 February 2021, the Minister of Health of the Democratic Republic of the Congo [declared an outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease](https://www.who.int/csr/don/10-february-2021-ebola-drc/en/) (EVD) after the laboratory confirmation of one case in North Kivu Province. The case was an adult female living in Biena Health Zone. To date the source of infection is still under investigation.\n[A third Ebola case this week has been confirmed in Democratic Republic of Congo.](https://news.sky.com/story/ebola-third-case-of-virus-in-a-week-discovered-in-democratic-republic-of-congo-12216373?dcmp=snt-sf-twitter)\nThe case was found in Butembo, a city of over one million people and the epicentre of a major outbreak of the disease that was declared over last June after nearly two years.\nThis new cluster marks the 12th outbreak of Ebola in Congo. Thousands of people have died from the virus in Congo in recent years. An outbreak that began in 2018 and the WHO declared over in June 2020 killed more than 2,000 people.\nAs of February 12 2021, [two people are reported to have died due to Ebola infection](https://www.npr.org/2021/02/11/966759228/second-victim-dies-of-ebola-in-congo-marking-viruss-return?t=1613194153003) in the latest outbreak.\nWill there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively if the WHO, or credible media reports, indicate that at least 1,000 persons have died in 2021 due to Ebola infection.\nNote that this question refers to the total number of Ebola deaths in the year 2021, not in any particular outbreak. If there are multiple outbreaks, deaths from all of them will count towards this question.\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 89, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -17537,7 +17935,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -17784,7 +18182,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 429, + "numforecasts": 430, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", @@ -17800,7 +18198,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -17876,17 +18274,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8200000000000001, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 169, + "numforecasts": 171, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -18004,7 +18402,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Changes in the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 is caused, in part, by how the healthcare system manages infections, differences in populations susceptible to the virus, and adjustments to how the infectious disease is treated. As of 1 March 2021 there are 46,738 people who are currently hospitalized due to COVID-19. The [CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html) that seasonal influenza in the US during the 2019-2020 season was responsible for 38 million illnesses, 18 million medical visits, 405,000 hospitalizations, and 22,000 deaths. Public health officials [may adjust mitigation efforts and/or adjust policies](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/209520) in response to a predicted increase or decrease in expected number of hospitalizations.\nA plot of the current number of new incident adult and pediatric previous day admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 over time can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/numberOfNewHospitlizations.png) and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found [here](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). \nData sources and more information:\n---[Department of Health and Human Service’s report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) \n---[COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---The CDC’s [Hospitalization forecasts website](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/hospitalizations-forecasts.html) \n---[The Coronavirus Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) website](https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalization and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \nWhat will be the number of new incident U.S. adult and pediatric admissions to the hospital with confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the total number of adult plus pediatric previous day admissions with confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the Department of Health and Human Service’s [report of COVID-19 reported patient impact and hospital capacity](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state) for the dates from 2021-03-22 to 2021-03-28, corresponding to the number of hospitalizations from 2021-03-21 to 2021-03-27. Daily updates are [provided by the Department of Health and Human Services](https://healthdata.gov/dataset/covid-19-reported-patient-impact-and-hospital-capacity-state). The total previous day admissions is computed using two variables in this report: previous_day_admission_adult_covid_confirmed and previous_day_admission_pediatric_covid_confirmed and stored in Lehigh University's Computational Uncertainty Lab Github [data repository](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/computationalUncertaintyLab/aggStatModelsAndHumanJudgment_PUBL/main/data/DHShospData/raw_dhs_hospdata.csv). This report, and the resolution criteria, includes data on all 50 US states, Washington DC, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands (53 states and territories). The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).\n", - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 76, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-03T19:00:00Z", @@ -18063,7 +18461,7 @@ } ], "description": "The [federal minimum wage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_the_United_States) in the United States is currently $7.25 an hour, and was most recently changed in 2009.\nThis question resolves positively if at least three reliable media outlets report that the federal minimum wage increased from $7.25 any time before January 1st 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nThis question can be resolved at any time.\n", - "numforecasts": 282, + "numforecasts": 283, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", @@ -18181,7 +18579,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", - "numforecasts": 70, + "numforecasts": 79, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", @@ -18315,7 +18713,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -18358,7 +18756,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 64, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -18487,7 +18885,7 @@ } ], "description": "According to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Earth's average global surface temperature in 2019 was the [“...second warmest since modern record-keeping began in 1880”](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/) and this continues the planet's long-term warming trend, with the last five years being the warmest of the past 140 years. The hottest year on record is 2016.\nWill 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?\nThis will resolve on the basis of an announcement by NASA on whether 2021 is the hottest year on record — more specifically, whether Earth’s average global surface temperature in 2021 will be the hottest in the 1880-2021 time frame.\nIf the NASA (GISS) results are tied with another year, the NOAA numbers will be used to break the tie. If those are tied too, we'll go on to EU's Copernicus. If a tie remains, this resolves ambiguous.\n", - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 228, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -18513,33 +18911,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6616/cryonics-institute-to-go-bankrupt/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[The Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/), founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their [about page](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/).\nA classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In [fact](https://www.hta.gov.uk/law-cryonics),\nEarly attempts at cryonics facilities have previously failed when the organisations went bankrupt. Several facilities existed in the US starting in the 1960s, which often relied on funding from the living relatives of the cryopreserved, and could not maintain conditions when relatives were no longer willing or able to pay. As a result, all but one of the documented cryonic preservations prior to 1973 ended in failure, and the thawing out and disposal of the bodies.\nYou can find more specific information about the history of brain preservation on [this page](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) by Metaculite Mati Roy.\nJeff Kaufman maintains a spreadsheet of cryonics probability estimates, which you can find on [this page](https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-cryonics-probability-estimates).\nSee also [this question for Alcor](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6615/alcor-to-go-bankrupt-before-reviving-people/).\nWill the Cryonics Institute go bankrupt before any of their patients are revived?\nFor the purpose of this question, a \"patient\" is a human body or brain that is being stored by a cryonics organization in the expectation of future revival. The revival of a patient at the Cryonics Institute requires these two conditions.\n1-- \nThe patient must be either restored to normal physiological health or emulated on a computer, as determined by credible media.\n2-- \nThe patient must have been signed up with the Cryonics Institute before their deanimation (or legal death), and must have been preserved at the Cryonics Institute facilities for at least 90% of the duration of their preservation.\nThe Cryonics Institute is said to go bankrupt if credible media reports that they have gone banrkupt, and no credible contradiction of this claim is made by the Cryonics Institute staff within one year of any report.\nIf the Cryonics Institute goes bankrupt before at least one of their patients is revived, then this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\nBy its nature, this question's resolution will be pending indefinitely in the case that the Cryonics Institute exists and has not gone bankrupt. If the Cryonics Institute ceases to exist, but not due to bankruptcy, then this question resolves ambiguously. If the Cryonics Institute changes its name, the new organization is used for resolution as if there was no name change. If the Cryonics Institute merges into another organization, the resulting merged organization is used for resolution. In case of a dispute over the question resolution criteria, if at least one moderator and admin concur that the resolution criteria must change, then it shall. In case of a dispute between admins, a vote in the comment section will determine the correct resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 25, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-03-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will The Economist rank China as a democracy in the Democracy Index?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6377/china-becomes-a-democracy/", @@ -18632,7 +19003,7 @@ } ], "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "numforecasts": 288, + "numforecasts": 289, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -18691,7 +19062,7 @@ } ], "description": "[The Alcubierre drive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive) is a speculative warp drive idea based on a solution of Einstein's field equations in general relativity as proposed by Mexican theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre, by which a spacecraft could achieve apparent faster-than-light travel if a configurable energy-density field lower than that of vacuum (that is, negative mass) could be created.\nRather than exceeding the speed of light within a local reference frame, a spacecraft would traverse distances by contracting space in front of it and expanding space behind it, resulting in effective faster-than-light travel. Objects cannot accelerate to the speed of light within normal spacetime; instead, the Alcubierre drive shifts space around an object so that the object would arrive at its destination more quickly than light would in normal space without breaking any physical laws.\nHowever, there are [a number of technical challenges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcubierre_drive#Difficulties) that may mean that it is either extremely difficult or impossible to create a device that functions as Alcubierre described.\nAlcubierre's original paper can be read here: [The warp drive: hyper-fast travel within general relativity](https://arxiv.org/abs/gr-qc/0009013)\nWill a functional Alcubierre drive device be demonstrated before 2100?\nThis question resolves positively if before January 1, 2100, a credible paper is published in a peer-reviewed journal that details a successful demonstration of a functioning device that works broadly in the manner that Alcubierre described, and that enables a physical object to traverse distances at faster-than-light speeds.\nThis demonstration must take place in 'base reality' (i.e. the universe in which the concept was originally proposed, and in which Metaculus users in January 2021 lived) rather than in any kind of simulated reality or alternative physical universe that is created or discovered after February 12, 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 39, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-27T23:00:00Z", @@ -18756,17 +19127,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):\nI think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.\nIf half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.\nThis question resolves positively if any of the terms \"aging\", \"ageing\", \"anti-aging\", \"anti-ageing\", \"longevity\", \"lifespan\", \"rejuvenation\", or \"life extension\" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research* in any of the following media sources produced between January 1st 2020 and January 1st 2030 UTC:\n1-- \nThe English Wikipedia's \"In the news\" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).\nor\n2-- \n[History.com](http://History.com)'s summary of events for a year in the 2020's.\nor\n3-- \nThe transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.\nIt also resolves positively if:\n4--A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. \nOtherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.\nIn case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.\n* \"longevity research\" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.\n", - "numforecasts": 171, + "numforecasts": 188, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-12T12:00:00Z", @@ -18938,7 +19309,7 @@ } ], "description": "Elon Musk is famous for many things. He is the CEO of Tesla, founder of The Boring Company and the CEO of Neuralink. Yet, perhaps Musk's most ambitious project is SpaceX, which aims to put humans on Mars in 2024 (as of the writing of this question). \nWhereas putting anybody on Mars may already seem ambitious enough, Musk has also talked about perhaps going to the red planet himself. In[ an interview with Axios]( https://www.axios.com/elon-musk-mars-space-x-14c01761-d045-4da0-924b-322fb6a109ce.html) Musk estimated his own chances of going to Mars at 70%.\nIt is asked:Will Elon Musk personally go to Mars?\nThis question resolves positive if Elon Musk is launched on a rocket with the intent of going to Mars. It resolves negative if Elon Musk is declared legally dead before launching on a Mars-bound rocket.\n", - "numforecasts": 421, + "numforecasts": 423, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -19024,7 +19395,7 @@ } ], "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 380, + "numforecasts": 381, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", @@ -19050,22 +19421,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "numforecasts": 679, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", @@ -19098,6 +19453,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", + "numforecasts": 680, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/", @@ -19114,33 +19485,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6478/democratic-president-wins-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.57, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.43000000000000005, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Every 4 years, the United States elects a president with its unique system of [the Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College). A candidate must secure 270 or more electoral college votes out of 538, or be [selected by congress](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHEDXzOfENI) if no candidate recieves more than 269 votes.\nThe [2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) ended with President Donald Trump losing his run for a second term. He immediately and repeatedly made claims the election was rigged and fraudulent, which led to the [January 6 storming of the Capitol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol). Ultimately, the votes were confirmed by Congress and Joe Biden was inaugurated on January 20, 2021.\nBiden faces several challenges entering his presidency, including the [COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus) and [an unemployment rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) of 6.7%, with a [narrow majority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/117th_United_States_Congress) in congress to pass legislation. Biden began his presidency with a [historically high disapproval rating](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of 35%, indicating that we are in a period of high partisanship and [highly competitive elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-a-biden-blowout-didnt-happen-and-why-a-2024-blowout-is-unlikely-too/). On the other hand, politicians generally have an incumbancy advantage, which could mean a likely victory for Biden.\nWill a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?\nThis question will resolve based on which candidate recieves the most votes in the electoral college. It will resolve on the date congress certifies the votes, or when congress selects the president in the case a candidate does not recieve a majority.\n", - "numforecasts": 126, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-11-05T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-21T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/", @@ -19501,33 +19845,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", - "numforecasts": 420, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4841/when-will-blue-origin-send-a-paying-customer-to-space/", @@ -19544,6 +19861,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5730/biden-net-approval-5-through-20-july-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "By most accounts, Joe Biden [has won a fairly convincing victory in the 2020 Presidential election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-pretty-convincing-win-for-biden-and-a-mediocre-performance-for-down-ballot-democrats/), winning at least nine million more votes than Obama's previous record of 69.5 million and an apparent 306 electors. Nevertheless, according to The Atlantic, some Democrats are wondering if [\"maybe Biden was weak, and another candidate might have done better.\"](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/why-biden-won-presidency/616980/) Conservative commenter Liz Peek asserts, [\"Biden is frail, and often suffers mental lapses that many in the media have largely hidden from the public. It will be impossible going forward to disguise what appears to be Biden’s declining mental acuity.\"](https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/524615-biden-win-would-leave-gop-poised-for-2024-comeback)\nAccording to [the FiveThirtyEight Trump approval tracker,](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/) presidents in the era of modern polling have typically enjoyed a honeymoon period, starting at a net approval of around +30 to +50 on Inauguration Day before eventually declining. Maintaining a +5% net Presidential approval throughout the first six months might seem to be a relatively modest achievement; by 538's numbers only Trump, Clinton and Ford would fail this standard. On the other hand, increased levels of polarization could mean this is harder now than it used to be.\nWill Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?\nWill FiveThirtyEight's estimate of Biden's net presidential approval stay at or above +5% at all times during his first six months in office?\nThe question resolves negatively if Biden drops below 5% in the FiveThirtyEight average even momentarily (assuming this can be documented) at any time between noon January 20th 2021 and noon July 20th 2021. If FiveThirtyEight does not publish this number, admins may substitute the best available alternate source at discretion. If the 538 average is available in multiple variants (such as all polls, polls of likely voters, polls of all adults, etc) then Biden must stay ≥5% throughout the time period in all of them. The question resolves ambiguous if Biden does not take office, or leaves office before noon July 20th without his approval having dropped below 5%. It resolves positively if Biden is President, and his net approval ≥5%, throughout the period. \n", + "numforecasts": 421, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-20T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T16:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5721/1kt-nuke-detonated-on-earth-in-2021/", @@ -19551,17 +19895,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[Nuclear weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon) have only been used in warfare on two occasions in world history: [on August 6 and 9 1945 in American attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki), respectively. However, there have been more than 2,000 detonations of nuclear devices since the July 16 1945 [Trinity test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)).\nA tally of verified nuclear detonations can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests).\nAs of November 2020, the most recent confirmed detonation took place on September 3 2017 when [North Korea claimed to have successfully detonated its first hydrogen bomb that yielded 70-280kt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea#Testing). It is debated whether the device was actually a boosted fission weapon rather than an actual staged Teller–Ulam thermonuclear weapon, but qualified experts agree that a nuclear device was successfully detonated, and condemnations were issued by (inter alia) the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and the Russian Federation.\nWill a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?\nThis question shall resolve positively if any nation, group or individual admits conducting a test or other detonation of a nuclear device with a yield equal to or greater than 1 kiloton of TNT, or if the below conditions are satisfied, anywhere on Earth between midnight UTC on 1 January 2021 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2021. Tests or detonations occurring more than 100km above Earth's mean sea level are excluded, as are zero-yield detonations in safety tests and any failures with a yield under 1kt.\nThere have in the past been a number of incidents which are suspected to have been clandestine or undeclared nuclear tests, but for this question we will consider only admitted nuclear tests or detonations, or incidents that are recognized by at least three Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council to have been nuclear tests or detonations. In the event that the the only suspected nuclear tests or detonations are recognized by only two or fewer Permanent Members of the UN Security Council, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 205, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -19577,7 +19921,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", - "numforecasts": 294, + "numforecasts": 295, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", @@ -19679,7 +20023,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_elections):\nThe 2022 United States Senate elections will be held on November 8, 2022, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular election. ... All 34 Class 3 Senate seats are up for election in 2022; Class 3 currently consists of 12 Democrats and 22 Republicans.\nWill the GOP control the senate after the 2022 elections?\nThis resolves positive if, on February 1 2023, the Senate Majority Leader is a Republican.\n", - "numforecasts": 358, + "numforecasts": 360, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", @@ -19712,17 +20056,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.10999999999999999, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "In the last few years, the size of the largest deep learning models has grown enormously. Within the field of natural language processing, the largest models have gone from having 94 million parameters in 2018, to [17 billion parameters](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) in early 2020.\nNow, Microsoft has released a new library DeepSpeed and created a memory efficient optimizer which aid in training extremely large models distributed across GPU clusters. From [their blog post](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/zero-deepspeed-new-system-optimizations-enable-training-models-with-over-100-billion-parameters/),\nThe Zero Redundancy Optimizer (abbreviated ZeRO) is a novel memory optimization technology for large-scale distributed deep learning. ZeRO can train deep learning models with 100 billion parameters on the current generation of GPU clusters at three to five times the throughput of the current best system. It also presents a clear path to training models with trillions of parameters, demonstrating an unprecedented leap in deep learning system technology. [...] With all three stages enabled, ZeRO can train a trillion-parameter model on just 1024 NVIDIA GPUs. \nFor comparison, the current top supercomputer Summit [has 27,648 GPUs](https://devblogs.nvidia.com/summit-gpu-supercomputer-enables-smarter-science/), suggesting that training models with tens of trillions of parameters is already within theoretical reach. \nAlso recently, advances in neural models such as the new [Reformer](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.04451) may enable the ability to train large models that use memory much more efficiently.\nI have chosen 100 trillion because it is [considered by some](https://aiimpacts.org/scale-of-the-human-brain/#Number_of_synapses_in_the_brain) to be the median estimate of the number of synapses in a human neocortex. \nThis question resolves positively if and when a reliable paper, blog post, or any other type of document, is published that reports that a deep learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters was trained before January 1st 2026 (no other details need to be reported except for the number of parameters). Otherwise, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 246, + "numforecasts": 249, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-22T08:00:00Z", @@ -19899,7 +20243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-21T07:00:00Z", @@ -19970,17 +20314,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Primarily due to the COVID-19 Pandemic, US real GDP fell by around 3.5% year-on-year in 2020, according to [data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). The highest year-on-year economic growth rate in US real GDP was in the year 2000, when it grew by roughly 4.13%, year-on-year. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s an 80% chance that US GDP growth in 2021 will set a new record for fastest growth in the 21st century.\nWill US real GDP growth in 2021 set a new record for any previous year in the 21st century?\nThis question resolves positively if year-on-year US real GDP growth in 2021 exceeds 4.127%, according to [BEA data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1). Historical data may further be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/188gkrEgr5UW1Igz7phrnlDaLdMy8Wlo2c5fBWUMzpM4/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 74, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -20007,7 +20351,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the last few months, the star Betelgeuse has [dimmed in the sky](http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13410), prompting some media outlets to speculate that it will soon be observed to go supernova. Some astronomers, such as Phil Plait, have [responded](https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/dont-panic-betelgeuse-is-almost-certainly-not-about-to-explode) by saying that it is unlikely to explode any time soon,\nEven at the prodigious rates it's going through helium, it'll probably be about 100,000 years before it explodes.\nThis question resolves positively if one reliable media outlet reports that the star Betelgeuse has been observed exploding in the sky before 12 AM January 1st, 2030 UTC.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 86, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-30T00:00:00Z", @@ -20087,33 +20431,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. He is also the Republican nominee for the 2020 Presidential Election.\nThis question will resolve positively if:\n---someone other than Trump is sworn in as President in 2021 and \n---Trump becomes the official Presidential nominee for the Republican party in the 2024 election. \nThis question will resolve ambiguously if:\n---Trump is sworn in for a second term in 2021. \n---Trump is not alive by the end of the Republican national convention of 2024. \n", - "numforecasts": 571, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-08-31T06:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "If there is a WW3, what longitude will it start in?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/", @@ -20179,7 +20496,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 156, + "numforecasts": 157, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -20232,6 +20549,33 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n", + "numforecasts": 461, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/", @@ -20260,31 +20604,20 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will a human made spaceship enter the Venusian atmosphere before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/686/will-a-human-made-spaceship-enter-the-venusian-atmosphere-before-2030/", + "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "Every space geek loves Mars. Mars gets [all the robots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_artificial_objects_on_Mars) as well as [all the movies](https://www.ranker.com/list/the-best-mars-movies/all-genre-movies-lists).\nBut whither Venus? Where’s the love for our beautiful goddess neighbor who apparently welcomed the Russian Venera-13 lander by crushing it to death within hours. Informed [speculation on Quora](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-current-condition-of-the-Venera-probe-that-landed-on-the-surface-of-Venus-in-1982) suggests that:\nThe [Venera 13] lander's seals and pressurized chambers were breached the day of the landing, so all of the material and equipment that the Venera was designed to protect was melted and boiled off decades ago.\nYikes. Okay, maybe that's why we don't drop by more often.\nVenus is often compared to a literal hellscape. We know about the surface temperatures that melt lead, the sulfuric acid clouds, the poisonous metal snow, etc.\nBut Venus is also interesting! And the clouds of Venus may be the most [Earthlike environment](https://www.cnet.com/news/nasa-wants-to-build-a-floating-city-above-the-clouds-of-venus/) in the solar system beyond terra firma. \nSo when will we return to our hot, hostile sister planet? Specifically, will a man made spacecraft at least breach Venus’s atmosphere before the 2020’s are out?\nPer this [pessimistic Atlantic article](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/01/venus-lost-generation/513479/): \nA generation has now gone by since the agency set a course for the second planet from the Sun, and with this latest mission opportunity lost, the earliest an expedition there might launch (from some future selection process) would be 2027—nearly 40 years since our last visit.\nRussia and the U.S. are considering a joint mission called [Venera D](https://www.space.com/35333-russia-nasa-venus-mission-venera-d.html), but per [Space.com](http://Space.com):\nIt's still too early to know exactly what Venera-D will look like, what it will do or when the mission will launch. A liftoff in 2025 or 2026 is possible under an \"aggressive\" time line.\nCan we get there before the 2030s? \nResolution is positive if a human-made spacecraft enters Venus's atmosphere prior to Jan 1, 2030, and negative otherwise.\n", - "numforecasts": 460, + "options": [], + "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", + "numforecasts": 66, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-19T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-03-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?", @@ -20303,7 +20636,7 @@ } ], "description": "On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. was strongly encouraging every U.S. state and territory to enable [\"every educator, school staff member, childcare worker to receive at least one shot by the end of the month of March.\"](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2021/03/02/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-administrations-covid-19-vaccination-efforts/) This would make use of the federal pharmacy program.\nWill every U.S. educator, school staff member, and child care worker be able to receive at least one SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose by 31 March?\nThis will resolve on the basis of credible media reports stating that pre-K through 12 educators and staff and child-care workers in the U.S. who want to be vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 are able to get at least their first dose by 31 March 2021. \nIf there are credible media reports indicating that at least 50 educators/school staff/child-care workers in at least 1 state or territory want to get vaccinated but were unable to get their first dose by 31 March, then this resolves negatively.\n5 March edit: For this to resolve negatively, the >= 50 education staff would have had to have tried to make an appointment at least 10 days before the end of the month — so no later than 21 March. If they tried making appointments after 21 March and could not receive their first dose until sometime after 31 March, this would not count toward negative resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 125, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", @@ -20313,22 +20646,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6575/number-of-us-computer-scientists-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", - "numforecasts": 65, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5138/will-the-world-series-of-poker-return-to-a-live-in-person-format-in-2021/", @@ -20481,17 +20798,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as of the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), is, as of writing this question, 75% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with his approval rating higher than his disapproval rating. This is up from the 70% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?\nThis question resolves if [FiveThirtyEight’s average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceeds the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 139, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -20507,7 +20824,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Three COVID-19 vaccines — produced by [Pfizer-BioNTech](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine), and, [Moderna](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine), and [Johnson and Johnson](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine) — have been authorized by the FDA and are being delivered to the U.S. population. The vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech has a reported efficacy of [95%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577), the vaccine produced by Moderna has a reported efficacy of [94%](https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2035389), and the vaccine reported by Johnson and Johnson has a reported efficacy of [66%](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-third-covid-19-vaccine). The Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are two-dose vaccines, while the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is single-dose.\nAs of 3 March 2021, 26,957,804 people have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 4M doses per week of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine are being delivered to the US according to vaccine distribution reports maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. \nPublic health officials can use forecasts of the number of people expected to receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine to (i) better predict incident cases and deaths and (ii) communicate the potential risks of infection to the public. \nData sources and more information:\n---[COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution: The Process](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[Vaccine recommendations from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \n---[CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who receive two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the US on 2021-03-31?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive 2 doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-03-31 as recorded by the [Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-trends). The radio buttons “People Receiving 2 Doses” and “Cumulative” will be selected and the bar corresponding to 2021-03-31 will be accessed. Data is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-04. If the CDC changes how it reports vaccination data, we will provide clarifying language as necessary. For purposes of this question, a person receiving a single-dose vaccine would count as a person having received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.\n8 March edit: on 8 March the CDC's vaccine tracker at [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vac…](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) changed the “receiving 2 doses” figure to \"fully vaccinated” to account for people who receive one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which has been authorized as a single-dose regimen (by contrast, Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna are authorized as two-dose vaccines). This question will resolve on the basis of the new \"fully vaccinated\" figure reported by the CDC.\n", - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T14:20:00Z", @@ -20524,17 +20841,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18999999999999995, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The US 7-day rolling average has stabilized around ~1.5M doses of COVID-19 vaccine administered per day as of the creation of this question.\nWill the 7-day rolling average of COVID vaccine doses administered in the US exceed 3M in 2021?\nResolves to \"yes\" on the day the 7-day average for the US eclipses 3M according to the [Bloomberg Vaccine tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/). Resolves to \"no\" if this does not happen at at any point in 2021.\n", - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 93, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T10:00:00Z", @@ -20674,7 +20991,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 135, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", @@ -20722,7 +21039,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 58, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -21556,7 +21873,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", - "numforecasts": 138, + "numforecasts": 145, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", @@ -21598,29 +21915,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", - "numforecasts": 45, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6586/ai-safety-e-prints-2021-02-14-2031-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", @@ -21630,6 +21931,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6584/alphabet-incs-market-cap-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", + "numforecasts": 46, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a currently unknown social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3866/when-will-a-currently-unknown-social-media-app-reach-one-billion-downloads-worldwide/", @@ -21997,17 +22314,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Europa provides astrobiologists with the best possibility of finding extraterrestrial life within our solar system. Many scientists believe that beneath the icy surface of Europa there lies a [vast saltwater ocean](https://solarsystem.nasa.gov/moons/jupiter-moons/europa/in-depth/). It is because of the presence of this large body of liquid water beneath the surface that scientists believe that Europa may provide insight into the origins of life. \nGalileo Galilei discovered Europa and the other Galilean moons in 1610. In 1979 Voyager 2 gave us our [first closeup image](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/spaceimages/details.php?id=pia00459) of the moon (click [here](https://www.space.com/15498-europa-sdcmp.html) for a complete list of missions to Europa). During the [Galileo Mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/galileo/) (1989-2003) Galileo passed near Europa and provided compelling evidence for the existence of saltwater oceans beneath the icy surface. Then in 2013, the Hubble Telescope supplied evidence of [erupting water plumes](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2013-363) at the surface. \nTwo upcoming missions will provide additional information about the nature of Europa. First, the [Europa Clipper](https://europa.nasa.gov/about-clipper/overview) mission will conduct multiply flybys of the moon in the 2020s. This spacecraft will be equipped with cameras, spectrometers, radar, and magnetometers in order to assess the composition of the surface and the underlying oceans. Second, the European Space Agency’s [JUICE](http://sci.esa.int/juice/) mission (Jupiter ICy moons Explorer) will launch in 2022 and arrive at Jupiter in 2029. Though Ganymede is the primary target of this mission, JUICE will still fly by Europa twice in an effort to ascertain the composition of the surface and underlying subsurface oceans. \nQuestion is resolved as positive if a credible news agency reports that a mission to land a spacecraft on Europa launches by December 31, 2029.\n", - "numforecasts": 139, + "numforecasts": 142, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-08-13T07:00:00Z", @@ -22017,33 +22334,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5039/will-the-eurozone-collapse-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "In response to the COVID-19 crisis, various EU-skeptics are talking about a possible collapse of [the Eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone). For instance, April 7, 2020, Gatestone Institute: [Coronavirus: The Looming Collapse of Europe's Single Currency](https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15856/coronavirus-euro-collapse) quotes:\nAchim Truger, a member of the German Council of Economic Experts, said that he believes that coronabonds are necessary to prevent a collapse of the euro:\n\"All countries in Europe are being hit by the epidemic — Italy and Spain particularly hard. All countries, including Germany, must therefore be able to make the necessary health expenditures and take measures to bridge the economic crisis. This is only possible through additional government debt, and this must be guaranteed to prevent another euro crisis. If the debt loads of Italy and Spain rise sharply, they will be pushed into budget cuts, thus economic, social and political crises, which would ultimately lead to a sovereign debt crisis and a collapse of the euro and the EU. Therefore, there must now be a joint, solidarity-based solution.\"\nThe question: Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?\n---Collapse is defined as either: 1) the closing of [the European Central Bank](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Central_Bank) (ECB), OR 2) the Euro is no longer the de facto primary currency of the main western Eurozone member states defined as Germany, France, and Italy. \n---De facto not primary currency means that less than 50% of economic transactions are conducted using that currency. \n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/", @@ -22120,7 +22410,7 @@ } ], "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "numforecasts": 179, + "numforecasts": 182, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", @@ -22163,7 +22453,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n", - "numforecasts": 210, + "numforecasts": 211, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -22303,7 +22593,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", - "numforecasts": 132, + "numforecasts": 133, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-04T23:00:00Z", @@ -22320,17 +22610,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.41000000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "After many months of deliberation Germany’s [Commission on Growth, Structural Change and Employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Growth,_Structural_Change_and_Employment) (colloquially called “Coal Commission”) finally published the 300 page report on 26 Jan 2019. In it the commission laid out plans on how the country could to entirely phase out its coal-fired power generation by 2038, with distinct markers in-between: \n---Shut down brown coal based power plants by 3 GW and hard coal based ones by 4 GW by 2022; \n---Decrease brown and hard coal based power plants by another 6 and 7 GW respectively by 2030; \n---The last coal-fired power plant shall be shut down in/by 2038, with an option to fast-track this by three years. \nThis falls short of some of the participating activists goals, but is at least a step in the right direction, especially considering some of Europe’s biggest CO2-emitting power plants are in Germany. \nHowever, policies are often under varying outside pressures, and one coalition may think differently than another.\nIn 2018, [37% of Net public electricity in Germany was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal](37% of Net public electricity in Germany in 2018 was generated by burning brown coal and hard coal.). This is down [13 percentage points compared to 2002](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2002). In its place has come wind power, as Germany [has become the World's third largest producer of wind-power worldwide](https://www.allianz.com/en/press/extra/knowledge/environment/100505-top-ten-wind-power-countries.html).\nWill Germany's net public electricity generated by coal (both hard and brown) remain above 1% by 2039?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports that Germany's yearly average net public electricity production generated by coal remains above 1% by (and including) 2039.\nHistorical data on Germany's energy production can be accessed through [energy-charts.de](https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie.htm?year=2019).\n", - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 90, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-27T00:00:00Z", @@ -22470,7 +22760,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "numforecasts": 42, + "numforecasts": 43, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -22588,7 +22878,7 @@ } ], "description": "The French presidential election will be held in April 2022. Marine le Pen is a candidate for the \"Rassemblement National\" (far-right) party.\nIn 2017, Le Pen went to the second round but lost against Emmanuel Macron, with 33.9% of the total vote.\nMore information, including recent polls, is available on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election).\nWill Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?\nResolution is positive if Marine le Pen wins the second round of the 2022 French presidential election and is elected president. If the French presidential is not held in 2022, the question resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", @@ -22614,33 +22904,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", - "numforecasts": 582, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5941/sota-text-to-sql-on-wikisql-2021-06-14/", @@ -22980,7 +23243,7 @@ } ], "description": "In 2019 OpenAI [launched](https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/) OpenAI LP,\na new “capped-profit” company that allows us to rapidly increase our investments in compute and talent while including checks and balances to actualize our mission.\nThe profit cap was intended to ensure that the company did not put profits before its humanitarian mission:\nThe fundamental idea of OpenAI LP is that investors and employees can get a capped return if we succeed at our mission, which allows us to raise investment capital and attract employees with startup-like equity. But any returns beyond that amount—and if we are successful, we expect to generate orders of magnitude more value than we’d owe to people who invest in or work at OpenAI LP—are owned by the original OpenAI Nonprofit entity. [...]\nReturns for our first round of investors are capped at 100x their investment (commensurate with the risks in front of us), and we expect this multiple to be lower for future rounds as we make further progress.\nIf by 2035, a credible media report indicates that OpenAI reached its profit cap for the first round of investors (that is, the funding round in July 2019 led by Microsoft and raising ~$1B), this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 59, + "numforecasts": 60, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-23T07:00:00Z", @@ -23039,7 +23302,7 @@ } ], "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 78, + "numforecasts": 85, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", @@ -23157,7 +23420,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 65, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -23318,7 +23581,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -23828,6 +24091,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n", + "numforecasts": 194, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6439/sota-object-detection-on-ms-coco-2021-06-14/", @@ -23909,7 +24188,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", - "numforecasts": 502, + "numforecasts": 503, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", @@ -24242,7 +24521,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "numforecasts": 236, + "numforecasts": 237, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -24839,17 +25118,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The SARS-CoV-2 virus can mutate and develop new strains. For example, In Early November 2020, [a variant strain was identified in Denmark as having an association with mink farming](https://www.who.int/csr/don/06-november-2020-mink-associated-sars-cov2-denmark/en/). This led to the immediate cull of all Danish farmed mink (more than 17 million) including breeding stock. More recently, on 16 December 2020, the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a [briefing](https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857) on VUI-202012/01, a variant of SARS-COV-2 consisting of 17 mutations, including N501Y, a mutation in the spike protein. The UK government has locked down London and the South East in response.\nThis question asks:\nWill a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?\nThis question will resolve according to credible estimates of the prevalence of the relevant new strain, for example from the WHO, US CDC, or SAGE. If no new strain is identified with the property that immunity does not carry over from previous infection or vaccination, this question will resolve negatively.\nIf coronavirus infection confers partial immunity to the new strain, such that getting the disease is less likely but still possible, this may still count so long as scientific evidence exists (for example in a published paper) that the protection is significantly less for the new strain than the old.\n2 February clarification: A \"significant reduction in immunity\" here is defined as a >=50% difference in the attack rate between strains/variants in seropositive (previously infected) subjects. A potential resolution source might be, for instance, [attack rate data collected from the placebo groups of vaccine trials](https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1355552010158764036). Such data should be presented in a published paper.\n", - "numforecasts": 542, + "numforecasts": 556, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", @@ -25975,7 +26254,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", @@ -26249,7 +26528,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", - "numforecasts": 194, + "numforecasts": 195, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", @@ -26266,17 +26545,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "At present, there is only one EU-wide compulsory system of labelling on animal welfare, which applies to [table eggs](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=LEGISSUM%3A4324376). It defines different production methods (0 = organic egg production 1 = free-range eggs 2 = deep litter indoor housing 3 = cage farming). There are also EU voluntary marketing standards for [poultry meat](https://ec.europa.eu/info/food-farming-fisheries/animals-and-animal-products/animal-products/poultry_en), which includes reference to types of farming.There are currently a dozen different labelling schemes on farm animal welfare in at least six European countries.\nIn its [Farm to Fork Strategy](https://ec.europa.eu/food/farm2fork_en) published in May 2020, the EU Commission referred to labelling as “a central instrument to provide consumers high-quality information, regarding the sustainability level of food production, the nutritional value of food items, as well as consumer information related to animal welfare”. On 15 June 2020, the European Commission established, under the [EU Platform on Animal Welfare](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/eu-platform-animal-welfare_en), a sub-group on animal welfare labelling. The sub-group will assist the Commission in collecting data on previous experiences on animal welfare labelling. The European Commission is going to start a [study on animal welfare labelling in 2021](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/other_aspects/labelling_en), leading to a proposal following this. \nOn December 15 2020, the Council of the European Union on Agriculture and Fisheries adopted a [joint position](https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-13691-2020-INIT/en/pdf) that asks the European Commission to consider the development of a tiered transparent labelling scheme allowing for sufficient incentives for producers to improve animal welfare. \nIn a July 2020 [survey](https://ec.europa.eu/food/sites/food/files/animals/docs/aw_platform_20201103_pres-01.pdf) of 25 of the 27 EU governments, only 15 prefer the implementation of an EU-wide animal welfare label through EU legislation.\nThe [Eurobarometer survey from 2015](https://data.europa.eu/euodp/en/data/dataset/S2096_84_4_442_ENG) showed that 52% of European consumers look for labels that identify products from animal welfare-friendly production systems.\nWill the EU have a mandatory multi-tiered animal welfare labelling scheme in place by 2025?\nThis will resolve positively if by the end of December 31st 2025 a mandatory EU animal welfare label is in force per credible media reporting or the [EC Press corner](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/).\nThe label must be multi-level and clearly distinguish between higher and lower standards. It must be required on all products for at least chickens, pigs, and cows and include information about the entire process of the method of production (rearing, transport, slaughter) . A label similar to prospective labels such as [Haltungsform](https://www.haltungsform.de/) (Germany), Lidl UK’s [method-of-production labelling](https://corporate.lidl.co.uk/sustainability/animal-welfare/mop-labelling) for poultry meat and the [Etiquette bien-être animal](http://www.etiquettebienetreanimal.fr/comprendre-letiquette/comment-lire-letiquette/) (France) can be used as a benchmark. \n", - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T23:00:00Z", @@ -26346,7 +26625,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Donald John Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump), born June 14, 1946, is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality.\nTrump lost the [2020 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, but he has refused to concede defeat. He has made unsubstantiated accusations of electoral fraud, mounted a series of legal challenges to the results, and ordered White House officials not to cooperate in the presidential transition.\nAs of mid-November 2020, [Trump is reportedly planning to run for the presidency again in 2024.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-trump-focuses-on-2024-aides-mull-agenda-for-final-days-11605206862) \nIf Trump were to win the presidency again in 2024 and take office in 2025, he would be only the second man to serve non-consecutive terms as president of the United States, after [Grover Cleveland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grover_Cleveland), who served as the 22nd president from 1885 to 1889 and the 24th president from 1893 to 1897.\nWill Donald Trump be elected president of the United States in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if in 2024, Donald Trump is elected as president of the United States. This requires that he obtains a majority in the electoral college. This question does not require that Trump actually be sworn in as president for a positive resolution.\n", - "numforecasts": 275, + "numforecasts": 276, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-17T23:00:00Z", @@ -27286,7 +27565,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Real GDP Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RL1A225NBEA) averaged 3.3% from 1930 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 8.7% in 1950 and a record low of -3.90% in the second quarter of 2009.\nThis question asks: In any year before Q1 2030, will the US record real GDP annual growth rate of greater than 8.7%, beating the record set in 1950?\nFor the purpose of this question, we shall refer to Real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year, as provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or other reputable sources of economic data.\nEdit: (22 Feb 2019), the question now resolves positively if real GDP in terms of percent change from preceding year exceeds 8.7% instead of resolving positively if annualised quarterly real GDP growth exceeds 13.4%.\n", - "numforecasts": 270, + "numforecasts": 272, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", @@ -27296,22 +27575,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", - "numforecasts": 58, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4970/what-will-be-the-monthly-average-number-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", @@ -27865,22 +28128,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "numforecasts": 160, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will AOC be the Democratic presidential nominee in any of the next three election cycles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5252/aoc-for-president/", @@ -28414,17 +28661,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "[SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com) recently released a detailed plan ([transcription and slides here](http://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-mars-speech-transcript-2016-9/#-52)) to send people to Mars using an \"Interplanetary Transport System\" based on heavily reusable launch boosters, tanker-assisted refueling in low-Earth orbit, and a futuristic interplanetary spaceship. The ship is to traverse deep space and land intact on Mars after a high-speed retro-assisted atmospheric entry. The system will rely on in-situ fuel generation on Mars for return journeys, and it is envisioned that destinations across the Solar System may be within its reach.\nThe timeline has not been set in stone, but Elon Musk [has noted](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/) that if SpaceX \"gets lucky and things go according to plan\", a manned flight could launch in the 2024 window with a landing on Mars in 2025. Subsequent launch windows, which are dictated by the Earth-Mars synodic period, occur at a roughly 2-year cadence. \nThere have been [numerous proposals](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) over the years for landing people on Mars. Perhaps the first one that was both concrete and marginally credible was Wernher von Braun's Marsprojekt of the late 1940s and early 1950s. For the past six decades, trips to Mars have tended to lie 20-30 years in the future. The SpaceX plan is particularly notable for aggressively compressing the timeline.\nWill a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\n", - "numforecasts": 5082, + "numforecasts": 5084, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-10-13T15:39:32Z", @@ -28638,22 +28885,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n", - "numforecasts": 53, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-06-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", @@ -29240,7 +29471,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n", - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 88, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-29T00:00:00Z", @@ -29256,7 +29487,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 49, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", @@ -29266,6 +29497,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n", + "numforecasts": 89, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the United States Food and Drug Administration before January 1 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1621/will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-united-states-food-and-drug-administration-before-january-1-2030/", @@ -29293,22 +29540,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will >100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3509/when-will-100-patients-have-had-part-of-their-tooth-tooth-enamel-or-root-canal-regenerated-by-stem-cell-therapy/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n", - "numforecasts": 89, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-02T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-01-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "After an AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/", @@ -31217,7 +31448,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk) is an engineer and the founder, CEO, CTO and chief designer of SpaceX, among other ventures.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX) is an American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. It was founded in 2002 with the goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.\n[The SpaceX Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system is a fully-reusable, two-stage-to-orbit, super heavy-lift launch vehicle under development by SpaceX since 2012, as a privately-funded private spaceflight project.\nSpaceX could potentially launch commercial payloads using Starship no earlier than 2021. In April 2020, [NASA selected a modified crew-rated Starship system](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions/) as one of three potential lunar landing system design concepts to receive funding for a 10-month long initial design phase for the NASA [Artemis program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program).\nMusk has stated that the [Apollo program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program) astronauts, who visited the moon between 1969 and 1972, are personal heroes of his, and that [they inspired him to create SpaceX.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P8UKBAOfGo&ab_channel=TimofeyPyshnov) As of December 2020, no human has set foot on the moon since Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt left the lunar surface on December 14, 1972.\nMusk has acknowledged a personal desire to experience space travel. Asked in a December 2020 interview when his first trip to orbit would take place, [Musk stated that it would be \"possibly in two or three years,\"](https://youtu.be/AF2HXId2Xhg?t=751) and has previously stated that if he has to die, [he would prefer to die on Mars rather than on Earth... \"Just not on impact.\"](https://www.vanityfair.com/news/tech/2013/03/elon-musk-die-mars)\nAs of late 2020, [Elon Musk is the 2nd-richest person on Earth](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/elon-musk-net-worth-bill-gates-second-richest-tesla-2020-11-1029832827), with substantial capacity to privately fund passion projects if he so chooses.\nWill Elon Musk personally set foot on the moon by 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if before 1 January 2030, Elon Musk has personally set foot on the lunar surface. Musk must stand on the surface of the moon, outside any landing system that delivered him there.\nThis question resolves negatively if Musk does not stand on the moon's surface before 1 January 2030.\nUTC time shall be used for this question. Musk need not travel on any SpaceX system for a positive resolution; any outcome in which Musk stands on the lunar surface before 1 January 2030 triggers positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 115, + "numforecasts": 116, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T23:00:00Z", @@ -31609,7 +31840,7 @@ } ], "description": "Currently, the [political status of The Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan) (Taiwan) is disputed. Many governments, notably the People's Republic of China (PRC), maintain that the Republic of China (ROC) is an illegitimate government. \nThis question resolves positively if at least five reliable media outlets report that the ROC is legally recognized by the PRC by January 1st 2050. Recognition is generally considered valid if it is declared by law, or declared through a large international body such as the United Nations. Otherwise the question resolves negatively.\n", - "numforecasts": 228, + "numforecasts": 229, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", @@ -32012,7 +32243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.\nMany electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. \n[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): \nWhile most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) \n---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n", - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-26T07:00:00Z", @@ -32022,22 +32253,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", - "numforecasts": 229, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a US consumer be unable to purchase a Cavendish banana at a major US grocery chain on 2029-12-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3386/will-a-us-consumer-be-unable-to-purchase-a-cavendish-banana-at-a-major-us-grocery-chain-on-2029-12-31/", @@ -32065,6 +32280,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", + "numforecasts": 229, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the real GDP/capita of the USA be in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4689/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-joe-biden-is-elected-president/", @@ -32081,33 +32312,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nAssume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, a therapy is developed which at least two peer reviewed published scientific articles report extends the average human expectancy at 70 years old by at least 4 years.\n(In America, the current [life expectancy from 70](https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html) is about 15.5 years.)\nA \"therapy\" cannot be a recommendation to diet or exercise. However, a therapy can be a prescription drug taken regularly, a combination of drugs, a series of surgeries, or any other such procedure that is not currently a standard medical recommendation for 70 year olds. For the therapy to count, there must be credible evidence that if all 70 year olds received the therapy, their expected lifespans would go up by at least 4 years on average. Therefore, it is not enough that it extends the lives of some subset of 70 year olds.\nLongevity escape velocity is said to be achieved if more than one half of 70 year olds who take the therapy within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years. In that case, this question resolves positively. If such a therapy is developed but more than half of such 70 year olds are not alive 50 years later, then this question resolves negatively.\nIf no such therapy is developed before 2100, this question resolves ambiguously.\nThe date of development of the therapy is the date of the publishing (anywhere it is published) of the first peer reviewed paper that reports the aforementioned life expectancy results of that therapy.\n", - "numforecasts": 85, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2150-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5991/us-commercial-real-estate-vacancy-q2-2021/", @@ -32360,6 +32564,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n", + "numforecasts": 202, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/", @@ -32376,22 +32596,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 199, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-20T21:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-03-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will there be a breakthrough in the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1655/when-will-there-be-a-breakthrough-in-the-treatment-of-hard-to-treat-cancers/", @@ -33004,6 +33208,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "numforecasts": 71, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/372/will-human-brain-emulation-be-the-first-successful-route-to-human-level-digital-intelligence/", @@ -33021,7 +33241,7 @@ } ], "description": "In the quest for \"strong\" Artificial Intelligence, defined here as digital intelligences rivaling or surpassing that of humans, a number of potential path have been discussed. Among them is \"brain emulation,\" in which the physical functioning of a human brain is directly simulated, at some level of detail, in a digital computer. \nIn an interesting recent book, [The Age of Em](https://www.amazon.com/Age-Em-Work-Robots-Earth/dp/0198754620), Robin Hanson explores the potential dynamics of human society assuming such \"Ems\" can be created, and that this occurs prior to the advent of other forms of strong AI. (See also a [recent post by Hanson](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2016/11/brains-simpler-than-brain-cells.html) discussing the relative timing of different AI paths.)\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of such simulation: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated, the necessary computations (and data gathering) span many orders of magnitude depending upon the level of detail required. Significant intellectual effort and funding is being directed toward understanding the Brain well enough to simulate it, for example in the massive [Blue Brain Project](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Brain_Project), but there is no clear consensus as to how much progress has been made toward the ultimate goal. See for example this [NYT editorial with a skeptical evaluation of brain emulation](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/opinion/sunday/will-you-ever-be-able-to-upload-your-brain.html?&_r=1&mtrref=www.brainpreservation.org&gwh=F7EC8C30CF7572E7C4416895098C6633&gwt=pay&assetType=opinion), and this [response by the Brain Preservation Foundation](http://www.brainpreservation.org/why-brain-emulation-is-coming-sooner-than-many-think-response-to-dr-miller-editorial/)\nTo gather thinking about this and track how the relative probabilities of \"Ems\" vs. other types of AIs evolve with time, we ask here:\nWill the first human-comparable digital intelligences be simulated human brains? \nResolution is positive if the effort to create a viable (functioning, lasting, sane, etc.) emulated human, based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation), succeeds before another form of human-level digital intelligence. The latter will be defined as a digital entity capable of equalling or surpassing most or all core human cognitive capabilities. No view is taken as to the timeline for either effort except that a resolve date of 2060 is set, and resolution is ambiguous if neither effort has succeeded by then.\n(Edit 10/20/18 to state that it resolves ambiguous rather than negative in the event of no AGI by 2060.)\n", - "numforecasts": 423, + "numforecasts": 425, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-11-06T21:09:16Z", @@ -33031,22 +33251,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Assuming some humans are alive, what will be the birthdate of the oldest living human on January 1st 2200?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4110/assuming-some-humans-are-alive-what-will-be-the-birthdate-of-the-oldest-living-human-on-january-1st-2200/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 71, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2130-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/", @@ -33085,7 +33289,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-29T07:00:00Z", @@ -33095,6 +33299,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "numforecasts": 95, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will a Science Fiction work originally written and published in Spanish by 2029 win any of the great international awards that recognize great authors in this genre?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4849/will-a-science-fiction-work-originally-written-and-published-in-spanish-by-2029-win-any-of-the-great-international-awards-that-recognize-great-authors-in-this-genre/", @@ -33122,22 +33342,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6299/nlo-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2030-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "numforecasts": 95, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of Polio?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3353/when-will-the-who-certify-the-worldwide-eradication-of-polio/", @@ -33229,33 +33433,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5462/erin-otoole-to-be-pm-of-canada-before-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.27, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.73, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "The [44th Canadian federal election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/44th_Canadian_federal_election) will take place on or before October 16, 2023, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The latest possible date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the [Canada Elections Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Elections_Act), which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.\nSince the current government is a minority government, the election may be held before the scheduled date if Parliament is dissolved by the Governor General of Canada due to a motion of no confidence in the government or by a recommendation of the Prime Minister of Canada for a snap election.\nErin Michael O'Toole, born January 22, 1973, is a Canadian politician serving as leader of the Official Opposition of Canada and leader of the Conservative Party of Canada since August 24, 2020. He previously served as Minister of Veterans Affairs in 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper and has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for Durham since 2012.\nOn policy issues, O'Toole supports gradually eliminating the federal deficit, defunding the CBC's TV and digital English-language operations, simplifying federal taxes, allowing provinces to not have a carbon tax, pipeline construction, a \"CANZUK\" agreement, getting \"tough on China\", and keeping abortion and same-sex marriage legal.\nWill Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if at any point before 1 January 2024, Erin O'Toole holds the office of Prime Minister of Canada. It resolves negatively if this does not happen.\nIn the event that a federal election is due to take place before this question closes, the question shall be closed 24 hours before polls open.\nHolding the position of Prime Minister–Designate does not count. \nFurther, being the Acting Prime Minister does not count: O'Toole must formally hold the office of Prime Minister of Canada for a positive resolution. \n", - "numforecasts": 55, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-20T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/labour-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", @@ -33315,22 +33492,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "numforecasts": 60, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the best marathon time completed before 2035, in seconds, according to Guinness World Records?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4949/what-will-be-the-best-marathon-time-completed-before-2035-in-seconds-according-to-guinness-world-records/", @@ -33353,7 +33514,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "options": [], "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", - "numforecasts": 161, + "numforecasts": 170, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z", @@ -33422,22 +33583,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", - "numforecasts": 33, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/", @@ -33707,7 +33852,7 @@ } ], "description": "Nord Stream 2 is a gas pipline connecting Russia and Germany. Importantly, it will bypass Ukraine, with whom Russia has had troubled relations in the recent past. Germany has been repeatedly pressured to stop the Nord Stream 2 project, both by the US and most recently in light of the attempted assassination of Russian dissident [Alexei Navalny](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/28/europe/navalny-aide-interview-intl/index.html). Nonetheless, Germany has insisted that the project is purely economic and will go [forward](https://tass.com/economy/1194837).\nWill Nord Stream 2 be completed (before 2025)?\nThe question resolves positive if Nord Stream 2 is completed and makes at least one commercial delivery of natural gas. It resolves negative if this event does not occur by January 1, 2025. Or if the project is declared abandoned, canceled, destroyed or is unlikely to be completed in the near future for another reason.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president of Russia.\n", - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", @@ -33798,22 +33943,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the highest level of annual GDP growth in the US before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved over the 2020 to 2030 period (inclusive).\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n", - "numforecasts": 148, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/", @@ -34325,7 +34454,7 @@ } ], "description": "[Consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consciousness) is a concept hard to define. Wikipedia states that consciousness at its simplest is \"awareness or sentience of internal or external existence\". And that despite centuries of analyses, definitions, explanations and debates by philosophers and scientists, consciousness remains puzzling and controversial, being \"at once the most familiar and most mysterious aspect of our lives\".\nThis question will not attempt to define consciousness or solve the so called [hard problem of consciousness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_problem_of_consciousness). \nInstead this question simply asks will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\nResolution will be based on the conversation with the first AGI that Metaculus team will have access to. \nMetaculus team should ask the AI:\n1--Are you conscious? \n2--Should the question \"Will one of the first AGI claim to be conscious?\" on Metaculus resolve positive or negative? \nThis question will resolve no sooner than the question \"[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\". The standard for AGI will be the same as in that question.\n", - "numforecasts": 100, + "numforecasts": 101, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-18T22:00:00Z", @@ -34694,33 +34823,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "[Longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) is a hypothetical situation in which life-extending medicine extends life\nlonger than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nWill artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity (if it is ever achieved)?\nAn anti-aging therapy is said to lead to longevity escape velocity if more than one-half of 70-year-olds who take it within 5 years of its development are still alive after 50 years.\nFor the purposes of this question, the date of development of the therapy is the date in which the therapy is first given to human subjects. \nThis question resolves positively if, before an anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is first developed, an AI achieves generally superhuman performance across virtually all human activities of interest or an AI limited to answering questions achieves reliably superhuman performance across virtually all questions of interest (the criterion for superintelligence is the same as the one used in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4123/after-an-agi-is-created-how-many-months-will-it-be-before-the-first-superintelligence/)).\nSuccessful creation of either type of artificial superintelligence would presumably be extremely obvious and uncontroversial, with a great amount of media coverage and scientific attention. However, if there is significant disagreement over whether a given apparent achievement resolves the question, it will be determined by Metaculus moderator.\nIf no anti-aging therapy that leads to longevity escape velocity is developed before this question's resolve date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "numforecasts": 77, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2200-01-01T23:34:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2300-01-01T23:36:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a space elevator successfully be built by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/917/will-a-space-elevator-successfully-be-built-by-2100/", @@ -34807,22 +34909,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "numforecasts": 61, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", @@ -35730,22 +35816,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", - "numforecasts": 246, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will NASA's SLS first launch a person to the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/", @@ -35762,6 +35832,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", + "numforecasts": 250, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Moore's Law end by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/608/will-moores-law-end-by-2025/", @@ -35806,7 +35892,7 @@ } ], "description": "Iran has currently been [accused of violating](https://apnews.com/452a336123d742718027f219f6dd256f) the JCPOA (the Iran Nuclear Deal) and seeks to build nuclear arms. \nWill Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?\nQuestion will resolve with the Iranian Regime credibly stating it has a nuclear weapon or a weapon test, as judged by media reports.\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to constitute a nuclear detonation.\nFor the purpose of this question, no missiles are required to carry the nuclear weapons (e.g. a nuclear warhead alone is sufficient for positive resolution).\nThe deliberate detonation of nuclear weapons primarily for non-offensive engineering, mining or other civilian purposes (on Earth or in Space) do trigger positive resolution.\nPurchase of or gift of nuclear weapon to Iran will resolve this question as \"Yes\". \n", - "numforecasts": 272, + "numforecasts": 273, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-20T22:00:00Z", @@ -36273,33 +36359,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will at least 9 of the 12 states hit hardest by COVID-19 in 2020 be states that voted for Trump in 2016?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3875/will-at-least-9-of-the-12-states-hit-hardest-by-covid-19-in-2020-be-states-that-voted-for-trump-in-2016/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "description": "This question will resolve positive if at least 9 of the 12 states with the most COVID-19 deaths per capita in 2020 (as reported by the CDC) are among the states that voted for Trump in the 2016 presidential election.\nFor purposes of this question, 30 states out of 50 are considered to have voted for Trump in the 2016 election, which is 60% or 7.2 out of 12. They are: \nAlaska, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana,Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Alabama (We won’t count the second congressional districft of Maine which may not have readily accessible health statistics). ([source](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election))\nThis question resolves according to the best numbers published by the CDC as of 2021-03-15, as judged by Metaculus.\n", - "numforecasts": 537, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-11-15T03:14:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-03-15T02:15:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6320/usas-gdpc-growth-in-2020-2029/", @@ -36999,22 +37058,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "options": [], - "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", - "numforecasts": 187, - "stars": 3, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2959/when-will-boris-johnson-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom/", @@ -37063,6 +37106,22 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will inflation be in the US in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "options": [], + "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", + "numforecasts": 189, + "stars": 3, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5682/new-ev-bus-registration-2025/", @@ -37300,7 +37359,7 @@ } ], "description": "Humans have devised many ways of assessing other humans' intelligence, and forcing people to participate in such measures. University entrance exams are one of the most familiar, inflicted on countless high school students each year as standardized measures of academic competence and promise. Recently, these exams have begun the target of AI and machine learning projects.\nAccording to a [report by Engadget](https://www.engadget.com/2016/11/16/japanese-ai-tokyo-university-fail/), Japan’s National Institute of Informatics had been working on an AI since 2011 with the final objective of passing the entrance exam for the University of Tokyo, tentatively by March 2022. However, a recent [report](https://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/japanese-artificial-intelligence-gives-up-on-university-of-tokyo-admissions-exam/) has revealed that the institute will be terminating the project because of its AI's inability to fully understand the broad context of the entrance exam questions.\nMore recently, on September 21, 2015, the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2) [announced in a paper](http://geometry.allenai.org/assets/emnlp2015.pdf) that it created an AI system called [GeoS](http://geometry.allenai.org/) that can solve SAT geometry questions \"as well as the average 11th-grade American student.\" According to [this story](http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/09/150921095150.htm) GeoS \"uses a combination of computer vision to interpret diagrams, natural language processing to read and understand text, and a geometric solver to achieve 49 percent accuracy on geometry questions from the official SAT tests. If these results were extrapolated to the entire Math SAT test, the computer roughly achieved an SAT score of 500 (out of 800), the average test score for 2015.\" Although AI2 initially focused GeoS on solving plane geometry questions, it hopes to move to solve the full set of Math SAT questions by 2018.\nThis is not an easy feat; however it may be significantly more difficult to actually do decently well on such an exam, including all sections. We ask:\nBy end of 2025, will an AI system achieve the equivalent of 75th percentile on the full mathematics section of an SAT exam comparable to those circa 2015? \nResolution is by credible media report or published paper. The system must be given only page images, and trained on exams that do not include any questions from the scored test. Exams will count as long as the topics and difficulty is broadly comparable to the 2015 exams.\n", - "numforecasts": 711, + "numforecasts": 716, "stars": 3, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-08-14T07:00:00Z", @@ -37977,12 +38036,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6862745098039215, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.3137254901960784, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -37997,22 +38056,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, + "probability": 0.5192307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4380952380952381, + "probability": 0.4423076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38027,12 +38086,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5544554455445545, + "probability": 0.5346534653465347, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.44554455445544555, + "probability": 0.4653465346534653, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38047,12 +38106,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38067,47 +38126,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.29906542056074764, + "probability": 0.29090909090909095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.6355140186915887, + "probability": 0.6454545454545455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38122,12 +38181,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38142,12 +38201,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38162,12 +38221,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38202,12 +38261,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38222,12 +38281,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.900990099009901, + "probability": 0.8910891089108911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.10891089108910891, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38262,78 +38321,78 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4862385321100917, + "probability": 0.4666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.2293577981651376, + "probability": 0.22499999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.08256880733944953, + "probability": 0.07499999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06422018348623854, + "probability": 0.06666666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.024999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.024999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.016666666666666663, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carlos Menchaca", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Loree Sutton", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Shaun Donovan, Kathryn Garcia, Dianne Morales, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Curtis Sliwa, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?", @@ -38382,12 +38441,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38422,12 +38481,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38462,12 +38521,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38592,12 +38651,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38642,12 +38701,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38662,52 +38721,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24 or 25", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26 or 27", - "probability": 0.1588785046728972, + "probability": 0.10891089108910891, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28 or 29", - "probability": 0.3644859813084112, + "probability": 0.3465346534653465, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or 31", - "probability": 0.25233644859813087, + "probability": 0.26732673267326734, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "32 or 33", - "probability": 0.13084112149532712, + "probability": 0.13861386138613863, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38722,12 +38781,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -38742,88 +38801,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.4473684210526315, + "probability": 0.4454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3508771929824561, + "probability": 0.29090909090909084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.043859649122807015, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.026315789473684206, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.04545454545454544, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.04545454545454544, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Angela Merkel", + "probability": 0.04545454545454544, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Olaf Scholz", + "probability": 0.027272727272727264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.018181818181818177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"). \nShould that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, Jens Spahn, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Ralph Brinkhaus" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Jens Spahn, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Ralph Brinkhaus" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?", @@ -38832,17 +38891,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.5140186915887851, + "probability": 0.5046728971962617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.2336448598130841, + "probability": 0.21495327102803738, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38897,88 +38956,88 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.24999999999999994, + "probability": 0.23853211009174305, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.1442307692307692, + "probability": 0.13761467889908252, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09615384615384613, + "probability": 0.09174311926605502, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.09615384615384613, + "probability": 0.09174311926605502, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.057692307692307675, + "probability": 0.06422018348623852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.057692307692307675, + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.03846153846153845, + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.03846153846153845, + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.03846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, + "probability": 0.036697247706422007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitt Romney", + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.019230769230769225, + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.019230769230769225, + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Ted Cruz, Mike Pence, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", @@ -38987,7 +39046,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -38997,7 +39056,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39007,7 +39066,7 @@ }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -39032,37 +39091,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "33 or fewer", - "probability": 0.044642857142857144, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.26785714285714285, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.3482142857142857, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or 41", - "probability": 0.16964285714285712, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42 or 43", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39077,37 +39136,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.49504950495049505, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.24038461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39122,12 +39181,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39162,12 +39221,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39202,12 +39261,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39222,12 +39281,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39262,67 +39321,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.3364485981308411, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.26168224299065423, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.2336448598130841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05607476635514018, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39487,83 +39546,83 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5357142857142857, + "probability": 0.495798319327731, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.3482142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.38655462184873945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.01680672268907563, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Belden Batiste", + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claston Bernard", + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Troy Carter, Karen Peterson, Chelsea Ardoin, Belden Batiste, Claston Bernard, Gary Chambers, Harold John, Christopher Johnson, Brandon Jolicoeur, Lloyd Kelly, Greg Lirette, Mindy McConnell, Desiree Ontiveros, Jenette Porter, Sheldon Vincent Sr." + "optionsstringforsearch": "Troy Carter, Karen Peterson, Gary Chambers, Chelsea Ardoin, Belden Batiste, Claston Bernard, Harold John, Christopher Johnson, Brandon Jolicoeur, Lloyd Kelly, Greg Lirette, Mindy McConnell, Desiree Ontiveros, Jenette Porter, Sheldon Vincent Sr." }, { "title": "Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?", @@ -39572,52 +39631,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8867924528301886, + "probability": 0.8952380952380952, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39632,12 +39691,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39652,58 +39711,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.5277777777777777, + "probability": 0.5181818181818181, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24545454545454545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.10185185185185185, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.09999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.054545454545454536, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Suga Yoshihide", + "probability": 0.03636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET)\nNote: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are \"Xi\", \"Suga\", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Suga Yoshihide, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Moon Jae-in, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Kim Jong-un, Suga Yoshihide, Xi Jinping, Moon Jae-in, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" }, { "title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?", @@ -39712,12 +39771,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39732,12 +39791,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6274509803921569, + "probability": 0.6237623762376238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.37254901960784315, + "probability": 0.37623762376237624, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39752,52 +39811,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "probability": 0.18095238095238095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.13392857142857142, + "probability": 0.15238095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.18749999999999997, + "probability": 0.19047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.21428571428571425, + "probability": 0.19999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.17857142857142858, + "probability": 0.15238095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.08928571428571429, + "probability": 0.07619047619047618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39812,52 +39871,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 53", - "probability": 0.898148148148148, + "probability": 0.8878504672897195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 to 57", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 to 61", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 65", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 69", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "70 to 73", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 77", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 81", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "82 or more", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39872,47 +39931,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.34615384615384615, + "probability": 0.3214285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.3365384615384615, + "probability": 0.31249999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.16346153846153846, + "probability": 0.15178571428571427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.03571428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.02678571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -39927,58 +39986,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.16999999999999998, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.11999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.039999999999999994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter \"S\".\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Félix Tshisekedi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Paul Kagame" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune, Muhammadu Buhari, Uhuru Kenyatta, Abiy Ahmed, Emmerson Mnangagwa, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, Cyril Ramaphosa, Nana Akufo-Addo, Félix Tshisekedi, Paul Kagame" }, { "title": "Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?", @@ -39987,12 +40046,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40047,12 +40106,12 @@ }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40077,7 +40136,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40087,17 +40146,22 @@ }, { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Leibowitz", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Susan Davies", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40110,30 +40174,25 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Deborah Feinstein", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Jon Sallet, Deborah Feinstein, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Rebecca Slaughter, Steven Sunshine, Terrell McSweeny, Dave Gelfand, Jon Leibowitz, Susan Davies" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jonathan Kanter, Renata Hesse, Jon Sallet, Sonia Pfaffenroth, Jon Leibowitz, Susan Davies, Rebecca Slaughter, Steven Sunshine, Deborah Feinstein, Terrell McSweeny, Dave Gelfand" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?", @@ -40142,7 +40201,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40227,58 +40286,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.4205607476635513, + "probability": 0.4285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.12149532710280371, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.09345794392523363, + "probability": 0.12380952380952379, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.08411214953271025, + "probability": 0.10476190476190474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.07619047619047617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.06542056074766354, + "probability": 0.06666666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.06542056074766354, + "probability": 0.06666666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, + "probability": 0.04761904761904761, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are \"Xi\" and \"Suga\", respectively.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Emmanuel Macron, Justin Trudeau, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Justin Trudeau, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Jair Bolsonaro, Cyril Ramaphosa, Vladimir Putin, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", @@ -40287,12 +40346,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40322,38 +40381,38 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6407766990291263, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.6470588235294118, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.1262135922330097, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.0679611650485437, + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Malcolm Kenyatta, Conor Lamb, Madeleine Dean, Jim Kenney, Joe Sestak" + "optionsstringforsearch": "John Fetterman, Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta, Madeleine Dean, Jim Kenney, Joe Sestak" }, { "title": "How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?", @@ -40362,52 +40421,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06730769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23076923076923075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23076923076923075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.17307692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40457,12 +40516,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40497,12 +40556,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5148514851485149, + "probability": 0.5247524752475248, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.48514851485148514, + "probability": 0.4752475247524752, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40517,68 +40576,68 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.39999999999999997, + "probability": 0.5925925925925924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.18095238095238095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.0857142857142857, + "probability": 0.1296296296296296, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.0648148148148148, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Bianchi", + "probability": 0.0648148148148148, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.05714285714285714, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009259259259259257, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.009259259259259257, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.009259259259259257, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Jones", + "probability": 0.009259259259259257, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Sarah Bianchi, Ann O'Leary, Chris Lu, Gene Sperling, Martha Coven, John Jones, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, Sonal Shah, Neera Tanden" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Ann O'Leary, Sarah Bianchi, Chris Lu, Gene Sperling, Martha Coven, Sonal Shah, Neera Tanden, Heather Boushey, Jared Bernstein, John Jones" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", @@ -40607,7 +40666,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1M", - "probability": 0.1509433962264151, + "probability": 0.11320754716981131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40617,12 +40676,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.05M to 1.1M", - "probability": 0.24528301886792453, + "probability": 0.25471698113207547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.1M to 1.15M", - "probability": 0.1320754716981132, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40642,12 +40701,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.3M to 1.35M", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.35M to 1.4M", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40667,52 +40726,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 or 51", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52 or 53", - "probability": 0.3214285714285714, + "probability": 0.34615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 or 55", - "probability": 0.5803571428571428, + "probability": 0.5384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 or 57", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or 59", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 or 61", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 or 63", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "64 or 65", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 or more", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40730,11 +40789,6 @@ "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Darrell Steinberg", "probability": 0.07, @@ -40742,7 +40796,12 @@ }, { "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adam Schiff", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -40768,7 +40827,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below.\nShould no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Adam Schiff, Darrell Steinberg, Goodwin Liu, Xavier Becerra, Rick Chavez Zbur, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Rob Bonta, Darrell Steinberg, Goodwin Liu, Adam Schiff, Xavier Becerra, Rick Chavez Zbur, Jeff Rosen, Diana Becton" }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?", @@ -40777,52 +40836,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "70 or fewer", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.13084112149532712, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.11214953271028036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.18811881188118812, + "probability": 0.18691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.2336448598130841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 to 94", - "probability": 0.16831683168316833, + "probability": 0.1588785046728972, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "95 or more", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40837,12 +40896,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40857,12 +40916,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -40877,58 +40936,58 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5922330097087378, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.5504587155963302, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.12844036697247707, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Rutte", + "probability": 0.10091743119266054, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.0679611650485437, + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch.\nPredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the \"Settlement Source\"), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position.\nShould the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source.\nIn the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Mark Rutte, Andrej Babiš, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Angela Merkel, Andrej Babiš, Mark Rutte, Mario Draghi, Alexander Lukashenko, Pedro Sánchez, Boris Johnson, Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Emmanuel Macron" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?", @@ -40937,68 +40996,68 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.41904761904761906, + "probability": 0.5490196078431373, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.21904761904761905, + "probability": 0.20588235294117646, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.18095238095238095, + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hernando de Soto", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Verónika Mendoza, Hernando de Soto, Keiko Fujimori, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Rafael López Aliaga, George Forsyth, Verónika Mendoza, Keiko Fujimori, Hernando de Soto, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?", @@ -41007,52 +41066,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.18867924528301888, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.2830188679245283, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.40566037735849053, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41107,37 +41166,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "11 or 12", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13 or 14", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15 or 16", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17 or 18", - "probability": 0.8155339805825242, + "probability": 0.8867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19 or 20", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.0660377358490566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21 or 22", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41152,52 +41211,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.04854368932038835, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.10679611650485436, + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.18446601941747573, + "probability": 0.1509433962264151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.20388349514563106, + "probability": 0.20754716981132074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.20388349514563106, + "probability": 0.23584905660377356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.1553398058252427, + "probability": 0.18867924528301888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.0679611650485437, + "probability": 0.0660377358490566, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41212,53 +41271,53 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.6380952380952382, + "probability": 0.6634615384615384, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.20952380952380953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.18269230769230768, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "name": "Jake Ellzey", + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katrina Pierson", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sery Kim", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lydia Bean", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shawn Lassiter", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary.\nShould no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Jake Ellzey, Brian Harrison, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter, Dan Rodimer" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Brian Harrison, Jake Ellzey, Dan Rodimer, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter" }, { "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?", @@ -41267,17 +41326,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41302,38 +41361,38 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Shambaugh", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rahm Emanuel", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rahm Emanuel", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, David Shambaugh, Charlene Barshefsky, Dan Kritenbrink, Rahm Emanuel, Claire McCaskill" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicholas Burns, David Shambaugh, Charlene Barshefsky, Claire McCaskill, Dan Kritenbrink, Rahm Emanuel" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?", @@ -41342,7 +41401,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41351,8 +41410,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Geoff Duncan", - "probability": 0.05, + "name": "Chris Carr", + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41361,12 +41420,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.04, + "name": "David Perdue", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "David Perdue", + "name": "Geoff Duncan", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -41378,7 +41437,7 @@ ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Geoff Duncan, Kelly Loeffler, Chris Carr, David Perdue, Brian Kemp" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Doug Collins, Herschel Walker, Chris Carr, Kelly Loeffler, David Perdue, Geoff Duncan, Brian Kemp" }, { "title": "Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?", @@ -41387,28 +41446,28 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.7358490566037735, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.7636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.09433962264150944, + "probability": 0.09090909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "South Carolina", + "probability": 0.09090909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.054545454545454536, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. \nEvents run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and \"beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nThe timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market.\nShould two or more states hold a primary election on the same calendar day, this market shall resolve for the state ranked first when qualifying states are ordered alphabetically.\nAdditional contracts identifying states not listed at the time of launch of this market may be added at any time prior to settlement.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 03/09/2021 12:40 PM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the following shall not be considered when resolving this market:\n* Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and\n* \"Beauty contest\" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded\n", "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Iowa" + "optionsstringforsearch": "New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Iowa" }, { "title": "Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?", @@ -41417,12 +41476,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.31999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41457,27 +41516,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41512,17 +41571,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -41577,12 +41636,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41597,37 +41656,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "38 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5277777777777777, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "39", - "probability": 0.2037037037037037, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40", - "probability": 0.14814814814814814, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41642,52 +41701,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 votes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.058823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.30392156862745096, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41702,12 +41761,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41722,12 +41781,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41742,12 +41801,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.8571428571428571, + "probability": 0.9117647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -41756,35 +41815,125 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Tishaura Jones, Cara Spencer" }, { - "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021", - "address": "0xc36Ac0B35CfC88a7F1433058042D10DFcCd7628F", - "description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Letitia James", + "probability": 0.3627450980392157, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kathy Hochul", + "probability": 0.2647058823529412, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Cuomo", + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thomas DiNapoli", + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Suozzi", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bill de Blasio", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alessandra Biaggi", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jumaane Williams", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Kathy Hochul, Andrew Cuomo, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Thomas DiNapoli, Andrew Yang, Tom Suozzi, Bill de Blasio, Alessandra Biaggi, Jumaane Williams" }, { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", + "title": "Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9020675104560266242928658490359193", + "probability": "0.8210843425606883932577026603711056", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.09793248954397337570713415096408066", + "probability": "0.1789156574393116067422973396288944", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "743", + "numforecasts": "86", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.04230439517024041202188761379533177", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9576956048297595879781123862046682", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "136", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.590714245983359374033906060938728", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.409285754016640625966093939061272", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1098", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -41796,184 +41945,70 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9417195914487910114324226613628884", + "probability": "0.9404923421274491912575869598563209", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.05828040855120898856757733863711156", + "probability": "0.05950765787255080874241304014367906", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1126", - "stars": 4, + "numforecasts": "1211", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3707686099913996115047668729330381", + "probability": "0.9000917694479315732807625228160966", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6292313900086003884952331270669619", + "probability": "0.0999082305520684267192374771839034", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "91", - "stars": 4, + "numforecasts": "746", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01303004504875397478684467389823031", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9869699549512460252131553261017697", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "options": [], + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1", + "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7145359660504512760901211975188015", + "probability": "0.2653722700132592071193972157990358", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2854640339495487239098788024811985", + "probability": "0.7346277299867407928806027842009642", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "749", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5949757931089654702534487833108707", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4050242068910345297465512166891293", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "60", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01387094277300396838380358793614142", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9861290572269960316161964120638586", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "3697", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4651522225544767235661767619034977", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5348477774455232764338232380965023", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "759", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3973484856384877270794592594966717", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6026515143615122729205407405033283", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "38", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9989036600273357211489800871031293", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.001096339972664278851019912896870658", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "676", + "numforecasts": "98", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -41985,19 +42020,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.7659792299796475948127206110163418", + "probability": "0.7298930612036890560025667805575824", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.2340207700203524051872793889836582", + "probability": "0.2701069387963109439974332194424176", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "73", + "numforecasts": "85", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk" }, + { + "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.35432149199383195961631776417634", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.64567850800616804038368223582366", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "821", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.01154405211189743827135156638705084", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9884559478881025617286484336129492", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "3810", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3992180768566974816348527785427362", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6007819231433025183651472214572638", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "40", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021", @@ -42006,40 +42104,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4849327758683133103611689091360621", + "probability": "0.5186374815653130703780627007855618", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5150672241316866896388310908639379", + "probability": "0.4813625184346869296219372992144382", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "172", + "numforecasts": "180", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2949935117694452647058285346824288", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7050064882305547352941714653175712", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "72", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", @@ -42048,37 +42125,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05425375669298964829973220365160608", + "probability": "0.05235204328927104384398080690325785", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9457462433070103517002677963483939", + "probability": "0.9476479567107289561560191930967421", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "426", - "stars": 4, + "numforecasts": "460", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on March 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-march-15-2021", + "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9620005079085840774763336740396634", + "probability": "0.7645639315269544210625576398861445", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.03799949209141592252366632596033662", + "probability": "0.2354360684730455789374423601138555", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3375", + "numforecasts": "186", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42090,38 +42167,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.08274234437160027517750193450775061", + "probability": "0.08639576439906160345569679883924252", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9172576556283997248224980654922494", + "probability": "0.9136042356009383965443032011607575", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "289", - "stars": 4, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6100979356357447676774497953351822", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3899020643642552323225502046648178", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "4724", - "stars": 4, + "numforecasts": "296", + "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { @@ -42132,16 +42188,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.08129153595237744973294799368691154", + "probability": "0.07912744676147613200988215797057122", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9187084640476225502670520063130885", + "probability": "0.9208725532385238679901178420294288", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "52", + "numforecasts": "61", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6378336067386002818693056840263355", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3621663932613997181306943159736645", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4879", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42153,42 +42230,107 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1649157285360285221066994045625896", + "probability": "0.1710012762395096492854638276142472", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8350842714639714778933005954374104", + "probability": "0.8289987237604903507145361723857528", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "35", + "numforecasts": "39", "stars": 4, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", - "address": "0x6b56111517Dc033B9481B087baBb7458776f3683", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.580310119601644467086386388930093", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.419689880398355532913613611069907", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "numforecasts": "408", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", - "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2369102904781910210045405816592945", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7630897095218089789954594183407055", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [], - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "numforecasts": "1264", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Texas", + "probability": "0.3822268185332019571567270535991622", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Florida", + "probability": "0.4841158144450835226246633130930288", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "California", + "probability": "0.1336573670217145202186096333078089", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "129", + "stars": 4, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Texas, Florida, California" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.05895633696239021853329046475585481", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9410436630376097814667095352441452", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "73", + "stars": 3, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "How many new H-1B visa applications submitted by the \"Big 5\" tech companies will the U.S. grant in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?", @@ -42272,32 +42414,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $400 billion", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.235, + "probability": 0.188, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", - "probability": 0.3775, + "probability": 0.43200000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", - "probability": 0.295, + "probability": 0.306, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $775 billion", - "probability": 0.0425, + "probability": 0.034, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "4", - "numforecasters": "4", + "numforecasts": "5", + "numforecasters": "5", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion" }, @@ -42392,8 +42534,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "91", - "numforecasters": "85", + "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42414,8 +42556,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "141", - "numforecasters": "119", + "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasters": "120", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42501,22 +42643,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.16010000000000002, + "probability": 0.1675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3186, + "probability": 0.319, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.30760000000000004, + "probability": 0.3066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.1681, + "probability": 0.1612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -42525,8 +42667,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "119", - "numforecasters": "104", + "numforecasts": "121", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than -0.25, Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive, More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25, More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5, More than 0.5" }, @@ -42575,32 +42717,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0479, + "probability": 0.048600000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3015, + "probability": 0.30269999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3299, + "probability": 0.3281, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.1956, + "probability": 0.1957, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.1252, + "probability": 0.1249, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "118", - "numforecasters": "109", + "numforecasts": "119", + "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million" }, @@ -42612,32 +42754,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 26,000", - "probability": 0.044199999999999996, + "probability": 0.0426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0919, + "probability": 0.0885, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000", - "probability": 0.21539999999999998, + "probability": 0.2148, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000", - "probability": 0.3546, + "probability": 0.35259999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 32,000", - "probability": 0.2938, + "probability": 0.3015, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "44", - "numforecasters": "38", + "numforecasts": "45", + "numforecasters": "39", "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive, More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000, More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000, More than 32,000" }, @@ -42649,22 +42791,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 800", - "probability": 0.1307, + "probability": 0.1276, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 800 and 4,000", - "probability": 0.4285, + "probability": 0.4341, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", - "probability": 0.3003, + "probability": 0.29960000000000003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", - "probability": 0.1103, + "probability": 0.1085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -42673,8 +42815,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", - "numforecasters": "98", + "numforecasts": "125", + "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 800, Between 800 and 4,000, More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000, More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000, More than 100,000" }, @@ -42723,17 +42865,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "111", - "numforecasters": "78", + "numforecasts": "113", + "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42818,8 +42960,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "271", - "numforecasters": "178", + "numforecasts": "273", + "numforecasters": "180", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -42831,27 +42973,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Before February 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.038599999999999995, + "probability": 0.038, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive", - "probability": 0.109, + "probability": 0.10779999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.2447, + "probability": 0.24239999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "After November 17, 2021", - "probability": 0.6077, + "probability": 0.6118, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "200", - "numforecasters": "126", + "numforecasts": "202", + "numforecasters": "127", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021" }, @@ -42863,32 +43005,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 59%", - "probability": 0.1323, + "probability": 0.1315, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19269999999999998, + "probability": 0.1916, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.2644, + "probability": 0.2637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%", - "probability": 0.2772, + "probability": 0.2802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 80%", - "probability": 0.1334, + "probability": 0.133, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "187", - "numforecasters": "153", + "numforecasts": "189", + "numforecasters": "154", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 59%, Between 59% and 66%, inclusive, More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%, More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%, More than 80%" }, @@ -42900,32 +43042,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 15%", - "probability": 0.062400000000000004, + "probability": 0.063, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1565, + "probability": 0.1637, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%", - "probability": 0.3235, + "probability": 0.3233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%", - "probability": 0.2999, + "probability": 0.295, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 21%", - "probability": 0.1578, + "probability": 0.155, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "117", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 15%, Between 15% and 17%, inclusive, More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%, More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%, More than 21%" }, @@ -42946,7 +43088,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", + "numforecasts": "162", "numforecasters": "124", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -46782,17 +46924,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "32", - "numforecasters": "26", + "numforecasts": "40", + "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -46809,27 +46951,27 @@ }, { "name": "Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "36", - "numforecasters": "32", + "numforecasts": "54", + "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 14.5 million, Between 14.5 million and 16.0 million, inclusive, More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million, Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive, More than 19.0 million" }, @@ -46841,37 +46983,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $25 billion", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "21", - "numforecasters": "19", + "numforecasts": "32", + "numforecasters": "29", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $25 billion, Between $25 billion and $35 billion, inclusive, More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion, Between $45 billion and $55 billion, inclusive, More than $55 billion, Robinhood Markets will not trade publicly before 1 September 2021" }, @@ -46892,8 +47034,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "28", - "numforecasters": "25", + "numforecasts": "37", + "numforecasters": "33", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -46905,7 +47047,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $75 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -46930,12 +47072,12 @@ }, { "name": "Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "45", - "numforecasters": "33", + "numforecasts": "47", + "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion, Coinbase will not trade publicly before 30 October 2021" }, @@ -46952,22 +47094,22 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.87, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "84", - "numforecasters": "64", + "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only detonate a nuclear device, Yes, only launch an ICBM, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -46988,7 +47130,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "41", + "numforecasts": "42", "numforecasters": "32", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47001,17 +47143,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 150,000", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47030,8 +47172,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "93", - "numforecasters": "50", + "numforecasts": "103", + "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, 550,000 or more" }, @@ -47043,22 +47185,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 15,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47092,8 +47234,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "72", - "numforecasters": "33", + "numforecasts": "78", + "numforecasters": "35", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000 but fewer than 95,000, 95,000 or more" }, @@ -47115,17 +47257,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47154,8 +47296,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "170", - "numforecasters": "66", + "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 100,000, Between 100,000 and 200,000, inclusive, More than 200,000 but fewer than 300,000, Between 300,000 and 400,000, inclusive, More than 400,000 but fewer than 500,000, Between 500,000 and 600,000, inclusive, More than 600,000 but fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 800,000, inclusive, More than 800,000 but fewer than 900,000, 900,000 or more" }, @@ -47192,22 +47334,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000", - "probability": 0.59, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47221,8 +47363,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "251", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "280", + "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 70,000,000, Between 70,000,000 and 75,000,000, inclusive, More than 75,000,000 but fewer than 80,000,000, Between 80,000,000 and 85,000,000, inclusive, More than 85,000,000 but fewer than 90,000,000, Between 90,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 100,000,000, Between 100,000,000 and 105,000,000, inclusive, More than 105,000,000 but fewer than 110,000,000, Between 110,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000" }, @@ -47239,22 +47381,22 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47283,8 +47425,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "158", - "numforecasters": "59", + "numforecasts": "175", + "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4,000, Between 4,000 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 8,000, Between 8,000 and 10,000, inclusive, More than 10,000 but fewer than 12,000, Between 12,000 and 14,000 inclusive, More than 14,000 but fewer than 16,000, Between 16,000 and 18,000 inclusive, More than 18,000 but fewer than 20,000, 20,000 or more" }, @@ -47305,7 +47447,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "120", + "numforecasts": "121", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47318,12 +47460,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.79, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47332,7 +47474,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "67", + "numforecasts": "68", "numforecasters": "38", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2 or more" @@ -47354,8 +47496,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", - "numforecasters": "340", + "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasters": "344", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47391,8 +47533,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "310", - "numforecasters": "242", + "numforecasts": "321", + "numforecasters": "247", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 4, Between 4 and 8, Between 9 and 13, Between 14 and 18, More than 18" }, @@ -47413,8 +47555,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "326", - "numforecasters": "294", + "numforecasts": "334", + "numforecasters": "298", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47435,8 +47577,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "192", - "numforecasters": "170", + "numforecasts": "198", + "numforecasters": "174", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47453,12 +47595,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47472,8 +47614,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "223", - "numforecasters": "172", + "numforecasts": "230", + "numforecasters": "175", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000" }, @@ -47509,7 +47651,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "61", + "numforecasts": "62", "numforecasters": "24", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $0.50, Between $0.50 and $1.00, inclusive, More than $1.00 but less than $2.50, Between $2.50 and $5.00, inclusive, More than $5.00" @@ -47522,17 +47664,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.4%", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47546,8 +47688,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "139", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "143", + "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.4%, Between 5.4% and 5.9%, inclusive, More than 5.9% but less than 6.6%, Between 6.6% and 7.1%, inclusive, More than 7.1%" }, @@ -47559,17 +47701,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -47579,11 +47721,11 @@ }, { "name": "More than 2.500", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "106", + "numforecasts": "107", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.000, Between 1.000 and 1.500, inclusive, More than 1.500 but less than 2.000, Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive, More than 2.500" @@ -47610,33 +47752,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "106", - "numforecasters": "51", + "numforecasts": "109", + "numforecasters": "52", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Newsom will be recalled, Yes, but Newsom will not be recalled, No" }, - { - "title": "Will be the end-of-day price of a Dogecoin on 15 March 2021 be higher as compared to the end-of-day price on 15 February 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1938-will-be-the-end-of-day-price-of-a-dogecoin-on-15-march-2021-be-higher-as-compared-to-the-end-of-day-price-on-15-february-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Originally created as a joke, the Dogecoin cryptocurrency has seen an incredible rise in value due to pushes made on Reddit and elsewhere ([Dogecoin](https://dogecoin.com/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-11/dogecoin-s-creator-is-just-as-baffled-as-you-are-about-its-rise)). The outcome will be determined using the last price dated in calendar 15 March 2021 (PT) as reported by Coindesk ([Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/price/dogecoin)). The last reported price for Dogecoin for 15 February 2021 was $0.058727.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "255", - "numforecasters": "74", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Which will happen next regarding the price of a bitcoin?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1937-which-will-happen-next-regarding-the-price-of-a-bitcoin", @@ -47659,8 +47779,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", - "numforecasters": "305", + "numforecasts": "437", + "numforecasters": "311", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -47681,7 +47801,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "68", + "numforecasts": "69", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47703,7 +47823,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "144", + "numforecasts": "147", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47725,7 +47845,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "171", + "numforecasts": "177", "numforecasters": "72", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47747,7 +47867,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "84", + "numforecasts": "85", "numforecasters": "50", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47769,8 +47889,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "188", - "numforecasters": "109", + "numforecasts": "191", + "numforecasters": "110", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47791,8 +47911,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "numforecasters": "131", + "numforecasts": "166", + "numforecasters": "132", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47823,8 +47943,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", - "numforecasters": "113", + "numforecasts": "159", + "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only SpaceX, Yes, only Virgin Galactic, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -47845,7 +47965,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasts": "149", "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -47887,7 +48007,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "128", + "numforecasts": "130", "numforecasters": "51", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship" @@ -47900,17 +48020,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "139", - "numforecasters": "83", + "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47922,17 +48042,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "103", - "numforecasters": "69", + "numforecasts": "106", + "numforecasters": "70", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47953,8 +48073,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "252", - "numforecasters": "106", + "numforecasts": "258", + "numforecasters": "108", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -47985,8 +48105,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "226", - "numforecasters": "138", + "numforecasts": "232", + "numforecasters": "139", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" }, @@ -47998,7 +48118,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $200 million", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48008,12 +48128,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48022,8 +48142,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "138", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $200 million, Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive, More than $500 million but less than $1 billion, Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive, More than $1.75 billion" }, @@ -48093,8 +48213,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "190", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48115,8 +48235,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "136", - "numforecasters": "86", + "numforecasts": "140", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48137,8 +48257,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "228", - "numforecasters": "136", + "numforecasts": "236", + "numforecasters": "138", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48146,7 +48266,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a8cbc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6dbe8cfc7c7ccc2ddcccfc5cdc6dc86cbc7c597dbddcac2cdcbdc95f9ddcddbdcc1c7c68d9a98ebc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#85e6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaebf6c5e2eaeae1eff0e1e2e8e0ebf1abe6eae8baf6f0e7efe0e6f1b8d4f0e0f6f1eceaeba0b7b5c6e9e4f7ece3ece6e4f1eceaeb). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -48159,8 +48279,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "344", - "numforecasters": "188", + "numforecasts": "349", + "numforecasters": "190", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48182,21 +48302,21 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 June 2021", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "328", + "numforecasts": "336", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -48209,17 +48329,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "7 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 8 and 14", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 15 and 21", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48233,8 +48353,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "348", - "numforecasters": "98", + "numforecasts": "369", + "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "7 or fewer, Between 8 and 14, Between 15 and 21, Between 22 and 28, 29 or more" }, @@ -48255,8 +48375,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "150", - "numforecasters": "111", + "numforecasts": "151", + "numforecasters": "112", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48277,7 +48397,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "242", + "numforecasts": "244", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48290,16 +48410,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48312,17 +48432,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 226 seats", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 226 seats and 299 seats", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "300 seats or more", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.56, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48331,8 +48451,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "160", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "164", + "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 226 seats, Between 226 seats and 299 seats, 300 seats or more, Russian State Duma elections will not be held before 20 September 2021" }, @@ -48344,12 +48464,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48358,7 +48478,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "72", + "numforecasts": "73", "numforecasters": "35", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the PSRM will win the most seats, Yes, and the PSRM will tie or not win the most, No" @@ -48385,7 +48505,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "167", + "numforecasts": "170", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Between 18 March 2021 and 17 June 2021, Between 18 June 2021 and 17 September 2021, Not before 18 September 2021" @@ -48398,16 +48518,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "92", + "numforecasts": "94", "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48430,21 +48550,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "219", + "numforecasts": "221", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $75 billion, Between $75 billion and $100 billion, inclusive, More than $100 billion but less than $125 billion, Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive, More than $150 billion" @@ -48466,7 +48586,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "159", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48515,7 +48635,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "257", + "numforecasts": "258", "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48528,17 +48648,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "238", - "numforecasters": "88", + "numforecasts": "240", + "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48564,28 +48684,6 @@ "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Before 15 March 2021, will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1892-before-15-march-2021-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-of-iran-and-the-united-states-either-in-iran-or-at-sea", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high ([AP](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-iran-coronavirus-pandemic-baghdad-ali-khamenei-de61647fe1796de76dc718f8933690c9), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-06/iran-tests-suicide-drones-amid-its-tense-standoff-with-trump), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55530366)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "362", - "numforecasters": "216", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (AMC), the parent company of AMC Theatres, file for bankruptcy?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1893-when-will-amc-entertainment-holdings-inc-amc-the-parent-company-of-amc-theatres-file-for-bankruptcy", @@ -48608,7 +48706,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasts": "185", "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" @@ -48621,7 +48719,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the most valuable in the world", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -48631,11 +48729,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasts": "203", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the most valuable in the world, No, but the most valuable in the United States, No" @@ -48644,7 +48742,7 @@ "title": "Which team will win the World Cup qualifying match between Nicaragua and St. Lucia?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1885-which-team-will-win-the-world-cup-qualifying-match-between-nicaragua-and-st-lucia", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#096a65687b606f606a687d6066677a496e66666d637c6d6e646c677d276a6664367a7c6b636c6a7d34587c6c7a7d6066672c3b394a65687b606f606a687d606667). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", + "description": "Nicaragua is scheduled to face St. Lucia in a first round World Cup qualifying match on 24 March 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)).\nVersión en Español: \nPregunta: ¿Qué equipo ganará el partido de clasificación entre Nicaragua y Santa Lúcia para el Mundial de Fútbol?\nInformación adicional: Nicaragua va a enfrentarse con Santa Lúcia en la primera rueda de clasificación para el Mundial de Fútbol el 24 de marzo de 2021 ([CONCACAF](https://www.concacaf.com/en/world-cup-qualifying-men/schedule-results-world-cup-qualifying-men#tab_team=rounds)). La versión en español de esta pregunta ha sido incluida sólo a efectos informativos, y en situaciones donde existe una diferencia de interpretación entre las versiones en inglés y español, prevalecerá la versión original en inglés. \nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#3a59565b48535c53595b4e535554497a5d55555e504f5e5d575f544e1459555705494f58505f594e076b4f5f494e5355541f080a79565b48535c53595b4e535554). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor clique [aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/). \n", "options": [ { "name": "Nicaragua", @@ -48662,8 +48760,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "171", - "numforecasters": "116", + "numforecasts": "172", + "numforecasters": "117", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Nicaragua, St. Lucia, There will be a draw" }, @@ -48699,7 +48797,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "257", + "numforecasts": "259", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.500, Between 1.500 and 2.000, inclusive, More than 2.000 but less than 2.500, Between 2.500 and 3.000, inclusive, More than 3.000" @@ -48721,7 +48819,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "215", + "numforecasts": "216", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48748,8 +48846,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "324", - "numforecasters": "139", + "numforecasts": "326", + "numforecasters": "140", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and Likud will win the most seats of any party, Yes, and Likud will tie or not win the most seats of any party, There will not be an election before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -48819,7 +48917,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "173", + "numforecasts": "174", "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48846,8 +48944,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "451", - "numforecasters": "193", + "numforecasts": "453", + "numforecasters": "194", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022, Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022, No" }, @@ -48878,8 +48976,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "414", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "417", + "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only by the FDA, Yes, only by the EMA, Yes, by both the FDA and the EMA, No" }, @@ -48922,7 +49020,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "352", + "numforecasts": "353", "numforecasters": "225", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48944,7 +49042,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "279", + "numforecasts": "280", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -48966,8 +49064,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "413", - "numforecasters": "106", + "numforecasts": "416", + "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -48998,7 +49096,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "317", + "numforecasts": "320", "numforecasters": "104", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only Michael Kovrig, Yes, only Michael Spavor, Yes, both Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, No" @@ -49020,7 +49118,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "241", + "numforecasts": "243", "numforecasters": "125", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49057,7 +49155,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "254", + "numforecasts": "257", "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022" @@ -49101,8 +49199,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "388", - "numforecasters": "203", + "numforecasts": "390", + "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -49123,7 +49221,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasts": "103", "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49214,8 +49312,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "125", - "numforecasters": "29", + "numforecasts": "126", + "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only for president, Yes, only for parliament, Yes, for both president and parliament, No" }, @@ -49236,8 +49334,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "415", - "numforecasters": "196", + "numforecasts": "419", + "numforecasters": "198", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -49249,7 +49347,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -49264,7 +49362,7 @@ }, { "name": "A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party)", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -49278,7 +49376,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "190", + "numforecasts": "195", "numforecasters": "79", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action), A candidate from Alianza para el Progreso (Alliance for Progress), A candidate from Fuerza Popular (Popular Force), A candidate from Partido Morado (Purple Party), Another candidate, There will not be a presidential election in Peru before 1 October 2021" @@ -49300,48 +49398,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "539", + "numforecasts": "543", "numforecasters": "198", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be China's year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1850-what-will-be-china-s-year-on-year-gdp-growth-rate-for-the-second-quarter-of-2021", - "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "After bouncing back from the worst domestic economic effects of COVID-19, whether China can meet or exceed its prior pace of growth remains to be seen ([Economist](https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2020/11/17/chinas-economy-will-hold-up-well-in-the-coming-year)). The outcome will be determined based on data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics ([National Bureau of Statistics](http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=B01)). The relevant data are listed as \"Indices of Gross Domestic Product (preceding year=100), Current Quarter.\" For 2Q 2020, the index was 103.2, which equates to 3.2% growth. The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the relevant data for 2Q 2021 are released, scheduled for July 2021.\nNOTE 9 March 2021: It appears that the resolution source page has issues with its website security certificate. While the site listed above will be used for final resolution, these data are also being reported by CEIC at https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/real-gdp-growth.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 5.0%", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.36, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 8.0%", - "probability": 0.11, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "529", - "numforecasters": "247", - "stars": 3, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%" - }, { "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved and/or authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA as of 31 March 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1849-how-many-covid-19-vaccines-will-be-approved-and-or-authorized-for-emergency-use-by-the-u-s-fda-as-of-31-march-2021", @@ -49374,8 +49435,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1644", - "numforecasters": "575", + "numforecasts": "1663", + "numforecasters": "578", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Zero, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more" }, @@ -49406,7 +49467,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "506", + "numforecasts": "507", "numforecasters": "214", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" @@ -49419,17 +49480,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "319", - "numforecasters": "200", + "numforecasts": "320", + "numforecasters": "201", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -49441,17 +49502,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "511", - "numforecasters": "227", + "numforecasts": "517", + "numforecasters": "232", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -49494,7 +49555,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "314", + "numforecasts": "316", "numforecasters": "185", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49516,7 +49577,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "306", + "numforecasts": "308", "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49580,8 +49641,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "190", - "numforecasters": "110", + "numforecasts": "194", + "numforecasters": "113", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" }, @@ -49624,8 +49685,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "315", - "numforecasters": "167", + "numforecasts": "317", + "numforecasters": "168", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -49646,7 +49707,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "266", + "numforecasts": "268", "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -49683,7 +49744,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1394", + "numforecasts": "1402", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more" @@ -49823,7 +49884,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "541", + "numforecasts": "543", "numforecasters": "151", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Not before 1 June 2021" @@ -49845,8 +49906,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "722", - "numforecasters": "155", + "numforecasts": "726", + "numforecasters": "156", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -49858,17 +49919,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -49882,8 +49943,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "452", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "460", + "numforecasters": "213", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.00%, Between 2.00% and 4.00%, inclusive, More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%, Between 6.00% and 8.00%, inclusive, More than 8.00%" }, @@ -49919,7 +49980,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "464", + "numforecasts": "465", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" @@ -49942,17 +50003,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.98, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "446", - "numforecasters": "65", + "numforecasts": "450", + "numforecasters": "67", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 December 2020, Between 1 December 2020 and 31 January 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" }, @@ -49995,7 +50056,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "410", + "numforecasts": "411", "numforecasters": "159", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50008,7 +50069,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "England", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -50018,7 +50079,7 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.33, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -50042,8 +50103,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "339", - "numforecasters": "113", + "numforecasts": "341", + "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "England, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Another country, There will not be a 2020-21 final winner" }, @@ -50079,7 +50140,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "676", + "numforecasts": "677", "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021" @@ -50101,7 +50162,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1139", + "numforecasts": "1140", "numforecasters": "452", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50123,7 +50184,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "384", + "numforecasts": "385", "numforecasters": "160", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50145,7 +50206,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "326", + "numforecasts": "328", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50167,7 +50228,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "707", + "numforecasts": "709", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50190,21 +50251,21 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 October 2021", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "826", + "numforecasts": "832", "numforecasters": "166", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Not before 1 October 2021" @@ -50270,7 +50331,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "628", + "numforecasts": "630", "numforecasters": "184", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50330,16 +50391,16 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 April 2021", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasts": "266", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 October 2020, Between 1 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Not before 1 April 2021" @@ -50389,7 +50450,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -50399,17 +50460,17 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "290", - "numforecasters": "106", + "numforecasts": "292", + "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service, Yes, only a for public ride-hailing service but not to deliver a package, Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service, No" }, @@ -50477,8 +50538,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "827", - "numforecasters": "284", + "numforecasts": "836", + "numforecasters": "286", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" }, @@ -50486,7 +50547,7 @@ "title": "Between August 2020 and July 2021, will global land and ocean surface temperatures rise 1.5°C or more above the 20th century average for any single month?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1715-between-august-2020-and-july-2021-will-global-land-and-ocean-surface-temperatures-rise-1-5-c-or-more-above-the-20th-century-average-for-any-single-month", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#70131c1102191619131104191f1e0330171f1f141a0514171d151e045e131f1d4f0305121a1513044d2105150304191f1e554240331c1102191619131104191f1e). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Some expect the 1.5°C temperature threshold to be breached within the next five years, and recent predictions indicate any climate warming reprieve due to the global shutdown in the wake of COVID-19 may be temporary ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53342806), [World Meteorological Organization](https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/climate/wmo-statement-state-of-global-climate), [BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-45678338)). The outcome will be determined using data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Climate Reports ([NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/)). For June 2020, the global land and ocean surface temperature was 0.92°C above the 20th century average for June ([NOAA - June 2020 Report](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202006)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#46252a27342f202f2527322f29283506212929222c3322212b2328326825292b793533242c2325327b17332335322f2928637476052a27342f202f2527322f2928). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50508,7 +50569,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 January 2022, will the U.S. Senate expand the scope of matters for which a filibuster cannot be used?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1718-before-1-january-2022-will-the-u-s-senate-expand-the-scope-of-matters-for-which-a-filibuster-cannot-be-used", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#6e0d020f1c0708070d0f1a0701001d2e0901010a041b0a09030b001a400d0103511d1b0c040b0d1a533f1b0b1d1a0701004b5c5e2d020f1c0708070d0f1a070100). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "In April 2017, Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster for the confirmation of Supreme Court Justices by changing the rules so that debate on nominees could be ended with a simple majority vote rather than a three-fifths majority ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-court-gorsuch-idUSKBN17814Y)). Whether the filibuster will be further eroded remains to be seen ([The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/why-senate-filibuster-could-be-gone-2021/614278/), [Brookings Institute](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/what-is-the-senate-filibuster-and-what-would-it-take-to-eliminate-it/)).\nConfused? Check our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#72111e13001b141b1113061b1d1c0132151d1d16180716151f171c065c111d1f4d010710181711064f23071701061b1d1c574042311e13001b141b1113061b1d1c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50521,7 +50582,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "635", + "numforecasts": "636", "numforecasters": "142", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -50590,7 +50651,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "249", + "numforecasts": "251", "numforecasters": "57", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.2 million, Between 2.2 million and 2.8 million, inclusive, More than 2.8 million but fewer than 3.4 million, Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive, More than 4.0 million" @@ -50627,7 +50688,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "233", + "numforecasts": "234", "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 5,300, Between 5,300 and 5,700, inclusive, More than 5,700 but fewer than 6,100, Between 6,100 and 6,500, inclusive, More than 6,500" @@ -50636,7 +50697,7 @@ "title": "How many cases of COVID-19 will be reported by the Africa CDC as of 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1674-how-many-cases-of-covid-19-will-be-reported-by-the-africa-cdc-as-of-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a7c4cbc6d5cec1cec4c6d3cec8c9d4e7c0c8c8c3cdd2c3c0cac2c9d389c4c8ca98d4d2c5cdc2c4d39af6d2c2d4d3cec8c9829597e4cbc6d5cec1cec4c6d3cec8c9). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The full impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the African continent, home to over 1.2 billion people, remains a topic of intense speculation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/16/africa/africa-coronavirus-cases-prevention-intl/index.html), [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/african-countries-scramble-to-ramp-up-testing-for-covid-19/), [Lancet](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31237-X/fulltext)). The outcome will be determined using cases data from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) Dashboard at 5:00PM ET on 1 April 2021 ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/covid-19/)).\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#35565954475c535c5654415c5a5b4675525a5a515f40515258505b411b565a580a4640575f5056410864405046415c5a5b100705765954475c535c5654415c5a5b). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 2.5 million", @@ -50664,8 +50725,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1162", - "numforecasters": "170", + "numforecasts": "1166", + "numforecasters": "173", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 2.5 million, Between 2.5 million and 5.0 million, inclusive, More than 5.0 million but fewer than 10.0 million, Between 10.0 million and 20.0 million, inclusive, More than 20.0 million" }, @@ -50673,7 +50734,7 @@ "title": "Before 1 May 2021, will it be officially announced that the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics and/or Paralympics will be canceled?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1668-before-1-may-2021-will-it-be-officially-announced-that-the-tokyo-2020-summer-olympics-and-or-paralympics-will-be-canceled", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#bbd8d7dac9d2ddd2d8dacfd2d4d5c8fbdcd4d4dfd1cedfdcd6ded5cf95d8d4d684c8ced9d1ded8cf86eacedec8cfd2d4d59e898bf8d7dac9d2ddd2d8dacfd2d4d5). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Coronavirus concerns already forced the postponement of the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to summer 2021 ([ESPN](https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/28946033/tokyo-olympics-officially-postponed-2021), [Olympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/), [Paralympic Games](https://tokyo2020.org/en/paralympics/)). Various concerns such as cost, vaccine availability, and international travel safety have some concerned about the rescheduled games taking place at all ([BBC](https://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/52747797)). Postponement(s) alone would not count.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#7e1d121f0c1718171d1f0a1711100d3e1911111a140b1a19131b100a501d1113410d0b1c141b1d0a432f0b1b0d0a1711105b4c4e3d121f0c1718171d1f0a171110). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes, the Olympics only", @@ -50687,17 +50748,17 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1956", - "numforecasters": "804", + "numforecasts": "1977", + "numforecasters": "815", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No" }, @@ -50705,7 +50766,7 @@ "title": "Between 1 January 2021 and 31 December 2022, will legislation enabling the creation of federal safety standards for autonomous vehicles (AVs) become law?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1659-between-1-january-2021-and-31-december-2022-will-legislation-enabling-the-creation-of-federal-safety-standards-for-autonomous-vehicles-avs-become-law", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#32515e53405b545b5153465b5d5c4172555d5d56584756555f575c461c515d5f0d414750585751460f63475741465b5d5c170002715e53405b545b5153465b5d5c). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Congress has yet to adopt legislation to create federal safety standards for the testing and/or use of AVs ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/automobiles/472341-wheels-begin-to-turn-on-self-driving-car-legislation), [Federation of American Scientists](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45985.pdf), [Congress.gov (House Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/3388), [Congress.gov (Senate Bill)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1885)). Legislators are renewing efforts the 116th Congress, though the COVID-19 pandemic has acted as a \"bump in the road\" ([The Hill](https://thehill.com/policy/technology/498863-action-on-driverless-cars-hits-speed-bump-as-congress-focuses-on-pandemic), [Legal Reader](https://www.legalreader.com/self-driving-cars-and-the-law/)). The date the law and/or standards would take effect is immaterial.\nThis question is the longer-term companion of question #1658. The questions are substantively the same, save for the relevant time period. If the shorter-term question closes Yes, then this longer-term question will be voided.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#fb98979a89929d92989a8f92949588bb9c94949f918e9f9c969e958fd5989496c4888e99919e988fc6aa8e9e888f929495dec9cbb8979a89929d92989a8f929495). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50727,7 +50788,7 @@ "title": "Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of the People's Republic of China and those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and/or Vietnam before 1 April 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1652-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-militia-and-or-law-enforcement-personnel-of-the-people-s-republic-of-china-and-those-of-brunei-indonesia-malaysia-the-philippines-singapore-and-or-vietnam-before-1-april-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#a8cbc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6dbe8cfc7c7ccc2ddcccfc5cdc6dc86cbc7c597dbddcac2cdcbdc95f9ddcddbdcc1c7c68d9a98ebc4c9dac1cec1cbc9dcc1c7c6). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "Over the years, China has used various forces to project power toward its neighbors in and around the South China Sea ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/07/asia/china-malaysia-indonesia-south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html), [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://amti.csis.org/maritime-claims-map/), [Council on Foreign Relations](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea), [Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2015/11/little-blue-men-doing-chinas-dirty-work-in-the-south-china-sea/)). A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.\nCheck our [FAQ](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question) or [ask us for help](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#ed8e818c9f848b848e8c998482839ead8a8282898798898a80888399c38e8280d29e988f87888e99d0bc98889e99848283c8dfddae818c9f848b848e8c99848283). To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -50740,8 +50801,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1059", - "numforecasters": "461", + "numforecasts": "1063", + "numforecasters": "462", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -50777,7 +50838,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "289", + "numforecasts": "291", "numforecasters": "82", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 700,000, Between 700,000 and 1,200,000, inclusive, More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000, Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive, More than 2,200,000" @@ -50846,7 +50907,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "393", + "numforecasts": "395", "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1, 2, 3 or more" @@ -50942,7 +51003,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "425", + "numforecasts": "426", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 2.5%, Between 2.5% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than 6.5%, Between 6.5% and 8.5%, inclusive, More than 8.5%" @@ -51098,12 +51159,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, more than 121", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No, not more than 121", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51138,57 +51199,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.02912621359223301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.03883495145631068, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.1346153846153846, + "probability": 0.14563106796116507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5673076923076923, + "probability": 0.5436893203883496, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.00970873786407767, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.04854368932038835, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14423076923076925, + "probability": 0.14563106796116507, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51203,22 +51264,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Macron and Le Pen", - "probability": 0.6078431372549019, + "probability": 0.6037735849056604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Macron, but not Le Pen", - "probability": 0.1176470588235294, + "probability": 0.11320754716981131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Le Pen, but not Macron", - "probability": 0.24509803921568626, + "probability": 0.2358490566037736, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neither of them", - "probability": 0.02941176470588235, + "probability": 0.04716981132075472, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51233,12 +51294,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 0.9705882352941175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.02941176470588235, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51253,17 +51314,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.9223300970873787, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.05825242718446602, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01941747572815534, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51318,32 +51379,32 @@ }, { "name": "March 2021", - "probability": 0.020408163265306124, + "probability": 0.010101010101010102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "April 2021", - "probability": 0.09183673469387756, + "probability": 0.11111111111111112, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.23469387755102042, + "probability": 0.26262626262626265, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.39795918367346944, + "probability": 0.37373737373737376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.25510204081632654, + "probability": 0.24242424242424243, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51358,12 +51419,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "probability": 0.07920792079207921, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9215686274509803, + "probability": 0.9207920792079207, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51378,22 +51439,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Saad-Eddine El Othmani", - "probability": 0.1839080459770115, + "probability": 0.15533980582524273, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdelilah Benkirane", - "probability": 0.09195402298850575, + "probability": 0.07766990291262137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else from PJD", - "probability": 0.05747126436781609, + "probability": 0.01941747572815534, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else not from PJD", - "probability": 0.6666666666666665, + "probability": 0.7475728155339806, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51548,27 +51609,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed", - "probability": 0.8673469387755103, + "probability": 0.9313725490196079, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abshir Aden Ferro", - "probability": 0.010204081632653062, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed", - "probability": 0.010204081632653062, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.010204081632653062, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No election in 2021", - "probability": 0.10204081632653061, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51583,27 +51644,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)", - "probability": 0.01941747572815534, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.21359223300970875, + "probability": 0.2857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.3980582524271845, + "probability": 0.4476190476190476, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.14563106796116507, + "probability": 0.11428571428571427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.2233009708737864, + "probability": 0.13333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51668,32 +51729,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Marcus Söder (CSU)", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.19626168224299065, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet (CDU)", - "probability": 0.7920792079207921, + "probability": 0.6542056074766356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another member of CDU/CSU", - "probability": 0.04950495049504951, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of SPD", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A member of the Green party", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.10280373831775702, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Someone else", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51743,22 +51804,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.020408163265306124, + "probability": 0.02752293577981652, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.6836734693877551, + "probability": 0.6422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.2142857142857143, + "probability": 0.25688073394495414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.0816326530612245, + "probability": 0.07339449541284404, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51773,22 +51834,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.06930693069306931, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51868,12 +51929,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -51888,12 +51949,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9306930693069307, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.06930693069306931, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -52146,27 +52207,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005923437361860137, + "probability": 0.005626942134878643, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.019184864291397753, + "probability": 0.018224573780129334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.05702413579701176, + "probability": 0.05416981607457798, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3810450004420476, + "probability": 0.36197194927353654, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.049155689152152765, + "probability": 0.073066263542454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -52186,7 +52247,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.03536380514543365, + "probability": 0.033593684387335176, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -52221,7 +52282,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.02758376801343825, + "probability": 0.02620307382212144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -52236,17 +52297,17 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.38776412341968, + "probability": 0.36835474930713025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.03403766245247989, + "probability": 0.05601746871588141, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.002917513924498276, + "probability": 0.002771478961955152, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -52877,37 +52938,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5363963465264323, + "probability": 0.5392534240444007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.18092074914660022, + "probability": 0.18646495389848716, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.04732908939939109, + "probability": 0.04592247784441859, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "François Baroin", - "probability": 0.0658732355383338, + "probability": 0.06391549547936622, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.035519881907925085, + "probability": 0.034464237758481786, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.04612971676353907, + "probability": 0.04475875033569063, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olivier Faure", - "probability": 0.0439154903588892, + "probability": 0.04261033031957748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -52927,7 +52988,7 @@ }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.0439154903588892, + "probability": 0.04261033031957748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -53290,41 +53351,41 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9429285357321339, + "probability": 0.9483313228789705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.02628685657171414, + "probability": 0.025130679533574583, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.02938530734632683, + "probability": 0.025130679533574583, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.0010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -53339,12 +53400,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28001209555488354, + "probability": 0.3167398244213887, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7199879044451164, + "probability": 0.6832601755786113, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -53359,12 +53420,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street", - "probability": 0.6451702186548575, + "probability": 0.6843135336138566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne", - "probability": 0.3548297813451425, + "probability": 0.31568646638614345, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -53989,12 +54050,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5288406624785836, + "probability": 0.5384764489242101, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4711593375214163, + "probability": 0.46152355107578985, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54359,17 +54420,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.8494444444444444, + "probability": 0.8455299539170507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.018433179723502304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.004608294930875576, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -54379,12 +54440,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.08055555555555555, + "probability": 0.08018433179723501, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.051481481481481475, + "probability": 0.051244239631336404, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54399,12 +54460,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13046653884780424, + "probability": 0.13378808549340612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8695334611521957, + "probability": 0.866211914506594, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54459,17 +54520,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 3", - "probability": 0.1314345193035579, + "probability": 0.12773588375942616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 3", - "probability": 0.3309046177138531, + "probability": 0.3215927901416222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 4", - "probability": 0.5376608629825889, + "probability": 0.5506713260989516, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54599,17 +54660,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "GroenLinks", - "probability": 0.31493905319852594, + "probability": 0.32843910130074894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)", - "probability": 0.1687612208258528, + "probability": 0.13312968072526607, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)", - "probability": 0.5162997259756212, + "probability": 0.5384312179739851, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54684,32 +54745,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.7204754278007249, + "probability": 0.730138390568939, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republic of Ireland", - "probability": 0.12045856865885526, + "probability": 0.12207415000854263, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.03371828373935767, + "probability": 0.0341705108491372, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.10284076540504088, + "probability": 0.10422005808986845, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "China", - "probability": 0.014077383461181826, + "probability": 0.00085426277122843, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ukraine", - "probability": 0.008429570934839417, + "probability": 0.0085426277122843, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54724,32 +54785,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 45%", - "probability": 0.027804642166344297, + "probability": 0.0282949233166571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45–49.9%", - "probability": 0.11855254674403612, + "probability": 0.12064299188058722, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50–54.9%", - "probability": 0.5519825918762089, + "probability": 0.5360452718773067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55–59.9%", - "probability": 0.18318826563507415, + "probability": 0.22783564340195195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60–64.9%", - "probability": 0.10606060606060606, + "probability": 0.07455097186910523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65% or over", - "probability": 0.012411347517730497, + "probability": 0.012630197654391865, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54784,12 +54845,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37464865354973254, + "probability": 0.3994252873563218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6253513464502675, + "probability": 0.6005747126436781, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -55144,12 +55205,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42494958225295304, + "probability": 0.43832661101210013, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.575050417747047, + "probability": 0.5616733889878999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -55254,12 +55315,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)", - "probability": 0.9792249300838993, + "probability": 0.9899030694668821, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "PVV (Party for Freedom)", - "probability": 0.020775069916100678, + "probability": 0.010096930533117932, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -55484,12 +55545,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.4934036939313984, + "probability": 0.4217184495496407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.5065963060686015, + "probability": 0.5782815504503592, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -56327,6 +56388,111 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservative, Labour" }, + { + "title": "Alyn and Deeside", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative" + }, + { + "title": "Delyn", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative" + }, + { + "title": "Newport East", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative" + }, + { + "title": "Newport West", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative" + }, + { + "title": "Ynys Môn", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Plaid Cymru", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Plaid Cymru, Conservative, Labour" + }, { "title": "Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", @@ -56965,32 +57131,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Soder", - "probability": 0.454031939816873, + "probability": 0.4561030955356818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.38234268616157724, + "probability": 0.3869965659090633, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.05341552233139683, + "probability": 0.05122013372325838, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.05341552233139683, + "probability": 0.05122013372325838, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.043241137125416475, + "probability": 0.04146391777597107, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.013553192233339492, + "probability": 0.012996153332767052, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58160,37 +58326,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.452482924641184, + "probability": 0.470841460109662, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.04115439933641245, + "probability": 0.04035783943797102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.04115439933641245, + "probability": 0.04035783943797102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008556855307570905, + "probability": 0.008391233942548431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.04115439933641245, + "probability": 0.03259671646913045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3646592346264394, + "probability": 0.357601108944047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.05083778741556832, + "probability": 0.04985380165867009, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -58204,82 +58370,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.023053988786678126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francois Baroin", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.023053988786678126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve", - "probability": 0.022408732742443014, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolas Sarkozy", - "probability": 0.029303727432425482, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Michel Barnier", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.03732550565462173, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Lisnard", - "probability": 0.014939155161628677, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marion Marechal", - "probability": 0.014939155161628677, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ségolène Royal", - "probability": 0.029303727432425482, + "probability": 0.030147523797963708, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valerie Pecresse", - "probability": 0.022408732742443014, + "probability": 0.023053988786678126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.4562256965527321, + "probability": 0.4992583558898448, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.16931042516512498, + "probability": 0.1741856930549014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Melenchon", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.03732550565462173, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.03628080539252678, + "probability": 0.03732550565462173, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurent Wauquiez", - "probability": 0.022408732742443014, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan", - "probability": 0.022408732742443014, + "probability": 0.023053988786678126, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benoit Hamon", - "probability": 0.014939155161628677, + "probability": 0.015369325857785419, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -59095,92 +59261,97 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan (Lab)", - "probability": 0.877670711241192, + "probability": 0.87607458110003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey (Cons)", - "probability": 0.05369279645240234, + "probability": 0.053595150843766544, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sian Berry (Green)", - "probability": 0.009037401383077622, + "probability": 0.00902096598360427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten (Heritage)", - "probability": 0.003636563903150756, + "probability": 0.003629950455553909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London (Ind)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)", - "probability": 0.004541181789506666, + "probability": 0.0045329232056916975, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose (Ind)", - "probability": 0.02684639822620117, + "probability": 0.026797575421883272, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid (WEP)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)", - "probability": 0.003636563903150756, + "probability": 0.003629950455553909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nims Obunge (Ind)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "DrillMinister", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Winston McKenzie", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kam Balayev (Renew)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox (Reclaim)", - "probability": 0.004541181789506666, + "probability": 0.0045329232056916975, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Fosh (Ind)", - "probability": 0.0018219112568679434, + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)", + "probability": 0.0018185979328224175, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "stars": 2, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Sadiq Khan (Lab), Shaun Bailey (Cons), Sian Berry (Green), David Kurten (Heritage), Farah London (Ind), Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem), Brian Rose (Ind), Mandu Reid (WEP), Peter Gammons (UKIP), Piers Corbyn, Nims Obunge (Ind), Count Binface, DrillMinister, Winston McKenzie, Kam Balayev (Renew), Laurence Fox (Reclaim), Max Fosh (Ind)" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Sadiq Khan (Lab), Shaun Bailey (Cons), Sian Berry (Green), David Kurten (Heritage), Farah London (Ind), Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem), Brian Rose (Ind), Mandu Reid (WEP), Peter Gammons (UKIP), Piers Corbyn, Nims Obunge (Ind), Count Binface, DrillMinister, Winston McKenzie, Kam Balayev (Renew), Laurence Fox (Reclaim), Max Fosh (Ind), Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)" }, { "title": "London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share", @@ -59883,6 +60054,35 @@ "stars": 2, "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Scottish Greens" }, + { + "title": "Next Scottish Parliamentary Election: Glasgow Southside", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", + "platform": "Ladbrokes", + "options": [ + { + "name": "SNP", + "probability": 0.8406168766829473, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0.13209693776446316, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservatives", + "probability": 0.01813095224218122, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Liberal Democrats", + "probability": 0.009155233310408337, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "stars": 2, + "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats" + }, { "title": "Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)", "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.csv b/data/polymarket-questions.csv index 70a3802..e7584c8 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.csv +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.csv @@ -1,41 +1,44 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021",,"[]","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/). -",, -"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9020675104560266242928658490359193"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.09793248954397337570713415096408066"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","743",4 -"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9417195914487910114324226613628884"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.05828040855120898856757733863711156"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","1126",4 -"Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3707686099913996115047668729330381"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6292313900086003884952331270669619"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +"Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.8210843425606883932577026603711056"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.1789156574393116067422973396288944"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ","86",4 +"Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.04230439517024041202188761379533177"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9576956048297595879781123862046682"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/). +","136",3 +"Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.590714245983359374033906060938728"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.409285754016640625966093939061272"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","1098",4 +"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on April 30, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-april-30-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9404923421274491912575869598563209"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.05950765787255080874241304014367906"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on April 30, 2021, 11:59 PM EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/","1211",3 +"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9000917694479315732807625228160966"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.0999082305520684267192374771839034"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","746",3 +"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",,"[]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",, +"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2653722700132592071193972157990358"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7346277299867407928806027842009642"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","98",4 +"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.7298930612036890560025667805575824"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.2701069387963109439974332194424176"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","85",4 +"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.35432149199383195961631776417634"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.64567850800616804038368223582366"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","821",4 +"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01154405211189743827135156638705084"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9884559478881025617286484336129492"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. -","91",4 -"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01303004504875397478684467389823031"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9869699549512460252131553261017697"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","163",4 -"Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7145359660504512760901211975188015"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2854640339495487239098788024811985"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","749",4 -"Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5949757931089654702534487833108707"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4050242068910345297465512166891293"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ","60",4 -"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.01387094277300396838380358793614142"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9861290572269960316161964120638586"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. - -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3697",4 -"Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4651522225544767235661767619034977"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5348477774455232764338232380965023"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","759",4 -"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3973484856384877270794592594966717"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6026515143615122729205407405033283"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","38",4 -"New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9989036600273357211489800871031293"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.001096339972664278851019912896870658"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.","676",4 -"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-jeff-bezos-or-elon-musk-have-a-higher-net-worth-on-april-25-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Bezos"",""probability"":""0.7659792299796475948127206110163418"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Musk"",""probability"":""0.2340207700203524051872793889836582"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","73",4 -"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.4849327758683133103611689091360621"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.5150672241316866896388310908639379"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3810",3 +"Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.3992180768566974816348527785427362"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.6007819231433025183651472214572638"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to ""No"". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","40",4 +"Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City in 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-primary-for-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.5186374815653130703780627007855618"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.4813625184346869296219372992144382"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Andrew Yang will win the Democratic primary for New York City Mayor in 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Yang is the winner of the Democratic primary for Mayor of New York City, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary is currently scheduled for June 22, 2021. In the event that the primary is not held on that date, the resolution of this market will be delayed until the primary takes place. If no primary is held in 2021, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market will be any official CNN publication that declares Andrew Yang the primary winner. In the event of conflicting sources between CNN and WSJ (https://www.wsj.com) or Associated Press (https://apnews.com/), the market will only be resolved once there is a definitive winner. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","172",4 -"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2949935117694452647058285346824288"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7050064882305547352941714653175712"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","72",3 -"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05425375669298964829973220365160608"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9457462433070103517002677963483939"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. +","180",4 +"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05235204328927104384398080690325785"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9476479567107289561560191930967421"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on May 31, 2021, 12 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. -If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","426",4 -"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.9620005079085840774763336740396634"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.03799949209141592252366632596033662"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","3375",4 -"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08274234437160027517750193450775061"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9172576556283997248224980654922494"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","289",4 -"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6100979356357447676774497953351822"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3899020643642552323225502046648178"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations +If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","460",3 +"Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.7645639315269544210625576398861445"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.2354360684730455789374423601138555"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations -This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","4724",4 -"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08129153595237744973294799368691154"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9187084640476225502670520063130885"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). -","52",4 -"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1649157285360285221066994045625896"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8350842714639714778933005954374104"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","35",4 -"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",,"[]","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",, -"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",,"[]","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule. -",, \ No newline at end of file +This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. +","186",4 +"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.08639576439906160345569679883924252"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9136042356009383965443032011607575"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","296",3 +"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.07912744676147613200988215797057122"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9208725532385238679901178420294288"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","61",3 +"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.6378336067386002818693056840263355"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.3621663932613997181306943159736645"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations + +This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","4879",4 +"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.1710012762395096492854638276142472"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.8289987237604903507145361723857528"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","39",4 +"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.580310119601644467086386388930093"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.419689880398355532913613611069907"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). + +","408",4 +"Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.2369102904781910210045405816592945"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.7630897095218089789954594183407055"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","1264",4 +"Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Texas"",""probability"":""0.3822268185332019571567270535991622"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florida"",""probability"":""0.4841158144450835226246633130930288"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""California"",""probability"":""0.1336573670217145202186096333078089"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). +","129",4 +"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1","PolyMarket","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":""0.05895633696239021853329046475585481"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":""0.9410436630376097814667095352441452"",""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","73",3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/polymarket-questions.json b/data/polymarket-questions.json index e93c766..4707cd3 100644 --- a/data/polymarket-questions.json +++ b/data/polymarket-questions.json @@ -1,33 +1,62 @@ [ { - "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021", - "address": "0xc36Ac0B35CfC88a7F1433058042D10DFcCd7628F", - "description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [] - }, - { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", + "title": "Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9020675104560266242928658490359193", + "probability": "0.8210843425606883932577026603711056", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.09793248954397337570713415096408066", + "probability": "0.1789156574393116067422973396288944", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "743", + "numforecasts": "86", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will any NBA Topshot sell for more than $300,000 by March 20, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-nba-topshot-sell-for-more-than-300000-by-march-20-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the highest price that will be paid for an NBA Top Shot moment before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an NBA Top Shot moment is sold for over $300,000 USD before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. This market will resolve to “No” if no single NBA Top Shot moment is sold for more than $300,000 before March 20, 2021, 12:00 pm ET. The official resolution source will be the NBA Top Shot website, https://www.nbatopshot.com, and the corresponding Flowscan transaction record (https://flowscan.org/).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.04230439517024041202188761379533177", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9576956048297595879781123862046682", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "136", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.590714245983359374033906060938728", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.409285754016640625966093939061272", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1098", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -38,176 +67,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9417195914487910114324226613628884", + "probability": "0.9404923421274491912575869598563209", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.05828040855120898856757733863711156", + "probability": "0.05950765787255080874241304014367906", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "1126", - "stars": 4 + "numforecasts": "1211", + "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3707686099913996115047668729330381", + "probability": "0.9000917694479315732807625228160966", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6292313900086003884952331270669619", + "probability": "0.0999082305520684267192374771839034", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "91", - "stars": 4 + "numforecasts": "746", + "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", + "address": "0x36BB6f09327d1A7D0930668345655d6A6e3c6b20", "description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01303004504875397478684467389823031", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9869699549512460252131553261017697", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } + "outcomes": [ + "Yes", + "No" ], - "numforecasts": "163", - "stars": 4 + "options": [] }, { - "title": "Will ETH be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-1750-on-march-22nd-2021-1", + "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $1750 on March 22nd, 2021, 12:00pm ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $1750 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7145359660504512760901211975188015", + "probability": "0.2653722700132592071193972157990358", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2854640339495487239098788024811985", + "probability": "0.7346277299867407928806027842009642", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "749", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will box office sales be higher than $200 million in the first quarter of 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-box-office-sales-be-higher-than-200-million-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether box office sales for the first quarter of 2021 will be higher than $200 million, as measured by cumulative gross sales. The resolution date for this market is April 3, 12:00 PM ET, but only data concerning sales for the first quarter will be considered. This market considers calendar grosses rather than in-quarter releases. This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative gross sales are above $200 million on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.boxofficemojo.com/quarter/?ref_=bo_nb_hm_secondarytab. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5949757931089654702534487833108707", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4050242068910345297465512166891293", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "60", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01387094277300396838380358793614142", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9861290572269960316161964120638586", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "3697", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4651522225544767235661767619034977", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5348477774455232764338232380965023", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "759", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3973484856384877270794592594966717", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6026515143615122729205407405033283", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "38", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "New government stimulus checks by March 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/new-government-stimulus-checks-by-march-15-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This market concerns whether or not legislation will be signed into law by March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST which includes direct government stimulus payments to US citizens. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date according to the official Congress website, regardless of if the stimulus checks have been paid out yet. This market will resolve to “No” if no such legislation becomes law prior to the resolution date. If the stimulus payment is only available to a certain subset of US citizens, this market will still resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source will be congress.gov/bill, the official website of Congress.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9989036600273357211489800871031293", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.001096339972664278851019912896870658", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "676", + "numforecasts": "98", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -218,16 +138,76 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.7659792299796475948127206110163418", + "probability": "0.7298930612036890560025667805575824", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.2340207700203524051872793889836582", + "probability": "0.2701069387963109439974332194424176", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "73", + "numforecasts": "85", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will ETH be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-eth-be-above-2000-on-april-1st-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Ether $ETH will be above $2000 on April 1st, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if ETH is trading above $2000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.35432149199383195961631776417634", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.64567850800616804038368223582366", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "821", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.01154405211189743827135156638705084", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9884559478881025617286484336129492", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "3810", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will any of SuperRare, Zora, Foundation, OpenSea, or NiftyGateway have a live token by April 30th, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-of-super-rare-zora-foundation-open-sea-or-nifty-gateway-have-a-live-token-by-april-30th-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if at least one of the following projects - SuperRare, NiftyGateway, Zora, Foundation, or OpenSea - will have a live token by April 30th, 2021, 12pm EST. Having a live token, in this context, can be defined as a deployed-to-mainnet, actively transferrable and/or tradable token that is in some way native to the application, and substantiated by the respective project via website or social media channels. Empirically speaking, having a live token will be considered fulfilled if official project channels announce the introduction of the token and it is live on mainnet, and swappable and acquirable (i.e. via Uniswap). In the case of a token being announced but not yet transferrable or “live”, that will not satisfy market conditions. If the token is deployed to mainnet (in any form, including some sort of voucher), but is not transferrable, that will also not satisfy market conditions. In the case of ERC20 tokens, if the token is deployed, but there is no existing Uniswap pool for the token, it will be considered not “live” and thus will not satisfy market conditions. For clarity, this market is about fungible tokens, and not NFTs related to a platform. Once one of these projects has a live token, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". If the resolution date is reached and none of the projects have a token, the market will resolve to \"No\". In the case of ambiguity, the market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.3992180768566974816348527785427362", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.6007819231433025183651472214572638", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "40", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -238,38 +218,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.4849327758683133103611689091360621", + "probability": "0.5186374815653130703780627007855618", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.5150672241316866896388310908639379", + "probability": "0.4813625184346869296219372992144382", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "172", + "numforecasts": "180", "stars": 4 }, - { - "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 130 Gwei on March 20?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-130-gwei-on-march-20", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 130 Gwei on March 20, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 130 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 130 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of March 20, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.2949935117694452647058285346824288", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.7050064882305547352941714653175712", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "72", - "stars": 3 - }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on May 31, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-may-31-2021", @@ -278,36 +238,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.05425375669298964829973220365160608", + "probability": "0.05235204328927104384398080690325785", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9457462433070103517002677963483939", + "probability": "0.9476479567107289561560191930967421", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "426", - "stars": 4 + "numforecasts": "460", + "stars": 3 }, { - "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on March 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-march-15-2021", + "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on March 15, 2021, 12:00pm EST, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9620005079085840774763336740396634", + "probability": "0.7645639315269544210625576398861445", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.03799949209141592252366632596033662", + "probability": "0.2354360684730455789374423601138555", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "3375", + "numforecasts": "186", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -318,37 +278,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.08274234437160027517750193450775061", + "probability": "0.08639576439906160345569679883924252", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9172576556283997248224980654922494", + "probability": "0.9136042356009383965443032011607575", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "289", - "stars": 4 - }, - { - "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6100979356357447676774497953351822", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3899020643642552323225502046648178", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "numforecasts": "4724", - "stars": 4 + "numforecasts": "296", + "stars": 3 }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", @@ -358,16 +298,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.08129153595237744973294799368691154", + "probability": "0.07912744676147613200988215797057122", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9187084640476225502670520063130885", + "probability": "0.9208725532385238679901178420294288", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "52", + "numforecasts": "61", + "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6378336067386002818693056840263355", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3621663932613997181306943159736645", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "4879", "stars": 4 }, { @@ -378,38 +338,101 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1649157285360285221066994045625896", + "probability": "0.1710012762395096492854638276142472", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8350842714639714778933005954374104", + "probability": "0.8289987237604903507145361723857528", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "numforecasts": "35", + "numforecasts": "39", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.580310119601644467086386388930093", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.419689880398355532913613611069907", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "408", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-march-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on March 15, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating is. The resolution date for this market will be on March 16, 2021 according to data published for the day of March 15th, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.2369102904781910210045405816592945", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.7630897095218089789954594183407055", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "1264", + "stars": 4 + }, + { + "title": "Will Texas, Florida, or California have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-texas-florida-or-california-have-the-highest-7-day-daily-average-of-covid-19-cases-on-april-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on which of the following states will have the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on April 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET: Texas, Florida, or California. The resolution source for this Market will be the New York Times’ U.S. state-by-state COVID-19 case count dashboard (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states). This market will resolve to whichever state out of Texas, Florida, or California has the highest 7-day daily average of COVID-19 cases on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Texas", + "probability": "0.3822268185332019571567270535991622", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Florida", + "probability": "0.4841158144450835226246633130930288", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "California", + "probability": "0.1336573670217145202186096333078089", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "numforecasts": "129", "stars": 4 }, { "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", - "address": "0x6b56111517Dc033B9481B087baBb7458776f3683", + "platform": "PolyMarket", "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.05895633696239021853329046475585481", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9410436630376097814667095352441452", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } ], - "options": [] - }, - { - "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", - "address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545", - "description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n", - "outcomes": [ - "Yes", - "No" - ], - "options": [] + "numforecasts": "73", + "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.csv b/data/predictit-questions.csv index 7f9b580..712cdf4 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.csv +++ b/data/predictit-questions.csv @@ -1,43 +1,43 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" -"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6862745098039215,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3137254901960784,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6789/Which-party-will-win-the-2020-House-race-in-Iowa's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5238095238095238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4380952380952381,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. +"Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5192307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4423076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Libertarian"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party whose candidate on Election Day wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Should the winner of the presidential election not be the candidate of any party listed in this market at the time of resolution, all contracts shall resolve to No. Should no presidential election be held in the United States in 2024, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. Should the winner of the presidential election be the candidate of the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, this market shall resolve in favor of such winning party, regardless of any candidacy, association, endorsement, or relationship the winning candidate may also hold with or from any other party. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5544554455445545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.44554455445544555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. +"Which party will control the Senate after 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the party that, at the End Date listed below, enjoys the support of more than half of the voting members of the U.S. Senate or, in the event that the vice president has the same party affiliation, the support of half or more of the voting members. For purposes of resolving this market, a Senator's party affiliation or support shall be determined by whichever party’s caucus she or he is a member of on the End Date. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 01/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5841584158415841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4158415841584158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. +"Which party will win the House in the 2022 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6892/Which-party-will-win-the-House-in-the-2022-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.58,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall identify the political party whose candidates are elected in a majority of districts in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 general election. A candidate shall be considered to be associated with a political party if such candidate is elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party or in the event that such candidate, as of 12:01 a.m. (ET) on November 8, 2022, most recently publicly stated an intention to caucus with that party. For purposes of resolving this market, delegates and resident Commissioners who are members of the House shall not be considered. Determination of the winners of House seats shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2022 election results for each state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. PredictIt also reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any other ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.29906542056074764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6355140186915887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. +"How many U.S. House delegations will Republicans win in the 2020 election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6925/How-many-US-House-delegations-will-Republicans-win-in-the-2020-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""22 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26"",""probability"":0.29090909090909095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27"",""probability"":0.6454545454545455,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or more"",""probability"":0.009090909090909092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which corresponds to the number of U.S. House state delegations controlled by the Republican Party as a result of the 2020 general election. The Republican Party shall be considered to control any state delegation in which a majority of representatives have been elected with a ballot-listed or otherwise readily identifiable party preference as Republican on the day of the election. Should such preference be unidentifiable, a candidate shall be considered a Republican only if prior to the election he or she has most recently indicated an intention to caucus with Republicans. Determination of a House seat won shall be based on state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2020 U.S. House election results for such state; provided that, if a certification or other final official determination is challenged, PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Members of the House of Representatives who are ""delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. +"Will there be more than 9 Supreme Court justices at any point in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6946/Will-there-be-more-than-9-Supreme-Court-justices-at-any-point-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that, at any point during the 2021 calendar year, there are more than nine current members of the United States Supreme Court. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 5:00 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. +"Will Kamala Harris file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6953/Will-Kamala-Harris-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.75,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Kamala Harris becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Ms. Harris and/or her representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Ms. Harris' previous presidential campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2022 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. +"Will Mike Pence file to run for president before the end of 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6975/Will-Mike-Pence-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Mike Pence becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election, by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Pence and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Pence's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -53,13 +53,13 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 11/19/2020 9:55 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The Rules expressly state that this market concerns whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be ""a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Representative in Congress from New York's 14th District."" If she is not a ballot-listed candidate in such primary in the district numbered NY-14, this market will resolve No. ",,3 -"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.81,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. +"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before the end of 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8200000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Donald Trump becomes a candidate for president of the United States in the 2024 general election by filing a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission, or by amending an existing Statement of Candidacy, designating a principal campaign committee for the office of President of the United States in the 2024 election, or otherwise filing with the FEC a communication having the same effect as the filing of a Form 2 Statement of Candidacy for that election, before the End Date listed below. Filing by an authorized representative of the candidate shall be deemed filing by the candidate. Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstanding declarations by Mr. Trump and/or his representatives regarding intentions to run, fundraising activities, hiring of campaign staff, and/or establishment of other campaign infrastructure. The filing of clerical, corrective, or other administrative updates, amendments, or disclosures related to Mr. Trump's previous campaigns or campaign committees will be insufficient to cause this market to resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7000/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-New-Jersey-gubernatorial-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.8910891089108911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ For purposes of this market, only one candidate can represent a party listed in PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4862385321100917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.2293577981651376,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.08256880733944953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.009174311926605503,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected New York City mayor in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7002/Who-will-be-elected-New-York-City-mayor-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4666666666666666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.22499999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.07499999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.04999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.024999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.016666666666666663,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Max Rose"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zach Iscol"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Catsimatidis"",""probability"":0.008333333333333331,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual elected Mayor of New York, NY in the 2021 general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. +"Will a woman be elected U.S. president in 2024?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7013/Will-a-woman-be-elected-US-president-in-2024","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5800000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a female candidate wins the 2024 U.S. presidential election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ Absent such filing or decision, the market will not resolve to Yes, notwithstand PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2023 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. +"Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in the 2022 NY Democratic Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7015/Will-Alexandria-Ocasio-Cortez-run-in-the-2022-NY-Democratic-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a ballot-listed candidate in the 2022 Democratic primary election for Senator from New York. Should no such primary election be held, due to Ms. Ocasio-Cortez running unopposed, this market will resolve as Yes. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5841584158415841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4158415841584158,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7017/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-North-Carolina-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 North Carolina general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ Note: A typographical error in the title was corrected to Mar. 16, the End Date PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.79,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Florida in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7024/Which-party-will-win-the-US-Senate-election-in-Florida-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.78,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The winner of the 2022 Florida general election for U.S. Senate shall be the nominee of, or have a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference of, the party identified in the contract. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -136,26 +136,26 @@ Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopp PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.73,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). +"Will Benjamin Netanyahu be prime minister of Israel on June 30, 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7035/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-June-30,-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This contract shall resolve to Yes in the event that Benjamin Netanyahu is prime minister of Israel upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). Should that Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 06/30/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.1588785046728972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.3644859813084112,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.25233644859813087,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.13084112149532712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. +"How many seats will Israel's Likud Party win in the next Knesset election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7036/How-many-seats-will-Israel's-Likud-Party-win-in-the-next-Knesset-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""23 or fewer"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""24 or 25"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""26 or 27"",""probability"":0.10891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""28 or 29"",""probability"":0.3465346534653465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""30 or 31"",""probability"":0.26732673267326734,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""32 or 33"",""probability"":0.13861386138613863,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or more"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats in the Knesset won by the Likud Party in Israel's next legislative election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.92,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.07999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. +"Will there be enough signatures by Mar. 17 for a vote on recall of Gov. Newsom?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that proponents of the recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom shall, by March 17, 2021, file recall petitions sufficient to trigger a recall election. Review of any such timely filed petitions for sufficiency to trigger such recall election need not be complete by March 17, 2021. Any extension of time that may be granted to recall efforts currently underway shall have no bearing on the resolution of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.4473684210526315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.3508771929824561,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.043859649122807015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.026315789473684206,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.017543859649122806,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.008771929824561403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). +"Who will be chancellor of Germany on Dec. 31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7040/Who-will-be-chancellor-of-Germany-on-Dec-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.4454545454545453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.29090909090909084,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.04545454545454544,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.027272727272727264,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.018181818181818177,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christian Lindner"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katja Kipping"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Gauland"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernd Riexinger"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.009090909090909089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the Chancellor of Germany upon the End Date listed below, according to the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""). Should that settlement source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 6:00 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5140186915887851,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.14018691588785046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7041/Who-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-Republican-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kirk Cox"",""probability"":0.5046728971962617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Snyder"",""probability"":0.21495327102803738,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Glenn Youngkin"",""probability"":0.16822429906542055,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amanda Chase"",""probability"":0.08411214953271028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neil Chatterjee"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmett Hanger"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Stanley"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -163,22 +163,22 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.24999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.1442307692307692,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09615384615384613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09615384615384613,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.057692307692307675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.057692307692307675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.03846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.03846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.03846153846153845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.028846153846153837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.019230769230769225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.019230769230769225,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. +"Who will win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.23853211009174305,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.13761467889908252,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.09174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kristi Noem"",""probability"":0.09174311926605502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.06422018348623852,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.05504587155963301,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.04587155963302751,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.036697247706422007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mitt Romney"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.027522935779816505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.018348623853211003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0.018348623853211003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. +"Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7057/Who-will-win-the-2024-Democratic-presidential-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.4,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hillary Clinton"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person who wins the 2024 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Replacement of the nominee for any reason prior to election day will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.044642857142857144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.26785714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.3482142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.16964285714285712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.017857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. +"How many seats will Holland's VVD win in the next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7060/How-many-seats-will-Holland's-VVD-win-in-the-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""33 or fewer"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""34 or 35"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""36 or 37"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""38 or 39"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40 or 41"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42 or 43"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of parliamentary seats won by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) in the Netherlands' next general election. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.49504950495049505,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.0891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07920792079207921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.0594059405940594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected mayor of Boston in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7068/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Boston-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Michelle Wu"",""probability"":0.5,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Janey"",""probability"":0.24038461538461536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Barros"",""probability"":0.09615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Campbell"",""probability"":0.07692307692307693,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Santiago"",""probability"":0.05769230769230769,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Essaibi-George"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marty Walsh"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Boston, MA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.98,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. +"Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7072/Will-the-Senate-censure-Ted-Cruz-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.99,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the U.S. Senate formally censures (sometimes referred to as condemnation or denouncement) Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) before the End Date listed below. A censure vote will be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -190,7 +190,7 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. +"Will Biden policy to raise minimum wage to $15 per hour in 2021 succeed?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7075/Will-Biden-policy-to-raise-minimum-wage-to-$15-per-hour-in-2021-succeed","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.97,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $15 or more per hour at any point between the launch of this market and the End Date listed below, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 @@ -198,11 +198,11 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.82,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.18000000000000005,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. +"Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2022 Arkansas GOP gubernatorial primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7082/Will-Sarah-Huckabee-Sanders-win-the-2022-Arkansas-GOP-gubernatorial-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.83,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.17000000000000004,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Sarah Huckabee Sanders wins the 2022 Arkansas Republican gubernatorial primary election. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.96,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. +"Will the District of Columbia become a U.S. state in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7083/Will-the-District-of-Columbia-become-a-US-state-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.95,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the territory known upon launch of this market as the District of Columbia is admitted to the Union (regardless of name change) as a single state, and such admission has taken effect by the End Date listed below. The exclusion of portions of the present District of Columbia from the territory admitted to the Union shall have no bearing on the settlement of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 @@ -210,7 +210,7 @@ End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.29,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. +"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Republican Senate primary?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7087/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Republican-Senate-primary","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jane Timken"",""probability"":0.3364485981308411,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Mandel"",""probability"":0.26168224299065423,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""J. D. Vance"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Stivers"",""probability"":0.05607476635514018,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Jordan"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Turner"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rob Portman"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Husted"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mary Taylor"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Renacci"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Frank LaRose"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brad Wenstrup"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Warren Davidson"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Republican primary election for U.S. Senate. Should no such primary election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the primary election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -237,22 +237,22 @@ Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, th PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.5357142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.3482142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. +"Who will win the 2021 special election in Louisiana's 2nd District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7105/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Louisiana's-2nd-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Troy Carter"",""probability"":0.495798319327731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Karen Peterson"",""probability"":0.38655462184873945,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gary Chambers"",""probability"":0.01680672268907563,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chelsea Ardoin"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Belden Batiste"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claston Bernard"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Harold John"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Christopher Johnson"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brandon Jolicoeur"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lloyd Kelly"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greg Lirette"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mindy McConnell"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Desiree Ontiveros"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenette Porter"",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sheldon Vincent Sr."",""probability"":0.008403361344537815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Louisiana's 2nd Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 Latin American leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7106/Which-of-these-10-Latin-American-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lenín Moreno"",""probability"":0.8952380952380952,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Ortega"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Francisco Sagasti"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sebastián Piñera"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iván Duque"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. M. López Obrador"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Fernández"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luis Arce"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolás Maduro"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the office he holds upon launch of this market on February 4, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.5346534653465347,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4653465346534653,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Georgia?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7107/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Georgia","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.53,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.47,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Georgia Senate election, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5277777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.10185185185185185,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.037037037037037035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. +"Which of these 10 Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7110/Which-of-these-10-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Hassan Rouhani"",""probability"":0.5181818181818181,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Benjamin Netanyahu"",""probability"":0.24545454545454545,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Morrison"",""probability"":0.09999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kim Jong-un"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.03636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Moon Jae-in"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Narendra Modi"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joko Widodo"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.00909090909090909,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/11/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 5, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. @@ -264,24 +264,24 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/11/2021 12:22 PM (ET) Note: If resolving this market under the 4th paragraph of the Rules, the last names of Xi Jinping, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-In and Kim Jong-Un are ""Xi"", ""Suga"", “Moon” and “Kim”, respectively. ",,3 -"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.9,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.09999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021. +"Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7111/Will-Alexander-Lukashenko-be-President-of-Belarus-through-the-end-of-the-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.89,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.10999999999999999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Alexander Lukashenko serves as Head of State of the Republic of Belarus without interruption throughout the calendar year 2021. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. Mr. Lukashenko shall be considered no longer to hold office on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that office. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 4:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6274509803921569,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.37254901960784315,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Arizona?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7112/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Arizona","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.6237623762376238,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.37623762376237624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Arizona Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.13392857142857142,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.18749999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.21428571428571425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.17857142857142858,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.08928571428571429,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Marty Walsh as Secretary of Labor by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7114/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Marty-Walsh-as-Secretary-of-Labor-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.18095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.19047619047619047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.19999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.15238095238095237,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Marty Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Walsh be confirmed to position of Secretary of Labor in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Walsh to the position of Secretary of Labor be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.898148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009259259259259259,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Xavier Becerra as HHS Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7115/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Xavier-Becerra-as-HHS-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.02803738317757009,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 to 53"",""probability"":0.8878504672897195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 to 57"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 to 61"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 65"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 to 69"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 77"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""78 to 81"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""82 or more"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Xavier Becerra to the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. @@ -296,22 +296,22 @@ Created On: 03/08/2021 9:29 AM (ET) NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.34615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.3365384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.16346153846153846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). +"Who will win the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7116/Who-will-win-the-2021-Manhattan-District-Attorney-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Alvin Bragg"",""probability"":0.3214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tali Weinstein"",""probability"":0.31249999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tahanie Aboushi"",""probability"":0.15178571428571427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eliza Orlins"",""probability"":0.125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Quart"",""probability"":0.03571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lucy Lang"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyrus Vance"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Florence"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Crotty"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 election to the office of New York County District Attorney (also known as 'Manhattan District Attorney'). Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.16999999999999998,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.11999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.039999999999999994,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.029999999999999992,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.019999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 African leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7117/Which-of-these-10-African-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Abdelmadjid Tebboune"",""probability"":0.34,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Muhammadu Buhari"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Uhuru Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abiy Ahmed"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmerson Mnangagwa"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nana Akufo-Addo"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Félix Tshisekedi"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Paul Kagame"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 9, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi's last name shall be considered to begin with the letter ""S"". PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. +"Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be re-elected to the House in 2022?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7118/Will-Marjorie-Taylor-Greene-be-re-elected-to-the-House-in-2022","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.64,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.36,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) is re-elected to the U.S. House of Representatives from any Congressional district in the 2022 election. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.45,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. +"How many Biden Cabinet members will Josh Hawley vote against?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7119/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-Josh-Hawley-vote-against","PredictIt","[{""name"":""12 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 02/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of recorded Nay votes cast by Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) on confirmation of nominees to the U.S. Cabinet. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- @@ -326,13 +326,13 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/09/2021 2:43 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: This market concerns Senator Hawley's votes on all of President Biden's Cabinet nominees to the listed positions, including those that have already been confirmed. ",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed Assistant Attorney General for Antitrust?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7120/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-Assistant-Attorney-General-for-Antitrust","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Jonathan Kanter"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Renata Hesse"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Sallet"",""probability"":0.15,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonia Pfaffenroth"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jon Leibowitz"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Susan Davies"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Slaughter"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steven Sunshine"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Deborah Feinstein"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Terrell McSweeny"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dave Gelfand"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. +"Who will win the 2021 Ecuadorian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7122/Who-will-win-the-2021-Ecuadorian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Andrés Arauz"",""probability"":0.85,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Guillermo Lasso"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yaku Pérez"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Ecuador. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -344,21 +344,21 @@ The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other p PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4205607476635513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.12149532710280371,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.09345794392523363,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.08411214953271025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.06542056074766354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06542056074766354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.05607476635514017,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.03738317757009345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.018691588785046724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these ten G20 leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7124/Which-of-these-ten-G20-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Suga Yoshihide"",""probability"":0.4285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.12380952380952379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau"",""probability"":0.10476190476190474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.07619047619047617,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro"",""probability"":0.06666666666666665,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa"",""probability"":0.04761904761904761,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.038095238095238085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan"",""probability"":0.028571428571428564,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping"",""probability"":0.019047619047619042,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he holds upon launch of this market on February 11, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical family name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. The family names of President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide are ""Xi"" and ""Suga"", respectively. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7126/Who-will-win-the-2022-Ohio-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tim Ryan"",""probability"":0.63,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Acton"",""probability"":0.26,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joyce Beatty"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nan Whaley"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emilia Sykes"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Ohio Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6407766990291263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.1359223300970874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.1262135922330097,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.0679611650485437,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7127/Who-will-win-the-2022-Pennsylvania-Democratic-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""John Fetterman"",""probability"":0.6470588235294118,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conor Lamb"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malcolm Kenyatta"",""probability"":0.12745098039215685,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Madeleine Dean"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim Kenney"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Sestak"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Pennsylvania Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.25,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.12,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. +"How many seats will the SNP win in Scotland's next election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7128/How-many-seats-will-the-SNP-win-in-Scotland's-next-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""62 or fewer"",""probability"":0.08653846153846154,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""63 or 64"",""probability"":0.06730769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 or 66"",""probability"":0.11538461538461538,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""67 or 68"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""69 or 70"",""probability"":0.23076923076923075,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 or 72"",""probability"":0.17307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""73 or 74"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or 76"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 or 78"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""79 or more"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the next election to the Scottish parliament. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -366,7 +366,7 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.57,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7130/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-New-Hampshire","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.59,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 New Hampshire U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -374,11 +374,11 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5148514851485149,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.48514851485148514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. +"Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Wisconsin?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7132/Which-party-will-win-the-2022-US-Senate-election-in-Wisconsin","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5247524752475248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.4752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2022 Wisconsin U.S. Senate election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.39999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.18095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.0857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.06666666666666667,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.05714285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.03809523809523809,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.019047619047619046,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed OMB Director?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7134/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-OMB-Director","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Shalanda Young"",""probability"":0.5925925925925924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nani Coloretti"",""probability"":0.1296296296296296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann O'Leary"",""probability"":0.0648148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sarah Bianchi"",""probability"":0.0648148148148148,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Lu"",""probability"":0.03703703703703703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gene Sperling"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martha Coven"",""probability"":0.02777777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sonal Shah"",""probability"":0.018518518518518514,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Neera Tanden"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heather Boushey"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jared Bernstein"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Jones"",""probability"":0.009259259259259257,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget following launch of this market on February 22, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Director of the Office of Management and Budget by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. @@ -394,7 +394,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 02/25/2021 10:57 AM (ET) In response to trader inquiries: This market is solely about whether Joe Biden will resign from and leave the office of the Presidency of the United States before the End Date. No scenario other than Mr. Biden resigning from and leaving office before the End Date will cause this market to resolve to Yes. Mr. Biden's departure from office for any other reason will not cause this market to resolve to Yes. If Mr. Biden announces a resignation effective at a future date, but does not leave the office of the Presidency by the End Date, this market will resolve to No. ",,3 -"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.1509433962264151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.23584905660377356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.24528301886792453,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.1320754716981132,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.018867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. +"How many valid Newsom recall signatures reported in next California update?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7137/How-many-valid-Newsom-recall-signatures-reported-in-next-California-update","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Fewer than 1M"",""probability"":0.11320754716981131,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1M to 1.05M"",""probability"":0.23584905660377356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.05M to 1.1M"",""probability"":0.25471698113207547,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.1M to 1.15M"",""probability"":0.14150943396226415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.15M to 1.2M"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.2M to 1.25M"",""probability"":0.056603773584905655,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.25M to 1.3M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.3M to 1.35M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.35M to 1.4M"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""1.4M or more"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies, in the current effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom (filed by Orrin E. Heatlie), the cumulative total number of valid signatures that have been officially reported by the California Secretary of State in its next status report subsequent to the launch of this market on February 23, 2021. At the time of the launch of this market, signature validation reports are made available at https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/recalls/current-recall-efforts. Should the result fall precisely on the threshold between two contracts, this market will resolve to the contract with the higher numerical range. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. @@ -405,7 +405,7 @@ Supplementary Comment(s) Created On: 03/09/2021 8:40 PM (ET) In response to trader inquiry: The ""next status report"" referred to in the Rules will be the Ninth Report when it is released. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 or 51"",""probability"":0.017857142857142856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52 or 53"",""probability"":0.3214285714285714,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 or 55"",""probability"":0.5803571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or 57"",""probability"":0.02678571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or 59"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or 61"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 or 63"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""64 or 65"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 or more"",""probability"":0.008928571428571428,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Deb Haaland as Interior Secretary by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7138/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Deb-Haaland-as-Interior-Secretary-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""49 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50 or 51"",""probability"":0.019230769230769232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""52 or 53"",""probability"":0.34615384615384615,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54 or 55"",""probability"":0.5384615384615385,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""56 or 57"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""58 or 59"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60 or 61"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 or 63"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""64 or 65"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""66 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/08/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Rep. Deb Haaland (D-NM) to the position of Secretary of the Interior, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Any vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market. @@ -420,37 +420,37 @@ Created On: 03/08/2021 9:28 AM (ET) NOTICE: WE ARE EXPECTING VERY HEAVY TRADING IN THIS MARKET DURING THE SENATE CONFIRMATION VOTE. Offers are processed in the order in which they are received. This means that an offer you submit when a certain price is showing may not be filled at that price -- or at all -- because of all the offers already submitted ahead of yours. Do not resubmit offers that are already in process. See also Section 3 iii of PredictIt's Terms and Conditions. ",,3 -"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. +"Who will be serving as California Attorney General on May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7139/Who-will-be-serving-as-California-Attorney-General-on-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Rob Bonta"",""probability"":0.43,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Darrell Steinberg"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Goodwin Liu"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Adam Schiff"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Becerra"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Chavez Zbur"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeff Rosen"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Diana Becton"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the individual serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below. Should no one be serving as Attorney General of the State of California on the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.09900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009900990099009901,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.019801980198019802,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.039603960396039604,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.12871287128712872,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.18811881188118812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.24752475247524752,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.16831683168316833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.0891089108910891,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm William Burns as CIA Director by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7140/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-William-Burns-as-CIA-Director-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""70 or fewer"",""probability"":0.13084112149532712,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.018691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.04672897196261682,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.11214953271028036,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.18691588785046728,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.2336448598130841,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 to 94"",""probability"":0.1588785046728972,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""95 or more"",""probability"":0.09345794392523364,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of William Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Burns be confirmed to position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""70 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""95 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Burns to the position of Director of the Central Intelligence Agency be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.72,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. +"Will Adam Kinzinger win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Illinois House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7141/Will-Adam-Kinzinger-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Illinois-House-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.76,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Adam Kinzinger wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Illinois. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.31,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.69,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. +"Will Andrew Cuomo be Governor of New York at the end of the year?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7142/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-be-Governor-of-New-York-at-the-end-of-the-year","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo serves as Governor of New York upon the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5922330097087378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.08737864077669902,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.0679611650485437,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.038834951456310676,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.029126213592233007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.019417475728155338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. +"Which of these 10 European leaders will leave office next?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7144/Which-of-these-10-European-leaders-will-leave-office-next","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Angela Merkel"",""probability"":0.5504587155963302,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrej Babiš"",""probability"":0.12844036697247707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Rutte"",""probability"":0.10091743119266054,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mario Draghi"",""probability"":0.06422018348623854,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexander Lukashenko"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pedro Sánchez"",""probability"":0.03669724770642201,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson"",""probability"":0.027522935779816512,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Viktor Orbán"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.018348623853211007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the first individual, among those named in the contracts in this market, to cease formally to hold the position of head of state or government that he or she holds upon launch of this market on February 26, 2021. No additional contracts shall be added to this market following its launch. PredictIt shall rely upon the United Nations' Protocol and Liaison Service's list of heads of state and government, located upon launch of this market at protocol.un.org/dgacm/pls/site.nsf/HSHGNFA.xsp (the ""Settlement Source""), in order to resolve this market. An incumbent shall be considered no longer to hold his or her position on the day that the Settlement Source provides for the vacancy or appointment of another person to that position. Should the Settlement Source not be available or not appear to be updated in a timely manner, PredictIt may at its sole discretion await its availability or select an alternate settlement source. In the event that two or more of the listed individuals are replaced as head of state or government, or their positions become vacant, on the same calendar day, the contract listing the candidate with the first alphabetical last name, as presented in the contract, among the individuals in question will resolve as Yes. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.41904761904761906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.21904761904761905,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.18095238095238095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.10476190476190476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. +"Who will win the 2021 Peruvian presidential election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7145/Who-will-win-the-2021-Peruvian-presidential-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yonhy Lescano"",""probability"":0.5490196078431373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rafael López Aliaga"",""probability"":0.20588235294117646,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""George Forsyth"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Verónika Mendoza"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keiko Fujimori"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Hernando de Soto"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Urresti"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""César Acuña"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alberto Beingolea"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julio Guzmán"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ollanta Humala"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Salaverry"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 presidential election in Peru. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.028301886792452827,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.04716981132075472,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.18867924528301888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.2830188679245283,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.40566037735849053,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Katherine Tai as USTR by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7146/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Katherine-Tai-as-USTR-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""67 or fewer"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 to 88"",""probability"":0.19,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""89 to 91"",""probability"":0.27,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""92 or more"",""probability"":0.39,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Katherine Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Tai be confirmed to position of United States Trade Representative in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""67 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""92 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Tai to the position of United States Trade Representative be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. @@ -463,7 +463,7 @@ A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.8155339805825242,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.1359223300970874,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below. +"How many Biden Cabinet members will be confirmed by March 16?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7149/How-many-Biden-Cabinet-members-will-be-confirmed-by-March-16","PredictIt","[{""name"":""11 or 12"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""13 or 14"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""15 or 16"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""17 or 18"",""probability"":0.8867924528301886,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""19 or 20"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""21 or 22"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""23 or more"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of nominees of the current administration who will have been confirmed to their respective positions in the U.S. Cabinet by the End Date listed below. For purposes of resolving this market, the Cabinet shall be understood to consist of the following 23 positions – The Secretaries of: Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Education, Energy, Health & Human Services, Homeland Security, Housing & Urban Development, Interior, Labor, State, Transportation, Treasury and Veterans Affairs -- And the Attorney General, US Ambassador to the United Nations, Director of National Intelligence and US Trade Representative -- @@ -472,33 +472,33 @@ Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/16/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009708737864077669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.04854368932038835,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.10679611650485436,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.18446601941747573,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.20388349514563106,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.20388349514563106,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.1553398058252427,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.0679611650485437,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. +"How many Senators vote to confirm Isabel Guzman as SBA Administrator by 3/31?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7150/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Isabel-Guzman-as-SBA-Administrator-by-3-31","PredictIt","[{""name"":""61 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""62 to 64"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65 to 67"",""probability"":0.009433962264150943,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""68 to 70"",""probability"":0.03773584905660377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""71 to 73"",""probability"":0.08490566037735849,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""74 to 76"",""probability"":0.1509433962264151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""77 to 79"",""probability"":0.20754716981132074,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""80 to 82"",""probability"":0.23584905660377356,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""83 to 85"",""probability"":0.18867924528301888,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""86 or more"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Isabel Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. Should no confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Ms. Guzman be confirmed to position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range ""61 or fewer"" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range ""86 or more"" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Ms. Guzman to the position of Administrator of the Small Business Administration be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote shall be used to resolve this market. The outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes shall have no impact on the resolution of this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 03/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6380952380952382,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.20952380952380953,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.07619047619047618,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.02857142857142857,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.009523809523809523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. +"Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7151/Who-will-win-the-2021-special-election-in-Texas'-6th-District","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Susan Wright"",""probability"":0.6634615384615384,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jana Sanchez"",""probability"":0.18269230769230768,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Harrison"",""probability"":0.04807692307692308,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jake Ellzey"",""probability"":0.038461538461538464,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Rodimer"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Katrina Pierson"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sery Kim"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lydia Bean"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shawn Lassiter"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2021 special election for U.S. Representative from Texas' 6th Congressional District, whether via an outright majority in the first round or in the subsequent runoff, should one be necessary. Should no such election be held, due to a single candidate running unopposed, that candidate will be considered the winner of the election for purposes of this market. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.17,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7154/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-Seattle-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Lorena González"",""probability"":0.46,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Colleen Echohawk"",""probability"":0.16,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bruce Harrell"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lance Randall"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jenny Durkan"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of Seattle, WA in the first mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. +"Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7155/Who-will-be-the-next-Senate-confirmed-US-Ambassador-to-China","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Nicholas Burns"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Shambaugh"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlene Barshefsky"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Claire McCaskill"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Kritenbrink"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rahm Emanuel"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of United States Ambassador to the People's Republic of China following launch of this market on March 3, 2021. Should no one be confirmed to the position of Ambassador by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No. A vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Georgia Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7157/Who-will-win-the-2022-Georgia-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Doug Collins"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Herschel Walker"",""probability"":0.22,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Carr"",""probability"":0.06,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kelly Loeffler"",""probability"":0.04,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""David Perdue"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoff Duncan"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Kemp"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Georgia Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7358490566037735,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.10377358490566037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09433962264150944,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.0660377358490566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. +"Which state will hold the first Democratic primary for the 2024 nominee?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7158/Which-state-will-hold-the-first-Democratic-primary-for-the-2024-nominee","PredictIt","[{""name"":""New Hampshire"",""probability"":0.7636363636363636,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nevada"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""South Carolina"",""probability"":0.09090909090909091,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Iowa"",""probability"":0.054545454545454536,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 03/09/2021. The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the U.S. state that holds the first statewide primary election for the award or selection of delegates to determine the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 presidential election. Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions, and ""beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded, shall not be considered when resolving this market. The timing of absentee, mail-in or other options that may be available prior to the date of the primary election shall not be considered when resolving this market. @@ -513,7 +513,7 @@ In response to trader inquiry: The second paragraph of the Rules means that the * Events run by the Democratic Party, such as caucuses or conventions; and * ""Beauty contest"" primaries where no delegates will be selected or awarded ",,3 -"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.66,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.33999999999999997,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. +"Will Louis DeJoy be Postmaster General on September 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7159/Will-Louis-DeJoy-be-Postmaster-General-on-September-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.68,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.31999999999999995,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Louis DeJoy serves in the position of U.S. Postmaster General on the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 09/01/2021 12:01 AM (ET) ",,3 @@ -522,11 +522,11 @@ Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, upon the End PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.37,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.2,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 Missouri Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7162/Who-will-win-the-2022-Missouri-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Eric Schmitt"",""probability"":0.33,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Greitens"",""probability"":0.24,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jason Smith"",""probability"":0.18,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ann Wagner"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Kehoe"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jay Ashcroft"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Billy Long"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Roy Blunt"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carl Edwards"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Missouri Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.42,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.23,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. +"Who will win the 2022 North Carolina Republican Senate nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7163/Who-will-win-the-2022-North-Carolina-Republican-Senate-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Mark Walker"",""probability"":0.49,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lara Trump"",""probability"":0.21,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Budd"",""probability"":0.13,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pat McCrory"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Forest"",""probability"":0.03,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Richard Burr"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mark Meadows"",""probability"":0.01,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 North Carolina Republican nomination for U.S. Senate. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 @@ -534,29 +534,33 @@ PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.86,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.14,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. +"Will Colin Kahl be confirmed as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7165/Will-Colin-Kahl-be-confirmed-as-Undersecretary-of-Defense-for-Policy-by-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.8,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.19999999999999996,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market will resolve to Yes in the event that Colin Kahl is confirmed by the Senate to the position of Undersecretary of Defense for Policy by the End Date listed below. Any confirmation vote that may be underway, but have not concluded, by the End Date shall not be considered for the purpose of resolving this market. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 05/01/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.5277777777777777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.2037037037037037,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.14814814814814814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.06481481481481481,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). +"How many seats will the CDU win in the Baden-Württemberg state election?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7166/How-many-seats-will-the-CDU-win-in-the-Baden-Württemberg-state-election","PredictIt","[{""name"":""38 or fewer"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""39"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""40"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""41"",""probability"":0.028846153846153844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""42"",""probability"":0.923076923076923,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""43"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""44 or more"",""probability"":0.009615384615384616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the number of seats won by the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) in the next election to the Baden-Württemberg state legislature (Landtag). PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.02,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.05,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.09,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.11,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.08,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.07,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.28,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). +"How many tie-breaking Senate votes will Kamala Harris cast in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7168/How-many-tie-breaking-Senate-votes-will-Kamala-Harris-cast-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""3 votes"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""4 or 5 votes"",""probability"":0.049019607843137254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""6 or 7 votes"",""probability"":0.058823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""8 or 9 votes"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""10 or 11 votes"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""12 or 13 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""14 or 15 votes"",""probability"":0.10784313725490197,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""16 or 17 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""18 or 19 votes"",""probability"":0.09803921568627451,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20 or more"",""probability"":0.30392156862745096,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the total number of tie-breaking votes cast by Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2021 calendar year, in her role as ex officio President of the U.S. Senate, according to the ""Tie Votes"" webpage on the U.S. Senate website (located upon launch of this market at https://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/reference/four_column_table/Tie_Votes.htm). Should that source be unavailable or deemed by PredictIt to be out of date upon the End Date listed below, PredictIt may at its sole discretion either await its restoration and/or update, or select the most appropriate alternate source. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5900000000000001,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. +"Will Andrew Cuomo resign before May 1?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7169/Will-Andrew-Cuomo-resign-before-May-1","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Andrew Cuomo resigns from, and ceases to hold, the office of Governor of New York by the End Date listed below. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. End Date: 04/30/2021 11:59 PM (ET) ",,3 -"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.52,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.48,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . +"Will Anthony Gonzalez win the 2022 GOP nomination in any Ohio House district?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7170/Will-Anthony-Gonzalez-win-the-2022-GOP-nomination-in-any-Ohio-House-district","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.38,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.62,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that Rep. Anthony Gonzalez wins the 2022 Republican nomination for Representative in Congress from any U.S. House district in Ohio . PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 -"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.8571428571428571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.14285714285714285,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. +"Who will be elected mayor of St. Louis in 2021?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7171/Who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-St-Louis-in-2021","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Tishaura Jones"",""probability"":0.9117647058823529,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cara Spencer"",""probability"":0.08823529411764705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time. PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. +",,3 +"Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?","https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination","PredictIt","[{""name"":""Letitia James"",""probability"":0.3627450980392157,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathy Hochul"",""probability"":0.2647058823529412,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0.16666666666666669,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""A. Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.0784313725490196,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Thomas DiNapoli"",""probability"":0.06862745098039216,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.029411764705882353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Suozzi"",""probability"":0.0196078431372549,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill de Blasio"",""probability"":0.00980392156862745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alessandra Biaggi"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jumaane Williams"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York. +PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action. +PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final. ",,3 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/predictit-questions.json b/data/predictit-questions.json index a681066..e008f8b 100644 --- a/data/predictit-questions.json +++ b/data/predictit-questions.json @@ -6,12 +6,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.6862745098039215, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.3137254901960784, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -25,22 +25,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5238095238095238, + "probability": 0.5192307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4380952380952381, + "probability": 0.4423076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -54,12 +54,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5544554455445545, + "probability": 0.5346534653465347, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.44554455445544555, + "probability": 0.4653465346534653, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -73,12 +73,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.58, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -92,47 +92,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "22 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "25", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26", - "probability": 0.29906542056074764, + "probability": 0.29090909090909095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "27", - "probability": 0.6355140186915887, + "probability": 0.6454545454545455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "29", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.009090909090909092, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -146,12 +146,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -165,12 +165,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -184,12 +184,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -222,12 +222,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -241,12 +241,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.900990099009901, + "probability": 0.8910891089108911, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.10891089108910891, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -279,72 +279,72 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.4862385321100917, + "probability": 0.4666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.2293577981651376, + "probability": 0.22499999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.08256880733944953, + "probability": 0.07499999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06422018348623854, + "probability": 0.06666666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.03669724770642201, + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, + "probability": 0.024999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.018348623853211007, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.024999999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.016666666666666663, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carlos Menchaca", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Loree Sutton", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.009174311926605503, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -396,12 +396,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -434,12 +434,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -472,12 +472,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5841584158415841, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.4158415841584158, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -597,12 +597,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -645,12 +645,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.72, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.27, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -664,52 +664,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "23 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "24 or 25", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "26 or 27", - "probability": 0.1588785046728972, + "probability": 0.10891089108910891, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "28 or 29", - "probability": 0.3644859813084112, + "probability": 0.3465346534653465, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "30 or 31", - "probability": 0.25233644859813087, + "probability": 0.26732673267326734, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "32 or 33", - "probability": 0.13084112149532712, + "probability": 0.13861386138613863, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.02803738317757009, + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.018691588785046728, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or more", - "probability": 0.009345794392523364, + "probability": 0.019801980198019802, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -723,12 +723,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.07999999999999996, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -742,82 +742,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.4473684210526315, + "probability": 0.4454545454545453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3508771929824561, + "probability": 0.29090909090909084, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.043859649122807015, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.026315789473684206, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.04545454545454544, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.04545454545454544, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Angela Merkel", + "probability": 0.04545454545454544, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Olaf Scholz", + "probability": 0.027272727272727264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.017543859649122806, + "probability": 0.018181818181818177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christian Lindner", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katja Kipping", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Gauland", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernd Riexinger", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.008771929824561403, + "probability": 0.009090909090909089, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -831,17 +831,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kirk Cox", - "probability": 0.5140186915887851, + "probability": 0.5046728971962617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.2336448598130841, + "probability": 0.21495327102803738, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.14018691588785046, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -894,82 +894,82 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.24999999999999994, + "probability": 0.23853211009174305, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.1442307692307692, + "probability": 0.13761467889908252, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09615384615384613, + "probability": 0.09174311926605502, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.09615384615384613, + "probability": 0.09174311926605502, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.057692307692307675, + "probability": 0.06422018348623852, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.057692307692307675, + "probability": 0.05504587155963301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.03846153846153845, + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.03846153846153845, + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.03846153846153845, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, + "probability": 0.04587155963302751, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, + "probability": 0.036697247706422007, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mike Pompeo", + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitt Romney", + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.028846153846153837, + "probability": 0.027522935779816505, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.019230769230769225, + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.019230769230769225, + "probability": 0.018348623853211003, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -983,7 +983,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -993,7 +993,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1003,7 +1003,7 @@ }, { "name": "Elizabeth Warren", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1027,37 +1027,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "33 or fewer", - "probability": 0.044642857142857144, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "34 or 35", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "36 or 37", - "probability": 0.26785714285714285, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "38 or 39", - "probability": 0.3482142857142857, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40 or 41", - "probability": 0.16964285714285712, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42 or 43", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1071,37 +1071,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.49504950495049505, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.24038461538461536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07920792079207921, + "probability": 0.07692307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, + "probability": 0.05769230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1115,12 +1115,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1153,12 +1153,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1191,12 +1191,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.82, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.18000000000000005, + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1210,12 +1210,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1248,67 +1248,67 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.3364485981308411, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.29, + "probability": 0.26168224299065423, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.2336448598130841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05607476635514018, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1467,77 +1467,77 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.5357142857142857, + "probability": 0.495798319327731, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.3482142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.38655462184873945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.01680672268907563, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Belden Batiste", + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Claston Bernard", + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.008403361344537815, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1551,52 +1551,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lenín Moreno", - "probability": 0.8867924528301886, + "probability": 0.8952380952380952, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Ortega", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Francisco Sagasti", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sebastián Piñera", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iván Duque", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. M. López Obrador", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Fernández", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luis Arce", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolás Maduro", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1610,12 +1610,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1629,52 +1629,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.5277777777777777, + "probability": 0.5181818181818181, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.24545454545454545, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.10185185185185185, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.09999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.037037037037037035, + "probability": 0.054545454545454536, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Suga Yoshihide", + "probability": 0.03636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.00909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1688,12 +1688,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1707,12 +1707,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6274509803921569, + "probability": 0.6237623762376238, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.37254901960784315, + "probability": 0.37623762376237624, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1726,52 +1726,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "probability": 0.18095238095238095, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.13392857142857142, + "probability": 0.15238095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.18749999999999997, + "probability": 0.19047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.21428571428571425, + "probability": 0.19999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.17857142857142858, + "probability": 0.15238095238095237, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.08928571428571429, + "probability": 0.07619047619047618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1785,52 +1785,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.02803738317757009, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 to 53", - "probability": 0.898148148148148, + "probability": 0.8878504672897195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 to 57", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 to 61", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 65", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 69", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "70 to 73", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 77", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 81", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "82 or more", - "probability": 0.009259259259259259, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1844,47 +1844,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.34615384615384615, + "probability": 0.3214285714285714, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.3365384615384615, + "probability": 0.31249999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.16346153846153846, + "probability": 0.15178571428571427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.04807692307692308, + "probability": 0.03571428571428571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.02678571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1898,52 +1898,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.19999999999999996, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.16999999999999998, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.11999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.039999999999999994, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1957,12 +1957,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2016,12 +2016,12 @@ }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.45, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2045,7 +2045,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2055,17 +2055,22 @@ }, { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Leibowitz", + "probability": 0.06, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Susan Davies", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2078,25 +2083,20 @@ "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Deborah Feinstein", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the next individual to receive Senate confirmation to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division following launch of this market on February 10, 2021.\nShould no one be confirmed to the position of Assistant Attorney General for the Department of Justice Antitrust Division by the End Date listed below, all contracts in this market shall resolve to No.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote shall be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 12/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n", @@ -2109,7 +2109,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2192,52 +2192,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.4205607476635513, + "probability": 0.4285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.12149532710280371, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.09345794392523363, + "probability": 0.12380952380952379, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.08411214953271025, + "probability": 0.10476190476190474, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.07619047619047617, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.06542056074766354, + "probability": 0.06666666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.06542056074766354, + "probability": 0.06666666666666665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.05607476635514017, + "probability": 0.04761904761904761, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, + "probability": 0.038095238095238085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.03738317757009345, + "probability": 0.028571428571428564, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.018691588785046724, + "probability": 0.019047619047619042, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2251,12 +2251,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amy Acton", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2285,32 +2285,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6407766990291263, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.6470588235294118, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.1262135922330097, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.0679611650485437, + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2324,52 +2324,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06730769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23076923076923075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.23076923076923075, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.17307692307692307, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2417,12 +2417,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2455,12 +2455,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.5148514851485149, + "probability": 0.5247524752475248, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.48514851485148514, + "probability": 0.4752475247524752, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2474,62 +2474,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.39999999999999997, + "probability": 0.5925925925925924, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.18095238095238095, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.0857142857142857, + "probability": 0.1296296296296296, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.0648148148148148, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sarah Bianchi", + "probability": 0.0648148148148148, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.06666666666666667, + "probability": 0.03703703703703703, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.05714285714285714, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.02777777777777777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.019047619047619046, + "probability": 0.018518518518518514, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.009259259259259257, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Heather Boushey", + "probability": 0.009259259259259257, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.009259259259259257, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "John Jones", + "probability": 0.009259259259259257, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2562,7 +2562,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1M", - "probability": 0.1509433962264151, + "probability": 0.11320754716981131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2572,12 +2572,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.05M to 1.1M", - "probability": 0.24528301886792453, + "probability": 0.25471698113207547, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.1M to 1.15M", - "probability": 0.1320754716981132, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2597,12 +2597,12 @@ }, { "name": "1.3M to 1.35M", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.35M to 1.4M", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.028301886792452827, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2621,52 +2621,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50 or 51", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52 or 53", - "probability": 0.3214285714285714, + "probability": 0.34615384615384615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54 or 55", - "probability": 0.5803571428571428, + "probability": 0.5384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56 or 57", - "probability": 0.02678571428571428, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or 59", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 or 61", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 or 63", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "64 or 65", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 or more", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2683,11 +2683,6 @@ "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Adam Schiff", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Darrell Steinberg", "probability": 0.07, @@ -2695,7 +2690,12 @@ }, { "name": "Goodwin Liu", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.07, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Adam Schiff", + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2729,52 +2729,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "70 or fewer", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.13084112149532712, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.019801980198019802, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.039603960396039604, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.12871287128712872, + "probability": 0.11214953271028036, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.18811881188118812, + "probability": 0.18691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.24752475247524752, + "probability": 0.2336448598130841, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 to 94", - "probability": 0.16831683168316833, + "probability": 0.1588785046728972, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "95 or more", - "probability": 0.0891089108910891, + "probability": 0.09345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2788,12 +2788,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2807,12 +2807,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2826,52 +2826,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5922330097087378, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.5504587155963302, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.08737864077669902, + "probability": 0.12844036697247707, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mark Rutte", + "probability": 0.10091743119266054, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.0679611650485437, + "probability": 0.06422018348623854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.03669724770642201, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.027522935779816512, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.018348623853211007, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2885,62 +2885,62 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.41904761904761906, + "probability": 0.5490196078431373, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.21904761904761905, + "probability": 0.20588235294117646, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.18095238095238095, + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Hernando de Soto", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2954,52 +2954,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "67 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.04716981132075472, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 to 88", - "probability": 0.18867924528301888, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "89 to 91", - "probability": 0.2830188679245283, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "92 or more", - "probability": 0.40566037735849053, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3052,37 +3052,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "11 or 12", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13 or 14", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15 or 16", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17 or 18", - "probability": 0.8155339805825242, + "probability": 0.8867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19 or 20", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.0660377358490566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21 or 22", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3096,52 +3096,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "61 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 to 67", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.04854368932038835, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.10679611650485436, + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 to 76", - "probability": 0.18446601941747573, + "probability": 0.1509433962264151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 to 79", - "probability": 0.20388349514563106, + "probability": 0.20754716981132074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "80 to 82", - "probability": 0.20388349514563106, + "probability": 0.23584905660377356, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "83 to 85", - "probability": 0.1553398058252427, + "probability": 0.18867924528301888, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "86 or more", - "probability": 0.0679611650485437, + "probability": 0.0660377358490566, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3155,47 +3155,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.6380952380952382, + "probability": 0.6634615384615384, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.20952380952380953, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.07619047619047618, + "probability": 0.18269230769230768, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "name": "Jake Ellzey", + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katrina Pierson", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sery Kim", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lydia Bean", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Shawn Lassiter", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3209,17 +3209,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3243,32 +3243,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.62, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Shambaugh", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlene Barshefsky", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rahm Emanuel", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Kritenbrink", + "probability": 0.03, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rahm Emanuel", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3282,7 +3282,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3291,8 +3291,8 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Geoff Duncan", - "probability": 0.05, + "name": "Chris Carr", + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3301,12 +3301,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Chris Carr", - "probability": 0.04, + "name": "David Perdue", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "David Perdue", + "name": "Geoff Duncan", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -3326,22 +3326,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.7358490566037735, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.7636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.09433962264150944, + "probability": 0.09090909090909091, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "South Carolina", + "probability": 0.09090909090909091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, + "probability": 0.054545454545454536, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3355,12 +3355,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, + "probability": 0.31999999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3393,27 +3393,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.24, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3447,17 +3447,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.42, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.21, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -3510,12 +3510,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.19999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3529,37 +3529,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "38 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5277777777777777, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "39", - "probability": 0.2037037037037037, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40", - "probability": 0.14814814814814814, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "41", - "probability": 0.06481481481481481, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "42", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.923076923076923, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "43", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "44 or more", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3573,52 +3573,52 @@ "options": [ { "name": "3 votes", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4 or 5 votes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.058823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10 or 11 votes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14 or 15 votes", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.10784313725490197, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.28, + "probability": 0.30392156862745096, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3632,12 +3632,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3651,12 +3651,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3670,16 +3670,75 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tishaura Jones", - "probability": 0.8571428571428571, + "probability": 0.9117647058823529, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cara Spencer", - "probability": 0.14285714285714285, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the person elected Mayor of St. Louis, MO in the first general mayoral election held in 2021. PredictIt may determine how and when to settle the market based on all information available to PredictIt at the relevant time.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", "stars": 3 + }, + { + "title": "Who will win the 2022 New York Democratic gubernatorial nomination?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7173/Who-will-win-the-2022-New-York-Democratic-gubernatorial-nomination", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Letitia James", + "probability": 0.3627450980392157, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Kathy Hochul", + "probability": 0.2647058823529412, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Cuomo", + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "probability": 0.0784313725490196, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thomas DiNapoli", + "probability": 0.06862745098039216, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Andrew Yang", + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Tom Suozzi", + "probability": 0.0196078431372549, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Bill de Blasio", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Alessandra Biaggi", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jumaane Williams", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which identifies the winner of the 2022 Democratic nomination for Governor of New York.\nPredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\n", + "stars": 3 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.csv b/data/smarkets-questions.csv index 9b17833..61988b9 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.csv +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.csv @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ "title","url","platform","options","description","numforecasts","stars" "Next permanent leader of the Conservative Party, after Boris Johnson","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sajid Javid"",""probability"":0.03712990645192401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rory Stewart"",""probability"":0.0009644131545954288,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jacob Rees-Mogg"",""probability"":0.025364065965859772,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Penny Mordaunt"",""probability"":0.026810685697752915,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jeremy Hunt"",""probability"":0.10714630147555212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""James Cleverly"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.0643263574115151,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Tugendhat"",""probability"":0.06220464847140515,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Priti Patel"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amber Rudd"",""probability"":0.005400713665734401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Johnny Mercer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Gove"",""probability"":0.08033561577779921,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matthew Hancock"",""probability"":0.05217475166361269,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liz Truss"",""probability"":0.07416337158838847,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Williamson"",""probability"":0.03857652618381715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Leadsom"",""probability"":0.01379110811071463,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Geoffrey Cox"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tobias Ellwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Steve Baker"",""probability"":0.030089690423377377,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ruth Davidson"",""probability"":0.022953033079371202,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Esther McVey"",""probability"":0.009644131545954287,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Philip Hammond"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rishi Sunak"",""probability"":0.2967499276690134,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts to be added on request",,2 "Gender of next Conservative leader","https://smarkets.com/event/886716/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-conservative-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Male"",""probability"":0.7736942156241513,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Female"",""probability"":0.22630578437584864,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will be the gender of the next permanent Conservative Party leader, after Boris Johnson?",,2 -"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005923437361860137,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.019184864291397753,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05702413579701176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.3810450004420476,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.049155689152152765,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.03536380514543365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.02758376801343825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.38776412341968,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.03403766245247989,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.002917513924498276,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"Next German Chancellor after Angela Merkel","https://smarkets.com/event/974485/politics/europe/germany/next-german-chancellor-2019","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Friedrich Merz"",""probability"":0.005626942134878643,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer"",""probability"":0.018224573780129334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jens Spahn"",""probability"":0.05416981607457798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.36197194927353654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.073066263542454,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrea Nahles"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Daniel Gunther"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralph Brinkhaus"",""probability"":0.033593684387335176,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wolfgang Schäuble"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Julia Klockner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Heiko Maas"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Malu Dreyer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Peter Altmaier"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ralf Stegner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ursula Von der Leyen"",""probability"":0.02620307382212144,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sahra Wagenknecht"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Martin Sonneborn"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Markus Söder"",""probability"":0.36835474930713025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05601746871588141,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Norbert Röttgen"",""probability"":0.002771478961955152,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Next permanent leader of the SNP after Nicola Sturgeon","https://smarkets.com/event/1467262/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/snp-leader","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Derek Mackay"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Humza Yousaf"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Hosie"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mhairi Black"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Shona Robison"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John Swinney"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Keith Brown"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Joanna Cherry"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Angus Robertson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alex Salmond"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Michael Matheson"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tommy Sheppard"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Angela Constance"",""probability"":null},{""name"":""Roseanna Cunningham"",""probability"":null}]","",,2 "Year in which Boris Johnson will cease to be Prime Minister","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""probability"":0.010336985734959687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010336985734959687,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.09840810419681621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.8911515402108745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Boris Johnson to be the last Prime Minister of a four country UK","https://smarkets.com/event/4399382/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/borisjohnson","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.05664798777381558,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9433520122261844,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With disruptions caused by the post Brexit settlement with the EU could the country could split apart. This would make Boris Johnson the last PM of a four-country UK. ",,2 @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ "USA and UK to sign a trade deal in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41616796/politics/uk/brexit/uk-usa-trade-deal","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.2934948492941626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7065051507058375,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Year of next General Election in Hungary","https://smarkets.com/event/41618602/politics/europe/hungary/year-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2022 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3964413291096583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.2011862236301139,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","The Hungarian parliament passed a state of emergency bill in March 2020 giving prime minister Viktor Orbán the power to rule by decree, only ending when Orbán's government sees fit. During this period, no elections will be held. The next Hungarian parliamentary election is scheduled to take place in 2022 or earlier, but will it?",,2 "Most seats in the Welsh Assembly Elections 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41618654/politics/uk/scotland/welsh-assembly-elections-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8477819657871846,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservatives"",""probability"":0.10505460519957474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.03334299797042621,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.01382043104281434,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5363963465264323,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.18092074914660022,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.04732908939939109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":0.0658732355383338,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.035519881907925085,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.04612971676353907,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":0.0439154903588892,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.0439154903588892,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",,2 +"Winner of the 2022 French presidential election","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron"",""probability"":0.5392534240444007,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marine Le Pen"",""probability"":0.18646495389848716,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Luc Mélenchon"",""probability"":0.04592247784441859,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""François Baroin"",""probability"":0.06391549547936622,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xavier Bertrand"",""probability"":0.034464237758481786,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yannick Jadot"",""probability"":0.04475875033569063,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olivier Faure"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean-Marie Bigard"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jean Lassalle"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joachim Son-Forget"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anne Hidalgo"",""probability"":0.04261033031957748,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernard Cazeneuve"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nicolas Dupont-Aignan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Arnaud Montebourg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ségolène Royal"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Florian Philippot"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Edouard Philippe"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which candidate will win the 2022 French presidential election?",,2 "Macron first round vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/41620572/politics/europe/france/french-presidential-election-2022","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 25%"",""probability"":0.5155602574274882,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25% or over"",""probability"":0.48443974257251166,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will incumbent president Emmanuel Macron's vote share be in the first round of the 2022 French presidential election?",,2 "Next permanent leader of the Labour Party, after Keir Starmer","https://smarkets.com/event/41622144/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/next-labour-leader-after-starmer","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Angela Rayner"",""probability"":0.241490404818602,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Lisa Nandy"",""probability"":0.10379604986692814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.10771816781061774,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rebecca Long-Bailey"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Anneliese Dodds"",""probability"":0.07185880375402717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rosena Allin-Khan"",""probability"":0.07003782042302843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andy Burnham"",""probability"":0.14595881776159125,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Yvette Cooper"",""probability"":0.06093290376803474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Clive Lewis"",""probability"":0.07367978708502591,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""John McDonnell"",""probability"":0.038941028155203804,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ian Lavery"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Jarvis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emily Thornberry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nick Thomas-Symonds"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sam Tarry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Louise 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Reeves"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laura Pidcock"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Charlotte Nichols"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kate Osborne"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Margaret Greenwood"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Zarah Sultana"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Wes Streeting"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jim McMahon"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alison McGovern"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bridget Phillipson"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Keir Starmer was elected Labour Party leader on 4 April 2020. Who will be his successor? @@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Year of next General Election to take place in Israel","https://smarkets.com/event/41634554/politics/world/israel/year-of-next-israeli-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2020"",""probability"":0.03763359927743489,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.7307692307692307,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022 or later"",""probability"":0.23159716995333432,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "First Minister to leave the Cabinet?","https://smarkets.com/event/41636607/politics/uk/cabinet/raab-versus-hancock-first-to-go","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Dominic Raab"",""probability"":0.4085036637099884,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Matt Hancock"",""probability"":0.5914963362900116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","With the controversies over the ordering of PPE and the delivery of it to hospitals will Dominic Raab or Matt Hancock leave the Cabinet first? ",,2 "Keir Starmer exit date","https://smarkets.com/event/41659361/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/keir-starmer-exit-date","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2023 or earlier"",""probability"":0.3862793572311496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2024"",""probability"":0.2971260815822003,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2025 or later"",""probability"":0.3165945611866502,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will Keir Starmer cease to be leader of the Labour Party?",,2 -"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9429285357321339,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.02628685657171414,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00009995002498750624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00009995002498750624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.02938530734632683,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00009995002498750624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.00009995002498750624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0009995002498750624,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 -"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.28001209555488354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.7199879044451164,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 -"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6451702186548575,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.3548297813451425,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"2021 London mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41659442/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/2021-london-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.9483313228789705,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.025130679533574583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.025130679533574583,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0.00010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Laurence Fox"",""probability"":0.0010052271813429834,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of London in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 +"Sadiq Khan to get over 50% in first round","https://smarkets.com/event/41659455/politics/uk/london-mayoral-election/sadiq-khan-to-win-on-first-preferences","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3167398244213887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6832601755786113,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Sadiq Khan receive over 50% of the vote in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 +"2021 West Midlands mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664162/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-midlands-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Andy Street"",""probability"":0.6843135336138566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liam Byrne"",""probability"":0.31568646638614345,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Beverley Nielsen"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Downs"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the West Midlands in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "2021 Tees Valley mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664244/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-tees-valley-mayoral-election-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Ben Houchen"",""probability"":0.7560150032019028,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jessie Joe Jacobs"",""probability"":0.24398499679809715,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of the Tees Valley in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Scottish Parliament election 2021 winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41664419/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.915064401717379,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.01437371663244353,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.01866716445771887,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.05189471719245845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Scottish Parliament election 2021 most seats (w/o SNP)","https://smarkets.com/event/41664420/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-winner-w-o-snp","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.5910243407707911,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.26411426639621366,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrats"",""probability"":0.08451656524678837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Green"",""probability"":0.06034482758620689,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (excluding the SNP) will win the most seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Contracts added on request.",,2 @@ -44,27 +44,27 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Next general election overall majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41817534/politics/uk/next-uk-general-election/next-general-election-overall-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""No overall majority"",""probability"":0.42750430951924917,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative majority"",""probability"":0.32570388814403367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour majority"",""probability"":0.24248228308753111,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat majority"",""probability"":0.0043095192491859795,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party (if any) will win an overall majority at the next UK general election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Date of next Japanese general election","https://smarkets.com/event/41891949/politics/world/japan/date-of-next-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Before 22 October 2021"",""probability"":0.5904173106646059,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""22 October 2021 or later"",""probability"":0.4095826893353941,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will the next Japanese general election take place?",,2 "Belarus to have a General Election in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/41933267/politics/europe/belorussia/general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.4664641271325076,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5335358728674924,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5288406624785836,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4711593375214163,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",,2 +"Joe Biden to serve full term","https://smarkets.com/event/41935107/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-serve-full-term","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5384764489242101,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.46152355107578985,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Joe Biden serve his first term as President of the United States in full? See market rules for more details.",,2 "2024 Democratic presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936389/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-democratic-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.3583343785275304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.3743885613947071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0.05230151762197416,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.08365734353442869,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0.04640662235043271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.06271165182490906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0.020945691709519626,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Amy Klobuchar"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Garcetti"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cory Booker"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gretchen Whitmer"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0.0012542330364981814,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Democratic candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2 "2024 Republican presidential nominee","https://smarkets.com/event/41936834/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-republican-presidential-nominee","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.29622716971070523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.022263698173576853,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.031729102786295156,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.06345820557259031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.028929476069857348,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.055592587654979334,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.1586455139314758,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0.026663111585121982,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0.05799226769764031,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.0833222237035062,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.04599386748433542,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Trump"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Larry Hogan"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rick Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tim Scott"",""probability"":0.013331555792560991,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0.10251966404479403,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be the Republican candidate for the 2024 US presidential election? Other contracts added on request.",,2 "2024 US presidential winner","https://smarkets.com/event/41938283/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/2024-presidential-winner","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Joe Biden"",""probability"":0.15712956501511977,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kamala Harris"",""probability"":0.2194696441032798,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump"",""probability"":0.15305885089555707,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tucker Carlson"",""probability"":0.026401488718306578,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Tom Cotton"",""probability"":0.011630611770179109,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pence"",""probability"":0.04477785531518957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Donald Trump Jr."",""probability"":0.06838799720865316,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ted Cruz"",""probability"":0.021167713421725978,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez"",""probability"":0.07757618050709465,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michelle Obama"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nikki Haley"",""probability"":0.07501744591765526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Elizabeth Warren"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Gavin Newsom"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cuomo"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Marco Rubio"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Nina Turner"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Pete Buttigieg"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bernie Sanders"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Rashida Tlaib"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Josh Hawley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mike Pompeo"",""probability"":0.02907652942544777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dan Crenshaw"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ayanna Pressley"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Chris Christie"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ivanka Trump"",""probability"":0.05815305885089554,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Candace Owens"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Michael Bloomberg"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ron DeSantis"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will win the 2024 United States presidential election? Candidates added on request.",,2 -"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8494444444444444,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.018518518518518517,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.08055555555555555,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.051481481481481475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2 -"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13046653884780424,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8695334611521957,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 +"2021 London mayoral election second place","https://smarkets.com/event/41944560/politics/uk/2021-elections/2021-london-mayoral-election-2nd-place","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Shaun Bailey"",""probability"":0.8455299539170507,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Sadiq Khan"",""probability"":0.018433179723502304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Siân Berry"",""probability"":0.004608294930875576,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Luisa Porritt"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Brian Rose"",""probability"":0.08018433179723501,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Mandu Reid"",""probability"":0.051244239631336404,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will finish in second place in the 2021 London mayoral election? Candidates added on request.",,2 +"Women's Equality Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41945749/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-women-s-equality-party-to-win-a-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.13378808549340612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.866211914506594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Women's Equality Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 "Party's Candidate to win the the 2024 US election","https://smarkets.com/event/41945845/politics/us/2024-presidential-election/party-to-win-the-presidential-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.4087618689480116,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Democrat"",""probability"":0.5912381310519883,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Contracts available on request.",,2 "London Assembly: Labour majority","https://smarkets.com/event/41945873/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-labour-majority","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.41771041084962107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5822895891503789,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Labour win a majority on the London Assembly following the 2021 election?",,2 -"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.1314345193035579,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3309046177138531,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5376608629825889,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",,2 +"How many party leaders will still be in post at the end of 2021?","https://smarkets.com/event/41947872/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/party-leaders-at-end-of-2021","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 3"",""probability"":0.12773588375942616,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 3"",""probability"":0.3215927901416222,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Exactly 4"",""probability"":0.5506713260989516,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many of the following four party leaders will still be in position on 31 December 2021: Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Nicola Sturgeon?",,2 "2021 Norwegian election: Most votes","https://smarkets.com/event/41955745/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-parliamentary-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative (Høyre)"",""probability"":0.46105867870332373,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)"",""probability"":0.31087402544111614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.1368075502667214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.04562987279441936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian parliamentary election? (Norwegian names in brackets)",,2 "2021 Norwegian election: Largest minor party","https://smarkets.com/event/41955751/politics/europe/norway/2021-norwegian-election-largest-minor-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Centre (Senterpartiet)"",""probability"":0.7432820245238717,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)"",""probability"":0.17392816766675365,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)"",""probability"":0.08278980780937473,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will receive the highest vote share in the 2021 Norwegian election, excluding the Conservative and Labour parties? Parties added on request.",,2 "2021 Dutch election: PVV seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41957097/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-pvv-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 20"",""probability"":0.37488097505237095,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""20–24"",""probability"":0.38706912968958296,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""25 or more"",""probability"":0.2380498952580461,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will PVV win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 "2021 Dutch election: Government seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41958584/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-government-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Fewer than 65"",""probability"":0.052059925093632956,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65–69"",""probability"":0.22294007490636703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""70–74"",""probability"":0.30702247191011234,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""75 or more"",""probability"":0.41797752808988764,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), Democrats 66 (D66) and Christian Union (CU) win in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 -"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.31493905319852594,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.1687612208258528,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5162997259756212,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",,2 +"2021 Dutch election: Biggest left party","https://smarkets.com/event/41958591/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-biggest-left-party","Smarkets","[{""name"":""GroenLinks"",""probability"":0.32843910130074894,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)"",""probability"":0.13312968072526607,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)"",""probability"":0.5384312179739851,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the following three parties will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election: GroenLinks, Socialist Party or Labour Party?",,2 "Brexit Party to control any council","https://smarkets.com/event/41967411/politics/uk/local-elections/brexit-party-to-control-any-council","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.050332192470304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.949667807529696,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win a majority of seats on any council at the 2021 local elections?",,2 "Brexit Party to win a seat in the London Assembly","https://smarkets.com/event/41967432/politics/uk/2021-elections/brexit-party-to-win-a-london-assembly-seat","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.09087437953417335,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9091256204658267,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will the Brexit Party/Reform Party win at least one seat in the London Assembly at the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 "London Assembly: Liberal Democrat seats","https://smarkets.com/event/41968727/politics/uk/2021-elections/london-assembly-liberal-democrat-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""0–2"",""probability"":0.7598774124078522,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""3 or more"",""probability"":0.24012258759214777,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will the Liberal Democrats win in the 2021 London Assembly election?",,2 -"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.7204754278007249,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12045856865885526,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.03371828373935767,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10284076540504088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.014077383461181826,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.008429570934839417,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",,2 -"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.027804642166344297,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.11855254674403612,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5519825918762089,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.18318826563507415,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.10606060606060606,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012411347517730497,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",,2 +"Joe Biden's first international visit","https://smarkets.com/event/41980144/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-s-first-international-visit","Smarkets","[{""name"":""United Kingdom"",""probability"":0.730138390568939,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republic of Ireland"",""probability"":0.12207415000854263,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""France"",""probability"":0.0341705108491372,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Germany"",""probability"":0.10422005808986845,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""China"",""probability"":0.00085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Ukraine"",""probability"":0.0085426277122843,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of these countries will be visited by Joe Biden first in his role as President of the United States?",,2 +"Biden approval on day 100","https://smarkets.com/event/42015053/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-approval-on-day-100","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Under 45%"",""probability"":0.0282949233166571,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""45–49.9%"",""probability"":0.12064299188058722,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""50–54.9%"",""probability"":0.5360452718773067,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""55–59.9%"",""probability"":0.22783564340195195,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""60–64.9%"",""probability"":0.07455097186910523,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""65% or over"",""probability"":0.012630197654391865,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What will Joe Biden's approval rating be on FiveThirtyEight on day 100 of his presidency?",,2 "Matt Hancock to remain Health Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015339/politics/uk/cabinet/matt-hancock-to-leave-post","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.7920825016633399,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.20791749833666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Matt Hancock be in position as Health Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 -"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.37464865354973254,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6253513464502675,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 +"Gavin Williamson to remain Education Secretary","https://smarkets.com/event/42015372/politics/uk/cabinet/gavin-williamson-to-remain-education-secretary","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.3994252873563218,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.6005747126436781,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Gavin Williamson be in position as Education Secretary on 1 July 2021?",,2 "Party to provide the Premier following the 2021 Western Australia state election","https://smarkets.com/event/42020442/politics/world/australian-politics/western-australia-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labor"",""probability"":0.8232995177116248,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.010394146016963247,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any other party"",""probability"":0.08315316813570597,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2021 West Yorkshire mayoral election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42020574/politics/uk/local-elections/2021-west-yorkshire-mayoral-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Tracy Brabin"",""probability"":0.8051441932969603,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative Party candidate"",""probability"":0.19485580670303976,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will be elected mayor of West Yorkshire in the 2021 mayoral election? Contracts added on request.",,2 "Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election winner","https://smarkets.com/event/42022415/politics/uk/by-elections/rutherglen-and-hamilton-west-by-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.8055977823482071,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.19440221765179289,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election? Contracts added on request.",,2 @@ -79,12 +79,12 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Most seats following the German Federal Election 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42048426/politics/europe/germany/german-federal-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""CDU + CSU"",""probability"":0.8866338069005509,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""SPD"",""probability"":0.053735382236397025,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Greens"",""probability"":0.04204117135401566,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""AfD"",""probability"":0.01758963950903644,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Donald Trump Jr. to run in the 2022 Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary","https://smarkets.com/event/42048465/politics/us/2021-elections/donald-trump-jr","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2022 House of Representatives control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048472/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-of-representatives-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.3759190298863745,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.6240809701136256,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2022 House of Representatives elections?",,2 -"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.42494958225295304,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.575050417747047,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 +"President Joe Biden to leave office in his first term via Impeachment, Resignation or the 25th Amendment","https://smarkets.com/event/42048883/politics/us/joe-biden/biden-to-leave-officeq","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.43832661101210013,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.5616733889878999,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2022 Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048961/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-senate-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Democratic"",""probability"":0.44550898203592815,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Republican"",""probability"":0.5544910179640719,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will control the United States Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",,2 "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022","https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.6005369127516779,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.39946308724832214,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "2022 House and Senate control","https://smarkets.com/event/42048965/politics/us/2021-elections/2022-house-and-senate-control","Smarkets","[{""name"":""D House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2841289413422582,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""D House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.12585872820151486,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / D Senate"",""probability"":0.2230051083318654,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""R House / R Senate"",""probability"":0.36700722212436143,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Who will control the House and Senate following the 2022 midterm elections?",,2 "Harriet Tubman to appear on the US $20 note in 2021","https://smarkets.com/event/42056981/politics/us/dollars/harriet-tubman","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.5028976732116599,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.4971023267883401,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 -"2021 Dutch election: Most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)"",""probability"":0.9792249300838993,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""PVV (Party for Freedom)"",""probability"":0.020775069916100678,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 +"2021 Dutch election: Most seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42057130/politics/europe/netherlands/2021-dutch-election-most-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)"",""probability"":0.9899030694668821,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""PVV (Party for Freedom)"",""probability"":0.010096930533117932,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the most seats in the 2021 Dutch general election?",,2 "Turnout of the Scottish Parliament Election in 2021 (FPTP figure)","https://smarkets.com/event/42058821/politics/uk/scotland/scottish-parliament-election-2021-turnout","Smarkets","[{""name"":""50% and below"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""51-53%"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""54-56%"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""57%+"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","",,2 "Marjorie Taylor Greene to be expelled from Congress","https://smarkets.com/event/42064701/politics/us/marjorie-taylor-greene/marjorie-taylor-greene-to-be-expelled-from-congress","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.06661340257665035,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.9333865974233496,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene be expelled from the House of Representatives by the end of April 2021?",,2 "2021 Israeli election: Likud seats","https://smarkets.com/event/42067807/politics/world/israel/israeli-election-2021-likud-seats","Smarkets","[{""name"":""26 or fewer"",""probability"":0.0828492524521474,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""27–28"",""probability"":0.2267403104466241,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""29–30"",""probability"":0.284258642034092,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""31–32"",""probability"":0.25740405675649936,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""33 or more"",""probability"":0.14874773831063706,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","How many seats will Likud win in the March 2021 Israeli legislative election?",,2 @@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Next G20 leader to leave","https://smarkets.com/event/42092242/politics/world/world-leaders/next-g20-leader-to-leave","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yoshihide Suga (Japan)"",""probability"":0.5845854201446856,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Emmanuel Macron (France)"",""probability"":0.2107679465776294,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Joe Biden (United States)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Boris Johnson (United Kingdom)"",""probability"":0.20464663327768506,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Jair Bolsonaro (Brazil)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Justin Trudeau (Canada)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Vladimir Putin (Russia)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Xi Jinping (China)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (Turkey)"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which of the listed leaders of G20 countries will be the next to leave their position?",,2 "Year of next Canadian federal election","https://smarkets.com/event/42093782/politics/world/canada/year-of-next-canadian-general-election","Smarkets","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.4012149786925378,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.17109438752380088,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2023 or later"",""probability"":0.42769063378366123,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","When will the next Canadian federal election take place?",,2 "Alliance 4 Unity to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament","https://smarkets.com/event/42093783/politics/uk/scotland/alliance-4-unity-to-win-a-seat-in-the-scottish-parliament","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Yes"",""probability"":0.11546469808820746,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""No"",""probability"":0.8845353019117925,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Will Alliance 4 Unity win any seats in the Scottish Parliament following the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 -"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.4934036939313984,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.5065963060686015,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 +"Brian Rose vote share","https://smarkets.com/event/42095181/politics/uk/2021-elections/brian-rose-vote-share","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Less than 2.0%"",""probability"":0.4217184495496407,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2.0% or more"",""probability"":0.5782815504503592,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","What share of the vote will Brian Rose receive in the first round of the 2021 London mayoral election?",,2 "Aberdeenshire West","https://smarkets.com/event/42096476/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/aberdeenshire-west","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.5665742024965326,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.43342579750346744,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Aberdeenshire West at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Ayr","https://smarkets.com/event/42096491/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/ayr","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6379892345588906,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.36201076544110933,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Ayr at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 "Dumbarton","https://smarkets.com/event/42096506/politics/uk/scottish-parliament-constituencies/dumbarton","Smarkets","[{""name"":""SNP"",""probability"":0.6490849447513812,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.35091505524861877,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win the Scottish Parliament constituency of Dumbarton at the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?",,2 @@ -131,4 +131,9 @@ Other candidates available on request.",,2 "Preseli Pembrokeshire","https://smarkets.com/event/42112720/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/preseli-pembrokeshire","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Preseli Pembrokeshire at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 "Vale of Clwyd","https://smarkets.com/event/42112722/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-clwyd","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Vale of Clwyd at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 "Vale of Glamorgan","https://smarkets.com/event/42112723/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/vale-of-glamorgan","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Vale of Glamorgan at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 -"Wrexham","https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 \ No newline at end of file +"Wrexham","https://smarkets.com/event/42112724/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/wrexham","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 +"Alyn and Deeside","https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 +"Delyn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 +"Newport East","https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 +"Newport West","https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":null,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 +"Ynys Môn","https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon","Smarkets","[{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":1,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]","Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?",,2 \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/smarkets-questions.json b/data/smarkets-questions.json index 6a87843..e111a3c 100644 --- a/data/smarkets-questions.json +++ b/data/smarkets-questions.json @@ -149,27 +149,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005923437361860137, + "probability": 0.005626942134878643, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.019184864291397753, + "probability": 0.018224573780129334, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.05702413579701176, + "probability": 0.05416981607457798, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.3810450004420476, + "probability": 0.36197194927353654, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.049155689152152765, + "probability": 0.073066263542454, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -189,7 +189,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.03536380514543365, + "probability": 0.033593684387335176, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -224,7 +224,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.02758376801343825, + "probability": 0.02620307382212144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -239,17 +239,17 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.38776412341968, + "probability": 0.36835474930713025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.03403766245247989, + "probability": 0.05601746871588141, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.002917513924498276, + "probability": 0.002771478961955152, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -867,37 +867,37 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5363963465264323, + "probability": 0.5392534240444007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.18092074914660022, + "probability": 0.18646495389848716, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.04732908939939109, + "probability": 0.04592247784441859, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "François Baroin", - "probability": 0.0658732355383338, + "probability": 0.06391549547936622, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.035519881907925085, + "probability": 0.034464237758481786, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.04612971676353907, + "probability": 0.04475875033569063, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olivier Faure", - "probability": 0.0439154903588892, + "probability": 0.04261033031957748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -917,7 +917,7 @@ }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.0439154903588892, + "probability": 0.04261033031957748, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1273,41 +1273,41 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9429285357321339, + "probability": 0.9483313228789705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.02628685657171414, + "probability": 0.025130679533574583, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.02938530734632683, + "probability": 0.025130679533574583, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.00010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0009995002498750624, + "probability": 0.0010052271813429834, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1321,12 +1321,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.28001209555488354, + "probability": 0.3167398244213887, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7199879044451164, + "probability": 0.6832601755786113, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -1340,12 +1340,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street", - "probability": 0.6451702186548575, + "probability": 0.6843135336138566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne", - "probability": 0.3548297813451425, + "probability": 0.31568646638614345, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -1951,12 +1951,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5288406624785836, + "probability": 0.5384764489242101, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4711593375214163, + "probability": 0.46152355107578985, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2317,17 +2317,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.8494444444444444, + "probability": 0.8455299539170507, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.018518518518518517, + "probability": 0.018433179723502304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.004608294930875576, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -2337,12 +2337,12 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.08055555555555555, + "probability": 0.08018433179723501, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.051481481481481475, + "probability": 0.051244239631336404, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2356,12 +2356,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13046653884780424, + "probability": 0.13378808549340612, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8695334611521957, + "probability": 0.866211914506594, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2413,17 +2413,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 3", - "probability": 0.1314345193035579, + "probability": 0.12773588375942616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 3", - "probability": 0.3309046177138531, + "probability": 0.3215927901416222, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Exactly 4", - "probability": 0.5376608629825889, + "probability": 0.5506713260989516, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2548,17 +2548,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "GroenLinks", - "probability": 0.31493905319852594, + "probability": 0.32843910130074894, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Socialist Party (Socialistische Partij)", - "probability": 0.1687612208258528, + "probability": 0.13312968072526607, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour Party (Partij van de Arbeid)", - "probability": 0.5162997259756212, + "probability": 0.5384312179739851, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2629,32 +2629,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.7204754278007249, + "probability": 0.730138390568939, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republic of Ireland", - "probability": 0.12045856865885526, + "probability": 0.12207415000854263, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.03371828373935767, + "probability": 0.0341705108491372, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.10284076540504088, + "probability": 0.10422005808986845, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "China", - "probability": 0.014077383461181826, + "probability": 0.00085426277122843, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ukraine", - "probability": 0.008429570934839417, + "probability": 0.0085426277122843, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2668,32 +2668,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 45%", - "probability": 0.027804642166344297, + "probability": 0.0282949233166571, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45–49.9%", - "probability": 0.11855254674403612, + "probability": 0.12064299188058722, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50–54.9%", - "probability": 0.5519825918762089, + "probability": 0.5360452718773067, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55–59.9%", - "probability": 0.18318826563507415, + "probability": 0.22783564340195195, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60–64.9%", - "probability": 0.10606060606060606, + "probability": 0.07455097186910523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65% or over", - "probability": 0.012411347517730497, + "probability": 0.012630197654391865, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -2726,12 +2726,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37464865354973254, + "probability": 0.3994252873563218, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6253513464502675, + "probability": 0.6005747126436781, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3071,12 +3071,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42494958225295304, + "probability": 0.43832661101210013, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.575050417747047, + "probability": 0.5616733889878999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3176,12 +3176,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "VVD (People's Party for Freedom and Democracy)", - "probability": 0.9792249300838993, + "probability": 0.9899030694668821, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "PVV (Party for Freedom)", - "probability": 0.020775069916100678, + "probability": 0.010096930533117932, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -3398,12 +3398,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.4934036939313984, + "probability": 0.4217184495496407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.5065963060686015, + "probability": 0.5782815504503592, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], @@ -4200,5 +4200,105 @@ ], "description": "Which party will win Wrexham at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Alyn and Deeside", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117405/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/alyn-and-deeside", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Alyn and Deeside at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Delyn", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117418/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/delyn", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Delyn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Newport East", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117438/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-east", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Newport East at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Newport West", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117439/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/newport-west", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": null, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Newport West at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2 + }, + { + "title": "Ynys Môn", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42117452/politics/uk/welsh-senedd-constituencies/ynys-mon", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Plaid Cymru", + "probability": 1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Conservative", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Labour", + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "description": "Which party will win Ynys Môn at the 2021 Welsh Senedd election?", + "stars": 2 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/data/williamhill-questions.csv b/data/williamhill-questions.csv index 7e05243..7863f99 100644 --- a/data/williamhill-questions.csv +++ b/data/williamhill-questions.csv @@ -8,7 +8,7 @@ "West Yorkshire Mayoral Election 2021","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Tracy Brabin (Labour)"",""probability"":0.8331245503149954,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative Candidate"",""probability"":0.14241445304529837,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Andrew Cooper (Green)"",""probability"":0.009165286582123162,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Stewart Golton (Lib Dem)"",""probability"":0.009165286582123162,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)"",""probability"":0.006130423475459863,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "2021 New York City Mayoral Election","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Andrew Yang"",""probability"":0.4946254386960333,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Eric Adams"",""probability"":0.12365635967400833,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Scott Stringer"",""probability"":0.09892508773920666,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Raymond McGuire"",""probability"":0.06744892345855,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Maya Wiley"",""probability"":0.06744892345855,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Kathryn Garcia"",""probability"":0.035330388478288094,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Shaun Donovan"",""probability"":0.028536083001694232,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Dianne Morales"",""probability"":0.021821710530707354,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Carlos Menchaca"",""probability"":0.014547807020471568,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Loree Sutton"",""probability"":0.014547807020471568,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Curtis Sliwa"",""probability"":0.011073703851403731,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Cleopatra Fitzgerald"",""probability"":0.0073459223568717825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Bill Pepitone"",""probability"":0.0073459223568717825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Abbey Laurel-Smith"",""probability"":0.0073459223568717825,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Welsh Assembly Election 2021 - Most Seats","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Labour"",""probability"":0.8515314366223367,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Conservative"",""probability"":0.10733589537256344,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Plaid Cymru"",""probability"":0.035090581179491896,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Liberal Democrat"",""probability"":0.006042086825607876,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 -"Next German Federal Election","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Markus Soder"",""probability"":0.454031939816873,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.38234268616157724,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05341552233139683,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.05341552233139683,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.043241137125416475,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.013553192233339492,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 +"Next German Federal Election","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Markus Soder"",""probability"":0.4561030955356818,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Armin Laschet"",""probability"":0.3869965659090633,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Olaf Scholz"",""probability"":0.05122013372325838,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Robert Habeck"",""probability"":0.05122013372325838,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Annalena Baerbock"",""probability"":0.04146391777597107,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Alice Weidel"",""probability"":0.012996153332767052,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Next Norwegian General Election - Party With The Most Votes","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Conservatives (H)"",""probability"":0.5270270270270271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labour (AP)"",""probability"":0.2702702702702703,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Any Other Party"",""probability"":0.20270270270270271,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Year of Next Australian Federal Election","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""2021"",""probability"":0.3373493975903614,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""2022"",""probability"":0.6626506024096386,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 "Australian Federal Election - Winning Party","https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics","WilliamHill","[{""name"":""Coalition"",""probability"":0.6556291390728477,""type"":""PROBABILITY""},{""name"":""Labor Party"",""probability"":0.34437086092715236,""type"":""PROBABILITY""}]",,,2 diff --git a/data/williamhill-questions.json b/data/williamhill-questions.json index 1c78f82..80f1ad2 100644 --- a/data/williamhill-questions.json +++ b/data/williamhill-questions.json @@ -628,32 +628,32 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Markus Soder", - "probability": 0.454031939816873, + "probability": 0.4561030955356818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.38234268616157724, + "probability": 0.3869965659090633, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.05341552233139683, + "probability": 0.05122013372325838, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.05341552233139683, + "probability": 0.05122013372325838, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.043241137125416475, + "probability": 0.04146391777597107, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alice Weidel", - "probability": 0.013553192233339492, + "probability": 0.012996153332767052, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], diff --git a/src/polymarket-fetch.js b/src/polymarket-fetch.js index f1ad164..ea8511e 100644 --- a/src/polymarket-fetch.js +++ b/src/polymarket-fetch.js @@ -108,7 +108,7 @@ async function fetch_all() { "description": obj.description, "options": options, "numforecasts": Number(data.tradesQuantity).toFixed(0), - "stars": calculateStars("Polymarket", ({ liquidity })) + "stars": calculateStars("Polymarket", ({ liquidity, option: options[0] })) /*liquidity: liquidity.toFixed(2), tradevolume: tradevolume.toFixed(2), address: obj.address*/ diff --git a/src/stars.js b/src/stars.js index e79640e..999742e 100644 --- a/src/stars.js +++ b/src/stars.js @@ -122,6 +122,13 @@ function calculateStarsPolymarket(data) { let eli = (data) => data.liquidity > 10000 ? 5 : 4 let misha = (data) => 4 let starsDecimal = average([nuno(data), eli(data), misha(data)]) + // Substract 1 star if probability is above 90% or below 10% + if(data.option && + (data.option.probability < 0.1 || data.option.probability > 0.9) + ){ + starsDecimal = starsDecimal - 1 + } + let starsInteger = Math.round(starsDecimal) return starsInteger }