quantified.uncertainty/metaforecast
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Daily commit

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
NunoSempere 2021-04-03 00:33:41 +02:00
parent 62f99a19ae
commit 04d639455f
14 changed files with 14296 additions and 15157 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

396
data/csetforetell-questions.json
View File

@ -7,17 +7,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.88,
"probability": 0.94,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "10",
"numforecasters": "9",
"numforecasts": "44",
"numforecasters": "39",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -28,17 +28,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.23,
"probability": 0.26,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.77,
"probability": 0.74,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "7",
"numforecasters": "7",
"numforecasts": "25",
"numforecasters": "24",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -49,32 +49,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 5.5%",
"probability": 0.12390000000000001,
"probability": 0.10279999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%",
"probability": 0.2161,
"probability": 0.1936,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.282,
"probability": 0.2872,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1866,
"probability": 0.19699999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 12%",
"probability": 0.19140000000000001,
"probability": 0.2194,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "77",
"numforecasters": "63",
"numforecasts": "92",
"numforecasters": "77",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -85,17 +85,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.73,
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.27,
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "14",
"numforecasters": "13",
"numforecasts": "19",
"numforecasters": "18",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -106,17 +106,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.64,
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.36,
"probability": 0.43,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "12",
"numforecasters": "11",
"numforecasts": "17",
"numforecasters": "14",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -136,8 +136,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "13",
"numforecasters": "12",
"numforecasts": "16",
"numforecasters": "15",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -148,32 +148,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 7,500",
"probability": 0.042,
"probability": 0.0431,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1348,
"probability": 0.1358,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500",
"probability": 0.3064,
"probability": 0.3012,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500",
"probability": 0.29600000000000004,
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 13,500",
"probability": 0.2208,
"probability": 0.22,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "44",
"numforecasters": "36",
"numforecasts": "45",
"numforecasters": "37",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -184,32 +184,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 70,000",
"probability": 0.1234,
"probability": 0.128,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.33340000000000003,
"probability": 0.34159999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000",
"probability": 0.3059,
"probability": 0.3156,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000",
"probability": 0.165,
"probability": 0.1567,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 130,000",
"probability": 0.0723,
"probability": 0.0582,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "74",
"numforecasters": "63",
"numforecasts": "77",
"numforecasters": "65",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -220,32 +220,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $400 billion",
"probability": 0.1294,
"probability": 0.1306,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1863,
"probability": 0.185,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion",
"probability": 0.5024000000000001,
"probability": 0.5056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion",
"probability": 0.1675,
"probability": 0.1638,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $775 billion",
"probability": 0.0144,
"probability": 0.015,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "24",
"numforecasters": "22",
"numforecasts": "25",
"numforecasters": "23",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -256,32 +256,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 3%",
"probability": 0.243,
"probability": 0.2373,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.313,
"probability": 0.3245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.297,
"probability": 0.3055,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%",
"probability": 0.1,
"probability": 0.0955,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 7.5%",
"probability": 0.047,
"probability": 0.0373,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "14",
"numforecasters": "13",
"numforecasts": "16",
"numforecasters": "15",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -292,32 +292,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $470 billion",
"probability": 0.047,
"probability": 0.0507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.102,
"probability": 0.1267,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion",
"probability": 0.2225,
"probability": 0.23149999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3239,
"probability": 0.3165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $680 billion",
"probability": 0.3045,
"probability": 0.2746,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "70",
"numforecasters": "64",
"numforecasts": "76",
"numforecasters": "67",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -328,17 +328,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.21,
"probability": 0.19,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.79,
"probability": 0.81,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "126",
"numforecasters": "106",
"numforecasts": "134",
"numforecasters": "108",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -349,17 +349,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.87,
"probability": 0.88,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.13,
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "169",
"numforecasters": "131",
"numforecasts": "179",
"numforecasters": "132",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -370,31 +370,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $40 billion",
"probability": 0.056299999999999996,
"probability": 0.055999999999999994,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.259,
"probability": 0.2643,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion",
"probability": 0.40630000000000005,
"probability": 0.4053,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion",
"probability": 0.205,
"probability": 0.2023,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $100 billion",
"probability": 0.0733,
"probability": 0.07200000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "49",
"numforecasts": "52",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 2
},
@ -406,31 +406,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $13 billion",
"probability": 0.0345,
"probability": 0.0348,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.121,
"probability": 0.12480000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion",
"probability": 0.4255,
"probability": 0.41969999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion",
"probability": 0.3159,
"probability": 0.3148,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $25 billion",
"probability": 0.10310000000000001,
"probability": 0.1059,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "51",
"numforecasts": "53",
"numforecasters": "41",
"stars": 2
},
@ -442,32 +442,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than -0.25",
"probability": 0.19030000000000002,
"probability": 0.1943,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive",
"probability": 0.31489999999999996,
"probability": 0.3184,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25",
"probability": 0.29719999999999996,
"probability": 0.3016,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5",
"probability": 0.1542,
"probability": 0.1447,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.5",
"probability": 0.0435,
"probability": 0.0409,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "134",
"numforecasters": "108",
"numforecasts": "145",
"numforecasters": "110",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -502,7 +502,7 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "109",
"numforecasts": "112",
"numforecasters": "90",
"stars": 3
},
@ -514,31 +514,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than $30 million",
"probability": 0.0482,
"probability": 0.0471,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.3013,
"probability": 0.2965,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million",
"probability": 0.33409999999999995,
"probability": 0.33590000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million",
"probability": 0.19329999999999997,
"probability": 0.20579999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than $150 million",
"probability": 0.1231,
"probability": 0.11470000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "130",
"numforecasts": "138",
"numforecasters": "114",
"stars": 3
},
@ -550,32 +550,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 26,000",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.042699999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive",
"probability": 0.0855,
"probability": 0.09630000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000",
"probability": 0.2028,
"probability": 0.2127,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000",
"probability": 0.3348,
"probability": 0.33299999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 32,000",
"probability": 0.3369,
"probability": 0.3153,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "42",
"numforecasts": "68",
"numforecasters": "43",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -586,31 +586,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 800",
"probability": 0.12960000000000002,
"probability": 0.12119999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 800 and 4,000",
"probability": 0.44380000000000003,
"probability": 0.4581,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000",
"probability": 0.30010000000000003,
"probability": 0.2958,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000",
"probability": 0.09960000000000001,
"probability": 0.0984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 100,000",
"probability": 0.027000000000000003,
"probability": 0.0265,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "135",
"numforecasts": "143",
"numforecasters": "100",
"stars": 3
},
@ -622,32 +622,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 0.45%",
"probability": 0.049699999999999994,
"probability": 0.047,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1891,
"probability": 0.1832,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%",
"probability": 0.29460000000000003,
"probability": 0.2816,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%",
"probability": 0.22,
"probability": 0.2303,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.2%",
"probability": 0.2466,
"probability": 0.25780000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "58",
"numforecasters": "50",
"numforecasts": "63",
"numforecasters": "53",
"stars": 2
},
{
@ -658,43 +658,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.43,
"probability": 0.44,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.57,
"probability": 0.56,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "142",
"numforecasters": "88",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/101-on-how-many-of-china-s-top-chipmakers-will-the-united-states-impose-new-export-controls-in-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) \"military end-use or end-user controls,\" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Zero",
"probability": 0.4311,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "One",
"probability": 0.321,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Two or more",
"probability": 0.24789999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "116",
"numforecasters": "88",
"numforecasts": "147",
"numforecasters": "89",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -705,31 +679,31 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 20%",
"probability": 0.0941,
"probability": 0.0934,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 25%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1827,
"probability": 0.1841,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%",
"probability": 0.3671,
"probability": 0.369,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%",
"probability": 0.2427,
"probability": 0.24239999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 35%",
"probability": 0.1134,
"probability": 0.111,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "68",
"numforecasts": "73",
"numforecasters": "59",
"stars": 2
},
@ -750,8 +724,8 @@
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "305",
"numforecasters": "187",
"numforecasts": "332",
"numforecasters": "192",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -762,27 +736,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before February 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.0342,
"probability": 0.0245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive",
"probability": 0.09359999999999999,
"probability": 0.0834,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.2275,
"probability": 0.21969999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "After November 17, 2021",
"probability": 0.6446999999999999,
"probability": 0.6724,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "228",
"numforecasters": "132",
"numforecasts": "239",
"numforecasters": "135",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -793,68 +767,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 59%",
"probability": 0.1266,
"probability": 0.1223,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 59% and 66%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.18030000000000002,
"probability": 0.18170000000000003,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%",
"probability": 0.26539999999999997,
"probability": 0.26899999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%",
"probability": 0.2919,
"probability": 0.29,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80%",
"probability": 0.1358,
"probability": 0.13699999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "219",
"numforecasters": "166",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/86-what-percentage-of-u-s-ai-publications-will-be-u-s-china-collaborations-in-2021",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 15%",
"probability": 0.0799,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 15% and 17%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1935,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%",
"probability": 0.3193,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%",
"probability": 0.2656,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 21%",
"probability": 0.1418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "145",
"numforecasters": "105",
"numforecasts": "226",
"numforecasters": "167",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -865,17 +803,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.74,
"probability": 0.73,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.26,
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "180",
"numforecasters": "129",
"numforecasts": "192",
"numforecasters": "132",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -886,68 +824,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 1.5%",
"probability": 0.0658,
"probability": 0.0682,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.1349,
"probability": 0.1378,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%",
"probability": 0.2091,
"probability": 0.2109,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%",
"probability": 0.2852,
"probability": 0.2903,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 6%",
"probability": 0.305,
"probability": 0.2927,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "203",
"numforecasts": "215",
"numforecasters": "139",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?",
"url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/32-how-many-sorties-against-chinese-aircraft-will-the-japanese-air-self-defense-force-conduct-by-april-30th-2020",
"platform": "CSET-foretell",
"description": "Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 675",
"probability": 0.6114,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 675 and 750, inclusive",
"probability": 0.2072,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 750 but less than or equal to 825",
"probability": 0.09880000000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 825 but less than or equal to 900",
"probability": 0.0519,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 900",
"probability": 0.030699999999999998,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "151",
"numforecasters": "84",
"stars": 3
}
]

6404
data/elicit-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

692
data/fantasyscotus-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

118
data/goodjudgment-questions.json
View File

@ -7,7 +7,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 4.0%",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -17,12 +17,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%",
"probability": 0.22,
"probability": 0.23,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.55,
"probability": 0.53,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -51,17 +51,17 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day",
"probability": 0.48,
"probability": 0.57,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive",
"probability": 0.49,
"probability": 0.41,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 30 million barrels per day",
"probability": 0.02,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -94,7 +94,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.99,
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -104,7 +104,7 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -120,40 +120,6 @@
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "This question was commissioned by <a href=\"https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=\"https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>, <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>, <a href=\"https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Fewer than 200 million",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive",
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million",
"probability": 0.09,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive",
"probability": 0.75,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 1.6 billion",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
@ -187,40 +153,6 @@
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
"platform": "Good Judgment",
"description": "This question was commissioned by <a href=\"https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic\" target=\"_blank\">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=\"https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines\" target=\"_blank\">companies</a> are trying to <a href=\"https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine\" target=\"_blank\">develop</a> a <a href=\"https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html\" target=\"_blank\">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19\" target=\"_blank\">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html\" target=\"_blank\">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101\" target=\"_blank\">here</a> and <a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>. \"<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access\" target=\"_blank\">Compassionate use</a>\" and \"<a href=\"https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization\" target=\"_blank\">emergency use</a>\" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=\"https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm\" target=\"_blank\">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 February 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021",
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021",
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 August 2021",
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>",
"url": "https://goodjudgment.io/superforecasts/",
@ -234,12 +166,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021",
"probability": 0.97,
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021",
"probability": 0.03,
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -263,7 +195,7 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Before 1 July 2021",
"probability": 0.97,
"probability": 0.98,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -273,17 +205,17 @@
},
{
"name": "Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021",
"probability": 0,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not before 1 January 2022",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -301,12 +233,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.79,
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.19,
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -349,17 +281,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 23%",
"probability": 0.26,
"probability": 0.27,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.73,
"probability": 0.71,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 27%",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0.02,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -383,12 +315,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ",
"probability": 0.05,
"probability": 0.06,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.81,
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -412,12 +344,12 @@
},
{
"name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%",
"probability": 0.4,
"probability": 0.38,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Higher by more than 100%",
"probability": 0.59,
"probability": 0.61,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -470,12 +402,12 @@
},
{
"name": "More than 10% but less than 20%",
"probability": 0.79,
"probability": 0.77,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive",
"probability": 0.19,
"probability": 0.21,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{

1093
data/goodjudmentopen-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

154
data/hypermind-questions.json
View File

@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
"probability": 0.04901960784313725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
"probability": 0.9509803921568627,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -25,12 +25,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
"probability": 0.69,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.35,
"probability": 0.31,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -82,57 +82,57 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Xavier Bertrand",
"probability": 0.03883495145631068,
"probability": 0.04901960784313725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pierre de Villiers",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anne Hidalgo",
"probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yannick Jadot",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marine Le Pen",
"probability": 0.1262135922330097,
"probability": 0.12745098039215685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emmanuel Macron",
"probability": 0.5728155339805825,
"probability": 0.5588235294117647,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon",
"probability": 0.01941747572815534,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valérie Pécresse",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.0196078431372549,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eric Piolle",
"probability": 0.00970873786407767,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another woman",
"probability": 0.02912621359223301,
"probability": 0.02941176470588235,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another man",
"probability": 0.14563106796116507,
"probability": 0.14705882352941177,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -146,22 +146,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Macron and Le Pen",
"probability": 0.7474747474747475,
"probability": 0.6981132075471699,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Macron, but not Le Pen",
"probability": 0.08080808080808081,
"probability": 0.10377358490566038,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Le Pen, but not Macron",
"probability": 0.1414141414141414,
"probability": 0.169811320754717,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Neither of them",
"probability": 0.030303030303030304,
"probability": 0.028301886792452827,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -175,12 +175,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.99,
"probability": 1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -194,12 +194,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)",
"probability": 0.82,
"probability": 0.89,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Later in 2021",
"probability": 0.17,
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
@ -218,17 +218,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.12745098039215685,
"probability": 0.12,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Japan",
"probability": 0.8627450980392156,
"probability": 0.87,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Same medals count",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -257,32 +257,32 @@
},
{
"name": "March 2021",
"probability": 0.010416666666666668,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.14,
"probability": 0.11,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "April 2021",
"probability": 0.04166666666666667,
"probability": 0.010204081632653062,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "May 2021",
"probability": 0.14583333333333334,
"probability": 0.0816326530612245,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "June 2021",
"probability": 0.31250000000000006,
"probability": 0.2448979591836735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe after June 2021",
"probability": 0.48958333333333337,
"probability": 0.6632653061224489,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -296,27 +296,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "In May or earlier",
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"probability": 0.0297029702970297,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in June (government goal)",
"probability": 0.49504950495049505,
"probability": 0.5445544554455446,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in July",
"probability": 0.297029702970297,
"probability": 0.27722772277227725,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in August",
"probability": 0.12871287128712872,
"probability": 0.08910891089108912,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.06930693069306931,
"probability": 0.0594059405940594,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -330,12 +330,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.08,
"probability": 0.07,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.92,
"probability": 0.93,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -513,27 +513,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed",
"probability": 0.8137254901960784,
"probability": 0.9021739130434783,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Abshir Aden Ferro",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0.010869565217391304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sharif Sheikh Ahmed",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0.010869565217391304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Someone else",
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"probability": 0.010869565217391304,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No election in 2021",
"probability": 0.1568627450980392,
"probability": 0.06521739130434782,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -547,27 +547,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Q1, 2021 (or before)",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0.00980392156862745,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.26,
"probability": 0.2745098039215686,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.42,
"probability": 0.4117647058823529,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.18,
"probability": 0.1764705882352941,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Maybe later",
"probability": 0.13,
"probability": 0.12745098039215685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -581,17 +581,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Benjamin Netanyahu",
"probability": 0.8365384615384616,
"probability": 0.8316831683168318,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another Likud politician",
"probability": 0.009615384615384616,
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Another politician not from Likud",
"probability": 0.15384615384615385,
"probability": 0.15841584158415842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -605,17 +605,17 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Worse than the 2012 record",
"probability": 0.2604166666666667,
"probability": 0.2233009708737864,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012",
"probability": 0.23958333333333337,
"probability": 0.31067961165048547,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Not worse than 2020",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.46601941747572817,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -668,27 +668,27 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "in Q1, 2021",
"probability": 0.0707070707070707,
"probability": 0,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q2, 2021",
"probability": 0.33333333333333337,
"probability": 0.4095238095238095,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q3, 2021",
"probability": 0.17171717171717174,
"probability": 0.17142857142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "in Q4, 2021",
"probability": 0.19191919191919193,
"probability": 0.18095238095238095,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Perhaps later",
"probability": 0.23232323232323235,
"probability": 0.23809523809523805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -702,22 +702,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "USA",
"probability": 0.01,
"probability": 0.009900990099009901,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.54,
"probability": 0.712871287128713,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.38,
"probability": 0.2376237623762376,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.07,
"probability": 0.039603960396039604,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -736,17 +736,17 @@
},
{
"name": "France",
"probability": 0.04,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Germany",
"probability": 0.03,
"probability": 0.01,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "United Kingdom",
"probability": 0.05,
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -817,12 +817,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.92,
"probability": 0.9090909090909092,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.08,
"probability": 0.09090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -856,14 +856,6 @@
"Percentage": "none",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "As of April 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably* settled according to the data published on April 1, 2021 by the CDC here: [https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations).\nFor the purposes of this question, FDA “Emergency Use Authorization” or “compassionate use” counts as approval.\n* Should this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on the source for this statistic used by Our World in Data. If Our World in Data does not track this statistic (as of Dec 26 2020 it does not), Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the FDA or credible reporting by major news publications.\n",
"options": [],
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "As of July 1, 2021, how many million individuals in the United-States will have received at least one dose of an FDA-approved Covid-19 vaccine?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
@ -880,14 +872,6 @@
"options": [],
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 3 per million people?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",
"platform": "Hypermind",
"description": "This question will be preferably settled according to [the data published by Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&amp;time=2020-03-01..latest&amp;country=USA&amp;region=World&amp;deathsMetric=true&amp;interval=smoothed&amp;perCapita=true&amp;smoothing=7&amp;pickerMetric=total_cases&amp;pickerSort=desc). \nShould this data source not be available in a timely manner to settle the question, Hypermind will rely on other sources it deems most reliable and relevant to settle the question, such as public health sources like the CDC or WHO.\n",
"options": [],
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "When will new confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the USA (7-day rolling average) first drop below 1 per million people?",
"url": "https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=Covid19",

351
data/ladbrokes-questions.json
View File

@ -1111,12 +1111,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Ben Houchen (Cons)",
"probability": 0.7936507936507936,
"probability": 0.8143322475570033,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jessie Joe Jacobs (Lab)",
"probability": 0.2063492063492063,
"probability": 0.18566775244299674,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1806,57 +1806,62 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.4403774895962038,
"probability": 0.440264008555029,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.4893083217735598,
"probability": 0.48918223172781006,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.004381865568121431,
"probability": 0.004380736403532627,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.017269705474360936,
"probability": 0.013142209210597881,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "SDP",
"probability": 0.004381865568121431,
"probability": 0.004380736403532627,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Heritage Party",
"probability": 0.0017579939704439273,
"probability": 0.001757540952315485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "UKIP",
"probability": 0.0017579939704439273,
"probability": 0.001757540952315485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Womens Equality Party",
"probability": 0.0017579939704439273,
"probability": 0.001757540952315485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "North East Party",
"probability": 0.004381865568121431,
"probability": 0.004380736403532627,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sam Lee (Ind)",
"probability": 0.008720346328637699,
"probability": 0.008718099179307506,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)",
"probability": 0.0259045582115414,
"probability": 0.025897882856178178,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
"probability": 0.004380736403532627,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1919,98 +1924,108 @@
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",
"title": "London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan (Lab)",
"probability": 0.8759566247820383,
"probability": 0.8727825710411133,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey (Cons)",
"probability": 0.035038264991281536,
"probability": 0.03491130284164454,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sian Berry (Green)",
"probability": 0.004532312884444377,
"probability": 0.004515889919814716,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten (Heritage)",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London (Ind)",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem)",
"probability": 0.004532312884444377,
"probability": 0.004515889919814716,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose (Ind)",
"probability": 0.05358793469254823,
"name": "Brian Rose (London Real)",
"probability": 0.05339375728722106,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid (WEP)",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons (UKIP)",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"name": "Piers Corbyn (Let London Live)",
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nims Obunge (Ind)",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Count Binface",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "DrillMinister",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Winston McKenzie",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kam Balayev (Renew)",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox (Reclaim)",
"probability": 0.004532312884444377,
"probability": 0.004515889919814716,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Fosh (Ind)",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)",
"probability": 0.00181835307339984,
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)",
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vanessa Hudson (Animal Welfare)",
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Kelleher(SDP)",
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Niko Omilana (Ind)",
"probability": 0.0018117642193268622,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2050,19 +2065,141 @@
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Most votes match bet",
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet 1",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Max Fosh",
"probability": 0.1691842900302115,
"probability": 0.14473684210526316,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.8552631578947368,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Brian Rose 1st Round Vote Share",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 1%",
"probability": 0.24951531601395888,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1-2%",
"probability": 0.3175649476541295,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2-5%",
"probability": 0.2687088018611865,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5-10%",
"probability": 0.09703373400542846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Over 10%",
"probability": 0.06717720046529663,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Laurence Fox 1st Round Vote Share",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Under 1%",
"probability": 0.3558014642902244,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1-2%",
"probability": 0.33950521401738964,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2-5%",
"probability": 0.19766748016123575,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "5-10%",
"probability": 0.08086396915686918,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Over 10%",
"probability": 0.026161872374281202,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet 2",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.8308157099697885,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Count Binface",
"probability": 0.1691842900302115,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Which of these will get the most votes?",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
"probability": 0.05137182005083978,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Count Binface",
"probability": 0.017123940016946594,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
"probability": 0.3684898484659393,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.3175712512233732,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.1940713201920614,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
"probability": 0.05137182005083978,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
@ -2115,22 +2252,22 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.1806203362047116,
"probability": 0.15358630823753128,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.7718817786526136,
"probability": 0.7876220935258016,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.004493043189171929,
"probability": 0.0045846659175382476,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Plaid Cymru",
"probability": 0.04300484195350275,
"probability": 0.054206932319128695,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2499,12 +2636,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.4638069705093834,
"probability": 0.5263157894736842,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No SNP Majority",
"probability": 0.5361930294906166,
"probability": 0.47368421052631576,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2517,32 +2654,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.026276647470071912,
"probability": 0.0264933998764867,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.3970693395477533,
"probability": 0.4003447092446879,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.5164196612615289,
"probability": 0.5206795351448253,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
"probability": 0.008845604098836089,
"probability": 0.008918570255450968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.008845604098836089,
"probability": 0.008918570255450968,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alba",
"probability": 0.04254314352297357,
"probability": 0.034645215223098,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2610,28 +2747,43 @@
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.608410155137639,
"name": "Angus Robertson (SNP)",
"probability": 0.6242654624441708,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.07964642030892728,
"name": "Maddy Kirkman (Lab)",
"probability": 0.0672285882632184,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.2695724995071385,
"name": "Scott Douglas (Cons)",
"probability": 0.2689143530528736,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.00867436260790297,
"name": "Bruce Wilson (LD)",
"probability": 0.008653184627939,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Scottish Greens",
"probability": 0.033696562438392315,
"name": "Alison Johnstone (Green)",
"probability": 0.025705048453583502,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bonnie Price Bob (Ind)",
"probability": 0.001744454386071535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tam Laird (Libertarian)",
"probability": 0.001744454386071535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Mackay (UKIP)",
"probability": 0.001744454386071535,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -2643,23 +2795,38 @@
"platform": "Ladbrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "SNP",
"probability": 0.8702787392475269,
"name": "Nicola Sturgeon (SNP)",
"probability": 0.8631387294085772,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.10249949595581984,
"name": "Anas Sarwar (Lab)",
"probability": 0.10165856146367687,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Conservatives",
"probability": 0.01808814634514468,
"name": "Kyle Thornton (Cons)",
"probability": 0.01793974614064886,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrats",
"probability": 0.0091336184515087,
"name": "Carole Ford (Lib Dem)",
"probability": 0.009058683694783088,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greg Energy Adviser",
"probability": 0.0018262017029403031,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jayda Fransen (Ind)",
"probability": 0.0018262017029403031,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Derek Jackson (Liberal)",
"probability": 0.0045518758864332935,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -3159,24 +3326,6 @@
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Brian Rose to get over 5% of vote",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Shaun Bailey to get under 25% of R1 Vote",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
@ -3195,24 +3344,6 @@
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "London Mayoral Election: Laurence Fox to get over 5% of vote",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",
"platform": "LadBrokes",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.09090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9090909090909091,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"stars": 2
},
{
"title": "Next UK General Election: Conservatives to increase their majority from 2019 (80 seats)",
"url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights",

7673
data/metaculus-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because one or more lines are too long

610
data/metaforecasts.csv
View File

@ -43,8 +43,6 @@
","Less than 0.45%, Between 0.45% and 0.7%, inclusive, More than 0.7% but less than or equal to 0.95%, More than 0.95% but less than or equal to 1.2%, More than 1.2%"
"Will NVIDIA acquire Arm by March 31, 2022?","Context. On September 13, 2020, U.S.-based chipmaker NVIDIA announced an agreement with SoftBank to acquire the U.K.-based Arm Limited. CNN reports that the acquisition would make NVIDIA the largest chip company in the west by market value and global reach, and might leave China more vulnerable to U.S. controls over the semiconductor industry. Arm's energy efficient chip architectures are used in 95 percent of the world's smartphones and 95 percent of the chips designed in China. CNN states that ""China’s chip industry has urged Beijing to investigate the deal, warning that it will hand the U.S. control over a key technology that is used in almost all of the world’s phones.""The transaction is subject to audit in the United Kingdom, China, the European Union, and the United States. In the United States, the Federal Trade Commission's audit of the transaction is underway. NVIDIA has not yet requested approval from regulators in the European Union, the United Kingdom, or China. In China, the Ministry of Commerce or State Administration for Market Regulation cold block the deal. NVIDIA has stated that it expects the deal to be completed in 18 months. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on an NVIDIA press release stating that it has acquired Arm.***
","Yes, No"
"How many of the top chipmakers in China will be subject to new export controls in 2021?","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and the percentage of top SME producers' revenue that comes from China.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME). Chinese chipmakers can then use imported or domestically produced SME to produce chips domestically.For chip foundries, the top Chinese companies are Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), Hua Hong Semiconductor, Hua Li Microelectronics, and XMC. In September 2020, the Commerce Department notified the chip industry that SMIC was subject to military end-use end-user controls.For memory chips, China had three national champion companies: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC), and Fujian Jinhua Semiconductor. In October 2018, the Trump Administration placed Fujian Jinhua on the Entity List, effectively ending its ability to operate.The United States can impose export controls on technologies or companies. For the latter, the two primary mechanisms are (i) the Commerce Department's Entity List, and (ii) ""military end-use or end-user controls,"" which apply to exports to any Chinese end-user if the goods will be used for military purposes. Although the latter applies automatically to exports that satisfy the regulatory standard, the Commerce Department often notifies the chip industry when it determines that military end-use or end-user controls apply to a company, as it recently did for SMIC.For additional background, see Khan, U.S. Semiconductor Exports to China: Current Policies and Trends (2020).Data and resolution details. For this question, top chipmakers include: ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) Yangtze Memory Technology Co. (YMTC) Hua Hong Semiconductor Hua Li Microelectronics XMC SMIC and Fujian Jinhua are excluded because they were recently subjected to new export controls.New export controls will be considered imposed on a company if either (i) the Federal Register includes the addition to the Entity List, or (ii) popular media reports that the Commerce Department has notified the chip industry that the company is subject to military end-use or end-user controls.***This question is a metric for the following scenario:Four Possible Scenarios for U.S.-China [De]Coupling in the Semiconductor Industry
","Zero, One, Two or more"
"What percentage of the combined revenue of the top five semiconductor manufacturing equipment producers will come from China in 2021?","Related questions. This question is part of a cluster that includes U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China, U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, Chinese imports of semiconductor chips, and Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment.Context. The semiconductor manufacturing process has many components manufactured through complicated, highly globalized supply chains. China's ability to produce advanced semiconductor chips is particularly dependent on U.S., Japanese, and Dutch imports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) -- i.e., the tools used by chip factories to make chips. The top five SME companies globally are: United States: Applied Materials; Lam Research; KLA Japan: Tokyo Electron Netherlands: ASML Although China is building up its chip manufacturing capacity using imported SME, it is still reliant on imports for most of the semiconductor chips it consumes. China is especially reliant on the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea for imports of the most advanced semiconductor chips. Therefore, export controls on chips could reduce China's access to them. If China cannot import SME, it will remain dependent on imports for chips. This question focuses on SME. The United States is considering a number of actions that would reduce the export of SME to China. In September, the Trump Administration restricted exports to China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC). Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on the companies' quarterly and annual public filings through the quarter ending December 31, 2021. At that date, we expect to have data for all five companies through all of 2021 with the exception that we'll have data for KLA only through June 30, 2020. As of December 3, 2020, the figure for 2020 in the graph below includes the following: Lam Research through September 30, 2020; Applied Materials through September 30, 2020; KLA through June 30, 2020; and Tokyo Electron through September 30, 2020. We will supplement the graph with additional 2020 data as it becomes available. In particular, ASML data for all of 2020 will be added after ASML submits its annual financial report covering the period through December 31, 2020.The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for a forthcoming scenario on the future of the semiconductor industry.
","Less than 20%, Between 20% and 25%, inclusive, More than 25% but less than or equal to 30%, More than 30% but less than or equal to 35%, More than 35%"
"Will the United States return to compliance with the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by December 31, 2021?","Context. In September 2015, the United States entered into the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, a multilateral agreement involving Iran, the United States, China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union. The United Nations endorsed the agreement in Resolution 2231, which also provided for the ""lifting of all UN Security Council sanctions as well as multilateral and national sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear programme, including steps on access in areas of trade, technology, finance, and energy."" In May 2018, the Trump Administration announced it would withdraw from the agreement and reimpose sanctions on Iran (see Presidential Memorandum and Executive Order 13846).On September 13, 2020, President-Elect Biden stated that if ""Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations."" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif similarly stated that the United States could rejoin the agreement ""automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.""Doing so might prove challenging for numerous reasons, however. President Trump is reportedly ""pushing a plan to slap a long string of new sanctions on Iran in the 10 weeks left until Joe Biden’s inauguration."" The recent assassination of Iran's chief nuclear scientist and a possible administration change in Iran after the June election could provide additional challenges.Data and resolution details. This question resolves affirmatively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program, as required by UN Security Council Resolution 2231. An official statement by the United States that it's compliant with the sanctions requirements in Resolution 2231 will suffice. ***
@ -53,14 +51,10 @@
","Before February 17, 2021, Between February 17 and May 19, 2021, inclusive, After May 19, but before or equal to November 17, 2021, After November 17, 2021"
"What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2022 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. We previously asked a non-conditional version of this question regarding the 2021 pew survey, which is still live. You can view it here. Context. The percentage of U.S. residents with unfavorable views of China has increased steeply in response to concerns over the trade war, China’s growing military, and lack of faith in President Xi Jinping. According to a 2018 survey by the Pew Research Center, 47 percent of U.S. residents had an unfavorable view of China. That number has since risen steadily, reaching 66 percent in a March 2020 survey and 73 percent in a June-July 2020 survey.Data and resolution details. Pew conducts its U.S. Global Attitudes Survey at irregular intervals. Since 2014, it's conducted the survey annually between February and June. In 2020, it conducted two surveys, one in March and a second in June-July. This question resolves based on the results of a Pew U.S. Global Attitudes Survey that begins sometime between February 1 and June 30, 2022. If no survey begins during that period, this question will not be scored. You can read more about Pew's sampling methodology here. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenario: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","Less than 59%, Between 59% and 66%, inclusive, More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%, More than 73% but less than or equal to 80%, More than 80%"
"What percentage of U.S. AI publications will have a Chinese co-author in 2021?","Context. As U.S.-China tensions increase, policymakers are paying greater attention to areas in which the two countries are entangled. One such area relevant to tech-security policy is AI research collaborations. To date, the U.S.-China decoupling trends apparent in economic and immigration data do not appear to be impacting research collaborations. Whether potential conflicts between academic and security interests will begin to affect research collaborations is unclear.Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on Dimensions data. We classified publications as AI/ML-relevant or not using a predictive model trained on arXiv publication data, where a publication is relevant if it’s categorized on arXiv under any of artificial intelligence, machine learning, computer vision, computation and language, multiagent systems, or robotics. To read more about this method, see “Identifying the Development and Application of Artificial Intelligence in Scientific Text.” A publication is a U.S. publication if any author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization. A publication is a U.S.-China collaboration if at least one author is affiliated with a U.S.-based organization and at least one author is affiliated with a China-based organization. The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","Less than 15%, Between 15% and 17%, inclusive, More than 17% but less than or equal to 19%, More than 19% but less than or equal to 21%, More than 21%"
"Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?","Related questions. This question was previously conditioned on Vice President Biden's election. Now that Vice President has been elected, we dropped the condition. We also closed the sister question conditional on President Trump's re-election. You can view it here. Context. Because the commercial sector, rather than the U.S. government, is pushing the frontier of AI development, the relationship between tech companies and the U.S. government has national security implications. This relationship has been affected by the increasingly likely prospect that the U.S. government will use antitrust laws to break up the companies. After a 16 month investigation, the Democratic members of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Antitrust concluded on October 6, 2020 that Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google have engaged in anti-competitive behavior. On October 20, 2020, the Department of Justice filed a long-awaited antitrust lawsuit against Google. Data and resolution details. This question resolves based on a court filing or official announcement by the U.S. government. A lawsuit qualifies as an antitrust lawsuit if it's brought, at least in part, under the Sherman Act of 1890, Clayton Act of 1914, or Federal Trade Commission Act of 1914. ***This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today
","Yes, No"
"What percentage of U.S. corporate press releases about AI will reference AI ethics in 2021?","Data and resolution details. This question is based on data from the Nexis Metabase (2020), a corpus of global news articles on a variety of topics. The question is limited to press releases by companies that Nexis categorizes as corporate and located in the United States. A press release is on the topic of AI if it mentions the term ""artificial intelligence"" of ""machine learning""; and it's on the topic of AI ethics if it also mentions either ""ethics,"" ""bias,"" fairness,"" or any variant of those terms.  The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:The Impact of COVID-19 on the ML Research Field
","Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%"
"How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?","Context. Japan is a U.S. treaty ally and a major U.S. strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific. When Chinese military aircraft enter Japanese airspace without authorization, the Japanese air force sends fighter jets in response. The frequency of Chinese incursions into Japanese air space reflects tensions between China and Japan and the aggressiveness of China's foreign policy. For example, the spike in 2016 coincided with Japan's announced intention to revise its constitution in a manner China found threatening (Gui Yongtao).Data and resolution details. This question resolves in April 2021 based on official figures released by the Japanese government (Japan Air Self-Defense Force). The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios:Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy TodayTo suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.
","Less than 675, Between 675 and 750, inclusive, More than 750 but less than or equal to 825, More than 825 but less than or equal to 900, More than 900"
"Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",,"Yes, No"
"Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",,"Yes, No"
@ -81,8 +75,8 @@
"Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",,"Yes, No"
"Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",,"Yes, No"
"How frequently do you think in words?",,"Yes, No"
"How good is your memory?",,"Yes, No"
"Do you have an internal monologue?",,"Yes, No"
"How good is your memory?",,"Yes, No"
"How vivid is your touch imagination?",,"Yes, No"
"How much control do you have over your mind?",,"Yes, No"
"Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",,"Yes, No"
@ -100,314 +94,314 @@
"Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
"The Pope will be assassinated.",,"Yes, No"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",,"Yes, No"
"Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",,"Yes, No"
"The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",,"Yes, No"
"PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
"""There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin"" --Bill Walker, BBC",,"Yes, No"
"No military draft in the United States before 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",,"Yes, No"
"Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",,"Yes, No"
"Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ",,"Yes, No"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",,"Yes, No"
"No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",,"Yes, No"
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020?",,"Yes, No"
"Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",,"Yes, No"
"Trump wins Nobel",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
"Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",,"Yes, No"
"...be an environmental disaster.",,"Yes, No"
"Trump wins Nobel",,"Yes, No"
"California will secede from the United States before 2021",,"Yes, No"
"Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",,"Yes, No"
"Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",,"Yes, No"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",,"Yes, No"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",,"Yes, No"
"The Singularity will occur by 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"""I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.""",,"Yes, No"
"Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",,"Yes, No"
"50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",,"Yes, No"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"Will there be an ""Inverse AlphaFold"" by end of 2025?",,"Yes, No"
"Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",,"Yes, No"
"Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",,"Yes, No"
"PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",,"Yes, No"
"Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",,"Yes, No"
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",,"Yes, No"
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",,"Yes, No"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",,"Yes, No"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",,"Yes, No"
"Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",,"Yes, No"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",,"Yes, No"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",,"Yes, No"
"...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",,"Yes, No"
"In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",,"Yes, No"
"Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",,"Yes, No"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",,"Yes, No"
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",,"Yes, No"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",,"Yes, No"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",,"Yes, No"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",,"Yes, No"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",,"Yes, No"
"TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",,"Yes, No"
"For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",,"Yes, No"
"The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",,"Yes, No"
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",,"Yes, No"
"Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",,"Yes, No"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",,"Yes, No"
"Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",,"Yes, No"
"The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",,"Yes, No"
"Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",,"Yes, No"
"Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",,"Yes, No"
"...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",,"Yes, No"
"Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",,"Yes, No"
"...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",,"Yes, No"
"Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",,"Yes, No"
"China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",,"Yes, No"
"Google will survive for 15 more years",,"Yes, No"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",,"Yes, No"
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",,"Yes, No"
"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",,"Yes, No"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No"
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""",,"Yes, No"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",,"Yes, No"
"Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",,"Yes, No"
"Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",,"Yes, No"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",,"Yes, No"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",,"Yes, No"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",,"Yes, No"
"The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using ""more dakka"", for some reasonable version of ""more dakka""",,"Yes, No"
"...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",,"Yes, No"
"...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",,"Yes, No"
"Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",,"Yes, No"
"In the hypothetical, will an AI-induced point of no return happen by end of 2020?",,"Yes, No"
"In the hypothetical, will TAI be created by the end of 2020? (Inside-view)",,"Yes, No"
"United States will invade Australia and take over",,"Yes, No"
"Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",,"Yes, No"
"90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",,"Yes, No"
"Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",,"Yes, No"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",,"Yes, No"
"No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",,"Yes, No"
"The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",,"Yes, No"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",,"Yes, No"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",,"Yes, No"
"Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",,"Yes, No"
"The strategy-stealing assumption is ""a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true"". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",,"Yes, No"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",,"Yes, No"
"There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",,"Yes, No"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",,"Yes, No"
"Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",,"Yes, No"
"What percentage of people experience a ""Clogged drainpipe"" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",,"Yes, No"
"Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",,"Yes, No"
"We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",,"Yes, No"
"“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",,"Yes, No"
"The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",,"Yes, No"
"Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",,"Yes, No"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",,"Yes, No"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",,"Yes, No"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",,"Yes, No"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",,"Yes, No"
"It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",,"Yes, No"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",,"Yes, No"
"A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",,"Yes, No"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",,"Yes, No"
"“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",,"Yes, No"
"'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",,"Yes, No"
"Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",,"Yes, No"
"Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"aliens invade earth in 2023",,"Yes, No"
"Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",,"Yes, No"
"My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",,"Yes, No"
"The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",,"Yes, No"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",,"Yes, No"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",,"Yes, No"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",,"Yes, No"
"An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",,"Yes, No"
"Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable ""in ten thousand years, or so""",,"Yes, No"
"US presidents term limits abolished",,"Yes, No"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",,"Yes, No"
"If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",,"Yes, No"
"An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",,"Yes, No"
"Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",,"Yes, No"
"A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",,"Yes, No"
"Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",,"Yes, No"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",,"Yes, No"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",,"Yes, No"
"Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",,"Yes, No"
"Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",,"Yes, No"
"By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",,"Yes, No"
"US presidents term limits abolished",,"Yes, No"
"Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",,"Yes, No"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",,"Yes, No"
"Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",,"Yes, No"
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",,"Yes, No"
"Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",,"Yes, No"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",,"Yes, No"
"The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",,"Yes, No"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",,"Yes, No"
"If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",,"Yes, No"
"If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",,"Yes, No"
"If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",,"Yes, No"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",,"Yes, No"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",,"Yes, No"
"Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",,"Yes, No"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",,"Yes, No"
"There will NOT be a ""World War III"" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's ""allies"" and NATO and/or western europe)",,"Yes, No"
"C still widely in use in the 2020s",,"Yes, No"
"Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",,"Yes, No"
"Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",,"Yes, No"
"The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",,"Yes, No"
"A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",,"Yes, No"
"Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",,"Yes, No"
"USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",,"Yes, No"
"Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",,"Yes, No"
"The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",,"Yes, No"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",,"Yes, No"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",,"Yes, No"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",,"Yes, No"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",,"Yes, No"
"Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",,"Yes, No"
"The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",,"Yes, No"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
"The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",,"Yes, No"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",,"Yes, No"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",,"Yes, No"
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",,"Yes, No"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",,"Yes, No"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",,"Yes, No"
"By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",,"Yes, No"
"The message begins with ""Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow"". Should we execute it?",,"Yes, No"
"Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.
",,"Yes, No"
"The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",,"Yes, No"
"A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",,"Yes, No"
"I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",,"Yes, No"
"In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",,"Yes, No"
"Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",,"Yes, No"
"Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",,"Yes, No"
"Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",,"Yes, No"
"""by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system""",,"Yes, No"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",,"Yes, No"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",,"Yes, No"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",,"Yes, No"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",,"Yes, No"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",,"Yes, No"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",,"Yes, No"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",,"Yes, No"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",,"Yes, No"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",,"Yes, No"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",,"Yes, No"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",,"Yes, No"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",,"Yes, No"
"North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",,"Yes, No"
"""Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs."" --James Miller",,"Yes, No"
"Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",,"Yes, No"
"Trump dies of COVID-19",,"Yes, No"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",,"Yes, No"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",,"Yes, No"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",,"Yes, No"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",,"Yes, No"
"ETI is AGI",,"Yes, No"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
"If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI ""spaceship"" be larger than 1m in size?",,"Yes, No"
"In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",,"Yes, No"
"By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",,"Yes, No"
"Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",,"Yes, No"
"We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",,"Yes, No"
"There be a ""SETI Winter"" before First Contact.",,"Yes, No"
"The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",,"Yes, No"
"Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",,"Yes, No"
"ETI is AGI",,"Yes, No"
"USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",,"Yes, No"
"All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",,"Yes, No"
"Truly ""Pilotless"" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"10 million",,"Yes, No"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",,"Yes, No"
"The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",,"Yes, No"
"Humanity still a thing in 2036",,"Yes, No"
"Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",,"Yes, No"
"North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",,"Yes, No"
"Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",,"Yes, No"
"Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",,"Yes, No"
"By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",,"Yes, No"
"By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",,"Yes, No"
"Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",,"Yes, No"
"""The Essential Workers"" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",,"Yes, No"
"Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, ""How to create a mind"")",,"Yes, No"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",,"Yes, No"
"Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",,"Yes, No"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",,"Yes, No"
"100 million",,"Yes, No"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",,"Yes, No"
"If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",,"Yes, No"
"Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",,"Yes, No"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",,"Yes, No"
"If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",,"Yes, No"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",,"Yes, No"
"“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",,"Yes, No"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",,"Yes, No"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",,"Yes, No"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",,"Yes, No"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",,"Yes, No"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",,"Yes, No"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",,"Yes, No"
"""Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150."" -lukeprog",,"Yes, No"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",,"Yes, No"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",,"Yes, No"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",,"Yes, No"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",,"Yes, No"
"If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to ""train it away""? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",,"Yes, No"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",,"Yes, No"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",,"Yes, No"
"We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",,"Yes, No"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",,"Yes, No"
"1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",,"Yes, No"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",,"Yes, No"
"the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",,"Yes, No"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",,"Yes, No"
"The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",,"Yes, No"
"Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",,"Yes, No"
"Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",,"Yes, No"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",,"Yes, No"
"Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",,"Yes, No"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",,"Yes, No"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",,"Yes, No"
"There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",,"Yes, No"
"Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",,"Yes, No"
"'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",,"Yes, No"
"“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",,"Yes, No"
"Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",,"Yes, No"
"At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
"Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",,"Yes, No"
"100 million",,"Yes, No"
"Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",,"Yes, No"
"North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",,"Yes, No"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",,"Yes, No"
"""there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years."" - Scott Adams",,"Yes, No"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
"50 million",,"Yes, No"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",,"Yes, No"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",,"Yes, No"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",,"Yes, No"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",,"Yes, No"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",,"Yes, No"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",,"Yes, No"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",,"Yes, No"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",,"Yes, No"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",,"Yes, No"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",,"Yes, No"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",,"Yes, No"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",,"Yes, No"
"Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",,"Yes, No"
"The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",,"Yes, No"
"People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",,"Yes, No"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",,"Yes, No"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",,"Yes, No"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",,"Yes, No"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",,"Yes, No"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",,"Yes, No"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",,"Yes, No"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",,"Yes, No"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",,"Yes, No"
"Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",,"Yes, No"
"Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",,"Yes, No"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",,"Yes, No"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",,"Yes, No"
"Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",,"Yes, No"
"“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",,"Yes, No"
"Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",,"Yes, No"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No"
"In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",,"Yes, No"
"They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",,"Yes, No"
"Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",,"Yes, No"
"As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",,"Yes, No"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",,"Yes, No"
"Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the ""same""? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some ""final being""?",,"Yes, No"
"The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",,"Yes, No"
"The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",,"Yes, No"
"The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",,"Yes, No"
"Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",,"Yes, No"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",,"Yes, No"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",,"Yes, No"
"'President Mike Pence'",,"Yes, No"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",,"Yes, No"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",,"Yes, No"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",,"Yes, No"
"""within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million."" --Dennis Mangan",,"Yes, No"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",,"Yes, No"
"A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",,"Yes, No"
"The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",,"Yes, No"
"We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",,"Yes, No"
"The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",,"Yes, No"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",,"Yes, No"
"some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",,"Yes, No"
"""At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.""",,"Yes, No"
"The LW user account ""Grognor"" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",,"Yes, No"
"Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",,"Yes, No"
"Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",,"Yes, No"
"Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Trump will run for president in 2024",,"Yes, No"
"'President Mike Pence'",,"Yes, No"
"Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",,"Yes, No"
"No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"""In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones"" --Marc Andreessen",,"Yes, No"
"“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",,"Yes, No"
"By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",,"Yes, No"
"Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",,"Yes, No"
"""By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.""",,"Yes, No"
"At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",,"Yes, No"
"No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",,"Yes, No"
"Trump wins the 2020 election.",,"Yes, No"
"At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",,"Yes, No"
"Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",,"Yes, No"
"SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",,"Yes, No"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",,"Yes, No"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",,"Yes, No"
"By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",,"Yes, No"
"Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
"Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",,"Yes, No"
"Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",,"Yes, No"
"GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",,"Yes, No"
"50 million",,"Yes, No"
"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",,"Yes, No"
"Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",,"Yes, No"
"Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",,"Yes, No"
"Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",,"Yes, No"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",,"Yes, No"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",,"Yes, No"
"“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",,"Yes, No"
"“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",,"Yes, No"
"“China will break apart by 2030”",,"Yes, No"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",,"Yes, No"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",,"Yes, No"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",,"Yes, No"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",,"Yes, No"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",,"Yes, No"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",,"Yes, No"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",,"Yes, No"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",,"Yes, No"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",,"Yes, No"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",,"Yes, No"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",,"Yes, No"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",,"Yes, No"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",,"Yes, No"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",,"Yes, No"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",,"Yes, No"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",,"Yes, No"
"Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",,"Yes, No"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",,"Yes, No"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",,"Yes, No"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",,"Yes, No"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",,"Yes, No"
"By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",,"Yes, No"
"Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years.
By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",,"Yes, No"
"By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",,"Yes, No"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",,"Yes, No"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",,"Yes, No"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",,"Yes, No"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",,"Yes, No"
"Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as ""very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?""",,"Yes, No"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",,"Yes, No"
"A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",,"Yes, No"
"By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",,"Yes, No"
"More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",,"Yes, No"
"Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes, No"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
"SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",,"Yes, No"
"Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",,"Yes, No"
"Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",,"Yes, No"
"Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",,"Yes, No"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",,"Yes, No"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",,"Yes, No"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",,"Yes, No"
"Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",,"Yes, No"
"EU to dissolve by 2040.",,"Yes, No"
"We ask ETI ""do we live in a simulation""? They answer ""yes"".",,"Yes, No"
"Mans response primarily stems from how the system trained him",,"Yes, No"
"P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",,"Yes, No"
"In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",,"Yes, No"
"Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",,"Yes, No"
"What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",,"Yes, No"
"Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",,"Yes, No"
"The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",,"Yes, No"
"By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",,"Yes, No"
"Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",,"Yes, No"
"Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",,"Yes, No"
"HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",,"Yes, No"
"The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",,"Yes, No"
"By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",,"Yes, No"
"Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",,"Yes, No"
"Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",,"Yes, No"
"By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",,"Yes, No"
"Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",,"Yes, No"
"WWIII starts before 2030.",,"Yes, No"
"Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",,"Yes, No"
"A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",,"Yes, No"
"HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",,"Yes, No"
"By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",,"Yes, No"
"At least one self-described ""anarchist"" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",,"Yes, No"
"1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",,"Yes, No"
"In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",,"Yes, No"
"Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",,"Yes, No"
""". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form."" --Dan King",,"Yes, No"
"homosexuality criminalized in the US",,"Yes, No"
"Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",,"Yes, No"
"No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",,"Yes, No"
"Estimates for Security (Symbol)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Security* (sticker symbol Symbol). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
"Estimates for 3M Company (MMM)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *3M Company* (sticker symbol MMM). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
"Estimates for Abbott Laboratories (ABT)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Abbott Laboratories* (sticker symbol ABT). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
@ -914,62 +908,60 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes
"Estimates for Zimmer Biomet (ZBH)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zimmer Biomet* (sticker symbol ZBH). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
"Estimates for Zions Bancorp (ZION)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zions Bancorp* (sticker symbol ZION). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
"Estimates for Zoetis (ZTS)","A link to Estimize's forecasts for *Zoetis* (sticker symbol ZTS). Viewing them requires making a prediction, Wall Street estimates are provided for free",""
"In Google LLC v. Oracle America Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","21.43% (21 out of 98) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","74.47% (70 out of 94) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","52.94% (27 out of 51) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","33.87% (21 out of 62) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","10.71% (9 out of 84) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","28.57% (14 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","73.33% (44 out of 60) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","14.29% (8 out of 56) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","65.85% (27 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","36.73% (18 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Facebook Inc. v. Duguid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","58.54% (24 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","62.50% (20 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","84.38% (27 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Federal Communications Commission v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","18.92% (7 out of 37) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","60.00% (3 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.00% (2 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (6 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","16.67% (1 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.00% (1 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","15.38% (2 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","80.00% (12 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","18.18% (2 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","31.25% (5 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","37.50% (6 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 64.71% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Google LLC v. Oracle America Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","21.43% (21 out of 98) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","73.68% (70 out of 95) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Borden v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","52.94% (27 out of 51) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","33.33% (21 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","10.47% (9 out of 86) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Niz-Chavez v. Barr, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","28.57% (14 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Texas v. California (Severability), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","30.16% (19 out of 63) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In California v. Texas (Standing), the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","73.33% (44 out of 60) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Van Buren v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","14.04% (8 out of 57) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Cargill, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","15.79% (6 out of 38) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Nestle USA, Inc. v. Doe I, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","19.51% (8 out of 41) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In CIC Services, LLC v. Internal Revenue Service, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","66.67% (28 out of 42) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Edwards v. Vannoy, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","36.73% (18 out of 49) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Henry Schein Inc. v. Archer, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","6.25% (2 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Mnuchin v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","63.64% (21 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Collins v. Mnuchin, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","84.85% (28 out of 33) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Pham v. Guzman Chavez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","34.38% (11 out of 32) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In AMG Capital Management, LLC v. FTC, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","25.81% (8 out of 31) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In BP P.L.C. v. Mayor and City Council of Baltimore, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","22.22% (8 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Cedar Point Nursery v. Hassid, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","50.00% (3 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Caniglia v. Strom, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","22.22% (2 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Goldman Sachs Group Inc. v. Arkansas Teacher Retirement System, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","75.00% (6 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In TransUnion LLC v. Ramirez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","14.29% (1 out of 7) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In National Collegiate Athletic Association v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","77.78% (7 out of 9) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In American Athletic Conference v. Alston, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","33.33% (2 out of 6) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Yellen v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Alaska Native Village Corporation Association v. Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Greer v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In City of San Antonio, Texas v. Hotels.com, L.P., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Minerva Surgical Inc. v. Hologic Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Guam v. United States, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Thomas More Law Center v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Becerra, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In HollyFrontier Cheyenne Refining, LLC v. Renewable Fuels Association, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (2 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Palomar-Santiago, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 2) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Department of Justice v. House Committee on the Judiciary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 8) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In United States v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","81.25% (13 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Carr v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","31.25% (5 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Smith & Nephew Inc. v. Arthrex Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","80.00% (12 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Arthrex Inc. v. Smith & Nephew Inc., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","15.38% (2 out of 13) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Lange v. California, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","36.11% (13 out of 36) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Davis v. Saul, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","16.67% (2 out of 12) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Trump v. Sierra Club, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","66.67% (10 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Barr v. Dai, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","37.50% (6 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Barr v. Alcaraz-Enriquez, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","53.33% (8 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In National Association of Broadcasters v. Prometheus Radio Project, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","18.18% (2 out of 11) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 8-1. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Wolf v. Innovation Law Lab, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 7-2. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","0.00% (0 out of 20) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision","4.00% (1 out of 25) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 63.16% of the time.","Yes, No"
"Hours of 80,000 Hours podcast content released","",""
"% global rate of ""$1.90 a day"" poverty in 2030","",""
"A bioengineering project kills at least five thousand people by 2023-02-15","","Yes, No"
@ -1229,9 +1221,7 @@ http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",,"Yes
"What will be OPEC's crude oil production for June 2021?</a>","It remains to be seen how the COVID-19 pandemic will affect <a href=""https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/04/13/a-historic-opec-deal-to-curb-oil-output-faces-many-obstacles"" target=""_blank"">OPEC</a> <a href=""https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/23/the-coronavirus-oil-shock-is-just-getting-started/"" target=""_blank"">production</a> after 2020. The outcome will be determined using monthly data for ""Total OPEC"" reported in the ""OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d table of the ""World Oil Supply"" section of OPEC's <a href=""https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/5844.htm"" target=""_blank"">Monthly Oil Market Report</a>. The April 2020 report shows ""Total OPEC"" produced 28.612 million barrels per day in <a href=""https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/OPEC_MOMR_Apr_2020.pdf"" target=""_blank"">March 2020</a> (see Table 5.8 on page 45 in the document). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2021 and closed when the June 2021 data are released, scheduled for July 2021.","Less than 21 million barrels per day, Between 21 million and 24 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 24 million but less than 27 million barrels per day, Between 27 million and 30 million barrels per day, inclusive, More than 30 million barrels per day"
"Will US federal legislation implementing or authorizing a mandatory ""carbon pricing mechanism"" become law before 1 January 2023?</a>","President Biden and Democrats in Congress are exploring <a href=""https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/2020/11/president-elect-biden-supports-a-carbon-enforcement-mechanism-could-that-mean-a-price-on-carbon/"" target=""_blank"">policy</a> <a href=""https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/534985-carbon-pricing-could-be-the-biden-administrations-climate-tool"" target=""_blank"">options</a> to impose <a href=""https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/649352/EPRS_BRI%282020%29649352_EN.pdf"" target=""_blank"">mandatory</a> carbon pricing in the United States. For the purposes of this question, a ""carbon <a href=""https://carbonpricingdashboard.worldbank.org/what-carbon-pricing"" target=""_blank"">pricing</a> mechanism"" would be a legal framework that captures the external costs of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ties them to their sources through a price, usually in the form of a price on the CO2 emitted, and could include taxes and/or a cap-and-trade system. Examples of existing mandatory carbon pricing mechanisms include the <a href=""https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en"" target=""_blank"">EU</a> Emissions Trading System, the <a href=""https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/our-work/programs/cap-and-trade-program"" target=""_blank"">California</a> Cap-and-Trade Program, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas <a href=""https://www.rggi.org"" target=""_blank"">Initiative</a>.","Yes, No"
"When will the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered reach 1.5 billion worldwide?</a>","With several COVID-19 vaccines now approved in different jurisdictions to fight the pandemic, the focus has shifted to <a href=""https://www.france24.com/en/health/20210204-more-people-now-vaccinated-against-covid-19-than-infected-worldwide-data-shows"" target=""_blank"">vaccination</a>. The outcome will be determined using data as reported by <a href=""https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations"" target=""_blank"">Our World in Data</a> for World. Click on the ""TABLE"" tab, scroll to the bottom to reach the entry for ""World,"" and see the relevant number in the column titled ""End."" The date slider must be located all the way to the right to see the latest figure.","Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
"How many total cases of COVID-19 worldwide will be estimated as of 31 March 2021?</a>","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.The outcome will be determined based not on available data on confirmed cases, but on credible case estimates of COVID-19 from approved scientific sources, which are, in ranked order: WHO, The Lancet, the New England Journal of Medicine, Nature, Science, and the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (e.g., <a href=""https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2932009-2/fulltext"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18272-4"" target=""_blank"">here</a>, <a href=""https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-archive-united-nations-54a3a5869c9ae4ee623497691e796083"" target=""_blank"">here</a>). This question will be suspended on 31 March 2021 and closed on 30 June 2021, after assessing estimates for the period ending 31 March 2021. If estimates provided are a range, the midpoint of the range will be used to determine the outcome of the question. If more than one estimate from the highest-ranked publication is available as of 30 June 2021, the most recent estimate will be used. The outcome will be determined based on estimates inclusive of cases before this question's launch. For the companion forecasting question on confirmed cases of COVID-19, please see #1438.","Fewer than 200 million, Between 200 million and 500 million, inclusive, More than 500 million but fewer than 960 million, Between 960 million and 1.6 billion, inclusive, More than 1.6 billion"
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 200 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>",,"Before 1 April 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 30 September 2021, Between 1 October 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
"When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 100 million people be distributed in the United States?</a>","This question was commissioned by <a href=""https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/forecasting-covid-19-pandemic"" target=""_blank"">Open Philanthropy</a>.Dozens of <a href=""https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines"" target=""_blank"">companies</a> are trying to <a href=""https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/08/06/the-world-is-spending-nowhere-near-enough-on-a-coronavirus-vaccine"" target=""_blank"">develop</a> a <a href=""https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html"" target=""_blank"">viable</a> vaccine for COVID-19. The <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-key-action-fight-against-covid-19-issuing-emergency-use-authorization-first-covid-19"" target=""_blank"">FDA</a> has authorized <a href=""https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/12/how-fedex-ups-plan-to-distribute-fda-approved-covid-vaccine-when-will-you-get-the-coronavirus-vaccine.html"" target=""_blank"">Pfizer</a>'s COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use and is executing its plan for distribution. Information on FDA approval processes and circumstances when those processes can be waived can be found <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/development-approval-process-cber/vaccine-development-101"" target=""_blank"">here</a> and <a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">here</a>. ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access"" target=""_blank"">Compassionate use</a>"" and ""<a href=""https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization"" target=""_blank"">emergency use</a>"" authorizations would count as approval, and any vaccine doses distributed in the United States prior to its approval would also count. Reporting from credible public health sources, such as the CDC and FDA, will be used to determine the number of doses distributed. Approximately <a href=""https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccinesupply-2018.htm"" target=""_blank"">169.1</a> million vaccine doses for the 2018-2019 flu season were distributed in the United States. If an approved COVID-19 vaccine requires the administration of more than one dose, then the threshold would be the total number of doses needed to inoculate 100 million people (e.g., if two doses are required, then 200 million doses would need to be distributed to resolve the question).","Before 1 February 2021, Between 1 February 2021 and 31 March 2021, Between 1 April 2021 and 31 May 2021, Between 1 June 2021 and 31 July 2021, Not before 1 August 2021"
"When will the UK report that 35 million people in the UK have been vaccinated for COVID-19?</a>","The UK gave the first dose of Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine on 8 December 2020 and is <a href=""https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/12/08/944125280/u-k-begins-nationwide-coronavirus-immunization-largest-in-nations-history"" target=""_blank"">pushing</a> to <a href=""https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-55227325"" target=""_blank"">execute</a> its <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-protocol-for-covid-19-mrna-vaccine-bnt162b2-pfizerbiontech"" target=""_blank"">plan</a>. The outcome will be determined using data when and as reported by the <a href=""https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus"" target=""_blank"">UK</a> <a href=""https://twitter.com/nadhimzahawi/status/1339167258866814976"" target=""_blank"">government</a>. For the purposes of this question, a person will be considered to have been vaccinated upon receiving a single dose of a vaccine, irrespective of plans or requirements for additional doses for the same people.","Before 1 March 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Not before 1 September 2021"
"When will the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) next screen 1.4 million or more travelers per day for seven consecutive days?</a>","With COVID-19 vaccine approvals, airlines are looking to <a href=""https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/north-american-post-pandemic-travel-recovery-report/"" target=""_blank"">recover</a> from the drop in travel caused by the pandemic. The outcome will be determined using the ""TSA checkpoint travel numbers"" reported by the TSA (<a href=""https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput"" target=""_blank"">www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput</a>). The question will resolve when data in the column ""2021 Traveler Throughput"" first shows seven consecutive days of 1.4 million or more travelers.","Before 1 July 2021, Between 1 July 2021 and 31 August 2021, Between 1 September 2021 and 31 October 2021, Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021, Not before 1 January 2022"
"As of 1 July 2021, what will be the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest report of the percentage of working adults who ""worked from home exclusively""?</a>",,"10% or less, More than 10% but less than 20%, Between 20% and 30%, inclusive, More than 30%"
@ -1799,9 +1789,13 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol
"Hartlepool By-election: Winner",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)"
"Hartlepool By-election: Thelma Walker Vote Share",,"Under 5%, 5-10%, 10-20%, Over 20%"
"Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, SNP"
"London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner (Void if no 2021 election)",,"Sadiq Khan (Lab), Shaun Bailey (Cons), Sian Berry (Green), David Kurten (Heritage), Farah London (Ind), Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem), Brian Rose (Ind), Mandu Reid (WEP), Peter Gammons (UKIP), Piers Corbyn, Nims Obunge (Ind), Count Binface, DrillMinister, Winston McKenzie, Kam Balayev (Renew), Laurence Fox (Reclaim), Max Fosh (Ind), Valerie Brown (Burning Pink)"
"London Mayoral Election: 2021 Election Winner",,"Sadiq Khan (Lab), Shaun Bailey (Cons), Sian Berry (Green), David Kurten (Heritage), Farah London (Ind), Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem), Brian Rose (London Real), Mandu Reid (WEP), Peter Gammons (UKIP), Piers Corbyn (Let London Live), Nims Obunge (Ind), Count Binface, Kam Balayev (Renew), Laurence Fox (Reclaim), Max Fosh (Ind), Valerie Brown (Burning Pink), Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU), Vanessa Hudson (Animal Welfare), Steve Kelleher(SDP), Niko Omilana (Ind)"
"London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan R1 Vote Share",,"Under 35%, 35-40%, 40-45%, 45-50%, Over 50%"
"London Mayoral Election: Most votes match bet",,"Max Fosh, Laurence Fox"
"London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet 1",,"Max Fosh, Laurence Fox"
"London Mayoral Election: Brian Rose 1st Round Vote Share",,"Under 1%, 1-2%, 2-5%, 5-10%, Over 10%"
"London Mayoral Election: Laurence Fox 1st Round Vote Share",,"Under 1%, 1-2%, 2-5%, 5-10%, Over 10%"
"London Mayoral Election: Most Votes Match Bet 2",,"Laurence Fox, Count Binface"
"London Mayoral Election: Which of these will get the most votes?",,"Piers Corbyn, Count Binface, Peter Gammons, Brian Rose, Laurence Fox, David Kurten"
"Boris Johnson: When will Johnson be replaced as PM? (1st Instance Only)",,"2021, 2022, 2023 or later"
"Boris Johnson: Leader at Next General Election?",,"To be Tory leader at next general election, NOT to be Tory leader at next general election"
"2021 Welsh Assembly Elections: Most Seats",,"Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru"
@ -1826,9 +1820,7 @@ If OxCGRT's primary dataset stops reporting these data before the question resol
"2024 US Presidential Election: Donald Trump to be elected President as a third party candidate",,"Yes, No"
"2024 US Presidential Election: Donald Trump to run and win with over 75% of popular vote",,"Yes, No"
"London Mayoral Election: Sadiq Khan NOT to win",,"Yes, No"
"London Mayoral Election: Brian Rose to get over 5% of vote",,"Yes, No"
"London Mayoral Election: Shaun Bailey to get under 25% of R1 Vote",,"Yes, No"
"London Mayoral Election: Laurence Fox to get over 5% of vote",,"Yes, No"
"Next UK General Election: Conservatives to increase their majority from 2019 (80 seats)",,"Yes, No"
"Next UK General Election: Conservatives Do Not Win Most Seats",,"Yes, No"
"Next UK General Election: Conservatives fail to win a majority",,"Yes, No"
@ -16244,47 +16236,8 @@ As of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.
What will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?
Real Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).
",""
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?"," This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on June 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/
","Yes, No"
"Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?","This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .
","Yes, No"
"Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?","This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for ""Yes"" and .10 for ""No"", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
"Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?","This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.
","Yes, No"
"Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?","This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?","This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and ""No"" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.","Yes, No"
"Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.","Yes, No"
"Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?","This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/.
If any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""Yes"". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
"Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?","This is a market on whether the American ""observed mask usage"" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Yes, No"
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No"
"Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?","This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board.
","Yes, No"
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.","Yes, No"
"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","Yes, No"
"How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?","This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a ""hung jury"" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, ""0"". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.","0, 1, 2"
"Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?","This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will Matt Gaetz continue to hold Congressional office through June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Matt Gaetz will hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st Congressional District from the date of the creation of this market through June 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" in the event that Matt Gaetz continues to hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. In the event that Matt Gaetz resigns, is removed from office, or is no longer in office for any reason prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to ""No"" immediately. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.house.gov/representatives. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No"
"Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ","This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ","Yes, No"
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","Yes, No"
"How many more tweets will be on the @laurenboebert account on April 6, 2021?","This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Lauren Boebert’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, April 6, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET.
At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @laurenboebert, shall exceed 3593 (the ""Baseline"") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label ""TWEETS"" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @laurenboebert, then clicking the verified account labeled “@laurenboebert” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @laurenboebert just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.
@ -16294,12 +16247,35 @@ Neither Lauren Boebert, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need
Should the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.
In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).","Less than 30, 30-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, More than 80"
"How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?","This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a ""hung jury"" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, ""0"". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.","0, 1, 2"
"Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?","This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will there be more than 140 million confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by April 20, 2021?","This is a market on the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases there will be globally by April 20, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there are more than 140 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally on or before the resolution date. This market will resolve to “No” if there are not more than 140 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 globally by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, globally, as indicated by the World Health Organization’s Coronavirus Disease Dashboard (https://covid19.who.int/).","Yes, No"
"Will the workers at Amazon's Bessemer facility unionize by May 5?","This is a market on whether the workers at the Amazon fulfillment center in Bessemer, Alabama, will win their effort to unionize by May 5, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Labor Relations Board certifies the RETAIL, WHOLESALE AND DEPARTMENT STORE UNION as the representative of the workers at the Amazon Bessemer facility for the purposes of collective bargaining (Case Number: 10-RC-269250, https://www.nlrb.gov/case/10-RC-269250). This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be an official “Certification of Representative” decision from the National Labor Relations Board.
","Yes, No"
"Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes"". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No"". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ","Yes, No"
"Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ","This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",""
"Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ","This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
",""
"Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ","This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ","Yes, No"
"Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?","This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to ""Yes"" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.","Yes, No"
"Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?","This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to ""Yes"".","Yes, No"
"Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?","This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to ""No"" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.
","Yes, No"
"Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?","This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes"" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No"" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?","This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?","This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.
",""
"Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?","This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to ""No"". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Yes, No"
"Will Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021?","This is a market on who will have a higher net worth on April 25, 2021, 12:00 PM EST, Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk. The resolution options for this market are Jeff Bezos, the founder and longtime CEO of Amazon, and Elon Musk, current CEO of Tesla. The resolution source for this market will be Forbes’ World’s Real Time Billionaires list (http://forbes.com/real-time-billionaires). This market will resolve to Jeff Bezos if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Elon Musk on the resolution date. This market will resolve to Elon Musk if, according to the resolution source, he has a higher net worth, in USD, than Jeff Bezos on the resolution date. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
","Bezos, Musk"
"Will there be enough signatures for a vote on the recall of Gov. Newsom by March 17?","This is a market on if there will be enough petition signatures for a vote on the recall of California Governor Gavin Newson prior to March 17, 2021. This market will resolve to ""Yes"" if a recall election is triggered and ""No"" otherwise. The linked PredictIt question will be referenced as the leading resolution source, https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7039/Will-there-be-enough-signatures-by-Mar-17-for-a-vote-on-recall-of-Gov-Newsom. This market will resolve when the PredictIt market is resolved, to the same outcome.","Yes, No"
"Which party will win the 2020 House race in Iowa's 2nd District?","The contract that resolves to Yes shall be that which names the party whose candidate wins the 2020 election to the House of Representatives from Iowa's 2nd Congressional District. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee, or has a ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable party preference, of the party in question.
PredictIt reserves the right to wait for further official, party, judicial or other relevant announcements, reports or decisions to resolve any ambiguity or uncertainty before the market is settled. Markets may stay open or incur a delay in settlement well past the date of the contest in certain circumstances. If there is any change to an event, or any situation arises, that is not in PredictIt’s view addressed adequately by the market rules, PredictIt will decide the fairest and most appropriate course of action.
PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.
@ -17053,11 +17029,11 @@ Other candidates available on request.","Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan,
"North East Party",,"Yes, No"
"Samantha Lee (Ind)",,"Yes, No"
"US Politics - Kamala Harris Specials",,"Kamala Harris to become President of the United States before the end of 2040, Kamala Harris to become a two-term President of the United States before the end of 2040"
"Prime Minister Betting",,"Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove, Dominic Raab, Priti Patel, Liz Truss, Sajid Javid, Matthew Hancock, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage, Steve Baker, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Kemi Badenoch, Mark Harper, Penny Mordaunt, Steve Barclay, Yvette Cooper, Bim Afolami, Anneliese Dodds, Grant Shapps, Damian Hinds, Sadiq Khan, Johnny Mercer, Tobias Ellwood, Robert Jenrick, Gavin Williamson, Amanda Milling, Ed Davey, Angela Rayner, Ben Wallace, David Miliband, Gillian Keegan, Dan Jarvis, Hilary Benn, Caroline Lucas, Ed Miliband, John McDonnell, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Rebecca Long-Bailey, David Davis, Bridget Phillipson, Margaret Beckett, Jess Phillips, Helen Whately, Phillip Hammond, David Cameron, Esther McVey, Kit Malthouse, Ruth Davidson, Emily Thornberry, Rory Stewart, Eddie Hughes, Andrea Jenkyns, Harriet Harman, Daisy Cooper, Jeremy Corbyn, Layla Moran, Piers Morgan"
"Prime Minister Betting",,"Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer, Michael Gove, Jeremy Hunt, Dominic Raab, Priti Patel, Liz Truss, Sajid Javid, Matthew Hancock, Tom Tugendhat, James Cleverly, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nigel Farage, Steve Baker, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Kemi Badenoch, Mark Harper, Penny Mordaunt, Steve Barclay, Yvette Cooper, Bim Afolami, Anneliese Dodds, Grant Shapps, Damian Hinds, Sadiq Khan, Johnny Mercer, Tobias Ellwood, Robert Jenrick, Gavin Williamson, Amanda Milling, Ed Davey, Angela Rayner, Ben Wallace, David Miliband, Gillian Keegan, Dan Jarvis, Hilary Benn, Caroline Lucas, Ed Miliband, John McDonnell, Andrea Leadsom, Geoffrey Cox, Rebecca Long-Bailey, David Davis, Bridget Phillipson, Margaret Beckett, Jess Phillips, Helen Whately, Phillip Hammond, David Cameron, Esther McVey, Kit Malthouse, Ruth Davidson, Emily Thornberry, Rory Stewart, Eddie Hughes, Andrea Jenkyns, Harriet Harman, Daisy Cooper, Jeremy Corbyn, Layla Moran, Piers Morgan"
"Boris Johnson Exit Date",,"2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 or later, To be Tory leader at next General Election, To NOT be Tory leader at next General Election"
"Keir Starmer Exit Date",,"2023 or Earlier, 2024, 2025 or Later"
"Next Permanent Labour Leader After Keir Starmer",,"Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan, Rosena Allin-Khan, Nick Thomas-Symonds, Yvette Cooper, Anneliese Dodds, David Lammy, Dan Jarvis, Seema Malhotra, Jess Phillips, Rachel Reeves, James Murray, Clive Lewis, Zarah Sultana, Hilary Benn, Lousie Haigh, Shabana Mahmood, Stephen Kinnock, Jim McMahon, Stella Creasy, Emma Hardy, Bridget Phillipson, Richard Burgon, Ed Miliband, Matthew Pennycook, Lucy Powell, Dawn Butler, Alison McGovern, Janet Daby, Rebecca Long-Bailey, Jonathan Ashworth, Dan Carden, Ian Murray, Wes Streeting, Peter Kyle, David Miliband, Darren Jones, Chi Onwurah, Rosie Duffield, Diane Abbott, Nia Griffith, Jonathan Reynolds, Liz Kendall, John McDonnell, Preet Gill, Helen Hayes, Vicky Foxcroft, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, Nadia Whittome, Angela Eagle, Justin Madders, Ian Lavery, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, Emily Thornberry, Barry Gardiner, Jeremy Corbyn, Kate Osamor, Tony Blair"
"Next London Mayoral Election",,"Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Brian Rose, Sian Berry, Laurence Fox, Luisa Porritt, David Kurten, Peter Gammons, Kam Balayev, Count Binface, Piers Corbyn, Farah London, Nims Obunge, Max Fosh, Mandu Reid, Drillminister, Valerie Brown"
"Next London Mayoral Election",,"Sadiq Khan, Shaun Bailey, Brian Rose, Laurence Fox, Sian Berry, Luisa Porritt, David Kurten, Peter Gammons, Kam Balayev, Count Binface, Piers Corbyn, Farah London, Nims Obunge, Max Fosh, Mandu Reid, Drillminister, Valerie Brown"
"Scottish Election 2021 - Most Seats",,"SNP, Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Greens, Reform UK"
"Most Seats in General Election",,"Conservative, Labour, Reform UK, Liberal Democrat, UKIP, Greens"
"Next Permanent Scottish First Minister",,"Angus Robertson, Kate Forbes, John Swinney, Joanna Cherry, Humza Yousaf, Keith Brown, Douglas Ross, Mhairi Black, Michael Russell, Ruth Davidson, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Derek Mackay, Alex Salmond, Anas Sarwar, Shona Robison, Stewart Hosie, Michael Matheson, Ash Denham, Jeane Freeman, Andrew Wilson, Jackson Carlaw, Peter Murrell, Willie Rennie, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, Monica Lennon, Neil Findlay, Pete Wishart, Philippa Whitford, Tommy Sheppard, Richard Leonard, Michelle Ballantyne"
@ -17071,7 +17047,7 @@ Other candidates available on request.","Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, Sadiq Khan,
"Next Norwegian General Election - Party With The Most Votes",,"Conservatives (H), Labour (AP), Centre Party (SP), Progress Party (FRP), Liberal Party (V), Socialist Left Party (SV), Christian Democratic Party (KRF), Green Party (MDG), Red Party (R)"
"Year of Next Australian Federal Election",,"2021, 2022"
"Australian Federal Election - Winning Party",,"Coalition, Labor Party"
"US Presidential Election 2024 - Winner",,"Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Tucker Carlson, Michelle Obama, Ron DeSantis, Pete Buttigieg, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump Jnr, Dwayne Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Ivanka Trump, Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio, Candace Owens, Tom Cotton, Amy Klobuchar, Gavin Newsom, Dan Crenshaw, Bernie Sanders, Andrew Yang, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Kanye West, Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Jared Kushner, Gretchen Whitmer, Mike DeWine, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Megan Rapinoe, Mark Zuckerberg, Michael Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, Meghan Markle, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Kimberly Guilfoyle"
"US Presidential Election 2024 - Winner",,"Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Tucker Carlson, Michelle Obama, Pete Buttigieg, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump Jnr, Dwayne Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Ivanka Trump, Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Cuomo, Mike Pompeo, Marco Rubio, Candace Owens, Tom Cotton, Amy Klobuchar, Gavin Newsom, Dan Crenshaw, Bernie Sanders, Andrew Yang, Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, Kanye West, Josh Hawley, Tim Scott, Rick Scott, Jared Kushner, Gretchen Whitmer, Mike DeWine, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Megan Rapinoe, Mark Zuckerberg, Michael Bloomberg, Hillary Clinton, Meghan Markle, Jim Jordan, Matt Gaetz, Kimberly Guilfoyle"
"Total existential risk by 2120","Actual estimate: ~17% (~1 in 6)
Ord writes: ""Don’t take these numbers to be completely objective. [...] And don’t take the estimates to be precise. Their purpose is to show the right order of magnitude, rather than a more precise probability.""

Can't render this file because it is too large.

9196
data/metaforecasts.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

803
data/polymarket-questions.json
View File

@ -1,242 +1,22 @@
[
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021",
"title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n\n\n",
"description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0399522190901281473183703149667169",
"probability": "0.2117064115863988157330368666145412",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9600477809098718526816296850332831",
"probability": "0.7882935884136011842669631333854588",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "27",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 35,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 7, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-35000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-7-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": " This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 7, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 35,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 35,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.07465307001144303222259539896004477",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9253469299885569677774046010399552",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "522",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-june-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on June 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.937185702542547745508723154303628",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.062814297457452254491276845696372",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "53",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4654295355935182330616479112119514",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5345704644064817669383520887880486",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "110",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.898486201143934842646828594587153",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.101513798856065157353171405412847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "807",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-1-billion-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-have-been-administered-globally-by-april-26-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.66316561303638583639322299764386",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.33683438696361416360677700235614",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "16",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Bitcoin ($BTC) be above $55k on April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-bitcoin-btc-be-above-55k-on-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the USD price of Bitcoin $BTC will be above $55000 on April 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, according to coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if BTC is trading above $55000 according to Coinmarketcap on the resolution date, and “No“ otherwise. If price data is temporarily unavailable on Coinmarketcap at the time of resolution, coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin will instead be referenced. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9235015831361897357511964892828881",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.07649841686381026424880351071711195",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "3457",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the federal minimum wage be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-9-50-per-hour-or-higher-by-april-1-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if the federal minimum wage will be $9.50 per hour or higher by April 1, 12:00pm EST. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the federal minimum wage in effect for covered non-exempt employees is $9.50 or more per hour at any point prior to the resolution date, and \"No\" otherwise. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Department of Labor's website, https://www.dol.gov/.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0007799905818548978341181015069580178",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.999220009418145102165881898493042",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "188",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will 100 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by April 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-100-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-april-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 100 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, April 1, 2021, 12 PM EST / 1 PM EDT. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 100 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 100 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.02261135370733015122541638960314871",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9773886462926698487745836103968513",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "8474",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on March 31, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-president-of-the-usa-on-march-31-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Donald Trump will be President of the United States on March 31, 2021, 12pm EST. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Donald Trump is the current President of the United States, officially substantiated by official US government sources, like the links provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Donald Trump is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution sources are: 1. https://www.loc.gov/rr/print/list/057_chron.html , 2. https://history.house.gov/Institution/Presidents-Coinciding/Presidents-Coinciding/ and 3. https://www.whitehouse.gov/. \n\nIf any of these 3 sources list Donald Trump officially as the current sitting president on the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"Yes\". In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0003722103355381477775719659336543291",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9996277896644618522224280340663457",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "4416",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1099230898121289621386529149208585",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8900769101878710378613470850791415",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "94",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0643262684347852793581318329432571",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9356737315652147206418681670567429",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "419",
"numforecasts": "34",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -247,226 +27,77 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2084574486646862799550090404443954",
"probability": "0.1556798952930100723990816072040847",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7915425513353137200449909595556046",
"probability": "0.8443201047069899276009183927959153",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "47",
"numforecasts": "72",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count be in the US on May 15?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-be-in-the-us-on-may-15",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on May 15, 2021 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s Covid Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on May 15, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on May 16, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.02570884192511618168598180798571647",
"name": "40,999 or fewer",
"probability": "0.3893819219523332660392126401900704",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9742911580748838183140181920142835",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "95",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1531273744175666186166761496243497",
"name": "41,000-65,999",
"probability": "0.3786476496952500287295906513328242",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8468726255824333813833238503756503",
"name": "66,000-99,999",
"probability": "0.1868055692073516015344164753748345",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "100,000 or more",
"probability": "0.04516485914506510369678023310227084",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "78",
"numforecasts": "98",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match",
"address": "0xB0E171C4e2490b97b3CEbAF36FA4006318A09b25",
"description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0183925492363933636702412378864124",
"probability": "0.08241287527435891459397162776882275",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9816074507636066363297587621135876",
"probability": "0.9175871247256410854060283722311772",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "731",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": "0.4049934414491418985976385396658718",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": "0.4567329434327637514445193511115605",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
"probability": "0.1382736151180943499578421092225677",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "92",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.3200857701022042815449929261271158",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.6799142298977957184550070738728842",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "54",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Matt Gaetz continue to hold Congressional office through June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-matt-gaetz-continue-to-hold-congressional-office-through-june-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Matt Gaetz will hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st Congressional District from the date of the creation of this market through June 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" in the event that Matt Gaetz continues to hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. In the event that Matt Gaetz resigns, is removed from office, or is no longer in office for any reason prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"No\" immediately. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.house.gov/representatives. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7461002333060828063125709223827312",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2538997666939171936874290776172688",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "47",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.8512879891880845638587947660033713",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.1487120108119154361412052339966287",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "319",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.0693152321242313510064873701903833",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9306847678757686489935126298096167",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "102",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @laurenboebert account on April 6, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-laurenboebert-account-on-april-6-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Lauren Boebert’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, April 6, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @laurenboebert, shall exceed 3593 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @laurenboebert, then clicking the verified account labeled “@laurenboebert” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @laurenboebert just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Lauren Boebert, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @mtgreenee will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 30",
"probability": "0.05977087814512342460231132918776212",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30-40",
"probability": "0.1439788098513407830412705763776042",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "41-50",
"probability": "0.3000648938131921379652501864987328",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51-60",
"probability": "0.3073822916839418221307989757808803",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61-70",
"probability": "0.1254828656686028461677836649370425",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71-80",
"probability": "0.03350564206579270952716467730458544",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80",
"probability": "0.02981461877200627656542058991339278",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "208",
"numforecasts": "115",
"stars": 3
},
{
@ -477,18 +108,259 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7107874922024220164632925171348451",
"probability": "0.7236509933639097806015585509693699",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2892125077975779835367074828651549",
"probability": "0.2763490066360902193984414490306301",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "54",
"numforecasts": "115",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "How many more tweets will be on the @laurenboebert account on April 6, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-laurenboebert-account-on-april-6-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the number of tweets that will be posted to Lauren Boebert’s Twitter account prior to the resolution date, April 6, 2021 at 3:00 PM ET. \n\nAt 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @laurenboebert, shall exceed 3593 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @laurenboebert, then clicking the verified account labeled “@laurenboebert” from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @laurenboebert just before 3:00pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets on the resolution date exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the resolution date of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Lauren Boebert, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the resolution source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, suspension, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @laurenboebert will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).",
"options": [
{
"name": "Less than 30",
"probability": "0.03112669674172169975854699207831242",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "30-40",
"probability": "0.2369669578907565780215803691380716",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "41-50",
"probability": "0.4355222425745799237685512394899696",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "51-60",
"probability": "0.2413820930176487064459564076841891",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "61-70",
"probability": "0.02485928026732967511602314196075242",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "71-80",
"probability": "0.01615990278262899873913944428297371",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "More than 80",
"probability": "0.01398282672533441815020240536573119",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "830",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 150 Gwei on April 5?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-150-gwei-on-april-5",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 150 Gwei on April 5, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Avg Gas Price is listed as being below 150 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If Avg Gas Price is 150 Gwei or higher, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 5, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.2228977553704771088996701822450644",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.7771022446295228911003298177549356",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "118",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "How many charges will Derek Chauvin be convicted of?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-charges-will-derek-chauvin-be-convicted-of",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This market is on how many charges the jury will find Derek Chauvin guilty of. Chauvin is charged criminally in Minnesota on three counts, each of which he has pleaded not guilty to. The maximum number of charges that Chauvin can be convicted of is two. This market will resolve to the number of counts Derek Chauvin is convicted on: zero (not guilty on all counts), one (guilty on one count), or two (guilty on two counts). In the event of a \"hung jury\" or mistrial, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket, \"0\". If the trial is delayed, the market resolution will be postponed until the start of the new trial date. In the event of a judgement of acquittal, this market will still resolve to the number of charges Chauvin is convicted of. The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Minnesota Judicial Branch, specifically the page for this specific case (27-CR-20-12646: State vs. Derek Chauvin) available at https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin.",
"options": [
{
"name": "0",
"probability": "0.3717640542832050731028758609269638",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "1",
"probability": "0.3907780961853577695055023696544902",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "2",
"probability": "0.237457849531437157391621769418546",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "126",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9457820520616409899400220766349915",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.05421794793835901005997792336500853",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "424",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump launch a new social media platform by June 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-launch-a-new-social-media-platform-by-june-15-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether former US President Donald Trump will launch a social media platform by June 15, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump launches a social media platform by the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. On the resolution date, it must be possible for an individual in the United States to create an account and post. Creating an account and posting requires that user-generated content is not restricted to responses (ie comments) to another user’s content. Such content generally must be standalone image, text, or video posts. The platform must not be restricted to only a small portion of the general public or subject to a waitlist. If there is a fee or subscription required to join, this market will still resolve to “Yes”. Donald Trump’s involvement must be public and verified via an official channel, and the platform must be substantially backed by or affiliated with Donald Trump--e.g. the platform uses his name explicitly, is heavily marketed as being affiliated with him, or he is an executive for the platform. Partnership with an existing platform such as Twitter or Parler will not be sufficient for this market to resolve to “Yes”. If such a platform is temporarily inaccessible due to maintenance, system overload, or DDOS attack, resolution of this market will be delayed up to 72 hours. If the platform is inaccessible on the resolution date due to a lack of a web-hosting service provider, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1373078541889945773790856755301614",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8626921458110054226209143244698386",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "88",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will the US have fewer than 40,000 new COVID-19 cases on any day before April 16, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-fewer-than-40-000-new-covid-19-cases-on-any-day-before-april-16-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a single day after the creation of this market and prior to the resolution date, April 16, 2021, 8 PM ET, with fewer than 40,000 recorded COVID-19 cases in the United States. This market will resolve to “Yes\" if on any single day prior to the resolution date there are fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases recorded. This market will resolve to “No\" if there is no single day the United States records fewer than 40,000 COVID-19 cases according to the resolution source. The resolution source for this market will be https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases, the CDC's official count of Coronavirus cases. The resolution source will be reviewed once daily at 8 PM ET, and only data as listed on 8 PM ET each day prior to and including the resolution date will be considered. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.4035526375018205811828604689416271",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.5964473624981794188171395310583729",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "102",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.03995898922616585608566171160074021",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9600410107738341439143382883992598",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "119",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be canceled or postponed prior to May 1, 2021, 12:00pm EST. The opening ceremony is currently scheduled to take place on July 23, 2021. If an official statement is published by the International Olympic Committee on https://www.olympic.org/ which announces that the ceremony will take place on a date later than July 23, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes\". If no such announcement is made prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No\". The resolution source for this market will be an official statement published to olympic.org, the official website of the International Olympic Committee. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.06638158251927267137860811718542585",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9336184174807273286213918828145741",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "433",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.1320425754648959457722038710480652",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.8679574245351040542277961289519348",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "82",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1",
"address": "0xDF35eC97FEC070D7c565dF86C1bb9d2f15D6470A",
"description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
],
"options": []
},
{
"title": "Will Uniswap v3 launch before April 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-uniswap-v3-launch-before-april-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Uniswap v3 will launch before April 30th, 2021, 12:00 am ET. “Launch” in this context can be defined as being deployed and usable on the Ethereum mainnet and publicly announced via the official Uniswap Twitter and/or Blog. V3 can be defined as Uniswap v3.0.0 or greater. If Uniswap v3 is officially announced and is deployed on the mainnet of a given L2 scaling solution, with or without some bridging mechanism from Ethereum mainnet, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.01718495616912493410540516360815251",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.9828150438308750658945948363918475",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "750",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office",
@ -497,27 +369,116 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9843173166697513955671473084202553",
"probability": "0.9880576213802719573347331675004054",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.01568268333024860443285269157974465",
"probability": "0.01194237861972804266526683249959458",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "19",
"numforecasts": "25",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on June 30, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-june-30-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on June 30, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.9546381312033776158711755660140642",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.04536186879662238412882443398593583",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "124",
"stars": 3
},
{
"title": "Will 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine have been administered globally by April 26, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-1-billion-doses-of-a-covid-19-vaccine-have-been-administered-globally-by-april-26-2021-1",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 will have been administered globally prior to April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least 1 billion doses of a COVID-19 vaccine are administered globally prior to the resolution date, April 26, 2021, 12 PM ET, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the data published to Our World in Data’s coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations dashboard, available at https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations, specifically the cumulative COVID-19 vaccination doses administered. This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.8742524648547909122488441889403087",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.1257475351452090877511558110596913",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "61",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.5187019365027776529339474649958998",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.4812980634972223470660525350041002",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "401",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends",
"address": "0xa8B8c6cd59ECDe225D62185Cd3cAdE606e51b545",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether there will be a New York Knicks game at Madison Square Garden where more than 20% of the seats are filled by the end of the NBA season, including the playoffs. This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is any New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is 3,963 or higher (3,963 is the lowest number that puts attendance over 20% of the 19,812 seating capacity at MSG for NBA games), before the end of the NBA season. This market will resolve to “No” if there is not a single New York Knicks home game at Madison Square Garden, where official attendance is higher than 3,963. The resolution source for this market will be the official attendance data provided in the NBA gamebooks (https://www.nba.com/stats/gamebooks/). The resolution date for this market will be the day the Knicks are eliminated from this NBA season. Resolution may be delayed in the event of a change or postponement in the NBA’s schedule.\n",
"outcomes": [
"Yes",
"No"
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7353318909948184095280323350815145",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2646681090051815904719676649184855",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"options": []
"numforecasts": "60",
"stars": 4
},
{
"title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021",
"platform": "PolyMarket",
"description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": "0.7200855687515994577853984618365658",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": "0.2799144312484005422146015381634342",
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": "852",
"stars": 4
}
]

1608
data/predictit-questions.json
View File

File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff

348
data/williamhill-questions.json
View File

@ -6,12 +6,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5454545454545454,
"probability": 0.5555555555555556,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4545454545454546,
"probability": 0.4444444444444444,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -24,12 +24,12 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.47619047619047616,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"probability": 0.5238095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -222,317 +222,317 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Rishi Sunak",
"probability": 0.19860338249230053,
"probability": 0.19163679246737464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Keir Starmer",
"probability": 0.17377795968076296,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
"probability": 0.06319198533845927,
"probability": 0.16768219340895282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Gove",
"probability": 0.06319198533845927,
"probability": 0.08384109670447641,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Hunt",
"probability": 0.06097534305780102,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dominic Raab",
"probability": 0.04088893168959128,
"probability": 0.039454633743283014,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Priti Patel",
"probability": 0.033100563748716755,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
"probability": 0.033100563748716755,
"probability": 0.03193946541122911,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sajid Javid",
"probability": 0.02044446584479564,
"probability": 0.03193946541122911,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liz Truss",
"probability": 0.03193946541122911,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matthew Hancock",
"probability": 0.02044446584479564,
"probability": 0.019727316871641507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Tugendhat",
"probability": 0.02044446584479564,
"probability": 0.019727316871641507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "James Cleverly",
"probability": 0.02044446584479564,
"probability": 0.019727316871641507,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg",
"probability": 0.013629643896530428,
"probability": 0.013151544581094337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nigel Farage",
"probability": 0.013629643896530428,
"probability": 0.013151544581094337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Baker",
"probability": 0.013629643896530428,
"probability": 0.013151544581094337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andy Burnham",
"probability": 0.013629643896530428,
"probability": 0.013151544581094337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Lisa Nandy",
"probability": 0.013629643896530428,
"probability": 0.013151544581094337,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kemi Badenoch",
"probability": 0.010374803563030624,
"probability": 0.010010877218444944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Harper",
"probability": 0.010374803563030624,
"probability": 0.010010877218444944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Penny Mordaunt",
"probability": 0.010374803563030624,
"probability": 0.010010877218444944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Barclay",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Yvette Cooper",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bim Afolami",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Anneliese Dodds",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Grant Shapps",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Damian Hinds",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Johnny Mercer",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tobias Ellwood",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Robert Jenrick",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Williamson",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amanda Milling",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ed Davey",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Angela Rayner",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ben Wallace",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Miliband",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gillian Keegan",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Jarvis",
"probability": 0.006882295432901504,
"probability": 0.00664087894688922,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hilary Benn",
"probability": 0.004603389660417562,
"probability": 0.00444191240818418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Caroline Lucas",
"probability": 0.004603389660417562,
"probability": 0.00444191240818418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ed Miliband",
"probability": 0.004603389660417562,
"probability": 0.00444191240818418,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John McDonnell",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Leadsom",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Geoffrey Cox",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rebecca Long-Bailey",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Davis",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bridget Phillipson",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Margaret Beckett",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jess Phillips",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Helen Whately",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Phillip Hammond",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Cameron",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Esther McVey",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kit Malthouse",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ruth Davidson",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Emily Thornberry",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rory Stewart",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Eddie Hughes",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrea Jenkyns",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Harriet Harman",
"probability": 0.0034582678543435418,
"probability": 0.003336959072814981,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Daisy Cooper",
"probability": 0.0027693698753906448,
"probability": 0.0026722261897841083,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jeremy Corbyn",
"probability": 0.0027693698753906448,
"probability": 0.0026722261897841083,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Layla Moran",
"probability": 0.0027693698753906448,
"probability": 0.0026722261897841083,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Morgan",
"probability": 0.001387448779886331,
"probability": 0.0013387799872970282,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -914,87 +914,107 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Sadiq Khan",
"probability": 0.8746575753901864,
"probability": 0.8736088652213292,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Shaun Bailey",
"probability": 0.05300955002364766,
"probability": 0.04326443903953249,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Brian Rose",
"probability": 0.031074563806965872,
"probability": 0.04326443903953249,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Sian Berry",
"probability": 0.008922399508930794,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.004483394778119454,
"probability": 0.004520165272786977,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Luisa Porritt",
"probability": 0.004483394778119454,
"probability": 0.004520165272786977,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
"probability": 0.003590288248613587,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
"probability": 0.003590288248613587,
"name": "Laurence Fox",
"probability": 0.003619733943546543,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kam Balayev",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "David Kurten",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Count Binface",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Richard Hewison",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Piers Corbyn",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Farah London",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Peter Gammons",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nims Obunge",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Max Fosh",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mandu Reid",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Drillminister",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Valerie Brown",
"probability": 0.0017987272463113977,
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Niko Omilana",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Steve Kelleher",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Vanessa Hudson",
"probability": 0.0018134794806989665,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1045,32 +1065,32 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Conservative",
"probability": 0.5625094928679308,
"probability": 0.5894327152386443,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Labour",
"probability": 0.4166736984206895,
"probability": 0.39000059354135863,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Reform UK",
"probability": 0.00620871404931491,
"probability": 0.006134115295766403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Liberal Democrat",
"probability": 0.00620871404931491,
"probability": 0.006134115295766403,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "UKIP",
"probability": 0.004664257818142047,
"probability": 0.004608215968461327,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Greens",
"probability": 0.0037351227946077746,
"probability": 0.0036902446600028953,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
@ -1596,227 +1616,227 @@
"options": [
{
"name": "Kamala Harris",
"probability": 0.155643759309835,
"probability": 0.15466343538854624,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Joe Biden",
"probability": 0.1400793833788515,
"probability": 0.13919709184969162,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump",
"probability": 0.08754961461178219,
"probability": 0.08699818240605726,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pence",
"probability": 0.06367244699038704,
"probability": 0.06327140538622346,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Nikki Haley",
"probability": 0.05387668591494289,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.026938342957471446,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
"probability": 0.026938342957471446,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"probability": 0.053537343019112164,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ron DeSantis",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"probability": 0.026768671509556082,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez",
"probability": 0.026768671509556082,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tucker Carlson",
"probability": 0.026768671509556082,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michelle Obama",
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Pete Buttigieg",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ted Cruz",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Donald Trump Jnr",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dwayne Johnson",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Beto O'Rourke",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Ivanka Trump",
"probability": 0.02059990932041934,
"probability": 0.02047016056613112,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Elizabeth Warren",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Cuomo",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike Pompeo",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Marco Rubio",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Candace Owens",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tom Cotton",
"probability": 0.013733272880279559,
"probability": 0.01364677371075408,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Amy Klobuchar",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gavin Newsom",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Dan Crenshaw",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Bernie Sanders",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Andrew Yang",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mitt Romney",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Paul Ryan",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kanye West",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Josh Hawley",
"probability": 0.010453685326779963,
"probability": 0.010387842675350121,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Scott",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Rick Scott",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jared Kushner",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Gretchen Whitmer",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mike DeWine",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "John Hickenlooper",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Tim Kaine",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Megan Rapinoe",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Mark Zuckerberg",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Michael Bloomberg",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Hillary Clinton",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Meghan Markle",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Jim Jordan",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Matt Gaetz",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "Kimberly Guilfoyle",
"probability": 0.006934622939547105,
"probability": 0.006890945141073843,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],

7
src/index.js
View File

@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ let writefile = (data, set, suffix, filetype = ".csv") => {
fs.writeFileSync(locationData + set + suffix + filetype, data)
}
let coverttocsvandmerge = () => {
let coverttocsvandmerge = async () => {
let merged = []
for(let set of sets){
let json = getJSON(set)
@ -91,14 +91,15 @@ Choose one option, wisely: #`)
let executeoption = async (option) => {
option = Number(option)
console.log(functionNames[option])
//console.log(functionNames[option])
if(option < 0){
console.log("Error, ${option} < 0")
}else if(option < functions.length){
functions[option]()
} else if(option == functions.length){
for(let fun of functions){
fun()
console.log(fun.name)
await fun()
}
}
}