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metaforecast/data/astralcodexten-questions.json

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tweak: Found some bugs, added some convenience options
2021-12-05 12:30:06 +00:00
[
{
"title": "Data processing errors are between 5% and 100% as important and methodological problems when explaining bad studies",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3c56c70a-c78c-43c6-84ef-6cbd173cc748",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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{
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},
{
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.173Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "Fraud is between >1% and 5% as important as methodological problems when explaining bad studies",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/81343104-09c2-4e18-b751-db0d2fccd35a",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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{
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},
{
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}
],
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}
},
{
"title": "Parasitic worms are a significant confounder in some ivermectin studies, such that they made them get a positive result even when honest and methodologically sound",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/375d3ad1-32fd-4449-bc6d-badc31eba659",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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{
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{
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],
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}
},
{
"title": "Ivermectin doesn’t reduce mortality in COVID a significant amount (let’s say d > 0.3) in the absence of comorbid parasites: 85-90% confidence",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/d8a19d54-97d3-4cec-ae37-facf1e004ae1",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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{
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{
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],
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}
},
{
"title": "I post my scores on these predictions before 3/1/22",
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"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
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{
"title": "I double my current amount of money ($1000) on PredictIt",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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{
"title": "I have a queue of fewer than ten extra posts",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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{
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{
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"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "I finish and post the CO2 essay I'm working on",
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{
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{
"title": "I finish and post the climate change essay I'm working on",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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{
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"qualityindicators": {
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{
"title": "I finish and post the culture wars essay I'm working on",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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{
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"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "By end of year, some other post beats NYT commentary for my most popular post",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.12,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "I run a normal ACX survey (must start, but not necessarily finish, before end of year)",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.89,
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},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.10999999999999999,
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "I run an ACX reader survey",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/706ae53c-2d87-4dac-8011-18e1a2605ed8",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.565,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "[redacted] wins the book review contest",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/63f7a4a1-f6ca-4174-bcf5-08b35759a8d9",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
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{
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "I've written at least five chapters of some non-Unsong book I hope to publish",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/6a054535-cbe5-4656-86b8-6370e71b403b",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Unsong is published",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/70f977b5-17b7-4635-a3a3-597a95b184f0",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.105,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.895,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "I've started and am at least 25% of the way through the formal editing process for Unsong",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/c9471266-1b50-4c94-aaa2-ddf4dc6b2fc8",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.265,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.735,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "I've read and reviewed at least two more dictator books",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ae3fe71f-7e98-4e55-8009-85d0525dbf90",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.485,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.515,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "I've read and reviewed Scout Mindset",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/05b4803f-6645-48f3-9786-d9ce38eabfc6",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.68,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31999999999999995,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
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}
},
{
"title": "I've read and reviewed Nixonland",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/cfaf1565-5384-4d7b-9832-01bdeffec820",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.715,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.28500000000000003,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
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}
},
{
"title": "I've read and reviewed How Asia Works",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3920f55c-13b3-403c-a21d-4fa1d0410ae3",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.91,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.08999999999999997,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
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}
},
{
"title": "I subscribe to at least 5 new Substacks (so total of 8)",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/67704cd7-baf8-4328-826c-a333e812eca1",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.195,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8049999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "There is another article primarily about SSC/ACX/me in a major news source",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/240c60fd-10ea-40b2-9a78-67b3f1c62582",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.15,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.85,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/15ddf814-1241-4ad2-b38d-49fde3efc807",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/1fe2c460-7869-46f1-b102-d3f9333db2b2",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/39b844b5-62a1-48e3-b5ae-370eb1bdf6bb",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "ACX is earning more money than it is right now",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/55a247e6-3d77-4315-a2a1-3962304563b7",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.685,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.31499999999999995,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
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}
},
{
"title": "I have changed my pricing scheme",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/b8d1c023-e016-4410-9948-f671cfee4ecf",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.835,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
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}
},
{
"title": "I have switched medical records systems",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/3ea13b6e-7513-4c99-bdbf-8b94d00919f2",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.165,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.835,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/c278967e-e0d1-411c-885f-ed2f117b8d47",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/e998d61f-b3aa-4a52-a293-e28a9a3ddf89",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 2,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/caf5a371-0be0-4c22-8e92-bfc252607e66",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/58d4018a-9e2a-41d0-b1fc-a5657d6adfe6",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
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},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
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},
{
"title": "I've written at least ten more Lorien writeups (so total at least 27)",
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"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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{
"name": "No",
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},
{
"title": "Lorien has 200+ patients",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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{
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},
{
"title": "Lorien has 150+ patients",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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{
"name": "No",
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},
{
"title": "Lorien has 100+ patients",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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{
"name": "No",
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],
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},
{
"title": "I make/retweet at least 25 tweets between now and 2022",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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{
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},
{
"title": "The Twitter account I check most frequently isn't one of the five I check frequently now",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.17,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
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},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
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"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
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},
{
"title": "I do at least six new biohacking experiments in the next eight months",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.365,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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],
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}
},
{
"title": "I take some substance I haven't discovered yet at least 5 times in Q4 2021 (testing exempted)",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.255,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.745,
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],
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}
},
{
"title": "I take oroxylum at least 5 times in Q4 2021",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.395,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "I meditate at least 15 days in Q4 2021",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.565,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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},
{
"title": "I continue my current exercise routine (and get through an entire cycle of it) in Q4 2021",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.65,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
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"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "I spend at least a month living somewhere other than the Bay",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.465,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "I go on at least one international trip",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.595,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "I'm playing in a D&D campaign",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.695,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "I can hear / get annoyed by neighbor TV noise",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/c178169b-fea9-47ee-bb9b-e78a06f658f4",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.355,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "I live in the top bedroom",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/03778d46-31d5-45b0-b4ee-b2c9bed533c7",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.58,
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},
{
"name": "No",
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},
{
"title": "I live in the new house",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
"name": "Yes",
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},
{
"name": "No",
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"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "There are no appraisal-related complications to the new house purchase",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/4ef5ae83-579e-492f-bb42-1cdff2f388e0",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.555,
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},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.44499999999999995,
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9cee552f-fa3c-4944-bd01-8286dbce7175",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.05,
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},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.95,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a4ed2c7b-ea9b-4de0-a5e7-bbcbd9c859f2",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/f6a7e9c9-7b9f-49de-a004-bacb188cc63b",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.1,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ea103b92-3f90-491b-92e9-a6a24a1c8ff7",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8,
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/9026b06f-49d6-49b1-aa0a-29437391b981",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
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{
"name": "No",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "At least seven days my house is orange or worse on PurpleAir.com because of fires",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/847c55a7-9429-4d3d-b7c8-f88fb239fa93",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
"numforecasts": 3,
"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/7482f2d0-10d0-4a14-bd8f-854e5c938d34",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/fd7a7856-7e51-4211-8fe6-86d174cea738",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/23d0df70-5d43-40ef-9e07-79fe8b1bf4cb",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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"stars": 3
}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a55110b9-6e5b-4e34-8bce-75e0d088dc1f",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.19999999999999996,
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ec51b772-24cc-4b68-b425-73bcaa2cf98a",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
{
"title": "[redacted]",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/545b5c99-99ae-46b8-8736-70a6853aebdb",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "No",
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}
],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.174Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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},
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{
"title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict",
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],
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}
},
{
"title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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],
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}
},
{
"title": "Major flare-up (significantly worse than anything in past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine war",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/109b7b87-543d-4df7-8137-f58e2aaea0e7",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
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}
},
{
"title": "Tokyo Olympics happen on schedule",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Trump is allowed back on Twitter",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/6e62aaf4-c4c9-4b21-a4c1-23b2698ea30f",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
"qualityindicators": {
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}
},
{
"title": "Significant capital gains tax hike (above 30% for highest bracket)",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/ef192cb7-9d16-496a-99ca-acac2769b896",
"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
"description": "...by the end of 2021",
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{
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{
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],
"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
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}
},
{
"title": "At least $250 million in damage from BLM protests this year",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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],
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}
},
{
"title": "Newsom recalled as CA governor",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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},
{
"title": "Yang is New York mayor",
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"platform": "AstralCodexTen",
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},
{
"title": "Court packing is clearly going to happen (new justices don't have to be appointed by end of year)",
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{
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},
{
"title": "Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than 50%",
"url": "https://www.foretold.io/c/6eebf79b-4b6f-487b-a6a5-748d82524637/m/a3ea3584-59b9-44e9-a936-be8065138a17",
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{
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"timestamp": "2021-12-05T11:10:39.175Z",
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}
}
]
Reference in New Issue Copy Permalink