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metaforecast/data/elicit-questions.json

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Initial commit
2021-01-12 12:43:41 +00:00
[
{
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"title": "Will there be more than 50 prediction questions embedded in LessWrong posts and comments this month?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%2050%20prediction%20questions%20embedded%20in%20LessWrong%20posts%20and%20comments%20this%20month?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5640462427745665,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4359537572254335,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 346,
"numforecasters": 142,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will more than 50 people predict on this post?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20more%20than%2050%20people%20predict%20on%20this%20post?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.8202597402597402,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.17974025974025976,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 231,
"numforecasters": 123,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.36962264150943397,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6303773584905661,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 159,
"numforecasters": 103,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will AGI cause an existential catastrophe without additional intervention from the existing AI Alignment research community?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20without%20additional%20intervention%20from%20the%20existing%20AI%20Alignment%20research%20community?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5289130434782608,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.47108695652173915,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 138,
"numforecasters": 96,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will there be an arms race dynamic in the lead-up to AGI?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20arms%20race%20dynamic%20in%20the%20lead-up%20to%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.757280701754386,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.242719298245614,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 114,
"numforecasters": 92,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "The new English Strain is at least 50% more infectious than the currently dominant American strain of Covid-19",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20new%20English%20Strain%20is%20at%20least%2050%%20more%20infectious%20than%20the%20currently%20dominant%20American%20strain%20of%20Covid-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6325352112676056,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 213,
"numforecasters": 91,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will a single AGI or AGI project achieve a decisive strategic advantage?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20single%20AGI%20or%20AGI%20project%20achieve%20a%20decisive%20strategic%20advantage?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6183620689655173,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 116,
"numforecasters": 87,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "How vivid is your visual imagination?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20visual%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5068067226890757,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4931932773109243,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 119,
"numforecasters": 77,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will we get AGI from deep learning with small variations, without more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%20deep%20learning%20with%20small%20variations,%20without%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.335,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.665,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 110,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 77,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will > 50% of AGI researchers agree with safety concerns by 2030?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20>%2050%%20of%20AGI%20researchers%20agree%20with%20safety%20concerns%20by%202030?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4249074074074074,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5750925925925926,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 108,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 77,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will we experience an existential catastrophe before we build AGI?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20we%20build%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.11789999999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.8821,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 100,
"numforecasters": 75,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "How vivid is your sound imagination?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20sound%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6116981132075472,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.3883018867924528,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 106,
"numforecasters": 74,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will there be another AI Winter (a period commonly referred to as such) before we develop AGI?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20another%20AI%20Winter%20(a%20period%20commonly%20referred%20to%20as%20such)%20before%20we%20develop%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.28802083333333334,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7119791666666666,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 96,
"numforecasters": 73,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will we get AGI from 1-3 more insights on a similar level to deep learning?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20get%20AGI%20from%201-3%20more%20insights%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4311607142857143,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5688392857142857,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 112,
"numforecasters": 71,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20an%20additional%20distinct%20large%20wave%20of%20Covid-19%20infections%20in%20the%20United%20States%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5817721518987341,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4182278481012659,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 158,
"numforecasters": 70,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "How vivid is your taste imagination?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20taste%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25726190476190475,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7427380952380953,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 84,
"numforecasters": 69,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "How vivid is your smell imagination?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20smell%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.25414634146341464,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7458536585365854,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 82,
"numforecasters": 68,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will we need > 3 breakthroughs on a similar level to deep learning to get AGI?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20need%20>%203%20breakthroughs%20on%20a%20similar%20level%20to%20deep%20learning%20to%20get%20AGI?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.2538095238095238,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7461904761904762,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 84,
"numforecasters": 67,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Do you have a type of Synaesthesia?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20a%20type%20of%20Synaesthesia?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1975862068965517,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8024137931034483,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 87,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 66,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "How frequently do you think in words?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20frequently%20do%20you%20think%20in%20words?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7812790697674419,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.21872093023255812,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 86,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 66,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Do you have an internal monologue?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Do%20you%20have%20an%20internal%20monologue?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8227500000000001,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.1772499999999999,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 80,
"numforecasters": 63,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "How good is your memory?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20good%20is%20your%20memory?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5265384615384615,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.4734615384615385,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 78,
"numforecasters": 62,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "How vivid is your touch imagination?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20vivid%20is%20your%20touch%20imagination?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3612658227848101,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6387341772151899,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 79,
"numforecasters": 62,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "How much control do you have over your mind?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=How%20much%20control%20do%20you%20have%20over%20your%20mind?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.45592105263157895,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5440789473684211,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 76,
"numforecasters": 61,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.42764705882352944,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5723529411764705,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 85,
"numforecasters": 57,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Trump will win a second term",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20win%20a%20second%20term&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.462027027027027,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.537972972972973,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 74,
"numforecasters": 54,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because the increase in AI capabilities from scaling plateaus?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20the%20increase%20in%20AI%20capabilities%20from%20scaling%20plateaus?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3156060606060606,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6843939393939393,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 66,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 52,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Before reaching AGI, will we hit a point where we can no longer improve AI capabilities by scaling because we are unable to continue scaling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20reaching%20AGI,%20will%20we%20hit%20a%20point%20where%20we%20can%20no%20longer%20improve%20AI%20capabilities%20by%20scaling%20because%20we%20are%20unable%20to%20continue%20scaling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.24506666666666668,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7549333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 75,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 52,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will the post \"Embedded Interactive Predictions on LessWrong\" get more than 80 karma by December 1st?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20the%20post%20\"Embedded%20Interactive%20Predictions%20on%20LessWrong\"%20get%20more%20than%2080%20karma%20by%20December%201st?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.8951807228915662,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.10481927710843375,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 83,
"numforecasters": 45,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Having a button/prompt for Elicit on LW would increase usage by at least 5x",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Having%20a%20button/prompt%20for%20Elicit%20on%20LW%20would%20increase%20usage%20by%20at%20least%205x&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.6021951219512195,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.3978048780487805,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 41,
"numforecasters": 37,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects (i.e. besides stuffy nose for a day) for >50% of people who try it",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20(i.e.%20besides%20stuffy%20nose%20for%20a%20day)%20for%20>50%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.04516666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9548333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 60,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 35,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025%20bitcoin%20will%20no%20longer%20be%20the%20highest%20traded%20cryptocurrency.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5548648648648649,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.44513513513513514,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 37,
"numforecasters": 35,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Singularity%20will%20not%20occur%20by%20the%20year%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.687142857142857,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.31285714285714294,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 42,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 34,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP doubles?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6111904761904762,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.3888095238095238,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 42,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 33,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202025,%20most%20of%20Russia%20will%20become%20part%20of%20the%20United%20States,%20or%20the%20reverse,%20or%20they%20will%20in%20some%20other%20manner%20become%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state,%20or%20part%20of%20the%20same%20sovereign%20state&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.007941176470588234,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9920588235294118,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 34,
"numforecasters": 32,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "The radvac vaccine will have serious side effects for >1% of people who try it ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20will%20have%20serious%20side%20effects%20for%20>1%%20of%20people%20who%20try%20it%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2122033898305085,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7877966101694915,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 59,
"numforecasters": 31,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "The Pope will be assassinated.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Pope%20will%20be%20assassinated.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.0303125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.9696875,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 32,
"numforecasters": 30,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will there be a 4 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles before the first 1 year interval in which world GDP growth doubles?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20a%204%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles%20before%20the%20first%201%20year%20interval%20in%20which%20world%20GDP%20growth%20doubles?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.47382978723404257,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5261702127659574,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 47,
"numforecasters": 28,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"There will only be three languages in the world - English, Spanish and Mandarin\" --Bill Walker, BBC",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"There%20will%20only%20be%20three%20languages%20in%20the%20world%20-%20English,%20Spanish%20and%20Mandarin\"%20--Bill%20Walker,%20BBC&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.02909090909090909,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9709090909090909,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 33,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 29,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP before a 1 year period of doubling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.36911764705882355,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6308823529411764,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 34,
"numforecasters": 29,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook%20will%20still%20survive%20by%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.83,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.17000000000000004,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 40,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 29,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20real%20identity%20of%20Nakamoto%20Satoshi%20will%20be%20publicly%20known%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.38967741935483874,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6103225806451613,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 31,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 29,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "No military draft in the United States before 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20military%20draft%20in%20the%20United%20States%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9027272727272727,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.09727272727272729,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 33,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Will LessWrong add a button to embed interactive predictions before 2021-07-01?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20LessWrong%20add%20a%20button%20to%20embed%20interactive%20predictions%20before%202021-07-01?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.5493617021276596,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.45063829787234044,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 47,
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.47,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.53,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 34,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Flying%20cars%20will%20become%20the%20dominant%20form%20of%20transportation%20in%20at%20least%20one%20major%20world%20city%20by%202035.%20%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.08806451612903227,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9119354838709677,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 31,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20nuclear%20weapon%20will%20be%20used%20for%20the%20remainder%20of%20this%20decade.%20(Does%20not%20count%20tests)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.82125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.17874999999999996,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 32,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 28,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The radvac vaccine works. That is, it immunizes against COVID, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunizes%20against%20COVID,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2751282051282051,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7248717948717949,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 39,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 27,
"stars": 1
},
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organised%20religions%20will%20no%20longer%20exist%20in%20any%20meaningful%20way%20and%20religion%20will%20no%20longer%20have%20any%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.08678571428571429,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9132142857142858,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 28,
"numforecasters": 27,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
{
"title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 4 year period of doubling of world GDP growth before a 1 year period of doubling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20before%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
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],
"numforecasts": 42,
"numforecasters": 26,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Edward%20Snowden%20will%20be%20U.S.%20President%20before%202034&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.002307692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.9976923076923077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 26,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "California will secede from the United States before 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=California%20will%20secede%20from%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.006764705882352942,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9932352941176471,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 34,
"numforecasters": 26,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Trump wins Nobel",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20Nobel&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.10552631578947368,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8944736842105263,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 38,
"numforecasters": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Bitcoin%20was%20an%20official%20NSA%20or%20CIA%20project.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.018846153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.9811538461538462,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 26,
"numforecasters": 25,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will AGI cause existential catastrophe conditional on there being a 1 year period of doubling of world GDP growth without there first being a 4 year period of doubling?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20AGI%20cause%20existential%20catastrophe%20conditional%20on%20there%20being%20a%201%20year%20period%20of%20doubling%20of%20world%20GDP%20growth%20without%20there%20first%20being%20a%204%20year%20period%20of%20doubling?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4684375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5315624999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 32,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 24,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "...be an environmental disaster.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...be%20an%20environmental%20disaster.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2637037037037037,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7362962962962962,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 27,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 24,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "50% chance of AI by 2028 --Shane Legg",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202028%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2439285714285714,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7560714285714286,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 28,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 23,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "For most of history, a human attempting to use reasoning to do things like cooking, crafting, or planning (instead of using inherited cultural heuristics, like omens or folk wisdom), would have been substantially worse off, and faced a major increase in their risk of death (without a commensurate increase in life quality).",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20most%20of%20history,%20a%20human%20attempting%20to%20use%20reasoning%20to%20do%20things%20like%20cooking,%20crafting,%20or%20planning%20(instead%20of%20using%20inherited%20cultural%20heuristics,%20like%20omens%20or%20folk%20wisdom),%20would%20have%20been%20substantially%20worse%20off,%20and%20faced%20a%20major%20increase%20in%20their%20risk%20of%20death%20(without%20a%20commensurate%20increase%20in%20life%20quality).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.5855882352941176,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.41441176470588237,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 34,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"I%20predict%20that%20by%202020,%20China%20will%20ban%20foreign%20men%20from%20entering%20China,%20except%20for%20special%20cases.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.09692307692307692,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9030769230769231,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "The Singularity will occur by 2050.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Singularity%20will%20occur%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.35119999999999996,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6488,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 25,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Queen%20Elizabeth%20II%20will%20abdicate%20before%20her%20death.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.07461538461538461,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9253846153846154,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 23,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Polyamory%20will%20have%20legal%20status%20in%20the%20USA%20similar%20to%202013's%20gay%20marriage%20by%202035.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.19347826086956524,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8065217391304348,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 23,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 22,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Does Pareto frontier trick allow people to circumvent the Generalized Efficient Market hypothesis? That is, take people in the 98th percentile of intelligence. Are there a few separate fields such that they could become experts in each, with less than 10 years of total time investment... and then have a realistic shot at a big money/status windfall, with relatively little *marginal* effort.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Does%20Pareto%20frontier%20trick%20allow%20people%20to%20circumvent%20the%20Generalized%20Efficient%20Market%20hypothesis?%20That%20is,%20take%20people%20in%20the%2098th%20percentile%20of%20intelligence.%20Are%20there%20a%20few%20separate%20fields%20such%20that%20they%20could%20become%20experts%20in%20each,%20with%20less%20than%2010%20years%20of%20total%20time%20investment...%20and%20then%20have%20a%20realistic%20shot%20at%20a%20big%20money/status%20windfall,%20with%20relatively%20little%20*marginal*%20effort.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6226923076923077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.37730769230769234,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will there be an \"Inverse AlphaFold\" by end of 2025?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20there%20be%20an%20\"Inverse%20AlphaFold\"%20by%20end%20of%202025?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.33909090909090905,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6609090909090909,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 33,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20Eliezer%20Yudkowsky%20will%20have%20given%20up%20building%20friendly%20AI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9333333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 24,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Computer%20Go%20running%20on%20commodity%20hardware%20(<$2k)%20to%20reach%20world%20champion%20level%20(>=9%20dan)%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8411111111111111,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.15888888888888886,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 27,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today - 5/31/2023 - with this individual prediction still accessible.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=PredictionBook.com%20will%20be%20up%20and%20running%2010%20years%20from%20today%20-%205/31/2023%20-%20with%20this%20individual%20prediction%20still%20accessible.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6888,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.31120000000000003,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 25,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 22,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "TurnTrout will use the Elicit embedding on LessWrong for a non-prediction question by 28-11-2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=TurnTrout%20will%20use%20the%20Elicit%20embedding%20on%20LessWrong%20for%20a%20non-prediction%20question%20by%2028-11-2020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5815384615384616,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.41846153846153844,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 39,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to succeed at social manuevering and climbing dominance hierarchies.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machiavellian%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20succeed%20at%20social%20manuevering%20and%20climbing%20dominance%20hierarchies.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6084375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.39156250000000004,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 32,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Most%20babies%20born%20in%202022%20do%20not%20have%20Zika%20virus.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.994090909090909,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.005909090909090975,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 22,
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "...substantially improve current housing shortages and rent prices by 2035. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...substantially%20improve%20current%20housing%20shortages%20and%20rent%20prices%20by%202035.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7019047619047619,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2980952380952381,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The modern Scientific Revolution occurred in Europe between the 16th and 18th Centuries. Why did it not happen in China? Historian Toby Huff claims the reason is that China was unable to produce modern science primarily because a lack of the requisite intellectual freedom. Was he basically correct?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20modern%20Scientific%20Revolution%20occurred%20in%20Europe%20between%20the%2016th%20and%2018th%20Centuries.%20Why%20did%20it%20not%20happen%20in%20China?%20Historian%20Toby%20Huff%20claims%20the%20reason%20is%20that%20China%20was%20unable%20to%20produce%20modern%20science%20primarily%20because%20a%20lack%20of%20the%20requisite%20intellectual%20freedom.%20Was%20he%20basically%20correct?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3745833333333334,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6254166666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 24,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202070%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20150%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2636,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7363999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 25,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Background knowledge and motivation levels being equal, humans will learn how to perform new tasks at roughly equal rates.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Background%20knowledge%20and%20motivation%20levels%20being%20equal,%20humans%20will%20learn%20how%20to%20perform%20new%20tasks%20at%20roughly%20equal%20rates.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.20482758620689656,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7951724137931034,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 29,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 21,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Homo%20sapiens%20will%20be%20near%20or%20fully%20extinct%20by%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.21636363636363637,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7836363636363637,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 22,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Magick%20qua%20magick%20works%20AND%20hinges%20on%20the%20intersection%20between%20quantum%20physics%20and%20decision%20theory.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.04739130434782608,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9526086956521739,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 23,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Another version: roughly, everything that top-humans can learn, most humans can too if they actually tried. That is, there is psychological unity of humankind in what we can learn, but not necessarily what we have learned. By contrast, a mouse really couldn't learn chess, even if they tried. And in turn, no human can learn to play 90-dimensional chess, unlike the hypothetical superintelligences that can.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Another%20version:%20roughly,%20everything%20that%20top-humans%20can%20learn,%20most%20humans%20can%20too%20if%20they%20actually%20tried.%20That%20is,%20there is psychological%20unity%20of%20humankind%20in%20what%20we can%20learn,%20but%20not%20necessarily%20what%20we have%20learned. By%20contrast,%20a%20mouse%20really%20couldn't%20learn%20chess,%20even%20if%20they%20tried.%20And%20in%20turn,%20no%20human%20can%20learn%20to%20play%2090-dimensional%20chess,%20unlike%20the%20hypothetical%20superintelligences%20that%20can.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2782857142857143,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7217142857142858,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 35,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Cultural Intelligence Hypothesis: humans evolved big brains in order to be able to maintain [complicated, detailed, arbitrary-seeming cultural knowledge like 20+ step Inuit seal hunting techniques]. Everything that separates us from the apes is part of an evolutionary package designed to help us maintain this kind of culture, exploit this kind of culture, or adjust to the new abilities that this kind of culture gave us. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Cultural%20Intelligence%20Hypothesis:%20humans%20evolved%20big%20brains%20in%20order%20to%20be%20able%20to%20maintain%20[complicated,%20detailed,%20arbitrary-seeming%20cultural%20knowledge%20like%2020+%20step%20Inuit%20seal%20hunting%20techniques].%20Everything%20that%20separates%20us%20from%20the%20apes%20is%20part%20of%20an%20evolutionary%20package%20designed%20to%20help%20us%20maintain%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20exploit%20this%20kind%20of%20culture,%20or%20adjust%20to%20the%20new%20abilities%20that%20this%20kind%20of%20culture%20gave%20us.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.34127659574468083,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6587234042553192,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 47,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202020%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.11681818181818182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8831818181818182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 22,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Chess%20will%20be%20solved%20within%2010%20years,%20and%20the%20end%20result%20will%20be%20a%20draw%20for%20Black.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.15333333333333335,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8466666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Google will survive for 15 more years",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20will%20survive%20for%2015%20more%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8838095238095238,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.11619047619047618,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20and%20Japan%20will%20engage%20in%20armed%20conflict%20with%20each%20other%20resulting%20in%20>%201,000%20deaths%20before%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
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"type": "PROBABILITY"
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{
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"probability": 0.9254545454545454,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
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],
"numforecasts": 22,
"numforecasters": 20,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Conditional on the AI community learning of pre-AGI catastrophic deceptive misalignment, will the ($ spent on AI alignment research)/($ spent on AI research) ratio increase by more than 50% over the two years following the catastrophe?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Conditional%20on%20the%20AI%20community%20learning%20of%20pre-AGI%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment,%20will%20the%20($%20spent%20on%20AI%20alignment%20research)/($%20spent%20on%20AI%20research)%20ratio%20increase%20by%20more%20than%2050%%20over%20the%20two%20years%20following%20the%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.39685714285714285,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6031428571428572,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 35,
"numforecasters": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "...significantly worsen traffic in San Francisco.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...significantly%20worsen%20traffic%20in%20San%20Francisco.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.484,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.516,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "...create buildings where the expected yearly damage from earthquakes (both in terms of reduced quality of life and property destroyed) is >1.5x that of nearby buildings on old land.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...create%20buildings%20where%20the%20expected%20yearly%20damage%20from%20earthquakes%20(both%20in%20terms%20of%20reduced%20quality%20of%20life%20and%20property%20destroyed)%20is%20>1.5x%20that%20of%20nearby%20buildings%20on%20old%20land.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3638095238095238,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6361904761904762,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.13826086956521738,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8617391304347826,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 23,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Overall, in 2019, biosecurity in the context of catastrophic risks had been underfunded and underdiscussed.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Overall,%20in%202019,%20biosecurity%20in%20the%20context%20of%20catastrophic%20risks%20had%20been%20underfunded%20and%20underdiscussed.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8313636363636364,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.16863636363636358,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 22,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "...cause a water shortage such that, in 2030, residents of the Bay Area would spend on average 100% more on water, after adjusting for inflation, compared to 2020. (In 2020 the average American spends around $200/year on water)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...cause%20a%20water%20shortage%20such%20that,%20in%202030,%20residents%20of%20the%20Bay%20Area%20would%20spend%20on%20average%20100%%20more%20on%20water,%20after%20adjusting%20for%20inflation,%20compared%20to%202020.%20(In%202020%20the%20average%20American%20spends%20around%20$200/year%20on%20water)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.1705,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.8295,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "...all-things-considered, be good for the world.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=...all-things-considered,%20be%20good%20for%20the%20world.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.8088888888888889,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.19111111111111112,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 27,
"numforecasters": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "United States will invade Australia and take over",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=United%20States%20will%20invade%20Australia%20and%20take%20over&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "For a given person who administers radvac using the dosage in the paper and 2 booster shots, how likely are they to be immunised against COVID?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=For%20a%20given%20person%20who%20administers%20radvac%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20and%202%20booster%20shots,%20how%20likely%20are%20they%20to%20be%20immunised%20against%20COVID?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2872,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7128,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 25,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Before AGI, will we learn of an example of catastrophic deceptive misalignment?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20AGI,%20will%20we%20learn%20of%20an%20example%20of%20catastrophic%20deceptive%20misalignment?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5694285714285714,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4305714285714286,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 35,
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Contrary%20to%20my%20left%20leanings,%20Man%20Made%20Global%20Warming%20will%20be%20proved%20incorrect%20by%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.0695,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9305,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20revived%20from%20cryonic%20suspension%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8675,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.13249999999999995,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 24,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "90% chance of AI by 2050 --Shane Legg",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=90%%20chance%20of%20AI%20by%202050%20--Shane%20Legg&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.4704761904761905,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.5295238095238095,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson:%20In%202032,%20less%20than%2050%%20of%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20completely%20autonomous.%20(to%20be%20assessed%20by%20asking%20an%20unbiased%20expert%20if%20the%20answer%20is%20not%20obvious)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.542,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.45799999999999996,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20exactly%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7243478260869566,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2756521739130434,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 23,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012-2020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.7484999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.25150000000000006,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 20,
"numforecasters": 19,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK --Charlie Stross",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Brexit%20will%20cause%20hundreds%20of%20thousands%20of%20deaths%20from%20mass%20starvation%20in%20the%20UK%20--Charlie%20Stross&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.02210526315789474,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9778947368421053,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
"numforecasters": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The radvac vaccine works in a limited fashion. That is, it immunises against COVID infection via the noise only, in >50% of people, using the dosage in the paper with 2 booster shots ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20works%20in%20a%20limited%20fashion.%20That%20is,%20it%20immunises%20against%20COVID%20infection%20via%20the%20noise%20only,%20in%20>50%%20of%20people,%20using%20the%20dosage%20in%20the%20paper%20with%202%20booster%20shots%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.292962962962963,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.707037037037037,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 27,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Will First Contact happen in the form of a message (e.g. radio waves), rather than by physical visitors?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20First%20Contact%20happen%20in%20the%20form%20of%20a%20message%20(e.g.%20radio%20waves),%20rather%20than%20by%20physical%20visitors?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.648,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.352,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 40,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "What percentage of people experience a \"Clogged drainpipe\" effect in idea generation? (That is, they'd agree that they recognised the feeling as described in the post, after attempting a babble challenge)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20percentage%20of%20people%20experience%20a%20\"Clogged%20drainpipe\"%20effect%20in%20idea%20generation?%20(That%20is,%20they'd%20agree%20that%20they%20recognised%20the%20feeling%20as%20described%20in%20the%20post,%20after%20attempting%20a%20babble%20challenge)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6434000000000001,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3565999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 50,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "We will make First Contact before we will have AGI.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20make%20First%20Contact%20before%20we%20will%20have%20AGI.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.12047619047619047,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8795238095238095,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20eventually%20signs%20an%20executive%20order%20forcing%20everyone%20to%20kneel%20in%20his%20presence&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.03318181818181818,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9668181818181818,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 22,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“No%20human%20will%20set%20his%20or%20her%20foot%20on%20Mars%20and%20return%20safely%20to%20earth%20before%202050.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4026923076923077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5973076923076923,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20driverless%20taxis%20available%20for%20use%20by%20the%20public%20in%20at%20least%20one%20US%20city%20in%202023.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6427777777777777,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.35722222222222233,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 18,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Between%202016-2116,%20at%20least%201%20American%20President%20will%20be%20neither%20Democratic%20or%20Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5177777777777778,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4822222222222222,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
"numforecasters": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20percentage%20of%20people%20professing%20to%20be%20both%20athiest%20and%20agnostic%20will%20increase%20over%20the%20next%20decade&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6754545454545454,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3245454545454546,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 22,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20by%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3095,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6905,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robin%20Hanson's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20frozen.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4717391304347826,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5282608695652173,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 23,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "The strategy-stealing assumption is \"a good enough approximation that we can basically act as if it’s true\". That is, for any strategy an unaligned AI could use to influence the long-run future, there is an analogous strategy that a similarly-sized group of humans can use in order to capture a similar amount of flexible influence over the future. By “flexible” is meant that humans can decide later what to do with that influence  (which is important since humans don’t yet know what we want in the long run).",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20strategy-stealing%20assumption%20is%20\"a%20good%20enough%20approximation%20that%20we%20can%20basically%20act%20as%20if%20it’s%20true\".%20That%20is,%20for%20any%20strategy%20an%20unaligned%20AI%20could%20use%20to%20influence%20the%20long-run%20future,%20there%20is%20an%20analogous%20strategy%20that%20a%20similarly-sized%20group%20of%20humans%20can%20use%20in%20order%20to%20capture%20a%20similar%20amount%20of%20flexible%20influence%20over%20the%20future.%20By%20“flexible”%20is%20meant%20that%20humans%20can%20decide%20later%20what%20to%20do%20with%20that%20influence %20(which%20is%20important%20since%20humans%20don’t%20yet%20know%20what%20we%20want%20in%20the%20long%20run).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.3326923076923077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6673076923076924,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=My%20net%20financial%20worth%20will%20be%20greater%20than%2010%20million%20(2012-inflation%20adjusted),%20or%20enough%20to%20indefinitely%20earn%20a%20passive%20income%20to%20provide%20100%20people%20with%20cryonics,%20(whichever%20of%20the%20two%20is%20greater),%20by%202028&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.08388888888888889,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9161111111111111,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "aliens invade earth in 2023",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=aliens%20invade%20earth%20in%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.009444444444444445,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9905555555555555,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' --Arthur C. Clarke",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='2021%20The%20first%20humans%20land%20on%20Mars.'%20--Arthur%20C.%20Clarke&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.018000000000000002,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.982,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 25,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Millennium%20Prize%20for%20solving%20P%20Versus%20NP%20will%20remain%20unclaimed%20by%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8395238095238095,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.16047619047619055,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“One%20or%20more%20space%20agencies%20will%20send%20a%20manned%20mission%20to%20Mars%20by%202035.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.35,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.65,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 23,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human-level%20artificial%20general%20intelligence%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.26894736842105266,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7310526315789474,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Level%207%20(Chernobyl/2011%20Japan%20level)%20nuclear%20accident%20will%20take%20place%20by%20end%20of%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2161904761904762,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7838095238095237,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 21,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20not%20have%20established%20moon%20bases%20by%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6933333333333332,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.30666666666666675,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The radvac vaccine induces antibodies detectable in a standard commercial blood test in most people, using \"more dakka\", for some reasonable version of \"more dakka\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20radvac%20vaccine%20induces%20antibodies%20detectable%20in%20a%20standard%20commercial%20blood%20test%20in%20most%20people,%20using%20\"more%20dakka\",%20for%20some%20reasonable%20version%20of%20\"more%20dakka\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2172222222222222,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7827777777777778,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 18,
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Nuclear%20power%20plants%20will%20no%20longer%20operate%20by%20the%20year%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.12789473684210526,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8721052631578947,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 17,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=It%20will%20be%20illegal%20to%20drive%20yourself%20on%20USA%20public%20roads%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.017222222222222222,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9827777777777778,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
"numforecasters": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable \"in ten thousand years, or so\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Information%20recorded%20in%20the%20predictionbook%20will%20be%20practically%20retrievable%20\"in%20ten%20thousand%20years,%20or%20so\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.19105263157894736,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8089473684210526,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 19,
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20open%20atheist%20will%20be%20elected%20US%20President%20within%2020%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.0811764705882353,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9188235294117647,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Man%20will%20travel%20to%20Mars%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4288888888888889,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5711111111111111,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders - sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy... - in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202026%20we%20will%20be%20technically%20capable%20of%20fixing%20arbitrary%20single-gene%20disorders%20-%20sickle%20cell%20anaemia,%20Huntington's,%20cystic%20fibrosis,%20Tay-Sachs,%20muscular%20dystrophy...%20-%20in%20living%20humans,%20with%20close%20to%20zero%20risk%20of%20severe%20complications.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.3466666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6533333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "US presidents term limits abolished",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=US%20presidents%20term%20limits%20abolished&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.02235294117647059,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.9776470588235294,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 17,
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Mars%20colony%20will%20be%20established%20in%202026.%20It%20will%20be%20an%20International%20establishment.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.049,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.951,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "If we receive a message from outer space, will it be in a form already accessible today (e.g., radio waves)?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20receive%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20it%20be%20in%20a%20form%20already%20accessible%20today%20(e.g.,%20radio%20waves)?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7770588235294117,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2229411764705883,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20people%20living%20today%20(October%2017th,%202009)%20will%20also%20be%20alive%20on%20October%2017th,%203009.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.35526315789473684,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6447368421052632,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=An%20alive%20human%20has%20been%20on%20mars%20soil%20and%20returned%20to%20earth%20safely%20before%20year%202100.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5777777777777778,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.42222222222222217,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Legal%20challenges%20initiated%20by%20the%20Donald%20Trump%20campaign%20will%20not%20change%20the%20outcome%20of%20the%20US%20Presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9531578947368421,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.04684210526315791,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20will%20come%20out%20as%20trans%20(MtF%20or%20MtX)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.04125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.95875,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 16,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Extraterrestrial%20%20life%20will%20be%20confirmed%20on%20at%20least%20one%20body%20by%202050.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.5517647058823529,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.44823529411764707,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The Great Filter is the discovery of AGI, because it destroys their creators (us humans).",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Great%20Filter%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20AGI,%20because%20it%20destroys%20their%20creators%20(us%20humans).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.28,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.72,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "If First Contact yields information beyond current human knowledge, will it be shared and made available for all humans?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20yields%20information%20beyond%20current%20human%20knowledge,%20will%20it%20be%20shared%20and%20made%20available%20for%20all%20humans?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6647058823529411,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.33529411764705885,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "If we answer it, will it be a single answer sent by all of humanity?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20answer%20it,%20will%20it%20be%20a%20single%20answer%20sent%20by%20all%20of%20humanity?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.294375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.705625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "If a message from outer space is detected, will we answer it?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20is%20detected,%20will%20we%20answer%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7394117647058823,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2605882352941177,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 17,
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Are there simple changes to chimps (or other animals) that would make them much better at accumulating culture?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Are%20there%20simple%20changes%20to%20chimps%20(or%20other%20animals)%20that%20would%20make%20them%20much%20better%20at%20accumulating%20culture?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5689655172413793,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.43103448275862066,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 29,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will humans continually pursue all simple yet powerful changes to our AIs?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20continually%20pursue%20all%20simple%20yet%20powerful%20changes%20to%20our%20AIs?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5936,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4064,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 25,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mark%20Zuckerberg,%20co-founder%20of%20Facebook,%20is%20President%20of%20the%20United%20States%20before%202026&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.03705882352941177,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.9629411764705882,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The EA community has sometimes erred too much on the side of shutting down discussions of biology by turning them into discussions about info-hazards.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20EA%20community%20has%20sometimes%20erred%20too%20much%20on%20the%20side%20of%20shutting%20down%20discussions%20of%20biology%20by%20turning%20them%20into%20discussions%20about%20info-hazards.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7811764705882354,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.21882352941176464,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Decision-makers in media and PR, and corporate and government elites generally, have a lower tolerance for verbal conflict and taboo violations than the typical individual.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Decision-makers%20in%20media%20and%20PR,%20and%20corporate%20and%20government%20elites%20generally,%20have%20a%20lower%20tolerance%20for%20verbal%20conflict%20and%20taboo%20violations%20than%20the%20typical%20individual.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7655,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.23450000000000004,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jesus%20will%20not%20come%20down%20from%20the%20heavens%20to%20judge%20mankind%20in%20my%20life%20time,%20my%20childrens%20life%20time,%20or%20my%20grand-childrens%20life%20time.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.926875,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.073125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 16,
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "C still widely in use in the 2020s",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=C%20still%20widely%20in%20use%20in%20the%202020s&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9353333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.06466666666666665,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ghislane%20Maxwell%20will%20die%20by%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year%2012/31&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1448,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8552,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 25,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "There will NOT be a \"World War III\" within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's \"allies\" and NATO and/or western europe)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20NOT%20be%20a%20\"World%20War%20III\"%20within%20the%20next%2010%20years.%20(Between%20Russia%20and%20it's%20\"allies\"%20and%20NATO%20and/or%20western%20europe)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.933125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.06687500000000002,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20CRISPR-edited%20human%20baby%20will%20be%20born%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.43473684210526314,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5652631578947369,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20will%20collapse%20before%20the%20People's%20Republic%20of%20China.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.41470588235294115,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5852941176470589,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kamala%20Harris%20will%20be%20president%20on%20Nov.%201,%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.118125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.881875,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 15,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"by%202030%20we%20should%20have%20the%20capability%20to%20upload%20a%20person’s%20consciousness%20to%20a%20computer%20system\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.062,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.938,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.\" --James Miller",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Within%20ten%20years%20the%20SAT%20testing%20service%20will%20require%20students%20to%20take%20a%20blood%20test%20to%20prove%20they%20are%20not%20on%20cognitive%20enhancing%20drugs.\"%20--James%20Miller&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.0955,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9045,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 20,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally.\r\n",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Banning%20of%20incandescent%20light%20bulbs%20globally%20by%202022.Incandescent%20lightbulbs%20will%20not%20be%20bought,%20manufactured%20or%20sold%20legally.\r\n&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.111875,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.888125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Hacking%20and%20cyberterrorism%20will%20be%20punishable%20by%20death%20worldwide%20by%20Dec.%201,%202029.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.07,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9299999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20scientists%20will%20publish%20a%20paper%20in%20a%20refereed%20journal%20claiming%20to%20have%20experimentally%20moved%20matter%20faster%20than%20the%20speed%20of%20light.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.09466666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9053333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20more%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.3026315789473684,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6973684210526316,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will we understand the content of a message from outer space?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20we%20understand%20the%20content%20of%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.47388888888888886,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5261111111111112,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20contain%20less%20than%2050%20states%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.09823529411764706,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9017647058823529,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI be in biological form?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20be%20in%20biological%20form?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.17394444444444446,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.8260555555555555,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20mid-century,%20Mandarin%20will%20be%20more%20widely%20spoken%20in%20Africa%20than%20English.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.28214285714285714,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7178571428571429,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The message begins with \"Execute this algorithm on a computer today, or I will make your sun go supernova tomorrow\". Should we execute it?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20message%20begins%20with%20\"Execute%20this%20algorithm%20on%20a%20computer%20today,%20or%20I%20will%20make%20your%20sun%20go%20supernova%20tomorrow\".%20Should%20we%20execute%20it?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.07857142857142857,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9214285714285715,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Gay%20marriage%20will%20remain%20legal%20throughout%20a%20Trump%20presidency.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.8717647058823529,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.12823529411764711,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=I%20will%20not%20pass%20Eliezer%20in%20LW%20karma%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8220000000000001,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.17799999999999994,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 15,
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20next%20non-Democrat%20to%20win%20the%20White%20House%20will%20also%20be%20a%20non-Republican.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.83,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20%20autonomous%20drones%20will%20have%20been%20used%20by%20a%20government%20agency%20to%20kill%20someone.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.53,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.47,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20invades%20South%20Korea%20before%20the%20end%20of%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.05941176470588236,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9405882352941176,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 17,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Microsoft%20will%20release%20the%20source%20code%20to%20the%20current%20version%20of%20Windows%20under%20a%20free-software%20license.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.86,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20United%20States%20will%20reach%20less%20than%203%%20unemployment%20at%20some%20point%20within%20the%20next%2015%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.11733333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.8826666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 14,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20right%20wing%20billionaire%20is%20behind%20the%20creation%20of%20bitcoin.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.08785714285714287,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9121428571428571,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "10 million",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=10%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.08416666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.9158333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 36,
"numforecasters": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "If First Contact is in physical form, will the ETI \"spaceship\" be larger than 1m in size?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20First%20Contact%20is%20in%20physical%20form,%20will%20the%20ETI%20\"spaceship\"%20be%20larger%20than%201m%20in%20size?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5135714285714286,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.48642857142857143,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"The Essential Workers\" (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"The%20Essential%20Workers\"%20(or%20similar%20subject)%20will%20be%20TIME%20Magazine's%20Person%20of%20the%20Year%20for%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4026666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5973333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20is%20the%20sitting%20president%204%20years%20from%20today&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Trump dies of COVID-19",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20COVID-19&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.06625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.93375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 32,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20AI%20won't%20happen%20in%20the%20next%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.853125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.14687499999999998,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20tech%20will%20exist%20and%20be%20relatively%20safe%20for%20media%20to%20be%20uploaded%20directly%20into%20the%20human%20brain%20by%202026.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.14615384615384616,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8538461538461538,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Satoshi%20Nakamoto%20is%20just%20Wei%20Dai%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202060&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1336842105263158,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8663157894736842,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Steve%20Jobs'%20brain%20was%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%20two%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.040769230769230766,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9592307692307692,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fusion%20Power%20will%20revolutionize%20the%20world%20energy%20demands%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.09466666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9053333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Truly \"Pilotless\" air travel will be the standard in 2050.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Truly%20\"Pilotless\"%20air%20travel%20will%20be%20the%20standard%20in%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6271428571428571,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3728571428571429,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reproductive%20human%20cloning%20widely%20socially%20accepted%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.320625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6793750000000001,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. -- Robin Hanson",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Our%20descendants%20will%20colonize%20millions%20of%20star%20systems%20within%20ten%20thousand%20years%20or%20so.%20--%20Robin%20Hanson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2764285714285714,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7235714285714285,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The core cognitive loop that causes progress in accomplished Buddhists is basically cognitive behavioral therapy, supercharged with a mental state more intense than most pharmaceuticals.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20core%20cognitive%20loop%20that%20causes%20progress%20in%20accomplished%20Buddhists%20is%20basically%20cognitive%20behavioral%20therapy,%20supercharged%20with%20a%20mental%20state%20more%20intense%20than%20most%20pharmaceuticals.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4446153846153846,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5553846153846154,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%20the%20next%20ten%20years,%20self-identified%20Libertarians%20will%20outnumber%20self-identified%20Republicans%20in%20the%20US.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1469230769230769,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8530769230769231,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. -- Alyssa Vance",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202022,%20[almost]%20every%20new%20car%20will%20have%20broadband%20Internet.%20--%20Alyssa%20Vance&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.44153846153846155,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5584615384615385,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, \"How to create a mind\")",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20level%20AI%20by%202029%20(Ray%20Kurzweil,%20\"How%20to%20create%20a%20mind\")&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2675,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7324999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030,%20mothers%20will%20be%20the%20primary%20breadwinner%20in%20the%20majority%20of%20households%20with%20children%20in%20the%20U.S.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3830769230769231,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6169230769230769,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Roman%20Catholic%20Church%20ordains%20female%20priests%20before%202033.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1853846153846154,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8146153846153846,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=USA%20mints%20a%20coin%20worth%20$1,000,000,000%20or%20more%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.045,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.955,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202065,%20a%20majority%20of%20the%20world%20will%20be%20vegan.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.11076923076923077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8892307692307693,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Average%20world%20IQ%20to%20decrease%20from%202015%20to%202050&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2978571428571428,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7021428571428572,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Saudi%20Arabian%20government%20collapses%20within%20the%20next%205%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.106875,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.893125,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=All%20children%20in%20the%20US%20must%20have%20GPS%20attached%20to%20them%20in%20some%20sense%20by%20law%20if%20they%20leave%20their%20parents%20house.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.04923076923076923,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9507692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Humanity still a thing in 2036",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Humanity%20still%20a%20thing%20in%202036&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.89,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.10999999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "There be a \"SETI Winter\" before First Contact.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20be%20a%20\"SETI%20Winter\"%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7389473684210526,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2610526315789474,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "ETI is AGI",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=ETI%20is%20AGI&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8461111111111111,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.15388888888888885,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "We will experience an existential catastrophe before First Contact.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20experience%20an%20existential%20catastrophe%20before%20First%20Contact.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.40842105263157896,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.591578947368421,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Before receiving a message from outer space, will we need a technological breakthrough (e.g., by discovering yet unknown elementary particles)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%20receiving%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space,%20will%20we%20need%20a%20technological%20breakthrough%20(e.g.,%20by%20discovering%20yet%20unknown%20elementary%20particles)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.29333333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7066666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 18,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20will%20invade%20South%20Korea%20by%20January%201st,%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.05333333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9466666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
"numforecasters": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%202030,%20commercial%20passengers%20will%20routinely%20fly%20in%20pilotless%20planes.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.35,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.65,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will first contact cause an existential catastrophe?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20first%20contact%20cause%20an%20existential%20catastrophe?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.49242424242424243,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5075757575757576,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 33,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "If the message is not shared, will it yield a decisive advantage for its owner?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20the%20message%20is%20not%20shared,%20will%20it%20yield%20a%20decisive%20advantage%20for%20its%20owner?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4310526315789474,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5689473684210526,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 19,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20dies%20of%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.04642857142857143,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9535714285714285,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=North%20Korea%20and%20South%20Korea%20to%20unify%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2025,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7975,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will a message from outer space contain deep and profound information?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20a%20message%20from%20outer%20space%20contain%20deep%20and%20profound%20information?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5246666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4753333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5107142857142857,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4892857142857143,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' --Kevin",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='By%20the%20end%20of%20the%20decade,%20it%20will%20be%20clear%20that%20North%20Korea%20never%20had%20nuclear%20weapons%20under%20Kim%20Jong%20Il.'%20--Kevin&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.14166666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8583333333333334,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=There%20will%20be%20a%20Youtube%20video%20with%20more%20views%20(on%20Youtube)%20than%20there%20will%20be%20living%20humans%20before%202020.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.63,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.37,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "100 million",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=100%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.007931034482758621,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9920689655172413,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 29,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“There%20will%20be%20a%20casino%20on%20the%20moon%20by%202040.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.03833333333333334,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9616666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6083333333333334,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3916666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "If we find indications of a dormant artifact buried on the moon, should we dig it up?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20we%20find%20indications%20of%20a%20dormant%20artifact%20buried%20on%20the%20moon,%20should%20we%20dig%20it%20up?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.30000000000000004,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alphabet/Google%20buys%20Microsoft&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.07714285714285714,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9228571428571428,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "If someone does experience a clogged drainpipe effect, is it possible to \"train it away\"? That is, to, with 1000 hours of practice, get to a point where their life largely looks the same as it did before except that they report no longer experiencing the effect (and this is borne out by measures of # of quality-adjusted ideas babbled per time unit, or similar)? (It doesn't count if the only way of doing it is by, say, making sure to write 10 ideas every day, or something similar. I'm wondering if it's possible to change your cognition at a deep level, rather than using particular, deliberate, S2 techniques to sustain an equilibirum which you'd fall out of if you stopped using the techniques)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=If%20someone%20does%20experience%20a%20clogged%20drainpipe%20effect,%20is%20it%20possible%20to%20\"train%20it%20away\"?%20That%20is,%20to,%20with%201000%20hours%20of%20practice,%20get%20to%20a%20point%20where%20their%20life%20largely%20looks%20the%20same%20as%20it%20did%20before%20except%20that%20they%20report%20no%20longer%20experiencing%20the%20effect%20(and%20this%20is%20borne%20out%20by%20measures%20of%20#%20of%20quality-adjusted%20ideas%20babbled%20per%20time%20unit,%20or%20similar)?%20(It%20doesn't%20count%20if%20the%20only%20way%20of%20doing%20it%20is%20by,%20say,%20making%20sure%20to%20write%2010%20ideas%20every%20day,%20or%20something%20similar.%20I'm%20wondering%20if%20it's%20possible%20to%20change%20your%20cognition%20at%20a%20deep%20level,%20rather%20than%20using%20particular,%20deliberate,%20S2%20techniques%20to%20sustain%20an%20equilibirum%20which%20you'd%20fall%20out%20of%20if%20you%20stopped%20using%20the%20techniques)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6315384615384615,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.3684615384615385,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
"numforecasters": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2020, there will be a new World government. --Ray Kurzweil",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202020,%20there%20will%20be%20a%20new%20World%20government.%20--Ray%20Kurzweil&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.027333333333333334,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9726666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Effective%20HIV%20vaccine%20developed%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.696923076923077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.303076923076923,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Warren%20Buffett:%20All%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20will%20be%20electric%20by%20year%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3358333333333334,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6641666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "1 year continuous human habitation of the moon",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1%20year%20continuous%20human%20habitation%20of%20the%20moon&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.15928571428571428,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8407142857142857,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.304,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.696,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20the%20end%20of%20the%20year,%20all%20SlateStarCodex%20archives%20are%20rehosted%20by%20Scott%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20some%20other%20site%20(third-party%20created%20archives%20don't%20count)%20AND%20Scott%20has%20written%20at%20least%20one%20new%20post%20on%20SlateStarCodex%20or%20this%20new%20site&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7892307692307692,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.21076923076923082,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20will%20be%20an%20Islamic%20theocracy%20by%2031%20December%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.013076923076923076,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9869230769230769,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20detect%20evidence%20of%20Intelligent%20alien%20life%20within%20the%20next%2050%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.24333333333333332,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.7566666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20first%20person%20to%20set%20foot%20on%20Mars%20will%20have%20left%20Earth%20holding%20American%20citizenship.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.46692307692307694,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.533076923076923,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Riemann%20hypothesis%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3707692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6292307692307693,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Donald%20Knuth%20will%20die%20before%20finishing%20TAOCP.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8683333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1316666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Simon%20Cowell%20will%20be%20cryogenically%20stored.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1825,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8175,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Lab-grown%20meat%20on%20sale%20at%2020%20times%20the%20price%20of%20animal-grown%20meat%20or%20cheaper.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6333333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3666666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202060%20there%20will%20be%20a%20human%20alive%20with%20age%20140%20or%20older.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4607142857142857,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5392857142857144,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20European%20Union%20will%20unite%20into%20a%20single%20super%20state%20by%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.175,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.825,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Some%20modes%20of%20the%20Large%20Hadron%20collider%20will%20never%20be%20reached%20and%20by%202025%20the%20scientific%20community%20will%20debate%20in%20a%20peer%20reviewed%20physics%20journal%20with%20>median%20impact%20that%20this%20is%20due%20to%20the%20anthropic%20principle%20combined%20with%20the%20danger%20of%20those%20modes.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.14333333333333334,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.8566666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Kanye West elected President by 2032 -- Scott Adams",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Kanye%20West%20elected%20President%20by%202032%20--%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.006,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.994,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.\" -lukeprog",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"Mankind%20is%20unlikely%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20like%20its%20present%20form%20in%202150.\"%20-lukeprog&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6653846153846154,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.33461538461538465,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. --S. Jay Olshansky",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=the%20average%20lifespan%20will%20be%20eighty-five%20to%20ninety%20in%202100.%20--S.%20Jay%20Olshansky&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.07642857142857143,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9235714285714286,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "50 million",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=50%20million&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.016470588235294115,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9835294117647059,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 34,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=They'll%20clone%20a%20woolly%20mammoth%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5557142857142857,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4442857142857143,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202025,%2020%%20of%20all%20US%20driving%20miles%20to%20be%20by%20self-driving%20cars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.31384615384615383,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6861538461538461,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Jeffrey%20Epstein%20was%20murdered%20and%20there%20is%20good%20evidence%20(e.g.%20footage%20or%20accepted%20confession%20or%20arrest%20warrant%20or%20conviction)%20that%20this%20was%20the%20case,%20before%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.03538461538461538,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9646153846153847,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The effect of First contact is mostly beneficial (e.g., cooperative or merely detectable)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20beneficial%20(e.g.,%20cooperative%20or%20merely%20detectable)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2888,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7112,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 25,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will humans (at least one) leave the solar system within 10 years after First Contact?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20humans%20(at%20least%20one)%20leave%20the%20solar%20system%20within%2010%20years%20after%20First%20Contact?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.332,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6679999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 15,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.\" --Dennis Mangan",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"within%205%20years%20of%20leaving%20office,%20the%20Obamas%20will%20have%20a%20net%20worth%20of%20more%20than%20$50%20million.\"%20--Dennis%20Mangan&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6481818181818181,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3518181818181819,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Diagnosing%20standard%20medical%20conditions%20routinely%20involves%20DNA%20testing%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6866666666666668,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.31333333333333324,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"At%20least%20one%20human%20alive%20in%20the%20year%202000%20will%20still%20be%20alive%20in%202150.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5621428571428572,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.43785714285714283,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones\" --Marc Andreessen",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"In%20the%20next%2010%20years,%20I%20expect%20at%20least%20five%20billion%20people%20worldwide%20to%20own%20smartphones\"%20--Marc%20Andreessen&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7516666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2483333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202033,%20more%20than%205%%20of%20deaths%20in%20China%20will%20be%20the%20result%20of%20state-mandated%20involuntary%20euthanasia.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.01,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.99,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Heterogenity of ETI: Are they all the \"same\"? Over millions of years of evolution beyond humanity, have they evolved and converged to some \"final being\"?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Heterogenity%20of%20ETI:%20Are%20they%20all%20the%20\"same\"?%20Over%20millions%20of%20years%20of%20evolution%20beyond%20humanity,%20have%20they%20evolved%20and%20converged%20to%20some%20\"final%20being\"?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.26272727272727275,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7372727272727273,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Arbital%20to%20become%20a%20top-1000%20site%20by%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.09,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.91,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 12,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20US%20will%20institute%20a%20minimum%20guaranteed%20income%20(aka%20basic%20guaranteed%20income,%20unconditional%20basic%20income,%20etc.)%20at%20a%20Federal%20level%20by%202045.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.28428571428571425,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7157142857142857,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Will legal factory farming end by January 1st 2100? ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20legal%20factory%20farming%20end%20by%20January%201st%202100?%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.23377083333333332,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7662291666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 24,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Trump will run for president in 2024",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20will%20run%20for%20president%20in%202024&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.20384615384615384,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7961538461538462,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The effect of First contact is mostly harmful (e.g., selfish ETI, hazards) ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20harmful%20(e.g.,%20selfish%20ETI,%20hazards)%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4081818181818182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5918181818181818,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 22,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Republicans%20will%20win%20the%202024%20presidential%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.45692307692307693,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.543076923076923,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=People%20will%20choose%20virtual-reality%20clothes/make-up/accessories%20(like%20Snapchat%20filters),%20that%20are%20visible%20in%20real%20life%20to%20most%20people%20around%20them.%20This%20will%20be%20used%20by%20>10%%20of%20people,%20walking%20down%20the%20street,%20on%20dates,%20in%20business%20contexts.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.33090909090909093,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6690909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "A professional athlete will *not* voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20professional%20athlete%20will%20*not*%20voluntarily%20amputate%20their%20legs%20to%20use%20prosthetics%20like%20Oscar%20Pistorius,%20before%202041.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.38636363636363635,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6136363636363636,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Intel%20will%20revolutionize%20computing%20by%20placing%20the%20first%20artificial%20quantum%20computer%20chip%20on%20the%20maket%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.1,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Caffeine will be an illegal substance ... in 60 countries by 2027. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caffeine%20will%20be%20an%20illegal%20substance%20...%20in%2060%20countries%20by%202027.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.05416666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9458333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "'President Mike Pence'",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search='President%20Mike%20Pence'&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.140625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.859375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Goldbach's%20conjecture%20proven%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.31636363636363635,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6836363636363636,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20will%20still%20need%20human%20translators%20for%20serious%20translation%20work%20by%202040&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5269230769230769,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.47307692307692306,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Joe%20Biden%20gets%20coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2809090909090909,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7190909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "As of 2019, the US was in an era of unusually large amounts of free speech that elites were starting to get spooked by and defend against.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=As%20of%202019,%20the%20US%20was%20in%20an%20era%20of%20unusually%20large%20amounts%20of%20free%20speech%20that%20elites%20were%20starting%20to%20get%20spooked%20by%20and%20defend%20against.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6778571428571429,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.32214285714285706,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The effect of First contact is mostly neutral (e.g., invisible, indifferent, uninteresting, mild nuisance )",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20effect%20of%20First%20contact%20is%20mostly%20neutral%20(e.g.,%20invisible,%20indifferent,%20uninteresting,%20mild%20nuisance%20)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.55,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.44999999999999996,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 26,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20end%20of%202030,%20there%20will%20be%20commercially%20available%20self-driving%20cars%20in%20at%20least%20one%20OECD%20country%20where%20it%20will%20be%20legal%20to%20use%20them.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9325,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.0675,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%2010%20percent%20of%20people%20in%20the%20U.S.%20to%20be%20vegetarian%20(or%20in-vitro-ist)%20in%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.29083333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7091666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=With%20the%20making%20of%20the%20North%20American%20Union,%20a%20new%20revolutionary%20technology%20will%20be%20developed%20in%20the%20attempt%20to%20set%20a%20colony%20on%20Mars.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.08923076923076924,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9107692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“I%20predict%20that%20by%202030,%20China%20will%20lay%20an%20ownership%20claim%20to%20the%20entire%20moon.”-%20Kelly%20L%20Anderson&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.08,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.92,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Michelle%20Obama%20will%20run%20for%20office%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.21272727272727274,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7872727272727272,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.\" - Scott Adams",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"there%20is%20a%20100%%20chance%20you%20will%20see%20a%20private%20corporation%20go%20to%20war%20with%20a%20small%20country,%20and%20win,%20within%20twenty%20years.\"%20-%20Scott%20Adams&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.20727272727272728,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7927272727272727,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "China will land a man on Mars by 2050.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=China%20will%20land%20a%20man%20on%20Mars%20by%202050.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4307692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5692307692307692,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Machine%20translation%20no%20worse%20than%20human%20translation%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6592857142857143,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.34071428571428575,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20fusion%20scheme%20will%20succeed%20until%202050,%20when%20ITER%20will%20be%20the%20first%20and%20only%20successful%20fusion%20scheme.%20Nothing%20else%20will%20even%20come%20close%20to%20meeting%20the%20triple%20product,%20nτT%20of%20ITER.%20There%20won't%20be%20a%20commercial%20fusion%20reactor%20in%202050%20though,%20just%20a%20demo&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.45307692307692304,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.546923076923077,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Germany%20to%20decommission%20all%20nuclear%20reactors%20by%202023&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.57,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.43000000000000005,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "GRRM dies before finishing _A Song of Ice and Fire_",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=GRRM%20dies%20before%20finishing%20_A%20Song%20of%20Ice%20and%20Fire_&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4153846153846154,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5846153846153845,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\"By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\"By%20March%2025,%202033,%20there%20will%20be%20successful%20whole%20brain%20emulation.\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.16333333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8366666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The LW user account \"Grognor\" will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20LW%20user%20account%20\"Grognor\"%20will%20make%20a%20comment%20in%20a%20thread%20other%20than%20rationality%20quotes%20some%20time%20in%20the%20next%20ten%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4592307692307692,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5407692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20phosphine%20detected%20on%20Venus%20is%20widely%20agreed%20among%20the%20scientific%20community%20to%20be%20from%20life.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.024166666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.9758333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 12,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20two%20commercial%20reactors%20supplying%20fusion%20power%20to%20the%20grid%20by%202030.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2366666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7633333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant -- a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid -- anywhere in the world.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“In%20the%20year%202050,%20there%20will%20not%20be%20an%20operating%20fusion%20power%20plant%20--%20a%20device%20that%20generates%20net%20energy%20via%20a%20nuclear%20fusion%20reaction%20and%20transmits%20it%20to%20the%20electrical%20grid%20--%20anywhere%20in%20the%20world.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.40909090909090906,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5909090909090909,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20world’s%20first%20lunar%20tourist%20by%20end%20of%202045&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5685714285714285,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4314285714285715,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Neutrino%20communication%20will%20be%20used%20commercially%20for%20high-frequency%20trading%20within%2010%20years.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.10785714285714286,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8921428571428571,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20amendments%20to%20the%20United%20States%20Constitution%20will%20be%20ratified%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7783333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.22166666666666668,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Human drivers will be illegal on *some* USA roads by 2030",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Human%20drivers%20will%20be%20illegal%20on%20*some*%20USA%20roads%20by%202030&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.44083333333333335,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5591666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Biden%20will%20resign%20sometime%20during%20the%20presidency%20conditional%20on%20him%20winning%20the%20election&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.10181818181818182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8981818181818182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=some%20portion%20of%20England%20and%20the%20United%20States%20will%20be%20unified%20as%20one%20country%20or%20similar%20state%20within%2010%20years&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.03769230769230769,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9623076923076923,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SIAI%20shuts%20down%20or%20relocates%20outside%20the%20United%20States%20before%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.13666666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8633333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Trump wins the 2020 election.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20wins%20the%202020%20election.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.4753846153846154,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.5246153846153846,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Significant%20third%20party%20challengers%20will%20temporally%20emerge%20%20within%20the%20next%20eight%20years%20in%20the%20USA.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2475,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7525,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasters": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Before%202030%20organized%20religions%20will%20have%20no%20political%20influence.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.10285714285714287,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8971428571428571,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
"numforecasters": 11,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Larry%20King's%20brain%20will%20be%20cryopreserved%20or%20plastinated%20within%202%20weeks%20of%20declaration%20of%20death,%20and%20this%20is%20known%20before%202070&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.22083333333333333,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.7791666666666667,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire)",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20eradicated%20by%202040%20(Daniel%20Lemire)&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5690909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4309090909090909,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "WWIII starts before 2030.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=WWIII%20starts%20before%202030.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.08857142857142858,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9114285714285715,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202030%20the%20Singularity%20Institute%20for%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20will%20have%20given%20up%20on%20friendly%20AI%20and%20instead%20focus%20on%20fail-safe%20mechanisms.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.309,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.6910000000000001,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 10,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202035,%20the%20general%20consensus%20will%20be%20that%20the%20US%20federal%20government%20orchestrated%20the%209/11%20attacks.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.13083333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8691666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20Internet%20Archive%20will%20operate%20through%202025-07-01&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.789,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.21099999999999997,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Mars%20to%20have%20detectable%20non-anthropogenic%20life%20on%20it&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.217,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.783,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII).",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=The%20First%20Domed%20City%20will%20exist%20before%202040.%20This%20will%20be%20the%20first%20above-ground%20structure%20since%20The%20third%20World%20War%20(WWIII).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.060909090909090906,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9390909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "We ask ETI \"do we live in a simulation\"? They answer \"yes\".",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=We%20ask%20ETI%20\"do%20we%20live%20in%20a%20simulation\"?%20They%20answer%20\"yes\".&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.17923076923076922,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.8207692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Airbnb to be acquired by 2025",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Airbnb%20to%20be%20acquired%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3463636363636363,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6536363636363637,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 -- Aubrey de Grey",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Robust%20mouse%20rejuvenation%20by%202020%20--%20Aubrey%20de%20Grey&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.13142857142857142,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8685714285714285,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. -- Axel Boldt",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Russia%20and%20Morocco%20have%20joined%20the%20European%20Union,%20and%20the%20EU%20slowly%20takes%20on%20the%20character%20of%20a%20nation;%20it%20has%20a%20common%20foreign%20policy%20and%20a%20standing%20army%20by%202040.%20--%20Axel%20Boldt&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.10916666666666666,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8908333333333334,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. -- David Pearce",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20time%20most%20of%20the%20world’s%20population%20has%20made%20the%20transition%20to%20a%20vegan%20or%20cultured-meat%20diet,%20the%20rearing%20of%20other%20sentient%20beings%20for%20human%20consumption%20will%20be%20illegal%20under%20international%20law.%20--%20David%20Pearce&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.84,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "P!=NP, and proven by 2040 --Ken",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=P!=NP,%20and%20proven%20by%202040%20--Ken&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.44166666666666665,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5583333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are not very useful for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20very%20useful%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.34375,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.65625,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 16,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are not directly selected for in species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20not%20directly%20selected%20for%20in%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.467,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5329999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "Will this question get an answer, within a month, I judge as \"very insightful and directly relevant to how I approach Babble challenges in the future, enabling me to learn and grow faster?\"",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Will%20this%20question%20get%20an%20answer,%20within%20a%20month,%20I%20judge%20as%20\"very%20insightful%20and%20directly%20relevant%20to%20how%20I%20approach%20Babble%20challenges%20in%20the%20future,%20enabling%20me%20to%20learn%20and%20grow%20faster?\"&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.2963636363636364,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.7036363636363636,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Ecstasy%20(MDMA)%20will%20be%20legalized%20for%20prescription%20use%20in%20the%20U.S.%20by%202025.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.261,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.739,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Google%20self%20driving%20car%20will%20get%20in%20an%20accident%20(involving%20human%20injury%20or%20property%20damage%20>%20$2k)%20before%20end%20of%202018.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.48,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.52,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Advanced cultural skills are too complex for species with sub-human levels of general cognitive skills and social skills to acquire.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Advanced%20cultural%20skills%20are%20too%20complex%20for%20species%20with%20sub-human%20levels%20of%20general%20cognitive%20skills%20and%20social%20skills%20to%20acquire.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.27785714285714286,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7221428571428572,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=HIV%20will%20be%20cured%20by%202025,%20but%205%20new%20viruses%20deadlier%20than%20it%20will%20replace%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.07090909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9290909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%20the%20end%20of%202063,%20the%20consumption%20of%20meat%20from%20animals%20will%20be%20illegal%20in%20at%20least%20one%20area%20of%20Europe%20or%20North%20America%20with%20a%20population%20of%20at%20least%20100,000&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6036363636363636,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.39636363636363636,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
"title": "By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202085%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20confirmed%20person%20who%20has%20lived%20to%20150&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
"probability": 0.3346153846153846,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
"probability": 0.6653846153846155,
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. \r\n\r\nBy “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Generic%20molecular%20assemblers%20won't%20be%20developed%20within%20the%20next%2020%20years.%20\r\n\r\nBy%20“generic”%20I%20mean%20they%20can%20build%20macroscopic%20(≥ 10 mm³)%20objects%20for%20any%20reasonable%20function,%20and%20by%20“molecular”%20meaning%2050%+%20of%20chemical%20bonds%20don't%20come%20from%20bulk%20chemistry.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7709999999999999,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2290000000000001,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Within%20the%20next%201000%20years%20we%20will%20discover%20that%20the%20singularity%20already%20happened%20a%20very%20long%20time%20ago%20and%20that%20we%20are%20the%20AIs%20that%20resulted%20from%20it.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.155,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.845,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "homosexuality criminalized in the US",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=homosexuality%20criminalized%20in%20the%20US&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.025,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.975,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20dies%20of%20Coronavirus%20in%202020&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.013636363636363636,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9863636363636363,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“By%20the%20year%202150,%20over%2050%%20of%20schools%20in%20the%20USA%20or%20Western%20Europe%20will%20require%20classes%20in%20defending%20against%20robot%20attacks.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.07416666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9258333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Trump%20Elected%20and%20constitutional%20crisis%20with%20US%20military%20disobeying%20direct%20orders%20from%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.113,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.887,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“The%20End%20of%20State%20Sovereignty:%20By%202030,%20some%20form%20of%20international%20federation%20or%20global%20governmental%20structure%20will%20emerge%20that%20can%20exercise%20ultimate%20authority%20over%20world%20affairs.”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.11461538461538462,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8853846153846154,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Scotland%20holds%20another%20independence%20referendum%20in%20the%20next%205%20years.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.556,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.44399999999999995,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"title": "“China will break apart by 2030”",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=“China%20will%20break%20apart%20by%202030”&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.24600000000000002,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"probability": 0.754,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
"numforecasts": 10,
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Caitlyn%20Jenner%20=%20POTUS&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.042,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.958,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20a%20biologically%20functional%20but%20cosmetic%20novel%20body%20part%20produced%20by%203D%20printing%20technology%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20a%20human,%20in%20vivo.%20For%20example:%20A%20horn,%20pointy%20ears,%20or%20an%20extra%20thumb.%20&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.750909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.24909090909090903,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20working%20brain-to-brain%20direct%20communication%20interface%20will%20be%20demonstrated%20in%20human%20clinical%20trials%20by%202025.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.413,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.587,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=SpaceX%20will%20launch%20a%20Mars%20orbit%20or%20flyby%20mission%20before%202021&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7066666666666667,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.29333333333333333,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 12,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Elon%20Musk%20has%20sent%20a%20crewed%20mission%20to%20Mars&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.17300000000000001,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.827,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Fewer%20than%2030%%20of%20the%20US%20Population%20self-identify%20as%20Christians.\r\n\r\nhttp://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.198,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.802,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=More%20than%2050%%20of%20all%20passenger%20cars%20on%20the%20road%20are%20completely%20autonomous,%20self-driving%20vehicles.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.26384615384615384,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7361538461538462,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=By%202050,%20there%20will%20be%20at%20least%20one%20person%20cryonically%20frozen%20in%20space.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.158,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.842,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=A%20Confirmed%20SETI%20detection%20of%20an%20ET%20technological%20civilization.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.12090909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8790909090909091,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=No%20human%20will%20visit%20the%20moon%20from%202012%20to%202032&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5272727272727272,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4727272727272728,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Updated questions for today
2021-02-19 18:20:45 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB).",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%2010%20years%20I%20will%20think%20Reddit/LW-style%20reputational/karma%20systems%20will%20be%20a%20bad%20thing%20(compared%20to%20non-karma%20systems%20like%20OB).&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.204,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.796,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "At least one self-described \"anarchist\" will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=At%20least%20one%20self-described%20\"anarchist\"%20will%20be%20voted%20into%20a%20national%20office%20in%20the%20United%20States%20by%202021.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.3681818181818182,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6318181818181818,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "What probability do you put on YouTube’s algorithm reaching AGI level?",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=What%20probability%20do%20you%20put%20on%20YouTube’s%20algorithm%20reaching%20AGI%20level?&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.09571428571428571,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9042857142857142,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Alien/Time%20travelling%20human%20presence%20revealed%20on%2027th%20of%20March%202022&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.005,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.995,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 10,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=1,000,000+%20planets%20will%20have%20been%20cataloged%20by%202035&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.4107692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.5892307692307692,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=In%202038%20the%20population%20of%20the%20US%20will%20be%202%20billion,%20none%20of%20them%20illegal.%20-Moldbug&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.09357142857142858,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.9064285714285714,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 14,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=Reservatrol%20or%20a%20chemically%20similar%20compound%20will%20be%20an%20accepted%20anti-aging%20treatment%20in%20humans%20by%202025&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.2907692307692308,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.7092307692307692,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "\". The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.\" --Dan King",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=\".%20The%20revenue%20for%20higher%20ed%20is%20falling%20into%20a%20black%20hole.%20I%20predict%20that%20by%202021%20the%20whole%20enterprise%20will%20cease%20to%20exist%20in%20anything%20resembling%20its%20current%20form.\"%20--Dan%20King&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.11461538461538462,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.8853846153846154,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 13,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
},
{
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"title": "EU to dissolve by 2040.",
"url": "https://elicit.org/binary?binaryQuestions.search=EU%20to%20dissolve%20by%202040.&binaryQuestions.sortBy=popularity&limit=20&offset=0",
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"platform": "Elicit",
"options": [
{
"name": "Yes",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.39454545454545453,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
},
{
"name": "No",
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"probability": 0.6054545454545455,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"type": "PROBABILITY"
}
],
Added GiveWell/OpenPhilanthropy
2021-02-23 11:51:32 +00:00
"numforecasts": 11,
Updated code to fetch and save all options, not just yes/no for binary questions
2021-02-18 16:12:55 +00:00
"numforecasters": 10,
"stars": 1
Initial commit
2021-01-12 12:43:41 +00:00
}
]
Reference in New Issue Copy Permalink