[
  {
    "source": "Stanford University — Machine Learning Security Research Led by Dan Boneh and Florian Tramer",

    "target": "Wilson Center — AI Policy Seminar Series",

    "distance": 4.039836724233664,

    "reasoning": "Jaime's estimates.\nThe Wilson Center seems to not be running the AI Policy Seminar Series anymore, so I am led to believe it was not a great success (?). There could be someone key influenced that will facilitate things later but seems unlikely\nThe ML Security program does not seem to have resulted on anything substantial",

    "squiggleString": "1 to 10"
  },

  {
    "source": "Stanford University — Machine Learning Security Research Led by Dan Boneh and Florian Tramer",

    "target": "Open Phil AI Fellowship — 2018 Class",

    "distance": 657.4661082204123,

    "reasoning": "The AI fellows have produced work on interpretability and out of distribution learning.\nSeems to have been better for purchasing influence too, though that's a secondary consideration IMO",

    "squiggleString": "400 to 1000"
  },

  {
    "source": "Wilson Center — AI Policy Seminar Series",

    "target": "Open Phil AI Fellowship — 2018 Class",

    "distance": 403.9836724233662,

    "reasoning": "The research seems more directly relevant from the AI fellows, the policy seminar has no legible output",

    "squiggleString": "100 to 1000"
  },

  {
    "source": "UC Berkeley — AI Safety Research (2018)",

    "target": "Machine Intelligence Research Institute — AI Safety Retraining Program",

    "distance": 40.39836724233665,

    "reasoning": "Seems to support directly people working on the topic, and more counterfactual",

    "squiggleString": "10 to 100"
  },

  {
    "source": "Stanford University — Machine Learning Security Research Led by Dan Boneh and Florian Tramer",

    "target": "UC Berkeley — AI Safety Research (2018)",

    "distance": 7.229755173700019,

    "reasoning": "AI Safety Research Affects more people, someone might end up doing something cool",

    "squiggleString": "5 to 10"
  },

  {
    "source": "Wilson Center — AI Policy Seminar Series",

    "target": "UC Berkeley — AI Safety Research (2018)",

    "distance": 2.663515640351876,

    "reasoning": "Similar value from the outside",

    "squiggleString": "0.1 to 10"
  },

  {
    "source": "UC Berkeley — AI Safety Research (2018)",

    "target": "Open Phil AI Fellowship — 2018 Class",

    "distance": 247.53475654135346,

    "reasoning": "AI fellows produced directly relevant research, are more successful",

    "squiggleString": "(1/(0.001 to 0.01))"
  },

  {
    "source": "Machine Intelligence Research Institute — AI Safety Retraining Program",

    "target": "Open Phil AI Fellowship — 2018 Class",

    "distance": 49.50695130827075,

    "reasoning": "aI fellows seem to have produced more relevant research, though grant is less counterfactual",

    "squiggleString": "(1/(0.005 to 0.05))"
  },

  {
    "source": "Ought — General Support (2018)",

    "target": "Oxford University — Research on the Global Politics of AI",

    "distance": 403.9836724233662,

    "reasoning": "GovAI is doing cool stuff, Ought not so much",

    "squiggleString": "100 to 1000"
  },

  {
    "source": "AI Impacts — General Support (2018)",

    "target": "Michael Cohen and Dmitrii Krasheninnikov — Scholarship Support (2018)",

    "distance": 2.5202870466776885,

    "reasoning": "Direct work seems more important, but Ai impacts work is pretty cool",

    "squiggleString": "1 to 5"
  },

  {
    "source": "Ought — General Support (2018)",

    "target": "AI Impacts — General Support (2018)",

    "distance": 109.28343925564944,

    "reasoning": "AI impacts work has been more successful \\ useful for my research",

    "squiggleString": "50 to 200"
  },

  {
    "source": "AI Impacts — General Support (2018)",

    "target": "Oxford University — Research on the Global Politics of AI",

    "distance": 39.678020061969825,

    "reasoning": "GovAI is doing more work and on a more neglected topic. Both are doing good work, but GOvAI output is bigger",

    "squiggleString": "(1/(0.01 to 0.05))"
  },

  {
    "source": "Oxford University — Research on the Global Politics of AI",

    "target": "Michael Cohen and Dmitrii Krasheninnikov — Scholarship Support (2018)",

    "distance": 2.865987655844147,

    "reasoning": "Cohens work seems harder to replace.\nGovAI is doing more work though",

    "squiggleString": "0.01 to 10"
  },

  {
    "source": "Stanford University — Machine Learning Security Research Led by Dan Boneh and Florian Tramer",

    "target": "Ought — General Support (2018)",

    "distance": 14.338510859889407,

    "reasoning": "At least Ought is trying ",

    "squiggleString": "1 to 50"
  },

  {
    "source": "Wilson Center — AI Policy Seminar Series",

    "target": "Ought — General Support (2018)",

    "distance": 2.663515640351876,

    "reasoning": "Unclear",

    "squiggleString": "0.1 to 10"
  },

  {
    "source": "UC Berkeley — AI Safety Research (2018)",

    "target": "Ought — General Support (2018)",

    "distance": 4.039836724233664,

    "reasoning": "At least ought is trying",

    "squiggleString": "1 to 10"
  },

  {
    "source": "Machine Intelligence Research Institute — AI Safety Retraining Program",

    "target": "Ought — General Support (2018)",

    "distance": 1.4338510859889406,

    "reasoning": "Value more the potential new hire than oughts research",

    "squiggleString": "0.1 to 5"
  },

  {
    "source": "Ought — General Support (2018)",

    "target": "Open Phil AI Fellowship — 2018 Class",

    "distance": 247.53475654135346,

    "reasoning": "Fellows seem to have produced more relevant research",

    "squiggleString": "(1/(0.001 to 0.01))"
  },

  {
    "source": "AI Impacts — General Support (2018)",

    "target": "Open Phil AI Fellowship — 2018 Class",

    "distance": 13.831727022205978,

    "reasoning": "Fellows produced more relevant research, AI impacts work is cool though",

    "squiggleString": "(1/(0.05 to 0.1))"
  },

  {
    "source": "Open Phil AI Fellowship — 2018 Class",

    "target": "Oxford University — Research on the Global Politics of AI",

    "distance": 32.87330541102063,

    "reasoning": "GovAI's grant seems moe counterfactual, their work more directly relevant\n",

    "squiggleString": "20 to 50"
  }
]