diff --git a/packages/README.md b/packages/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3be7556 --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,8 @@ +[](./webpage-refactor/public/example-graph.png) + +This repository contains the code for the website [utility-function-extractor.quantifieduncertainty.org/](https://utility-function-extractor.quantifieduncertainty.org/) and tools to analyze utility comparisons. For details, see the relevant folders. + +- [Webpage repository](to do: add links) +- [Tools repository](to do: add link) + +[](./webpage-refactor/public/example-table.png) diff --git a/packages/webpage-legacy/README.md b/packages/webpage-legacy/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..989b7fb --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/webpage-legacy/README.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Deprecated; see webpage-refactor instead. diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/listOfMoralGoods.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/listOfMoralGoods.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/listOfMoralGoods.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/listOfMoralGoods.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/listOfOpenPhil2018AIRiskGrants.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/listOfOpenPhil2018AIRiskGrants.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/listOfOpenPhil2018AIRiskGrants.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/listOfOpenPhil2018AIRiskGrants.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/listOfResearchOutputs.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/listOfResearchOutputs.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/listOfResearchOutputs.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/listOfResearchOutputs.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/finn-moorhouse.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/finn-moorhouse.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/finn-moorhouse.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/finn-moorhouse.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/gavin-leech-complete.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/gavin-leech-complete.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/gavin-leech-complete.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/gavin-leech-complete.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/gavin-leech.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/gavin-leech.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/gavin-leech.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/gavin-leech.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/jaime-sevilla.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/jaime-sevilla.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/jaime-sevilla.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/jaime-sevilla.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/linch-zhang.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/linch-zhang.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/linch-zhang.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/linch-zhang.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/misha-yagudin.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/misha-yagudin.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/misha-yagudin.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/misha-yagudin.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/ozzie-gooen.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/ozzie-gooen.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/comparisons/ozzie-gooen.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/comparisons/ozzie-gooen.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/gooen.png b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/gooen.png similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/gooen.png rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/gooen.png diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/leech.png b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/leech.png similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/leech.png rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/leech.png diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/moorhouse.png b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/moorhouse.png similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/moorhouse.png rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/moorhouse.png diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/sevilla.png b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/sevilla.png similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/sevilla.png rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/sevilla.png diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/yagudin.png b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/yagudin.png similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/yagudin.png rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/yagudin.png diff --git a/packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/zhang.png b/packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/zhang.png similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/data/results/research/visualizations/zhang.png rename to packages/webpage-legacy/data/results/research/visualizations/zhang.png diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/comparisonView.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/comparisonView.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/comparisonView.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/comparisonView.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/comparisonsChanger.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/comparisonsChanger.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/comparisonsChanger.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/comparisonsChanger.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/d3experiment.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/d3experiment.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/d3experiment.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/d3experiment.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/datasetChanger.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/datasetChanger.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/datasetChanger.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/datasetChanger.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/displayAsMarkdown.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/displayAsMarkdown.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/displayAsMarkdown.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/displayAsMarkdown.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/displayElement.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/displayElement.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/displayElement.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/displayElement.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/findPaths.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/findPaths.js similarity index 99% rename from packages/webpage/lib/findPaths.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/findPaths.js index 7e35468..699d297 100644 --- a/packages/webpage/lib/findPaths.js +++ b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/findPaths.js @@ -354,7 +354,7 @@ export function CreateTable({ tableRows }) { } return (
- +
diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/labeledGraph.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/labeledGraph.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/labeledGraph.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/labeledGraph.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/pushToMongo.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/pushToMongo.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/pushToMongo.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/pushToMongo.js diff --git a/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/pushToMongoManually.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/pushToMongoManually.js new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fc197f9 --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/pushToMongoManually.js @@ -0,0 +1,337 @@ +import axios from "axios"; + +let data = [ + { + source: "Thinking Fast and Slow", + + target: "The Mathematical Theory of Communication", + + distance: 99999.99999999999, + + reasoning: + "TFS: Not original work. 1 million buyers, 0.3m readers, 0.03m did anything with it long-term. Debiasing doesn't work that much. But maybe some general sanity effects.\nMTC: foundational to half of good fields. Direct applications key to telecoms and internet, AI. Is very natural and probably invented anyway, but let's ignore replaceability. ", + }, + + { + source: "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda", + + target: "Superintelligence", + + distance: 100, + + reasoning: + "GPI: good stuff but v v hard questions read by ~200.\nSuperintelligence: Maybe 50,000 copies? associated interview tour transformed the field.", + }, + + { + source: "Thinking Fast and Slow", + + target: "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda", + + distance: "100", + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda", + + target: "The Mathematical Theory of Communication", + + distance: 1000, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Superintelligence", + + target: "The Mathematical Theory of Communication", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law", + + target: "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations", + + target: "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations", + + target: "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law", + + distance: 100, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism", + + target: "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations", + + target: "Thinking Fast and Slow", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Thinking Fast and Slow", + + target: "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism", + + distance: 1, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "The motivated reasoning critique of effective altruism", + + target: "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda", + + distance: 1000, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Categorizing Variants of Goodhart's Law", + + target: "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda", + + distance: 100, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis", + + target: "The Global Priorities Institute's Research Agenda", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Reversals in Psychology", + + target: "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: + "RiP: Cleaning up 10,000 people's brains a bit.\nMPS: far more important topic", + }, + + { + source: "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work", + + target: + "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?", + + distance: "5", + + reasoning: + "\nDatabase just saves a bit of time, maybe 100 counterfactual applications", + }, + + { + source: "Reversals in Psychology", + + target: "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work", + + distance: 1, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work", + + target: "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: + "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?", + + target: "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building", + + distance: 2, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub", + + target: + "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area", + + distance: 1000, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "A comment on setting up a charity", + + target: "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub", + + distance: 10, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "A comment on setting up a charity", + + target: "Reversals in Psychology", + + distance: 200, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub", + + target: "Reversals in Psychology", + + distance: 20, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Reversals in Psychology", + + target: + "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area", + + distance: "50", + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work", + + target: + "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area", + + distance: "50", + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: + "What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?", + + target: + "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area", + + distance: "10", + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building", + + target: + "Extinguishing or preventing coal seam fires is a potential cause area", + + distance: 1, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "A comment on setting up a charity", + + target: "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations", + + distance: 1000, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Center for Election Science EA Wiki stub", + + target: "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations", + + distance: 100, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Reversals in Psychology", + + target: "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations", + + distance: 100, + + reasoning: "", + }, + + { + source: "Database of orgs relevant to longtermist/x-risk work", + + target: "Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations", + + distance: 100, + + reasoning: "", + }, +]; + +async function pushToMongoManually() { + let response = await axios.post( + "http://metaforecast-twitter-bot.herokuapp.com/utility-function-extractor", + { + data: data, + } + ); + console.log(response); +} +pushToMongoManually(); + diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/squiggleWrapper.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/squiggleWrapper.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/squiggleWrapper.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/squiggleWrapper.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/submitButton.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/submitButton.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/submitButton.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/submitButton.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/lib/utils.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/lib/utils.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/lib/utils.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/lib/utils.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/netlify.toml b/packages/webpage-legacy/netlify.toml similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/netlify.toml rename to packages/webpage-legacy/netlify.toml diff --git a/packages/webpage/package.json b/packages/webpage-legacy/package.json similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/package.json rename to packages/webpage-legacy/package.json diff --git a/packages/webpage/pages/_app.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/pages/_app.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/pages/_app.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/pages/_app.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/pages/api/hello.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/pages/api/hello.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/pages/api/hello.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/pages/api/hello.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/pages/index.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/pages/index.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/pages/index.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/pages/index.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/pages/openphil-2018-ai-risk.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/pages/openphil-2018-ai-risk.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/pages/openphil-2018-ai-risk.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/pages/openphil-2018-ai-risk.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/pages/research.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/pages/research.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/pages/research.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/pages/research.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/postcss.config.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/postcss.config.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/postcss.config.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/postcss.config.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/public/favicon.ico b/packages/webpage-legacy/public/favicon.ico similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/public/favicon.ico rename to packages/webpage-legacy/public/favicon.ico diff --git a/packages/webpage/public/vercel.svg b/packages/webpage-legacy/public/vercel.svg similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/public/vercel.svg rename to packages/webpage-legacy/public/vercel.svg diff --git a/packages/webpage/styles/globals.css b/packages/webpage-legacy/styles/globals.css similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/styles/globals.css rename to packages/webpage-legacy/styles/globals.css diff --git a/packages/webpage/tailwind.config.js b/packages/webpage-legacy/tailwind.config.js similarity index 100% rename from packages/webpage/tailwind.config.js rename to packages/webpage-legacy/tailwind.config.js diff --git a/packages/webpage/yarn.lock 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+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/packages/webpage-refactor/README.md b/packages/webpage-refactor/README.md index 317254f..e71fb46 100644 --- a/packages/webpage-refactor/README.md +++ b/packages/webpage-refactor/README.md @@ -4,13 +4,37 @@ This repository creates a react webpage that allows to extract a utility functio It presents the users with a series of elements to compare, using merge-sort in the background to cleverly minimize the number of choices needed. -Then, it cleverly aggregates them, by taking each element as a reference point in turn, and computing the possible distances from that reference point to all other points, and taking the geometric mean of these distances. This produces a number representing the value of each element, such that the ratios between elements represent the user's preferences: a utility function. +![](./public/example-prompt.png) + +Then, it cleverly aggregates them, on the one hand by producing a graphical representation: + +![](./public/example-graph.png) + +and on the other hand doing some fast and clever mean aggregation [^1]: + +![](./public/example-table.png) Initially, users could only input numbers, e.g., "A is `3` times better than B". But now, users can also input distributions, using the [squiggle](https://www.squiggle-language.com/) syntax, e.g., "A is `1 to 10` times better than B", or "A is `mm(normal(1, 10), uniform(0,100))` better than B". -## +**If you want to use the utility function extractor for a project, we are happy to add a page for your project, like `utility-function-extractor.quantifieduncertainty.org/your-project`**. -## Object structure +## Built with + +- [Nextjs](https://nextjs.org/) +- [Netlify](https://github.com/netlify/netlify-plugin-nextjs/#readme) +- [React](https://reactjs.org/) +- [Squiggle](https://www.squiggle-language.com/) +- [Utility tools](to do: add links) + +## Usage + +Navigate to [utility-function-extractor.quantifieduncertainty.org/](https://utility-function-extractor.quantifieduncertainty.org/), and start comparing objects. + +You can change the list of objects to be compared by clicking on "advanced options". + +After comparing objects for a while, you will get a table and a graph with results. You can also use the [utility tools](to do: add link) package to process these results, for which you will need the json of comparisons, which can be found in "Advanced options" -> "Load comparisons" + +## Notes The core structure is json array of objects. Only the "name" attribute is required. If there is a "url", it is displayed nicely. @@ -29,9 +53,35 @@ The core structure is json array of objects. Only the "name" attribute is requir ] ``` -## Netlify +The core structure for links is as follows: -https://github.com/netlify/netlify-plugin-nextjs/#readme +``` +[ + { + "source": "Peter Parker", + "target": "Spiderman", + "squiggleString": "1 to 100", + "distance": 26.639800977355474 + }, + { + "source": "Spiderman", + "target": "Doctor Octopus", + "squiggleString": "20 to 2000", + "distance": 6.76997149080232 + }, + +] +``` + +A previous version of this webpage had a more complicated structure, but it has since been simplified. + +## Contributions and help + +We welcome PR requests. + +## License + +Distributed under the MIT License. See LICENSE.txt for more information. ## To do @@ -40,12 +90,16 @@ https://github.com/netlify/netlify-plugin-nextjs/#readme - [x] Push to github - [x] Push to netlify - [x] Don't allow further comparisons after completion -- [ ] Paths table - - [ ] Add paths table - - [ ] warn that the paths table is approximate. +- [x] Paths table + - [x] Add paths table + - [x] warn that the paths table is approximate. - However, I really don't feel like re-adding this after having worked out the distribution rather than the mean aggregation - However, I think it does make it more user to other users. - [ ] Add functionality like names, etc. - I also don't feel like doing this - [ ] Look back at Amazon thing which has been running -- [ ] Change README. +- [x] Change README. + +## Footnotes + +[^1]: The program takes each element as a reference point in turn, and computing the possible distances from that reference point to all other points, and taking the geometric mean of these distances. This produces a number representing the value of each element, such that the ratios between elements represent the user's preferences: a utility function. However, this isn't perfect; the principled approach woud be to aggregate the distributions rather than their means. But this principled approach is much more slowly. For the principled approach, see the `utility-tools` repository. diff --git a/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/advancedOptions.js b/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/advancedOptions.js index 048cb5a..8b671c1 100644 --- a/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/advancedOptions.js +++ b/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/advancedOptions.js @@ -39,11 +39,12 @@ export function AdvancedOptions({ ]; return ( -
+

{/* Show advanced options*/} diff --git a/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/comparisonsChanger.js b/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/comparisonsChanger.js index 5af9425..e3b4071 100644 --- a/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/comparisonsChanger.js +++ b/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/comparisonsChanger.js @@ -1,4 +1,5 @@ import React, { useState, useEffect } from "react"; +import { Separator } from "../separator.js"; // import JSONInput from "react-json-editor-ajrm/index"; // import locale from "react-json-editor-ajrm/locale/en"; @@ -75,6 +76,7 @@ export function ComparisonsChanger({ onSubmit={handleSubmitInner} className={`inline ${show ? "" : "hidden"}`} > +

Load comparisons

These can be edited, which will override your current comparisons.


diff --git a/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/datasetChanger.js b/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/datasetChanger.js index 3a61d67..2023ae7 100644 --- a/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/datasetChanger.js +++ b/packages/webpage-refactor/components/advancedOptions/datasetChanger.js @@ -1,4 +1,5 @@ import React, { useState } from "react"; +import { Separator } from "../separator.js"; export function DataSetChanger({ onChangeOfDataset, show, listOfElements }) { /*let [value, setValue] = useState(`[ @@ -54,6 +55,7 @@ export function DataSetChanger({ onChangeOfDataset, show, listOfElements }) { }; return (
+

Change dataset