87 lines
3.7 KiB
C
87 lines
3.7 KiB
C
#include "../../squiggle.h"
|
|
#include "../../squiggle_more.h"
|
|
#include <math.h>
|
|
#include <stdint.h>
|
|
#include <stdio.h>
|
|
#include <stdlib.h>
|
|
|
|
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(double year, uint64_t* seed)
|
|
{
|
|
double successes = 0;
|
|
double failures = (year - 1960);
|
|
return sample_laplace(successes, failures, seed);
|
|
// ^ can change to (successes + 1)/(trials + 2)
|
|
// to get a probability,
|
|
// rather than sampling from a distribution over probabilities.
|
|
}
|
|
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023(uint64_t* seed)
|
|
{
|
|
return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023, seed);
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(double year, double rebuilding_period_length_years, uint64_t* seed)
|
|
{
|
|
// assumption: nuclear
|
|
double successes = 1.0;
|
|
double failures = (year - rebuilding_period_length_years - 1960 - 1);
|
|
return sample_laplace(successes, failures, seed);
|
|
}
|
|
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example(uint64_t* seed)
|
|
{
|
|
double year = 2070;
|
|
double rebuilding_period_length_years = 30;
|
|
// So, there was a nuclear collapse in 2040,
|
|
// then a recovery period of 30 years
|
|
// and it's now 2070
|
|
return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery(year, rebuilding_period_length_years, seed);
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
double yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive(uint64_t* seed)
|
|
{
|
|
return yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse(2023, seed) / 2;
|
|
}
|
|
|
|
int main()
|
|
{
|
|
// set randomness seed
|
|
uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
|
|
*seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
|
|
|
|
int num_samples = 1000000;
|
|
|
|
// Before a first nuclear collapse
|
|
printf("## Before the first nuclear collapse\n");
|
|
ci ci_90_2023 = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023, seed);
|
|
printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", ci_90_2023.low, ci_90_2023.high);
|
|
|
|
double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
|
|
for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
|
|
yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023(seed);
|
|
}
|
|
printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_2023_samples, num_samples));
|
|
|
|
// After the first nuclear collapse
|
|
printf("\n## After the first nuclear collapse\n");
|
|
ci ci_90_2070 = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example, seed);
|
|
printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", ci_90_2070.low, ci_90_2070.high);
|
|
|
|
double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
|
|
for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
|
|
yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_example(seed);
|
|
}
|
|
printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_samples, num_samples));
|
|
|
|
// After the first nuclear collapse (antiinductive)
|
|
printf("\n## After the first nuclear collapse (antiinductive)\n");
|
|
ci ci_90_antiinductive = get_90_confidence_interval(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive, seed);
|
|
printf("90%% confidence interval: [%f, %f]\n", ci_90_antiinductive.low, ci_90_antiinductive.high);
|
|
|
|
double* yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples = malloc(sizeof(double) * num_samples);
|
|
for (int i = 0; i < num_samples; i++) {
|
|
yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples[i] = yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive(seed);
|
|
}
|
|
printf("mean: %f\n", array_mean(yearly_probability_nuclear_collapse_after_recovery_antiinductive_samples, num_samples));
|
|
|
|
free(seed);
|
|
}
|