#include "../../../squiggle.h" #include #include #include #include #define VERBOSE 0 double sample_loguniform(double a, double b, uint64_t* seed) { return exp(sample_uniform(log(a), log(b), seed)); } int main() { // Replicate , and in particular the red line in page 11. // Could also be interesting to just produce and save many samples. // set randomness seed uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t)); *seed = UINT64_MAX / 64; // xorshift can't start with a seed of 0 // Do this naïvely, without worrying that much about numerical precision double sample_fermi_naive(uint64_t * seed) { double rate_of_star_formation = sample_loguniform(1, 100, seed); double fraction_of_stars_with_planets = sample_loguniform(0.1, 1, seed); double number_of_habitable_planets_per_star_system = sample_loguniform(0.1, 1, seed); double rate_of_life_formation_in_habitable_planets = sample_lognormal(1, 50, seed); double fraction_of_habitable_planets_in_which_any_life_appears = -expm1(-rate_of_life_formation_in_habitable_planets); // double fraction_of_habitable_planets_in_which_any_life_appears = 1-exp(-rate_of_life_formation_in_habitable_planets); // but with more precision double fraction_of_planets_with_life_in_which_intelligent_life_appears = sample_loguniform(0.001, 1, seed); double fraction_of_intelligent_planets_which_are_detectable_as_such = sample_loguniform(0.01, 1, seed); double longevity_of_detectable_civilizations = sample_loguniform(100, 10000000000, seed); if(VERBOSE) printf(" rate_of_star_formation = %lf\n", rate_of_star_formation); if(VERBOSE) printf(" fraction_of_stars_with_planets = %lf\n", fraction_of_stars_with_planets); if(VERBOSE) printf(" number_of_habitable_planets_per_star_system = %lf\n", number_of_habitable_planets_per_star_system); if(VERBOSE) printf(" rate_of_life_formation_in_habitable_planets = %.16lf\n", rate_of_life_formation_in_habitable_planets); if(VERBOSE) printf(" fraction_of_habitable_planets_in_which_any_life_appears = %lf\n", fraction_of_habitable_planets_in_which_any_life_appears); if(VERBOSE) printf(" fraction_of_planets_with_life_in_which_intelligent_life_appears = %lf\n", fraction_of_planets_with_life_in_which_intelligent_life_appears); if(VERBOSE) printf(" fraction_of_intelligent_planets_which_are_detectable_as_such = %lf\n", fraction_of_intelligent_planets_which_are_detectable_as_such); if(VERBOSE) printf(" longevity_of_detectable_civilizations = %lf\n", longevity_of_detectable_civilizations); // Expected number of civilizations in the Milky way; // see footnote 3 (p. 5) double n = rate_of_star_formation * fraction_of_stars_with_planets * number_of_habitable_planets_per_star_system * fraction_of_habitable_planets_in_which_any_life_appears * fraction_of_planets_with_life_in_which_intelligent_life_appears * fraction_of_intelligent_planets_which_are_detectable_as_such * longevity_of_detectable_civilizations; return n; } double sample_are_we_alone_naive(uint64_t * seed) { double n = sample_fermi_naive(seed); return ((n > 1) ? 1 : 0); } double n = 1000000; double naive_fermi_proportion = 0; for (int i = 0; i < n; i++) { double result = sample_are_we_alone_naive(seed); if(VERBOSE) printf("result: %lf\n", result); naive_fermi_proportion += result; } printf("Naïve %% that we are not alone: %lf\n", naive_fermi_proportion / n); free(seed); /* double invert(double x){ return log(1-exp(-exp(-x))); } for(int i=0; i<64; i++){ double j = i; printf("for %lf, log(1-exp(-exp(-x))) is calculated as... %lf\n", j, invert(j)); } */ }