122 lines
9.7 KiB
Plaintext
122 lines
9.7 KiB
Plaintext
https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter
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https://www.augur.net/
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https://bravenewcoin.com/insights/augur-price-analysis-token-success-hinges-on-v2-release-in-june
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https://www.predictit.org/
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http://electionbettingodds.com/
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https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/Forecasting/electoral_college_predictit.png
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6238/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-Dec-31,-2020
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6265/Will-Trump-meet-with-Kim-Jong-Un-in-2020
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6237/Will-Nicol%C3%A1s-Maduro-be-president-of-Venezuela-on-Dec-31,-2020
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6674/Will-Kim-Jong-Un-be-Supreme-Leader-of-North-Korea-on-Dec-31
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6702/Will-a-federal-charge-against-Barack-Obama-be-confirmed-before-November-3
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3731/Will-Trump-switch-parties-by-Election-Day-2020
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4632/Will-Michelle-Obama-run-for-president-in-2020
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4614/Will-Hillary-Clinton-run-for-president-in-2020
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/2902/Will-the-2020-Democratic-nominee-for-president-be-a-woman
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https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/3633/Who-will-win-the-2020-Democratic-presidential-nomination
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https://electionbettingodds.com/
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https://ftx.com/
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https://www.replicationmarkets.com
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https://coronainformationmarkets.com/
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https://www.foretold.io/
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https://www.metaculus.com/
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https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4093/the-salk-tournament-for-coronavirus-sars-cov-2-vaccine-rd/
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https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4161/el-paso-series-supporting-covid-19-response-planning-in-a-mid-sized-city/
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https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4166/the-lightning-round-tournament-comparing-metaculus-forecasters-to-infectious-disease-experts/
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https://pandemic.metaculus.com/COVID-19/
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regular_expression
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregative_Contingent_Estimation_(ACE
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https://www.gjopen.com/
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1499-before-1-january-2021-will-the-people-s-liberation-army-pla-and-or-people-s-armed-police-pap-be-mobilized-in-hong-kong
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1495-will-the-winner-of-the-popular-vote-in-the-2020-united-states-presidential-election-also-win-the-electoral-college
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1498-will-benjamin-netanyahu-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-israel-before-1-january-2021
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1621-before-28-july-2020-will-saudi-arabia-announce-the-cancellation-or-suspension-of-the-hajj-pilgrimage-scheduled-for-28-july-2020-to-2-august-2020
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https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1551-will-formal-negotiations-between-russia-and-the-united-states-on-an-extension-modification-or-replacement-for-the-new-start-treaty-begin-before-1-october-2020
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https://goodjudgment.com/covidrecovery/
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https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1384
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https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1373
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https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1374
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https://goodjudgment.io/covid-recovery/#1363
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https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/philip-tetlock-tyler-cowen-forecasting-sociology-30401464b6d9
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https://www.cset-foretell.com/
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https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology
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https://www.scpr.org/news/2020/04/30/92263/in-forecasting-hurricane-dorian-models-fell-short/
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https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052019_Dorian.pdf
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https://nypost.com/2020/05/02/the-post-ranks-the-top-10-faces-in-new-york-sports-today/
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https://nypost.com/2020/05/03/pitfall-to-forecasting-top-10-faces-of-new-york-sports-right-now/
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https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/new-covid-19-relating-forecasting-tool-central-banks-2
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https://www.dairyfoods.com/articles/94319-noun%C3%B3s-creamery-uses-demand-forecasting-platform-to-improve-production-process
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https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/tackling-covid-19/nowcasting-and-forecasting-of-covid-19/
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2020/05/06/bmw-cuts-profit-forecast-again-and-warns-about-uncertainty/#2ac2be64468c
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/central-bankers-adopt-scenario-forecasting-for-post-virus-world
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https://www.research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2620/NOAA-teams-with-the-United-Nations-to-create-locust-tracking-application
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/13/east-africa-locust-forecast-tool/
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https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/publication/world-economic-situation-and-prospects-as-of-mid-2020/
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https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/5/2/21241261/coronavirus-modeling-us-deaths-ihme-pandemic
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https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/cdc-says-all-models-forecast-increase-in-covid-19-deaths-in-coming-weeks-exceeding-100k-by-june-1
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https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-forecasts-100000-coronavirus-deaths-by-june-1-2020-5?r=KINDLYSTOPTRACKINGUS
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/synovus-financial-corp-earnings-missed-152645825.html
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wienerberger-ag-earnings-missed-analyst-070545629.html
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https://news.yahoo.com/park-lawn-corporation-earnings-missed-120314826.html
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https://thegamehaus.com/sports/sports-betting-alternatives-which-are-booming-during-the-corona-shutdown/2020/05/15/
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-does-biden-stack-up-to-past-democratic-nominees/
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-can-pay-attention-to-those-trump-vs-biden-polls-but-be-cautious/
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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-time-for-another-2020-vice-presidential-draft/
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http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2012/07/politically-veepstakes-isnt-worth.html
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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/covid-forecasts/
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https://hbr.org/2020/05/why-economic-forecasting-is-so-difficult-in-the-pandemic
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https://phys.org/news/2020-05-storm-chasers-life-saving.html
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/05/19/lets-check-donald-trumps-chances-getting-reelected/
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https://www.ibm.com/products/planning-analytics
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https://www.channelasia.tech/article/679887/ibm-adds-ai-fuelled-forecasting-planning-analytics-platform/
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https://www.cio.com/article/3544611/ibm-adds-ai-fueled-forecasting-to-planning-analytics-platform.html
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https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/auditor-urges-more-oversight-better-forecasting-at-dot/19106691/
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https://calmatters.org/economy/2020/05/newsom-economic-forecast-criticism-california-model-recession-budget/
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fEX7G2N7CtmZQ3eB5/simulacra-and-subjectivity?commentId=FgajiMrSpY9MxTS8b
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https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/29/predictions-for-2020/
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gSdZjyFSky3d34ySh/slatestarcodex-2020-predictions-buy-sell-hold
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/orSNNCm77LiSEBovx/2020-predictions
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https://futureoflife.org/2020/04/30/on-superforecasting-with-robert-de-neufville/
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https://nonprophetspod.wordpress.com/
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https://constancecrozier.com/2020/04/16/forecasting-s-curves-is-hard/
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.03297.pdf
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https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018SW002109
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https://rwer.wordpress.com/2020/05/12/the-advantages-and-limitations-of-forecasting/
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https://patch.com/washington/seattle/uw-medicine-forecasting-losses-500-million-summers-end
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https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12913-020-05170-0
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https://www.bancaditalia.it/media/notizie/2020/en_Previsioni_al_tempo_del_coronavirus_Locarno_Zizza.pdf
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https://www.bancaditalia.it/media/notizia/forecasting-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/
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https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2020.1717329
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https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-05/ioap-ata051520.php
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https://twitter.com/davidmanheim
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https://twitter.com/PTetlock
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https://twitter.com/lukeprog/status/1262492767869009920
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https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1257857079756365824
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https://twitter.com/LinchZhang/status/1262127601176334336
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https://twitter.com/LinchZhang/status/1261427045977874432
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https://www.cato.org/publications/white-paper/12-new-immigration-ideas-21st-century
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https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/from-the-archives-1946-forecasting-the-world-s-weather-20200515-p54tfd.html
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https://www.moneyweb.co.za/investing/yes-it-is-possible-to-predict-the-market/
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Delbert_Gann#Controversy
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https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2463244
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https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/20/letter-forecasting-state-expenses-for-budget-is-always-a-best-guess/
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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/14561121/
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https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01282-z
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https://texasscorecard.com/local/austin-health-official-recommends-cancelling-all-2020-large-events-despite-unclear-forecasting/
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2020/05/22/misunderstanding-of-coronavirus-predictions-is-eerily-similar-to-weather-forecasting/#2f1288467f75
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http://www.walker.ac.uk/research/projects/pan-african-heatwave-health-hazard-forecasting/
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DAc4iuy4D3EiNBt9B/how-to-evaluate-50-predictions
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https://blog.cerebralab.com/Named%20Distributions%20as%20Artifacts
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https://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13423-015-0947-8
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https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/
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https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-63-no-4/Limits-of-Prediction.html
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ybYBCK9D7MZCcdArB/how-to-measure-anything
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https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/water/no-one-is-surprised-by-a-flood
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https://danluu.com/p95-skill/
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https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0410063
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QkX2bAkwG2EpGvNug/the-second-law-of-thermodynamics-and-engines-of-cognition
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https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7a79/28d5f133e4a274dcaec4d0a207daecde8068.pdf
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https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/Forecasting/AccuracyVsConfidence.png
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https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/07/kant_on_betting.html
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https://archive.org/
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