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| 3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com)   | ||||
| 4. [Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)   | ||||
| 5. [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)   | ||||
| 6. [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)   | ||||
| 7. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) &  [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)   | ||||
| 8. [Estimating Value](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/AbrRsXM2PrCrPShuZ) Sequence.  | ||||
| 9. [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)   | ||||
| 10. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Recent | ||||
| [Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting)   | ||||
| [External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki)   | ||||
| [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)   | ||||
| [Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9hQFfmbEiAoodstDA/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions)   | ||||
| [A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building)   | ||||
| [Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-october-2021)   | ||||
| [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)    | ||||
| [Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8XWi8FBkCuKfgPLMZ/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization)   | ||||
| [A quantification of a miliNazi](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/miliNazis)   | ||||
| [Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7utb4Fc9aPvM6SAEo/frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers)   | ||||
| [Forecasting Postmortem: The Fall of Kabul](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/postmortem-the-fall-of-kabul)   | ||||
| [US Military Global Information Dominance Experiments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vDvKWdCCNo9moNcMr/us-military-global-information-dominance-experiments)   | ||||
| [Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hugQzRhdGYc6ParJ/metaforecast-update-better-search-capture-functionality-more)   | ||||
| [Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11248)   | ||||
| [LongNowForMd: A tool for adding (a) for archive.org links to markdown files](https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd)   | ||||
| [Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xmmqDdGqNZq5RELer/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations)   | ||||
| [2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ps8ecFPBzSrkLC6ip/2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do)   | ||||
| [What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4mgBR5fwJ9AZeugZC/what-should-the-norms-around-privacy-and-evaluation-in-the)   | ||||
| [Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search)   | ||||
| [Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pqphZhx2nJocGCpwc/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners)   | ||||
| [Metaforecast: A search engine for probabilities](https://metaforecast.org/)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Effective Altruism & Rationality | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere)   | ||||
| [Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting)   | ||||
| [External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki)   | ||||
| [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)   | ||||
| [Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9hQFfmbEiAoodstDA/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions)   | ||||
| [A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building)   | ||||
| [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)   | ||||
| [Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8XWi8FBkCuKfgPLMZ/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization)   | ||||
| [Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7utb4Fc9aPvM6SAEo/frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers)   | ||||
| [A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/iRA4Dd2bfX9nukSo3/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates)   | ||||
| [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SCqRu6shoa8ySvRAa/big-list-of-cause-candidates)   | ||||
| [An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/udGBF8YWshCKwRKTp/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work)   | ||||
| [Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)   | ||||
| [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)   | ||||
| [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)   | ||||
| [Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH)   | ||||
| [Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)   | ||||
| [Thoughts on EA literature](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Bc8J5P938BmzBuL9Y/when-can-writing-fiction-change-the-world?commentId=RnEpvpozD5tEEsM9b)   | ||||
| [International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability)   | ||||
| [A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making)   | ||||
| [A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S3vAPRp2XQ9BdDbPz/a-glowing-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-poverty)  | ||||
| [[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)   | ||||
| [[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models)   | ||||
| [Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other misc.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and)   | ||||
| [Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals)   | ||||
| [Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples)   | ||||
| [EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ### [On LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/nunosempere)   | ||||
| [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World (Predict-O-Matic Problems)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)   | ||||
| [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WRqvohbWoq2wQkxKN/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)   | ||||
| [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)   | ||||
| [Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)   | ||||
| [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)   | ||||
| [AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ### Forecasting Newsletter | ||||
| [On Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/)   | ||||
| [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ### Elsewhere | ||||
| [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)   | ||||
| [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)   | ||||
| [Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html)   | ||||
| [Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment)   | ||||
| [Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html)   | ||||
| [100 predicciones](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/100-predicciones-en-100-dias.html) (es)  | ||||
| [A practical exercise in p-hacking](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/eamentalhealth/p-hacking.html)   | ||||
| [List of TAPs](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/list-of-taps.html)   | ||||
							
								
								
									
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| <!DOCTYPE HTML> | ||||
|   | ||||
| <meta charset="UTF-8"> | ||||
| <meta http-equiv="refresh" content="1; url=https://nunosempere.com"> | ||||
|   | ||||
| <script> | ||||
|   window.location.href = "https://nunosempere.com" | ||||
| </script> | ||||
|   | ||||
| <title>Page Redirection</title> | ||||
|   | ||||
| If you are not redirected automatically, follow the <a href='http://example.com'>link to example</a> | ||||
							
								
								
									
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| ### Deprecated | ||||
| [100 predicciones](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/100-predicciones-en-100-dias.html) (es)  | ||||
| [A practical exercise in p-hacking](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/eamentalhealth/p-hacking.html)   | ||||
| [List of TAPs](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/list-of-taps.html)   | ||||
| [List of Superpowers I want to steal](https://nunosempere.github.io/)   | ||||
| [Paradox Party](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/paradox-party.html)   | ||||
| [Crocker's rules](https://nunosempere.github.io/)   | ||||
| [¿Siempre lo supiste? El sesgo de retrospección](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es)   | ||||
| [From a dark arts practitioner](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/dark_arts.html)   | ||||
| [Dark Arts: Narrativomancy](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/narrativomancy.html)   | ||||
| [Consideraciones retreat Altruismo Efectivo Septiembre 2018](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/AE-retreat.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Different ideals than my own](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Different-Ideals.html)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Programming and Maths  | Programación y matemáticas | ||||
| [Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow)   | ||||
| [Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/MachineLearningDemystified/) (en, Python)   | ||||
| [Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/)   | ||||
| [AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html)   | ||||
| [Sobre el problema de las parejas estables](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://stable-marriage-problem/) (es)   | ||||
| [Programa de facturación](https://easyfirma.es) (es)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Humanities | Humanidades. | ||||
| [Apuntes de una charla: Diálogos con la cultura, de Remedios Zafra](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/remedios-zafra) (es)   | ||||
| [Mentir mola](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/mentir-mola.html ) (es)   | ||||
| [¿Qué es atracar un banco en comparación con fundar un banco?: Selección de citas de Brecht.](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/brecht.html) (es)   | ||||
| [La desmundanalización de la iglesia](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/catholic-church.html) (es)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## [Costumbrismo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costumbrismo) | ||||
| [Die Macht der Merkel](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/merkel.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Oh alemán, mi alemán](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/aleman) (es)   | ||||
| [Crónica de una gamberrada](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/gamberrada/index.html) (es)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Philosophy  | Filosofía.  | ||||
| [Monomito y Muchimito: Adiós a los principios, de Odo Marquard](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/marquard.html) (es)   | ||||
| [La nomenclatura no es conocimiento](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/nomenclatura.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Mucha granularidad sí, poca granularidad no](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/granularidad.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Falacia de la subsunción](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/subsuncion.html) (es)   | ||||
| [El concepto griego de verdad & Patologías de la razón](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/aletheia/index.html) (es)   | ||||
| [La paradoja del piano](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/piano.html) (es)   | ||||
| [¿Quién (no) mataría a su profesor de Últimas Tendencias del Arte?](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/arte.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Teorías de la cultura](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/cultura.html) (es)   | ||||
| [El evangelio según San Pedro](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/san-pedro.html) (es)   | ||||
| [El fetichismo del franquismo](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/franquismo.html) (es)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Language and Literature | Lenguaje y literatura.  | ||||
| [Análisis de "Yo persigo una forma que no encuentra mi estilo", de Rubén Darío](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/ruben-dario-yo-persigo-una-forma-que-no-encuentra-mi-estilo.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Q: Un programa para escribir y analizar poemas](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2020/12/q-un-programa-para-escribir-y-analizar-poemas-y-poesia.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Sinónimos de "fantástico" que empiecen por f](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/fantastico.html) (es)   | ||||
| [En tanto que de rosa y azucena](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/en-tanto-que-de-rosa-y-azucena.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Englicismos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/englicismos) (es)   | ||||
| [Juan Rulfo vs García Márquez](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/rulfo-garcia.html) (es)   | ||||
| [A buen entendedor, patada en los cojones](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/patada-en-los-cojones.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Teoría de la literatura](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/teoria-de-la-literatura.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Las tildes en español](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://tildes/index.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Términos retóricos](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/terminos-retoricos.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Algunas bonitas palabras en desuso](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/desuso.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/tesis/madurez) (es)   | ||||
| [Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote)](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit-fantastica.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Criba palabras](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://criba-de-palabras-Lucia/README.html) (es)   | ||||
| Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Fiction | Ficción | ||||
| [Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/nuno-nunez.html) (es)   | ||||
| [El Partido Carlista Antimonárquico Español](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/carlista.html) (es)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Written by others | ||||
| Claudia Lombardo [Biología para futuros presidentes](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/biologia-para-futuros-presidentes-parte.html) (es)   | ||||
| Lucía Trillo  [Thinking fast and slow](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/thinking-fast-and-slow.html) (es)   | ||||
| Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2016/10/freedom-regained-de-julian-baggini.html) (es)   | ||||
| 
 | ||||
| ## Miscellanea | Cajón de sastre. | ||||
| [A quantification of a miliNazi](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/miliNazis)   | ||||
| [Unfair chess](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/unfairchess.html)   | ||||
| [La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/inditex.html) (es)   | ||||
| [Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/letimotiv.html) (es)   | ||||
| [The Mask](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/The-Mask.html)   | ||||
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