From e3f3327e12e71a98ff489f8ac6012e26b86c20b7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Nu=C3=B1o=20Sempere?= Date: Thu, 20 Sep 2018 17:34:17 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] Update 100-predictions.md --- rat/100-predictions.md | 4 ++++ 1 file changed, 4 insertions(+) diff --git a/rat/100-predictions.md b/rat/100-predictions.md index 847e325..8df6d4b 100644 --- a/rat/100-predictions.md +++ b/rat/100-predictions.md @@ -27,6 +27,10 @@ Question: - What probability do you assign to ELisabeth the II dying before Juan Carlos the I? } +## Day 2 Discussion +In our group, probablities ranged from 4% (my own estimate) to 25%. I obtained my 6% figure going to (life tables)[https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables], and searching for life expectancies at 80 and 92 years old. I created a simplified model in which the queen of england was just an English peasant, ditto for the king of Spain. +With those tables in mind, it's relatively easy to calculate the probability that the queen will still ve alive in X years, and that the king will die in exactly X years. Multiplying both to get the probability of both events happening, and summing over all possible years, I arrive at a probability of 5,5575% for the statement under discussion. I adjust this upwards a little bit to 6%, because the queen seems healthier, the king broke his hip, and I'd guess the English Health system has better top notch doctors. If I really cared about the result, I might consider the rate of death not per year, but per week/month (interpolating those from the values at the beginning and end of each year), and would take into account rising life expectancies. + ## Hashes Everything between {} is hashed through SHA3-512 (https://www.browserling.com/tools/sha3-hash), and published on Twitter (@NunoSempere). This, of course means that corrections or notes can't be made.