From dd9bf6f298456f3fd07d05d795ff4a8041192224 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Nu=C3=B1o=20Sempere?= Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2018 13:03:49 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] Create Analysis.md --- rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md | 104 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 104 insertions(+) create mode 100644 rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md diff --git a/rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md b/rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..bd1b8f2 --- /dev/null +++ b/rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md @@ -0,0 +1,104 @@ +# Analysis of some predictions about the 2018 EA Survey + +## Introduction. +Some effective altruists made predictions about the 2018 EA Survey: a survey which aims to reach most people within the effective altruism movement. Here, I present the set up for the prediction making, the questions, and explain some judgement calls I made when judging the answers. Everything is written such that you can play along. + +## Set up +For every question, try to come up with an interval such that you're 80% confident the answer lies in it. If you use a search engine, the surveys from previous years are fair game. + +## Judgement call +In some cases, people didn't answer the question. For example, under the is.veg variable, you can have TRUE, FALSE, or NA: Not Available. If their number is respectively x, y and z, it might be a good first order approximation to estimate the actual proportion of vegetarians/vegans as x/(x+y). + +However, I've decided to be extremely anal about it, and choose to define the actual proportion of people who define as vegan as x/(x+y+z). This doesn't make much of a difference in the case of plant eating, but it does in the identity politics questions. + +## Questions + +1. How many people do you think will take the EA survey? + +1. What percent of people will say they got involved in EA in 2017? + +1. What percent of people will say they first heard about EA from a personal contact? + +1. What percent of people will say they first heard about EA from LessWrong? + +1. What percent of people will say they are involved in a local EA group? + +1. What percent of people will say they have taken the Giving What We Can pledge? + +1. What percent of people will say they find the EA community either welcoming or very welcoming? + +1. What percent of people will say they find the EA community either unwelcoming or very unwelcoming? + +1. What percent of people will say that global poverty should be the top or near top priority? + +1. What percent of people will say that cause prioritisation should be the top or near top priority? + +1. What percent of people will say that reducing risks from AI should be the top or near top priority? + +1. What percent of people will say that animal welfare/rights should be the top or near top priority? + +1. What percent of people will say that meta charities should be the top or near top priority? + +1. What percent of people who took the survey will be between 20 and 35 years of age? + +1. What percent of people will identify as male? + +1. What percent of people will identify as white? + +1. What percent of people will say they live in the US or UK? + +1. What percent of people will say they live in continental Europe? + +1. What percent of people will say they are atheist, agnostic or non-religious? + +1. What percent of people will say they are vegan or vegetarian? + +1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the left or centre left? + +1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the centre? + +1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the right or centre right? + +1. What percent of people will say that they are single? + +1. What percent of people will say that they are employed? + +1. What percent of people will say that they are a student? + +## Answers +1. 22.20943613 +1. 33.17990027 +1. 11.73762946 +1. 15.53509781 +1. 25.77675489 +1. 59.37859609 +1. 4.75642501 +1. 61.33486766 +1. 41.46528577 +1. 44.1503644 +1. 35.28960491 +1. 34.06214039 +1. NA +1. 59.76217875 +1. 78.17414653 +1. 52.35903337 +1. NA +1. 72.0751822 +1. 38.43498274 +1. 60.98964327 +1. 8.630609896 +1. 2.685078634 +1. 35.82662064 +1. 52.5508247 +1. 26.50556195 + +## Calibration results +For the 35 people who took part in the original prediction making, their results can be seen in the following graphics: + +![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/Scatterplot.jpeg) +![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/Scatterplot2.jpeg) +![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/histogram.jpeg) +![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/Brier-scores.jpeg) + +The average accuracy is 55.12% (i.e., the average participant got 13.22 out of 24 questions right). +