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+# Analysis of some predictions about the 2018 EA Survey
+
+## Introduction.
+Some effective altruists made predictions about the 2018 EA Survey: a survey which aims to reach most people within the effective altruism movement. Here, I present the set up for the prediction making, the questions, and explain some judgement calls I made when judging the answers. Everything is written such that you can play along.
+
+## Set up
+For every question, try to come up with an interval such that you're 80% confident the answer lies in it. If you use a search engine, the surveys from previous years are fair game.
+
+## Judgement call
+In some cases, people didn't answer the question. For example, under the is.veg variable, you can have TRUE, FALSE, or NA: Not Available. If their number is respectively x, y and z, it might be a good first order approximation to estimate the actual proportion of vegetarians/vegans as x/(x+y).
+
+However, I've decided to be extremely anal about it, and choose to define the actual proportion of people who define as vegan as x/(x+y+z). This doesn't make much of a difference in the case of plant eating, but it does in the identity politics questions.
+
+## Questions
+
+1. How many people do you think will take the EA survey?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they got involved in EA in 2017?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they first heard about EA from a personal contact?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they first heard about EA from LessWrong?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they are involved in a local EA group?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they have taken the Giving What We Can pledge?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they find the EA community either welcoming or very welcoming?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they find the EA community either unwelcoming or very unwelcoming?
+
+1. What percent of people will say that global poverty should be the top or near top priority?
+
+1. What percent of people will say that cause prioritisation should be the top or near top priority?
+
+1. What percent of people will say that reducing risks from AI should be the top or near top priority?
+
+1. What percent of people will say that animal welfare/rights should be the top or near top priority?
+
+1. What percent of people will say that meta charities should be the top or near top priority?
+
+1. What percent of people who took the survey will be between 20 and 35 years of age?
+
+1. What percent of people will identify as male?
+
+1. What percent of people will identify as white?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they live in the US or UK?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they live in continental Europe?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they are atheist, agnostic or non-religious?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they are vegan or vegetarian?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the left or centre left?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the centre?
+
+1. What percent of people will say they are politically on the right or centre right?
+
+1. What percent of people will say that they are single?
+
+1. What percent of people will say that they are employed?
+
+1. What percent of people will say that they are a student?
+
+## Answers
+1. 22.20943613
+1. 33.17990027
+1. 11.73762946
+1. 15.53509781
+1. 25.77675489
+1. 59.37859609
+1. 4.75642501
+1. 61.33486766
+1. 41.46528577
+1. 44.1503644
+1. 35.28960491
+1. 34.06214039
+1. NA
+1. 59.76217875
+1. 78.17414653
+1. 52.35903337
+1. NA
+1. 72.0751822
+1. 38.43498274
+1. 60.98964327
+1. 8.630609896
+1. 2.685078634
+1. 35.82662064
+1. 52.5508247
+1. 26.50556195
+
+## Calibration results
+For the 35 people who took part in the original prediction making, their results can be seen in the following graphics:
+
+![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/Scatterplot.jpeg)
+![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/Scatterplot2.jpeg)
+![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/histogram.jpeg)
+![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/Brier-scores.jpeg)
+
+The average accuracy is 55.12% (i.e., the average participant got 13.22 out of 24 questions right).
+