diff --git a/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md b/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md index 6093bb0..4f61c6d 100644 --- a/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md +++ b/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md @@ -92,4 +92,4 @@ Of the questions which have been added recently, the crowd [doesn't buy](https:/ - [Zvi on Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BthNiWJDagLuf2LN2/evaluating-predictions-in-hindsight). A fun read. Of course, the dissing of Scott Alexander's prediction is fun to read, but I really want to see how a list of Zvi's predictions fares. - An oldie related to the upcoming US elections: [Which Economic Indicators Best Predict Presidential Elections?](https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/which-economic-indicators-best-predict-presidential-elections/), from 2011's Nate Silver. - [A cool comment exchange at GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/1018771) in which cool superforecaster @Anneinak shares some pointers. -- [As the efficient markets hypothesis turns 50, it is time to bin it](https://www.ft.com/content/dbf88254-22af-11ea-b8a1-584213ee7b2b) for a Financial Times article, from Jan 1st and thus untainted by coronavirus discussion. Related: [This LW comment by Wei Dai](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jAixPHwn5bmSLXiMZ/open-and-welcome-thread-february-2020?commentId=a9YCk3ZtpQZCDqeqR#wAHCXmnywzfhoQT9c) and [this tweet](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1233174331133284353) from Eliezer Yudkowsky. See also a very rambly article by an Australian neswpaper: [Pandemic highlights problems with efficient-market hypothesis](https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/pandemic-highlights-problems-with-efficient-market-hypothesis,13776): +- [As the efficient markets hypothesis turns 50, it is time to bin it](https://www.ft.com/content/dbf88254-22af-11ea-b8a1-584213ee7b2b) for a Financial Times article, from Jan 1st and thus untainted by coronavirus discussion. Related: [This LW comment by Wei Dai](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jAixPHwn5bmSLXiMZ/open-and-welcome-thread-february-2020?commentId=a9YCk3ZtpQZCDqeqR#wAHCXmnywzfhoQT9c) and [this tweet](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1233174331133284353) from Eliezer Yudkowsky. See also a very rambly article by an Australian neswpaper: [Pandemic highlights problems with efficient-market hypothesis](https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/pandemic-highlights-problems-with-efficient-market-hypothesis,13776).