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Added list of forecasting projects

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Nuno Sempere 2020-09-29 16:59:10 +02:00
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# List of forecasting projects:
- Have forecasters read Toby Ord's book, and generate their own probabilities of x-risks
- Feed forecasted x-risk probabilities, in addition to some other inputs which could also be forecasted, to Trammel's model on patient philantropists, to find out what the optimal spending conditions for a patient philantropist would be. Right now, some of the inputs to Trammel's model are very much up in the air.
- Forecast whether some big companies will keep to their chicken broiler / animal suffering commitments; this would be useful for some orgs to prioritize their outreach.
- Forecast the value of altruistic projects; I (Nuño) have a small demo on this.
- Throw some optimization power at the Metaculus Ragnarok questions
- Look into the relationship between price or time spent and forecast accuracy
- Look into rewarding forecasters according to their Shapley values
- Predict which EA Fund applications will be funded
- Add interesting and nontrivial markets to Augur.
- Rapid Response EA Forecasting Hotline
- Forecast incubator ideas' likelihood of success
- Create a calibration hall of fame/shame for researchers' past forecasts
- Case studies / lessons learned on forecasting
- Pay and support forecasters to make forecasts on existing platforms
- Get a visible forecasting win for EA/QURI/EpiFor
- Participate in an OSINT project
- Suggest questions to Good Judgement Open with an altruistic bent. It is not unusual for GJOpen to accept question suggestions.
- Talk with CSET; they seem a little bit confused/lost.
- Recruit people for CSET; they need more forecasters to be able to produce useful policy feedback
- Forecasting for EA policy advocates
- Estimate the value of the forecasted variables/questions on Metaculus and GJP
- On-demand forecasting to research teams
- Write down lessons learnt from EpidemicForecasting
- Foretold consulting/training