From 8936917311bc1af10008118862eeda0aae138d8a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Nu=C3=B1o=20Sempere?= Date: Sat, 10 Nov 2018 13:13:42 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] Update Analysis.md --- rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md | 4 +++- 1 file changed, 3 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md b/rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md index bd1b8f2..5d9988e 100644 --- a/rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md +++ b/rat/EA-predictions/Analysis.md @@ -100,5 +100,7 @@ For the 35 people who took part in the original prediction making, their results ![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/histogram.jpeg) ![](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/EA-predictions/Brier-scores.jpeg) -The average accuracy is 55.12% (i.e., the average participant got 13.22 out of 24 questions right). +The average accuracy is 55.12%, that is, the average participant got 13.22 out of 24 questions right. If it had been reached, a target credence of 80% would imply an average of 19.2 correct answers. In other words, in this limited domain, when these people say 80%, the thing happens 55% of the time. If they bet, they'd replace ~1:1 bets with 1:4 bets. + +