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Technology,URL,URL2,L1,L1.a,L1.b,L2,L3-a,L3-b,L3-c,L4,L4.a,L5,L5.a,L6,L6.a,L7,L7.a,L8,L9,Comments,Is there plausibly a discontinuity,Size of the (plausible) discontinuity,Discontinuity at the beginning of the technology?
History of aviation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_aviation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_aviation,-630,-630,NA,1810,1783,1783,1783,1783,1949,1909,1949,1922,1949,1969,NA,1965,1958,Early pioneers were recklessly insane. The Wright brothers were a discontinuity.,"Yes. With the Wright brothers, who were more analytical and capable than any before them. ",Big,No
History of ceramics,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceramic,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pottery#History; http://www.vam.ac.uk/content/articles/m/masterpieces-of-ceramics-timeline/,-29000,NA,29000,1939,NA,-29000,NA,-29000,-29000,NA,1650,-460,1850,1300,1850,NA,NA,"Where by “ceramic” I mostly mean pottery.
In the Chalcolithic period in Mesopotamia, Halafian pottery achieved a level of technical competence and sophistication, not seen until the later developments of Greek pottery with Corinthian and Attic ware.
Hinduism discourages eating off pottery
Pottery was hardly seen on the tables of elites from Hellenistic times until the Renaissance, and most medieval wares were coarse and utilitarian, as the elites ate off metal vessels. Imports from Asia revived interest in fine pottery, which European manufacturers eventually learned to make, and from the 18th century European porcelain and other wares from a great number of producers became extremely popular.
The Indigenous Australians never developed pottery.[80] After Europeans came to Australia and settled, they found deposits of clay which were analysed by English potters as excellent for making pottery. Less than 20 years later, Europeans came to Australia and began creating pottery. Since then, ceramic manufacturing, mass-produced pottery and studio pottery have flourished in Australia.
Pretty good by -460; see http://www.vam.ac.uk/content/articles/m/masterpieces-of-ceramics-timeline/
Really good by the 1300s.
When was glazing invented?
- Sooner, but by the 1300s it was refined.",Probably not.,,
History of cryptography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cryptography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_cryptography,NA,NA,NA,1883,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1553,1553,1917,1917,1977,1977,1991,NA,"Some technologies don't easily lend themselves to being ranked on an absolute scale. For example, it seems more natural to rank military technology, or cryptography by comparison to the code-breaking capabilities of their age, rather than on an absolute scale. Still.",Yes. Plausibly with the invention of the one-time pad.,Medium,No
History of cycling,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_bicycle,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cycling; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny-farthing; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocipede#Boneshaker
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_bicycle#History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dandy_horse",1817,NA,1817,NA,NA,1817,1819,,,,,,,1885,,,,,"Yes. With its invention. The dandy horse (immediate antecessor to the bicycle) was invented in a period where there were few horses, but it could in principle have been invented much earlier, and it enabled humans to go much faster.",Small,Yes
History of film,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_film; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetoscope,https://www.infoplease.com/arts-entertainment/movies-and-videos/movie-timeline,1872,NA,1872,NA,1872,1877,1878,1894,1894,1902,1902,1915,1915,1954,1954,1915,1900,"Computer effects be just an afterthought. Difficult to separate films from earlier technologies, such as flipbooks. Chaplin films be entertaining.",Probably not.,,
History of furniture,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furniture,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chair#History,-30000,NA,-30000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-30000,-30000,-3100,1880,NA,NA,NA,NA,-30000,NA,"Chairs are relatively recent! It was not until the 16th century that chairs became common.[11] Until then, people sat on chests, benches, and stools, which were the ordinary seats of everyday life. The number of chairs which have survived from an earlier date is exceedingly limited; most examples are of ecclesiastical, seigneurial or feudal origin","Maybe. Maybe with the invention of the chair. Maybe with the Industrial Revolution. Maybe in recent history with invention of more and more comfy models of chairs (e.g., bean bags)",Small,No
History of glass.,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_glass,NA,-3600,NA,-3600,NA,NA,NA,NA,-3600,1887,100,1887,1000,1960,1400,NA,1000,NA,"“The logic performed by telephone switching relays was the inspiration for the digital computer. The first commercially successful glass bottle blowing machine was an automatic model introduced in 1905.[42] The machine, operated by a two-man crew working 12-hour shifts, could produce 17,280 bottles in 24 hours, compared to 2,880 bottles made by a crew of six men and boys working in a shop for a day. The cost of making bottles by machine was 10 to 12 cents per gross compared to $1.80 per gross by the manual glassblowers and helpers.”",Yes. In cheapness and speed with the industrial revolution,Medium,No
Nuclear history,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_nuclear_weapons,NA,1914,1914,1924,1934,1939,1945,NA,1945,NA,1945,NA,1945,NA,1952,NA,1964,1945,NA,"Yes. Both with the explosion of the first nuclear weapon, and with the explosion of the (more powerful) hydrogen bomb",Big,Yes
History of the petroleum industry,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_petroleum_industry#,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphalt,-2000,NA,-2000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-2000,-2000,762,762,1860,1900,1950,1950,1950,1900,"Petroleum was used in antiquity as asphalt, and in China as fuel as well.","Yes. Petroleum had been used since ancient times, but it took off starting in ~1850",Big,No
History of photography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_photography,NA,1719,1760,1719,NA,NA,NA,NA,1839,1900,1860,1900,1900,1925,1963,1980,1860,1930,"Other links: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/oldest-pictures-in-american-history; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_photography_technology; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_photography . It's really frustrating that when searching the history of cameras, photos of said cameras abound, but not photos taken *by* them.",Probably not.,,No
History of printing,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_printing,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_printing,-1000,NA,-1000,NA,NA,NA,NA,955,2000,1455,2000,1455,2000,1851,2000,1600,1520,I'm surprised that the press wasn't invented by Gutemberg. Ambiguities as to when printing became cheap; one could buy a printer for 100 bucks in the 2000s.,Yes. With Gutenberg. Hardware overhang from having used printing for a more difficult problem: Chinese characters vs latin alphabet,Big,No
History of rail transport,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rail_transport#Ancient_systems,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diolkos,-600,NA,-600,NA,NA,NA,NA,1550,NA,1550,1784,1914,1930,1964,NA,1930,1880,NA,"Yes. With the introduction of iron, then (Bessemer process) steel over wood, and the introduction of steam engines over horses. Great expansion during the Industrial Revolution.",Medium,No
History of robotics,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_robots#1900s,NA,-1600,NA,-1600,1948,NA,NA,NA,-222,1980,1997,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1750,1952,"Progress was made in the 20th and early 21st centuries, but, in an absolute sense, they’re not “pretty good” yet.",Maybe. But the 18th-21st centuries saw more progress than the rest combined. ,Small,No
History of spaceflight,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_spaceflight,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verein_f%C3%BCr_Raumschiffahrt,1865,1865,NA,1903,1927,1944,1957,1957,NA,1969,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1957,"Note that historical development of capabilities isn’t linear, i.e., knowhow was lost after the Apolo programme.",Yes. With the beginning of the space race. ,Big,Yes
History of water supply and sanitation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_water_supply_and_sanitation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_water_supply_and_sanitation_by_country,-3000,NA,-3000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-3000,-3000,1000,1000,1900,1900,1950,1950,NA,NA,"History highly nonlinear, i.e., Roman t aqueducts were not improved upon during the Middle ages. Also, each of the major cultural theaters kind of did their own thing. Further, access to water supply is still one of the Sustainable Development Goals. That is, countries such as Afghanistan don’t really have universally good water supply. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goals","Yes. With the Industrial revolution and the push starting in the, say, 1850s to get sanitation in order (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Activated_sludge); the discovery/invention of activated sludge might also be another discontinuity. But I’d say it’s mostly the “let us, as a civilization, get our house in order” impulse that led to these inventions. ",Medium,No
History of rockets,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rockets,NA,969,NA,969,1687,NA,NA,NA,969,NA,1792,NA,1943,NA,1969,NA,1815,1792,"Difficult to judge the adequacy of military technology, because it is always dependent on the capabilities of the enemy. Note that the Wikpedia-category of rocket isn’t well defined, and includes both fire arrows and space rockets. ","Yes. With Hale rockets, whose spinning made them more accurate. Then with de Laval nozzles (hypersonic rockets; went from 2% to 64% efficiency). Then plausibly with Germany’s V2 rocket (the German missile program costed levels comparable to the Manhattan project). ",Big,No
History of artificial life,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_life,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_life
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology#Synthetic_life
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hachimoji_DNA#Description
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XDNA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xeno_nucleic_acid
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoplasma_laboratorium",NA,NA,NA,1948,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"Two/three branches to artificial life: soft (program), hard (a robot, automata) and wet. That is, either trying to manipulate or do something similar to the biological life we know, or trying to program it.",Probably not.,,
History of calendars,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_calendars,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unix_time,NA,NA,NA,1079,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1793,1793,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"Calendars are terrible. All I want is a unix epoch calendar without leap seconds in the style of the French revolution calendar (i.e., fractional time makes sense:: 1.4312h = 1h 43min 12secs). Leap seconds are the invention of the devil. “the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.”","Probably not. Maybe with the Khayyam calendar reform in 1079 in the Persian calendar, but it seems too precise to be true. “Because months were computed based on precise times of solar transit between zodiacal regions, seasonal drift never exceeded one day, and also there was no need for a leap year in the Jalali calendar. [...] However, the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.”",,
History of candle making,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_candle_making#Middle_Ages,NA,-500,NA,-500,NA,NA,NA,NA,-500,NA,-500,NA,1750,1834,1850,1875,NA,NA,"I truth, candle-making is too general a category; almost as general as “burning things to produce light”.","Yes. With industrialization: “The manufacture of candles became an industrialised mass market in the mid 19th century. In 1834, Joseph Morgan, a pewterer from Manchester, England, patented a machine that revolutionised candle making. It allowed for continuous production of molded candles by using a cylinder with a moveable piston to eject candles as they solidified. This more efficient mechanized production produced about 1,500 candles per hour, (according to his patent "". . with three men and five boys [the machine] will manufacture two tons of candle in twelve hours""). This allowed candles to become an easily affordable commodity for the masses”",Small,No
History of chromatography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_chromatography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromatography#History,1855,NA,1855,NA,NA,NA,NA,1952,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1950,1952,The field is pretty unknown to me.,"Probably not. Any of the new types could have been one, though.",,
Chronology of bladed weapons,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_bladed_weapons#Bronze_Swords,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c94vhjGsC8M,-1700,NA,-1700,NA,NA,NA,NA,-600,NA,-216,802,NA,NA,1233,NA,NA,NA,The field is pretty unknown to me. ,Probably not. Though the Spanish tercios were probably discontinuous,,
History of condoms,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_condoms,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._One_Package_of_Japanese_Pessaries,1564,NA,1564,NA,NA,NA,NA,1564,1940,1940,1940,1957,1957,NA,NA,1960,1564,NA,Probably not,,
History of the diesel car,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_diesel_car,1878,NA,1878,1895,1878,1895,1929,1929,NA,1935,NA,1986,NA,NA,NA,2000,NA,Half-way category error; the more natural thing may have been “history of the diesel *engine*. ,Yes. In terms of efficiency: the diesel engine’s point is much more efficient than the gasoline engine.,Medium,No
History of hearing aids,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hearing_aids,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ear_trumpet,1634,NA,1634,NA,NA,NA,NA,1634,NA,1850,NA,1920,NA,1985,NA,1850,NA,NA,Probably not,,
History of aluminium,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#History,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_aluminium,-500,NA,-500,1797,1530,1824,1856,1856,1950,1900,1950,1900,1950,1950,NA,1950,1957,"L3 fields refer to the refinement, rather than to the creation of Aluminium.",Yes. With the Bayer + Hall–Héroult processes in terms of cheapness.,Big,No
History of automation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automation#History,NA,-270,NA,-270,1868,NA,NA,NA,1788,NA,1905,NA,1960,NA,NA,NA,1975,NA,"Field unfamiliar to me. Also, field which generates discontinuities in other fields.","Maybe. If so, with controllers in the 1900s, or with the switch to digital in the 1960s. Kiva systems, used by Amazon, also seems to be substantially better than the competition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Robotics",Medium,No
History of radar,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radar#Significance,NA,1887,NA,1887,1862,NA,NA,NA,1935,NA,1941,NA,1941,NA,1941,NA,1980,1945,"Developed extremely fast simultaneously by different countries during WWII, in relative secrecy",Yes. Development was extremely fast during the war.,Big,No
History of radio,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radio,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invention_of_radio,1892,NA,1892,1865,1890,1894,1894,1903,1955,1903,1955,1920,1955,1960,1960,1955,1915,NA,"Yes. The first maybe discontinuity was with Marconi realizing the potential of electromagnetic waves for communication, and his superior commercialization. The second discontinuity was a discontinuity in price as vacuum tubes were replaced with transistors, making radios much more affordable.",Big,No
History of sound recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_sound_recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_audio_formats,1853,NA,1853,1877,NA,NA,NA,1896,1979,1925,1979,1930,1979,1966,1999,1979,1940,"Unclear when the physics of sound where first rigorously understood. I'm also putting the Walkman as the first cheap product, and Napster as the first cheap and great instance.","Maybe. There were different eras, and any of them could have had a discontinuity. For example, magnetic tape recordings were much better than previous technologies",Small,No
History of submarines,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_submarines,NA,NA,NA,-415,NA,NA,NA,NA,1690,NA,1864,NA,1888,NA,1955,NA,1900,1864,NA,"Yes. Drebbel's submarine ""seemed beyond conventional expectations of what science was thought to have been capable of at the time."" It also seems likely that development was sped up during major conflicts (American Civil War, WW1, WW2, Cold War)",Small,No
History of television,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_television,https://www.timetoast.com/timelines/the-evolution-of-televisions,1884,NA,1884,NA,NA,1908,NA,1922,1960,1955,1960,1980,2000,NA,NA,1960,1945,NA,"Maybe. Work on television was banned during WW2 and picked up faster afterwards. Perhaps with the super-Emitron in the 1930s (“The super-Emitron was between ten and fifteen times more sensitive than the original Emitron and iconoscope tubes and, in some cases, this ratio was considerably greater”)",Medium,No
History of the automobile,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_motor_and_engine_technology,1672,NA,1672,1824,NA,NA,NA,1886,1908,1908,1908,1938,1938,NA,NA,1908,1914,Ford's automation was a discontinuity,"Yes. In speed of production with Ford. Afterwards maybe with the Japanese (i.e., Toyota)",Big,No
History of the battery,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_battery,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_battery_types,1749,NA,1749,NA,1749,1749,1791,1800,NA,1960,NA,1980,NA,NA,NA,1920,NA,NA,"Maybe. There have been many types of batteries throughout history, each with different tradeoffs. For example, higher voltage and more consistent current at the expense of greater fragility, like the Poggendorff cell. Or the Grove cell, which offered higher current and voltage, at the expense of being more expensive and giving off poisonous nitric oxide fumes. Or the lithium-ion cell, which seems to just have been better, gotten its inventor a Nobel Price, and shows a pretty big jump in terms of, say, voltage. ",Small,No
History of the telephone,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_telephone,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_telephone,1667,NA,1667,NA,1667,1667,1871,1877,1960,1877,1960,1915,1960,1970,1970,1960,NA,NA,"Probably not. If so, maybe with the invention of the automatic switchboard.",,
History of the transistor,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_transistor,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_MOSFET#History
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipolar_junction_transistor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triode
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrode
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer",1925,NA,1925,1947,1925,1947,1947,1953,1953,1969,1977,1975,1990,1990,2000,1957,1957,"Unclear where the boundaries of the concept are; i.e., triodes and other amplifiers serve similar functions","Maybe. Probably with the invention of the MOSFET; the first transistor which could be used to create integrated circuits, and which started Moore’s law. ",Big,No
History of the internal combustion engine,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_internal_combustion_engine,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Morland
https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a19854205/the-evolution-of-the-combustion-engine/",1660,NA,1660,1824,1671,1794,1807,1823,NA,1886,NA,1939,NA,1955,NA,1900,NA,NA,"Probably not. If so, jet engines. ",,
History of manufactured fuel gases,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_manufactured_fuel_gases,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1789,1794,1801,1803,1826,1812,1826,1870,NA,NA,NA,1826,NA,NA,Probably not.,,
History of perpetual motion machines,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_perpetual_motion_machines,NA,750,NA,750,1912,1150,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"No. None of them work, but I’m a fan of Cox's timepiece (uses variations in atmospheric pressure), and Brownian rachets. ",No.,,
History of the motorcycle,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_motorcycle,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_and_motorcycle_dynamics,1867,NA,1867,NA,NA,NA,NA,1884,1946,1915,1946,1923,1946,NA,NA,1915,NA,NA,"Probably not. If there is, perhaps in price for the first Vespa in 1946",,
History of multitrack recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_multitrack_recording,http://raymondscott.blogspot.com/2009/08/les-paul-raymond-scott.html,1881,NA,1881,NA,NA,NA,NA,1950,1990,1964,1990,1967,1995,1970,2000,1955,NA,NA,Maybe. It is possible that Les Paul’s experimenting was sufficiently radical to be a discontinuity.,Small,Yes
History of nanotechnology,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_nanotechnology,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multigate_device#GAAFET
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_force_microscopy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Applications_of_nanotechnology",1959,NA,1959,1981,1960,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1981,Technology hasn’t even gotten started,Probably not,,
Oscilloscope history,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscilloscope_history,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tektronix
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathkit
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscilloscope
https://books.google.at/books?id=Ac5iYqHCcucC&pg=PA165&lpg=PA165&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false",1884,NA,1884,NA,NA,NA,NA,1899,1947,1931,1947,1961,NA,1990,NA,1930,1945,I’m particularly unsure about this technology; my intuitive mapping from reading about the topic to “how good was this at this date” feels particularly thin. ,"Probably not. However, there were many advances in the last century, and any of them could have been one. ",,
History of paper,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_paper,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_paper
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paper_wasp",-179,NA,-179,105,NA,NA,NA,-179,1900,200,1900,NA,1900,NA,1900,1500,105,NA,Maybe. Maybe with Cai Lun at the beginning. Probably with the industrial revolution and the introduction of wood pulp w/r to cheapness.,Small,No
History of polymerase chain reaction,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_polymerase_chain_reaction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUBJtHwHASA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis",1971,NA,1971,1983,1957,1971,1984,1986,NA,1986,NA,1986,NA,1986,NA,1990,1986,Some ambiguities and fights about the “true inventor”,"Yes. Polymerase chain reaction *is* the discontinuity; a revolutionary new technology. It enabled many new other technologies, like DNA evidence in trials, HIV tests, analysis of ancient DNA, etc. ",Big,Yes
History of the portable gas stove,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_portable_gas_stove,NA,1929,NA,1929,NA,NA,NA,1932,1934,1936,1934,1936,1934,1936,NA,NA,1936,NA,"“Unfortunately Lafares design, however brilliant, was not enough to stop the German ranks marching over his homeland in 1940 after only 6 weeks. The majority of réchaud de gaz de dirigeant were melted down into what can only be assumed as scrap metal for the German war machine. However, from Jeu Lafare's stove the idea was adapted in various forms around the world during World War II and afterwards.”",Probably not,,
History of the roller coaster,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_roller_coaster#History,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Mountains
https://www.britannica.com/topic/roller-coaster#ref910739",1784,NA,1784,NA,NA,NA,NA,1817,1845,1817,1845,1925,1959,1975,1975,1930,NA,Encyclopedia Britannica mentions precursors from the 15th century. Unclear if this is an error,Probably not,,
History of the steam engine,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_steam_engine,"http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/PlainTextHistories.asp?ParagraphID=afq1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_turbine",100,NA,100,NA,1551,1663,1698,1775,NA,1775,NA,1804,NA,1850,NA,1775,1775,I’m unclear on how large the improvement was from one type of engine to the next. Also interesting how Watt delayed the adoption of high pressure engine because he felt they were too dangerous and prone to explode (they were),Maybe. The Newcomen engine put together various disparate already existing elements to create something new. Watt’s various improvements also seem dramatic. Unclear abou the others.,Medium,No
History of the telescope,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_telescope,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reading_stone,1608,NA,1608,1754,NA,1608,1608,1609,NA,1758,NA,1990,NA,NA,NA,1700,1632,NA,"Maybe. If so, maybe after the serendipitous invention/discovery of radio telescopy",Small,No
History of timekeeping devices,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_timekeeping_devices#Pocket_watch,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_clock#Persia
",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,-2000,-2000,1100,1930,1750,1930,1927,1975,NA,NA,I’m unclear how expensive a clock was before the industrial revolution,"Maybe. Plausibly with the industrial revolution in terms of cheapness, then with quartz clocks, then with atomic clocks in terms of precision. ",Medium,No
History of wind power,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Early_Middle_Ages,NA,-5500,NA,-5500,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,800,NA,1930,NA,NA,NA,1930,1973,"Bias against old technology with unclear descriptions (i.e., non-European)","Maybe. If there is, maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Danish_development Tvindcraft",Small,No
1 Technology URL URL2 L1 L1.a L1.b L2 L3-a L3-b L3-c L4 L4.a L5 L5.a L6 L6.a L7 L7.a L8 L9 Comments Is there plausibly a discontinuity Size of the (plausible) discontinuity Discontinuity at the beginning of the technology?
2 History of aviation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_aviation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_aviation -630 -630 NA 1810 1783 1783 1783 1783 1949 1909 1949 1922 1949 1969 NA 1965 1958 Early pioneers were recklessly insane. The Wright brothers were a discontinuity. Yes. With the Wright brothers, who were more analytical and capable than any before them. Big No
3 History of ceramics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceramic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pottery#History; http://www.vam.ac.uk/content/articles/m/masterpieces-of-ceramics-timeline/ -29000 NA 29000 1939 NA -29000 NA -29000 -29000 NA 1650 -460 1850 1300 1850 NA NA Where by “ceramic” I mostly mean pottery. In the Chalcolithic period in Mesopotamia, Halafian pottery achieved a level of technical competence and sophistication, not seen until the later developments of Greek pottery with Corinthian and Attic ware. Hinduism discourages eating off pottery Pottery was hardly seen on the tables of elites from Hellenistic times until the Renaissance, and most medieval wares were coarse and utilitarian, as the elites ate off metal vessels. Imports from Asia revived interest in fine pottery, which European manufacturers eventually learned to make, and from the 18th century European porcelain and other wares from a great number of producers became extremely popular. The Indigenous Australians never developed pottery.[80] After Europeans came to Australia and settled, they found deposits of clay which were analysed by English potters as excellent for making pottery. Less than 20 years later, Europeans came to Australia and began creating pottery. Since then, ceramic manufacturing, mass-produced pottery and studio pottery have flourished in Australia. Pretty good by -460; see http://www.vam.ac.uk/content/articles/m/masterpieces-of-ceramics-timeline/ Really good by the 1300s. When was glazing invented? - Sooner, but by the 1300s it was refined. Probably not.
4 History of cryptography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cryptography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_cryptography NA NA NA 1883 NA NA NA NA NA 1553 1553 1917 1917 1977 1977 1991 NA Some technologies don't easily lend themselves to being ranked on an absolute scale. For example, it seems more natural to rank military technology, or cryptography by comparison to the code-breaking capabilities of their age, rather than on an absolute scale. Still. Yes. Plausibly with the invention of the one-time pad. Medium No
5 History of cycling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_bicycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cycling; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny-farthing; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocipede#Boneshaker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_bicycle#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dandy_horse 1817 NA 1817 NA NA 1817 1819 1885 Yes. With its invention. The dandy horse (immediate antecessor to the bicycle) was invented in a period where there were few horses, but it could in principle have been invented much earlier, and it enabled humans to go much faster. Small Yes
6 History of film https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_film; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetoscope https://www.infoplease.com/arts-entertainment/movies-and-videos/movie-timeline 1872 NA 1872 NA 1872 1877 1878 1894 1894 1902 1902 1915 1915 1954 1954 1915 1900 Computer effects be just an afterthought. Difficult to separate films from earlier technologies, such as flipbooks. Chaplin films be entertaining. Probably not.
7 History of furniture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furniture https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chair#History -30000 NA -30000 NA NA NA NA -30000 -30000 -3100 1880 NA NA NA NA -30000 NA Chairs are relatively recent! It was not until the 16th century that chairs became common.[11] Until then, people sat on chests, benches, and stools, which were the ordinary seats of everyday life. The number of chairs which have survived from an earlier date is exceedingly limited; most examples are of ecclesiastical, seigneurial or feudal origin Maybe. Maybe with the invention of the chair. Maybe with the Industrial Revolution. Maybe in recent history with invention of more and more comfy models of chairs (e.g., bean bags) Small No
8 History of glass. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_glass NA -3600 NA -3600 NA NA NA NA -3600 1887 100 1887 1000 1960 1400 NA 1000 NA “The logic performed by telephone switching relays was the inspiration for the digital computer. The first commercially successful glass bottle blowing machine was an automatic model introduced in 1905.[42] The machine, operated by a two-man crew working 12-hour shifts, could produce 17,280 bottles in 24 hours, compared to 2,880 bottles made by a crew of six men and boys working in a shop for a day. The cost of making bottles by machine was 10 to 12 cents per gross compared to $1.80 per gross by the manual glassblowers and helpers.” Yes. In cheapness and speed with the industrial revolution Medium No
9 Nuclear history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_nuclear_weapons NA 1914 1914 1924 1934 1939 1945 NA 1945 NA 1945 NA 1945 NA 1952 NA 1964 1945 NA Yes. Both with the explosion of the first nuclear weapon, and with the explosion of the (more powerful) hydrogen bomb Big Yes
10 History of the petroleum industry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_petroleum_industry# https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphalt -2000 NA -2000 NA NA NA NA -2000 -2000 762 762 1860 1900 1950 1950 1950 1900 Petroleum was used in antiquity as asphalt, and in China as fuel as well. Yes. Petroleum had been used since ancient times, but it took off starting in ~1850 Big No
11 History of photography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_photography NA 1719 1760 1719 NA NA NA NA 1839 1900 1860 1900 1900 1925 1963 1980 1860 1930 Other links: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/oldest-pictures-in-american-history; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_photography_technology; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_photography . It's really frustrating that when searching the history of cameras, photos of said cameras abound, but not photos taken *by* them. Probably not. No
12 History of printing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_printing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_printing -1000 NA -1000 NA NA NA NA 955 2000 1455 2000 1455 2000 1851 2000 1600 1520 I'm surprised that the press wasn't invented by Gutemberg. Ambiguities as to when printing became cheap; one could buy a printer for 100 bucks in the 2000s. Yes. With Gutenberg. Hardware overhang from having used printing for a more difficult problem: Chinese characters vs latin alphabet Big No
13 History of rail transport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rail_transport#Ancient_systems https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diolkos -600 NA -600 NA NA NA NA 1550 NA 1550 1784 1914 1930 1964 NA 1930 1880 NA Yes. With the introduction of iron, then (Bessemer process) steel over wood, and the introduction of steam engines over horses. Great expansion during the Industrial Revolution. Medium No
14 History of robotics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_robots#1900s NA -1600 NA -1600 1948 NA NA NA -222 1980 1997 NA NA NA NA NA 1750 1952 Progress was made in the 20th and early 21st centuries, but, in an absolute sense, they’re not “pretty good” yet. Maybe. But the 18th-21st centuries saw more progress than the rest combined. Small No
15 History of spaceflight https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_spaceflight https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verein_f%C3%BCr_Raumschiffahrt 1865 1865 NA 1903 1927 1944 1957 1957 NA 1969 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1957 Note that historical development of capabilities isn’t linear, i.e., knowhow was lost after the Apolo programme. Yes. With the beginning of the space race. Big Yes
16 History of water supply and sanitation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_water_supply_and_sanitation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_water_supply_and_sanitation_by_country -3000 NA -3000 NA NA NA NA -3000 -3000 1000 1000 1900 1900 1950 1950 NA NA History highly nonlinear, i.e., Roman t aqueducts were not improved upon during the Middle ages. Also, each of the major cultural theaters kind of did their own thing. Further, access to water supply is still one of the Sustainable Development Goals. That is, countries such as Afghanistan don’t really have universally good water supply. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goals Yes. With the Industrial revolution and the push starting in the, say, 1850s to get sanitation in order (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Activated_sludge); the discovery/invention of activated sludge might also be another discontinuity. But I’d say it’s mostly the “let us, as a civilization, get our house in order” impulse that led to these inventions. Medium No
17 History of rockets https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rockets NA 969 NA 969 1687 NA NA NA 969 NA 1792 NA 1943 NA 1969 NA 1815 1792 Difficult to judge the adequacy of military technology, because it is always dependent on the capabilities of the enemy. Note that the Wikpedia-category of rocket isn’t well defined, and includes both fire arrows and space rockets. Yes. With Hale rockets, whose spinning made them more accurate. Then with de Laval nozzles (hypersonic rockets; went from 2% to 64% efficiency). Then plausibly with Germany’s V2 rocket (the German missile program costed levels comparable to the Manhattan project). Big No
18 History of artificial life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology#Synthetic_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hachimoji_DNA#Description https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XDNA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xeno_nucleic_acid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoplasma_laboratorium NA NA NA 1948 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Two/three branches to artificial life: soft (program), hard (a robot, automata) and wet. That is, either trying to manipulate or do something similar to the biological life we know, or trying to program it. Probably not.
19 History of calendars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_calendars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unix_time NA NA NA 1079 NA NA NA NA NA 1793 1793 NA NA NA NA NA NA Calendars are terrible. All I want is a unix epoch calendar without leap seconds in the style of the French revolution calendar (i.e., fractional time makes sense:: 1.4312h = 1h 43min 12secs). Leap seconds are the invention of the devil. “the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.” Probably not. Maybe with the Khayyam calendar reform in 1079 in the Persian calendar, but it seems too precise to be true. “Because months were computed based on precise times of solar transit between zodiacal regions, seasonal drift never exceeded one day, and also there was no need for a leap year in the Jalali calendar. [...] However, the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.”
20 History of candle making https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_candle_making#Middle_Ages NA -500 NA -500 NA NA NA NA -500 NA -500 NA 1750 1834 1850 1875 NA NA I truth, candle-making is too general a category; almost as general as “burning things to produce light”. Yes. With industrialization: “The manufacture of candles became an industrialised mass market in the mid 19th century. In 1834, Joseph Morgan, a pewterer from Manchester, England, patented a machine that revolutionised candle making. It allowed for continuous production of molded candles by using a cylinder with a moveable piston to eject candles as they solidified. This more efficient mechanized production produced about 1,500 candles per hour, (according to his patent ". . with three men and five boys [the machine] will manufacture two tons of candle in twelve hours"). This allowed candles to become an easily affordable commodity for the masses” Small No
21 History of chromatography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_chromatography https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromatography#History 1855 NA 1855 NA NA NA NA 1952 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1950 1952 The field is pretty unknown to me. Probably not. Any of the new types could have been one, though.
22 Chronology of bladed weapons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_bladed_weapons#Bronze_Swords https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c94vhjGsC8M -1700 NA -1700 NA NA NA NA -600 NA -216 802 NA NA 1233 NA NA NA The field is pretty unknown to me. Probably not. Though the Spanish tercios were probably discontinuous
23 History of condoms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_condoms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._One_Package_of_Japanese_Pessaries 1564 NA 1564 NA NA NA NA 1564 1940 1940 1940 1957 1957 NA NA 1960 1564 NA Probably not
24 History of the diesel car https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_diesel_car 1878 NA 1878 1895 1878 1895 1929 1929 NA 1935 NA 1986 NA NA NA 2000 NA Half-way category error; the more natural thing may have been “history of the diesel *engine*. Yes. In terms of efficiency: the diesel engine’s point is much more efficient than the gasoline engine. Medium No
25 History of hearing aids https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hearing_aids https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ear_trumpet 1634 NA 1634 NA NA NA NA 1634 NA 1850 NA 1920 NA 1985 NA 1850 NA NA Probably not
26 History of aluminium https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_aluminium -500 NA -500 1797 1530 1824 1856 1856 1950 1900 1950 1900 1950 1950 NA 1950 1957 L3 fields refer to the refinement, rather than to the creation of Aluminium. Yes. With the Bayer + Hall–Héroult processes in terms of cheapness. Big No
27 History of automation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automation#History NA -270 NA -270 1868 NA NA NA 1788 NA 1905 NA 1960 NA NA NA 1975 NA Field unfamiliar to me. Also, field which generates discontinuities in other fields. Maybe. If so, with controllers in the 1900s, or with the switch to digital in the 1960s. Kiva systems, used by Amazon, also seems to be substantially better than the competition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Robotics Medium No
28 History of radar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radar#Significance NA 1887 NA 1887 1862 NA NA NA 1935 NA 1941 NA 1941 NA 1941 NA 1980 1945 Developed extremely fast simultaneously by different countries during WWII, in relative secrecy Yes. Development was extremely fast during the war. Big No
29 History of radio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invention_of_radio 1892 NA 1892 1865 1890 1894 1894 1903 1955 1903 1955 1920 1955 1960 1960 1955 1915 NA Yes. The first maybe discontinuity was with Marconi realizing the potential of electromagnetic waves for communication, and his superior commercialization. The second discontinuity was a discontinuity in price as vacuum tubes were replaced with transistors, making radios much more affordable. Big No
30 History of sound recording https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_sound_recording https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_audio_formats 1853 NA 1853 1877 NA NA NA 1896 1979 1925 1979 1930 1979 1966 1999 1979 1940 Unclear when the physics of sound where first rigorously understood. I'm also putting the Walkman as the first cheap product, and Napster as the first cheap and great instance. Maybe. There were different eras, and any of them could have had a discontinuity. For example, magnetic tape recordings were much better than previous technologies Small No
31 History of submarines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_submarines NA NA NA -415 NA NA NA NA 1690 NA 1864 NA 1888 NA 1955 NA 1900 1864 NA Yes. Drebbel's submarine "seemed beyond conventional expectations of what science was thought to have been capable of at the time." It also seems likely that development was sped up during major conflicts (American Civil War, WW1, WW2, Cold War) Small No
32 History of television https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_television https://www.timetoast.com/timelines/the-evolution-of-televisions 1884 NA 1884 NA NA 1908 NA 1922 1960 1955 1960 1980 2000 NA NA 1960 1945 NA Maybe. Work on television was banned during WW2 and picked up faster afterwards. Perhaps with the super-Emitron in the 1930s (“The super-Emitron was between ten and fifteen times more sensitive than the original Emitron and iconoscope tubes and, in some cases, this ratio was considerably greater”) Medium No
33 History of the automobile https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_motor_and_engine_technology 1672 NA 1672 1824 NA NA NA 1886 1908 1908 1908 1938 1938 NA NA 1908 1914 Ford's automation was a discontinuity Yes. In speed of production with Ford. Afterwards maybe with the Japanese (i.e., Toyota) Big No
34 History of the battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_battery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_battery_types 1749 NA 1749 NA 1749 1749 1791 1800 NA 1960 NA 1980 NA NA NA 1920 NA NA Maybe. There have been many types of batteries throughout history, each with different tradeoffs. For example, higher voltage and more consistent current at the expense of greater fragility, like the Poggendorff cell. Or the Grove cell, which offered higher current and voltage, at the expense of being more expensive and giving off poisonous nitric oxide fumes. Or the lithium-ion cell, which seems to just have been better, gotten its inventor a Nobel Price, and shows a pretty big jump in terms of, say, voltage. Small No
35 History of the telephone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_telephone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_telephone 1667 NA 1667 NA 1667 1667 1871 1877 1960 1877 1960 1915 1960 1970 1970 1960 NA NA Probably not. If so, maybe with the invention of the automatic switchboard.
36 History of the transistor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_transistor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_MOSFET#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipolar_junction_transistor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triode https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrode https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer 1925 NA 1925 1947 1925 1947 1947 1953 1953 1969 1977 1975 1990 1990 2000 1957 1957 Unclear where the boundaries of the concept are; i.e., triodes and other amplifiers serve similar functions Maybe. Probably with the invention of the MOSFET; the first transistor which could be used to create integrated circuits, and which started Moore’s law. Big No
37 History of the internal combustion engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_internal_combustion_engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Morland https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a19854205/the-evolution-of-the-combustion-engine/ 1660 NA 1660 1824 1671 1794 1807 1823 NA 1886 NA 1939 NA 1955 NA 1900 NA NA Probably not. If so, jet engines.
38 History of manufactured fuel gases https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_manufactured_fuel_gases NA NA NA NA NA 1789 1794 1801 1803 1826 1812 1826 1870 NA NA NA 1826 NA NA Probably not.
39 History of perpetual motion machines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_perpetual_motion_machines NA 750 NA 750 1912 1150 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA No. None of them work, but I’m a fan of Cox's timepiece (uses variations in atmospheric pressure), and Brownian rachets. No.
40 History of the motorcycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_motorcycle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_and_motorcycle_dynamics 1867 NA 1867 NA NA NA NA 1884 1946 1915 1946 1923 1946 NA NA 1915 NA NA Probably not. If there is, perhaps in price for the first Vespa in 1946
41 History of multitrack recording https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_multitrack_recording http://raymondscott.blogspot.com/2009/08/les-paul-raymond-scott.html 1881 NA 1881 NA NA NA NA 1950 1990 1964 1990 1967 1995 1970 2000 1955 NA NA Maybe. It is possible that Les Paul’s experimenting was sufficiently radical to be a discontinuity. Small Yes
42 History of nanotechnology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_nanotechnology https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multigate_device#GAAFET https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_force_microscopy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Applications_of_nanotechnology 1959 NA 1959 1981 1960 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1981 Technology hasn’t even gotten started Probably not
43 Oscilloscope history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscilloscope_history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tektronix https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathkit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscilloscope https://books.google.at/books?id=Ac5iYqHCcucC&pg=PA165&lpg=PA165&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false 1884 NA 1884 NA NA NA NA 1899 1947 1931 1947 1961 NA 1990 NA 1930 1945 I’m particularly unsure about this technology; my intuitive mapping from reading about the topic to “how good was this at this date” feels particularly thin. Probably not. However, there were many advances in the last century, and any of them could have been one.
44 History of paper https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_paper https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_paper https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paper_wasp -179 NA -179 105 NA NA NA -179 1900 200 1900 NA 1900 NA 1900 1500 105 NA Maybe. Maybe with Cai Lun at the beginning. Probably with the industrial revolution and the introduction of wood pulp w/r to cheapness. Small No
45 History of polymerase chain reaction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_polymerase_chain_reaction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUBJtHwHASA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis 1971 NA 1971 1983 1957 1971 1984 1986 NA 1986 NA 1986 NA 1986 NA 1990 1986 Some ambiguities and fights about the “true inventor” Yes. Polymerase chain reaction *is* the discontinuity; a revolutionary new technology. It enabled many new other technologies, like DNA evidence in trials, HIV tests, analysis of ancient DNA, etc. Big Yes
46 History of the portable gas stove https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_portable_gas_stove NA 1929 NA 1929 NA NA NA 1932 1934 1936 1934 1936 1934 1936 NA NA 1936 NA “Unfortunately Lafares design, however brilliant, was not enough to stop the German ranks marching over his homeland in 1940 after only 6 weeks. The majority of réchaud de gaz de dirigeant were melted down into what can only be assumed as scrap metal for the German war machine. However, from Jeu Lafare's stove the idea was adapted in various forms around the world during World War II and afterwards.” Probably not
47 History of the roller coaster https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_roller_coaster#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Mountains https://www.britannica.com/topic/roller-coaster#ref910739 1784 NA 1784 NA NA NA NA 1817 1845 1817 1845 1925 1959 1975 1975 1930 NA Encyclopedia Britannica mentions precursors from the 15th century. Unclear if this is an error Probably not
48 History of the steam engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_steam_engine http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/PlainTextHistories.asp?ParagraphID=afq1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_turbine 100 NA 100 NA 1551 1663 1698 1775 NA 1775 NA 1804 NA 1850 NA 1775 1775 I’m unclear on how large the improvement was from one type of engine to the next. Also interesting how Watt delayed the adoption of high pressure engine because he felt they were too dangerous and prone to explode (they were) Maybe. The Newcomen engine put together various disparate already existing elements to create something new. Watt’s various improvements also seem dramatic. Unclear abou the others. Medium No
49 History of the telescope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_telescope https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reading_stone 1608 NA 1608 1754 NA 1608 1608 1609 NA 1758 NA 1990 NA NA NA 1700 1632 NA Maybe. If so, maybe after the serendipitous invention/discovery of radio telescopy Small No
50 History of timekeeping devices https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_timekeeping_devices#Pocket_watch https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_clock#Persia NA NA NA NA NA NA NA -2000 -2000 1100 1930 1750 1930 1927 1975 NA NA I’m unclear how expensive a clock was before the industrial revolution Maybe. Plausibly with the industrial revolution in terms of cheapness, then with quartz clocks, then with atomic clocks in terms of precision. Medium No
51 History of wind power https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Early_Middle_Ages NA -5500 NA -5500 NA NA NA NA NA NA 800 NA 1930 NA NA NA 1930 1973 Bias against old technology with unclear descriptions (i.e., non-European) Maybe. If there is, maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Danish_development Tvindcraft Small No