From 80f839561e4804822faf04aea23cb9204096f2a2 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nuno Sempere Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2020 18:24:27 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] fn --- ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md | 10 ++++++---- 1 file changed, 6 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-) diff --git a/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md b/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md index 7df8725..ae55969 100644 --- a/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md +++ b/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [ - PredictIt & Election Betting Odds. - Replication Markets. - Coronavirus Information Markets. - - Foretold. + - Foretold. (c.o.i). - Metaculus. - Good Judgement Open. - In the News. @@ -37,10 +37,12 @@ The question on [which Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?](https://ww [Election Betting Odds](https://electionbettingodds.com/) aggregates PredictIt with other such services for the US presidential elections. ### Replication Markets: [replicationmarkets.com](https://www.replicationmarkets.com) -Replication Markets is a project where volunteer forecasters try to predict whether a given study's results will be replicated with high power. Rewards are monetary, but only given out to the top N forecasters, and markets suffer from sometimes being dull. They have added [two market-maker bots](https://www.replicationmarkets.com/index.php/2020/04/16/meet-the-bots/) and commence and conclude their 6th round. They also add a sleek new widget to visualize the price of shares better. +Replication Markets is a project where volunteer forecasters try to predict whether a given study's results will be replicated with high power. Rewards are monetary, but only given out to the top N forecasters, and markets suffer from sometimes being dull. They have added [two market-maker bots](https://www.replicationmarkets.com/index.php/2020/04/16/meet-the-bots/) and commenced and conclude their 6th round. They also added a sleek new widget to visualize the price of shares better. ### Coronavirus Information Markets: [coronainformationmarkets.com](https://coronainformationmarkets.com/) -For those who want to put their money where their mouth is, there is now a prediction market for coronavirus related information. The number of questions is small, and the current trading volume started at $8000, but may increase. +For those who want to put their money where their mouth is, there is now a prediction market for coronavirus related information. The number of questions is small, and the current trading volume started at $8000, but may increase. Another similar platform is [waves.exchange/prediction](https://waves.exchange/prediction), which seems to be just a wallet to which a prediction market has been grafted on. + +Unfortunately, I couldn't make a transaction in these markets with ~30 mins; the time needed to be included in an ethereum block is longer and I may have been too stingy with my gas fee. ### Foretold: [foretold.io](https://www.foretold.io/) (c.o.i) @@ -70,7 +72,7 @@ Of the questions which have been added recently, the crowd [doesn't buy](https:/ - [forecasts famine](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1559-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-ethiopia-kenya-somalia-tanzania-or-uganda-in-2020) (70%). - Of particular interest is that GJOpen didn't see the upsurge in tests (and thus positives) in the US until until the day before they happened, for [this question](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1599-how-many-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-the-covid-tracking-project-report-as-of-sunday-26-april-2020). Forecasters, including superforecasters, went with a linear extrapolation from the previous n (usually 7) days. However, even though the number of cases looks locally linear, it's also globally exponential, as [this 3Blue1Brown video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg) shows. On the other hand, an enterprising forecaster tried to fit a Gompertz distribution, but then fared pretty badly. -## In the News: +## In the News - [Forecasts in the time of coronavirus](https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/08/1586350137000/Forecasts-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/): The Financial times runs into difficulties trying to estimate whether some companies are overvalued, because the stock value/earnings ratio, which is otherwise an useful tool, is going to infinity as earnings go to 0 during the pandemic. - [Predictions are hard, especially about the coronavirus](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/4/8/21210193/coronavirus-forecasting-models-predictions): Vox has a short and sweet article on the difficulties of prediction forecasting; of note is that epidemiology experts are not great predictors. - [538: Why Forecasting COVID-19 Is Harder Than Forecasting Elections](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-why-forecasting-covid-19-is-harder-than-forecasting-elections/)