From 7ec5eaeb9c2a3063971a52863f84a213dcd058ac Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Nuno Sempere Date: Wed, 29 Apr 2020 22:42:16 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] fn --- ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md | 4 ++-- ea/ForecastingNewsletter/README.md | 3 ++- 2 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md b/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md index b50b8dc..7e7376d 100644 --- a/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md +++ b/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020.md @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ Whatever happened to forecasting? April 2020 ============================================ -A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter). +A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter). The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least three more iterations. ## Index - Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms. @@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ Of the questions which have been added recently, the crowd [doesn't buy](https:/ - gives a lagging estimate of 50% on [Benjamin Netanyahu ceasing to be the prime minister of Israel before 1 January 2021](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1498-will-benjamin-netanyahu-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-israel-before-1-january-2021). - and 10% for [Nicolás Maduro](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1423-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-june-2020). - [forecasts famine](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1559-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-ethiopia-kenya-somalia-tanzania-or-uganda-in-2020) (70%). -- Of particular interest is that GJOpen didn't see the upsurge in tests (and thus positives) in the US until 1 day before they happened, for [this question](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1599-how-many-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-the-covid-tracking-project-report-as-of-sunday-26-april-2020). Forecasters, including superforecasters, went with a linear extrapolation from the previous n (usually 7) days. However, even though the number of cases looks locally linear, it's also globally exponential, as [this 3Blue1Brown video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg) shows. +- Of particular interest is that GJOpen didn't see the upsurge in tests (and thus positives) in the US until 1 day before they happened, for [this question](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1599-how-many-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-the-covid-tracking-project-report-as-of-sunday-26-april-2020). Forecasters, including superforecasters, went with a linear extrapolation from the previous n (usually 7) days. However, even though the number of cases looks locally linear, it's also globally exponential, as [this 3Blue1Brown video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg) shows. Yet again, an enterprising forecaster tried to fit a Gompertz distribution, but then fared pretty badly. ## In the News: - [Forecasts in the time of coronavirus](https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/08/1586350137000/Forecasts-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/): The Financial times runs into difficulties trying to estimate whether some companies are overvalued, because the stock value/earnings ratio, which is otherwise an useful tool, is going to infinity as earnings go to 0 during the pandemic. diff --git a/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/README.md b/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/README.md index 17fa8de..5e36b5d 100644 --- a/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/README.md +++ b/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/README.md @@ -1,5 +1,6 @@ ## A Forecasting Newsletter -With a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter). + +A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter). The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least three more iterations. ## Past history