diff --git a/index.md b/index.md index e051701..11184a9 100644 --- a/index.md +++ b/index.md @@ -1,85 +1,92 @@ ## Best of -[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) (en) -[Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7) (en) -[Past Pandemics](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/PastPandemics) (en) -[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally) (en) -[Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html) (en) -[[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting) (en) -[[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) (en) -[Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) & [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/) (en) -[Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics) (en) -[Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html) (en) -[Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html) (en) +1. [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities) +2. [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) +3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7) +4. [Past Pandemics](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/PastPandemics) +5. [[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting) +6. [[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) +7. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) & [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/) +8. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics) +9. [Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html) +10. [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html) -## Recent. -[October 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020) -[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) (en) -[Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/September2020) -[Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/August2020) (en) -[Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/July2020) (en) -[Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020) (en) -[Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020) (en) -[Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9YJKugJ68qTFzMNCM/forecasting-newsletter-april-2020) (en) -[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally) (en) +## Recent +[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA) +[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions) +[Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using) +[A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities) +[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house) +[Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/October2020) +[Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) +## Effective Altruism & Rationality -## Effective Altruism & Rationality Stuff / Altruismo efectivo & Racionalidad. +### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere) +[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA) +[Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8oeKNKqYzwgJ4mCNS/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020) +[International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability) +[A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making) +[A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S3vAPRp2XQ9BdDbPz/a-glowing-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-poverty) +[[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting) +[[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) +[Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) +[Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) +[Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples) +[EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis) -### [Myself on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere) (en) -[Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8oeKNKqYzwgJ4mCNS/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020) (en) -[International Supply Chain Accountability](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ME4zE34KBSYnt6hGp/new-top-ea-cause-international-supply-chain-accountability) (en) -[A review of two books on survey-making](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DCcciuLxRveSkBng2/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making) (en) -[A glowing review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S3vAPRp2XQ9BdDbPz/a-glowing-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-poverty) (en) -[[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting) (en) -[[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) (en) -[Shapley Values Reloaded: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) (en) -[Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) (en) -[Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples) (en) -[EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FheKNFgPqEsN8Nxuv/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-analysis) (en) +### [On LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/nunosempere) +[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions) +[Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using) +[A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities) +[AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house) -### Other thoughts: -[Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment) (en) -[Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html) (en) -[Calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/calibration/) (en) +### Elsewhere +[Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html) +[Accuracy of Ray Kurzweil’s predictions for the 2010s](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/KurzweilPredictionsForThe2010s.html) +[Some Data Visualization for Foretold.io's Amplification Experiments](https://observablehq.com/@nunosempere/plots-for-the-amplification-experiment) +[Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html) +[Calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/calibration/) [100 predicciones](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/100-predicciones-en-100-dias.html) (es) -[A practical exercise in p-hacking](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/eamentalhealth/p-hacking.html) (en) -[List of TAPs](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/list-of-taps.html) (en) -[List of Superpowers I want to steal](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (en) -[Paradox Party](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/paradox-party.html) (en) -[Crocker's rules](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (en) +[A practical exercise in p-hacking](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/eamentalhealth/p-hacking.html) +[List of TAPs](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/list-of-taps.html) +[List of Superpowers I want to steal](https://nunosempere.github.io/) +[Paradox Party](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/paradox-party.html) +[Crocker's rules](https://nunosempere.github.io/) [¿Siempre lo supiste? El sesgo de retrospección](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es) -[Calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://calibration/) (en) -[From a dark arts practitioner](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/dark_arts.html) (en) -[Dark Arts: Narrativomancy](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/narrativomancy.html) (en) +[Calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://calibration/) +[From a dark arts practitioner](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/dark_arts.html) +[Dark Arts: Narrativomancy](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/narrativomancy.html) [Consideraciones retreat Altruismo Efectivo Septiembre 2018](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/AE-retreat.html) (es) -[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html) (en) -[Different ideals than my own](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Different-Ideals.html) +[Mention in *The Times* in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html) +[Different ideals than my own](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Different-Ideals.html) - -## Fucking around with Programming and Maths / Mierdas de programación y matemáticas -[Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow) (en) +## Programming and Maths | Programación y matemáticas +[Github profile](https://github.com/NunoSempere) +[Labeling](https://github.com/NunoSempere/labeling), an R package which I mantain. It's used in ggplot2, through the scales package, and thus has 500k+ downloads a month. +[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally) +[Programming Languages I Know](http://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ProgrammingLanguagesIknow) [Sci-py turns out to be particularly easy to use](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/MachineLearningDemystified/) (en, Python) -[Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/) (en) -[Letter from O.Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html) (en) -[AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html) (en) +[Vienna Data Science Hackathon](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/Vienna-Data-Science-Hackathon-May-4-2019/) +[Letter from O.Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html) +[AI texts I've read](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/ai.html) [Sobre el problema de las parejas estables](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://stable-marriage-problem/) (es) -[Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html) (en) -[Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/logarithms.pdf) (en) +[Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html) +[Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/logarithms.pdf) [Programa de facturación](https://easyfirma.es) (es) -## Humanities / Humanidades. +## Humanities | Humanidades. [Apuntes de una charla: Diálogos con la cultura, de Remedios Zafra](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/remedios-zafra) (es) [Mentir mola](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/mentir-mola.html ) (es) [¿Qué es atracar un banco en comparación con fundar un banco?: Selección de citas de Brecht.](https://nunosempere.github.io/humanities/brecht.html) (es) [La desmundanalización de la iglesia](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/catholic-church.html) (es) -## Costumbrismo +## [Costumbrismo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costumbrismo) [Die Macht der Merkel](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/merkel.html) (es) [Oh alemán, mi alemán](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/aleman) (es) [Crónica de una gamberrada](https://nunosempere.github.io/costumbrismo/gamberrada/index.html) (es) -## Philosophy / Filosofía. +## Philosophy | Filosofía. [Monomito y Muchimito: Adiós a los principios, de Odo Marquard](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/marquard.html) (es) [La nomenclatura no es conocimiento](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/nomenclatura.html) (es) [Mucha granularidad sí, poca granularidad no](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/granularidad.html) (es) @@ -91,7 +98,7 @@ [El evangelio según San Pedro](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/san-pedro.html) (es) [El fetichismo del franquismo](https://nunosempere.github.io/philosophy/franquismo.html) (es) -## Fucking around with Language and Literature / Mierdas lingüísticas. +## Language and Literature | Lenguaje y literatura. [Análisis de "Yo persigo una forma que no encuentra mi estilo", de Rubén Darío](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/ruben-dario-yo-persigo-una-forma-que-no-encuentra-mi-estilo.html) (es) [Sinónimos de "fantástico" que empiecen por f](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/fantastico.html) (es) [En tanto que de rosa y azucena](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/en-tanto-que-de-rosa-y-azucena.html) (es) @@ -105,24 +112,20 @@ [Una interesante tesis doctoral de lingüística](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit/tesis/madurez) (es) [Todo lo que nunca has querido saber sobre literatura fantástica (mazacote)](https://nunosempere.github.io/lit-fantastica.html) (es) [Criba palabras](https://nunosempere.github.io/https://criba-de-palabras-Lucia/README.html) (es) +Más en [mi antiguo blog](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/) -## Fiction / Ficción +## Fiction | Ficción [Las aventuras del aventurero Nuño Núñez](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/nuno-nunez.html) (es) [El Partido Carlista Antimonárquico Español](https://nunosempere.github.io/fiction/carlista.html) (es) -## Colaboradores con el Régimen. -Claudia Lombardo [Biología para futuros presidentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es) -Lucía Trillo [Thinking fast and slow](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es) -Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es) +## Written by others +Claudia Lombardo [Biología para futuros presidentes](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/biologia-para-futuros-presidentes-parte.html) (es) +Lucía Trillo [Thinking fast and slow](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2017/01/thinking-fast-and-slow.html) (es) +Alonso Campos [Freedom regained, de Julian Baggini](https://blogdelecturadenuno.blogspot.com/2016/10/freedom-regained-de-julian-baggini.html) (es) -## Miscellanea / Cajón de sastre. -[Unfair chess](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/unfairchess.html) (en) -[Made a webpage for a friend](https://ciruelahaiti.github.io/) -[The Wonderer vs Can You Feel the Love Tonight](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es) -[The Lady of Shalott](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (en) -[Sobre la conquista del fuego, Freud](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es) -[¿Cuánto vale cada idioma?](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es) -[Adolfo Suárez desde la tumba](https://nunosempere.github.io/) (es) +## Miscellanea | Cajón de sastre. +[Unfair chess](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/unfairchess.html) +[Webpage for a friend](https://ciruelahaiti.github.io/) [La verdad sobre el caso Amancio Ortega](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/inditex.html) (es) -[Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/letimotiv.html) (es) +[Letimotiv: Ideas recurrentes](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/letimotiv.html) (es) [The Mask](https://nunosempere.github.io/miscellanea/The-Mask.html)