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# Analysis of some predictions about the 2018 EA Survey # Analysis of some predictions about the 2018 EA Survey
## Introduction. ## Introduction.
A group of effective altruism community leaders made predictions about the 2018 EA Survey: a survey which aims to reach most people within the effective altruism movement. Here, I present the set up for the prediction making, the questions, and explain some judgement calls I made when judging the answers. Everything is written such that you can play along. At the end, I provide some code to replicate my analysis. A group of effective altruism community leaders made predictions about the 2018 EA Survey: a survey which aims to reach most people within the effective altruism movement. Here, I present the set up for the prediction making, the questions, and explain some judgement calls I made when judging the answers. Everything is written such that you can play along. At the end, I provide some code to replicate my analysis. The data was given to me by David Nash.
## Set up ## Set up
For every question, try to come up with an interval such that you're 80% confident the answer lies in it. If you use a search engine, the surveys from previous years are fair game. For every question, try to come up with an interval such that you're 80% confident the answer lies in it. If you use a search engine, the surveys from previous years are fair game.