personal/nunosempere.github.io
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Daily grind

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
Nuno Sempere 2020-06-29 21:25:59 +02:00
parent 98763db632
commit 571e4a1123
1 changed files with 4 additions and 0 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

4
ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020.md
View File

@ -73,6 +73,7 @@ Ordered in subjective order of importance:
- Youyang Gu's model, widely acclaimed as one of the best coronavirus models for the US, produces 95% confidence intervals which [seem too narrow](https://twitter.com/LinchZhang/status/1270443040860106753) when extended to [Pakistan](https://covid19-projections.com/pakistan).
- Some discussion on [twitter](https://twitter.com/vidur_kapur/status/1269749592867905537): "Only a fool would put a probability on whether the EU and the UK will agree a trade deal", says Financial Times correspondent, and other examples.
## Hard to categorize.
@ -132,6 +133,9 @@ Ordered in subjective order of importance:
- Opinion: I'm not sure whether their results are going to be useful for things I'm interested in (like human forecasting tournaments, rather than Kaggle data analysis competitions). In practice, what I might do if I wanted to incentivize precision is to ask myself if this is a question where the answer is going to be closer to 50%, or closer to either of 0% or 100%, and then use either the Brier or the logarithmic scoring rules. That is, I don't want to minimize an l-norm of the error over [0,1], I want to minimize an l-norm over the region I think the answer is going to be in, and the paper falls short of addressing that.
- [How Innovation Works—A Review](https://quillette.com/2020/05/29/how-innovation-works-a-review/). The following quote stood out for me:
> Ridley points out that there have always been opponents of innovation. Such people often have an interest in maintaining the status quo but justify their objections with reference to the precautionary principle.
- [A list of prediction markets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XB1GHfizNtVYTOAD_uOyBLEyl_EV7hVtDYDXLQwgT7k/edit#gid=0), and their fates, maintained by Jacob Laguerros. Like most startups, most prediction markets fail.
Note to the future: All links are added automatically to the Internet Archive. In case of link rot, go [here](https://archive.org/)