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2. [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf) 2. [Labor, Capital, and the Optimal Growth of Social Movements](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/MovementBuildingForUtilityMaximizers.pdf)
3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7) 3. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7)
4. [Past Pandemics](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/PastPandemics) 4. [Past Pandemics](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/PastPandemics)
5. [[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting) 5. [Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
6. [[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) 6. [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting)
7. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) & [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/) 7. [Shapley Values: Better Than Counterfactuals](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XHZJ9i7QBtAJZ6byW/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) & [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) & [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)
8. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics) 8. [Why did the Spanish Enlightenment movement fail? (1750-1850)](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/spanishenlightenment) & [Why did the General Semantics Movement Fail?](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/general-semantics)
9. [Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html) 9. [Write-up on some self experimentation in calibration](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.html)
10. [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)
## Recent ## Recent
[Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA) [Prizes in the EA Forum and LW.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)
[The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques) [The Making of a Top Forecaster](https://www.cset-foretell.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)
[Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions) [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyNrj2wwHSnb4tiMk/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
[Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)
[A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
## Effective Altruism & Rationality ## Effective Altruism & Rationality
### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere) ### [On the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere)
[Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
[Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
[Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH) [Reasons why upvotes on the EA forum and LW don't correlate that well with impact](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=kLuhtmQRZBJpcaHhH)
[Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA) [Prizes in the EA Forum and LW](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/GseREh8MEEuLCZayf/nunosempere-s-shortform?commentId=WPStS4qhJS7Mz6KCA)