From 4c6fddcef442b75af84440a8ba6c44aeea75a76a Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: NunoSempere Date: Thu, 15 Oct 2020 20:19:08 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Techprior database broad vs specific categories --- ea/techprior/database.csv | 102 +++++++++--------- .../database_broad_vs_specific_categories.csv | 56 ++++++++++ 2 files changed, 107 insertions(+), 51 deletions(-) create mode 100644 ea/techprior/database_broad_vs_specific_categories.csv diff --git a/ea/techprior/database.csv b/ea/techprior/database.csv index d5b2a22..d0c5af6 100644 --- a/ea/techprior/database.csv +++ b/ea/techprior/database.csv @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ -Technology,URL,URL2,L1,L1.a,L1.b,L2,L3-a,L3-b,L3-c,L4,L4.a,L5,L5.a,L6,L6.a,L7,L7.a,L8,L9,Comments,Is there plausibly a discontinuity,Size of the (plausible) discontinuity,Discontinuity at the beginning of the technology? -History of aviation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_aviation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_aviation,-630,-630,NA,1810,1783,1783,1783,1783,1949,1909,1949,1922,1949,1969,NA,1965,1958,Early pioneers were recklessly insane. The Wright brothers were a discontinuity.,"Yes. With the Wright brothers, who were more analytical and capable than any before them. ",Big,No +Technology,URL,URL2,L1,L1.a,L1.b,L2,L3-a,L3-b,L3-c,L4,L4.a,L5,L5.a,L6,L6.a,L7,L7.a,L8,L9,Comments,Is there plausibly a discontinuity,Size of the (plausible) discontinuity,Discontinuity at the beginning of the technology?,Year of the first big discontinuity,Year since start,Year since start or since 1750 +History of aviation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_aviation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_aviation,-630,-630,NA,1810,1783,1783,1783,1783,1949,1909,1949,1922,1949,1969,NA,1965,1958,Early pioneers were recklessly insane. The Wright brothers were a discontinuity.,"Yes. With the Wright brothers, who were more analytical and capable than any before them. ",Big,No,1902,2532,152 History of ceramics,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceramic,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pottery#History; http://www.vam.ac.uk/content/articles/m/masterpieces-of-ceramics-timeline/,-29000,NA,29000,1939,NA,-29000,NA,-29000,-29000,NA,1650,-460,1850,1300,1850,NA,NA,"Where by “ceramic” I mostly mean pottery. In the Chalcolithic period in Mesopotamia, Halafian pottery achieved a level of technical competence and sophistication, not seen until the later developments of Greek pottery with Corinthian and Attic ware. @@ -13,77 +13,77 @@ Pretty good by -460; see http://www.vam.ac.uk/content/articles/m/masterpieces-of Really good by the 1300s. When was glazing invented? -- Sooner, but by the 1300s it was refined.",Probably not.,, -History of cryptography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cryptography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_cryptography,NA,NA,NA,1883,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1553,1553,1917,1917,1977,1977,1991,NA,"Some technologies don't easily lend themselves to being ranked on an absolute scale. For example, it seems more natural to rank military technology, or cryptography by comparison to the code-breaking capabilities of their age, rather than on an absolute scale. Still.",Yes. Plausibly with the invention of the one-time pad.,Medium,No +- Sooner, but by the 1300s it was refined.",Probably not.,,,,, +History of cryptography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cryptography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_cryptography,NA,NA,NA,1883,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1553,1553,1917,1917,1977,1977,1991,NA,"Some technologies don't easily lend themselves to being ranked on an absolute scale. For example, it seems more natural to rank military technology, or cryptography by comparison to the code-breaking capabilities of their age, rather than on an absolute scale. Still.",Yes. Plausibly with the invention of the one-time pad.,Medium,No,,, History of cycling,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_bicycle,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_cycling; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penny-farthing; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocipede#Boneshaker https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safety_bicycle#History -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dandy_horse",1817,NA,1817,NA,NA,1817,1819,,,,,,,1885,,,,,"Yes. With its invention. The dandy horse (immediate antecessor to the bicycle) was invented in a period where there were few horses, but it could in principle have been invented much earlier, and it enabled humans to go much faster.",Small,Yes -History of film,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_film; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetoscope,https://www.infoplease.com/arts-entertainment/movies-and-videos/movie-timeline,1872,NA,1872,NA,1872,1877,1878,1894,1894,1902,1902,1915,1915,1954,1954,1915,1900,"Computer effects be just an afterthought. Difficult to separate films from earlier technologies, such as flipbooks. Chaplin films be entertaining.",Probably not.,, -History of furniture,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furniture,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chair#History,-30000,NA,-30000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-30000,-30000,-3100,1880,NA,NA,NA,NA,-30000,NA,"Chairs are relatively recent! It was not until the 16th century that chairs became common.[11] Until then, people sat on chests, benches, and stools, which were the ordinary seats of everyday life. The number of chairs which have survived from an earlier date is exceedingly limited; most examples are of ecclesiastical, seigneurial or feudal origin","Maybe. Maybe with the invention of the chair. Maybe with the Industrial Revolution. Maybe in recent history with invention of more and more comfy models of chairs (e.g., bean bags)",Small,No -History of glass.,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_glass,NA,-3600,NA,-3600,NA,NA,NA,NA,-3600,1887,100,1887,1000,1960,1400,NA,1000,NA,"“The logic performed by telephone switching relays was the inspiration for the digital computer. The first commercially successful glass bottle blowing machine was an automatic model introduced in 1905.[42] The machine, operated by a two-man crew working 12-hour shifts, could produce 17,280 bottles in 24 hours, compared to 2,880 bottles made by a crew of six men and boys working in a shop for a day. The cost of making bottles by machine was 10 to 12 cents per gross compared to $1.80 per gross by the manual glassblowers and helpers.”",Yes. In cheapness and speed with the industrial revolution,Medium,No -Nuclear history,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_nuclear_weapons,NA,1914,1914,1924,1934,1939,1945,NA,1945,NA,1945,NA,1945,NA,1952,NA,1964,1945,NA,"Yes. Both with the explosion of the first nuclear weapon, and with the explosion of the (more powerful) hydrogen bomb",Big,Yes -History of the petroleum industry,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_petroleum_industry#,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphalt,-2000,NA,-2000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-2000,-2000,762,762,1860,1900,1950,1950,1950,1900,"Petroleum was used in antiquity as asphalt, and in China as fuel as well.","Yes. Petroleum had been used since ancient times, but it took off starting in ~1850",Big,No -History of photography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_photography,NA,1719,1760,1719,NA,NA,NA,NA,1839,1900,1860,1900,1900,1925,1963,1980,1860,1930,"Other links: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/oldest-pictures-in-american-history; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_photography_technology; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_photography . It's really frustrating that when searching the history of cameras, photos of said cameras abound, but not photos taken *by* them.",Probably not.,,No -History of printing,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_printing,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_printing,-1000,NA,-1000,NA,NA,NA,NA,955,2000,1455,2000,1455,2000,1851,2000,1600,1520,I'm surprised that the press wasn't invented by Gutemberg. Ambiguities as to when printing became cheap; one could buy a printer for 100 bucks in the 2000s.,Yes. With Gutenberg. Hardware overhang from having used printing for a more difficult problem: Chinese characters vs latin alphabet,Big,No -History of rail transport,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rail_transport#Ancient_systems,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diolkos,-600,NA,-600,NA,NA,NA,NA,1550,NA,1550,1784,1914,1930,1964,NA,1930,1880,NA,"Yes. With the introduction of iron, then (Bessemer process) steel over wood, and the introduction of steam engines over horses. Great expansion during the Industrial Revolution.",Medium,No -History of robotics,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_robots#1900s,NA,-1600,NA,-1600,1948,NA,NA,NA,-222,1980,1997,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1750,1952,"Progress was made in the 20th and early 21st centuries, but, in an absolute sense, they’re not “pretty good” yet.",Maybe. But the 18th-21st centuries saw more progress than the rest combined. ,Small,No -History of spaceflight,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_spaceflight,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verein_f%C3%BCr_Raumschiffahrt,1865,1865,NA,1903,1927,1944,1957,1957,NA,1969,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1957,"Note that historical development of capabilities isn’t linear, i.e., knowhow was lost after the Apolo programme.",Yes. With the beginning of the space race. ,Big,Yes -History of water supply and sanitation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_water_supply_and_sanitation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_water_supply_and_sanitation_by_country,-3000,NA,-3000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-3000,-3000,1000,1000,1900,1900,1950,1950,NA,NA,"History highly nonlinear, i.e., Roman t aqueducts were not improved upon during the Middle ages. Also, each of the major cultural theaters kind of did their own thing. Further, access to water supply is still one of the Sustainable Development Goals. That is, countries such as Afghanistan don’t really have universally good water supply. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goals","Yes. With the Industrial revolution and the push starting in the, say, 1850s to get sanitation in order (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Activated_sludge); the discovery/invention of activated sludge might also be another discontinuity. But I’d say it’s mostly the “let us, as a civilization, get our house in order” impulse that led to these inventions. ",Medium,No -History of rockets,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rockets,NA,969,NA,969,1687,NA,NA,NA,969,NA,1792,NA,1943,NA,1969,NA,1815,1792,"Difficult to judge the adequacy of military technology, because it is always dependent on the capabilities of the enemy. Note that the Wikpedia-category of rocket isn’t well defined, and includes both fire arrows and space rockets. ","Yes. With Hale rockets, whose spinning made them more accurate. Then with de Laval nozzles (hypersonic rockets; went from 2% to 64% efficiency). Then plausibly with Germany’s V2 rocket (the German missile program costed levels comparable to the Manhattan project). ",Big,No +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dandy_horse",1817,NA,1817,NA,NA,1817,1819,,,,,,,1885,,,,,"Yes. With its invention. The dandy horse (immediate antecessor to the bicycle) was invented in a period where there were few horses, but it could in principle have been invented much earlier, and it enabled humans to go much faster.",Small,Yes,,, +History of film,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_film; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetoscope,https://www.infoplease.com/arts-entertainment/movies-and-videos/movie-timeline,1872,NA,1872,NA,1872,1877,1878,1894,1894,1902,1902,1915,1915,1954,1954,1915,1900,"Computer effects be just an afterthought. Difficult to separate films from earlier technologies, such as flipbooks. Chaplin films be entertaining.",Probably not.,,,,, +History of furniture,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furniture,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chair#History,-30000,NA,-30000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-30000,-30000,-3100,1880,NA,NA,NA,NA,-30000,NA,"Chairs are relatively recent! It was not until the 16th century that chairs became common.[11] Until then, people sat on chests, benches, and stools, which were the ordinary seats of everyday life. The number of chairs which have survived from an earlier date is exceedingly limited; most examples are of ecclesiastical, seigneurial or feudal origin","Maybe. Maybe with the invention of the chair. Maybe with the Industrial Revolution. Maybe in recent history with invention of more and more comfy models of chairs (e.g., bean bags)",Small,No,,, +History of glass.,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_glass,NA,-3600,NA,-3600,NA,NA,NA,NA,-3600,1887,100,1887,1000,1960,1400,NA,1000,NA,"“The logic performed by telephone switching relays was the inspiration for the digital computer. The first commercially successful glass bottle blowing machine was an automatic model introduced in 1905.[42] The machine, operated by a two-man crew working 12-hour shifts, could produce 17,280 bottles in 24 hours, compared to 2,880 bottles made by a crew of six men and boys working in a shop for a day. The cost of making bottles by machine was 10 to 12 cents per gross compared to $1.80 per gross by the manual glassblowers and helpers.”",Yes. In cheapness and speed with the industrial revolution,Medium,No,,, +Nuclear history,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_nuclear_weapons,NA,1914,1914,1924,1934,1939,1945,NA,1945,NA,1945,NA,1945,NA,1952,NA,1964,1945,NA,"Yes. Both with the explosion of the first nuclear weapon, and with the explosion of the (more powerful) hydrogen bomb",Big,Yes,1945,31,31 +History of the petroleum industry,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_petroleum_industry#,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asphalt,-2000,NA,-2000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-2000,-2000,762,762,1860,1900,1950,1950,1950,1900,"Petroleum was used in antiquity as asphalt, and in China as fuel as well.","Yes. Petroleum had been used since ancient times, but it took off starting in ~1850",Big,No,1850,3850,100 +History of photography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_photography,NA,1719,1760,1719,NA,NA,NA,NA,1839,1900,1860,1900,1900,1925,1963,1980,1860,1930,"Other links: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/gabrielsanchez/oldest-pictures-in-american-history; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_photography_technology; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Color_photography . It's really frustrating that when searching the history of cameras, photos of said cameras abound, but not photos taken *by* them.",Probably not.,,No,,, +History of printing,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_printing,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offset_printing,-1000,NA,-1000,NA,NA,NA,NA,955,2000,1455,2000,1455,2000,1851,2000,1600,1520,I'm surprised that the press wasn't invented by Gutemberg. Ambiguities as to when printing became cheap; one could buy a printer for 100 bucks in the 2000s.,Yes. With Gutenberg. Hardware overhang from having used printing for a more difficult problem: Chinese characters vs latin alphabet,Big,No,1450,2450,-300 +History of rail transport,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rail_transport#Ancient_systems,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diolkos,-600,NA,-600,NA,NA,NA,NA,1550,NA,1550,1784,1914,1930,1964,NA,1930,1880,NA,"Yes. With the introduction of iron, then (Bessemer process) steel over wood, and the introduction of steam engines over horses. Great expansion during the Industrial Revolution.",Medium,No,,, +History of robotics,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_robots#1900s,NA,-1600,NA,-1600,1948,NA,NA,NA,-222,1980,1997,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1750,1952,"Progress was made in the 20th and early 21st centuries, but, in an absolute sense, they’re not “pretty good” yet.",Maybe. But the 18th-21st centuries saw more progress than the rest combined. ,Small,No,,, +History of spaceflight,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_spaceflight,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verein_f%C3%BCr_Raumschiffahrt,1865,1865,NA,1903,1927,1944,1957,1957,NA,1969,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1957,"Note that historical development of capabilities isn’t linear, i.e., knowhow was lost after the Apolo programme.",Yes. With the beginning of the space race. ,Big,Yes,1957,92,92 +History of water supply and sanitation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_water_supply_and_sanitation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_water_supply_and_sanitation_by_country,-3000,NA,-3000,NA,NA,NA,NA,-3000,-3000,1000,1000,1900,1900,1950,1950,NA,NA,"History highly nonlinear, i.e., Roman t aqueducts were not improved upon during the Middle ages. Also, each of the major cultural theaters kind of did their own thing. Further, access to water supply is still one of the Sustainable Development Goals. That is, countries such as Afghanistan don’t really have universally good water supply. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_Development_Goals","Yes. With the Industrial revolution and the push starting in the, say, 1850s to get sanitation in order (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Stink; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Activated_sludge); the discovery/invention of activated sludge might also be another discontinuity. But I’d say it’s mostly the “let us, as a civilization, get our house in order” impulse that led to these inventions. ",Medium,No,,, +History of rockets,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_rockets,NA,969,NA,969,1687,NA,NA,NA,969,NA,1792,NA,1943,NA,1969,NA,1815,1792,"Difficult to judge the adequacy of military technology, because it is always dependent on the capabilities of the enemy. Note that the Wikpedia-category of rocket isn’t well defined, and includes both fire arrows and space rockets. ","Yes. With Hale rockets, whose spinning made them more accurate. Then with de Laval nozzles (hypersonic rockets; went from 2% to 64% efficiency). Then plausibly with Germany’s V2 rocket (the German missile program costed levels comparable to the Manhattan project). ",Big,No,1888,919,138 History of artificial life,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_artificial_life,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_biology#Synthetic_life https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hachimoji_DNA#Description https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XDNA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xeno_nucleic_acid https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_types_of_biochemistry -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoplasma_laboratorium",NA,NA,NA,1948,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"Two/three branches to artificial life: soft (program), hard (a robot, automata) and wet. That is, either trying to manipulate or do something similar to the biological life we know, or trying to program it.",Probably not.,, -History of calendars,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_calendars,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unix_time,NA,NA,NA,1079,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1793,1793,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"Calendars are terrible. All I want is a unix epoch calendar without leap seconds in the style of the French revolution calendar (i.e., fractional time makes sense:: 1.4312h = 1h 43min 12secs). Leap seconds are the invention of the devil. “the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.”","Probably not. Maybe with the Khayyam calendar reform in 1079 in the Persian calendar, but it seems too precise to be true. “Because months were computed based on precise times of solar transit between zodiacal regions, seasonal drift never exceeded one day, and also there was no need for a leap year in the Jalali calendar. [...] However, the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.”",, -History of candle making,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_candle_making#Middle_Ages,NA,-500,NA,-500,NA,NA,NA,NA,-500,NA,-500,NA,1750,1834,1850,1875,NA,NA,"I truth, candle-making is too general a category; almost as general as “burning things to produce light”.","Yes. With industrialization: “The manufacture of candles became an industrialised mass market in the mid 19th century. In 1834, Joseph Morgan, a pewterer from Manchester, England, patented a machine that revolutionised candle making. It allowed for continuous production of molded candles by using a cylinder with a moveable piston to eject candles as they solidified. This more efficient mechanized production produced about 1,500 candles per hour, (according to his patent "". . with three men and five boys [the machine] will manufacture two tons of candle in twelve hours""). This allowed candles to become an easily affordable commodity for the masses”",Small,No -History of chromatography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_chromatography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromatography#History,1855,NA,1855,NA,NA,NA,NA,1952,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1950,1952,The field is pretty unknown to me.,"Probably not. Any of the new types could have been one, though.",, -Chronology of bladed weapons,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_bladed_weapons#Bronze_Swords,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c94vhjGsC8M,-1700,NA,-1700,NA,NA,NA,NA,-600,NA,-216,802,NA,NA,1233,NA,NA,NA,The field is pretty unknown to me. ,Probably not. Though the Spanish tercios were probably discontinuous,, -History of condoms,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_condoms,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._One_Package_of_Japanese_Pessaries,1564,NA,1564,NA,NA,NA,NA,1564,1940,1940,1940,1957,1957,NA,NA,1960,1564,NA,Probably not,, -History of the diesel car,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_diesel_car,1878,NA,1878,1895,1878,1895,1929,1929,NA,1935,NA,1986,NA,NA,NA,2000,NA,Half-way category error; the more natural thing may have been “history of the diesel *engine*. ,Yes. In terms of efficiency: the diesel engine’s point is much more efficient than the gasoline engine.,Medium,No -History of hearing aids,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hearing_aids,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ear_trumpet,1634,NA,1634,NA,NA,NA,NA,1634,NA,1850,NA,1920,NA,1985,NA,1850,NA,NA,Probably not,, -History of aluminium,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#History,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_aluminium,-500,NA,-500,1797,1530,1824,1856,1856,1950,1900,1950,1900,1950,1950,NA,1950,1957,"L3 fields refer to the refinement, rather than to the creation of Aluminium.",Yes. With the Bayer + Hall–Héroult processes in terms of cheapness.,Big,No -History of automation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automation#History,NA,-270,NA,-270,1868,NA,NA,NA,1788,NA,1905,NA,1960,NA,NA,NA,1975,NA,"Field unfamiliar to me. Also, field which generates discontinuities in other fields.","Maybe. If so, with controllers in the 1900s, or with the switch to digital in the 1960s. Kiva systems, used by Amazon, also seems to be substantially better than the competition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Robotics",Medium,No -History of radar,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radar#Significance,NA,1887,NA,1887,1862,NA,NA,NA,1935,NA,1941,NA,1941,NA,1941,NA,1980,1945,"Developed extremely fast simultaneously by different countries during WWII, in relative secrecy",Yes. Development was extremely fast during the war.,Big,No -History of radio,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radio,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invention_of_radio,1892,NA,1892,1865,1890,1894,1894,1903,1955,1903,1955,1920,1955,1960,1960,1955,1915,NA,"Yes. The first maybe discontinuity was with Marconi realizing the potential of electromagnetic waves for communication, and his superior commercialization. The second discontinuity was a discontinuity in price as vacuum tubes were replaced with transistors, making radios much more affordable.",Big,No -History of sound recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_sound_recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_audio_formats,1853,NA,1853,1877,NA,NA,NA,1896,1979,1925,1979,1930,1979,1966,1999,1979,1940,"Unclear when the physics of sound where first rigorously understood. I'm also putting the Walkman as the first cheap product, and Napster as the first cheap and great instance.","Maybe. There were different eras, and any of them could have had a discontinuity. For example, magnetic tape recordings were much better than previous technologies",Small,No -History of submarines,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_submarines,NA,NA,NA,-415,NA,NA,NA,NA,1690,NA,1864,NA,1888,NA,1955,NA,1900,1864,NA,"Yes. Drebbel's submarine ""seemed beyond conventional expectations of what science was thought to have been capable of at the time."" It also seems likely that development was sped up during major conflicts (American Civil War, WW1, WW2, Cold War)",Small,No -History of television,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_television,https://www.timetoast.com/timelines/the-evolution-of-televisions,1884,NA,1884,NA,NA,1908,NA,1922,1960,1955,1960,1980,2000,NA,NA,1960,1945,NA,"Maybe. Work on television was banned during WW2 and picked up faster afterwards. Perhaps with the super-Emitron in the 1930s (“The super-Emitron was between ten and fifteen times more sensitive than the original Emitron and iconoscope tubes and, in some cases, this ratio was considerably greater”)",Medium,No -History of the automobile,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_motor_and_engine_technology,1672,NA,1672,1824,NA,NA,NA,1886,1908,1908,1908,1938,1938,NA,NA,1908,1914,Ford's automation was a discontinuity,"Yes. In speed of production with Ford. Afterwards maybe with the Japanese (i.e., Toyota)",Big,No -History of the battery,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_battery,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_battery_types,1749,NA,1749,NA,1749,1749,1791,1800,NA,1960,NA,1980,NA,NA,NA,1920,NA,NA,"Maybe. There have been many types of batteries throughout history, each with different tradeoffs. For example, higher voltage and more consistent current at the expense of greater fragility, like the Poggendorff cell. Or the Grove cell, which offered higher current and voltage, at the expense of being more expensive and giving off poisonous nitric oxide fumes. Or the lithium-ion cell, which seems to just have been better, gotten its inventor a Nobel Price, and shows a pretty big jump in terms of, say, voltage. ",Small,No -History of the telephone,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_telephone,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_telephone,1667,NA,1667,NA,1667,1667,1871,1877,1960,1877,1960,1915,1960,1970,1970,1960,NA,NA,"Probably not. If so, maybe with the invention of the automatic switchboard.",, +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycoplasma_laboratorium",NA,NA,NA,1948,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"Two/three branches to artificial life: soft (program), hard (a robot, automata) and wet. That is, either trying to manipulate or do something similar to the biological life we know, or trying to program it.",Probably not.,,,,, +History of calendars,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_calendars,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unix_time,NA,NA,NA,1079,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1793,1793,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"Calendars are terrible. All I want is a unix epoch calendar without leap seconds in the style of the French revolution calendar (i.e., fractional time makes sense:: 1.4312h = 1h 43min 12secs). Leap seconds are the invention of the devil. “the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.”","Probably not. Maybe with the Khayyam calendar reform in 1079 in the Persian calendar, but it seems too precise to be true. “Because months were computed based on precise times of solar transit between zodiacal regions, seasonal drift never exceeded one day, and also there was no need for a leap year in the Jalali calendar. [...] However, the original Jalali calendar based on observations (or predictions) of solar transit would not have needed either leap years or seasonal adjustments.”",,,,, +History of candle making,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_candle_making#Middle_Ages,NA,-500,NA,-500,NA,NA,NA,NA,-500,NA,-500,NA,1750,1834,1850,1875,NA,NA,"I truth, candle-making is too general a category; almost as general as “burning things to produce light”.","Yes. With industrialization: “The manufacture of candles became an industrialised mass market in the mid 19th century. In 1834, Joseph Morgan, a pewterer from Manchester, England, patented a machine that revolutionised candle making. It allowed for continuous production of molded candles by using a cylinder with a moveable piston to eject candles as they solidified. This more efficient mechanized production produced about 1,500 candles per hour, (according to his patent "". . with three men and five boys [the machine] will manufacture two tons of candle in twelve hours""). This allowed candles to become an easily affordable commodity for the masses”",Small,No,,, +History of chromatography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_chromatography,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chromatography#History,1855,NA,1855,NA,NA,NA,NA,1952,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1950,1952,The field is pretty unknown to me.,"Probably not. Any of the new types could have been one, though.",,,,, +Chronology of bladed weapons,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_bladed_weapons#Bronze_Swords,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c94vhjGsC8M,-1700,NA,-1700,NA,NA,NA,NA,-600,NA,-216,802,NA,NA,1233,NA,NA,NA,The field is pretty unknown to me. ,Probably not. Though the Spanish tercios were probably discontinuous,,,,, +History of condoms,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_condoms,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._One_Package_of_Japanese_Pessaries,1564,NA,1564,NA,NA,NA,NA,1564,1940,1940,1940,1957,1957,NA,NA,1960,1564,NA,Probably not,,,,, +History of the diesel car,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_engine,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_diesel_car,1878,NA,1878,1895,1878,1895,1929,1929,NA,1935,NA,1986,NA,NA,NA,2000,NA,Half-way category error; the more natural thing may have been “history of the diesel *engine*. ,Yes. In terms of efficiency: the diesel engine’s point is much more efficient than the gasoline engine.,Medium,No,,, +History of hearing aids,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hearing_aids,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ear_trumpet,1634,NA,1634,NA,NA,NA,NA,1634,NA,1850,NA,1920,NA,1985,NA,1850,NA,NA,Probably not,,,,, +History of aluminium,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aluminium#History,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_aluminium,-500,NA,-500,1797,1530,1824,1856,1856,1950,1900,1950,1900,1950,1950,NA,1950,1957,"L3 fields refer to the refinement, rather than to the creation of Aluminium.",Yes. With the Bayer + Hall–Héroult processes in terms of cheapness.,Big,No,1886,2386,136 +History of automation,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automation#History,NA,-270,NA,-270,1868,NA,NA,NA,1788,NA,1905,NA,1960,NA,NA,NA,1975,NA,"Field unfamiliar to me. Also, field which generates discontinuities in other fields.","Maybe. If so, with controllers in the 1900s, or with the switch to digital in the 1960s. Kiva systems, used by Amazon, also seems to be substantially better than the competition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Robotics",Medium,No,,, +History of radar,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radar#Significance,NA,1887,NA,1887,1862,NA,NA,NA,1935,NA,1941,NA,1941,NA,1941,NA,1980,1945,"Developed extremely fast simultaneously by different countries during WWII, in relative secrecy",Yes. Development was extremely fast during the war.,Big,No,1934,47,47 +History of radio,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_radio,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invention_of_radio,1892,NA,1892,1865,1890,1894,1894,1903,1955,1903,1955,1920,1955,1960,1960,1955,1915,NA,"Yes. The first maybe discontinuity was with Marconi realizing the potential of electromagnetic waves for communication, and his superior commercialization. The second discontinuity was a discontinuity in price as vacuum tubes were replaced with transistors, making radios much more affordable.",Big,No,1957,65,65 +History of sound recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_sound_recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_audio_formats,1853,NA,1853,1877,NA,NA,NA,1896,1979,1925,1979,1930,1979,1966,1999,1979,1940,"Unclear when the physics of sound where first rigorously understood. I'm also putting the Walkman as the first cheap product, and Napster as the first cheap and great instance.","Maybe. There were different eras, and any of them could have had a discontinuity. For example, magnetic tape recordings were much better than previous technologies",Small,No,,, +History of submarines,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_submarines,NA,NA,NA,-415,NA,NA,NA,NA,1690,NA,1864,NA,1888,NA,1955,NA,1900,1864,NA,"Yes. Drebbel's submarine ""seemed beyond conventional expectations of what science was thought to have been capable of at the time."" It also seems likely that development was sped up during major conflicts (American Civil War, WW1, WW2, Cold War)",Small,No,,, +History of television,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_television,https://www.timetoast.com/timelines/the-evolution-of-televisions,1884,NA,1884,NA,NA,1908,NA,1922,1960,1955,1960,1980,2000,NA,NA,1960,1945,NA,"Maybe. Work on television was banned during WW2 and picked up faster afterwards. Perhaps with the super-Emitron in the 1930s (“The super-Emitron was between ten and fifteen times more sensitive than the original Emitron and iconoscope tubes and, in some cases, this ratio was considerably greater”)",Medium,No,,, +History of the automobile,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_automobile,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_motor_and_engine_technology,1672,NA,1672,1824,NA,NA,NA,1886,1908,1908,1908,1938,1938,NA,NA,1908,1914,Ford's automation was a discontinuity,"Yes. In speed of production with Ford. Afterwards maybe with the Japanese (i.e., Toyota)",Big,No,1913,241,163 +History of the battery,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_battery,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_commercial_battery_types,1749,NA,1749,NA,1749,1749,1791,1800,NA,1960,NA,1980,NA,NA,NA,1920,NA,NA,"Maybe. There have been many types of batteries throughout history, each with different tradeoffs. For example, higher voltage and more consistent current at the expense of greater fragility, like the Poggendorff cell. Or the Grove cell, which offered higher current and voltage, at the expense of being more expensive and giving off poisonous nitric oxide fumes. Or the lithium-ion cell, which seems to just have been better, gotten its inventor a Nobel Price, and shows a pretty big jump in terms of, say, voltage. ",Small,No,,, +History of the telephone,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_telephone,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_telephone,1667,NA,1667,NA,1667,1667,1871,1877,1960,1877,1960,1915,1960,1970,1970,1960,NA,NA,"Probably not. If so, maybe with the invention of the automatic switchboard.",,,,, History of the transistor,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_transistor,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_MOSFET#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipolar_junction_transistor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triode https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetrode https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer",1925,NA,1925,1947,1925,1947,1947,1953,1953,1969,1977,1975,1990,1990,2000,1957,1957,"Unclear where the boundaries of the concept are; i.e., triodes and other amplifiers serve similar functions","Maybe. Probably with the invention of the MOSFET; the first transistor which could be used to create integrated circuits, and which started Moore’s law. ",Big,No +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_Guidance_Computer",1925,NA,1925,1947,1925,1947,1947,1953,1953,1969,1977,1975,1990,1990,2000,1957,1957,"Unclear where the boundaries of the concept are; i.e., triodes and other amplifiers serve similar functions","Maybe. Probably with the invention of the MOSFET; the first transistor which could be used to create integrated circuits, and which started Moore’s law. ",Big,No,1957,32,32 History of the internal combustion engine,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_internal_combustion_engine,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Morland -https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a19854205/the-evolution-of-the-combustion-engine/",1660,NA,1660,1824,1671,1794,1807,1823,NA,1886,NA,1939,NA,1955,NA,1900,NA,NA,"Probably not. If so, jet engines. ",, -History of manufactured fuel gases,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_manufactured_fuel_gases,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1789,1794,1801,1803,1826,1812,1826,1870,NA,NA,NA,1826,NA,NA,Probably not.,, -History of perpetual motion machines,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_perpetual_motion_machines,NA,750,NA,750,1912,1150,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"No. None of them work, but I’m a fan of Cox's timepiece (uses variations in atmospheric pressure), and Brownian rachets. ",No.,, -History of the motorcycle,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_motorcycle,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_and_motorcycle_dynamics,1867,NA,1867,NA,NA,NA,NA,1884,1946,1915,1946,1923,1946,NA,NA,1915,NA,NA,"Probably not. If there is, perhaps in price for the first Vespa in 1946",, -History of multitrack recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_multitrack_recording,http://raymondscott.blogspot.com/2009/08/les-paul-raymond-scott.html,1881,NA,1881,NA,NA,NA,NA,1950,1990,1964,1990,1967,1995,1970,2000,1955,NA,NA,Maybe. It is possible that Les Paul’s experimenting was sufficiently radical to be a discontinuity.,Small,Yes +https://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/car-technology/a19854205/the-evolution-of-the-combustion-engine/",1660,NA,1660,1824,1671,1794,1807,1823,NA,1886,NA,1939,NA,1955,NA,1900,NA,NA,"Probably not. If so, jet engines. ",,,,, +History of manufactured fuel gases,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_manufactured_fuel_gases,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1789,1794,1801,1803,1826,1812,1826,1870,NA,NA,NA,1826,NA,NA,Probably not.,,,,, +History of perpetual motion machines,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_perpetual_motion_machines,NA,750,NA,750,1912,1150,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,"No. None of them work, but I’m a fan of Cox's timepiece (uses variations in atmospheric pressure), and Brownian rachets. ",No.,,,,, +History of the motorcycle,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_motorcycle,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bicycle_and_motorcycle_dynamics,1867,NA,1867,NA,NA,NA,NA,1884,1946,1915,1946,1923,1946,NA,NA,1915,NA,NA,"Probably not. If there is, perhaps in price for the first Vespa in 1946",,,,, +History of multitrack recording,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_multitrack_recording,http://raymondscott.blogspot.com/2009/08/les-paul-raymond-scott.html,1881,NA,1881,NA,NA,NA,NA,1950,1990,1964,1990,1967,1995,1970,2000,1955,NA,NA,Maybe. It is possible that Les Paul’s experimenting was sufficiently radical to be a discontinuity.,Small,Yes,,, History of nanotechnology,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_nanotechnology,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multigate_device#GAAFET https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_force_microscopy -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Applications_of_nanotechnology",1959,NA,1959,1981,1960,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1981,Technology hasn’t even gotten started,Probably not,, +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Applications_of_nanotechnology",1959,NA,1959,1981,1960,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,1981,Technology hasn’t even gotten started,Probably not,,,,, Oscilloscope history,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscilloscope_history,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tektronix https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heathkit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oscilloscope -https://books.google.at/books?id=Ac5iYqHCcucC&pg=PA165&lpg=PA165&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false",1884,NA,1884,NA,NA,NA,NA,1899,1947,1931,1947,1961,NA,1990,NA,1930,1945,I’m particularly unsure about this technology; my intuitive mapping from reading about the topic to “how good was this at this date” feels particularly thin. ,"Probably not. However, there were many advances in the last century, and any of them could have been one. ",, +https://books.google.at/books?id=Ac5iYqHCcucC&pg=PA165&lpg=PA165&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false",1884,NA,1884,NA,NA,NA,NA,1899,1947,1931,1947,1961,NA,1990,NA,1930,1945,I’m particularly unsure about this technology; my intuitive mapping from reading about the topic to “how good was this at this date” feels particularly thin. ,"Probably not. However, there were many advances in the last century, and any of them could have been one. ",,,,, History of paper,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_paper,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cotton_paper -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paper_wasp",-179,NA,-179,105,NA,NA,NA,-179,1900,200,1900,NA,1900,NA,1900,1500,105,NA,Maybe. Maybe with Cai Lun at the beginning. Probably with the industrial revolution and the introduction of wood pulp w/r to cheapness.,Small,No +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paper_wasp",-179,NA,-179,105,NA,NA,NA,-179,1900,200,1900,NA,1900,NA,1900,1500,105,NA,Maybe. Maybe with Cai Lun at the beginning. Probably with the industrial revolution and the introduction of wood pulp w/r to cheapness.,Small,No,,, History of polymerase chain reaction,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_polymerase_chain_reaction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUBJtHwHASA -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis",1971,NA,1971,1983,1957,1971,1984,1986,NA,1986,NA,1986,NA,1986,NA,1990,1986,Some ambiguities and fights about the “true inventor”,"Yes. Polymerase chain reaction *is* the discontinuity; a revolutionary new technology. It enabled many new other technologies, like DNA evidence in trials, HIV tests, analysis of ancient DNA, etc. ",Big,Yes -History of the portable gas stove,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_portable_gas_stove,NA,1929,NA,1929,NA,NA,NA,1932,1934,1936,1934,1936,1934,1936,NA,NA,1936,NA,"“Unfortunately Lafares design, however brilliant, was not enough to stop the German ranks marching over his homeland in 1940 after only 6 weeks. The majority of réchaud de gaz de dirigeant were melted down into what can only be assumed as scrap metal for the German war machine. However, from Jeu Lafare's stove the idea was adapted in various forms around the world during World War II and afterwards.”",Probably not,, +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kary_Mullis",1971,NA,1971,1983,1957,1971,1984,1986,NA,1986,NA,1986,NA,1986,NA,1990,1986,Some ambiguities and fights about the “true inventor”,"Yes. Polymerase chain reaction *is* the discontinuity; a revolutionary new technology. It enabled many new other technologies, like DNA evidence in trials, HIV tests, analysis of ancient DNA, etc. ",Big,Yes,1984,13,13 +History of the portable gas stove,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_portable_gas_stove,NA,1929,NA,1929,NA,NA,NA,1932,1934,1936,1934,1936,1934,1936,NA,NA,1936,NA,"“Unfortunately Lafares design, however brilliant, was not enough to stop the German ranks marching over his homeland in 1940 after only 6 weeks. The majority of réchaud de gaz de dirigeant were melted down into what can only be assumed as scrap metal for the German war machine. However, from Jeu Lafare's stove the idea was adapted in various forms around the world during World War II and afterwards.”",Probably not,,,,, History of the roller coaster,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_roller_coaster#History,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Mountains -https://www.britannica.com/topic/roller-coaster#ref910739",1784,NA,1784,NA,NA,NA,NA,1817,1845,1817,1845,1925,1959,1975,1975,1930,NA,Encyclopedia Britannica mentions precursors from the 15th century. Unclear if this is an error,Probably not,, +https://www.britannica.com/topic/roller-coaster#ref910739",1784,NA,1784,NA,NA,NA,NA,1817,1845,1817,1845,1925,1959,1975,1975,1930,NA,Encyclopedia Britannica mentions precursors from the 15th century. Unclear if this is an error,Probably not,,,,, History of the steam engine,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_steam_engine,"http://www.historyworld.net/wrldhis/PlainTextHistories.asp?ParagraphID=afq1 -https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_turbine",100,NA,100,NA,1551,1663,1698,1775,NA,1775,NA,1804,NA,1850,NA,1775,1775,I’m unclear on how large the improvement was from one type of engine to the next. Also interesting how Watt delayed the adoption of high pressure engine because he felt they were too dangerous and prone to explode (they were),Maybe. The Newcomen engine put together various disparate already existing elements to create something new. Watt’s various improvements also seem dramatic. Unclear abou the others.,Medium,No -History of the telescope,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_telescope,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reading_stone,1608,NA,1608,1754,NA,1608,1608,1609,NA,1758,NA,1990,NA,NA,NA,1700,1632,NA,"Maybe. If so, maybe after the serendipitous invention/discovery of radio telescopy",Small,No +https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steam_turbine",100,NA,100,NA,1551,1663,1698,1775,NA,1775,NA,1804,NA,1850,NA,1775,1775,I’m unclear on how large the improvement was from one type of engine to the next. Also interesting how Watt delayed the adoption of high pressure engine because he felt they were too dangerous and prone to explode (they were),Maybe. The Newcomen engine put together various disparate already existing elements to create something new. Watt’s various improvements also seem dramatic. Unclear abou the others.,Medium,No,,, +History of the telescope,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_telescope,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reading_stone,1608,NA,1608,1754,NA,1608,1608,1609,NA,1758,NA,1990,NA,NA,NA,1700,1632,NA,"Maybe. If so, maybe after the serendipitous invention/discovery of radio telescopy",Small,No,,, History of timekeeping devices,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_timekeeping_devices#Pocket_watch,"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_clock#Persia -",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,-2000,-2000,1100,1930,1750,1930,1927,1975,NA,NA,I’m unclear how expensive a clock was before the industrial revolution,"Maybe. Plausibly with the industrial revolution in terms of cheapness, then with quartz clocks, then with atomic clocks in terms of precision. ",Medium,No -History of wind power,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Early_Middle_Ages,NA,-5500,NA,-5500,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,800,NA,1930,NA,NA,NA,1930,1973,"Bias against old technology with unclear descriptions (i.e., non-European)","Maybe. If there is, maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Danish_development Tvindcraft",Small,No +",NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,-2000,-2000,1100,1930,1750,1930,1927,1975,NA,NA,I’m unclear how expensive a clock was before the industrial revolution,"Maybe. Plausibly with the industrial revolution in terms of cheapness, then with quartz clocks, then with atomic clocks in terms of precision. ",Medium,No,,, +History of wind power,https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Early_Middle_Ages,NA,-5500,NA,-5500,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,NA,800,NA,1930,NA,NA,NA,1930,1973,"Bias against old technology with unclear descriptions (i.e., non-European)","Maybe. If there is, maybe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_wind_power#Danish_development Tvindcraft",Small,No,,, diff --git a/ea/techprior/database_broad_vs_specific_categories.csv b/ea/techprior/database_broad_vs_specific_categories.csv new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a3f14ed --- /dev/null +++ b/ea/techprior/database_broad_vs_specific_categories.csv @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ +Technology,Broad field,Size of (plausible) discontinuity,Big,Medium,Small,None, +aviation,Yes,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +ceramics,Yes,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +cryptography,Yes,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +film,Yes,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +furniture,Yes,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +glass,Yes,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +nuclear,Yes,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +petroleum,Yes,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +photography,Yes,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +printing,Yes,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +rail transport,Yes,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +robotics,Yes,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +water supply and sanitation,Yes,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +artificial life,Yes,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +bladed weapons,Yes,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +aluminium,Yes,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +automation,Yes,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +perpetual motion machines,Yes,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +nanotechnology,Yes,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +timekeeping devices,Yes,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +wind power,Yes,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +,,21,5,6,3,7, +,,,0.238095238095238,0.285714285714286,0.142857142857143,0.333333333333333,1 +,,,,,,, +motorcycle,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +multitrack recording,No,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +Oscilloscope history,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +paper,No,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +polymerase chain reaction,No,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +portable gas stove,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +roller coaster,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +steam engine,No,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +telescope,No,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +cycling,No,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +spaceflight,No,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +rockets,No,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +calendars,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +candle making,No,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +chromatography,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +condoms,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +diesel car,No,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +hearing aids,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +radar,No,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +radio,No,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +sound recording,No,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +submarines,No,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +television,No,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +automobile,No,Big,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE, +battery,No,Small,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE, +telephone,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +transistor,No,Medium,FALSE,TRUE,FALSE,FALSE, +internal combustion engine,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +manufactured fuel gases,No,,FALSE,FALSE,FALSE,TRUE, +,,29,7,3,8,11, +,,,0.241379310344828,0.103448275862069,0.275862068965517,0.379310344827586,1