From 49ffafddc66108e021442bd01069b182aae13362 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Nu=C3=B1o=20Sempere?= Date: Mon, 6 May 2019 16:08:51 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] Update Self-experimentation-calibration.md --- rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md | 10 +++++----- 1 file changed, 5 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-) diff --git a/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md b/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md index dceb1eb..c4243e2 100644 --- a/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md +++ b/rat/Self-experimentation-calibration.md @@ -32,11 +32,11 @@ My Brier score is 0.0755985. The significant digits become relevant later. ## 2. How do I compare to a some simple regression models? I created four simple linear regression models and interpret their output as probability. I also consider a really really dumb predictor, for comparison purposes. -- 1. The first one regresses the binary outcome (1 if true, 0 if false) on the variables 3,4,7 and 10 outlined in the set up. That is, I consider the type of question, whether it was homework, normal or part of an exam, my score in the BDC and whether it was the first try or not. -- 2. The second includes all the data outlined in the set up, except my subjective probability. Or, in other words, all the above + {Hunch, Somewhat confident, Confident, Very confident, Incredibly Confident} as factors. -- 3. The third only regresses binary outcome on my subjective probability. -- 4. The fourth includes all the numerical factors outlined in the setup. -- 5. The fifth model is really dumb, and just outputs as a probability my total base rate. There were 505 questions, I got 451 right, so it outputs a probability of 451/505 every time. If it only gets partial data, it calculates the base rate for the data it has, and always predicts that afterwards. +1. The first one regresses the binary outcome (1 if true, 0 if false) on the variables 3,4,7 and 10 outlined in the set up. That is, I consider the type of question, whether it was homework, normal or part of an exam, my score in the BDC and whether it was the first try or not. +2. The second includes all the data outlined in the set up, except my subjective probability. Or, in other words, all the above + {Hunch, Somewhat confident, Confident, Very confident, Incredibly Confident} as factors. +3. The third only regresses binary outcome on my subjective probability. +4. The fourth includes all the numerical factors outlined in the setup. +5. The fifth model is really dumb, and just outputs as a probability my total base rate. There were 505 questions, I got 451 right, so it outputs a probability of 451/505 every time. If it only gets partial data, it calculates the base rate for the data it has, and always predicts that afterwards. Here is a table: