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@ -31,6 +31,9 @@ Question:
In our group, probablities ranged from 4% (my own estimate) to 25%. I obtained my 6% figure going to (life tables)[https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/lifeexpectancies/datasets/nationallifetablesunitedkingdomreferencetables], and searching for life expectancies at 80 and 92 years old. I created a simplified model in which the queen of england was just an English peasant, ditto for the king of Spain.
With those tables in mind, it's relatively easy to calculate the probability that the queen will still ve alive in X years, and that the king will die in exactly X years. Multiplying both to get the probability of both events happening, and summing over all possible years, I arrive at a probability of 5,5575% for the statement under discussion. I adjust this upwards a little bit to 6%, because the queen seems healthier, the king broke his hip, and I'd guess the English Health system has better top notch doctors. If I really cared about the result, I might consider the rate of death not per year, but per week/month (interpolating those from the values at the beginning and end of each year), and would take into account rising life expectancies.
## Day 3
{The Effective Altruism Group in Spain wanted to give a TedX talk. What probability do you assign to one being given by the end of 2019? Pro tip: Consider the question in the negative: What probability do you assign to one NOT being given by the end of 2019?}
## Hashes
Everything between {} is hashed through SHA3-512 (https://www.browserling.com/tools/sha3-hash), and published on Twitter (@NunoSempere).
This, of course means that corrections or notes can't be made.
@ -39,5 +42,7 @@ This, of course means that corrections or notes can't be made.
0addb6466a2fb3a537fa276e39306f2b57f8d31e66b826f57b62d141ff3de821fca5b9e35de06092c3847bc018b1531ecc3123e09b0f137700c2433b58f8781f
Notes: SHA-3 is replaced is interpreted as "SHA-4" is accepted as a standard.
## Day 2
### Day 2
3bb19d34fbb08347389f9d38cd5660235a5114df3890a052926d36988529b52fc3f72e27b00af88b1390b32591f54093d951abc7cbec94efb42f145d705786e0
### Day 3