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@ -5,22 +5,29 @@ Whatever happened to forecasting? April 2020
Forecasters may now choose to forecast any of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse: Death, Famine, Pestilence and War. Forecasters may now choose to forecast any of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse: Death, Famine, Pestilence and War.
### Augur [augur.net](https://www.augur.net/) ### Augur: [augur.net](https://www.augur.net/)
Augur, the blockchain prediction market, will be undergoing its [first major update](https://www.augur.net/blog/augur-v2/). Augur, the blockchain prediction market, will be undergoing its [first major update](https://www.augur.net/blog/augur-v2/).
### Predict It (predictit.org)[https://www.predictit.org/] ### Predict It: [predictit.org](https://www.predictit.org/)
The [world politics](https://www.predictit.org/markets/5/World) section is [overconfident on a Scottish independence referendum](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6236/Will-Scottish-Parliament-call-for-an-independence-referendum-in-2020) (though read the fine print), gives 16% to [Netanyahu leaving before the end of the year](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6238/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-Dec-31,-2020), and is uncertain whether [Maduro will remain President of Venezuela](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6237/Will-Nicol%C3%A1s-Maduro-be-president-of-Venezuela-on-Dec-31,-2020) by the same date (63%). The question on [which Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6655/Which-of-these-8-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next) also looks like it has a lot of free energy overestimating low probability events. In PredictIt, the [world politics](https://www.predictit.org/markets/5/World) section...
- is [overconfident on a Scottish independence referendum](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6236/Will-Scottish-Parliament-call-for-an-independence-referendum-in-2020) (though read the fine print).
- gives 16% to [Netanyahu leaving before the end of the year](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6238/Will-Benjamin-Netanyahu-be-prime-minister-of-Israel-on-Dec-31,-2020)
- gives 63% to [Maduro remaining President of Venezuela before the end of the year](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6237/Will-Nicol%C3%A1s-Maduro-be-president-of-Venezuela-on-Dec-31,-2020).
The question on [which Asian/Pacific leaders will leave office next?](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6655/Which-of-these-8-Asian-Pacific-leaders-will-leave-office-next) also looks like it has a lot of free energy overestimating low probability events.
### Replication Markets [replicationmarkets.com](https://www.replicationmarkets.com) ### Replication Markets [replicationmarkets.com](https://www.replicationmarkets.com)
Replication markets add [two market maker bots](https://www.replicationmarkets.com/index.php/2020/04/16/meet-the-bots/) and commence their 6th round. They also add a sleek new widget to visualize the price of shares better. Replication markets add [two market-maker bots](https://www.replicationmarkets.com/index.php/2020/04/16/meet-the-bots/) and commence their 6th round. They also add a sleek new widget to visualize the price of shares better.
### Coronavirus Information Markets [coronainformationmarkets.com](https://coronainformationmarkets.com/) ### Coronavirus Information Markets [coronainformationmarkets.com](https://coronainformationmarkets.com/)
For those who want to put their money where their mouth is, there is now a prediction market for coronavirus related information. The number of questions is small, and the current trading volume is $8000. For those who want to put their money where their mouth is, there is now a prediction market for coronavirus related information. The number of questions is small, and the current trading volume is $8000.
### Foretold ### Foretold
Foretold brings us estimates of [Active Infections throughout the world](https://www.foretold.io/c/1dd5b83a-075c-4c9f-b896-3172ec899f26/n/b24ccfcf-cdb8-431a-8004-b6af372cce1a), and a new [distribution builder](https://www.highlyspeculativeestimates.com/dist-builder). Foretold brings us:
- Estimates of [Active Infections throughout the world](https://www.foretold.io/c/1dd5b83a-075c-4c9f-b896-3172ec899f26/n/b24ccfcf-cdb8-431a-8004-b6af372cce1a).
- A new [distribution builder](https://www.highlyspeculativeestimates.com/dist-builder).
### Metaculus ### Metaculus