personal/nunosempere.github.io
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Forecasting Newsletter

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
Nuno Sempere 2020-07-01 11:38:30 +02:00
parent 11575b9a00
commit 17908d356c
3 changed files with 9 additions and 7 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

8
ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020.md
View File

@ -5,6 +5,8 @@
2. Foretell, a forecasting tournament by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, is now [open](www.cset-foretell.com). 2. Foretell, a forecasting tournament by the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, is now [open](www.cset-foretell.com).
3. [A Preliminary Look at Metaculus and Expert Forecasts](https://www.metaculus.com/news/2020/06/02/LRT/): Metaculus forecasters do better. 3. [A Preliminary Look at Metaculus and Expert Forecasts](https://www.metaculus.com/news/2020/06/02/LRT/): Metaculus forecasters do better.
Sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter), view this newsletter on the EA Forum [here](), or browse past newsletters [here](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/)
## Index ## Index
- Highlights. - Highlights.
- In the News. - In the News.
@ -13,13 +15,11 @@
- Hard to Categorize. - Hard to Categorize.
- Long Content. - Long Content.
Sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter), view this newsletter on the EA Forum [here](), or browse past newsletters [here](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/)
## In the News. ## In the News.
- Facebook releases a forecasting app ([link to the app](https://www.forecastapp.net/), [press release](https://npe.fb.com/2020/06/23/forecast-a-community-for-crowdsourced-predictions-and-collective-insights/), [TechCrunch take](https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/facebook-tests-forecast-an-app-for-making-predictions-about-world-events-like-covid-19/), [hot-takes](https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-prediction-markets-face-competition-from-facebook-forecasts)). The release comes before Augur v2 launches, and it is easy to speculate that it might end up being combined with Facebook's stablecoin, Libra. - Facebook releases a forecasting app ([link to the app](https://www.forecastapp.net/), [press release](https://npe.fb.com/2020/06/23/forecast-a-community-for-crowdsourced-predictions-and-collective-insights/), [TechCrunch take](https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/facebook-tests-forecast-an-app-for-making-predictions-about-world-events-like-covid-19/), [hot-takes](https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-prediction-markets-face-competition-from-facebook-forecasts)). The release comes before Augur v2 launches, and it is easy to speculate that it might end up being combined with Facebook's stablecoin, Libra.
- The Economist has a new electoral model out ([article](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/11/meet-our-us-2020-election-forecasting-model), [model](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president)) which gives Trump an 11% chance of winning reelection. Given that Andrew Gelman was involved, I'm hesitant to criticize it, but it seems a tad overconfident. See [here](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/06/19/forecast-betting-odds/) for someone else bringing the same criticism and Gelman answering. - The Economist has a new electoral model out ([article](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/11/meet-our-us-2020-election-forecasting-model), [model](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president)) which gives Trump an 11% chance of winning reelection. Given that Andrew Gelman was involved, I'm hesitant to criticize it, but it seems a tad overconfident. See [here](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/06/19/forecast-betting-odds/) for Gelman addressing objections similar to my own.
- [COVID-19 vaccine before US election](https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/wall-street-banking-covid-19-vaccine-election-200619204859320.html). Analysts see White House pushing through vaccine approval to bolster Trump's chances of reelection before voters head to polls. "All the datapoints we've collected make me think we're going to get a vaccine prior to the election," Jared Holz, a health-care strategist with Jefferies, said in a phone interview. The current administration is "incredibly incentivized to approve at least one of these vaccines before Nov. 3." - [COVID-19 vaccine before US election](https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/wall-street-banking-covid-19-vaccine-election-200619204859320.html). Analysts see White House pushing through vaccine approval to bolster Trump's chances of reelection before voters head to polls. "All the datapoints we've collected make me think we're going to get a vaccine prior to the election," Jared Holz, a health-care strategist with Jefferies, said in a phone interview. The current administration is "incredibly incentivized to approve at least one of these vaccines before Nov. 3."
@ -44,7 +44,7 @@ Ordered in subjective order of importance:
- [Replication Markets](https://predict.replicationmarkets.com/) might add a new round with social and behavioral science claims related to COVID-19, and a preprint market, which would ask participants to forecast items like publication or citation. Replication Markets is also asking for more participants, with the catchline "If they are knowledgeable and opinionated, Replication Markets is the place to be to make your opinions really count." - [Replication Markets](https://predict.replicationmarkets.com/) might add a new round with social and behavioral science claims related to COVID-19, and a preprint market, which would ask participants to forecast items like publication or citation. Replication Markets is also asking for more participants, with the catchline "If they are knowledgeable and opinionated, Replication Markets is the place to be to make your opinions really count."
- Good Judgement family - Good Judgement family
- [Good Judgement Open](https://www.gjopen.com/): Superforecasters were able to detect that Russia and the USA would in fact undertake some (albeit limited) form of negotiation, and do so much earlier than the general public, even while posting their reasons in full view. One thread to follow is [this one](https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1039968). - [Good Judgement Open](https://www.gjopen.com/): Superforecasters were [able](https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1039968) to detect that Russia and the USA would in fact undertake some (albeit limited) form of negotiation, and do so much earlier than the general public, even while posting their reasons in full view.
- Good Judgement Analytics continues to provide its [COVID-19 dashboard](https://goodjudgment.com/covidrecovery/). - Good Judgement Analytics continues to provide its [COVID-19 dashboard](https://goodjudgment.com/covidrecovery/).

7
ea/ForecastingNewsletter/README.md
View File

@ -1,9 +1,10 @@
## A Forecasting Newsletter ## A Forecasting Newsletter
A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter). The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least five more iterations. A monthly forecasting newsletter with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter).
## Past history ## Past history
- [March 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/March2020) (proof of concept) - [June 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020)
- [May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020)
- [April 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020) (experimental) - [April 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020) (experimental)
- [May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020) - [March 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/March2020) (proof of concept)

1
index.md
View File

@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
## Recent. ## Recent.
[Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020) (en)
[Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020) (en) [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/May2020) (en)
[Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9YJKugJ68qTFzMNCM/forecasting-newsletter-april-2020) (en) [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9YJKugJ68qTFzMNCM/forecasting-newsletter-april-2020) (en)
[Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally) (en) [Predict, resolve and tally](https://github.com/NunoSempere/PredictResolveTally) (en)