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Forecasting Newsletter

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- [The Challenges of Forecasting the Spread and Mortality of COVID-19](https://www.heritage.org/public-health/report/the-challenges-forecasting-the-spread-and-mortality-covid-19). The Heritage foundation brings us a report with takeaways of particular interest to policymakers. It has great illustrations of how the overall mortality changes with different assumptions. Note that criticisms of and suggestions for the current US administration are worded kindly, as the Heritage Foundation is a conservative organization.
- [Why most COVID-19 forecasts were wrong](https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/why-most-covid-19-forecasts-were-wrong-20200415-p54k40). Financial review article suffers from hindsight bias.
- [Banks are forecasting on gut instinct — just like the rest of us](https://www.ft.com/content/4b8108e5-b04c-4304-9f40-825076a4fed7). Financial Times article starts with "We all cling to the belief that somebody out there, somewhere, knows what the heck is going on. Someone — well-connected insider, evil mastermind — must hold the details on the coming market crash, the election in November, or when the messiah will return. In moments of crisis, this delusion tightens its grip," and it only gets better.
- ['A fool's game': 4 economists break down what it's like forecasting the worst downturn since the Great Recession](https://www.businessinsider.com/economists-what-its-like-forecasting-recession-experience-unemployment-coronavirus-2020-4). "'My outlook right now is that I don't even have an outlook,' Martha Gimbel, an economist at Schmidt Futures, told Business Insider. 'This is so bad and so unprecedented that any attempt to forecast what's going to happen here is just a fool's game.'"
- [IMF predicts -3% global depression](https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/). "Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression".
## Miscellanea
- [Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox](https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/philip-tetlock-tyler-cowen-forecasting-sociology-30401464b6d9); an interview with Tyler Cowen. Some highly valuable excerpts on counterfactual reasoning. Mentions [this program](https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/focus/focus-baa) and [this study](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022022105284495), on the forefront of knowledge.
- [COVID-19 Projections](https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america): A really sleek US government coronavirus model. See [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QuzAwSTND6N4k7yNj/seemingly-popular-covid-19-model-is-obvious-nonsense) for criticism. See also: [Epidemic Forecasting](http://epidemicforecasting.org/).
- [Atari, early](https://aiimpacts.org/atari-early/). "Deepmind announced that their Agent57 beats the ‘human baseline’ at all 57 Atari games usually used as a benchmark."
- [Assessing Kurzweil's 1999 predictions for 2019](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GhDfTAtRMxcTqAFmc/assessing-kurzweil-s-1999-predictions-for-2019). Kurzweil made on the order of 100 predictions for 2019 in his 1999 book *The Age of Spiritual Machines*. How did they fare? We'll find out, next month.
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- [Self-reported COVID-19 Symptoms Show Promise for Disease Forecasts](https://www.cmu.edu/news/stories/archives/2020/april/self-reported-covid-19-symptoms-disease-forecasts.html). "Thus far, CMU is receiving about one million responses per week from Facebook users. Last week, almost 600,000 users of the Google Opinion Rewards and AdMob apps were answering another CMU survey each day."
- [Lockdown Policy and Disease Eradication](https://www.isical.ac.in/~covid19/Modeling.html). Researchers in India hypothesize on what the optimal lockdown policy may be.
- [Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html).
- [The first modern pandemic](https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation). In which Bill Gates names covid-SARS "Pandemic I" and offers an informed overview of what is yet to come.
- [36,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html).

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## A Forecasting Newsletter
With a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter).
## Past history
- [March 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/March2020)
- [April 2020](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/April2020)