personal/nunosempere.github.io
1
0
Fork 0
Code Issues Pull Requests Packages Projects Releases Wiki Activity

Forecasting Newsletter June 2020

Browse Source
This commit is contained in:
Nuno Sempere 2020-07-01 10:56:33 +02:00
parent 571e4a1123
commit 11575b9a00
1 changed files with 10 additions and 2 deletions
Show Stats Download Patch File Download Diff File Expand all files Collapse all files

12
ea/ForecastingNewsletter/June2020.md
View File

@ -13,11 +13,13 @@
- Hard to Categorize. - Hard to Categorize.
- Long Content. - Long Content.
Sign up [here](https://mailchi.mp/18fccca46f83/forecastingnewsletter), view this newsletter on the EA Forum [here](), or browse past newsletters [here](https://nunosempere.github.io/ea/ForecastingNewsletter/)
## In the News. ## In the News.
- Facebook releases a forecasting app ([link to the app](https://www.forecastapp.net/), [press release](https://npe.fb.com/2020/06/23/forecast-a-community-for-crowdsourced-predictions-and-collective-insights/), [TechCrunch take](https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/facebook-tests-forecast-an-app-for-making-predictions-about-world-events-like-covid-19/), [hot-takes](https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-prediction-markets-face-competition-from-facebook-forecasts)). The release comes before Augur v2 launches, and it is easy to speculate that it might end up being combined with Facebook's stablecoin, Libra. - Facebook releases a forecasting app ([link to the app](https://www.forecastapp.net/), [press release](https://npe.fb.com/2020/06/23/forecast-a-community-for-crowdsourced-predictions-and-collective-insights/), [TechCrunch take](https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/facebook-tests-forecast-an-app-for-making-predictions-about-world-events-like-covid-19/), [hot-takes](https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-prediction-markets-face-competition-from-facebook-forecasts)). The release comes before Augur v2 launches, and it is easy to speculate that it might end up being combined with Facebook's stablecoin, Libra.
- The Economist has a new electoral model out ([article](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/11/meet-our-us-2020-election-forecasting-model), [model](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president)) which gives Trump an 11% chance of winning reelection. Given that Andrew Gelman was involved, I'm hesitant to criticize it, but it seems a tad overconfident. - The Economist has a new electoral model out ([article](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2020/06/11/meet-our-us-2020-election-forecasting-model), [model](https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president)) which gives Trump an 11% chance of winning reelection. Given that Andrew Gelman was involved, I'm hesitant to criticize it, but it seems a tad overconfident. See [here](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/06/19/forecast-betting-odds/) for someone else bringing the same criticism and Gelman answering.
- [COVID-19 vaccine before US election](https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/wall-street-banking-covid-19-vaccine-election-200619204859320.html). Analysts see White House pushing through vaccine approval to bolster Trump's chances of reelection before voters head to polls. "All the datapoints we've collected make me think we're going to get a vaccine prior to the election," Jared Holz, a health-care strategist with Jefferies, said in a phone interview. The current administration is "incredibly incentivized to approve at least one of these vaccines before Nov. 3." - [COVID-19 vaccine before US election](https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/wall-street-banking-covid-19-vaccine-election-200619204859320.html). Analysts see White House pushing through vaccine approval to bolster Trump's chances of reelection before voters head to polls. "All the datapoints we've collected make me think we're going to get a vaccine prior to the election," Jared Holz, a health-care strategist with Jefferies, said in a phone interview. The current administration is "incredibly incentivized to approve at least one of these vaccines before Nov. 3."
@ -27,7 +29,6 @@
- Survey of macroeconomic researchers predicts economic recovery will take years, reports [538](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-expect-a-quick-recovery-our-survey-of-economists-says-it-will-likely-take-years/). - Survey of macroeconomic researchers predicts economic recovery will take years, reports [538](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-expect-a-quick-recovery-our-survey-of-economists-says-it-will-likely-take-years/).
## Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms. ## Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.
Ordered in subjective order of importance: Ordered in subjective order of importance:
@ -82,6 +83,13 @@ Ordered in subjective order of importance:
- [FantasyScotus](https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/altitude-express-inc-v-zarda/) beat [GoodJudgementOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1300-in-zarda-v-altitude-express-inc-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-civil-rights-act-of-1964-prohibition-against-employment-discrimination-because-of-sex-encompasses-discrimination-based-on-an-individual-s-sexual-orientation) on legal decisions. I'm still waiting to see whether [Hollywood Stock Exchange](https://www.hsx.com/search/?action=submit_nav&keyword=Mulan&Submit.x=0&Submit.y=0) will also beat GJOpen on [film predictions](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1608-what-will-be-the-total-domestic-box-office-gross-for-disney-s-mulan-as-of-8-september-2020-according-to-box-office-mojo). - [FantasyScotus](https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/altitude-express-inc-v-zarda/) beat [GoodJudgementOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1300-in-zarda-v-altitude-express-inc-will-the-supreme-court-rule-that-the-civil-rights-act-of-1964-prohibition-against-employment-discrimination-because-of-sex-encompasses-discrimination-based-on-an-individual-s-sexual-orientation) on legal decisions. I'm still waiting to see whether [Hollywood Stock Exchange](https://www.hsx.com/search/?action=submit_nav&keyword=Mulan&Submit.x=0&Submit.y=0) will also beat GJOpen on [film predictions](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1608-what-will-be-the-total-domestic-box-office-gross-for-disney-s-mulan-as-of-8-september-2020-according-to-box-office-mojo).
- [How does pandemic forecasting resemble the early days of weather forecasting](https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-06-29/how-forecast-outbreaks-and-pandemics); what lessons can the USA learn from the later about the former? An example would be to create an organization akin to the National Weather Center, but for forecasting.
- Linch Zhang, a COVID-19 forecaster with an excellent track-record, is doing an [Ask Me Anything](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/83rHdGWy52AJpqtZw/i-m-linch-zhang-an-amateur-covid-19-forecaster-and), starting on Sunday the 7th; questions are welcome!
- [The Rules To Being A Sellside Economist](https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-rules-to-being-a-sellside-economist). A fun read.
> 5) How to get attention: If you want to get famous for making big non-consensus calls, without the danger of looking like a muppet, you should adopt ‘the 40% rule’. Basically you can forecast whatever you want with a probability of 40%. Greece to quit the euro? Maybe! Trump to fire Powell and hire his daughter as the new Fed chair? Never say never! 40% means the odds will be greater than anyone else is saying, which is why your clients need to listen to your warning, but also that they shouldn’t be too surprised if, you know, the extreme event doesn’t actually happen.
- [How to improve space weather forecasting](https://eos.org/research-spotlights/how-to-improve-space-weather-forecasting) (see [here](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018SW002108#) for the original paper): - [How to improve space weather forecasting](https://eos.org/research-spotlights/how-to-improve-space-weather-forecasting) (see [here](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018SW002108#) for the original paper):
> For instance, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite sits at the location in space called L1, where the gravitational pulls of Earth and the Sun cancel out. At this point, which is roughly 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, or barely 1% of the way to the Sun, detectors can provide warnings with only short lead times: about 30 minutes before a storm hits Earth in most cases or as little as 17 minutes in advance of extremely fast solar storms. > For instance, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite sits at the location in space called L1, where the gravitational pulls of Earth and the Sun cancel out. At this point, which is roughly 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, or barely 1% of the way to the Sun, detectors can provide warnings with only short lead times: about 30 minutes before a storm hits Earth in most cases or as little as 17 minutes in advance of extremely fast solar storms.