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@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. You can sign up [
## Index ## Index
- Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms. - Prediction Markets & Forecasting platforms.
- Augur. - Augur.
- PredictIt. - PredictIt & Election Betting Odds.
- Replication Markets. - Replication Markets.
- Coronavirus Information Markets. - Coronavirus Information Markets.
- Foretold. - Foretold.
@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ Forecasters may now choose to forecast any of the four horsemen of the Apocalyps
### Augur: [augur.net](https://www.augur.net/) ### Augur: [augur.net](https://www.augur.net/)
Augur, the blockchain prediction market, will be undergoing its [first major update](https://www.augur.net/blog/augur-v2/). Augur, the blockchain prediction market, will be undergoing its [first major update](https://www.augur.net/blog/augur-v2/).
### Predict It: [predictit.org](https://www.predictit.org/) ### Predict It & Election Betting Odds: [predictIt.org](https://www.predictit.org/) & [electionBettingOdds.com](http://electionbettingodds.com/)
In PredictIt, the [world politics](https://www.predictit.org/markets/5/World) section... In PredictIt, the [world politics](https://www.predictit.org/markets/5/World) section...
- is [overconfident on a Scottish independence referendum](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6236/Will-Scottish-Parliament-call-for-an-independence-referendum-in-2020) (though read the fine print). - is [overconfident on a Scottish independence referendum](https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6236/Will-Scottish-Parliament-call-for-an-independence-referendum-in-2020) (though read the fine print).
@ -48,21 +48,21 @@ Foretold brings us:
Metaculus brings us a series of tournaments and question series: Metaculus brings us a series of tournaments and question series:
- [The Ragnarök question series on terrible events](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) - [The Ragnarök question series on terrible events](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok)
- [Pandemic and lockdown series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/lockdown/) - [Pandemic and lockdown series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/lockdown/)
- [The Lightning Round Tournament: Comparing Metaculus Forecasters to Infectious Disease Experts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4166/the-lightning-round-tournament-comparing-metaculus-forecasters-to-infectious-disease-experts/). - [The Lightning Round Tournament: Comparing Metaculus Forecasters to Infectious Disease Experts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4166/the-lightning-round-tournament-comparing-metaculus-forecasters-to-infectious-disease-experts/). "Each week you will have exactly 30 hours to lock in your prediction on a short series of important questions, which will simultaneously be posed to different groups of forecasters. This provides a unique opportunity to directly compare the Metaculus community prediction with other forecasting methods." Furthermore, Metaculus swag will be given out to the top forecasters.
- [Overview of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasts](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/COVID-19/). - [Overview of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasts](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/COVID-19/).
- [The Salk Tournament for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccine R&D](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4093/the-salk-tournament-for-coronavirus-sars-cov-2-vaccine-rd/). - [The Salk Tournament for coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Vaccine R&D](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4093/the-salk-tournament-for-coronavirus-sars-cov-2-vaccine-rd/).
- [Lockdown series: when will life return to normal-ish?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/lockdown/) - [Lockdown series: when will life return to normal-ish?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/lockdown/)
### Good Judgement Project: [gjopen.com](https://www.gjopen.com/) ### Good Judgement Project: [gjopen.com](https://www.gjopen.com/)
The GJP has their usual challenges, plus one on [the Coronavirus Outbreak](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/43-coronavirus-outbreak), financed by the [Open Philantropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/good-judgment-inc-covid-19-forecasting). The GJP has their usual challenges, plus one on [the Coronavirus Outbreak](https://www.gjopen.com/challenges/43-coronavirus-outbreak), financed by the [Open Philantropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/biosecurity/good-judgment-inc-covid-19-forecasting), some similar in spirit to the short-fuse Metaculus Tournament.
Of the questions which have been added recently, the crowd [doesn't buy](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1580-before-1-january-2021-will-tesla-release-an-autopilot-feature-designed-to-navigate-traffic-lights) that Tesla will release an autopilot feature to navigate traffic lights, despite announcements to the contrary. Further, the aggregate... Of the questions which have been added recently, the crowd [doesn't buy](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1580-before-1-january-2021-will-tesla-release-an-autopilot-feature-designed-to-navigate-traffic-lights) that Tesla will release an autopilot feature to navigate traffic lights, despite announcements to the contrary. Further, the aggregate...
- is extremely confident that, [before 1 January 2021](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1595-before-1-january-2021-will-the-russian-constitution-be-amended-to-allow-vladimir-putin-to-remain-president-after-his-current-term), the Russian constitution will be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term. - is extremely confident that, [before 1 January 2021](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1595-before-1-january-2021-will-the-russian-constitution-be-amended-to-allow-vladimir-putin-to-remain-president-after-his-current-term), the Russian constitution will be amended to allow Vladimir Putin to remain president after his current term.
- gives a lagging estimate of 50% on [Benjamin Netanyahu ceasing to be the prime minister of Israel before 1 January 2021](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1498-will-benjamin-netanyahu-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-israel-before-1-january-2021). - gives a lagging estimate of 50% on [Benjamin Netanyahu ceasing to be the prime minister of Israel before 1 January 2021](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1498-will-benjamin-netanyahu-cease-to-be-the-prime-minister-of-israel-before-1-january-2021).
- and 10% for [Nicolás Maduro](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1423-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-june-2020). - and 10% for [Nicolás Maduro](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1423-will-nicolas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-1-june-2020).
- [forecasts famine](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1559-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-ethiopia-kenya-somalia-tanzania-or-uganda-in-2020) (70%). - [forecasts famine](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1559-will-the-un-declare-that-a-famine-exists-in-any-part-of-ethiopia-kenya-somalia-tanzania-or-uganda-in-2020) (70%).
- Of particular interest is that GJOpen didn't see the upsurge in tests (and thus positives) in the US until 1 day before they happened, for [this question](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1599-how-many-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-the-covid-tracking-project-report-as-of-sunday-26-april-2020) - Of particular interest is that GJOpen didn't see the upsurge in tests (and thus positives) in the US until 1 day before they happened, for [this question](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1599-how-many-total-cases-of-covid-19-in-the-u-s-will-the-covid-tracking-project-report-as-of-sunday-26-april-2020). Forecasters, including superforecasters, went with a linear extrapolation from the previous n (usually 7) days. However, even though the number of cases looks locally linear, it's also globally exponential, as [this 3Blue1Brown video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg) shows.
## In the News: ## In the News:
- [Forecasts in the time of coronavirus](https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/08/1586350137000/Forecasts-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/): The Financial times runs into difficulties trying to estimate whether some companies are overvalued, because the stock value/earnings ratio, which is otherwise an useful tool, is going to infinity as earnings go to 0 during the pandemic. - [Forecasts in the time of coronavirus](https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/08/1586350137000/Forecasts-in-the-time-of-coronavirus/): The Financial times runs into difficulties trying to estimate whether some companies are overvalued, because the stock value/earnings ratio, which is otherwise an useful tool, is going to infinity as earnings go to 0 during the pandemic.
@ -85,6 +85,7 @@ Of the questions which have been added recently, the crowd [doesn't buy](https:/
- [Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html). - [Using a delay-adjusted case fatality ratio to estimate under-reporting](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/severity/global_cfr_estimates.html).
- [The first modern pandemic](https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation). In which Bill Gates names covid-SARS "Pandemic I" and offers an informed overview of what is yet to come. - [The first modern pandemic](https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation). In which Bill Gates names covid-SARS "Pandemic I" and offers an informed overview of what is yet to come.
- [36,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html). - [36,000 Missing Deaths: Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html).
- There is a shadow industry which makes what look to be really detailed reports on topics of niche interest: Here is, for example, a [$3,500 report on market trends for the Bonsai](https://technovally.com/business-methodology-by-2020-2029-bonsai-market/)
## Long Content ## Long Content
- [Atari, early](https://aiimpacts.org/atari-early/). "Deepmind announced that their Agent57 beats the ‘human baseline’ at all 57 Atari games usually used as a benchmark." - [Atari, early](https://aiimpacts.org/atari-early/). "Deepmind announced that their Agent57 beats the ‘human baseline’ at all 57 Atari games usually used as a benchmark."