nunosempere.com/.snippets/2023-04-15-farmed-animal-model-nathan.squiggle

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// Fish (salmon)
value_happy_salmon_year_in_human_qalys = 0.001 to 0.01
value_tortured_salmon_year_in_human_qalys = -(0.002 to 0.02)
value_farmed_salmon_year_in_human_qalys = -0.02 to 0.01
// ^ purely subjective estimates
lifetime_salmon = 2 to 3
// https://thehumaneleague.org.uk/article/how-long-do-salmon-live
weight_salmon = 3.5 to 5 // kilograms
// ^ https://www.wildcoastsalmon.com/salmonlifecycle
calories_per_kilogram_of_salmon_meat = 1700 to 2100
calories_salmon = weight_salmon * calories_per_kilogram_of_salmon_meat
// ^ see <https://www.quora.com/How-many-calories-are-in-1kg-of-salmon>
salmon_estimates = {
name: "salmon",
value_year_in_human_qalys: value_farmed_salmon_year_in_human_qalys,
weight: weight_salmon,
calories: calories_salmon,
lifetime: lifetime_salmon
}
/* Fish Welfare Initiative
Sources:
- https://www.fishwelfareinitiative.org/
- https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/T5fSphiK6sQ6hyptX/opinion-estimating-invertebrate-sentience#Peter_Hurford
- https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Qk3hd6PrFManj8K6o/rethink-priorities-welfare-range-estimates
- https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/19/bayesian-adjustment-to-rethink-priorities-welfare-range-estimates/
Key simplification: assume that all fish are salmon. This is inaccurate, because salmon is a very particular & expensive species of fish. But I think it's ok to start with. Later I could easily add different species.
*/
fish_potentially_helped = 1M to 2M
shrimp_potentially_helped = 1M to 2M
improvement_as_proportion_of_lifetime = 0.05 to 0.5
value_fwi_fish =
fish_potentially_helped *
improvement_as_proportion_of_lifetime *
(value_happy_salmon_year_in_human_qalys / salmon_estimates.lifetime)
value_of_shrimp_in_fish = (0.3 to 1)
// ^ very uncertain, subjective
value_fwi_shrimp =
shrimp_potentially_helped *
improvement_as_proportion_of_lifetime *
(value_happy_salmon_year_in_human_qalys / salmon_estimates.lifetime) *
value_of_shrimp_in_fish
value_fwi_so_far = value_fwi_fish + value_fwi_shrimp