### Media mentions

[Mention in The Times in a column about the EA Hotel in Blackpool](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/The-Times.html)

[The Making of a Top Forecaster: Techniques to Boost Accuracy](https://www.infer-pub.com/blog/top-forecaster-techniques)

Various mentions in Astral Codex Ten, of [myself](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/the-passage-of-polymarket), or of Samotsvety Forecasting, my forecasting group:

> Enter Samotsvety Forecasts. This is a team of some of the best superforecasters in the world. They won the CSET-Foretell forecasting competition by an absolutely obscene margin, “around twice as good as the next-best team in terms of the relative Brier score”. If the point of forecasting tournaments is to figure out who you can trust, the science has spoken, and the answer is “these guys”.

Mention in a [large Spanish newspaper](https://elpais.com/tecnologia/2022-03-24/se-puede-predecir-el-futuro-de-la-guerra-en-ucrania-es-lo-que-intenta-una-comunidad-de-pronosticadores-en-internet.html) (also [in English](https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2022-03-26/is-it-possible-to-predict-the-future-of-the-war-in-ukraine-online-forecasting-communities-think-so.html)).

Mention in [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/28/opinions/nuclear-war-likelihood-probability-russia-us-scoblic-mandel/index.html) (search for "highly regarded forecasters").

[Worried About Nuclear War? Consider the Micromorts](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/micromorts-nuclear-war) on WIRED.

### Some maths stuff

- [Why is the integral which defines the logarithm the inverse of the exponential?](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/logarithms.pdf)  
- [Letter from O. Teichmüller to Landau](https://nunosempere.github.io/maths-prog/teichmuller.html)
- [Mathematicians under the Nazis](https://nunosempere.github.io/projects/mathematicians-under-the-nazis.html)

### Standing offers

- [I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure/)
- [Cancellation insurance](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/07/04/cancellation-insurance/)

### Truly random

- [Unfair chess](https://nunosempere.github.io/misc/unfairchess.html)
- [Splitting the timeline as an extinction risk intervention](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LKdwFsJXaFKHCE9ms/splitting-the-timeline-as-an-extinction-risk-intervention)