We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants
==============

_(Cross-posted from the [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/2022-01).)_

After the apparent success of [ACX grants](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220203090546/https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results)), we received $10k from an anonymous donor to give out as micro-grants through Nuño's [Forecasting newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com/).

Some examples of projects we'd be excited to fund might be:

*   Open-source software and tooling to automate forecasting. Bonus points if Metaculus users or other forecasters start using it.
*   Giving a shot at forecasting or making models of a difficult yet useful and decision-relevant area. Think of [Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215123/https://www.rootclaim.com/)) analyzing the lab-escape story of Omicron.
*   Pieces similar in quality to the ones mentioned in "[best pieces on forecasting from 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/looking-back-at-2021) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215143/https://forecasting.substack.com/p/looking-back-at-2021))”, in [Forecasting Prize Results](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8QFWHzmur4roAcnCf/forecasting-prize-results) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20211020014907/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8QFWHzmur4roAcnCf/forecasting-prize-results)), or in [some possible research areas](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize#Some_Possible_Research_Areas) (a).
*   Trying to estimate many uncertain parameters, e.g., the quality of all US or UN organizations, quality of academic fields, whether a large list of organizations will fail, enlightened willingness to pay for many products, the accuracy of many public figures, etc.
*   Create a [microcovid](https://www.microcovid.org/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215203/https://www.microcovid.org/)) or [foodimpacts](https://foodimpacts.org/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215225/https://foodimpacts.org/)) but for other areas, like micro-marriages, micro-insights, micro-dooms, etc. Do this in a way that easily allows the creation of many of these calculators.
*   Improve [metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215250/https://metaforecast.org/)) (which is [open source](https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast-website-nextjs) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215420/https://github.com/QURIresearch/metaforecast-website-nextjs))) in some interesting way, e.g., improve the estimates of forecast quality.

The application form is [HERE](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfqRa4YAiRKERfswee2Uapve0_UT62GayVF1JjtOvUobScEoQ/viewform) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215545/https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfqRa4YAiRKERfswee2Uapve0_UT62GayVF1JjtOvUobScEoQ/viewform)). Feel free to apply for more than $10k: we don't anticipate having much difficulty getting more funding for promising applications, and we may refer these to other funders (e.g., the [EA Infrastructure Fund](https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/ea-community) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215620/https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/ea-community))) if we can't.

We will be accepting applications until March 15, though we may extend this period if we don't receive enough high-quality submissions. We preliminarily plan to make decisions by April the 1st.

Otherwise, Luke Muehlhauser [comments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MDfesb7oYu8KhGvLR/forecasting-newsletter-december-2021?commentId=h53cogLD6t6xbnDFL#comments) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215653/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MDfesb7oYu8KhGvLR/forecasting-newsletter-december-2021?commentId=h53cogLD6t6xbnDFL#comments)) that forecasting related projects might be a good fit for the [EA Infrastructure Fund](https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/ea-community) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215620/https://funds.effectivealtruism.org/funds/ea-community)). Jonas Vollmer, who runs EA Funds, [confirms this](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MDfesb7oYu8KhGvLR/forecasting-newsletter-december-2021?commentId=uShQ4NAtaEdYJbJHD#comments) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215743/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MDfesb7oYu8KhGvLR/forecasting-newsletter-december-2021?commentId=uShQ4NAtaEdYJbJHD#comments))

For larger projects, the Survival and Flourishing Fund, backed by philanthropists Jaan Tallinn and Jed McCaleb, is organizing the distribution of around [$6M-$10M in grants](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-application) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215820/https://survivalandflourishing.fund/sff-2022-h1-application)) this June, with applications due on Feb 21. They generally only accept applications from registered charities, but [speculation grants](https://survivalandflourishing.fund/speculation-grants) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220202215854/https://survivalandflourishing.fund/speculation-grants)) might be a good fit for smaller projects (40%).