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blog/2022/10/12/forecasting-newsletter-september-2022/index.md
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@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ Browse past newsletters [here](https://forecasting.substack.com/), or view this
### PredictIt, Kalshi & the CFTC ### PredictIt, Kalshi & the CFTC
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/6k0Oz4A.jpg" class='.img-medium-center'> <img src="https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/12/forecasting-newsletter-september-2022/simpsons.jpg" class='.img-medium-center'>
America, Land of the Free America, Land of the Free
@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ Nostalgebraist looks at [AI forecasting one year in](https://nostalgebraist.tum
[Samotsvety Forecasting](https://samotsvety.org/), my forecasting group, looks at the probability of [various AI catastrophes](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EG9xDM8YRz4JN4wMN/samotsvety-s-ai-risk-forecasts) in the future, and at the [risk of a nuclear bomb being used](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221012124008/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022)) in the coming months (see also a [follow-up](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8k9iebTHjdRCmzR5i/overreacting-to-current-events-can-be-very-costly) by Kelsey Piper). [Samotsvety Forecasting](https://samotsvety.org/), my forecasting group, looks at the probability of [various AI catastrophes](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EG9xDM8YRz4JN4wMN/samotsvety-s-ai-risk-forecasts) in the future, and at the [risk of a nuclear bomb being used](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221012124008/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2nDTrDPZJBEerZGrk/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022)) in the coming months (see also a [follow-up](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8k9iebTHjdRCmzR5i/overreacting-to-current-events-can-be-very-costly) by Kelsey Piper).
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/rPuKJCg.png" class='.img-medium-center'> <img src="https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/12/forecasting-newsletter-september-2022/russia-nuclear-weapon.png" class='.img-medium-center'>
Taken from [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-use-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023). Note that money is worth less in the event of a nuclear war. Taken from [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/market/will-russia-use-a-nuclear-weapon-before-2023). Note that money is worth less in the event of a nuclear war.

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blog/2022/10/17/the-commons/index.md
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@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons
========================================================================== ==========================================================================
Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons. And through this giving and taking, people are able to smooth consumption. This is good because getting more ressources from the commons when you temporarily have fewer of them is more positive than giving ressources away when you temporarily have more of them. <figure> <img src="https://i.imgur.com/eiwMyEI.jpg"><br><figcaption> Engraving depicting the curse of [Tantalus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tantalus) </figcaption> </figure> Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons. And through this giving and taking, people are able to smooth consumption. This is good because getting more ressources from the commons when you temporarily have fewer of them is more positive than giving ressources away when you temporarily have more of them. <figure> <img src="https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/17/the-commons/tantalus.jpg"><br><figcaption> Engraving depicting the curse of [Tantalus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tantalus) </figcaption> </figure>
Anyways, a phenomenon I've noticed is that sometimes, you can only give to the commons, but you can't take from the commons. This is dysfunctional, and defeats the whole purpose of the commons. Anyways, a phenomenon I've noticed is that sometimes, you can only give to the commons, but you can't take from the commons. This is dysfunctional, and defeats the whole purpose of the commons.

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blog/2022/10/31/brief-thoughts-personal-strategy/index.md
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@ -9,11 +9,11 @@ Here are a few estimation related things that I can be doing:
Now, within the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) I have been kind of trying to do something like this: Now, within the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/) I have been kind of trying to do something like this:
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/jvSUjWX.png" class="img-frontpage-center"> <img src="https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/31/brief-thoughts-personal-strategy/strategy1.png" class="img-frontpage-center">
That is, I have in theory been trying to directly aim for the jugular of growing evaluation capacity directly. I believe that this is valuable because once that capacity exists, it can be applied to estimate the many things for which estimation is currently unfeasible. However, although I buy the argument in the abstract, I have been finding that a bit demotivating. Instead, I would like to be doing something like: That is, I have in theory been trying to directly aim for the jugular of growing evaluation capacity directly. I believe that this is valuable because once that capacity exists, it can be applied to estimate the many things for which estimation is currently unfeasible. However, although I buy the argument in the abstract, I have been finding that a bit demotivating. Instead, I would like to be doing something like:
![](https://imgur.com/IpISs4h.png) ![](https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/31/brief-thoughts-personal-strategy/strategy2.png)
I think I have the strong intuition that producing value in between scaling produces feedback that is valuable and that otherwise can't be accessed just by aiming for scaling. As a result, I have been trying to do things which also prove valuable in the meantime. This might have been to the slight irritation of my boss, who believes more in going for the yugular directly. Either way, I also think I will experience some tranquility from being more intentional about this piece of strategy. I think I have the strong intuition that producing value in between scaling produces feedback that is valuable and that otherwise can't be accessed just by aiming for scaling. As a result, I have been trying to do things which also prove valuable in the meantime. This might have been to the slight irritation of my boss, who believes more in going for the yugular directly. Either way, I also think I will experience some tranquility from being more intentional about this piece of strategy.