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blog/2022/10/27/are-flimsy-evaluations-worth-it/index.md

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 Are flimsy evaluations worth it?
 ================================
 
-*Status: Draft. I'll cross-post this to the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) in a few days. In the meantime, I've enabled comments below.*
-
 I recently received a bit of grief over a [brief evaluations of the impact of the top-10 billionnaires](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/21/brief-evaluations-of-top-10-billionnaires/). It seems possible that this topic is worth discussing. In what follows I outline a few non-exhaustive considerations, as well as a few questions of interest.
 
 <figure><img src="https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/duty_calls.png" class="img-frontpage-center"><br><figcaption>"Duty Calls"

blog/2022/11/15/forecasting-newsletter-for-october-2022/index.md

@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
+==============
+
+### Highlights
+
+*   Nuclear probability estimates spiked and spooked Elon Musk.
+*   [Council on Strategic Risks](https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/) hiring for a [full-time Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow](https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2022/10/11/were-hiring-strategic-foresight-fellow/) @ $78k to 114k
+*   [Markov Chain Monte Carlo Without all the Bullshit](https://jeremykun.com/2015/04/06/markov-chain-monte-carlo-without-all-the-bullshit/): Old blog post delivers on its title.
+
+### Index
+
+*   Prediction Markets, Forecasting Platforms &co
+    *   Kalshi
+    *   Manifold
+    *   Metaculus
+    *   Odds and Ends
+*   Opportunities
+*   Research
+    *   Shortform
+    *   Longform
+
+You can sign up for this newsletter on [substack](https://forecasting.substack.com), or browse past newsletters [here](https://forecasting.substack.com/). If you have a content suggestion or want to reach out, you can leave a comment or find me on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/NunoSempere).
+
+### Prediction Markets and Forecasting Platforms
+
+#### Kalshi
+
+The Bloomberg terminal now incorporates [Kalshi markets](https://nitter.it/mansourtarek_/status/1577323820607758337) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115163815/https://nitter.it/mansourtarek_/status/1577323820607758337)).
+
+Kalshi hosted a [competition to predict congressional races](https://kalshi.com/efc) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115163857/https://kalshi.com/efc)). If someone predicts all races correctly, they get $100k, otherwise the most accurate person will receive $25k. To be clear, this is a marketing gimmick, and participants make Yes/No rather than probabilistic predictions. But I thought I'd report on it given the high amount.
+
+#### Metaculus
+
+As Metaculus continues to build capacity, they have started to launch several initiatives, namely [Forecasting _Our World In Data_](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/forecasting-Our-World-in-Data/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221113203511/https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/forecasting-Our-World-in-Data/)), an [AI forecasting team](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/9dqyakpjfhuo2bmjn/metaculus-is-building-a-team-dedicated-to-ai-forecasting) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221018164037/https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/9dqyakpjfhuo2bmjn/metaculus-is-building-a-team-dedicated-to-ai-forecasting)), a ["Red Lines in Ukraine"](https://www.metaculus.com/project/red-lines/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221022082724/https://www.metaculus.com/project/red-lines/)) project, and a ["FluSight Challenge 2022/23"](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/flusight-challenge22-23/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221114021149/https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/flusight-challenge22-23/)). They are also [hiring](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/flusight-challenge22-23/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221114021149/https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/flusight-challenge22-23/))
+
+Metaculus [erroneously resolved](https://nitter.it/daniel_eth/status/1576842503210221568) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115163921/https://nitter.it/daniel_eth/status/1576842503210221568)) a question on whether there would be a nuclear detonation in Ukraine by 2023.
+
+#### Manifold
+
+An edition of the [Manifold Markets newsletter](https://news.manifold.markets/p/above-the-fold-visualising-market) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115163946/https://news.manifold.markets/p/above-the-fold-visualising-market)) includes this neat visualization of a group of markets through time:
+
+[<img src="https://i.imgur.com/36ev880.gif" class='.img-medium-center'>](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb6a94b58-5e91-4645-ac9d-51465d75cd84_1440x450.gif)
+
+Manifold's [newsletter](https://news.manifold.markets/p/above-the-fold-visualising-market) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115163946/https://news.manifold.markets/p/above-the-fold-visualising-market)) also has further updates, including on their bot for Twitch. They continue to have a high development speed.
+
+#### Odds and ends
+
+The US midterm elections were an eagerly awaited event in the prediction market world. Participating so as to make a profit requires a level of commitment, focus and sheer fucking will that I recognize I don't have. For coverage, interested readers might want to look to [StarSpangledGamblers](https://starspangledgamblers.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221109002400/https://starspangledgamblers.com/)), or check on the Twitters of various politics bettors, such as [Domah](https://twitter.com/Domahhhh) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220816131937/https://twitter.com/Domahhhh)), [Peter Wildeford](https://twitter.com/peterwildeford) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221109171713/https://twitter.com/peterwildeford)) or [iabvek](https://twitter.com/iabvek) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20210629221133/https://twitter.com/iabvek)).
+
+My forecasting group, Samotsvety, posted an [estimate of the likelihood](https://samotsvety.org/blog/2022/10/03/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022/) that Russia would use a nuclear weapon, including a [calculator](https://squiggle-tweaker.vercel.app/?code=eNqVU21P20AM%2FitWPzVVaVOgvEl82AYa1SpAKh2aliGZxElPXO6yuwsQAf99zqWl0A4QXy53ju3n8WP7oWVn%2Bm5S5jmaqnXgTEldbzpOhNNmYRFKOIFy8rcUWSZp4oxQWeug1e%2FDCcmCjI0UZpmhDB210ZgADqE9Ftb1DCVl7G1dGHTh4RHjuAu3KB%2BBbx2%2BPAXQh3aO901gB3Kh%2FDUIrtqD%2FjCIVKQY6bSMJaGB8sagUBQpU1qBU0t2%2FueSsNDKjtS08WAOS1K%2Fw97mbhfCXrjtz01%2FhgP%2F2ffnnj93%2FwQMFs9QZQQ5NdDaEbgZOj4IuF6hE9ApOJETCAuSUgelsgXFIhWUrDA%2B%2FXJxFimyMUp0Qquz0lmR0Jzmd3FLC8qXyMXcULJKfTB8wTMcbLGW4VV7Yxh4gy9iy1%2BHq%2ByXqBe65jFVsVbcXDagZJgPRexECuAz3P9TPDgNav4eM7xWffae8RA5zd7XIpv%2BmE6%2BCVf5DD7r8RuQq9L4djb67O%2FvNToNX7bYf9Z0eYG5Ksn7knWgFuRTlOeKjPICYwdCgdTWwUyX9d4YytmHpRiLlI7veYQcqrgaqV%2BslmU622Et304IrwtIsLKN0yFs7QwjVRjNq%2BaYyEmdeaSOsOLwnTp6sLcSjdeSLnRNuKCvlGpT68oyvfbilIU2vqD0nHQhaaSa%2Fl3O9JFoYnZ5yDxtSsZclwfnH28K7AeqPYANWCcRzOX9ELhx%2B0A7j7TUaZl7Tafa7nt0bvQ106og07zirBxKq3kieNN53kAkQttKxYa7HEPK7dSMY8t4BmibDBsw4v%2BElrdYG0ho8XjGZUXqIUCI%2BfZ%2BjHgemVfeP1GWBPi8ByJT5Nna0twygMqakDttZAKYOjL8WmzgnVBsmKfq9Xr1ePrXkbCFrMV4qPXgrV9t68G6qfGM1FPr6R87mSmY) so that people could more easily input their own estimates. This was followed by the [Swift Institute](https://www.swiftcentre.org/will-russia-use-a-nuclear-weapon/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115164115/https://www.swiftcentre.org/will-russia-use-a-nuclear-weapon/)), and both estimates were reported in [WIRED magazine](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/micromorts-nuclear-war). Since then the probability seems much lower, as the strategic situation becomes clearer.
+
+Some more pessimistic forecasts by [Max Tegmark](https://t.co/HTKLphcOxG) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221008130254/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent)) were seen by [Elon Musk](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1579099787864903680?lang=en), and may have played a role in Musk’s [refusal](https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-blocks-starlink-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10?r=US&IR=T) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221011175640/https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-blocks-starlink-in-crimea-amid-nuclear-fears-report-2022-10?r=US&IR=T)) for Ukraine to use his Starlink service over Crimea.
+
+One of the sharpest prediction market bettors [objected](https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1582128628472872960) to the above estimates, and I [followed up](https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1582160854434209792) with some discussion.
+
+Superforecaster Anneinak correctly goes with her gut—in contraposition with the polls—on the [Alaskan Congressional elections](https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1514904) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115164038/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1514904)).
+
+An academic initiative by the name of [CRUCIAL](https://www.crucialab.net) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115164150/https://www.crucialab.net/)) is looking at predicting climate change effects using prediction markets.
+
+### Opportunities
+
+The [Council on Strategic Risks](https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221102172141/https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/)) is hiring for a [full-time Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow](https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2022/10/11/were-hiring-strategic-foresight-fellow/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221020014121/https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/2022/10/11/were-hiring-strategic-foresight-fellow/)), and is offering $78,000 to $114,000 per year plus benefits. My impression is that this post would be impactful and policy-relevant.
+
+The [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/noDYmqoDxYk5TXoNm/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221030044825/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/noDYmqoDxYk5TXoNm/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top)) is still open, until the 1st of December. So far I only know of two applications, and since the pot is split between the participants, participation might have a particularly high expected monetary value.
+
+### Research
+
+#### Shortform
+
+Katja Grace looks at her [calibration in 1000 predictions](https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/calibration-of-a-thousand-predictions) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115164233/https://worldspiritsockpuppet.substack.com/p/calibration-of-a-thousand-predictions)):
+
+[<img src="https://i.imgur.com/FHAGMbl.png" class='.img-medium-center'>](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F65bf5450-edef-4e2d-bd1e-c8ee9fbca01a_648x630.png)
+
+Callum McDougall writes [Six (and a half) intuitions for KL divergence](https://www.perfectlynormal.co.uk/blog-kl-divergence) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221112073956/https://www.perfectlynormal.co.uk/blog-kl-divergence)).
+
+Terence Tao has [two](https://nitter.it/daniel_eth/status/1576842503210221568) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221115163921/https://nitter.it/daniel_eth/status/1576842503210221568)) introductory [blogposts](https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2022/10/07/a-bayesian-probability-worksheet/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221112164011/https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2022/10/07/a-bayesian-probability-worksheet/)) on Bayesian probability theory.
+
+I posted [Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BDXnNdBm6jwj6o5nc/five-slightly-more-hardcore-squiggle-models) ([a](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/10/five-slightly-more-hardcore-squiggle-models/)).
+
+#### Longform
+
+I came across this really neat explanation of Markov Chain Monte Carlo: [Markov Chain Monte Carlo Without all the Bullshit](https://jeremykun.com/2015/04/06/markov-chain-monte-carlo-without-all-the-bullshit/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221101105429/https://jeremykun.com/2015/04/06/markov-chain-monte-carlo-without-all-the-bullshit/)). It requires knowledge of linear algebra, but it was otherwise really neat. I would encourage readers who have heard about the method but never learnt how it works to give it a read.
+
+Sam Nolan &co create estimates [explicitly quantifying](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Nb2HnrqG4nkjCqmRg/quantifying-uncertainty-in-givewell-ceas) ([a](https://archive.ph/0kY8q)) the uncertainty in GiveWell’s cost-effectiveness analyses.
+
+[<img src="https://i.imgur.com/1VifplX.png" class='.img-medium-center'>](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F93e54c3d-f5df-495a-90e8-d3dc3482e2ef_1462x567.png)
+
+---
+
+Note to the future: All links are added automatically to the Internet Archive, using this [tool](https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220711161908/https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd)). "(a)" for archived links was inspired by [Milan Griffes](https://www.flightfromperfection.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221109123552/https://www.flightfromperfection.com/)), [Andrew Zuckerman](https://www.andzuck.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220316214638/https://www.andzuck.com/)), and [Alexey Guzey](https://guzey.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221111053555/https://guzey.com/)).
+
+---
+
+> \> In 1646, Magnenus estimated the number of atoms contained in a piece of incense from an argument based on the sense of smell (if a fraction of the grain is burned, the number of particles can be estimated from the volume within which the scent is still perceptible). His estimate for the number of particles in a piece of incense "not larger than a pea" was of the order of 10^18. This estimate is remarkably accurate, within about three orders of magnitude of the true value (based on the number of molecules in the unburned incense) and thus only one order of magnitude off in linear dimension of the molecule. Magnenus was by far the earliest scholar to give a reasonable estimate for the size of a molecule, the first "modern" estimate was given more than 200 years later, in 1865, by Josef Loschmidt
+> 
+> — Wikipedia, on [Johann Chrysostom Magnenus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Chrysostom_Magnenus)
+
+---

blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/analysis.R

@@ -0,0 +1,185 @@
+## Description:
+
+## Libraries
+
+### Install
+# install.packages("ggplot2")
+#install.packages("readr")
+
+### Load
+library("ggplot2")
+library("readr")
+library("ggthemes")
+library("magrittr")
+library("RColorBrewer")
+library("ggsci")
+
+
+## Data import
+setwd("/home/loki/Documents/core/ea/fresh/misc/openphil-funding")
+data <- read.csv("grants.csv", header=TRUE, stringsAsFactors = FALSE)
+
+## Data cleaning
+colnames(data)
+getYear <- function(dateRow){
+  year = strsplit(dateRow, " ")[[1]][2]
+  return(year)
+}
+getYear(data$Date[1])
+as.vector(sapply(data$Date, getYear))
+df <- list()
+df$year <- as.vector(sapply(data$Date, getYear))
+df$amount <- as.vector(sapply(data$Amount, parse_number))
+df$amount <- ifelse(is.na(df$amount), 0, df$amount)
+df$area <- as.vector(data$Focus.Area)
+
+df <- as.data.frame(df)
+## View(df)
+df$area <- as.vector(data$Focus.Area)
+
+areas <- unique(df$area)
+
+ea_growth <-  c("Effective Altruism Community Growth", "Effective Altruism Community Growth (Global Health and Wellbeing)")
+global_health <- c("South Asian Air Quality", "Human Health and Wellbeing", "GiveWell-Recommended Charities", "Global Aid Policy", "Global Health & Wellbeing", "Global Health & Development","Science for Global Health")
+longtermism <- c("Biosecurity & Pandemic Preparedness", "Potential Risks from Advanced AI", "Science Supporting Biosecurity and Pandemic Preparedness", "Longtermism")
+animal_welfare <- c("Farm Animal Welfare", "Broiler Chicken Welfare", "Cage-Free Reforms", "Alternatives to Animal Products")
+scientific_research <- c("Transformative Basic Science", "Scientific Research", "Other Scientific Research Areas", "Scientific Innovation: Tools and Techniques")
+politicy_advocacy <- c("Land Use Reform","Macroeconomic Stabilization Policy", "Criminal Justice Reform", "Immigration Policy")
+not_other <- c(ea_growth, global_health, longtermism, animal_welfare, scientific_research, politicy_advocacy)
+other <- areas[!(areas %in% not_other)]
+
+df$area <- ifelse(df$area %in% ea_growth, "EA Community Building", df$area)
+df$area <- ifelse(df$area %in% global_health, "Global Health and Wellbeing", df$area)
+df$area <- ifelse(df$area %in% longtermism, "Longtermism & GCRs", df$area)
+df$area <- ifelse(df$area %in% animal_welfare, "Animal Welfare", df$area)
+df$area <- ifelse(df$area %in% scientific_research, "Scientific Research", df$area)
+df$area <- ifelse(df$area %in% politicy_advocacy, "Policy Advocacy", df$area)
+df$area <- ifelse(df$area %in% other, "Other", df$area)
+df$area
+# df <- df[order(df$area),]
+
+## Aggregate by year and area
+years <- c(2014: 2022)# as.vector(unique(df$year))
+num_years <- length(years)
+area_names <- as.vector(unique(df$area))
+num_areas <- length(area_names)
+
+df2 <- list()
+df2$area <- sort(rep(area_names, num_years))
+df2$year <- rep(years, num_areas)
+df2 <- as.data.frame(df2)
+ 
+# View(df2)
+
+getAmountForYearAreaPair <- function(target_year, target_area){
+  filter = dplyr::filter
+  # target_year = 2022
+  # target_area = "Longtermism"
+  rows = df %>% filter(year == target_year) %>% filter(area == target_area)
+  return(sum(rows$amount))
+}
+getAmountForYearAreaPair(2022, "Longtermism")
+
+amounts <- c()
+for(i in c(1:dim(df2)[1])){
+  amount <- getAmountForYearAreaPair(df2$year[i], df2$area[i])
+  amounts <- c(amounts, amount)
+}
+df2$amount <- amounts
+# View(df2)
+
+## Plotting
+title_text="Open Philanthropy allocation by year and cause area"
+subtitle_text="with my own aggregation of categories"
+palette = "Classic Red-Blue"
+direction = -1
+open_philanthropy_plot <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area, group=amount))+
+  geom_bar(stat="identity")+
+  labs(
+    title=title_text,
+    subtitle=subtitle_text,
+    x=element_blank(),
+    y=element_blank()
+  ) +
+  # scale_fill_wsj() +
+  # scale_fill_tableau(dir =1) +
+  # scale_fill_tableau(palette, dir=direction) +
+  # scale_fill_viridis(discrete = TRUE) +
+  # scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set2") +
+  
+  scale_fill_d3( "category20", alpha=0.8) +
+  # scale_fill_uchicago("dark") +
+  # scale_fill_startrek() +
+  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::dollar_format(scale = 0.000001, suffix = "M"), breaks = c(0:6)*10^8)+
+  scale_x_continuous(breaks = years)+
+  theme_tufte() +
+  theme(
+    legend.title = element_blank(),
+    plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
+    plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
+    legend.position="bottom",
+    legend.box="vertical",
+    axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1),
+    legend.text=element_text(size=7, hjust = 0.5)
+  ) + 
+  guides(fill=guide_legend(nrow=3,byrow=TRUE))
+getwd() ## Working directory on which the file will be saved. Can be changed with setwd("/your/directory")
+height = 5
+width = 5
+ggsave(plot=open_philanthropy_plot, "open_philanthropy_grants_stacked.png", width=width, height=height, bg = "white")
+
+## Including Dustin Moskovitz's wealth 
+coeff <- 10^7*4
+wealth <- c(6, 8, 12, 15, 18, 12, 14, 19, 14)
+df2$wealth <- rep(wealth * coeff, num_areas)
+
+open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune <- ggplot(data=df2, aes(x=year, y=amount, fill=area, group=amount))+
+  geom_bar(stat="identity")+
+  geom_point(aes(x=year, y=wealth), size=2, color="darkblue", shape=4)+
+  labs(
+    title=title_text,
+    subtitle=subtitle_text,
+    x=element_blank(),
+    y=element_blank()
+  ) +
+  # scale_fill_wsj() +
+  # scale_fill_tableau(dir =1) +
+  # scale_fill_tableau(palette, dir=direction) +
+  # scale_fill_viridis(discrete = TRUE) +
+  # scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set2") +
+  
+  scale_fill_d3( "category20", alpha=0.8) +
+  # scale_fill_uchicago("dark") +
+  # scale_fill_startrek() +
+  scale_y_continuous(
+    labels = scales::dollar_format(scale = 0.000001, suffix = "M"), 
+    name="OpenPhil donations", 
+    breaks = c(0:5)*10^8, 
+    sec.axis = sec_axis(
+      ~.*1, 
+      name="Dustin Moskovitz's fortune\n(est. Bloomberg)", 
+      breaks = seq(0,20,by=5)*coeff,
+      labels = c("$0B", "$5B","$10B","$15B", "$20B")
+      ),
+    limits=c(0,8*10^8)
+    )+
+  scale_x_continuous(breaks = years)+
+  theme_tufte() +
+  theme(
+    legend.title = element_blank(),
+    plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
+    plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0.5),
+    legend.position="bottom",
+    legend.box="vertical",
+    axis.text.x=element_text(angle=60, hjust=1),
+    axis.title.y = element_text(vjust=3, hjust=0.25, size=10),
+    axis.title.y.right = element_text(vjust=3, hjust=0.5, size=10),
+    legend.text=element_text(size=8)
+  ) + 
+  guides(fill=guide_legend(nrow=4,byrow=TRUE))
+# open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune
+
+height = 6
+width = 5
+
+ggsave(plot=open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune, "open_philanthropy_plot_with_fortune.png", width=width, height=height, bg = "white")

blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/.source/analyze.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+#!/bin/bash
+
+cd /home/loki/Documents/core/ea/fresh/misc/openphil-funding
+
+# wget https://www.openphilanthropy.org/wp-admin/admin-ajax.php?action=generate_grants&nonce=1920c9d172 -O grants.csv
+# rm admin-ajax.php?action=generate_grants
+Rscript analysis.R

blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/index.md

@@ -0,0 +1,46 @@
+Some data on the stock of EA™ funding 
+=====================================
+
+### Overall Open Philanthropy funding
+
+Open Philanthropy's allocation of funding through time looks as follows:
+
+![](https://i.imgur.com/RwD1pP9.png)
+
+Dustin Moskovitz's wealth looks, per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/dustin-a-moskovitz), like this:
+
+![](https://i.imgur.com/cObIgOQ.png)
+
+If we plot the two together, we don't see that much of a correlation:
+
+![](https://i.imgur.com/NhhiLqd.png)
+
+Holden Karnofsky, head of Open Philanthropy, [writes](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mCCutDxCavtnhxhBR/some-comments-on-recent-ftx-related-events) that the Blomberg estimates might not be all that accurate:
+
+> Our available capital has fallen over the last year for these reasons. That said, as of now, public reports of Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna’s net worth give a substantially understated picture of our available resources. That’s because, among other issues, they don’t include resources that are already in foundations. (I also note that META stock is not as large a part of their portfolio as some seem to assume)
+
+In mid 2022, Forbes put Sam Bankman-Fried's wealth at [$24B](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-bankman-fried/?sh=706b96804449). So in some sense, the amount of money allocated to or according to Effective Altruism™ peaked somewhere close to $50B.
+
+### Funding flow restricted to longtermism & global catatrophic risks (GCRs)
+
+The analysis becomes a bit more interesting if we look only at longtermism and GCRs:
+
+![](https://i.imgur.com/OZwHMtV.png)
+
+In contrast, per [Forbes](https://web.archive.org/web/20221116022228/https://fortune.com/2022/11/14/balkman-fried-ftx-collapse-threatens-effective-altruism-billions-charity-philanthropy/), the FTX Foundation had given out $160M by September 2022. My sense is that most (say, maybe 50% to 80%) of those grants went to "longtermist" cause areas, broadly defined. In addition, SBF and other FTX employees led a $580M funding round for [Anthropic](https://www.privateequitywire.co.uk/2022/05/05/314319/ftx-ceo-leads-580m-series-b-round-anthropic)
+
+### Further analysis 
+
+It's unclear what would have to happen for Open Philanthropy to pick up the slack here. In practical terms, I'm not sure whether their team has enough evaluation capacity for an additional $100M/year, or whether they will choose to expand that. 
+
+Two somewhat informative posts from Open Philanthropy on this are [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HPdWWetJbv4z8eJEe/open-phil-is-seeking-applications-from-grantees-impacted-by) and [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mCCutDxCavtnhxhBR/some-comments-on-recent-ftx-related-events)
+
+I'd be curious about both interpretative analysis and forecasting on these numbers. I am up for supporting the later by e.g., committing to rerunning this analysis in a year.
+
+### Appendix: Code
+
+The code to produce these plots can be found [here](./.source/analysis.R); lines 42 to 48 make the division into categories fairly apparent. To execute this code you will need a working R installation and a document named [grants.csv](./.source/grants.csv), which can be downloaded from [Open Philanthropy's website](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/).
+
+<p><section id="isso-thread">
+  <noscript>Javascript needs to be activated to view comments.</noscript>
+</section></p>

gossip/index.md

@@ -1,5 +1,11 @@
 ## Gossip
 
+_2022/11/20_: I've updated my tally of EA funding @ [Some data on the stock of EA™ funding](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding/). It's possible that the comparison with the now absent FTX funding might be enlightening to readers.
+
+![](https://i.imgur.com/RwD1pP9.png)
+
+![](https://i.imgur.com/OZwHMtV.png)
+
 _2022/10/31_: I've added an [email subscription option](https://nunosempere.com/.subscribe/) for this blog, as well as for [samotsvety.org](https://samotsvety.org/.subscribe/).
 
 _2022/08/30_: Per [this blogpost](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tekdQKdfFe3YJTwML/end-to-end-encryption-for-ea#comments), I'm making my public key available [here](https://nunosempere.com/gossip/.nuno-sempere-public-key.txt). I can be contacted at nuno dot sempere dot lh at protonmail dot com.