feat: add content
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.secret/how-to.md
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.secret/how-to.md
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# How to create an autarchic website: the easy way
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> Where to host the blog: Our Recommendation: Use Substack or try out a hosted Ghost website—it’s a Goldilocks solution of easy-to-use but highly customizable. Ghost makes for a great portfolio site, blog, and newsletter service.
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[Effective Ideas: Where to host the blog](https://effectiveideas.org/how-to-start-a-blog/#pt3)
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Fuck that. Vat do I vant, and in vat order? Uncensorability, ability to ramp up degrees of privacy and paranoia, control over ze whole stack, and finally, ze modern comforts. Vith that in mind, I present: Doctor Nefarious' guide to uncensorability.
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What is this meant for? Some recent examples:
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- [Youtube-dl being banned by Github](https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2020/11/github-reinstates-youtube-dl-after-riaas-abuse-dmca)
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- The Canadian government [fucking around with Canadian truckers' freedom of speech](https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1494444624630403083)
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## Get you a password manager for great security
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For this, I recommend [pass](https://www.passwordstore.org/) (see also the [archlinux wiki](https://wiki.archlinux.org/title/Pass)). Simple, secure.
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## Get an email
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[Protonmail](https://protonmail.com/) is fine.
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```
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function newpassword(){
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characters="\!#\$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[]^_\`abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz{|}~"
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length=25
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read -r -n $length new_password < <(LC_ALL=C tr -dc "$characters" < /dev/urandom)
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echo $new_password
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} ## Taken from pass generate. Maybe save this in your .bashrc
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newpassword
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pass insert -m autarchy/protonmail ## Then save both the email address and the password.
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## You can then recall your password with pass show autarchy/protonmail
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```
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Mad Eye Moody recommends: Don't give Protonmail a backup email. But make sure to make backups of your passwords. You can access Protonmail over [Tor](https://torproject.org/) [here](https://mail.protonmailrmez3lotccipshtkleegetolb73fuirgj7r4o4vfu7ozyd.onion). For previous steps, you can register an [XMPP identity](https://www.shad0w.io/). Better yet, do your own research on which services are the most secure.
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## Register a domain
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For zis, ve will use, of course, [njal.la](https://njal.la/). The're the non-evil twin brother of [Epik domains](https://www.epik.com/). From their [FAQ](https://njal.la/faq/):
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> We're a team of committed internet activists and we're also involved in other privacy projects such as the IPredator VPN service. Some of us have also been involved in projects like The Pirate Bay and Piratbyrån to mention a few things.
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> We support signing up for our service using email or XMPP (and yes, we use OTR). For email we also support PGP so all of our outgoing email will be signed and encrypted.
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> We accept payments via Bitcoin, Litecoin, Monero, ZCash, DASH, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Paypal.
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They also have [a blog](https://njal.la/blog/) vere they record takedown requests:
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All in all, zis is ze good shit.
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For this, you will need to setup an account on njal.la, using the email you previously created
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```
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newpassword
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pass insert -m autarchy/njalla-account ## save both password and user
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## You can later recall this with pass show autarchy/njalla
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```
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Mad Eye Moody recommends: Use tornado cash (https://tornado.cash/) to anonymize your transaction history before paying njalla. Check which top-level domain names are more uncensorable (https://www.eff.org/files/2017/08/02/domain_registry_whitepaper.pdf). Ultimately, if we wanted further anonymity and uncensorability, we would [set up an onion service](https://community.torproject.org/onion-services/setup/).
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## Step 2: Get a server
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Previously, I have been using an Ubuntu server on [Digital Ocean](digitalocean.com), which offers servers from $5/month ($6/month including backups). But I have grown to dislike my system having 1GB worth of stuff that I don't understand. I also dislike wrangling with systemd services.
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So I thought it would be fun to try Alpine Linux on [Njal.la's own servers](https://njal.la/servers/add/). This costs $15/month instead.
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When buying a server from Njalla, we need to name it. And we will name it [`ramiel`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramiel) [^1]. We will also need to generate an ssh key to connect to it. The command to do this is `ssh-keygen -t ed25519`. After paying for our server, we'll want to set up payment to autorenew.
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[^1]: Why Ramiel? Because Uriel is dead
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## Step 3: Set up the server
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Our setup will looks as follows:
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We can connect to our server with
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```
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ssh root@your_ip
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```
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Then add some essential tooling:
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```
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apk add vim
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apk add sudo
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apk add git
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```
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Create a new user with root permissions
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### Add a new user with root permissions
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Strictly speaking you could do everything as root, but this feels dirty. Instead, we will create two new users, one root user for admin tasks, called `ramiel`, and one user for normal operation of web assets, named `www`. The below process probably contains some bugs, which stackoverflow or the alpine/arch linux wiki should solve.
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#### Create new user:
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```
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adduser ramiel
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apk add doas
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adduser ramiel wheel
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mkdir -p /home/ramiel
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mkdir /home/ramiel/.ssh
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```
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#### Give it wide permissions and add it to the sudoers group
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Add `permit persist :wheel` to `/etc/doas.d/doas.conf`
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Then use `visudo` to edit `/etc/sudoers`, and add
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```
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ramiel ALL=(ALL) ALL
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```
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### Allow us to log in with ssh
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```
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cp /root/.ssh/authorized_keys /home/ramiel/.ssh/authorized_keys
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chown ramiel /home/ramiel/.ssh/authorized_keys
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```
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In `/etc/ssh/sshd_config`, change:
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```
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PasswordAuthentication no
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PermitRootLogin prohibit-password
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```
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to:
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```
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PasswordAuthentication no
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PermitRootLogin yes
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```
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Then restart the ssh service
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```
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service sshd restart
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exit
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```
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Connect with our new user
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```
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ssh ramiel@your_ip
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```
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## Install nginx
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Here we make our first—of many—compromises with the suckless philosophy. Unlike simpler web servers, nginx is not suckless. However, I do have a job, and I'm choosing nginx because it has good integration with certbot, the certificates bot from the Electronic Freedom Foundation.
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To install nginx, follow instructions from [here](https://wiki.alpinelinux.org/wiki/Nginx). In this case, I chose to create a folder in the `/home/www` directory, rather than directly in `/www`. This is probably some residual scaredness from when I didn't want to play around too much with directories outside the home directory.
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```
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apk update
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apk add nginx
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adduser -D -g 'www' www
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chown -R www:www /var/lib/nginx
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mkdir /home/www
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chown -R www:www /home/www
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```
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We also want nginx to boot up at startup
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```
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rc-update add nginx default
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```
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## Install werc
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[Werc](https://werc.cat-v.org/) is a work of genius by the mad architect Uriel. It describes itself as a "a minimalist web anti-framework built following the Unix and Plan 9 tool philosophy of software design". It is a more hardcore version of Jekyll, Pelican, Blogger, or Wordpress.
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```
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cd /home/www
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mkdir werc
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cd werc
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wget --no-check-certificate https://werc.cat-v.org/download/werc-1.5.0.tar.gz
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sha512sum werc-1.5.0.tar.gz
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## 06695bf0798d28821500d84339f873a712ceb53cec6dc5bc641a47945a811515657e749c1d8c6cfeba42432ec8557397db9231ff4b5d2eec581a5ff063ab6648 werc-1.5.0.tar.gz
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tar x -f werc-1.5.0.tar.gz
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cd werc-1.5.0
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```
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Initialize a git repository
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```
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git init
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git add .
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git commit -m "feat: start keeping track of atomic changes on top of werc-1.5.0"
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git remote add
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```
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It's good discipline to keep track of changes which are more or less atomic. This facilitates you remembering what changes you've done, and allows you to contribute back.
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Alternatively, pull in my tweaks:
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```
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git init
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git add .
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git remote add tweaks https://github.com/NunoSempere/werc-1.5.0-tweaks.git
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git pull tweaks master
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```
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These tweaks are a bit opinionated (e.g., they assume that you will set-up https). But they also make daily work more pleasant. Proceed at your own caution.
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Mad Eye Moody recommends: Go through the [commit history](https://github.com/NunoSempere/werc-1.5.0-tweaks/commits/master) and pick and choose instead.
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### Install plan9port
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I might be able to get werc working with musl. But I can't be arsed. Instead, I am installing plan9port side by side.
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Add the following line:
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```
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https://dl-cdn.alpinelinux.org/alpine/v3.15/community/
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```
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to the `/etc/apk/repositories` file, to get access to community packages.
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Then install plan9port
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```
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apk install plan9port
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## https://pkgs.alpinelinux.org/package/v3.15/community/x86_64/plan9port
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```
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By default, plan9port gets installed to `/usr/lib/plan9/bin`. But we want `rc` to be easily available:
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```
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cp /usr/lib/plan9/bin/rc /bin/rc
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```
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### Configure werc
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There are several important configurations:
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- Point to your plan9 binaries
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- Whether to have a blog or not
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- Whether to use http or https
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- Whether to use [discount markdown](https://www.pell.portland.or.us/~orc/Code/discount/) or not, in which case you will have to install it
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Of these, the more important is the first one. To let werc know where your plan9 binaries are installed
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```
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cd /home/www/werc/werc-1.5.0/etc/
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cp initrc initrc.local
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vim initrc.local
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## Change one of the first lines to:
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## plan9port=/usr/lib/plan9
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```
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## Configure nginx to work with werc
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[Here](https://github.com/NunoSempere/werc-1.5.0-tweaks/tree/master/etc/contrib/nginx) is an example working configuration, i.e., the contents of my `/etc/nginx`
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Here, I would recommend:
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1. Get nginx up and running with a simple website using somethng like [this](https://github.com/NunoSempere/werc-1.5.0-tweaks/blob/master/etc/contrib/nginx/sites-available/nunosempere.com-simple)
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2. Set it up to use werc with fastcgi
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3. Add a DNS record pointing from your domain to your server
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4. Add SSL/TSL certificates using certbot
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5. Switch werc to https
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Digital Ocean has a few good tutorials on how to get nginx up and running:
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- [How To Install Nginx on Ubuntu 20.04](https://www.digitalocean.com/community/tutorials/how-to-install-nginx-on-ubuntu-20-04)
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- [How To Secure Nginx with Let's Encrypt on Ubuntu 20.04](https://www.digitalocean.com/community/tutorials/how-to-secure-nginx-with-let-s-encrypt-on-ubuntu-20-04)
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Steps are very similar on Alpine. Though, e.g., Alpine doesn't have the `ufw` firewall, and so on.
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Before you install SSL, you will need a DNS record, and in particular, an A record, pointing from your domain to your server. It might take a while for the DNS record to be updated; around 24 to 48 hours.
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The commands for installing certificates are pretty trivial:
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```
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apk add --update python3 py3-pip
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apk add certbot
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pip install certbot-nginx
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rc-service nginx stop
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sudo certbot --nginx -d your-site.org
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```
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```
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sudo apk add spawn-fcgi
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sudo apk add fcgiwrap
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```
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### Installing fcgi
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```
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sudo apk add spawn-fcgi
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sudo apk add fcgiwrap
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```
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You can then spawn this with
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```
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/usr/bin/spawn-fcgi -a 127.0.0.1 -p 9000 -f /usr/bin/fcgiwrap
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```
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Alternatively, and more conveniently, you can set this up so that fcgi is spawned when the system starts. To do so, copy the following:
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```
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#!/sbin/openrc-run
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## move to /etc/init.d/spawn-fcgi2
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## Then sudo rc-update add spawn-fcgi2
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## test with sudo rc-service spawn-fcgi2 start
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## and sudo rc-service spawn-fcgi2 stop
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PID_file="/var/tmp/spawn"
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depend() {
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need net
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}
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start() {
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/usr/bin/spawn-fcgi -a 127.0.0.1 -p 9000 -f /usr/bin/fcgiwrap -P "$PID_file"
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}
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stop() {
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kill -15 "$(cat "$PID_file")"
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rm "$PID_file"
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}
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case $1 in
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start|stop) "$1" ;;
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esac
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```
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into `spawn-fcgi2`, and then:
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```
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mv spawn-fcgi2 /etc/init.d/spawn-fcgi2
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cd /etc/init.d
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sudo chmod 755 spawn-fcgi2
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sudo rc-update add spawn-fcgi2
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```
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|
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## Install discount markdown
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|
||||||
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## Debug problems
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||||||
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|
@ -1,14 +1,15 @@
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||||||
<div>
|
<div class="hidden-mobile">
|
||||||
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere">ea forum</a> |
|
<div>
|
||||||
<a href="https://forecasting.substack.com/">forecasting newsletter</a> |
|
<a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere">ea forum</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="https://github.com/">github</a> |
|
<a href="https://forecasting.substack.com/">forecasting newsletter</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="https://metaforecast.org/">metaforecast</a> |
|
<a href="https://github.com/">github</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="https://quantifieduncertainty.org/">quantified uncertainty</a> |
|
<a href="https://metaforecast.org/">metaforecast</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="https://twitter.com/NunoSempere">twitter</a>
|
<a href="https://quantifieduncertainty.org/">quantified uncertainty</a> |
|
||||||
|
<a href="https://twitter.com/NunoSempere">twitter</a>
|
||||||
</div>
|
</div>
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||||||
|
|
||||||
<div>
|
<div>
|
||||||
<a href="/about">about</a> |
|
<a href="/about">about</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="/sitemap">site map</a>
|
<a href="/sitemap">site map</a>
|
||||||
</div>
|
</div>
|
||||||
|
</div>
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
|
|
@ -1,4 +1,5 @@
|
||||||
<div>
|
<div class="hidden-mobile">
|
||||||
|
<div>
|
||||||
<a href="http://gsoc.cat-v.org">gsoc</a> |
|
<a href="http://gsoc.cat-v.org">gsoc</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="http://doc.cat-v.org">doc archive</a> |
|
<a href="http://doc.cat-v.org">doc archive</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="http://repo.cat-v.org">software repo</a> |
|
<a href="http://repo.cat-v.org">software repo</a> |
|
||||||
|
|
@ -6,10 +7,9 @@
|
||||||
<a href="http://harmful.cat-v.org">harmful</a> |
|
<a href="http://harmful.cat-v.org">harmful</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="http://9p.cat-v.org/">9P</a> |
|
<a href="http://9p.cat-v.org/">9P</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="http://cat-v.org">cat-v.org</a>
|
<a href="http://cat-v.org">cat-v.org</a>
|
||||||
</div>
|
</div>
|
||||||
|
<div>
|
||||||
<div>
|
|
||||||
<a href="http://cat-v.org/update_log">site updates</a> |
|
<a href="http://cat-v.org/update_log">site updates</a> |
|
||||||
<a href="/sitemap">site map</a>
|
<a href="/sitemap">site map</a>
|
||||||
</div>
|
</div>
|
||||||
|
</div>
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
1362
blog/2022/04/16/optimal-scoring/imgs/comparison.png
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1362
blog/2022/04/16/optimal-scoring/imgs/comparison.png
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24
blog/2022/04/16/optimal-scoring/index.md
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24
blog/2022/04/16/optimal-scoring/index.md
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|
|
@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
|
||||||
|
Better scoring rules
|
||||||
|
=====================
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Linkpost for [github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring](https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This git repository outlines three scoring rules that I believe might serve current forecasting platforms better than current alternatives. The motivation behind it is my frustration with scoring rules as used in current forecasting platforms, like Metaculus, Good Judgment Open, Manifold Markets, INFER, and others. In [Sempere and Lawsen](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11248), we outlined and categorized how current scoring rules go wrong, and I think that the three new scoring rules I propose avoid the pitfalls outlined in that paper. In particular, these new incentive rules incentivize collaboration.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I was also frustrated with the "reciprocal scoring" method recently proposed in [Karger et al.](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3954498). It's a method that can be used to resolve questions which may otherwise seem unresolvable or resolve a long time from now. But it resembles a [Keynesian Beauty Contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest), which means that the forecasters are not incentivized to directly predict reality, but instead to predict the opinion which will be mainstream among forecasters. So I also propose two replacement scoring rules for reciprocal scoring.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I am choosing to publish these scoring rules in Github and in the [arxiv](https://www.arxiv.com/) [^arxiv] because journals tend to be extractive[^elsevier] and time consuming, and because I am in a position to not care about them. In any case, the three scoring rules are:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- [_Beat the house_](https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring/blob/master/1-beat-the-house/beat-the-house.pdf) outlines three small tweaks to the logarithmic scoring rule that makes it collaborative and suitable for distributing a fixed amount of reward.
|
||||||
|
- [_Amplified Oracle_](https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring/blob/master/2-amplified-oracle/amplified-oracle.pdf) provides what I believe to be a more elegant alternative to [Karger et al.'s reciprocal scoring](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3954498)
|
||||||
|
- [_Amplify a Bayesian_](https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring/blob/master/3-amplify-bayesian/amplify-bayesian.pdf) provides a more speculative alternative to Karger et al.'s reciprocal scoring rule.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Although _Amplified Oracle_ builds upon _Beat the house_ to ensure collaborativeness, I would recommend reading _Amplified Oracle_ first, and then coming back to _Beat the house_ if needed.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Issues (complaints or ideas) or pull requests (tweaks and improvements to our work) are both welcome. I would also like to thank Eli Lifland, Gavin Leech and Misha Yagudin for comments and suggestions, as well as Ezra Karger, SimonM, Jaime Sevilla and others for fruitful discussion.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[^arxiv]: I am planning to update these papers to the arxiv around the 30th of April, so discussion and suggestions before then might be particularly valuable
|
||||||
|
[^elsevier]: For instance, the open access option in the International Journal of Forecasting has an embargo period of [24 months (2 years)](https://www.elsevier.com/journals/international-journal-of-forecasting/0169-2070/open-access-options) or price of [$1,200](https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals/journal-pricing/apc-pricelist). I also think that the article publishing model is a bad fit, since the proposed scoring rules are fairly experimental.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
BIN
blog/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle/imgs/simple-rick.jpg
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|
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blog/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle/imgs/simple-squiggle.png
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|
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115
blog/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle/index.md
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115
blog/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle/index.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
|
||||||
|
Simple Squiggle
|
||||||
|
===============
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Linkpost for [github.com/quantified-uncertainty/simple-squiggle](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/simple-squiggle)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
"Simple Squiggle" is a simple parser that manipulates multiplications and divisions between numbers and lognormal distributions. It uses an extremely restricted subset of [Squiggle](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle)'s syntax, and unlike it, the underlying code is not easily extensible.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It may be useful for testing correctness of limited features of the full Squiggle, or for sanity-checking the validity of some Squiggle models.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Built with
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- [Node.js](https://nodejs.org/en/)
|
||||||
|
- [Math.js](https://mathjs.org/)
|
||||||
|
- [Best Readme template](https://github.com/othneildrew/Best-README-Template/blob/master/README.md)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Getting started
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Prerequisites
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- npm
|
||||||
|
- nodejs
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Installation
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
git clone https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/simple-squiggle.git
|
||||||
|
cd simple-squiggle
|
||||||
|
## npm install
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The last line is not necessary, since I'm saving node_packages in the repository.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Usage
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Consider a squiggle model which only uses lognormals:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
initialPrisonPopulation = 1.8M to 2.5M # Data for 2022 prison population has not yet been published, though this estimate is perhaps too wide.
|
||||||
|
reductionInPrisonPopulation = 0.25 to 0.75
|
||||||
|
badnessOfPrisonInQALYs = 0.2 to 5 # 80% as good as being alive to 5 times worse than living is good
|
||||||
|
accelerationInYears = 5 to 50
|
||||||
|
probabilityOfSuccess = 0.01 to 0.1 # 1% to 10%.
|
||||||
|
estimateQALYs = leftTruncate(
|
||||||
|
initialPrisonPopulation *
|
||||||
|
reductionInPrisonPopulation *
|
||||||
|
badnessOfPrisonInQALYs *
|
||||||
|
accelerationInYears *
|
||||||
|
probabilityOfSuccess
|
||||||
|
, 0)
|
||||||
|
cost = 2B to 20B
|
||||||
|
costEffectivenessPerQALY = leftTruncate(cost / estimateQALYs, 0)
|
||||||
|
costEffectivenessPerQALY
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
It can be simplified to the following simple squiggle model:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
( 2000000000 to 20000000000 ) / ( (1800000 to 2500000) * (0.25 to 0.75) * (0.2 to 5) * (5 to 50) * (0.01 to 0.1) )
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I provide both an exportable library and a command line interface (cli). The cli can be run with `npm run cli`, which produces a prompt:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
> npm run cli
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Model:
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
After filling in the prompt
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
> npm run cli
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Model: ( 2000000000 to 20000000000 ) / ( (1800000 to 2500000) * (0.25 to 0.75) * (0.2 to 5) * (5 to 50) * (0.01 to 0.1) )
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
the output looks as follows:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
> npm run cli
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Model: ( 2000000000 to 20000000000 ) / ( (1800000 to 2500000) * (0.25 to 0.75) * (0.2 to 5) * (5 to 50) * (0.01 to 0.1) )
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
= (lognormal(22.57, 0.70)) / ((lognormal(14.57, 0.10)) * (lognormal(-0.84, 0.33)) * (lognormal(0.00, 0.98)) * (lognormal(2.76, 0.70)) * (lognormal(-3.45, 0.70)))
|
||||||
|
-> lognormal(22.57, 0.70) / (lognormal(14.57, 0.10) * lognormal(-0.84, 0.33) * lognormal(0.00, 0.98) * lognormal(2.76, 0.70) * lognormal(-3.45, 0.70))
|
||||||
|
-> lognormal(22.57, 0.70) / (lognormal(13.73, 0.35) * lognormal(0.00, 0.98) * lognormal(2.76, 0.70) * lognormal(-3.45, 0.70))
|
||||||
|
-> lognormal(22.57, 0.70) / (lognormal(13.73, 1.04) * lognormal(2.76, 0.70) * lognormal(-3.45, 0.70))
|
||||||
|
-> lognormal(22.57, 0.70) / (lognormal(16.49, 1.25) * lognormal(-3.45, 0.70))
|
||||||
|
-> lognormal(22.57, 0.70) / (lognormal(13.04, 1.43))
|
||||||
|
-> lognormal(22.57, 0.70) / lognormal(13.04, 1.43)
|
||||||
|
-> lognormal(9.53, 1.60)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
=> lognormal(9.530291704996749, 1.596443005980748)
|
||||||
|
----------------------------------------------------
|
||||||
|
```
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
For ease of representation, the intermediary outputs are printed only to two decimal points. But this is just a display decision; the innards of the program work with the full set of decimals.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You can also run tests with `npm run test`
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Roadmap
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I consider this repository to be feature complete. As such, I may tinker with the code which wraps around the core logic, but I don't really intend to add further functionality.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- [ ] Make wrapper code less hacky
|
||||||
|
- [ ] Display final lognormal as a 90% confidence interval as well
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## License
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Distributed under the MIT License
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
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|
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|
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|
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153
blog/2022/05/01/ea-forum-lowdown-april-2022/index.md
Normal file
153
blog/2022/05/01/ea-forum-lowdown-april-2022/index.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,153 @@
|
||||||
|
EA Forum Lowdown: April 2022
|
||||||
|
==============
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Imagine a [tabloid](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dAbs7w4J4iNm89DjP/why-fun-writing-can-save-lives-the-case-for-it-being-high) to the [EA Forum digest](https://us8.campaign-archive.com/?u=52b028e7f799cca137ef74763&id=9fe033c22e)'s weather report. This publication gives an opinionated curation of EA forum posts published during April 2022, according to my whim. I probably have a bias towards forecasting, longtermism, evaluations, wit, and takedowns.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You can sign up for this newsletter on [substack](https://lowdown.substack.com/).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Index
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* How did we get here?
|
||||||
|
* Monthly highlights
|
||||||
|
* Finest newcomers
|
||||||
|
* Keen criticism
|
||||||
|
* Underupvoted underdogs
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Back and forth discussions
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
On occasion, a few people discuss a topic at some length in the EA forum, going back and forth and considering different perspectives across a few posts. There is a beauty to it.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### On how much of one’s life to give to EA
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Altruism as a central purpose](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LrpdPrfdEezK7xTYC/altruism-as-a-central-purpose) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501001052/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LrpdPrfdEezK7xTYC/altruism-as-a-central-purpose)) struck a chord with me:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> _After some thought I have decided that the descriptor that best fits the role altruism plays in my life, is that of a central purpose. A purpose can be a philosophy and a way of living. A central purpose transcends a passion; even considering how intense and transformative a passion can be. It carries a far deeper significance in one’s life. When I describe EA as my purpose, it suggests that it is something that my life is built around; a fundamental and constitutive value._
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> _Of course, effective altruism fits into people’s lives in different ways and to different extents. For many EAs, an existing descriptor adequately captures their perspective. But there are many subgroups in EA for whom I think it has been helpful to have a more focused discussion on the role EA plays for them. I would imagine that a space within EA for purpose-driven EAs could be particularly useful for this subset, while of little interest to the broader community._
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In contrast, Eric Neyman's [My bargain with the EA machine](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AJtbfPQL7gLqaNAcC/my-bargain-with-the-ea-machine) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003720/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AJtbfPQL7gLqaNAcC/my-bargain-with-the-ea-machine)) explains how someone who isn't quite as fanatically altruistic established his boundaries in his relationship with the EA machinery:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> _I’m only willing to accept a bargain that would allow me to attain a higher point than what I would attain by default – but besides that, anything is on the table._
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> 
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> ...
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> _I really enjoy socializing and working with other EAs, more so than with any other community I’ve found. The career outcomes that are all the way up (and pretty far to the right) are ones where I do cool work at a longtermist office space, hanging out with the awesome people there during lunch and after work._
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Note that there is a tension between creating inclusive spaces that would include people like Eric and creating spaces restricted to committed altruists. As a sign of respect, I left a comment on Eric’s post [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AJtbfPQL7gLqaNAcC/my-bargain-with-the-ea-machine?commentId=SGA7tFhHHgvv6FAFv#comments=).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Jeff Kaufman [reflects on the increasing demandingness in EA](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zDgj5Mew7cRhW3BNs/increasing-demandingness-in-ea) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501002542/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zDgj5Mew7cRhW3BNs/increasing-demandingness-in-ea)). In response, a Giving What We Can (GWWC) pledger explains that he just [doesn't care](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YeudcYiArwWrg77Ng/notes-from-a-pledger) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501002722/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/YeudcYiArwWrg77Ng/notes-from-a-pledger)) all that much what the EA community thinks about him. He writes (lightly edited for clarity): "_my relative status as an EA is just not very important to me... no amount of focus on direct work by people across the world is likely to make me feel inadequate or rethink this... we \[GWWC pledgers\] are perfectly happy to be by far the most effectively altruistic person we know of within dozens of miles_".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### On decadence and caution
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I found the contrast between [EA Houses: Live or Stay with EAs Around The World](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4zHWQNzCusaTfD7jz/ea-houses-live-or-stay-with-eas-around-the-world) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003524/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4zHWQNzCusaTfD7jz/ea-houses-live-or-stay-with-eas-around-the-world)) and posts such as [Free-spending EA might be a big problem for optics and epistemics](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HWaH8tNdsgEwNZu8B/free-spending-ea-might-be-a-big-problem-for-optics-and) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003527/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HWaH8tNdsgEwNZu8B/free-spending-ea-might-be-a-big-problem-for-optics-and)) and [The Vultures Are Circling](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/W8ii8DyTa5jn8By7H/the-vultures-are-circling) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003714/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/W8ii8DyTa5jn8By7H/the-vultures-are-circling)) striking and amusing. Although somewhat forceful, the posts presenting considerations to the contrary probably didn’t move the spending plans already in motion.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Personal monthly highlights
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I appreciated the ruthlessness of [Project: bioengineering an all-female breed of chicken to end chick culling](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qbZmWdeRuEiAd2sfg/project-bioengineering-an-all-female-breed-of-chicken-to-end) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501002222/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qbZmWdeRuEiAd2sfg/project-bioengineering-an-all-female-breed-of-chicken-to-end))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Luke Muehlhauser writes [Features that make a report especially helpful to me](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SdQYLKzpDFQsdW9bn/features-that-make-a-report-especially-helpful-to-me) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003859/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/SdQYLKzpDFQsdW9bn/features-that-make-a-report-especially-helpful-to-me)). I thought this was a valuable reference piece that aspiring researchers should read. I also liked [Tips for conducting worldview investigations](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vcjLwqLDqNEmvewHY/tips-for-conducting-worldview-investigations) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004031/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vcjLwqLDqNEmvewHY/tips-for-conducting-worldview-investigations)), where Luke [mentions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vcjLwqLDqNEmvewHY/tips-for-conducting-worldview-investigations#fn-ah4mYv6Nuxby9kYR7-2) that blog posts and short reports of less than 100 pages are not that useful to him.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Leo writes an update to the [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DBhuERvKRgGpLiK6T/big-list-of-cause-candidates-january-2021-march-2022-update) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501143449/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DBhuERvKRgGpLiK6T/big-list-of-cause-candidates-january-2021-march-2022-update)), which gathers many of the novel cause area ideas people have been suggesting on the EA forum since early 2021.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The Simon Institute writes an [Update on the Simon Institute: Year One](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aqwyGuJkZbnpjt3TR/update-on-the-simon-institute-year-one) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003855/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aqwyGuJkZbnpjt3TR/update-on-the-simon-institute-year-one)). Despite their, at times, verbose writing, I found the post to be excellent. Ditto for an [update on CSER](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WJZAc6fTYNbb5DeAW/a-primer-and-some-reflections-on-recent-cser-work-eab-talk#comments).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Of the [April fools](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/april-fools-day-1) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003047/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/april-fools-day-1)) posts, [Half Price Impact Certificates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZgtGHS4KbJe6uRyeJ/half-price-impact-certificates) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004204/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZgtGHS4KbJe6uRyeJ/half-price-impact-certificates)) tickled my brain. The post offers £20 worth of impact for £10, and notes that "the certificates are a form of stable currency, as they are pegged to the British pound, and so the impact isn't subject to volatility."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Case for emergency response teams](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sgcxDwyD2KL6BHH2C/case-for-emergency-response-teams) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004205/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sgcxDwyD2KL6BHH2C/case-for-emergency-response-teams)) suggests creating a standing reserve which could quickly deploy in times of crisis. It is part of a [longer series](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/dr4yccYeH6Zs7J82s) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004205/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/dr4yccYeH6Zs7J82s)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Nicole Noemi gathers some [forecasts about AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RSqKQXwmrK6mFGB32/what-are-the-numbers-in-mind-for-the-super-short-agi?commentId=G5dZNHMNj3BCr3FCf) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003221/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RSqKQXwmrK6mFGB32/what-are-the-numbers-in-mind-for-the-super-short-agi?commentId=G5dZNHMNj3BCr3FCf)) from Metaculus, Deepmind co-founders, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Paul Christiano, and Aleja Cotra's report on AI timelines. I found it helpful to see all these in the same place.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Aaron Gertler [rates and reviews rationalist fiction](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BySWsfop7WLTovJvJ/aaron-gertler-s-shortform?commentId=EcJwYxG7GMD2AXFtp) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004341/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/BySWsfop7WLTovJvJ/aaron-gertler-s-shortform?commentId=EcJwYxG7GMD2AXFtp)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The [Forecasting Wiki](https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Main_Page) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004347/https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Main_Page)) [launches](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4pnHxjcc2rEAJeSX7/announcing-the-forecasting-wiki-7) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004345/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4pnHxjcc2rEAJeSX7/announcing-the-forecasting-wiki-7))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Finest newcomers
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Tristan Cook develops and presents a highly [detailed model of the likelihood of us seeing "grabby aliens"](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7bc54mWtc7BrpZY9e/replicating-and-extending-the-grabby-aliens-model) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004405/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7bc54mWtc7BrpZY9e/replicating-and-extending-the-grabby-aliens-model)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
mpt7 writes [Market Design Meets Effective Altruism](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rRfK5y4oMbdaGQDgx/market-design-meets-effective-altruism) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004518/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rRfK5y4oMbdaGQDgx/market-design-meets-effective-altruism)) analyzing the charity ecosystem from a market perspective. The standpoint in the post could be a fruitful perspective from which to generate new mechanisms that EA might want to use.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Evan Price writes [Organizations prioritising neat signals of EA alignment might systematically miss good candidates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4rBoime7bP9DNANyf/organizations-prioritising-neat-signals-of-ea-alignment) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004520/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4rBoime7bP9DNANyf/organizations-prioritising-neat-signals-of-ea-alignment)).
|
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|
|
||||||
|
> _In my career I have worked for 18 years as a structural engineer and project manager in senior roles at small, niche companies. I've been fully remote for several years, have worked with teams on five continents, and have always worked hard to excel as a people manager and to produce rigorous technical work and robust, efficient systems under challenging conditions._
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> _Through EA volunteering work and other recent non-EA work I have been assessed as experienced, engaged, and self-directed in my operations work. I received a single response from the six applications and was removed from consideration there before an interview._
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> _... it does seem like there could be an incongruity here - I do have several years of relevant experience, I am strongly EA aligned, and I didn't receive responses from five applications._
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Leftism virtue cafe](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bsTXHJFu3Srurbg7K/leftism-virtue-cafe-s-shortform) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004542/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bsTXHJFu3Srurbg7K/leftism-virtue-cafe-s-shortform))'s shortform is very much worth reading. I particularly enjoyed:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* [Inner Rings and EA](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bsTXHJFu3Srurbg7K/leftism-virtue-cafe-s-shortform?commentId=Q8armqnvxhAmFcrAh) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004654/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bsTXHJFu3Srurbg7K/leftism-virtue-cafe-s-shortform?commentId=Q8armqnvxhAmFcrAh))
|
||||||
|
* [EA and belonging](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bsTXHJFu3Srurbg7K/?commentId=mdhfHBe3k5wvqXfo2) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004656/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bsTXHJFu3Srurbg7K/?commentId=mdhfHBe3k5wvqXfo2))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Riffing on [NegativeNuno](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/negativenuno), totally unknown persons created a [Pessimistic Pete](https://twitter.com/PessimistiPete) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005131/https://twitter.com/PessimistiPete)) Twitter account and a [Positive Petra](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/positivepetra) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501011948/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/positivepetra)) EA forum alias.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Ryan Kidd asks: [How will the world respond to "AI x-risk warning shots" according to reference class forecasting?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CyiuhttLjFuCygYoy/how-will-the-world-respond-to-ai-x-risk-warning-shots) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004830/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/CyiuhttLjFuCygYoy/how-will-the-world-respond-to-ai-x-risk-warning-shots)). I thought it was interesting:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> _If such a warning shot occurs, is it appropriate to infer the responses of governments from their responses to other potential x-risk warning shots, such as COVID-19 for weaponized pandemics and Hiroshima for nuclear winter?_
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> _To the extent that x-risks from pandemics has lessened since COVID-19 (if at all), what does this suggest about the risk mitigation funding we expect following AI x-risk warning shots?_
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> _Do x-risk warning shots like Hiroshima trigger strategic deterrence programs and empower small actors with disproportionate destructive capabilities by default?_
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[rileyharris](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WeinSXpKgW5kyJ3WK/thesis-summary-and-open-questions-normative-uncertainty-and) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005007/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WeinSXpKgW5kyJ3WK/thesis-summary-and-open-questions-normative-uncertainty-and)) posts their thesis about normative uncertainty. I'm on the fanatical utilitarianism side, so I just read the summary in the introduction, but I thought it was worth a shoutout.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Keen criticism
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Rohin Shah](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pABugumfJNX46A56f/rohinmshah-s-shortform?commentId=JW5zrjYW9twFi3oBo) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005010/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pABugumfJNX46A56f/rohinmshah-s-shortform?commentId=JW5zrjYW9twFi3oBo)) rants about bad epistemics on the EA forum:
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> _Reasonably often (maybe once or twice a month?) I see fairly highly upvoted posts that I think are basically wrong in something like "how they are reasoning", which I'll call epistemics. In particular, I think these are cases where it is pretty clear that the argument is wrong, and that this determination can be made using only knowledge that the author probably had (so it is more about reasoning correctly given a base of knowledge)..._
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
niplav argues for [rewarding Long Content](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aNu3HCGjLCn45EMNp/reward-long-content) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005144/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aNu3HCGjLCn45EMNp/reward-long-content)), and criticizing the recent $500k blog prize. Uncharacteristically enough, it received a [thoughtful answer](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aNu3HCGjLCn45EMNp/unendorsed-reward-long-content?commentId=RA2eJb7nX6TzLJwZD) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005147/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aNu3HCGjLCn45EMNp/unendorsed-reward-long-content?commentId=RA2eJb7nX6TzLJwZD)) by the target of his criticism. Niplav then retracted his post.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> _DID THEY NOT SEE THE IRONY OF PUTTING OUT A PRIZE LOOKING FOR BLOGS FOCUSED ON LONGERMISM WITH POSTS THAT STAND THE TEST OF TIME, BUT EXCLUDE ANY BLOG OLDER THAN 12 MONTHS? AM I GOING CRAZY?_
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> 
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Forethought Foundation researcher [pummels popular](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8crArxHztW2Ztb3ww/a-review-of-our-final-warning-six-degrees-of-climate) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005147/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8crArxHztW2Ztb3ww/a-review-of-our-final-warning-six-degrees-of-climate)) Climate Change alarmist.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I appreciated [aogara](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/aogara) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005320/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/aogara))'s criticisms of [FTX spending on publicity](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7ZZpWPq5iqkLMmt25/aogara-s-shortform?commentId=AihTTuJPw4NbvNrKx) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005325/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7ZZpWPq5iqkLMmt25/aogara-s-shortform?commentId=AihTTuJPw4NbvNrKx)) and the [BioAnchors Timelines](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7ZZpWPq5iqkLMmt25/aogara-s-shortform?commentId=mv6KLpqnBJt58C2Dp) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005325/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7ZZpWPq5iqkLMmt25/aogara-s-shortform?commentId=mv6KLpqnBJt58C2Dp))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[billzito](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QYDva5y67ka9XeGZ5/billzito-s-shortform?commentId=2DCtq4DJ6LwBHmrCr) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005455/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/QYDva5y67ka9XeGZ5/billzito-s-shortform?commentId=2DCtq4DJ6LwBHmrCr)) talks about whether having "despair days" set aside for criticism would be a good idea and shares some struggles with knowing whether criticisms are welcome.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Underupvoted underdogs
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Go Republican, Young EA!](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/myympkZ6SuT59vuEQ/go-republican-young-ea) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003143/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/myympkZ6SuT59vuEQ/go-republican-young-ea), 69 upvotes): "Young effective altruists in the United States interested in using partisan politics to make the world better should almost all be Republicans. They should not be Democrats, they should not be Greens, they should be Republicans."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Josh Morrison [calls for research](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zRkixB4kjefMzEt2q/research-help-needed-for-1day-ifp-operation-warp-speed-2-0) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003331/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zRkixB4kjefMzEt2q/research-help-needed-for-1day-ifp-operation-warp-speed-2-0), 40 upvotes) for an ambitious biosecurity project: getting the US to issue an Advanced Market Commitment for future covid vaccines.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> _Thus both the campaign’s object-level goal (accelerating coronavirus vaccines) and meta-goal (expanding the long-term use of advanced market commitments) have major EA benefits beyond reducing COVID disease burden._
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In [Avoiding Moral Fads?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XhGXmHATdy7wCexiG/avoiding-moral-fads) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003454/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/XhGXmHATdy7wCexiG/avoiding-moral-fads), 23 upvotes), Davis Kingsley introduces the concept of a moral fad, gives previous examples (recovered memory therapy, eugenics and lobotomy), and asks about what the EA community could do to not fall prey to moral fads.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Using TikTok to indoctrinate the masses to EA](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WgoGzxBiw8HthxSDj/using-tiktok-to-indoctrinate-the-masses-to-ea) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501000959/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/WgoGzxBiw8HthxSDj/using-tiktok-to-indoctrinate-the-masses-to-ea), -5 upvotes). Although the post's title is terrible, the [videos](https://www.tiktok.com/@niktalksfast/video/7084843438713195822) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501001448/https://www.tiktok.com/@niktalksfast/video/7084843438713195822)) referred to struck me as both witty and edgy. The author also has 14k followers and 1M likes on TikTok, which seems no small feat.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Effective Altruism Isn't on TV.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jmnyCrwmiwgqa97LC/effective-altruism-isn-t-on-tv) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003500/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jmnyCrwmiwgqa97LC/effective-altruism-isn-t-on-tv), 11 upvotes): "_Internet Archive lets you search the TV captions of major news programs back to 2009... Here’s how often effective altruism and charity evaluators were mentioned... RT (Russia Today) provided the most mentions of effective altruism.._"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Jackson Wagner asks about [What Twitter fixes should we advocate, now that Elon is on the board?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JPfrT4AJNSadLQCPr/what-twitter-fixes-should-we-advocate-now-that-elon-is-on) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003504/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JPfrT4AJNSadLQCPr/what-twitter-fixes-should-we-advocate-now-that-elon-is-on)). In the comments, Larks suggests ["federated censorship"](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JPfrT4AJNSadLQCPr/what-twitter-fixes-should-we-advocate-now-that-elon-is-on?commentId=pWbqzzAiWRviAajgG) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501001511/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JPfrT4AJNSadLQCPr/what-twitter-fixes-should-we-advocate-now-that-elon-is-on?commentId=pWbqzzAiWRviAajgG)). Wagner suggests play-money [prediction markets](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JPfrT4AJNSadLQCPr/what-twitter-fixes-should-we-advocate-now-that-elon-is-on?commentId=YonyrBokWKCxGqJib) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003513/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/JPfrT4AJNSadLQCPr/what-twitter-fixes-should-we-advocate-now-that-elon-is-on?commentId=YonyrBokWKCxGqJib)), perhaps by acquiring Manifold Markets.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Virtue signalling is sometimes the best or the only metric we have](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gdnQLGqbqC7dnbiFF/virtue-signaling-is-sometimes-the-best-or-the-only-metric-we) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003511/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gdnQLGqbqC7dnbiFF/virtue-signaling-is-sometimes-the-best-or-the-only-metric-we), 34 upvotes). I thought this was a good point.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[A Preliminary Model of Mission-Correlated Investing](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6wwjd8kZWY5ew9Zvy/a-preliminary-model-of-mission-correlated-investing) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501003514/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6wwjd8kZWY5ew9Zvy/a-preliminary-model-of-mission-correlated-investing), 27 upvotes):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> _According to my preliminary model, the altruistic investing portfolio should ultimately allocate 5–20% on a risk-adjusted basis to mission-correlated investing. But for the current EA portfolio, it's better on the margin to increase its risk-adjusted return than to introduce mission-correlated investments._
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I appreciated [this summary](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pvD57QQSCaFWRRK95/paper-summary-the-case-for-strong-longtermism-hilary-greaves) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501001723/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pvD57QQSCaFWRRK95/paper-summary-the-case-for-strong-longtermism-hilary-greaves)) of _The case for strong longtermism_.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I also appreciated [Replaceability versus 'Contextualized Worthiness'](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Gbgu8HEPPcXALHbES/replaceability-v-contextualized-worthiness) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501001900/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Gbgu8HEPPcXALHbES/replaceability-v-contextualized-worthiness)). It seems like a valuable concept for those who struggle with the thought of being replaceable. Sadly, the post doesn't have an upvote button.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Adam Shimi opens [An Incubator for Conceptual Alignment Research Bets](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/J6npBG4dnQzNgAjWS/refine-an-incubator-for-conceptual-alignment-research-bets) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501002040/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/J6npBG4dnQzNgAjWS/refine-an-incubator-for-conceptual-alignment-research-bets), 37 upvotes): "I’m not looking for people to work on my own research ideas, but for new exciting research bets I wouldn’t have thought about."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Note to the future: All links are added automatically to the Internet Archive, using this [tool](https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220304021930/https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd)). "(a)" for archived links was inspired by [Milan Griffes](https://www.flightfromperfection.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220304021952/https://www.flightfromperfection.com/)), [Andrew Zuckerman](https://www.andzuck.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220211080149/https://www.andzuck.com/)), and [Alexey Guzey](https://guzey.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220304022034/https://guzey.com/)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> Effective Altruism and petty drama \[emoji of a lama\]
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
— [@Kirsten3531](https://twitter.com/Kirsten3531) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501005915/https://twitter.com/Kirsten3531))
|
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||||||
|
Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
|
||||||
|
==============
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Highlights
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* The US CDC creates a [pandemic forecasting center](https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cdc-creates-a-forecasting-center/)
|
||||||
|
* Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a new tournament on [existential risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Dm5eNgyvEwF9ibvzj/participate-in-the-hybrid-forecasting-persuasion-tournament)
|
||||||
|
* Manifold Markets makes their webpage [open-source](https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Index
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
* Notable news
|
||||||
|
* Platform by platform
|
||||||
|
* Correction on Polymarket incentivizing wash-trading.
|
||||||
|
* Shortform research
|
||||||
|
* Longform research
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
You can sign up for this newsletter on [substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/), or browse past newsletters [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## The state of forecasting: Where next?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
At the high level, various new startups have been exploring different parts of the forecasting and prediction market space. Most recently, Manifold Markets allows anyone to easily instantly create a market, which comes at the cost of these markets having to use play money. And Polymarket or Insight Prediction have set up real-money prediction markets on some topics of real interest.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Our hope is that with time, a new project might stumble upon a winning combination, one that is able to produce large amounts of value by allowing people to pay for more accurate probabilities, even when these are unflattering.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Putting on my Scott Alexander hat, prediction markets or forecasting systems have the potential to be a powerful [asymmetric weapon](https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/24/guided-by-the-beauty-of-our-weapons/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220429054906/https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/03/24/guided-by-the-beauty-of-our-weapons/)): a sword of good that systematically favours the side which seeks the truth. A channel which is able to transmit accurate information even when the [evil forces of Moloch](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220506085535/https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/)) would seek to prevent this.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In Linux circles, there is the meme of "the year of the Linux desktop": a magical year in which people realize that Windows adds little value, and that Linux is based. A year in which people would together [switch to Linux](https://www.linuxmint.com/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031755/https://www.linuxmint.com/)) and sing John Lennon. Instead, Linux, much like prediction markets, remains a powerful yet obscure tool which only a few cognoscenti can wield. So although I may wax poetically about the potential of prediction markets, "the year of the prediction market" has yet to come, much like "the year of the Linux desktop".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
To get there, there needs to be investment in accessibility and popularization. And so I am happy to see things like the [Forecasting Wiki](https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Main_Page) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220501004347/https://forecasting.wiki/wiki/Main_Page)), [simpler apps](https://spose.app/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/*/spose.app)), popular writers introducing prediction markets to their audiences, or platforms experimenting with simplifying some of the complexity of prediction markets, or with combining the ideas behind prediction markets in new ways and exploring the space of prediction market-like things. It might also be wise for prediction markets to take a more [confrontational stance](https://www.metaculus.com/organization/public-figures/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031633/https://www.metaculus.com/organization/public-figures/)), by challenging powerful people who spout bullshit.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Notable news
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The CDC has a [new](https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cdc-creates-a-forecasting-center/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031621/https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cdc-creates-a-forecasting-center/)), $200M [center](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/04/19/new-cdc-team-early-alert-pandemic/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031758/https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/04/19/new-cdc-team-early-alert-pandemic/)) for pandemic forecasting.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> When Walensky tapped outside experts to head the new outfit, the move was widely viewed as an acknowledgment of long-standing and systemic failures regarding surveillance, data collection and preparedness that were put into high relief by the pandemic.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> Scientists will also look at who is infecting whom, how well vaccines protect against infection and severe illness, and how that depends on the vaccine, variants and the time since vaccination, said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist and the center’s science director.
|
||||||
|
>
|
||||||
|
> The center will be based in D.C. and will eventually have about 100 staff members, including some at CDC’s Atlanta headquarters. It will report to Walensky.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
This is, broadly speaking, good. But it also seems like too little, too late. It seems suboptimal to have this center report to the CDC director, given that the CDC's leadership wasn't particularly shining during the pandemic. And the center is playing defence against the last [black swan](https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory?lang=en), whereas I would prefer to see measures which could defend against unknown unknowns, such as [this one](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sgcxDwyD2KL6BHH2C/case-for-emergency-response-teams) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031746/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sgcxDwyD2KL6BHH2C/case-for-emergency-response-teams)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I recently stumbled upon a few prediction markets previously not on my radar: [TradeX](https://www.tradexapp.co/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031808/https://www.tradexapp.co/)) and [Better Opinions](https://betteropinions.in/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031856/https://betteropinions.in/)). In India, gambling games are [categorized](https://www.hindustantimes.com/brand-post/whats-the-legal-status-of-gambling-regulations-in-india-in-2021-101623671189683.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031856/https://www.hindustantimes.com/brand-post/whats-the-legal-status-of-gambling-regulations-in-india-in-2021-101623671189683.html)) either as games of skill or games of chance, with games of skill being much less regulated.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
And these new Indian platforms are making a calculated bet that they will be categorized as games of skill. It is also possible that there was a recent ruling to that effect, though I couldn't find it after some brief Googling. Given India's 1B+ population, this could be a big deal. h/t Vishal Maini.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Tetlock's forecasting team is recruiting for a "Hybrid forecasting-persuasion tournament" on x-risk topics (announcement [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Dm5eNgyvEwF9ibvzj/participate-in-the-hybrid-forecasting-persuasion-tournament) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031654/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Dm5eNgyvEwF9ibvzj/participate-in-the-hybrid-forecasting-persuasion-tournament)), more details [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iqJLXllG6KSYF91ppJy2boWAj5mqWfVD/edit) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031857/https://docs.google.com/document/d/1iqJLXllG6KSYF91ppJy2boWAj5mqWfVD/edit))). I think that the impact pathway of participating in this looks like: better forecasters produce better probabilities in the tournament, which are then cited in reports by the UN and other large organizations, for which having a legible source to cite when justifying why they may work on preventing existential risks.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
That said, I am not a fan of the reward scheme, which resembles a [Keynesian beauty contest](https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest?lang=en), which means that the forecasters are not incentivized to directly predict reality, but instead to predict the opinion which will be mainstream among forecasters. In any case, the deadline for applying is May 13th, and rewards are $2k to $10k for at least 40 hours over three months, so a minimum compensation of $50/hour.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Platform by platform
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Kalshi [matches PredictIt's 538's approval markets](https://twitter.com/mansourtarek%5F/status/1520093852882907136). This seems like a "take more of the pie" action instead of a "make the pie bigger" action, which might be informative about latent variables.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
According to [Manifold Markets' own estimations](https://manifold.markets/Elena/a-market-on-manifold-markets-will-b) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031954/https://manifold.markets/Elena/a-market-on-manifold-markets-will-b)), the platform will likely create some sort of significant social drama in 2022. They are also bestowing their play money with some monetary value by allowing users to [donate their Manifold dollars to a selection of charities](https://manifold.markets/charity) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031949/https://manifold.markets/charity)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Manifold itself is rapidly increasing their team. It seems that they are aiming to make forecasting simple and streamlined, so that many people can use it and benefit from it. This is an uneasy combination with their current userbase, which is made out of power users. As a power move, they made their webpage [open-source](https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031655/https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Basil Halperin writes [Monetary policy in 2050: evidence from Metaculus](https://basilhalperin.com/essays/metaculus-monetary-policy.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510031922/https://basilhalperin.com/essays/metaculus-monetary-policy.html)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Polymarket [asked the UMA DAO](https://discourse.umaproject.org/t/funding-request-for-liquidity-mining-program-extension-from-polymarket/1654/60) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032003/https://discourse.umaproject.org/t/funding-request-for-liquidity-mining-program-extension-from-polymarket/1654/60)) for $2-3M worth of funds to continue subsidizing their rewards programme. The request will be [denied](https://snapshot.org/#/uma.eth/proposal/0xe9a9cdd146e9a14947b4538b275ea9b5f438ab92cf5e13f2bd22063e6d8b6410).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
INFER is hosting a discussion tomorrow under the ominous headline “[Reasserting U.S. Leadership in Microelectronics](https://www.infer-pub.com/fireside-reasserting-us-leadership-in-microelectronics)” ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510154237/https://www.infer-pub.com/fireside-reasserting-us-leadership-in-microelectronics)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Good Judgment Open adds [a few new features](https://mailchi.mp/goodjudgment/gjo6apr22newsletter-1148858?e=72ee153cd5) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032016/https://mailchi.mp/goodjudgment/gjo6apr22newsletter-1148858?e=72ee153cd5)), chiefly, a neat slider for visualizing probabilities.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PredictIt bettor [refuses to pay](https://twitter.com/PeePeePooPooPI3/status/1521968019433525255) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032133/https://twitter.com/PeePeePooPooPI3/status/1521968019433525255)) $15k worth of over-the-counter bets.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
### Correction on Polymarket incentivizing wash trading.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
In the previous issue of this newsletter, I mentioned that Polymarket was incentivizing wash-trading. Later on, on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/NunoSempere/status/1511425326701854720), I mentioned that this meant that their current volume levels "mean nothing".
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Meme from the Polymarket Discord making light of Polymarket's incentive scheme. h/t @Acebaby256. "Poyo" is a semi-notorious prediction market figure from the early [Augur days](https://decrypt.co/6010/is-augur-being-gamed).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Although I do still think that Polymarket is incentivizing wash-trading, the claim that Polymarket's volume numbers "mean nothing" was an exaggeration: Polymarket would in all likelihood still see significant volume in the absence of their trading incentives. But it does mean that comparing Polymarket's volume to that of, for instance, Kalshi, is now nontrivial.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Shortform
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Robin Hanson considers the [pressures shaping the accuracy of authorities](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/04/the-accuracy-of-authorities.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032051/https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/04/the-accuracy-of-authorities.html)):
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> The best estimates of a maximally accurate source would be very frequently updated and follow a random walk, which implies a large amount of backtracking. And authoritative sources like WHO are often said to be our most accurate sources. Even so, such sources do not tend to act this way. They instead update their estimates rarely, and are especially reluctant to issue estimates that seem to backtrack. Why?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Hanson also comes back to [Intellectual Prestige Futures](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/04/intellectual-prestige-futures.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032050/https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/04/intellectual-prestige-futures.html)). The idea is to predict what people really want according to Hanson: prestige, instead of "impact" or some such.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Jan Kirchner](https://universalprior.substack.com/p/elementary-infra-bayesianism?s=r) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032103/https://universalprior.substack.com/p/elementary-infra-bayesianism?s=r)) writes a popularization of ["Infrabayesianism"](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/CmrW8fCmSLK7E25sa) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032105/https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/CmrW8fCmSLK7E25sa)), a theory of how to make pseudo-Bayesian updates in the presence of intelligent adversaries. I appreciated the effort, but I thought this could have been much better. If anyone writes a better introduction I'll give them a forecasting microgrant proportionate to my estimate of its quality.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Andrew Gelman](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/04/06/what-should-he-read-to-pivot-into-research-with-a-bayesian-focus/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032116/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/04/06/what-should-he-read-to-pivot-into-research-with-a-bayesian-focus/)) answers to someone seeking to do a PhD in Bayesian clinical trials after a lifetime of living in a state of frequentist sin, and reports on a [cool Bayesian framework for interpreting fings from impact evaluations](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/04/27/hey-check-this-out-its-really-cool-a-bayesian-framework-for-interpreting-findings-from-impact-evaluations/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032145/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/04/27/hey-check-this-out-its-really-cool-a-bayesian-framework-for-interpreting-findings-from-impact-evaluations/))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Zvi Mowshowitz](https://thezvi.substack.com/p/ukraine-post-8-risk-of-nuclear-war?s=w) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032127/https://thezvi.substack.com/p/ukraine-post-8-risk-of-nuclear-war?s=w)) writes about the probability he assigns to nuclear war, following up on my forecasting group's forecasts and its criticisms by a nuclear expert. I really appreciated the detail and the good faith.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts scores [its performance in 2021](https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/171/news/forecast-performance-2021) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032138/https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/171/news/forecast-performance-2021)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Justin Shovelain writes about [Goodhart's Law Causal Diagrams](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e4SMfYWb4Tz568yh6/goodhart-s-law-causal-diagrams) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032118/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e4SMfYWb4Tz568yh6/goodhart-s-law-causal-diagrams)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Eric Neyman [grades his 2021 predictions](https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2022/04/17/grading-my-2021-predictions/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032135/https://ericneyman.wordpress.com/2022/04/17/grading-my-2021-predictions/))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
## Longform research
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[The Boltzmann Policy Distribution: Accounting for Systematic Suboptimality in Human Models](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.10759.pdf) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032145/https://arxiv.org/pdf/2204.10759.pdf)) proposes a neat Bayesian way of modelling humans: Assume that humans have a probability _p_ of choosing a policy _P_ proportional to _exp(ExpectedValue(P))_. Then update on human actions. This is obviously very hard to do, because one has to iterate through all policies, but the authors use some neural network witchcraft that I don't understand to make this more feasible. The authors then use this kind of Bayesian model of human irrationality to predict human actions in a simple cooperative game. One could also use it to predict values given actions.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Overall, their method performs worse than current machine techniques. It is also unclear whether it might be generalizable to more complex setups, in which approximating a large policy space would be even more difficult.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
[Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures](https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02466) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032154/https://arxiv.org/abs/2204.02466)). The authors compare Good Judgment Open and Metaculus data, and find that they do "similarly well" to computational models.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
I released [three papers on scoring rules](https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032155/https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring)). The motivation behind them is my frustration with scoring rules as used in current forecasting platforms. I was also frustrated with the "reciprocal scoring" method recently proposed in [Karger et al](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3954498) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032158/https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3954498)) and now used in Tetlock's Hybrid Forecasting-Persuasion tournament (see above). These new scoring rules incentivize collaboration, and although not quite [ready for production](https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring/issues) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20220510032202/https://github.com/SamotsvetyForecasting/optimal-scoring/issues)), I hope they could eventually provide a better incentive scheme for the forecasting ecosystem.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Note to the future: All links are added automatically to the Internet Archive, using this [tool](https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220304021930/https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd)). "(a)" for archived links was inspired by [Milan Griffes](https://www.flightfromperfection.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220304021952/https://www.flightfromperfection.com/)), [Andrew Zuckerman](https://www.andzuck.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220211080149/https://www.andzuck.com/)), and [Alexey Guzey](https://guzey.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220304022034/https://guzey.com/)).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
---
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
> In other words, I'm right. I'm always right, but sometimes I'm more right than other times. And dammit, \[this time\], I'm really really Right(tm).
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
— [Linus Torvalds](https://web.archive.org/web/20151007061636/https://permalink.gmane.org/gmane.comp.version-control.git/217)
|
||||||
|
|
@ -2,6 +2,8 @@
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Most recent pieces
|
### Most recent pieces
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
- 2022/04/17: [Simple Squiggle](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle/)
|
||||||
|
- 2022/04/16: [Better scoring rules]()
|
||||||
- 2022/04/07: [Open Philanthopy’s allocation by cause area](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/07/openphil-allocation/).
|
- 2022/04/07: [Open Philanthopy’s allocation by cause area](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/07/openphil-allocation/).
|
||||||
- 2022/04/06: [A quick note on the value of donations](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/06/note-donations/), written at the request of someone who wanted a reference on why donations are not a total waste of time.
|
- 2022/04/06: [A quick note on the value of donations](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/06/note-donations/), written at the request of someone who wanted a reference on why donations are not a total waste of time.
|
||||||
- 2022/04/05: [Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/05/forecasting-newsletter-march-2022/)
|
- 2022/04/05: [Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/05/forecasting-newsletter-march-2022/)
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
2
index.md
2
index.md
|
|
@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
|
||||||
I'm Nuño Sempere. I do research, write software and predict the future. This webpage is currently a work in progress.
|
I'm Nuño Sempere. I do research, write software and predict the future. This webpage is currently a work in progress.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
<img src="/photo.jpg" alt="image of myself" class="img-frontpage-center">
|
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/rvwA0Wr.jpg" alt="image of myself" class="img-frontpage-center">
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
### Highlights
|
### Highlights
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
|
||||||
BIN
photo.webp
Normal file
BIN
photo.webp
Normal file
Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 7.8 KiB |
BIN
sitemap.gz
BIN
sitemap.gz
Binary file not shown.
48
sitemap.txt
Executable file → Normal file
48
sitemap.txt
Executable file → Normal file
|
|
@ -7,7 +7,6 @@ https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/06/13/ea-mental-health-survey-results-and-anal
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/
|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/04/
|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/04/
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/04/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples/
|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/04/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples/
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/04/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples/images/
|
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/10/
|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/10/
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/10/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals/
|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/10/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals/
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/10/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals/images/
|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/10/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals/images/
|
||||||
|
|
@ -25,17 +24,14 @@ https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/01/15/a-review-of-two-free-online-mit-global-p
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/03/
|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/03/
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/03/01/
|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/03/01/
|
||||||
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/03/01/a-review-of-two-books-on-survey-making/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle/imgs/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/01/
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|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/01/ea-forum-lowdown-april-2022/
|
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https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/01/ea-forum-lowdown-april-2022/images/
|
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|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/10/
|
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|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/10/forecasting-newsletter-april-2022/
|
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|
https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/10/forecasting-newsletter-april-2022/images/
|
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https://nunosempere.com/changelog/
|
https://nunosempere.com/changelog/
|
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https://nunosempere.com/forecasting/
|
https://nunosempere.com/forecasting/
|
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https://nunosempere.com/gossip/
|
https://nunosempere.com/gossip/
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Reference in New Issue
Block a user