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tweak: update and reorder forecasting and research pages.

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forecasting/index.md
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@ -6,6 +6,7 @@ My forecasting group is known as Samotsvety. You can read more about it [here](h
I am perhaps most well-known for my monthly forecasting _newsletter_. It can be found both [on Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/) and [on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7). Besides its mothly issues, I've also written: I am perhaps most well-known for my monthly forecasting _newsletter_. It can be found both [on Substack](https://forecasting.substack.com/) and [on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/HXtZvHqsKwtAYP6Y7). Besides its mothly issues, I've also written:
- [Tracking the money flows in forecasting](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/06/forecasting-money-flows/)
- [Looking back at 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/looking-back-at-2021) - [Looking back at 2021](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/looking-back-at-2021)
- [Forecasting Postmortem: The Fall of Kabul](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/postmortem-the-fall-of-kabul) (paywalled) - [Forecasting Postmortem: The Fall of Kabul](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/postmortem-the-fall-of-kabul) (paywalled)
- [2020: Forecasting in Review](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/2020-forecasting-in-review) - [2020: Forecasting in Review](https://forecasting.substack.com/p/2020-forecasting-in-review)
@ -14,20 +15,21 @@ I am perhaps most well-known for my monthly forecasting _newsletter_. It can be
As part of my research at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/), and previously as an independent researcher, I have a few _in depth pieces_ on forecasting: As part of my research at the [Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute](https://quantifieduncertainty.org/), and previously as an independent researcher, I have a few _in depth pieces_ on forecasting:
- [Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting)
- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
- [Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11248) - [Alignment Problems With Current Forecasting Platforms](https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.11248)
- [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) and [part 2](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting). - [Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCZZvhYbsKCRRDTct/part-1-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting-models) and [part 2](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZTXKHayPexA6uSZqE/part-2-amplifying-generalist-research-via-forecasting).
- [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with) - [Real-Life Examples of Prediction Systems Interfering with the Real World](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSjRezJDxR2omHKE/real-life-examples-of-prediction-systems-interfering-with)
- [Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/dQhjwHA7LhfE8YpYF/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting)
- [Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search) - [Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/tEo5oXeSNcB3sYr8m/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search)
- [Introduction to Fermi estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/) - [Introduction to Fermi estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction/)
- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
I also have a few _minor pieces_: I also have a few _minor pieces_:
- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)
- [Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hugQzRhdGYc6ParJ/metaforecast-update-better-search-capture-functionality-more) - [Metaforecast update: Better search, capture functionality, more platforms.](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hugQzRhdGYc6ParJ/metaforecast-update-better-search-capture-functionality-more)
- [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions) - [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ztmBA8v6KvGChxw92/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions)
- [Military Global Information Dominance Experiments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vDvKWdCCNo9moNcMr/us-military-global-information-dominance-experiments) - [Impact markets as a mechanism for not loosing your edge](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/07/impact-markets-sharpen-your-edge/)
- [An in-progress experiment to test how Laplace’s rule of succession performs in practice.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/30/an-in-progress-experiment-to-test-how-laplace-s-rule-of/)
- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)
- [Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of) - [Predicting the value of small altruistic projects: a proof of concept experiment](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qb56nicbnj9asSemx/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of)
- [Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using) - [Adjusting probabilities for the passage of time, using Squiggle](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j8o6sgRerE3tqNWdj/adjusting-probabilities-for-the-passage-of-time-using)
- [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities) - [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
@ -37,12 +39,18 @@ I also have a few _minor pieces_:
I also mantain [this database](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XB1GHfizNtVYTOAD_uOyBLEyl_EV7hVtDYDXLQwgT7k/edit#gid=0) of prediction markets. I also mantain [this database](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XB1GHfizNtVYTOAD_uOyBLEyl_EV7hVtDYDXLQwgT7k/edit#gid=0) of prediction markets.
### Bayesianism fundamentals
- [Just-in-time Bayesianism](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/04/just-in-time-bayesianism/)
- [A computable version of Solomonoff induction](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/01/computable-solomonoff/)
### Funding ### Funding
I have occasionally advised philanthropic funders—mostly from the effective altruism community—on forecasting related topics and projects. I have occasionally advised philanthropic funders—mostly from the effective altruism community—on forecasting related topics and projects.
I have run a few contests: I have run a few contests:
- [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/23/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top/)
- [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) - [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8Nwy3tX2WnDDSTRoi/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize)
- [We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oqFa8obfyEmvD79Jn/we-are-giving-usd10k-as-forecasting-micro-grants) - [We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oqFa8obfyEmvD79Jn/we-are-giving-usd10k-as-forecasting-micro-grants)
- [$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZrWuy2oAxa6Yh3eAw/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge) - [$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZrWuy2oAxa6Yh3eAw/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge)

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research/index.md
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@ -4,19 +4,28 @@ Most of my research can be found [on the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtrui
Besides forecasting (of probabilities), a major thread in my research is estimation (of values). Pieces related to this topic are: Besides forecasting (of probabilities), a major thread in my research is estimation (of values). Pieces related to this topic are:
- [An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EPhDMkovGquHtFq3h/an-experiment-eliciting-relative-estimates-for-open)
- [Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hrdxf5qdKmCZNWTvs/valuing-research-works-by-eliciting-comparisons-from-ea)
- [A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/h2N9qEbvQ6RHABcae/a-critical-review-of-open-philanthropy-s-bet-on-criminal)
- [Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3hH9NRqzGam65mgPG/five-steps-for-quantifying-speculative-interventions) - [Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3hH9NRqzGam65mgPG/five-steps-for-quantifying-speculative-interventions)
- [External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki) - [A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/h2N9qEbvQ6RHABcae/a-critical-review-of-open-philanthropy-s-bet-on-criminal)
- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation) - [An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EPhDMkovGquHtFq3h/an-experiment-eliciting-relative-estimates-for-open)
- [Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9hQFfmbEiAoodstDA/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions) - [A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/25/worldview-diversification/)
- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)
- [Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8XWi8FBkCuKfgPLMZ/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization)
- [Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xmmqDdGqNZq5RELer/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations) - [Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xmmqDdGqNZq5RELer/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations)
- [2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ps8ecFPBzSrkLC6ip/2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do) - [2018-2019 Long Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ps8ecFPBzSrkLC6ip/2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do)
- [What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4mgBR5fwJ9AZeugZC/what-should-the-norms-around-privacy-and-evaluation-in-the) - [Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/)
- [Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hrdxf5qdKmCZNWTvs/valuing-research-works-by-eliciting-comparisons-from-ea)
- [External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kTLR23dFRB5pJryvZ/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki)
- [Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/28/granular-AMF/)
- [Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9hQFfmbEiAoodstDA/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions)
- [A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/19/bayesian-adjustment-to-rethink-priorities-welfare-range-estimates/)
- [Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pqphZhx2nJocGCpwc/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners) - [Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pqphZhx2nJocGCpwc/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners)
- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zyfeDfqRyWhamwTiL/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions)
- [Some estimation work in the horizon](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/20/estimation-in-the-horizon/)
- [Estimation for sanity checks](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/10/estimation-sanity-checks/)
- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/oXrTQpZyXkEbTBfB6/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation)
- [Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/8XWi8FBkCuKfgPLMZ/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization)
- [Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/21/brief-evaluations-of-top-10-billionnaires/)
- [Use of "I'd bet" on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/02/metaphorical-bets/)
- [Things you should buy, quantified](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/06/things-you-should-buy-quantified/)
Relatedly, I have an interest in _red teaming_, Relatedly, I have an interest in _red teaming_,
@ -33,7 +42,6 @@ _Shapley values_:
- [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and) - [Shapley Values and Philanthropic Coordination Theory](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/3NYDwGvDbhwenpDHb/shapley-values-reloaded-philantropic-coordination-theory-and)
- [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/) - [A Shapley Value Calculator](http://shapleyvalue.com/)
_Economic models of social movement growth_: _Economic models of social movement growth_:
- [A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building) - [A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FXPaccMDPaEZNyyre/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building)
@ -49,9 +57,20 @@ _Categorization of new causes_:
_Technological discontinuities_: _Technological discontinuities_:
- [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities) - [A prior for technological discontinuities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities)
- [AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)
- [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html) - [Discontinuous trends in technological progress](https://nunosempere.github.io/rat/Discontinuous-Progress.html)
_AI-related_
- [My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/23/my-highly-personal-skepticism-braindump-on-existential-risk/)
- [A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/10/evolutionary-anchor/)
- [There will always be a Voigt-Kampff test](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/21/there-will-always-be-a-voigt-kampff-test/)
- [A basic argument for AI risk](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/12/23/ai-risk-rohin-shah/)
- [Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/01/11/can-gpt-produce-ideas/)
- [Review of Epoch's *Scaling transformative autoregressive models*](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/04/28/expert-review-epoch-direct-approach/)
- [Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/02/09/straightforwardly-eliciting-probabilities-from-gpt-3/)
- [Military Global Information Dominance Experiments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vDvKWdCCNo9moNcMr/us-military-global-information-dominance-experiments)
- [AI race considerations in a report by the U.S. House Committee on Armed Services](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87aqBTkhTgfzhu5po/ai-race-considerations-in-a-report-by-the-u-s-house)
_The fate of social movements_: _The fate of social movements_:
- [Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples) - [Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7Pxx7kSQejX2MM2tE/why-do-social-movements-fail-two-concrete-examples)