tweak: save progress.

blog/2022/11/28/list-of-past-fraudsters-similar-to-sbf/index.md

@@ -5,13 +5,13 @@ To inform my forecasting around FTX events, I looked at the [Wikipedia list of
 
 My main takeaway is that many salient aspects of FTX have precedents: the incestuous relationship between an exchange and a trading house (Bernie Madoff, Richard Whitney), a philosophical or philanthropic component (Enric Duran, Tom Petters, etc.), embroiling friends and families in the scheme (Charles Ponzi), or multi-billion fraud not getting found out for years (Elizabeth Holmes, many others).
 
-## Fraud with a philosophical, philanthropic or religious component
+### Fraud with a philosophical, philanthropic or religious component
 
-### [Bernard Ebbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Ebbers)
+#### [Bernard Ebbers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernard_Ebbers)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
-*   Amount: $18B
+*   Amount: $18B (all amounts are approximate and inflation-adjusted using [in2013dollars.com](https://www.in2013dollars.com/))
 
 I find the section on his faith most informative:
 
@@ -19,17 +19,17 @@ I find the section on his faith most informative:
 
 Also note that eventually, $8B was restored to investors.
 
-### [Enric Durán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enric_Duran)
+#### [Enric Durán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enric_Duran)
 
 *   Prison: No, life in hiding
 *   Jurisdiction: Spain
-*   Amount: ~$700k (all amounts are inflation approximate and adjusted using [in2013dollars.com](https://www.in2013dollars.com/))
+*   Amount: ~$700k 
 
 During the 2008 crisis, he robbed Spanish banks by taking out spurious loans, and donated the amounts to anticapitalist causes. He wrote a guide about how to do this, and widely distributed it: an online version in Spanish and English can be found [here](https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/sociopolitica/sociopol_globalbanking25.htm).
 
 Personal takeaway: Stealing money for altruistic causes is not unprecedented. And if you _are_ going to cross that line, it can be done with much more style. It will also be viewed much more sympathetically if you steal from organizations perceived to be corrupt.
 
-### [Tom Petters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Petters)
+#### [Tom Petters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Petters)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ Some of his donations were later returned (bold emphasis my own):
 
 > Petters formed the John T. Petters Foundation to provide gifts and endowments at select universities to benefit future college students. The foundation was formed to honor his son, John Thomas Petters, who was killed on a visit in 2004 to Florence, Italy. The college student inadvertently wandered onto private property where the owner, Alfio Raugei, mistook him for an intruder and stabbed him to death." In response, in September 2004, Tom Petters pledged $10 million to his late son's college, Miami University. **He later promised an additional $4 million, with the total to support two professorships and the John T. Petters Center for Leadership, Ethics and Skills Development** within the Farmer School of Business. **Miami University has since returned Petters' donation following his conviction**. Petters also donated $12 million to Rollins College in Winter Park, Florida, where he was a member of the Board of Trustees, to create two new faculty chairs in International Business.
 
-### [Allen Stanford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Stanford)
+#### [Allen Stanford](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allen_Stanford)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: British Overseas Territory 
@@ -55,9 +55,9 @@ This case is interesting because it also occurred overseas. Uninterestingly, All
 
 > In October 2009, the National Honours Committee of Antigua and Barbuda voted unanimously to strip Stanford of his knighthood.
 
-## Fraud on top of a legitimate business
+### Fraud on top of a legitimate business
 
-### [Marc Dreier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Dreier)
+#### [Marc Dreier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marc_Dreier)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US  
@@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ Dreier seems to have been a very smart guy who initially didn't attain success.
 
 > Marc Dreier's only television interview aired in 2009 on 60 Minutes titled, “The Swindler,” which was hosted by Steve Kroft. Dreier notes that he thought he would be featured on 60 minutes for something good that he had done, not for something bad. Kroft asks Dreier a question that was asked of Bernie Madoff, who many people find similarities with, about how someone could have kept up a scam for so long. Dreier noted that he had multiple stressors simultaneously that kept up his focus: the scam, a legitimate law business (funded by the scam), and his work as a practicing attorney.
 
-### [Richard Whitney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Whitney_(financier))
+#### [Richard Whitney](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Whitney_(financier))
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -79,7 +79,7 @@ This case is remarkable because he previously was the director of the New York E
 
 > At the same time that Richard Whitney was achieving great success, his brother George had also prospered at Morgan bank and by 1930 had been anointed as the likely successor to bank president, Thomas W. Lamont. While Richard Whitney was assumed to be a brilliant financier, he in fact had personally been involved with speculative investments in a variety of businesses and had sustained considerable losses. To stay afloat, he began borrowing heavily from his brother George as well as other wealthy friends, and after obtaining loans from as many people as he could, turned to embezzlement to cover his mounting business losses and maintain his extravagant lifestyle. He stole funds from the New York Stock Exchange Gratuity Fund, the New York Yacht Club (where he served as the Treasurer), and $800,000 worth of bonds from his father-in-law's estate.
 
-### [Barry Minkow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Minkow)
+#### [Barry Minkow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Minkow)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ The Wikipedia page just _keeps on going_:
 
 > After being released from jail, Minkow became a pastor and fraud investigator in San Diego, and spoke at churches and schools about ethics. This came to an end in 2011, when he admitted to helping deliberately drive down the stock price of homebuilder Lennar and was ordered back to prison for five years. Three years later, Minkow admitted to defrauding his own church and was sentenced to an additional five years in prison. He is subject to restitution requirements totaling $612 million.
 
-### [Bernie Madoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Madoff)
+#### [Bernie Madoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernie_Madoff)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ The Wikipedia page just _keeps on going_:
 
 There was a similar structure of having a trading house and a hedge fund. However, industry insiders suspected it. Most of the money was eventually returned.
 
-### [Lou Pearlman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Pearlman)
+#### [Lou Pearlman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lou_Pearlman)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ There was a similar structure of having a trading house and a hedge fund. Howeve
 
 Pearlman used income from the [Backstreet Boys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backstreet_Boys) and other bands which he either created or managed, to prop up an almost nonexistent aviation company.
 
-### [Crazy Eddie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crazy_Eddie)
+#### [Crazy Eddie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crazy_Eddie)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US
@@ -117,7 +117,7 @@ Pearlman used income from the [Backstreet Boys](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B
 
 Shares a similar pattern of having fraud on top of a legitimate business.
 
-### [Samuel D. Waksal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_D._Waksal)
+#### [Samuel D. Waksal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_D._Waksal)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -125,9 +125,9 @@ Shares a similar pattern of having fraud on top of a legitimate business.
 
 The Wikipedia page is unclear on whether the medicaments he pioneered were fraudulent, or whether the fraud was adjacent but unrelated.
 
-## Other somehow subjectively similar cases
+### Other somehow subjectively similar cases
 
-### [Charles Ponzi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ponzi)
+#### [Charles Ponzi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Ponzi)
 
 *   Prison: Yes 
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -135,7 +135,7 @@ The Wikipedia page is unclear on whether the medicaments he pioneered were fraud
 
 > Ponzi's investors even included those closest to him, like his chauffeur John Collins and his own brother-in-law. Ponzi was indiscriminate about whom he allowed to invest, from young newspaper boys investing a few dollars to high-net-worth individuals, like a banker from Lawrence, Kansas, who invested $10,000
 
-### [Tino De Angelis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tino_De_Angelis)
+#### [Tino De Angelis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tino_De_Angelis)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US
@@ -143,7 +143,7 @@ The Wikipedia page is unclear on whether the medicaments he pioneered were fraud
 
 Also borrowed based on faulty collateral. After his prison term, he went on to scam further.
 
-### [Alves dos Reis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alves_dos_Reis)
+#### [Alves dos Reis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alves_dos_Reis)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: Portugal, Angola 
@@ -151,7 +151,7 @@ Also borrowed based on faulty collateral. After his prison term, he went on to s
 
 Complicated plot to forge Portuguese banknotes in Angola, which was brought down when rivals accused it of being a front for the Germans, stopping a plan to become legitimate by acquiring the Bank of Portugal and hush away the fraudulent origins of the con.
 
-### [Jordan Belfort](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan_Belfort)
+#### [Jordan Belfort](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan_Belfort)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -159,7 +159,9 @@ Complicated plot to forge Portuguese banknotes in Angola, which was brought down
 
 Fictionalized in the _Wolf of Wall Street_ film. Belfort ended up paying 50% of his future income towards restitution, and giving somewhat scammy motivational and training seminars.
 
-### [Elizabeth Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes)
+EDIT h/t Greg Colbourn: The above is incorrect. Belfort was initially supposed to pay 50% of his salary, but sneaked out of it. See [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/jqJLcsqEqdnd35kTB/list-of-past-fraudsters-similar-to-sbf?commentId=4XbvuyyL5pLvGrBZQ#comments) for more details.
+
+#### [Elizabeth Holmes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Holmes)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -169,13 +171,13 @@ Homes seems to have been a similarly charismatic funder. Though in this case, it
 
 A takeaway for me: Fraud is surprisingly common, and investors probably price it in. 
 
-### [Kenneth Lay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) and [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) ([Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal))
+#### [Kenneth Lay](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) and [Jeffrey Skilling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling) ([Enron scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal))
 
 *   Prison: No (died before), yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US
 *   Amount: $40B
 
-### [James Paul Lewis Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Paul_Lewis_Jr.)
+#### [James Paul Lewis Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Paul_Lewis_Jr.)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -183,7 +185,7 @@ A takeaway for me: Fraud is surprisingly common, and investors probably price it
 
 Around half of his fortune was mandated to be returned, but only $11M was ultimately returned.
 
-### [Harshad Mehta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harshad_Mehta)
+#### [Harshad Mehta](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harshad_Mehta)
 
 *   Prison: No (died before)
 *   Jurisdiction: India 
@@ -191,7 +193,7 @@ Around half of his fortune was mandated to be returned, but only $11M was ultima
 
 Also financed market speculation with worthless securities which he himself created.
 
-### [John Rigas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Rigas)
+#### [John Rigas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Rigas)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US 
@@ -199,7 +201,7 @@ Also financed market speculation with worthless securities which he himself crea
 
 > The executives were accused of looting the corporation by concealing $2.3 billion in liabilities from corporate investors and of using corporation funds as their personal funds
 
-### [Ferdinand Ward](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Ward)
+#### [Ferdinand Ward](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Ward)
 
 *   Prison: Yes
 *   Jurisdiction: US  
@@ -207,7 +209,7 @@ Also financed market speculation with worthless securities which he himself crea
 
 > Ward ran the company as a Ponzi scheme, claiming that he had inside access to government contracts, a claim which gained further credence when the president later joined the firm as a full partner.
 
-### [Whitaker Wright](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitaker_Wright)
+#### [Whitaker Wright](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whitaker_Wright)
 
 *   Prison: No (suicide)
 *   Jurisdiction: US

blog/2022/12/05/goodhart-politics/.src/index-old.md

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+# Political ideologies in tension. 
+
+Currently, the various dominant ideological strains (neoliberalism, progressivism, etc.) are each able to point out each other's flaws, but not convince their opponents of their merits. I think that Goodhart's law and analogies to presocratic Greek philosophy are two fruitful lenses through which to view this situation. I conclude that better political technology is needed.
+
+### The situation
+
+[Goodhart's law](https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04585)[^1] points out that when you chase a metric, you will end up getting high scores by breaking the relationship between the metric and what initially made you care about it. For example, a few years ago the Spanish government wanted to reduce deaths from traffic accidents—a laudable goal—and ended up achieving this by changing the calculation methodology for "traffic accident deaths" so as to not include people who died from traffic accidents in the hospital a few days later.
+
+An enlightened progressive might correctly point out that a similar dynamic applies to letting laissez-faire market capitalism run amok. It will similarly lead to situations which maximize corporations' profits at the cost of human flourishing. On the less harmful side, this will result in addictive games or social media platforms. On the perverse side, this will lead to deals like the [Sumangali form of child labor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumangali_%28child_labour%29), where one side of the trade can't evaluate it and is thus reliably exploited. Therefore, labor protection laws and the paternal hand of the state is needed. To be clear, the argument isn't that laissez-faire market capitalism sometimes produces bad outcomes, but rather that in the absence of regulations, profit will be optimized for *at the expense* of human flourishing, and directly traded-off against it. 
+
+Conversely, neoliberals correctly see that relying on the paternal hand of the state has its own problems, like tremendous inefficiency compared to the private sector, [pork-barrel spending](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_barrel), myopic policies resulting from short election cycles, or corruption of the political process through [revolving doors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolving_door_%28politics%29) and ultimately [regulatory capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture). And market forces can indeed be a potent force to bring prosperity. 
+
+So we are in a situation where each side can make a convincing case that the other is wrong to its own followers, but isn't able to address the objections from the other side. This reminds me of presocratic philosophy, where Thale proposed that everything was made out of water and Anaximenes proposed that everything was made out of air. Like politics today, each could see that the other was wrong, but they couldn't convince the other side. 
+
+What is causing this situation is that both sides are wrong. More specifically, both sides have an [inner rethorical contradiction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aporia#Definitions) in that they are strongly pushing for an imperfect mechanism that doesn't always aim for human flourishing, but pretending that the mechanism that they are pushing for will always result in human flourishing, no matter how strongly they push.
+
+![Three arrows pointing in roughly the same direction, but with small differences. Two arrows represent two ideologies, another represents human flourishing. Although the human flourishing arrows and the ideology arrows seem close, they eventually start to diverge.](.images/diagram-1.png)
+
+### Proposed solutions
+
+At the individual level, a solution to this might involve something like following a Kantian categorical imperative: don't take actions—like profiting at the expense of other people's flourishing—that would make society shittier if other people did them as well. This might apply to personally working for a tobacco company, or personally making annoying advertisements. 
+
+At the societal level, the solution is less clear, and I think requires some ideation. Some solutions which I brainstorm were:
+  - Rely on charismatic political figures who are able to live with the tension between ideologies, and recognize the value in both. 
+  - Come up with better mechanisms to align governments and human flourishing
+  - Come up with better mechanisms to align markets and human flourishing
+  - Periodically refound states and institutions to rid them of ideological cruft and realign them with human flourishing
+  - Have more innovation around forms of government, perhaps within smaller states or with entities such as [Próspera](https://prospera.hn)
+  - Read the literature on [regulatory economics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_economics) and related areas.
+
+Oddly enough, Effective Altruism (EA), a social movement that I am very sympathetic to, doesn't have great answers here. What it recommends is, greatly simplified, "rigorously rank problems in the world and start working on them in order of importance". But this isn't enough to run a state. In fact, it's even worse, because one of the main EA organizations, Open Philanthropy, doesn't trust itself enough to be able to specify "the good", and so employs a kludge called "worldview diversification" in the meantime. 
+
+Other ideologies also have their own ideas here. I like the vision sketched in [State Capacity Libertarianism](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/what-libertarianism-has-become-and-will-become-state-capacity-libertarianism.html). My sense is that some recent feminist/progressive anthropology and social science also has the aim of highlighting or conceiving new types of societies in whose image we would improve our own society. 
+
+[^1]: In fact, [Goodhart's law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law), also known as the [Lucas critique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucas_critique) says something narrower, and it's the 
+
+---
+
+OP doesn't optimize too far because it doesn't believe it has good measures of the good, and so fears falling prey to Goodhart's law. But it could develop better measures which could allow it to deploy more optimization power.
+This explains their current attachment to worldview diversification

blog/2022/12/05/goodhart-politics/index.md

@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+Goodhart's law and aligning politics with human flourishing 
+===========================================================
+
+*Note: Written for someone I've been having political discussions with. For similarly introductory content, see [A quick note on the value of donations](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/06/note-donations/).*
+
+The world's major ideologies, like neoliberalism and progressivism, are stuck in a stalemate. They're great at pointing out each other's flaws, but neither side can make a compelling case for itself the other can't poke holes into. To understand why, I want to look to Goodhart's law and presocratic Greek philosophy for insights. Ultimately, though, I think we need better political tools to better align governments and institutions with human flourishing. 
+
+### The situation
+
+[Goodhart's law](https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04585) cautions against chasing a metric. When you do, you will end up achieving high scores in a way which undermines the metric's original purpose. For example, a few years ago the Spanish government aimed to reduce deaths from traffic accidents—a worthy goal. But instead of actually saving lives, they simply changed the definition of "traffic accident deaths" to exclude people who died in the hospital days after the accident.
+
+Progressives see this happening with unregulated capitalism. Without regulation, corporations will prioritize profits, even if it means sacrificing human well-being. For example, companies may create addictive games or social media platforms that monopolize our attention. In more extreme cases, they may exploit workers in ways that are outright abusive, such as the [Sumangali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumangali_%28child_labour%29) form of child labor. This is why we need labor protection laws and state intervention—to prevent such exploitation. The key point is that, without regulation, capitalism will inevitably prioritize profit over people.
+
+Neoliberals, on the other hand, rightly point out that relying on the state has its own set of problems. Government inefficiency compared to the private sector, [pork-barrel spending](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_barrel), myopic policies resulting from short election cycles, or corruption of the political process through [revolving doors](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolving_door_%28politics%29) and ultimately [regulatory capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_capture) can all have harmful effects. Neoliberals argue that market forces can be a powerful tool for generating prosperity, and that these issues should not be overlooked.[^1]
+
+[^1]: To be honest, my personal experience has been that neoliberals are able to acknowledge that capitalism is an imperfect systems, but still defend that it's a better system than others humanity has tried. Progressives can also be more or less nuancedly anti-market. So the above two paragraphs are just a quick sketch.
+
+So each side is skilled at articulating its opponent's weakeness, but is not as able to put forward an impregnable case for its own position. This stalemate is reminiscent of early presocratic philosophy. Thale and Anaximenes, for example, both put forth theories about the elemental composition of the universe—one claiming everything was made of water, the other asserting everything was made of air. Like politics today, each could see that the other was wrong, but they couldn't convince the other side. 
+
+The root of the problem is that both sides of this debate are in the wrong. Each side contains an [inherent rhetorical contradiction](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aporia#Definitions): they advocate for an imperfect mechanism that doesn't always prioritize human flourishing, while not realizing the degree to which it will not. This is my diagnosis for the current political stalemate.
+
+![Three arrows pointing in roughly the same direction, but with small differences. Two arrows represent two ideologies, another represents human flourishing. Although the human flourishing arrows and the ideology arrows seem close, they eventually start to diverge.](https://i.imgur.com/tlCqq4q.png)
+
+### Proposed solutions
+
+At the individual level, you could consciously avoid actions that make society shittier, like refusing job opportunities for a tobacco companies, or personally resisting creating irritating advertisements. You could also advocate for stronger social norms that discourage others from engaging in similar behaviors.
+
+At the societal level, the solution is less clear, and I think requires some ideation. Some solutions which I brainstormed were to:
+
+  - Rely on political figures who can bridge ideological divides and understand the importance of multiple perspectives.
+  - Come up with better mechanisms to align governments and human flourishing
+  - Come up with better mechanisms to align markets and human flourishing
+  - Periodically re-founding states and institutions to rid them of ideological cruft and realign them with human flourishing
+  - Have more innovation around forms of government, perhaps within smaller states or with entities such as [Próspera](https://prospera.hn)
+  - Read the literature on [regulatory economics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regulatory_economics) and related areas.
+
+The Effective Altruism (EA) movement doesn't have great answers here. It suggests to rigorously rank problems in the world and start working on them in order of importance. But this isn't a powerful enough answer to run a state. Other ideologies offer different embryonic approaches of how to proceed. The vision sketched in [State Capacity Libertarianism](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/what-libertarianism-has-become-and-will-become-state-capacity-libertarianism.html) presents a libertarianism tweaked to deal with problems requiring large amounts of coordination, but is lacking in detail. My sense is also that some recent feminist/progressive anthropology and social science also has the aim of highlighting or conceiving new types of societies in whose image we would improve our own society. 
+
+All in all, the above analysis seems fairly rough. For one, it at time assumes that people share the same goals, and just differ in the mechanisms they think are best to achieve these common goals. Still, perhaps the above is clarifying to some readers. 
+
+
+<p><section id="isso-thread">
+  <noscript>Javascript needs to be activated to view comments.</noscript>
+</section></p>

index.md

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-I'm Nuño Sempere. I do research, write software and predict the future. This webpage is currently a work in progress.
+I'm Nuño Sempere. I do research, write software, and predict the future.
 
 <img src="https://i.imgur.com/rvwA0Wr.jpg" alt="image of myself" class="img-frontpage-center"> 
 
@@ -8,7 +8,6 @@ I'm Nu&#xF1;o Sempere. I do research, write software and predict the future. Thi
 2. [Forecasting Newsletter](https://forecasting.substack.com/): What is up in the world of forecasting?
 3. [Metaforecast](https://metaforecast.org/): A search engine for probabilities
 
-### Readers might also enjoy...
-
-...reading the [gossip](/gossip) page or seeing the latest on my [blog](https://nunosempere.com/blog/) to see what's new.
+### Readers might also wish to...
 
+...read the [gossip](/gossip) page, visit my [blog](/blog), or [sign up for my newsletter](/.subscribe).