diff --git a/blog/2019/index.md b/blog/2019/index.md index f3778d1..1724457 100644 --- a/blog/2019/index.md +++ b/blog/2019/index.md @@ -1,7 +1,7 @@ ## In 2019... -- [EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://nunosempere.com/2019/06/13/ea-mental-health) -- [Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples.](https://nunosempere.com/2019/10/04/social-movements) -- [Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://nunosempere.com/2019/10/10/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) -- [[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://nunosempere.com/2019/12/19/amplifying-general-research-via-forecasting-i) -- [[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://nunosempere.com/2019/12/20/amplifying-general-research-via-forecasting-ii) +- [EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/06/13/ea-mental-health) +- [Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/04/social-movements) +- [Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/10/10/shapley-values-better-than-counterfactuals) +- [[Part 1] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – models of impact and challenges](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/12/19/amplifying-general-research-via-forecasting-i) +- [[Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2019/12/20/amplifying-general-research-via-forecasting-ii) diff --git a/blog/2020/index.md b/blog/2020/index.md index fc3454d..03255c5 100644 --- a/blog/2020/index.md +++ b/blog/2020/index.md @@ -1,20 +1,20 @@ ## In 2020... -- [A review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://nunosempere.com/2020/01/15/mit-edx-review) -- [A review of two books on survey-making](https://nunosempere.com/2020/03/01/survey-making) -- [Shapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/03/10/shapley-values-ii) -- [New Cause Proposal: International Supply Chain Accountability](https://nunosempere.com/2020/04/01/international-supply-chain-accountability) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020](https://nunosempere.com/2020/04/30/forecasting-newsletter-2020-04) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/05/31/forecasting-newsletter-2020-05) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/07/01/forecasting-newsletter-2020-06) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/08/01/forecasting-newsletter-2020-07) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020. ](https://nunosempere.com/2020/09/01/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020. ](https://nunosempere.com/2020/10/01/forecasting-newsletter-september-2020) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/11/01/forecasting-newsletter-october-2020) -- [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/11/10/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions) -- [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://nunosempere.com/2020/11/15/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) -- [Predicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/11/22/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of) -- [An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/01/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/01/forecasting-newsletter-november-2020) -- [What are good rubrics or rubric elements to evaluate and predict impact?](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/03/what-are-good-rubrics-or-rubric-elements-to-evaluate-and) -- [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/25/big-list-of-cause-candidates) +- [A review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/01/15/mit-edx-review) +- [A review of two books on survey-making](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/03/01/survey-making) +- [Shapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/03/10/shapley-values-ii) +- [New Cause Proposal: International Supply Chain Accountability](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/04/01/international-supply-chain-accountability) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/04/30/forecasting-newsletter-2020-04) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/05/31/forecasting-newsletter-2020-05) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/07/01/forecasting-newsletter-2020-06) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/08/01/forecasting-newsletter-2020-07) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020. ](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/09/01/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020. ](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/10/01/forecasting-newsletter-september-2020) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/11/01/forecasting-newsletter-october-2020) +- [Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/11/10/incentive-problems-with-current-forecasting-competitions) +- [Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/11/15/announcing-the-forecasting-innovation-prize) +- [Predicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/11/22/predicting-the-value-of-small-altruistic-projects-a-proof-of) +- [An experiment to evaluate the value of one researcher's work](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/12/01/an-experiment-to-evaluate-the-value-of-one-researcher-s-work) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/12/01/forecasting-newsletter-november-2020) +- [What are good rubrics or rubric elements to evaluate and predict impact?](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/12/03/what-are-good-rubrics-or-rubric-elements-to-evaluate-and) +- [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2020/12/25/big-list-of-cause-candidates) diff --git a/blog/2021/index.md b/blog/2021/index.md index 6e4c2c4..9080ec9 100644 --- a/blog/2021/index.md +++ b/blog/2021/index.md @@ -1,30 +1,30 @@ ## In 2021... -- [Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020](https://nunosempere.com/2021/01/01/forecasting-newsletter-december-2020) -- [2020: Forecasting in Review](https://nunosempere.com/2021/01/10/2020-forecasting-in-review) -- [A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://nunosempere.com/2021/01/13/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/02/01/forecasting-newsletter-january-2021) -- [Forecasting Prize Results](https://nunosempere.com/2021/02/19/forecasting-prize-results) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/03/01/forecasting-newsletter-february-2021) -- [Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://nunosempere.com/2021/03/07/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search) -- [Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://nunosempere.com/2021/03/16/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/04/01/forecasting-newsletter-march-2021) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/05/01/forecasting-newsletter-april-2021) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/06/01/forecasting-newsletter-may-2021) -- [2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?](https://nunosempere.com/2021/06/16/2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do) -- [What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?](https://nunosempere.com/2021/06/16/what-should-the-norms-around-privacy-and-evaluation-in-the) -- [Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations](https://nunosempere.com/2021/06/24/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/07/01/forecasting-newsletter-june-2021) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/08/01/forecasting-newsletter-july-2021) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/09/01/forecasting-newsletter-august-2021) -- [Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers](https://nunosempere.com/2021/09/01/frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers) -- [Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://nunosempere.com/2021/09/20/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021.](https://nunosempere.com/2021/10/01/forecasting-newsletter-september-2021) -- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://nunosempere.com/2021/10/22/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.](https://nunosempere.com/2021/11/02/forecasting-newsletter-october-2021) -- [A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://nunosempere.com/2021/11/08/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building) -- [Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://nunosempere.com/2021/11/15/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions) -- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://nunosempere.com/2021/11/25/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2021/12/02/forecasting-newsletter-november-2021) -- [External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://nunosempere.com/2021/12/13/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki) -- [Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://nunosempere.com/2021/12/31/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/01/01/forecasting-newsletter-december-2020) +- [2020: Forecasting in Review](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/01/10/2020-forecasting-in-review) +- [A Funnel for Cause Candidates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/01/13/a-funnel-for-cause-candidates) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/02/01/forecasting-newsletter-january-2021) +- [Forecasting Prize Results](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/02/19/forecasting-prize-results) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/03/01/forecasting-newsletter-february-2021) +- [Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/03/07/introducing-metaforecast-a-forecast-aggregator-and-search) +- [Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/03/16/relative-impact-of-the-first-10-ea-forum-prize-winners) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/04/01/forecasting-newsletter-march-2021) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/05/01/forecasting-newsletter-april-2021) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/06/01/forecasting-newsletter-may-2021) +- [2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/06/16/2018-2019-long-term-future-fund-grantees-how-did-they-do) +- [What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/06/16/what-should-the-norms-around-privacy-and-evaluation-in-the) +- [Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/06/24/shallow-evaluations-of-longtermist-organizations) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/07/01/forecasting-newsletter-june-2021) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/08/01/forecasting-newsletter-july-2021) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/09/01/forecasting-newsletter-august-2021) +- [Frank Feedback Given To Very Junior Researchers](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/09/01/frank-feedback-given-to-very-junior-researchers) +- [Building Blocks of Utility Maximization](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/09/20/building-blocks-of-utility-maximization) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2021.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/10/01/forecasting-newsletter-september-2021) +- [An estimate of the value of Metaculus questions](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/10/22/an-estimate-of-the-value-of-metaculus-questions) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/11/02/forecasting-newsletter-october-2021) +- [A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/11/08/a-model-of-patient-spending-and-movement-building) +- [Simple comparison polling to create utility functions](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/11/15/simple-comparison-polling-to-create-utility-functions) +- [Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/11/25/pathways-to-impact-for-forecasting-and-evaluation) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/12/02/forecasting-newsletter-november-2021) +- [External Evaluation of the EA Wiki](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/12/13/external-evaluation-of-the-ea-wiki) +- [Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2021/12/31/prediction-markets-in-the-corporate-setting) diff --git a/blog/2022/index.md b/blog/2022/index.md index 6e2b13b..097e342 100644 --- a/blog/2022/index.md +++ b/blog/2022/index.md @@ -1,59 +1,59 @@ ## In 2022... -- [Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2022/01/10/forecasting-newsletter-december-2021) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/01/27/forecasting-newsletter-looking-back-at-2021) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/02/03/forecasting-newsletter-january-2022) -- [Splitting the timeline as an extinction risk intervention](https://nunosempere.com/2022/02/06/splitting-the-timeline-as-an-extinction-risk-intervention) -- [We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants](https://nunosempere.com/2022/02/08/we-are-giving-usd10k-as-forecasting-micro-grants) -- [Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions](https://nunosempere.com/2022/02/18/five-steps-for-quantifying-speculative-interventions) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/03/05/forecasting-newsletter-february-2022) -- [Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/03/10/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022) -- [Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers](https://nunosempere.com/2022/03/17/valuing-research-works-by-eliciting-comparisons-from-ea) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/01/forecasting-newsletter-april-2222) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/05/forecasting-newsletter-march-2022) -- [A quick note on the value of donations](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/06/note-donations) -- [Open Philanthopy allocation by cause area](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/07/openphil-allocation) -- [Better scoring rules](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/16/optimal-scoring) -- [Simple Squiggle](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle) -- [EA Forum Lowdown: April 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/05/01/ea-forum-lowdown-april-2022) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/05/10/forecasting-newsletter-april-2022) -- [Infinite Ethics 101: Stochastic and Statewise Dominance as a Backup Decision Theory when Expected Values Fail](https://nunosempere.com/2022/05/20/infinite-ethics-101) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/06/03/forecasting-newsletter-may-2022) -- [The Tragedy of Calisto and Melibea](https://nunosempere.com/2022/06/14/the-tragedy-of-calisto-and-melibea) -- [A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform](https://nunosempere.com/2022/06/16/criminal-justice) -- [Cancellation insurance](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/04/cancellation-insurance) -- [I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure) -- [The Maximum Vindictiveness Strategy](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/09/maximum-vindictiveness-strategy) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/12/forecasting-newsletter-june-2022) -- [Some thoughts on Turing.jl](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/23/thoughts-on-turing-julia) -- [How much would I have to run to lose 20 kilograms?](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/27/how-much-to-run-to-lose-20-kilograms) -- [$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/08/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022) -- [A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/10/evolutionary-anchor) -- [What do Americans think 'cutlery' means?](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery) -- [Introduction to Fermi estimates](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction) -- [A comment on Cox's theorem and probabilistic inductivism.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/31/on-cox-s-theorem-and-probabilistic-induction) -- [Simple estimation examples in Squiggle](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/02/simple-estimation-examples-in-squiggle) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/10/forecasting-newsletter-august-2022) -- [Distribution of salaries in Spain](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/11/salary-ranges-spain) -- [An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/12/an-experiment-eliciting-relative-estimates-for-open) -- [Use distributions to more parsimoniously estimate impact](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/15/use-distributions-to-more-parsimoniously-estimate-impact) -- [Utilitarianism: An Incomplete Approach](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/19/utilitarianism-an-incomplete-approach) -- [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/23/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top) -- [Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/28/granular-AMF) -- [Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/03/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022) -- [Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/10/five-slightly-more-hardcore-squiggle-models) -- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/12/forecasting-newsletter-september-2022) -- [Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/17/the-commons) -- [Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/21/brief-evaluations-of-top-10-billionnaires) -- [Are flimsy evaluations worth it?](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/27/are-flimsy-evaluations-worth-it) -- [Brief thoughts on my personal research strategy](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/31/brief-thoughts-personal-strategy) -- [Metaforecast late 2022 update: GraphQL API, Charts, better infrastructure behind the scenes.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/04/metaforecast-late-2022-update) -- [Tracking the money flows in forecasting](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/06/forecasting-money-flows) -- [Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/15/forecasting-newsletter-for-october-2022) -- [Some data on the stock of EA™ funding ](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding) -- [List of past fraudsters similar to SBF](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/28/list-of-past-fraudsters-similar-to-sbf) -- [Goodhart's law and aligning politics with human flourishing ](https://nunosempere.com/2022/12/05/goodhart-politics) -- [COVID-19 in rural Balochistan, Pakistan: Two interviews from May 2020](https://nunosempere.com/2022/12/16/covid-19-in-rural-balochistan-pakistan-two-interviews-from-1) -- [Hacking on rose](https://nunosempere.com/2022/12/20/hacking-on-rose) -- [A basic argument for AI risk](https://nunosempere.com/2022/12/23/ai-risk-rohin-shah) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/01/10/forecasting-newsletter-december-2021) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/01/27/forecasting-newsletter-looking-back-at-2021) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/02/03/forecasting-newsletter-january-2022) +- [Splitting the timeline as an extinction risk intervention](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/02/06/splitting-the-timeline-as-an-extinction-risk-intervention) +- [We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/02/08/we-are-giving-usd10k-as-forecasting-micro-grants) +- [Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/02/18/five-steps-for-quantifying-speculative-interventions) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/03/05/forecasting-newsletter-february-2022) +- [Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/03/10/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022) +- [Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/03/17/valuing-research-works-by-eliciting-comparisons-from-ea) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/01/forecasting-newsletter-april-2222) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/05/forecasting-newsletter-march-2022) +- [A quick note on the value of donations](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/06/note-donations) +- [Open Philanthopy allocation by cause area](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/07/openphil-allocation) +- [Better scoring rules](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/16/optimal-scoring) +- [Simple Squiggle](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle) +- [EA Forum Lowdown: April 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/01/ea-forum-lowdown-april-2022) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/10/forecasting-newsletter-april-2022) +- [Infinite Ethics 101: Stochastic and Statewise Dominance as a Backup Decision Theory when Expected Values Fail](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/05/20/infinite-ethics-101) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/06/03/forecasting-newsletter-may-2022) +- [The Tragedy of Calisto and Melibea](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/06/14/the-tragedy-of-calisto-and-melibea) +- [A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/06/16/criminal-justice) +- [Cancellation insurance](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/07/04/cancellation-insurance) +- [I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure) +- [The Maximum Vindictiveness Strategy](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/07/09/maximum-vindictiveness-strategy) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/07/12/forecasting-newsletter-june-2022) +- [Some thoughts on Turing.jl](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/07/23/thoughts-on-turing-julia) +- [How much would I have to run to lose 20 kilograms?](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/07/27/how-much-to-run-to-lose-20-kilograms) +- [$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/08/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022) +- [A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/10/evolutionary-anchor) +- [What do Americans think 'cutlery' means?](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery) +- [Introduction to Fermi estimates](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction) +- [A comment on Cox's theorem and probabilistic inductivism.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/08/31/on-cox-s-theorem-and-probabilistic-induction) +- [Simple estimation examples in Squiggle](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/02/simple-estimation-examples-in-squiggle) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/10/forecasting-newsletter-august-2022) +- [Distribution of salaries in Spain](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/11/salary-ranges-spain) +- [An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/12/an-experiment-eliciting-relative-estimates-for-open) +- [Use distributions to more parsimoniously estimate impact](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/15/use-distributions-to-more-parsimoniously-estimate-impact) +- [Utilitarianism: An Incomplete Approach](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/19/utilitarianism-an-incomplete-approach) +- [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/23/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top) +- [Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/09/28/granular-AMF) +- [Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/03/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022) +- [Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/10/five-slightly-more-hardcore-squiggle-models) +- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/12/forecasting-newsletter-september-2022) +- [Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/17/the-commons) +- [Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/21/brief-evaluations-of-top-10-billionnaires) +- [Are flimsy evaluations worth it?](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/27/are-flimsy-evaluations-worth-it) +- [Brief thoughts on my personal research strategy](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/10/31/brief-thoughts-personal-strategy) +- [Metaforecast late 2022 update: GraphQL API, Charts, better infrastructure behind the scenes.](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/04/metaforecast-late-2022-update) +- [Tracking the money flows in forecasting](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/06/forecasting-money-flows) +- [Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/15/forecasting-newsletter-for-october-2022) +- [Some data on the stock of EA™ funding ](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding) +- [List of past fraudsters similar to SBF](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/11/28/list-of-past-fraudsters-similar-to-sbf) +- [Goodhart's law and aligning politics with human flourishing ](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/12/05/goodhart-politics) +- [COVID-19 in rural Balochistan, Pakistan: Two interviews from May 2020](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/12/16/covid-19-in-rural-balochistan-pakistan-two-interviews-from-1) +- [Hacking on rose](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/12/20/hacking-on-rose) +- [A basic argument for AI risk](https://nunosempere.com/blog/2022/12/23/ai-risk-rohin-shah) diff --git a/blog/2023/04/28/expert-review-epoch-direct-approach/index.md b/blog/2023/04/28/expert-review-epoch-direct-approach/index.md index 29237fd..cd44e4a 100644 --- a/blog/2023/04/28/expert-review-epoch-direct-approach/index.md +++ b/blog/2023/04/28/expert-review-epoch-direct-approach/index.md @@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ As for suggestions, my main one would be to add more analytical clarity, and to The forecast is conditional on scaling laws continuing as they have, and on the various analytical assumptions not introducing too much error. And it's not a forecast of when models will be transformative, but of an upper bound, because as we mentioned at the beginning, indistinguishability is a sufficient but not a necessary condition for transformative AI. The authors point this out at the beginning, but I think this could be pointed out more obviously. -The text also generally needs an editor (e.g., use the first person plural, as there are two authors). As I was reading it, I felt the compulsion to rewrite it in better prose. But I didn't think that it was worth it for me to do that, or to point out style mistakes—besides my wish for greater clarity—because you can just hire an editor for this. And also, an alert reader should be able to extract the core of what you are saying even though prose could be improved. I did write down some impressions as I was reading in a different document, though. +The text also generally needs an editor (e.g., use the first person plural, as there are two authors). As I was reading it, I felt the compulsion to rewrite it in better prose. But I did not think that it was worth it for me to do that, or to point out style mistakes—besides my wish for greater clarity—because you can just hire an editor for this. And also, an alert reader should be able to extract the core of what you are saying even though prose could be improved. I did write down some impressions as I was reading in a different document, though. Overall I liked it, and would recommend that it be published. It's the kind of thing that, even if one thinks that it is not enough for a forecast on its own, seems like it would be a valuable input into other forecasts. diff --git a/blog/2023/08/14/software-i-am-hosting/index.md b/blog/2023/08/14/software-i-am-hosting/index.md index 912617c..b72e7f6 100644 --- a/blog/2023/08/14/software-i-am-hosting/index.md +++ b/blog/2023/08/14/software-i-am-hosting/index.md @@ -1,4 +1,4 @@ -Software I am making available to my corner of the internet +Webpages I am making available to my corner of the internet =========================================================== Here is a list of internet services that I make freely available to friends and allies, broadly defined—if you are reading this, you qualify. These are ordered roughly in order of usefulness. diff --git a/blog/2023/08/19/keep-track-of-accuracy-on-twitter/.src/calibrationChart2.png b/blog/2023/08/19/keep-track-of-accuracy-on-twitter/.src/calibrationChart2.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..4dd834b Binary files /dev/null and b/blog/2023/08/19/keep-track-of-accuracy-on-twitter/.src/calibrationChart2.png differ diff --git a/blog/2023/08/19/keep-track-of-accuracy-on-twitter/.src/index.html b/blog/2023/08/19/keep-track-of-accuracy-on-twitter/.src/index.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..82f2384 --- /dev/null +++ b/blog/2023/08/19/keep-track-of-accuracy-on-twitter/.src/index.html @@ -0,0 +1,111 @@ +
tl;dr: Incorporate keeping track of accuracy into X1. This contributes to the goal of making X the chief source of information, and strengthens humanity by providing better epistemic incentives and better mechanisms to separate the wheat from the chaff in terms of getting at the truth together.
+ +I think that you can distill the core of keeping track of accuracy to three elements2: predict, resolve, and tally. You can see a minimal implementation of this functionality in <60 lines of bash here.
+ +make a prediction. This prediction could take the form of
+ +I think that the sweet spot is on #2: asking for probabilities. #1 doesn’t capture that we normally have uncertainty about events—e.g., in the recent superconductor debacle, we were not completely sure one way or the other until the end—, and it is tricky to have a system which scores both #3-#5 and #2. Particularly at scale, I would lean towards recommending using probabilities rather than something more ambitious, at first.
+ +Note that each example gave both a statement that was being predicted, and a date by which the prediction is resolved.
+ +Once the date of resolution has been reached, a prediction can be marked as true/false/ambiguous. Ambiguous resolutions are bad, because the people who have put effort into making a prediction feel like their time has been wasted, so it is good to minimize them.
+ +You can have a few distinct methods of resolution. Here are a few:
+ +Note that you can have resolution methods that can be challeged, like the lower court/court of appeals/supreme court system in the US. For example, you could have a system where initially a question is resolved by a small number of randomly chosen jurors, but if someone gives a strong signal that they object to the resolution—e.g., if they pay for it, or if they spend one of a few “appeals” tokens—then the question is resolved by a larger pool of jurors.
+ +Note that the resolution method will shape the flavour of your prediction functionality, and constrain the types of questions that people can forecast on. You can have a more anarchic system, where everyone can instantly create a question and predict on it. Then, people will create many more questions, but perhaps they will have a bias towards resolving questions in their own favour, and you will have slightly duplicate questions. Then you will get something closer to Manifold Markets. Or you could have a mechanism where people propose questions and these are made robust to corner cases in their resolution criteria by volunteers, and then later resolved by a jury of volunteers. Then you will get something like Metaculus, where you have fewer questions but these are of higher quality and have more reliable resolutions.
+ +Ultimately, I’m not saying that the resolution method is unimportant. But I think there is a temptation to nerd out too much about the specifics, and having some resolution method that is transparently outlined and shipping it quickly seems much better than getting stuck at this step.
+ +Lastly, present the information about what proportion of people’s predictions come true. E.g., of the times I have predicted a 60% likelihood of something, how often has it come true? Ditto for other percentages. These are normally binned to produce a calibration chart, like the following:
+ + + +On top of that starting point, you can also do more elaborate things:
+ +Here is a review of some mistakes people have previously made when scoring these kinds of forecasts. For example, if you have some per-question accuracy reward, people will gravitate towards forecasting on easier rather than on more useful questions. These kinds of considerations are important, particularly since they will determine who will be at the top of some scoring leaderboard, if there is any such. Generally, Goodhart’s law is going to be a problem here. But again, having some tallying mechanism seems way better than the current information environment.
+ +Once you have some tallying—whether a calibration chart, a score from a proper scoring rule, or some profit it Musk-Bucks3, such a tally could:
+ +When dealing with catastrophes, wars, discoveries, and generally with events that challenge humanity’s ability to figure out what is going on, having these mechanisms in place would help humanity make better decisions about who to listen to: to listen not to who is loudest but to who is most right.
+ +X can do this. It would help with its goal of outcompeting other sources of information, and it would do this fair and square by improving humanity’s collective ability to get at the truth. I don’t know what other challenges and plans Musk has in store for X, but I would strongly consider adding this functionality to it.
+ +
+
+