more cleanup after imgur
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@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ I also had a payout for insightful comments, such that the nth most upvoted comm
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Note that the projects were _not_ chosen so as to maximize impact, but rather as to maximize information about whether their value could be predicted.
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Note that the projects were _not_ chosen so as to maximize impact, but rather as to maximize information about whether their value could be predicted.
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We observe that:
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We observe that:
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@ -96,7 +96,7 @@ Predictions:
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 33 to 74
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 33 to 74
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 11 to 111
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 11 to 111
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Actual upvotes after one month: 31
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Actual upvotes after one month: 31
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@ -114,7 +114,7 @@ Predictions:
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 28 to 68
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 28 to 68
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 9 to 106
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 9 to 106
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Actual upvotes after one month: 20 for the [first post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yWmmYLCJft7u7XL5o/some-examples-of-technology-timelines), 49 for the [second one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities). I'm taking 49 as the resolution.
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Actual upvotes after one month: 20 for the [first post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yWmmYLCJft7u7XL5o/some-examples-of-technology-timelines), 49 for the [second one](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FaCqw2x59ZFhMXJr9/a-prior-for-technological-discontinuities). I'm taking 49 as the resolution.
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@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ Predictions:
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 15 to 57
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 15 to 57
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 4 to 91
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 4 to 91
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Actual upvotes after one month: 22
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Actual upvotes after one month: 22
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@ -150,7 +150,7 @@ Predictions:
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 17 to 60
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 17 to 60
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 6 to 102
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 6 to 102
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Actual upvotes after one month: 20
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Actual upvotes after one month: 20
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@ -167,7 +167,7 @@ Predictions:
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 19 to 59
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 19 to 59
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 7 to 92
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 7 to 92
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Actual upvotes after one month: 27
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Actual upvotes after one month: 27
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@ -182,7 +182,7 @@ A further idea was my proposal for my Summer Research Fellowship at FHI, though
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 24 to 70
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* Centered 50% confidence interval: 24 to 70
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 10 to 103
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* Centered 95% confidence interval: 10 to 103
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I take these data-points as further evidence that this setup is interesting or worth it; arguably a major take-away for this project is “a fairly simple forecasting system is able to produce a project which gets accepted to the FHI summer fellowship.” Because the program got ~300 [applications](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EPGdwe6vsCY7A9HPa/review-of-fhi-s-summer-research-fellowship-2020), but only 27 participants were accepted, this puts this forecasting setup on the top 9% of applicants in terms of some fuzzy “optimization power” (though this is a simplification, because the project proposal was probably one of many factors.)
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I take these data-points as further evidence that this setup is interesting or worth it; arguably a major take-away for this project is “a fairly simple forecasting system is able to produce a project which gets accepted to the FHI summer fellowship.” Because the program got ~300 [applications](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EPGdwe6vsCY7A9HPa/review-of-fhi-s-summer-research-fellowship-2020), but only 27 participants were accepted, this puts this forecasting setup on the top 9% of applicants in terms of some fuzzy “optimization power” (though this is a simplification, because the project proposal was probably one of many factors.)
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