tweak: add new blogpost
This commit is contained in:
parent
dbf67c4661
commit
3b62fb4fcd
|
|
@ -1,9 +1,17 @@
|
|||
<!--
|
||||
Send me an email to list@nunosempere.com with subject "Subscribe to blog" and your name.
|
||||
|
||||
There previously was a form here, but I think someone was inputting random emails, so that's it for now.
|
||||
|
||||
-->
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
<form method="post" action="https://listmonk.nunosempere.com/subscription/form" class="listmonk-form">
|
||||
<div>
|
||||
<h3>Subscribe</h3>
|
||||
<input type="hidden" name="nonce" />
|
||||
<p><input type="email" name="email" required placeholder="E-mail" class="subscribe-input"/></p>
|
||||
<p><input type="text" name="name" placeholder="Name (optional)" class="subscribe-input"/></ap>
|
||||
<p><input type="text" name="name" placeholder="Name (helps me filter out malicious entries)" class="subscribe-input"/></ap>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
<input id="82ff8" type="checkbox" name="l" checked value="82ff889c-f9d9-4a45-bf9a-7e2696813021" />
|
||||
|
|
@ -13,3 +21,7 @@
|
|||
<p><input type="submit" value="Subscribe" class="subscribe-button"/></p>
|
||||
</div>
|
||||
</form>
|
||||
|
||||
<p>
|
||||
...or send me an email to list@nunosempere.com with subject "Subscribe to blog" and your name.
|
||||
</p>
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Binary file not shown.
|
Before Width: | Height: | Size: 102 KiB |
Binary file not shown.
|
Before Width: | Height: | Size: 159 KiB |
Binary file not shown.
|
Before Width: | Height: | Size: 170 KiB |
|
|
@ -1,24 +0,0 @@
|
|||
Hacking on rose
|
||||
===============
|
||||
|
||||
The [rose browser](https://github.com/mini-rose/rose) is a minimal browser for Linux machines. I've immensely enjoyed hacking on it this last week, so I thought I'd leave some notes.
|
||||
|
||||
Rose is written in C, and it's based on Webkit and GTK. Webkit is the engine that drives Safari, and a fork of some previous open-source libraries, [KHTML](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KHTML) and [KJS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KJS_%28software%29). [GTK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GTK) is a library for creating graphical interfaces. You can conveniently use the two together using [WebKitGTK](https://webkitgtk.org/).
|
||||
|
||||
Personally, I find the simplicity of the code soothing. At the same time, though, I've been adding some code to it, to make the browser more usable and for the fun of it. You can see my tweaks [here](https://github.com/NunoSempere/rose-browser).
|
||||
|
||||
My first tweak was to add a [reader mode](https://github.com/NunoSempere/rose-browser/tree/personal/plugins/readability). It, for instance, returns this beautiful page:
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
when fed the aesthetic abomination that is Matt Levine's newsletter:
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
I lifted the code for doing this from [Firefox](https://github.com/mozilla/readability), figured out how to integrate it with WebKit, and then improved it a bit.
|
||||
|
||||
My second big tweak was to add [redirection functionality](https://github.com/NunoSempere/rose-browser/tree/personal/plugins/libre_redirect) from annoying websites to their open source frontends, in the style of [LibRedirect](https://libredirect.codeberg.page/):
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
And I've added some code for installing this browser on [Ubuntu 20.04](https://github.com/NunoSempere/rose-browser/raw/personal/rose), which is what I'm personally using. If you are a dear friend using Linux feel free to ask for help if you get stuck trying to install this.
|
||||
|
|
@ -127,7 +127,10 @@ For uncertainty about the number of beneficiaries, we could naïvely write:
|
|||
valueWithUncertaintyAboutNumBeneficiaries(num_beneficiaries_dist, population_age_distribution, benefitForPersonOfAge) = {
|
||||
numSamples = 1000
|
||||
num_beneficiaries_samples_list = sampleN(num_beneficiaries_dist, numSamples)
|
||||
benefits_list = List.map(num_beneficiaries_samples_list, {|n| valueOfInterventionInPopulation(n, population_age_distribution, benefitForPersonOfAge)})
|
||||
benefits_list = List.map(num_beneficiaries_samples_list,
|
||||
{|n|
|
||||
valueOfInterventionInPopulation(n, population_age_distribution, benefitForPersonOfAge)
|
||||
})
|
||||
result = mixture(benefits_list)
|
||||
result
|
||||
}
|
||||
|
|
@ -239,7 +242,11 @@ And then we can specify our amount of funds;
|
|||
```
|
||||
availableFunds = 1M // dollars
|
||||
calculationIncrement = 1 // calculate dollar by dollar
|
||||
Danger.optimalAllocationGivenDiminishingMarginalReturnsForManyFunctions(listOfDiminishingMarginalReturns, availableFunds, calculationIncrement)
|
||||
Danger.optimalAllocationGivenDiminishingMarginalReturnsForManyFunctions(
|
||||
listOfDiminishingMarginalReturns,
|
||||
availableFunds,
|
||||
calculationIncrement
|
||||
)
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
So in this case, the difficulty comes not from applying a function, but from adding that function to Squiggle. This can be seen [here](https://github.com/quantified-uncertainty/squiggle/blob/develop/packages/squiggle-lang/src/rescript/FR/FR_Danger.res#L278).
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,354 @@
|
|||
COVID-19 in rural Balochistan, Pakistan: Two interviews from May 2020
|
||||
=====================================================================
|
||||
|
||||
The interviews were carried out to better inform a team of forecasters and superforecasters working with an organization which was aiming to develop better COVID-19 forecasts early on in the pandemic for countries and regions which didn't have the capability. Said team and I came up with the questions, and the interviews themselves were carried out in Urdu by [Quratulain Zainab](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/qurat) and then translated back to English.
|
||||
|
||||
Back then, I think these interviews were fairly valuable in terms of giving more information to our team. Now, more than two years later I'm getting around to sharing this post because it could help readers develop better models of the world, because it may have some relevance to some [philosophical debates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/rGA32YnSYGL9QEoj9/guerrilla-foundation-response-to-ea-forum-discussion) around altruism, and because of "[draft amnesty day](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vHogKj87ZBLgN8TpQ/today-is-draft-amnesty-day-december-16-18)".
|
||||
|
||||
## Interview 1.
|
||||
|
||||
The conversation was with Najeeb from Loralai, Balochistan. This is a translation from Urdu. The translator, Quratulain, would like to specify that they don’t talk exactly like this. The interview was carried out on the 12th of May of 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Where are you from in Balochistan? City or village?
|
||||
|
||||
N: I’m from Balochistan’s Larolai district, it’s 5 km from the city
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Okay. In your area, how many people live in each house?
|
||||
|
||||
N: There's a combined family system here. In each house, an average of 15-20 people. In some houses, up to 30-40. I told you the average.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: How much distance is there between each house?
|
||||
|
||||
N: There’s no distances. Attached houses.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What do people there think about coronavirus? Are they worried about it or not so much? What do you yourself think about it?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Our city is almost Balochistan’s second largest city. Over here, 90% of people don’t accept that coronavirus could even affect them. Some say that yes, coronavirus exists on a world level but not in our city. There’s no case yet in our city.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Yes, okay. Is there anything being done there to increase social distancing or sanitation?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Government tries it but the public gives no response. Government is tired.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok. What things did the government try to do?
|
||||
|
||||
N: To make shutdown better, the government has tried a lot. Often shops have circles for distance, there’s printed material and wall chalking for awareness
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Meaning of wall chalking?
|
||||
|
||||
N: In villages, spreading awareness about precautionary measures against coronavirus
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Do shops and people follow this? And how strict is the government / police on this? Ok. How do you know about the villages?
|
||||
|
||||
N: \[They are strict\] to a large extent. I myself live in a village.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Oh. You live in a village?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: So people are still following the rules?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Right now, before 5 pm there’s complete freedom. After 5 pm, the government forces all shops to close. For the rest of the village, there’s complete freedom. Because over here, there’s no patient yet so people don’t take it that seriously
|
||||
|
||||
Q: In people’s opinion, should there be more freedom? Before 5 PM all shops are open and after 5 PM all shops are closed?
|
||||
|
||||
N: People say that no one has been affected by it yet so why should there be such strictness. Yes.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: In the shops, are people close together or are they maintaining social distance because of the circles?
|
||||
|
||||
N: They are close together
|
||||
|
||||
Q: But they can’t go to shops after 5 pm? But they can meet their friends outside?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes. Only shops are closed. Otherwise, they can meet.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Over the previous weeks, did you have any interaction with the medical system?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes I went \[to a hospital\]. CMH. 4 times in a week
|
||||
|
||||
Q: For what reason, if you want to say?
|
||||
|
||||
N: My nephew was ill. I took him there.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What do you think about the hospitals there?
|
||||
|
||||
N: You must already know about CMH. 100 (emoji) was ok.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What type of illness \[about the nephew\]
|
||||
|
||||
N: very severe fever. For many years. Even last year, and this year. So I took him for a check up.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Is he fine now?
|
||||
|
||||
N: yes, yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: ok
|
||||
|
||||
N: yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Are tests being conducted there for coronavirus in hospitals?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Sorry! I don’t know. Maybe they are happening but not confirmed
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: So if someone is afraid that they have the virus, what would they do?
|
||||
|
||||
N: For them, there are preparations done by hospitals. They’ll be isolated. Then a test will be done. Government has made isolation wards. In civil hospital
|
||||
|
||||
Q: In your opinion, hospitals / government are able to handle the isolation well?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes. Because if in the houses, someone gets the virus, then they can’t provide better isolation. So in my opinion, the hospital will be better.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: In your opinion, do the hospitals have enough masks / tests etc to deal with this situation?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Okay. In your area, did you hear of any unexplained sickness or death? Do you know of anyone who might have covid?
|
||||
|
||||
N: No. No deaths in the city. I don’t know anyone personally who has the virus.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok. Are mosques open there?
|
||||
|
||||
N: 100 (emoji)
|
||||
|
||||
Q: If they are open, how often do people go?
|
||||
|
||||
N: it’s pretty obvious 5 times \[a day\]
|
||||
|
||||
Q: In your opinion, should they remain open?
|
||||
|
||||
N: In my opinion, not in the city. But they should definitely be open in the villages. Because in villages, no one comes from outside. In the city, people come from different areas
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok. No one comes from outside to your village?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Very few people come from outside the village
|
||||
|
||||
Q: But visitors from outside do come?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok. In one mosque, at one time (like for Friday prayers), how many people gather?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Other than Friday prayer, on average 25-30 people. For Friday prayers, more than 150
|
||||
|
||||
Q: And this is without distancing?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What do people there think about how to treat covid cases?
|
||||
|
||||
N: There’s no treatment
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What do people think about how to deal with covid cases? Are there any superstitions about this?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Sorry I don’t know about this, what people think.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok, no problem. What do you think about it?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Isolate them, provide a clean environment, give them the medicine etc, with time it will get better
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok. Do people there wear masks? Are there any laws about this?
|
||||
|
||||
N: In government offices, people wear masks. Otherwise, 80% of public doesn’t
|
||||
|
||||
Q: People can buy masks in shops?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes, they are available in pharmacies
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Do people make masks at home? Have you yourself made / worn a mask?
|
||||
|
||||
N: \[about making masks at home\] there was no need
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok
|
||||
|
||||
N: I wear a mask. Haven’t made it myself.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Can people buy masks at a reasonable price at the pharmacy?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Have people’s jobs been affected because of shutdowns due to the virus?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Labourers have been affected
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What do they do now?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Now, they go to work. Before, people helped them.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: In the city? But in your opinion, people have been largely unaffected financially?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What do you think about the Baloch nationalists?
|
||||
|
||||
N: I don’t know about this. In our area, there’s no such thing. Only pashtuns live here.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok. In your opinion, how well is Pakistani government handling the covid situation?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes, they’re doing well. To a large extent.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: The Balochistan government as well?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Yes
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What do you think about the quality of CMH hospital?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Very satisfied
|
||||
|
||||
Q: If the virus spread a lot more, do you think the government would still be able to handle it well?
|
||||
|
||||
N: yes, when the public supports the government
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Ok. What do you think the chances are of you or your close relatives getting coronavirus this year?
|
||||
|
||||
N: Very little. This is my opinion but Allah knows best. I’m not giving a governmental report, all of this is just my opinion
|
||||
|
||||
Q: of course
|
||||
|
||||
N: I can be 100% wrong or 100% correct so it is not official
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Okay. Do you have any other thoughts on the topic?
|
||||
|
||||
N: No, this was it
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Okay. Thank you so much for taking the time to answer these questions. Thanks!
|
||||
|
||||
N: No problem. Thank Usman bhai \[friend/bro of Usman\]
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Bye
|
||||
|
||||
N: Bye
|
||||
|
||||
## Interview 2.
|
||||
|
||||
The person interviewed is the Makran division head for a non-profit that operates nationally, providing supplies of food all over the country to people whose livelihoods have been affected due to COVID-19. He lives in Turbat, Makran in Balochistan. The interview was carried out on the 18th of May of 2020.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What type of area do you live in? Is it a city or a village?
|
||||
|
||||
M: I live in a city but otherwise my connection is to the rural area Dasht.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: In your area, how many people live in one house?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Minimum five and many have a joint family system as well. From 10-12 people.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What do people there think of coronavirus? Do they worry about it a lot or not so much? What do you yourself think about it?
|
||||
|
||||
M: People are very worried about this virus. People's daily lives are greatly affected. Shops and markets are closed. The economic condition of the people is ruined. The government has turned lockdown into smart lockdown. But it is not being implemented by the public. Because the government is not helping the people. In Balochistan, there is no test facility in any city except Quetta. So far some cases have been reported in Makran, Gwadar and Panjgur. No cases have been reported in Turbat division.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Is there anything being done there to increase social distancing and sanitation?
|
||||
|
||||
M: No.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Are markets open? How crowded are they? Where do people buy food?
|
||||
|
||||
M: The shops are mostly all open here. People do not maintain distancing in the market.
|
||||
|
||||
The shops are closed now after 5 o'clock so there is a lot of crowding before
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Have you visited a hospital in the past few weeks or have any interaction with the medical system or with doctors?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Yes, I went to the hospital. I am in constant contact with doctors every day.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What is your opinion of the healthcare system? Are there tests happening in your area for covid?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Doctors aren’t doing their duty in government hospitals but private clinics are quite crowded.
|
||||
|
||||
No, there is no test laboratory or facility.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: How often do people get fevers? When was the last time you or a friend had a fever? Do you know the reason for that fever?
|
||||
|
||||
M: I had a fever before Ramadan and recovered in a couple of days. I only took Panadol
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Have you heard of any unexplained illnesses or deaths in your area? Do you know of anyone who you think might have covid-19?
|
||||
|
||||
M: No, this has not happened in our area yet. There isn’t any facility for testing so who knows, someone might have coronavirus.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Are mosques open there? What do people think about whether the mosques should be open? If the government tries to close mosques, what do you think will happen?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Mosques were closed in the beginning but are now open. People here are against closing mosques
|
||||
|
||||
Q: At one time, how many people gather in a mosque?
|
||||
|
||||
M: On Fridays the mosques are packed and the rest of the time there are are two to four rows
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Is there any local knowledge about how to deal with covid cases? Are there any superstitions about this?
|
||||
|
||||
M: People are self-quarantining. People who are less educated are more worried about this virus. However, educated people are not bothered by this, they just follow the instructions of the doctors
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Do people wear masks there? Are there any laws for this? Are people making masks at home? Have you yourself made or worn a mask?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Yes, they do. I wear masks too. People have made their own masks as well. I haven't made my own. The Balochistan government has prohibited people from going out without wearing a mask.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Are the people who go out without a mask fined or punished in some way?
|
||||
|
||||
M: No, this doesn’t happen.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Are people meeting with their friends outside? Or having iftar at home with their friends? Do you think people will gather with their relatives and friends during Eid? By your estimate, what percentage of people wear masks outside?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Yes, definitely we meet our friends every day. Iftar gatherings have also been happening. I have been breaking my fast with a friend every day since Ramadan started. The situation here is that people will gather \[for Eid\]. 20% of people \[wear masks\]. There have been many funerals during this time and hundreds of people have attended. Due to corona, religious tendencies have increased. People have started going to mosques more.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Why so many funerals? Are people falling more ill during this time?
|
||||
|
||||
M: No, because of old age. This is a picture of an iftar today, only two people are wearing masks. \[Attached was a photo of 13 men sitting close together, two wearing masks but these weren’t covering their mouth or nose so that they could talk\]
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What type of sickness in old age, if you know?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Diabetes, cancer, kidney, liver etc. Tuberculosis. There are no health facilities in Makran at all. Karachi is beyond the reach of the people
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Do any of them require a ventilator?
|
||||
|
||||
M: They do but ventilators are not available in Makran. If necessary, doctors refer the patient to Karachi. Due to lack of facilities, most patients die on the way. Makran does not yet have a good ambulance service, either provided by government or private service.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Is the number of deaths now greater than, less than or the same as before?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Same as before, there has been no significant increase or decrease in our areas.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Have people’s jobs been affected due to the virus and the lockdowns?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Government jobs have not been affected, but labourers and daily wagers are worried. People who work in shops are worried. Government employees are living in luxury, they are getting paid and as all the offices are closed, they are on holiday.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What are the people who’ve lost their jobs doing now?
|
||||
|
||||
M: This has rarely happened in our area. Those who are unemployed now are sitting at home.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: What is your opinion of Baloch nationalists and the army in the area due to the nationalists?
|
||||
|
||||
M: The Pakistan army is present everywhere in Balochistan. Things were very bad a couple years ago, now thank God they are very good. As FC (Frontier Corps) or as something else, but the army is everywhere. The influence of the Baloch Nationalists has diminished. The situation is bad everywhere though, such events keep happening.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Do you think the situation with the baloch nationalists is going to affect how the epidemic plays out?
|
||||
|
||||
M: No that won’t happen.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: In your opinion, how well is the Pakistani government handling the covid situation? What about the Balochistan government?
|
||||
|
||||
M: Both are not handling it well. Turbat is the second largest city in Balochistan yet there is no testing facility or other arrangements provided by the government. Leave aside ventilators, there aren’t even testing kits.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: How likely do you think it is you or your close relatives will get the coronavirus this year?
|
||||
|
||||
M: I think there is very little chance of that because this has not happened so far here so it isn’t likely.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Do you have any other thoughts on this you’d like to share?
|
||||
|
||||
M: \[A prayer against the virus\]
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Thank you so much for taking the time to answer all of this :)
|
||||
|
||||
M: Thank you. We’re willing to help any time with any work or information you require.
|
||||
|
||||
Q: Thank you so much. Bye.
|
||||
|
||||
M: Bye.
|
||||
|
||||
M: Hi. I forgot to mention one thing yesterday. There is a high incidence of intermarriage here, which is why thalassemia is so common. It is also a cause of death in young children. There is no center or facility for thalassemia. These children need blood every fortnight or every month. Because there is no blood bank here, this is also the cause of their death.
|
||||
|
||||
Follow-up question later: Are people moving between cities and cities to the villages, and if so, is it minimal or more or less the same as always?
|
||||
|
||||
Answer: Yes, people are moving from one city to another but movement between cities is less than before. Movement between villages is same as before. The reduction in movement to cities is because of public transport being shut down.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
<p><section id="isso-thread">
|
||||
<noscript>Javascript needs to be activated to view comments.</noscript>
|
||||
</section></p>
|
||||
|
||||
Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 282 KiB |
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,169 @@
|
|||
<h2>Highlights</h2>
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>PredictIt nears its <a href="https://insightprediction.com/m/18505/will-predictit-survive" target="_blank" rel="noopener">probable demise</a></li>
|
||||
<li>American Civics Exchange offers <a href="https://otc.amciv.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">political betting</a> to Americans using weird legal loophole</li>
|
||||
<li>Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">arrested for $100M+ theft</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106173959/https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</li>
|
||||
<li>Forecasting Research Institute <a href="https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/kEd5qWwg8pZjWAeFS/announcing-the-forecasting-research-institute-we-re-hiring" target="_blank" rel="noopener">launches publicly</a></li>
|
||||
<li>Blogpost <a href="https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suggests that GiveWell use uncertainty</a>, wins $20k</li>
|
||||
<li>Contrarian <a href="https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">offers $500k bet</a>, then chickens out</li>
|
||||
<li>Walter Frick writes a <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">resource to introduce journalists to prediction markets</a></li>
|
||||
<li>Yearly feedback form</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<h2>Index</h2>
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>Prediction Markets and Forecasting Platforms</li>
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>PredictIt</li>
|
||||
<li>American Civics Exchange</li>
|
||||
<li>Polymarket</li>
|
||||
<li>Insight Prediction</li>
|
||||
<li>Kalshi</li>
|
||||
<li>INFER</li>
|
||||
<li>Metaculus</li>
|
||||
<li>Manifold</li>
|
||||
<li>Odds and Ends</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<li>Opportunities</li>
|
||||
<li>Research</li>
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>Shortform</li>
|
||||
<li>Longform</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<li>In the News</li>
|
||||
<li>Extra: The tax-evaded Nazi money which influences German politics and US/NATO relationships has opened a new forecasting platform.</li>
|
||||
<li>Yearly housekeeping</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<p>Browse past newsletters <a href="https://forecasting.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105001738/https://forecasting.substack.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), or view this newsletter on the EA forum here. If you have a content suggestion or want to reach out, you can leave a comment or find me on <a href="https://twitter.com/NunoSempere" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Twitter</a>.</p>
|
||||
<h2>Prediction Markets and Forecasting Platforms</h2>
|
||||
<h3>PredictIt</h3>
|
||||
<p>Racing against the clock, PredictIt is trying to get permission from the CFTC to continue existing. From PredictIt’s newsletter:</p>
|
||||
<p>As you may know, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) decided in August to revoke the authorization that allowed PredictIt to operate <a href="https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements" target="_blank" rel="noopener">effective Feb. 15, 2023</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221223063826/https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) (<a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22" target="_blank" rel="noopener">original CFTC source</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221217222553/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>)). More than a dozen of your fellow PredictIt traders, as well as academic data users and PredictIt’s parent company Aristotle, have challenged this decision in federal court with the goal of keeping election markets open and operating past the CFTC’s arbitrary Feb. 15, 2023, deadline.</p>
|
||||
<p>Given the time-sensitive nature of this fight, the <a href="https://www.casino.org/news/predictit-to-seek-cftc-injunction-in-appeals-court-after-lower-court-fails-to-act/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">plaintiffs filed a motion</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230103080014/https://www.casino.org/news/predictit-to-seek-cftc-injunction-in-appeals-court-after-lower-court-fails-to-act/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) last week to move the case to the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which is the quickest path towards attaining justice for our traders and academic partners. We understand that legal battles do not generally make for exhilarating newsletter content, but as valued members of our community, we want you to know that we’re fighting on every available battlefield for the future of PredictIt and political prediction markets.</p>
|
||||
<p>To that end, Aristotle, has also applied to the CFTC for permission to operate a Designated Contract Market (DCM), which will offer event contracts that include certain political outcomes. We’re well along in that process and hope to have approval in the coming months.</p>
|
||||
<p>If approved, PredictIt Exchange will list many of the same contracts that you love: polling averages, nominations, confirmations and legislative outcomes, among other topics.</p>
|
||||
<p>This next step toward becoming a regulated entity has been a long-time goal of the PredictIt team. We’ll be in touch soon with more information about how to sign up for PredictIt Exchange and other exciting developments in the works for next year. Stay tuned!</p>
|
||||
<h3>American Civics Exchange</h3>
|
||||
<p>The newly created American Civics Exchange is offering <a href="https://otc.amciv.com/dashboard" target="_blank" rel="noopener">over-the-counter betting</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221122165636/https://otc.amciv.com/dashboard" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) on political events.</p>
|
||||
<p>I'm not clear on how <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-counter_%28finance%29" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this is legal</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106180304/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-counter_%28finance%29" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), but readers might consult their "What is ACE otc's regulatory framework?" section in their <a href="https://otc.amciv.com/page/faq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FAQ</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105001904/https://otc.amciv.com/page/faq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). The man behind the thing is <a href="https://twitter.com/FlipPidot" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Filip Pidot</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106192455/https://twitter.com/FlipPidot" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), who previously ran the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@OldBullTV/videos" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Old Bull TV</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002037/https://www.youtube.com/@OldBullTV/videos" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) youtube channel, and is generally considered a respectable community member.</p>
|
||||
<h3>Polymarket</h3>
|
||||
<p>Polymarket deploys an <a href="https://github.com/Polymarket/uma-ctf-adapter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">adapter</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221013234314/https://github.com/Polymarket/uma-ctf-adapter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) between its Keynesian beauty contest resolution mechanism, <a href="https://umaproject.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UMA</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230104180400/https://umaproject.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), and actual resolutions. There is an "emergencyResolve" feature, which judging by the name could be used to override or bypass the UMA resolution. This is marginally concerning, because it could be used to siphon money away from markets, by betting on the less likely outcome and then resolving to it.</p>
|
||||
<p>Ultimately, I don't think this matters very much, because if Polymarket was compromised, users' wallets could probably be drained through some change in the webpage. Still, this downgrades UMA from its previous status as a source of truth to merely a convenient resolution mechanism,</p>
|
||||
<h3>Insight Prediction</h3>
|
||||
<p>Insight Prediction <a href="https://twitter.com/Insight_Predict/status/1587428761456193536" target="_blank" rel="noopener">introduced</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105001841/https://twitter.com/Insight_Predict/status/1587428761456193536" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) some innovations around "sudden death markets". It's difficult to do market-making for markets about discrete events, because if the event happens, traders will quickly make bets and rake in profit before the market-maker notices. And so:</p>
|
||||
<p>…what we've implemented is the ability to have markets where we return all bets after a particular event has transpired. Bets placed before the event will be honored, while bets placed after will be returned. This of course requires bets in the market to be locked (72 hours)</p>
|
||||
<p>You can see this functionality in this market: <a href="https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-by-august-2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Will Elon Musk Father Another Child Before August 2023?</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105001846/https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-by-august-2023" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) market.</p>
|
||||
<h3>Kalshi</h3>
|
||||
<p>Kalshi <a href="https://kalshi.com/blog/apiv2-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">updates their API</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106192534/https://kalshi.com/blog/apiv2-is-here/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) and, separately, gets <a href="https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33696486" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lampooned in Hacker News</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174123/https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33696486" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>):</p>
|
||||
<p>That's neat but how does one hedge a $800k loan with a max position of $25k? Idea seems spurious. The difference is substantially higher. Compare a pre-hike 2.8% with a present 6.8%. Your $25k hedge is going to be pointless.</p>
|
||||
<p>Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated.</p>
|
||||
<p>Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations of the no-action letter.</p>
|
||||
<p>This is a rotten way to do business and shame on YC for being involved in it.</p>
|
||||
<h3>INFER</h3>
|
||||
<p>INFER has a few <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quarterly reports</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002053/https://www.infer-pub.com/archive" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) on their forecasts on Synthetic Biology, AI and Microelectronics. It also has a <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/future-bowl-tournament" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$5.25k</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002109/https://www.infer-pub.com/future-bowl-tournament" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) tournament.</p>
|
||||
<p>When Metaculus got a <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/metaculus-platform-development/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$5.5M grant</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002123/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/metaculus-platform-development/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) earlier this year, I could mostly see this reverberating, them hiring more people, a few teams being created, people I was keeping tabs on getting hired, more forecasting contests happening, and so on. You know, $5M is a small fortune, and I try to listen to the pulse of these things. Manifold Markets got built on top of $1M.</p>
|
||||
<p>So for a while now, it has been very unclear to me where the <a href="https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/applied-research-laboratory-for-intelligence-and-security-forecasting-platforms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$8M that INFER's parent organization got from Open Philanthropy</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002137/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/applied-research-laboratory-for-intelligence-and-security-forecasting-platforms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) was going. Things just weren't very visibly different from what I would expect to see if that grant hadn't really happened. INFER's forecasting rewards continued to be pretty small.</p>
|
||||
<p>Taking a page from <a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Andrew Gelman</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230101023816/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), who is extremely meek when pointing these kinds of issues out, there could be many explanations. For example, it's possible that it does add up, that infrastructure and putting these kinds of reports out does take that much money. Or that they are spending the money slowly and sustainably for the long term. Or that the University of Maryland administration takes a really large chunk of funds. I am also assuming that the $8M in two years for two platforms doesn't correspond to something in the very rough neighbourhood of $2M per year per platform, but it could be that that's not the case. It's also possible that the INFER forecasting sphere and the sphere that I pay the most attention to don't overlap as much, which could be a positive. Still, the difference between the funds they receive and the impact that I perceive as for a while a small mystery to me.</p>
|
||||
<p>Now, in its yearly review, INFER <a href="https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/season-review-2022" target="_blank" rel="noopener">mentions</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221222200606/https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/season-review-2022" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) working on "an internal U.S. Government-wide site" for 2023. That does seem like it could absorb large amounts of funds. Still, personally, I'd love to see a bill of how much was spent where.</p>
|
||||
<h3>Metaculus</h3>
|
||||
<p>Metaculus held a <a href="https://scribe.froth.zone/announcing-metaculuss-million-predictions-hackathon-91c2dfa3f39" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Million Predictions Hackathon</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174232/https://scribe.froth.zone/announcing-metaculuss-million-predictions-hackathon-91c2dfa3f39" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), and posted their <a href="https://scribe.froth.zone/metaculus-year-in-review-2022-c92ff9cd87a0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">year in review</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174302/https://scribe.froth.zone/metaculus-year-in-review-2022-c92ff9cd87a0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). They are also hosting a <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">beginner tournament</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221120092344/https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), which seems like a neat way of introduction to forecasting.</p>
|
||||
<h3>Manifold</h3>
|
||||
<p>Vincent Luczkow <a href="https://github.com/vluzko/manifoldpy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">analyzes</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221228201434/https://github.com/vluzko/manifoldpy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) whether Manifold Markets are well calibrated, and finds that they are:</p>
|
||||
<p>A Manifold Community member analyzed the performance of various prediction platforms on the <a href="https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">US elections</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221215030200/https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). I find that these analyses don't really take into account that political outcomes are massively correlated. And so in years in which Democrats do well, platforms with a Democratic bias will do well, and vice-versa. Still, this isn't totally uninformative.</p>
|
||||
<p>Manifold adds swipe functionality to bet. I think this is pure evil genius, in the sense of being a very addictive skinner box, and I'm very impressed. You can try it <a href="https://manifold.markets/swipe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221031121657/https://manifold.markets/swipe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Manifold now has <a href="https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.markets.manifoldhttps://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.markets.manifold&pli=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Android</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174337/https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.markets.manifoldhttps://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.markets.manifold&pli=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) and <a href="https://apps.apple.com/us/app/manifold-markets/id6444136749" target="_blank" rel="noopener">iOS</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221208084400/https://apps.apple.com/us/app/manifold-markets/id6444136749" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) apps.</p>
|
||||
<h3>Odds and ends</h3>
|
||||
<p>The FTX Foundation, a major founder of innovative forecasting projects, exists no longer after the downfall of FTX. More on this in the next edition of this newsletter.</p>
|
||||
<p>The Effective Altruism Forum has started a <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/azL6uPcbCqBfJ37TJ/announcing-a-subforum-for-forecasting-and-estimation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">subforum for forecasting and estimation</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230104122631/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/azL6uPcbCqBfJ37TJ/announcing-a-subforum-for-forecasting-and-estimation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). Right now it mostly has some seed discussions started by employees of the Center for Effective Altruism. </p>
|
||||
<p>I don't recommend that subforum for general forecasting discussion because I think that the EA Forum has too onerous "be nice" rules, whereas I tend to most like spaces that are maximally uncensorious and are willing to sacrifice other values in the pursuit of accuracy. For instance, Discord spaces from Metaculus, Polymarket & others have tended to be extremely unmoderated. </p>
|
||||
<p>Some comments from Good Judgment Open from the last long while:</p>
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1545611" target="_blank" rel="noopener">julick</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174359/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1545611" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) summarizes some <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/war-and-the-fate-of-regimes-a-comparative-analysis/88056B8C9BE0413DB349086653B58520" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Cambridge research on regime change</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20220914032710/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/war-and-the-fate-of-regimes-a-comparative-analysis/88056B8C9BE0413DB349086653B58520" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) and points out that "For regimes that initiated wars and lost them the regime change by violence within 3 years is 60-80%. For an initiator that won the probability is 20-35%."</li>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554036" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anneinak</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174419/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554036" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) gives a 15% to Twitter crashing by December 2023, and points to <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554036" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this article</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174419/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554036" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>): "If the [EU] Commission elects to designate Twitter a VLOP [Very Large Online Platform] under the DSA [Digital Services Act] the business will face an accelerated compliance timetable with oversight kicking in in February next year — rather than in February 2024 — and with a tougher set of requirements to assess and mitigate risks on its platform."</li>
|
||||
<li>Some <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2659-between-9-december-2022-and-9-june-2023-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device" target="_blank" rel="noopener">interesting discussion</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174450/https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2659-between-9-december-2022-and-9-june-2023-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) on whether North Korea will detonate a nuclear device, which includes and would most likely be a nuclear test.</li>
|
||||
<li>Forecaster <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1568206" target="_blank" rel="noopener">belikewater</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174513/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1568206" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) does a nice, textbook base rate calculation to conclude that the current Italian Prime Minister, Meloni, will probably not (10%) stop being PM by October 2023.</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<p>A decentralized sports prediction market has gotten <a href="https://www.theblock.co/post/194496/susquehanna-bets-on-decentralized-sports-prediction-market-frontrunner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">circa $5M</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174536/https://www.theblock.co/post/194496/susquehanna-bets-on-decentralized-sports-prediction-market-frontrunner" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) in <a href="https://techfundingnews.com/frontrunner-secures-4-75m-to-create-decentralised-sports-prediction-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">funding</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221224043943/https://techfundingnews.com/frontrunner-secures-4-75m-to-create-decentralised-sports-prediction-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Hypermind continues to host its <a href="https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=RUSSANCT1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Russia Punished</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174607/https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=RUSSANCT1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) series of questions.</p>
|
||||
<p>Scott Alexander wrote a <a href="https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prediction Market FAQ</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174747/https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) and is hosting a <a href="https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prediction contest</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230103085602/https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) with a few days left to enter. If someone calculates expected reward over expected time, please post it as a comment.</p>
|
||||
<p>Web3 betting platform <a href="https://newsbtc.com/news/company/dexsport-loses-400000-in-hack-user-funds-remain-unaffected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">loses $0.4M in hack</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221211201410/https://newsbtc.com/news/company/dexsport-loses-400000-in-hack-user-funds-remain-unaffected/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://againsttheodds.es/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Against the Odds</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105125805/https://againsttheodds.es/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) is a platform available to Spaniards which offers the opportunity to earn around $500/month through "crossed bets", i.e., betting one thing in one prediction market and the opposite in another, in order to make a guaranteed profit. The service itself seems legit and comes recommended by a friend. But interested Spaniards should calculate whether this is worth it, e.g,. earning 7€ for 5 mins of work is 84€/hour, and in practice something like 50€/hour including time to set up things.</p>
|
||||
<p>Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg was both despised and admired after pulling off a <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/15/114m-mango-markets-exploiter-outs-himself-returns-most-of-the-money/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$114M heist</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221223162406/https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/15/114m-mango-markets-exploiter-outs-himself-returns-most-of-the-money/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) on a prediction platform. Now, he has been <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">arrested in Puerto Rico</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106173959/https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), and will be facing trial. He remains 47th on the Metaculus leaderboard, as can be seen on <a href="https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his profile</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221225212754/https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<h2>Opportunities</h2>
|
||||
<p>The <a href="https://forecastingresearch.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forecasting Research Institute</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221222190557/https://forecastingresearch.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) is a new think tank which has some senior research talent. Their <a href="https://forecastingresearch.org/research" target="_blank" rel="noopener">research page</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221214224323/https://forecastingresearch.org/research" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) should give readers a good taste of what they are about; my impression is that they have a strong academic component and will be aiming to be a bit more institutional than other efforts in the space. I hesitate to mention this, but Phil Tetlock takes the perhaps somewhat ceremonial or advisory role of President.</p>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/kEd5qWwg8pZjWAeFS/announcing-the-forecasting-research-institute-we-re-hiring" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174029/https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/kEd5qWwg8pZjWAeFS/announcing-the-forecasting-research-institute-we-re-hiring" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) is a post on the EA forum introducing them. They are currently <a href="https://forecastingresearch.org/apply" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hiring</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221222190529/https://forecastingresearch.org/apply" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) for research analyst ($70k/year), data analyst ($70k), content editor ($60k) and research assistant ($15/hour) positions.</p>
|
||||
<p>Other people who are hiring are</p>
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://apply.workable.com/metaculus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Metaculus</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221209055644/https://apply.workable.com/metaculus/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>)</li>
|
||||
<li><a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/01/06/blue-rose-research-is-hiring/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Blue Rose research</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230106074310/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/01/06/blue-rose-research-is-hiring/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>)</li>
|
||||
<li>Insight Prediction <a href="https://www.econjobrumors.com/topic/insight-prediction-is-hiring" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was hiring</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174830/https://www.econjobrumors.com/topic/insight-prediction-is-hiring" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), and maybe still is</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<h2>Writeups</h2>
|
||||
<h3>Shortform</h3>
|
||||
<p>The US 2022 congressional elections happened. Some relevant pieces on that:</p>
|
||||
<ul>
|
||||
<li>Arpit Gupta looks at the <a href="https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/loss-for-prediction-markets-in-the" target="_blank" rel="noopener">relative performance</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002406/https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/loss-for-prediction-markets-in-the" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) of PredictIt, 538, Manifold Markets and Metaculus in the 2022 US election. He concludes that Metaculus does best. </li>
|
||||
<li>This substack also <a href="https://mikesaintantoine.substack.com/p/scoring-midterm-election-forecasts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">compares PredictIt, 538 and Manifold Markets</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221126214755/https://mikesaintantoine.substack.com/p/scoring-midterm-election-forecasts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</li>
|
||||
<li>In postmortem analysis, FiveThrirtyEight <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-data-processing-error-changed-our-deluxe-forecast/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">finds that a data aggregation error meaningfully changed their forecasts</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221201012643/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-data-processing-error-changed-our-deluxe-forecast/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</li>
|
||||
<li>Tanae Rao collects <a href="https://github.com/tanaerao/polymarket-midterms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">all trades on Polymarket for the 2022 US midterm elections</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221120230038/https://github.com/tanaerao/polymarket-midterms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</li>
|
||||
</ul>
|
||||
<p>With regard to comparisons between platforms, I don’t think that those analyses are completely uninformative. But I'd be hesitant to draw conclusions from one electoral season, because election outcomes are correlated. So for instance it could be that PredictIt is biased in favour of Republicans, Metaculus is biased in favour of Democrats, and Democrats did better this time. </p>
|
||||
<p>In <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ytHCpLbT6A4gxqH8s/tracking-the-money-flows-in-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tracking the money flows in forecasting</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002212/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ytHCpLbT6A4gxqH8s/tracking-the-money-flows-in-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), I post some rough monetary valuation estimates for a large number of forecasting or prediction market organizations. The most out-of-place platform there is INFER, as reviewed above.</p>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://csustan.csustan.edu/~tom/Lecture-Notes/Non-Ergodic/Non-Ergodic-Short/Non-Ergodic-Short.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This online presentation</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221115165242/https://csustan.csustan.edu/~tom/Lecture-Notes/Non-Ergodic/Non-Ergodic-Short/Non-Ergodic-Short.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) gives a few examples of systems whose expected value is far apart from the most likely value. h/t <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamMarblestone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Adam Marblestone</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221206194732/https://twitter.com/AdamMarblestone" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Gelman <a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/12/history-of-time-series-forecasting-competitions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">points to a history of forecasting competitions</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221127082244/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/12/history-of-time-series-forecasting-competitions/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Jaime Sevilla posts <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ozPL3mLGShqvjhiaG/some-research-ideas-in-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Some research ideas in forecasting</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230105002420/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ozPL3mLGShqvjhiaG/some-research-ideas-in-forecasting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>The great Robin Hanson proposes <a href="https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/11/clean-politician-bonds.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">clean politician bonds</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221224124910/https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/11/clean-politician-bonds.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>):</p>
|
||||
<p>Assume you will vote for 1 of 2 candidates for US Mayor, Governor, or House of Repr. Only 1 has posted $1M bond payable to anyone who proves their misbehavior re lies, bribes, or other cheating. On average, what is chance you vote for this candidate?</p>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://breakingthemarket.com/the-most-misunderstood-force-in-the-universe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This brief blogpost</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221117115030/https://breakingthemarket.com/the-most-misunderstood-force-in-the-universe/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) looks at when the geometric average of returns is a misleading indicator.</p>
|
||||
<p>Alvaro de Menard writes <a href="https://fantasticanachronism.com/2022/11/21/forecasting-forecasting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Forecasting Forecasting</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221215042936/https://fantasticanachronism.com/2022/11/21/forecasting-forecasting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), a short article looking at his perspective on the future of forecasting. Curiously, the article is fairly obsequious towards my forecasting group, Samotsvety.</p>
|
||||
<p>There is an AI risk tournament whose results should be coming up soon that had superforecasters look at the chance of existential risk tournament due to AI. Participant Ege Erdil <a href="https://twitter.com/EgeErdil2/status/1594723484860665858" target="_blank" rel="noopener">writes</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106175129/https://twitter.com/EgeErdil2/status/1594723484860665858" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>):</p>
|
||||
<p>i was one of the people who participated in the AI forecasting thing you cite here, and the experience was unfortunately very bad due to various reasons</p>
|
||||
<p>i would strongly push back on the idea that the people selected were in any sense "top forecasters"</p>
|
||||
<p>Lao Mein writes <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AZHHEPYWvTovvtikz/human-level-diplomacy-was-my-fire-alarm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Human-level Diplomacy was my fire alarm</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221202162217/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AZHHEPYWvTovvtikz/human-level-diplomacy-was-my-fire-alarm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Nikos Bosse is working on a <a href="https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H7xWzvwvkyywDAEkL/creating-a-database-for-base-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">database of baserates</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221223122549/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H7xWzvwvkyywDAEkL/creating-a-database-for-base-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>A newsletter from Cultivate Labs highlights an article on <a href="https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/crowd-forecasting-and-effective-altruism" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Crowd Forecasting and Effective Altruism</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221223123956/https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/crowd-forecasting-and-effective-altruism" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Ben West looks at the <a href="https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/5mghcxCabxuaK4WTs/ycombinator-fraud-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rate of fraud in YCombinator startups</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106175234/https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/5mghcxCabxuaK4WTs/ycombinator-fraud-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), and finds that "1-2% of $100M+ YCombinator-backed companies have faced serious allegations of fraud".</p>
|
||||
<p>This <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">old Washington Post article</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20211005190327/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) shows the annual risk of breakup for married and unmarried couples:</p>
|
||||
<p>Cultivate Labs' CEO <a href="https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/2022-in-the-rearview" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reviews</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221223123956/https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/2022-in-the-rearview" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) his company's activities in 2022. In particular:</p>
|
||||
<p>The INFER project run by UMD’s ARLIS will be announcing a co-sponsored forecasting tournament with a significant player in the AI space next month, and will also be formally launching a U.S. Government-wide forecasting platform in the spring.</p>
|
||||
<p>The European Commission, an organ of the European Union, has <a href="https://commission.europa.eu/statistics/economic-forecasts-and-trends_en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a page with economic forecasts and trends</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221225144109/https://commission.europa.eu/statistics/economic-forecasts-and-trends_en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). Its economic forecasts are <a href="https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts_en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221227042949/https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts_en" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) and <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/forecasts/index_en.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221101065157/https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/forecasts/index_en.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). It would be a neat research project to track results and check whether they are calibrated. It would also be easy to propose possible improvements: use range forecasts instead of point estimates, and use very liquid markets if you really care.</p>
|
||||
<p>Here are <a href="https://www.visitbritain.org/2023-tourism-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some forecasts on British tourism</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230104165249/https://www.visitbritain.org/2023-tourism-forecast" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Pinterest has a flashy <a href="https://business.pinterest.com/en-us/pinterest-predicts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Pinterest Predicts</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230104173909/https://business.pinterest.com/en-us/pinterest-predicts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) webpage (methodology explained <a href="https://business.pinterest.com/en-us/blog/how-we-forecast-trends-pinterest-predicts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221228013359/https://business.pinterest.com/en-us/blog/how-we-forecast-trends-pinterest-predicts/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>)). Pinterest is used by people to plan stuff, and Pinterest can rely on the law of straight lines to predict that trends that are growing will continue to do so.</p>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://sci-hub.se/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1911-3846.12144" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Does (a measure of) CEO overconfidence affect management forecasting and subsequent earnings management?</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230104231627/https://sci-hub.se/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1911-3846.12144" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). A paper finds that it does.</p>
|
||||
<p>The International Journal of Forecasting has a <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-forecasting/vol/38/issue/4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">special issue</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-forecasting/vol/38/issue/4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) on the M5 competition.</p>
|
||||
<p>The Wall Street Journal reports on how companies use <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/unilever-cfo-struggles-with-forecasting-accuracy-amid-high-inflation-11666904322" target="_blank" rel="noopener">uncertainty and rising energy prices as the justification for increasing price</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105211045/https://www.wsj.com/articles/unilever-cfo-struggles-with-forecasting-accuracy-amid-high-inflation-11666904322" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). You could take them at their word. On the other hand, in Spain, where food prices have risen a whole lot, some people view these as illegitimate cash grabs.</p>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667%2822%2900203-1/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This paper</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002641/https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667%2822%2900203-1/fulltext" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) tries to forecast the burden on the Chinese health system by tracking a large sample of older people.</p>
|
||||
<p>Amazon offers some <a href="https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/29/aws-brings-natural-language-forecasting-queries-to-quicksight-q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">automated ML forecasting</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/29/aws-brings-natural-language-forecasting-queries-to-quicksight-q" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), as does <a href="https://www.oracle.com/sk/artificial-intelligence/forecasting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Oracle</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002702/https://www.oracle.com/sk/artificial-intelligence/forecasting/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<h3>Longform</h3>
|
||||
<p>Jared Leibowich looks at <a href="https://asteriskmag.com/issues/1/modeling-the-end-of-monkeypox" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Modeling the End of Monkeypox</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221122015655/https://asteriskmag.com/issues/1/modeling-the-end-of-monkeypox" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) in a new EA magazine, <a href="https://asteriskmag.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Asterisk</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221212215202/https://asteriskmag.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">This blogpost</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221222172413/https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) won $20k from GiveWell’s "Change our Mind Contest." It looks at how their analyses could be improved by considering the uncertainty in their estimates, and does this at some depth, providing examples and recommendations.</p>
|
||||
<p>Prominent anti-vaccine personality Steve Kirsh offered <a href="https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$500k bets</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221104130431/https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) on the result of a public debate on whether vaccines save lives or not. <a href="https://www.rootclaim.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Rootclaim</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230104080248/https://www.rootclaim.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), a hardcore Bayesian analysis organization, put significant efforts into doing their homework, and <a href="https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-accepts-500000-challenge-on-covid-vaccine-safety-efficacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accepted the bet</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221129133112/https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-accepts-500000-challenge-on-covid-vaccine-safety-efficacy/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). Then Kirsh <a href="https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dishonourably chickened out</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221104130431/https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). A transcript of the negotiations can be found <a href="https://www.skirsch.com/covid/SaarWilf.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221224061743/https://www.skirsch.com/covid/SaarWilf.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>The Swift Centre has a report on <a href="https://www.swiftcentre.org/what-would-be-the-consequences-of-a-nuclear-weapon-being-used-in-the-russia-ukraine-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">what would happen if Russia uses a nuclear weapon</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230104231909/https://www.swiftcentre.org/what-would-be-the-consequences-of-a-nuclear-weapon-being-used-in-the-russia-ukraine-war/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), and is accepting commissions for topics to forecasting. They can be contacted at info@swiftcentre.org.</p>
|
||||
<p>Andrew Gelman <a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/04/new-version-of-posteriordb-a-database-of-posterior-distributions-for-evaluating-bayesian-computation-algorithms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">points</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230104231944/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/04/new-version-of-posteriordb-a-database-of-posterior-distributions-for-evaluating-bayesian-computation-algorithms/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) to <a href="https://github.com/stan-dev/posteriordb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PosteriorDB</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002803/https://github.com/stan-dev/posteriordb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) a database of posteriors.</p>
|
||||
<p>Friend of the newsletter Pratik Chougule recently published <a href="https://brill.com/display/title/63192" target="_blank" rel="noopener">American Universities in the Middle East and U.S. Foreign Policy</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002822/https://brill.com/display/title/63192" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). It seems oddly specific, so I'd instead recommend his older & cheaper <a href="https://www.amazon.com/How-Make-Money-Political-Predictions-ebook/dp/B01KEGLRJ2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">How to Make Money from Political Predictions</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://www.amazon.com/How-Make-Money-Political-Predictions-ebook/dp/B01KEGLRJ2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Michael Story writes about <a href="https://mwstory.substack.com/p/why-i-generally-dont-recommend-internal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">why he generally doesn't recommend internal prediction markets or forecasting tournaments to organisations</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106175846/https://mwstory.substack.com/p/why-i-generally-dont-recommend-internal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<h2>In the News</h2>
|
||||
<p>Walter Frick of <a href="https://nonrival.pub/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nonrival</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221222000715/https://nonrival.pub/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) writes <a href="https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002710/https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), a short piece introducing the concept and resources to journalists.</p>
|
||||
<p>The New York Times has an article (<a href="https://archive.is/FLB4p" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) on "Forecasting the Future of Election Prediction Markets". It has this nice tidbit:</p>
|
||||
<p>PredictIt is something of a hybrid. It is a joint venture. One partner is Victoria University of Wellington, a New Zealand institution. The other is Aristotle, a for-profit American political consulting, compliance, data and software company, whose founder, John Aristotle Phillips, first gained national attention in 1976 as “the A-bomb kid” — a Princeton undergraduate who successfully designed an atomic bomb in a physics class project.</p>
|
||||
<p>I also find it interesting how the NYT article mostly cites academics rather than, e.g., <a href="https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=69699" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sam Altman's comments to the CFTC</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106194025/https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=69699" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) or other <a href="https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentList.aspx?id=7311" target="_blank" rel="noopener">interesting figures</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentList.aspx?id=7311" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Vegas Slots Online has a short article <a href="https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2022/10/31/cftc-ready-to-deny-political-betting-request-from-kalshi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CFTC Ready to Deny Political Betting Request From Kalshi as PredictIt Levies a Lawsuit</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221101221514/https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2022/10/31/cftc-ready-to-deny-political-betting-request-from-kalshi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>El País, a major Spanish newspaper, <a href="https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-11-01/us-election-forecast-republicans-will-control-the-house-the-senate-is-too-close-to-call.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">directly embedded prediction markets</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221208220725/https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-11-01/us-election-forecast-republicans-will-control-the-house-the-senate-is-too-close-to-call.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) in its reporting on the US election.</p>
|
||||
<p>Newsweek, on <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-chances-losing-georgia-re-election-1756671" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Marjorie Taylor Greene's Chances of Losing Georgia Re-election</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230106180010/https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-chances-losing-georgia-re-election-1756671" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Fast Company has a lengthy profile on <a href="https://www.fastcompany.com/90796054/inside-the-wild-subculture-of-traders-who-bet-on-elections" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"the wild subculture of traders who bet on elections"</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221109203752/https://www.fastcompany.com/90796054/inside-the-wild-subculture-of-traders-who-bet-on-elections" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/11/political-betting-elections-forecasting-future/672113/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Atlantic</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221202193500/https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/11/political-betting-elections-forecasting-future/672113/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>): "In the eight years since PredictIt began, online sports gambling went from being outlawed nearly everywhere in the country to a booming industry... In this context, the crackdown on political betting seems somewhat silly... As it turns out, on another site, Insight Prediction, you can bet on PredictIt’s survival. The price of Yes, as of this writing, is 10 cents. Even if the CFTC follows through on its initial decision to shut the site down, it’s hard not to feel that PredictIt has, in some more meaningful way, already won."</p>
|
||||
<p>The Financial Times reviews <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a few of the wackier $1M investments</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221227114544/https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) FTX made, including Manifold Markets.</p>
|
||||
<p>Vox <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/31/23509593/2022-predictions-macron-bolsanaro-covid-inflation-unemployment-climate-change-olympics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reviews</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105091649/https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/31/23509593/2022-predictions-macron-bolsanaro-covid-inflation-unemployment-climate-change-olympics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) its yearly numerical predictions and makes new ones.</p>
|
||||
<h3>Extra: The tax-evaded Nazi money which influences German politics and US/NATO relationships has opened a new forecasting platform.</h3>
|
||||
<p>A smallish company <a href="https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/truth-comes-bertelsmann-admits-nazi-past/160317" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rises</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002941/https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/truth-comes-bertelsmann-admits-nazi-past/160317" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) to become a major German publisher during the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertelsmann#1933_to_1945" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nazi times</a>. After World War II, the now disgraced father gives control of the company to one of his surviving sons. The son manages the business competently, and greatly expands it. In an attempted tax evasion scheme, he divides the company's stock into a small percentage of voting stock and a large percentage of non-voting stock which he gives to a private foundation—I think this is the same trick which failed for the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Foundation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ford Foundation</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003036/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Foundation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Except that this time, the <a href="https://taz.de/!5137745/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trick</a><a href="http://www.bertelsmannkritik.de/index.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">succeeds</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003044/http://www.bertelsmannkritik.de/index.htm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), and after the death of the founder, it allows the family to keep control of assets while minimizing tax exposure. But the logic of the scheme requires that the company give out as few dividends as possible—because they would then be trapped inside the foundation and be difficult to get out. Which is why Bertelsmann has greatly expanded and is now a $30B behemoth which owns <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_House" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Penguin Random House</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221224150408/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_House" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) as one of many items in an absurdly <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Bertelsmann" target="_blank" rel="noopener">long list of assets</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20221031225743/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Bertelsmann" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). Amusingly, they also <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigitte_Mohn#Career" target="_blank" rel="noopener">have the same person</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20221114210641/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigitte_Mohn#Career" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) represent the interest of the family and of the foundation.</p>
|
||||
<p>Cover of the "Heimat, wider Heimat" book, which translates to something like "Motherland, oh Motherland again", published by Bertelsmann. Note dog whistle connotations of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heimat#Modern_history" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Heimat</a>. The author, Gustav Schröer, is one of four authors that I could quickly find that were both published by Bertelsmann and signed the "<a href="https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gel%C3%B6bnis_treuester_Gefolgschaft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Declaration of Allegiance of German Writers</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003103/https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gel%C3%B6bnis_treuester_Gefolgschaft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>)" to Adolf Hitler. The others are Rudolf G. Binding, Otto Flake and Fritz Müller-Partenkirchen. The case of Otto Flake is particularly interesting, since Bertelsmann rescued him from poverty in 1958 by reprinting old books of his.</p>
|
||||
<p>Now, the Bertelsmann foundation has made a small contribution to the forecasting world by starting the <a href="https://www.rangeforecasting.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Range Forecasting</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003141/https://www.rangeforecasting.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) platform, which runs on Cultivate Labs software. Per a recent Cultivate Labs newsletter:</p>
|
||||
<p>Earlier this year, the Bertelsmann Stiftung and Bertelsmann Foundation, in partnership with Cultivate Labs, launched RANGE (Rethinking Assumptions in a New Geostrategic Environment) to forecast on topics critical to the transatlantic relationship. RANGE asks questions related to systemic rivalry with China, climate change, democracy, geopolitics, trade, and economics, all to gain a greater perspective of the transatlantic relationship and to provide analysis and recommendations for U.S. and European policymakers. </p>
|
||||
<p>At a critical time for strengthening global relations, the Stiftung and Foundation aim to engage an international audience in understanding how the transatlantic relationship affects us all, and how it can and should be shaped for the future. Read our recent announcement about the partnership and learn more at rangeforecasting.org. RANGE was featured this week at the 2022 Futures Forum in Münster, Germany, a side event of the G7 minister’s meeting, which brought together American and German experts and rising leaders from civil society, academia, the private sector, and government to discuss transatlantic relations and the intersection of democracy and technology.</p>
|
||||
<p>Earlier today at the Forum, Cultivate Labs CEO Adam Siegel spoke alongside Bertelsmann Foundation Executive Director Irene Braam about RANGE and the ways that crowd forecasting can help us better understand and strengthen transatlantic relations.</p>
|
||||
<p>I do think that this new forecasting platform might be of some use. And I want to express my continued high regard for Cultivate Labs as one of the few platforms that have the proven ability to bring forth a new platform into existence, and maintain it through time. But I guess that reputational laundering of billionaires' money is easier to notice when it is billionaires I don't care much about. And in this particular case, the provenance of the money seems so illegitimate, so rotten, as to be almost comical.</p>
|
||||
<h2>Yearly housekeeping</h2>
|
||||
<p><a href="https://forms.gle/L6kv9GKh5eSf2Kmb6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Here</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230106180045/https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd3eFDhdDReceLrSly4gWmGliHdCX7LNEJygGUEttkLi57M_Q/viewform?usp=send_form#short_url=https://forms.gle/L6kv9GKh5eSf2Kmb6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>) is my yearly feedback form for this newsletter. I care most about readers' thoughts on whether this newsletter should be posted once a month or once every two months, and about freeform thoughts.</p>
|
||||
<p>Also note that as the price I assign to my time rises, I'm becoming more ambivalent about whether to continue publishing this newsletter. If you have strong feelings about whether this newsletter should continue existing, consider becoming a paid subscriber, because a) I consider that a strong signal that I should continue writing this newsletter, b) I like the money, and c) the rate of current paid subscriptions is a pitiful <a href="https://substack.com/going-paid-guide#grow-paid-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">1.6%</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://substack.com/going-paid-guide#grow-paid-list" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>Note to the future: All links are added automatically to the Internet Archive, using this <a href="https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tool</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003212/https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>). "(a)" for archived links was inspired by <a href="https://www.flightfromperfection.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Milan Griffes</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003223/https://www.flightfromperfection.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), <a href="https://www.andzuck.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Andrew Zuckerman</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20220316214638/https://www.andzuck.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>), and <a href="https://guzey.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Alexey Guzey</a> (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20230101090040/https://guzey.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>).</p>
|
||||
<p>> If I had to put my money where my mouth is, my mouth wouldn’t be very busy. I’m just sayin’… — <a href="https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/10/27/you-can-read-for-free-but-comments-cost-money-or-is-it-the-other-way-around/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Anonymous commenter</a> (<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/10/27/you-can-read-for-free-but-comments-cost-money-or-is-it-the-other-way-around/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a</a>)</p>
|
||||
Binary file not shown.
Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 30 KiB |
Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 186 KiB |
Binary file not shown.
|
After Width: | Height: | Size: 296 KiB |
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,295 @@
|
|||
Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
|
||||
================
|
||||
|
||||
## Highlights
|
||||
|
||||
- PredictIt nears its [probable demise](https://insightprediction.com/m/18505/will-predictit-survive)
|
||||
- American Civics Exchange offers [political betting](https://otc.amciv.com/) to Americans using weird legal loophole
|
||||
- Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg [arrested for $100M+ theft](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106173959/https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/)).
|
||||
- Forecasting Research Institute [launches publicly](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/kEd5qWwg8pZjWAeFS/announcing-the-forecasting-research-institute-we-re-hiring)
|
||||
- Blogpost [suggests that GiveWell use uncertainty](https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/), wins $20k
|
||||
- Contrarian [offers $500k bet](https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/), then chickens out
|
||||
- Walter Frick writes a [resource to introduce journalists to prediction markets](https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/)
|
||||
- Yearly feedback form
|
||||
|
||||
## Index
|
||||
|
||||
- Prediction Markets and Forecasting Platforms
|
||||
- PredictIt
|
||||
- American Civics Exchange
|
||||
- Polymarket
|
||||
- Insight Prediction
|
||||
- Kalshi
|
||||
- INFER
|
||||
- Metaculus
|
||||
- Manifold
|
||||
- Odds and Ends
|
||||
- Opportunities
|
||||
- Research
|
||||
- Shortform
|
||||
- Longform
|
||||
- In the News
|
||||
- Extra: The tax-evaded Nazi money which influences German politics and US/NATO relationships has opened a new forecasting platform.
|
||||
- Yearly housekeeping
|
||||
|
||||
Browse past newsletters [here](https://forecasting.substack.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105001738/https://forecasting.substack.com/)), or view this newsletter on the EA forum here. If you have a content suggestion or want to reach out, you can leave a comment or find me on [Twitter](https://twitter.com/NunoSempere).
|
||||
## Prediction Markets and Forecasting Platforms
|
||||
|
||||
### PredictIt
|
||||
|
||||
Racing against the clock, PredictIt is trying to get permission from the CFTC to continue existing. From PredictIt’s newsletter:
|
||||
|
||||
> As you may know, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) decided in August to revoke the authorization that allowed PredictIt to operate [effective Feb. 15, 2023](https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221223063826/https://www.predictit.org/platform-announcements)) ([original CFTC source](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221217222553/https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8567-22))). More than a dozen of your fellow PredictIt traders, as well as academic data users and PredictIt’s parent company Aristotle, have challenged this decision in federal court with the goal of keeping election markets open and operating past the CFTC’s arbitrary Feb. 15, 2023, deadline.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Given the time-sensitive nature of this fight, the [plaintiffs filed a motion](https://www.casino.org/news/predictit-to-seek-cftc-injunction-in-appeals-court-after-lower-court-fails-to-act/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230103080014/https://www.casino.org/news/predictit-to-seek-cftc-injunction-in-appeals-court-after-lower-court-fails-to-act/)) last week to move the case to the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, which is the quickest path towards attaining justice for our traders and academic partners. We understand that legal battles do not generally make for exhilarating newsletter content, but as valued members of our community, we want you to know that we’re fighting on every available battlefield for the future of PredictIt and political prediction markets.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> To that end, Aristotle, has also applied to the CFTC for permission to operate a Designated Contract Market (DCM), which will offer event contracts that include certain political outcomes. We’re well along in that process and hope to have approval in the coming months.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> If approved, PredictIt Exchange will list many of the same contracts that you love: polling averages, nominations, confirmations and legislative outcomes, among other topics.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This next step toward becoming a regulated entity has been a long-time goal of the PredictIt team. We’ll be in touch soon with more information about how to sign up for PredictIt Exchange and other exciting developments in the works for next year. Stay tuned\!
|
||||
|
||||
### American Civics Exchange
|
||||
|
||||
The newly created American Civics Exchange is offering [over-the-counter betting](https://otc.amciv.com/dashboard) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221122165636/https://otc.amciv.com/dashboard)) on political events.
|
||||
|
||||
I'm not clear on how [this is legal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-counter_%28finance%29) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106180304/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Over-the-counter_%28finance%29)), but readers might consult their "What is ACE otc's regulatory framework?" section in their [FAQ](https://otc.amciv.com/page/faq) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105001904/https://otc.amciv.com/page/faq)).
|
||||
|
||||
The man behind the thing is [Filip Pidot](https://twitter.com/FlipPidot) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106192455/https://twitter.com/FlipPidot)), who previously ran the [Old Bull TV](https://www.youtube.com/@OldBullTV/videos) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002037/https://www.youtube.com/@OldBullTV/videos)) youtube channel, and is generally considered a respectable community member.
|
||||
|
||||
### Polymarket
|
||||
|
||||
Polymarket deploys an [adapter](https://github.com/Polymarket/uma-ctf-adapter) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221013234314/https://github.com/Polymarket/uma-ctf-adapter)) between its Keynesian beauty contest resolution mechanism, [UMA](https://umaproject.org/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230104180400/https://umaproject.org/)), and actual resolutions. There is an "emergencyResolve" feature, which judging by the name could be used to override or bypass the UMA resolution. This is marginally concerning, because it could be used to siphon money away from markets, by betting on the less likely outcome and then resolving to it.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Ultimately, I don't think this matters very much, because if Polymarket was compromised, users' wallets could probably be drained through some change in the webpage. Still, this downgrades UMA from its previous status as a source of truth to merely a convenient resolution mechanism,
|
||||
|
||||
### Insight Prediction
|
||||
|
||||
Insight Prediction [introduced](https://twitter.com/Insight_Predict/status/1587428761456193536) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105001841/https://twitter.com/Insight_Predict/status/1587428761456193536)) some innovations around "sudden death markets". It's difficult to do market-making for markets about discrete events, because if the event happens, traders will quickly make bets and rake in profit before the market-maker notices. And so:
|
||||
|
||||
> what we've implemented is the ability to have markets where we return all bets after a particular event has transpired. Bets placed before the event will be honored, while bets placed after will be returned. This of course requires bets in the market to be locked (72 hours)
|
||||
|
||||
You can see this functionality in this market: [Will Elon Musk Father Another Child Before August 2023?](https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-by-august-2023) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105001846/https://insightprediction.com/m/67960/will-elon-musk-father-another-child-by-august-2023)) market.
|
||||
|
||||
### Kalshi
|
||||
|
||||
Kalshi [updates their API](https://kalshi.com/blog/apiv2-is-here/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106192534/https://kalshi.com/blog/apiv2-is-here/)) and, separately, gets [lampooned in Hacker News](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33696486) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174123/https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33696486)):
|
||||
|
||||
> That's neat but how does one hedge a $800k loan with a max position of $25k? Idea seems spurious. The difference is substantially higher. Compare a pre-hike 2.8% with a present 6.8%. Your $25k hedge is going to be pointless.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> > Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Totally untrue. PredictIt was legal and regulated and well-loved for many years, operating with the permission of the CFTC under a no-action letter. Then Kalshi hired former CFTC commissioner Brian Quintenz and soon, PredictIt was suddenly deemed by the CFTC to have committed still-unenumerated violations of the no-action letter.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> This is a rotten way to do business and shame on YC for being involved in it.
|
||||
|
||||
### INFER
|
||||
|
||||
INFER has a few [quarterly reports](https://www.infer-pub.com/archive) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002053/https://www.infer-pub.com/archive)) on their forecasts on Synthetic Biology, AI and Microelectronics. It also has a [$5.25k](https://www.infer-pub.com/future-bowl-tournament) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002109/https://www.infer-pub.com/future-bowl-tournament)) tournament.
|
||||
|
||||
When Metaculus got a [$5.5M grant](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/metaculus-platform-development/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002123/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/metaculus-platform-development/)) earlier this year, I could mostly see this reverberating, them hiring more people, a few teams being created, people I was keeping tabs on getting hired, more forecasting contests happening, and so on. You know, $5M is a small fortune, and I try to listen to the pulse of these things. Manifold Markets got built on top of $1M.
|
||||
|
||||
So for a while now, it has been very unclear to me where the [$8M that INFER's parent organization got from Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/applied-research-laboratory-for-intelligence-and-security-forecasting-platforms/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002137/https://www.openphilanthropy.org/grants/applied-research-laboratory-for-intelligence-and-security-forecasting-platforms/)) was going. Things just weren't very visibly different from what I would expect to see if that grant hadn't really happened. INFER's forecasting rewards continued to be pretty small.
|
||||
|
||||
Taking a page from [Andrew Gelman](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230101023816/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/)), who is extremely meek when pointing these kinds of issues out, there could be many explanations. For example, it's possible that it does add up, that infrastructure and putting these kinds of reports out does take that much money. Or that they are spending the money slowly and sustainably for the long term. Or that the University of Maryland administration takes a really large chunk of funds. I am also assuming that the $8M in two years for two platforms doesn't correspond to something in the very rough neighbourhood of $2M per year per platform, but it could be that that's not the case. It's also possible that the INFER forecasting sphere and the sphere that I pay the most attention to don't overlap as much, which could be a positive. Still, the difference between the funds they receive and the impact that I perceive as for a while a small mystery to me.
|
||||
|
||||
Now, in its yearly review, INFER [mentions](https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/season-review-2022) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221222200606/https://www.infer-pub.com/the-pub/season-review-2022)) working on "an internal U.S. Government-wide site" for 2023. That does seem like it could absorb large amounts of funds. Still, personally, I'd love to see a bill of how much was spent where.
|
||||
|
||||
### Metaculus
|
||||
|
||||
Metaculus held a [Million Predictions Hackathon](https://scribe.froth.zone/announcing-metaculuss-million-predictions-hackathon-91c2dfa3f39) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174232/https://scribe.froth.zone/announcing-metaculuss-million-predictions-hackathon-91c2dfa3f39)), and posted their [year in review](https://scribe.froth.zone/metaculus-year-in-review-2022-c92ff9cd87a0) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174302/https://scribe.froth.zone/metaculus-year-in-review-2022-c92ff9cd87a0)). They are also hosting a [beginner tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221120092344/https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/beginner-tournament/)), which seems like a neat way of introduction to forecasting.
|
||||
|
||||
### Manifold
|
||||
|
||||
Vincent Luczkow [analyzes](https://github.com/vluzko/manifoldpy) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221228201434/https://github.com/vluzko/manifoldpy)) whether Manifold Markets are well calibrated, and finds that they are:
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
A Manifold Community member analyzed the performance of various prediction platforms on the [US elections](https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221215030200/https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison)). I find that these analyses don't really take into account that political outcomes are massively correlated. And so in years in which Democrats do well, platforms with a Democratic bias will do well, and vice-versa. Still, this isn't totally uninformative.
|
||||
|
||||
Manifold adds swipe functionality to bet. I think this is pure evil genius, in the sense of being a very addictive skinner box, and I'm very impressed. You can try it [here](https://manifold.markets/swipe) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221031121657/https://manifold.markets/swipe)).
|
||||
|
||||
Manifold now has [Android](https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.markets.manifoldhttps://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.markets.manifold&pli=1) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174337/https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.markets.manifoldhttps://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.markets.manifold&pli=1)) and [iOS](https://apps.apple.com/us/app/manifold-markets/id6444136749) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221208084400/https://apps.apple.com/us/app/manifold-markets/id6444136749)) apps.
|
||||
|
||||
### Odds and ends
|
||||
|
||||
The FTX Foundation, a major founder of innovative forecasting projects, exists no longer after the downfall of FTX. More on this in the next edition of this newsletter.
|
||||
|
||||
The Effective Altruism Forum has started a [subforum for forecasting and estimation](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/azL6uPcbCqBfJ37TJ/announcing-a-subforum-for-forecasting-and-estimation) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230104122631/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/azL6uPcbCqBfJ37TJ/announcing-a-subforum-for-forecasting-and-estimation)). Right now it mostly has some seed discussions started by employees of the Center for Effective Altruism.
|
||||
|
||||
I don't recommend that subforum for general forecasting discussion because I think that the EA Forum has too onerous "be nice" rules, whereas I tend to most like spaces that are maximally uncensorious and are willing to sacrifice other values in the pursuit of accuracy. For instance, Discord spaces from Metaculus, Polymarket & others have tended to be extremely unmoderated.
|
||||
|
||||
Some comments from Good Judgment Open from the last long while:
|
||||
|
||||
- [julick](https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1545611) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174359/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1545611)) summarizes some [Cambridge research on regime change](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/war-and-the-fate-of-regimes-a-comparative-analysis/88056B8C9BE0413DB349086653B58520) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220914032710/https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/abs/war-and-the-fate-of-regimes-a-comparative-analysis/88056B8C9BE0413DB349086653B58520)) and points out that "For regimes that initiated wars and lost them the regime change by violence within 3 years is 60-80%. For an initiator that won the probability is 20-35%."
|
||||
- [Anneinak](https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554036) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174419/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554036)) gives a 15% to Twitter crashing by December 2023, and points to [this article](https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554036) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174419/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1554036)): "If the \[EU\] Commission elects to designate Twitter a VLOP \[Very Large Online Platform\] under the DSA \[Digital Services Act\] the business will face an accelerated compliance timetable with oversight kicking in in February next year — rather than in February 2024 — and with a tougher set of requirements to assess and mitigate risks on its platform."
|
||||
- Some [interesting discussion](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2659-between-9-december-2022-and-9-june-2023-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174450/https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2659-between-9-december-2022-and-9-june-2023-will-north-korea-detonate-a-nuclear-device)) on whether North Korea will detonate a nuclear device, which includes and would most likely be a nuclear test.
|
||||
- Forecaster [belikewater](https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1568206) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174513/https://www.gjopen.com/comments/1568206)) does a nice, textbook base rate calculation to conclude that the current Italian Prime Minister, Meloni, will probably not (10%) stop being PM by October 2023.
|
||||
|
||||
A decentralized sports prediction market has gotten [circa $5M](https://www.theblock.co/post/194496/susquehanna-bets-on-decentralized-sports-prediction-market-frontrunner) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174536/https://www.theblock.co/post/194496/susquehanna-bets-on-decentralized-sports-prediction-market-frontrunner)) in [funding](https://techfundingnews.com/frontrunner-secures-4-75m-to-create-decentralised-sports-prediction-market/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221224043943/https://techfundingnews.com/frontrunner-secures-4-75m-to-create-decentralised-sports-prediction-market/)).
|
||||
|
||||
Hypermind continues to host its [Russia Punished](https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=RUSSANCT1) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174607/https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/showcase2/showcase.html?sc=RUSSANCT1)) series of questions.
|
||||
|
||||
Scott Alexander wrote a [Prediction Market FAQ](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174747/https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/prediction-market-faq)) and is hosting a [prediction contest](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230103085602/https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest)) with a few days left to enter. If someone calculates expected reward over expected time, please post it as a comment.
|
||||
|
||||
Web3 betting platform [loses $0.4M in hack](https://newsbtc.com/news/company/dexsport-loses-400000-in-hack-user-funds-remain-unaffected/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221211201410/https://newsbtc.com/news/company/dexsport-loses-400000-in-hack-user-funds-remain-unaffected/)).
|
||||
|
||||
[Against the Odds](https://againsttheodds.es/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105125805/https://againsttheodds.es/)) is a platform available to Spaniards which offers the opportunity to earn around $500/month through "crossed bets", i.e., betting one thing in one prediction market and the opposite in another, in order to make a guaranteed profit. The service itself seems legit and comes recommended by a friend. But interested Spaniards should calculate whether this is worth it, e.g,. earning 7€ for 5 mins of work is 84€/hour, and in practice something like 50€/hour including time to set up things.
|
||||
|
||||
Forecasting community member Avraham Eisenberg was both despised and admired after pulling off a [$114M heist](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/15/114m-mango-markets-exploiter-outs-himself-returns-most-of-the-money/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221223162406/https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/10/15/114m-mango-markets-exploiter-outs-himself-returns-most-of-the-money/)) on a prediction platform. Now, he has been [arrested in Puerto Rico](https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106173959/https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/12/27/mango-markets-exploiter-eisenberg-arrested-in-puerto-rico/)), and will be facing trial. He remains 47th on the Metaculus leaderboard, as can be seen on [his profile](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221225212754/https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/114222/)).
|
||||
|
||||
## Opportunities
|
||||
|
||||
The [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221222190557/https://forecastingresearch.org/)) is a new think tank which has some senior research talent. Their [research page](https://forecastingresearch.org/research) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221214224323/https://forecastingresearch.org/research)) should give readers a good taste of what they are about; my impression is that they have a strong academic component and will be aiming to be a bit more institutional than other efforts in the space. I hesitate to mention this, but Phil Tetlock takes the perhaps somewhat ceremonial or advisory role of President.
|
||||
|
||||
[Here](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/kEd5qWwg8pZjWAeFS/announcing-the-forecasting-research-institute-we-re-hiring) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174029/https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/kEd5qWwg8pZjWAeFS/announcing-the-forecasting-research-institute-we-re-hiring)) is a post on the EA forum introducing them. They are currently [hiring](https://forecastingresearch.org/apply) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221222190529/https://forecastingresearch.org/apply)) for research analyst ($70k/year), data analyst ($70k), content editor ($60k) and research assistant ($15/hour) positions.
|
||||
|
||||
Other people who are hiring are
|
||||
|
||||
- [Metaculus](https://apply.workable.com/metaculus/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221209055644/https://apply.workable.com/metaculus/))
|
||||
- [Blue Rose research](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/01/06/blue-rose-research-is-hiring/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230106074310/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/01/06/blue-rose-research-is-hiring/))
|
||||
- Insight Prediction [was hiring](https://www.econjobrumors.com/topic/insight-prediction-is-hiring) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106174830/https://www.econjobrumors.com/topic/insight-prediction-is-hiring)), and maybe still is
|
||||
|
||||
## Writeups
|
||||
|
||||
### Shortform
|
||||
|
||||
The US 2022 congressional elections happened. Some relevant pieces on
|
||||
that:
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
- Arpit Gupta looks at the [relative performance](https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/loss-for-prediction-markets-in-the) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002406/https://arpitrage.substack.com/p/loss-for-prediction-markets-in-the)) of PredictIt, 538, Manifold Markets and Metaculus in the 2022 US election. He concludes that Metaculus does best.
|
||||
- This substack also [compares PredictIt, 538 and Manifold Markets](https://mikesaintantoine.substack.com/p/scoring-midterm-election-forecasts) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221126214755/https://mikesaintantoine.substack.com/p/scoring-midterm-election-forecasts)).
|
||||
- In postmortem analysis, FiveThrirtyEight [finds that a data aggregation error meaningfully changed their forecasts](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-data-processing-error-changed-our-deluxe-forecast/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221201012643/https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-a-data-processing-error-changed-our-deluxe-forecast/)).
|
||||
- Tanae Rao collects [all trades on Polymarket for the 2022 US midterm elections](https://github.com/tanaerao/polymarket-midterms) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221120230038/https://github.com/tanaerao/polymarket-midterms)).
|
||||
|
||||
With regard to comparisons between platforms, I don’t think that those analyses are completely uninformative. But I'd be hesitant to draw conclusions from one electoral season, because election outcomes are correlated. So for instance it could be that PredictIt is biased in favour of Republicans, Metaculus is biased in favour of Democrats, and Democrats did better this time.
|
||||
|
||||
In [Tracking the money flows in forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ytHCpLbT6A4gxqH8s/tracking-the-money-flows-in-forecasting) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002212/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ytHCpLbT6A4gxqH8s/tracking-the-money-flows-in-forecasting)), I post some rough monetary valuation estimates for a large number of forecasting or prediction market organizations. The most out-of-place platform there is INFER, as reviewed above.
|
||||
|
||||
[This online presentation](https://csustan.csustan.edu/~tom/Lecture-Notes/Non-Ergodic/Non-Ergodic-Short/Non-Ergodic-Short.pdf) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221115165242/https://csustan.csustan.edu/~tom/Lecture-Notes/Non-Ergodic/Non-Ergodic-Short/Non-Ergodic-Short.pdf)) gives a few examples of systems whose expected value is far apart from the most likely value. h/t [Adam Marblestone](https://twitter.com/AdamMarblestone) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221206194732/https://twitter.com/AdamMarblestone)).
|
||||
|
||||
Gelman [points to a history of forecasting competitions](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/12/history-of-time-series-forecasting-competitions/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221127082244/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/12/history-of-time-series-forecasting-competitions/)).
|
||||
|
||||
Jaime Sevilla posts [Some research ideas in forecasting](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ozPL3mLGShqvjhiaG/some-research-ideas-in-forecasting) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230105002420/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ozPL3mLGShqvjhiaG/some-research-ideas-in-forecasting)).
|
||||
|
||||
The great Robin Hanson proposes [clean politician bonds](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/11/clean-politician-bonds.html) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221224124910/https://www.overcomingbias.com/2022/11/clean-politician-bonds.html)):
|
||||
|
||||
> Assume you will vote for 1 of 2 candidates for US Mayor, Governor, or House of Repr. Only 1 has posted $1M bond payable to anyone who proves their misbehavior re lies, bribes, or other cheating. On average, what is chance you vote for this candidate?
|
||||
|
||||
[This brief blogpost](https://breakingthemarket.com/the-most-misunderstood-force-in-the-universe/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221117115030/https://breakingthemarket.com/the-most-misunderstood-force-in-the-universe/)) looks at when the geometric average of returns is a misleading indicator.
|
||||
|
||||
Alvaro de Menard writes [Forecasting Forecasting](https://fantasticanachronism.com/2022/11/21/forecasting-forecasting/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221215042936/https://fantasticanachronism.com/2022/11/21/forecasting-forecasting/)), a short article looking at his perspective on the future of forecasting. Curiously, the article is fairly obsequious towards my forecasting group, Samotsvety.
|
||||
|
||||
There is an AI risk tournament whose results should be coming up soon that had superforecasters look at the chance of existential risk tournament due to AI. Participant Ege Erdil [writes](https://twitter.com/EgeErdil2/status/1594723484860665858) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106175129/https://twitter.com/EgeErdil2/status/1594723484860665858)):
|
||||
|
||||
> i was one of the people who participated in the AI forecasting thing you cite here, and the experience was unfortunately very bad due to various reasons
|
||||
>
|
||||
> i would strongly push back on the idea that the people selected were in any sense "top forecasters"
|
||||
|
||||
Lao Mein writes [Human-level Diplomacy was my fire alarm](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AZHHEPYWvTovvtikz/human-level-diplomacy-was-my-fire-alarm) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221202162217/https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AZHHEPYWvTovvtikz/human-level-diplomacy-was-my-fire-alarm)).
|
||||
|
||||
Nikos Bosse is working on a [database of baserates](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H7xWzvwvkyywDAEkL/creating-a-database-for-base-rates) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221223122549/https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/H7xWzvwvkyywDAEkL/creating-a-database-for-base-rates)).
|
||||
|
||||
A newsletter from Cultivate Labs highlights an article on [Crowd Forecasting and Effective Altruism](https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/crowd-forecasting-and-effective-altruism) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221223123956/https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/crowd-forecasting-and-effective-altruism)).
|
||||
|
||||
Ben West looks at the [rate of fraud in YCombinator startups](https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/5mghcxCabxuaK4WTs/ycombinator-fraud-rates) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106175234/https://ea.greaterwrong.com/posts/5mghcxCabxuaK4WTs/ycombinator-fraud-rates)), and finds that "1-2% of $100M+ YCombinator-backed companies have faced serious allegations of fraud".
|
||||
|
||||
This [old Washington Post article](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20211005190327/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/03/18/how-the-likelihood-of-breaking-up-changes-as-time-goes-by/)) shows the annual risk of breakup for married and unmarried couples:
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
Cultivate Labs' CEO [reviews](https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/2022-in-the-rearview) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221223123956/https://www.cultivatelabs.com/posts/2022-in-the-rearview)) his company's activities in 2022. In particular:
|
||||
|
||||
> The INFER project run by UMD’s ARLIS will be announcing a co-sponsored forecasting tournament with a significant player in the AI space next month, and will also be formally launching a U.S. Government-wide forecasting platform in the spring.
|
||||
|
||||
The European Commission, an organ of the European Union, has [a page with economic forecasts and trends](https://commission.europa.eu/statistics/economic-forecasts-and-trends_en) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221225144109/https://commission.europa.eu/statistics/economic-forecasts-and-trends_en)). Its economic forecasts are [here](https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts_en) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221227042949/https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/economic-forecast-and-surveys/economic-forecasts_en)) and [here](https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/forecasts/index_en.htm) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221101065157/https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/forecasts/index_en.htm)). It would be a neat research project to track results and check whether they are calibrated. It would also be easy to propose possible improvements: use range forecasts instead of point estimates, and use very liquid markets if you really care.
|
||||
|
||||
Here are [some forecasts on British tourism](https://www.visitbritain.org/2023-tourism-forecast) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230104165249/https://www.visitbritain.org/2023-tourism-forecast)).
|
||||
|
||||
Pinterest has a flashy [Pinterest Predicts](https://business.pinterest.com/en-us/pinterest-predicts/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230104173909/https://business.pinterest.com/en-us/pinterest-predicts/)) webpage (methodology explained [here](https://business.pinterest.com/en-us/blog/how-we-forecast-trends-pinterest-predicts/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221228013359/https://business.pinterest.com/en-us/blog/how-we-forecast-trends-pinterest-predicts/))). Pinterest is used by people to plan stuff, and Pinterest can rely on the law of straight lines to predict that trends that are growing will continue to do so.
|
||||
|
||||
[Does (a measure of) CEO overconfidence affect management forecasting and subsequent earnings management?](https://sci-hub.se/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1911-3846.12144) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230104231627/https://sci-hub.se/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/1911-3846.12144)). A paper finds that it does.
|
||||
|
||||
The International Journal of Forecasting has a [special issue](https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-forecasting/vol/38/issue/4) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-forecasting/vol/38/issue/4)) on the M5 competition.
|
||||
|
||||
The Wall Street Journal reports on how companies use [uncertainty and rising energy prices as the justification for increasing price](https://www.wsj.com/articles/unilever-cfo-struggles-with-forecasting-accuracy-amid-high-inflation-11666904322) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105211045/https://www.wsj.com/articles/unilever-cfo-struggles-with-forecasting-accuracy-amid-high-inflation-11666904322)). You could take them at their word. On the other hand, in Spain, where food prices have risen a whole lot, some people view these as illegitimate cash grabs.
|
||||
|
||||
[This paper](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667%2822%2900203-1/fulltext) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002641/https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667%2822%2900203-1/fulltext)) tries to forecast the burden on the Chinese health system by tracking a large sample of older people.
|
||||
|
||||
Amazon offers some [automated ML forecasting](https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/29/aws-brings-natural-language-forecasting-queries-to-quicksight-q) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://techcrunch.com/2022/11/29/aws-brings-natural-language-forecasting-queries-to-quicksight-q)), as does [Oracle](https://www.oracle.com/sk/artificial-intelligence/forecasting/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002702/https://www.oracle.com/sk/artificial-intelligence/forecasting/)).
|
||||
|
||||
### Longform
|
||||
|
||||
Jared Leibowich looks at [Modeling the End of Monkeypox](https://asteriskmag.com/issues/1/modeling-the-end-of-monkeypox) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221122015655/https://asteriskmag.com/issues/1/modeling-the-end-of-monkeypox)) in a new EA magazine, [Asterisk](https://asteriskmag.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221212215202/https://asteriskmag.com/)).
|
||||
|
||||
[This blogpost](https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221222172413/https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/)) won $20k from GiveWell’s "Change our Mind Contest." It looks at how their analyses could be improved by considering the uncertainty in their estimates, and does this at some depth, providing examples and recommendations.
|
||||
|
||||
Prominent anti-vaccine personality Steve Kirsh offered [$500k bets](https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221104130431/https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules)) on the result of a public debate on whether vaccines save lives or not. [Rootclaim](https://www.rootclaim.com/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230104080248/https://www.rootclaim.com/)), a hardcore Bayesian analysis organization, put significant efforts into doing their homework, and [accepted the bet](https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-accepts-500000-challenge-on-covid-vaccine-safety-efficacy/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221129133112/https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaim-accepts-500000-challenge-on-covid-vaccine-safety-efficacy/)). Then Kirsh [dishonourably chickened out](https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221104130431/https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/1m-bet-rules)). A transcript of the negotiations can be found [here](https://www.skirsch.com/covid/SaarWilf.pdf) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221224061743/https://www.skirsch.com/covid/SaarWilf.pdf)).
|
||||
|
||||
The Swift Centre has a report on [what would happen if Russia uses a nuclear weapon](https://www.swiftcentre.org/what-would-be-the-consequences-of-a-nuclear-weapon-being-used-in-the-russia-ukraine-war/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230104231909/https://www.swiftcentre.org/what-would-be-the-consequences-of-a-nuclear-weapon-being-used-in-the-russia-ukraine-war/)), and is accepting commissions for topics to forecasting. They can be contacted at info@swiftcentre.org.
|
||||
|
||||
Andrew Gelman [points](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/04/new-version-of-posteriordb-a-database-of-posterior-distributions-for-evaluating-bayesian-computation-algorithms/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230104231944/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/04/new-version-of-posteriordb-a-database-of-posterior-distributions-for-evaluating-bayesian-computation-algorithms/)) to [PosteriorDB](https://github.com/stan-dev/posteriordb) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002803/https://github.com/stan-dev/posteriordb)) a database of posteriors.
|
||||
|
||||
Friend of the newsletter Pratik Chougule recently published [American Universities in the Middle East and U.S. Foreign Policy](https://brill.com/display/title/63192) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002822/https://brill.com/display/title/63192)). It seems oddly specific, so I'd instead recommend his older & cheaper [How to Make Money from Political Predictions](https://www.amazon.com/How-Make-Money-Political-Predictions-ebook/dp/B01KEGLRJ2) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://www.amazon.com/How-Make-Money-Political-Predictions-ebook/dp/B01KEGLRJ2)).
|
||||
|
||||
Michael Story writes about [why he generally doesn't recommend internal prediction markets or forecasting tournaments to organisations](https://mwstory.substack.com/p/why-i-generally-dont-recommend-internal) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106175846/https://mwstory.substack.com/p/why-i-generally-dont-recommend-internal)).
|
||||
|
||||
## In the News
|
||||
|
||||
Walter Frick of [Nonrival](https://nonrival.pub/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221222000715/https://nonrival.pub/)) writes [Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets](https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002710/https://www.niemanlab.org/2022/12/journalists-wake-up-to-the-power-of-prediction-markets/)), a short piece introducing the concept and resources to journalists.
|
||||
|
||||
The New York Times has an article ([a](https://archive.is/FLB4p)) on "Forecasting the Future of Election Prediction Markets". It has this nice tidbit:
|
||||
|
||||
> PredictIt is something of a hybrid. It is a joint venture. One partner is Victoria University of Wellington, a New Zealand institution. The other is Aristotle, a for-profit American political consulting, compliance, data and software company, **whose founder**, John Aristotle Phillips, first gained national attention in 1976 as “the A-bomb kid” — a Princeton undergraduate who **successfully designed an atomic bomb** in a physics class project.
|
||||
|
||||
I also find it interesting how the NYT article mostly cites academics rather than, e.g., [Sam Altman's comments to the CFTC](https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=69699) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106194025/https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/ViewComment.aspx?id=69699)) or other [interesting figures](https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentList.aspx?id=7311) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentList.aspx?id=7311)).
|
||||
|
||||
Vegas Slots Online has a short article [CFTC Ready to Deny Political Betting Request From Kalshi as PredictIt Levies a Lawsuit](https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2022/10/31/cftc-ready-to-deny-political-betting-request-from-kalshi/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221101221514/https://www.vegasslotsonline.com/news/2022/10/31/cftc-ready-to-deny-political-betting-request-from-kalshi/)).
|
||||
|
||||
El País, a major Spanish newspaper, [directly embedded prediction markets](https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-11-01/us-election-forecast-republicans-will-control-the-house-the-senate-is-too-close-to-call.html) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221208220725/https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-11-01/us-election-forecast-republicans-will-control-the-house-the-senate-is-too-close-to-call.html)) in its reporting on the US election.
|
||||
|
||||
Newsweek, on [Marjorie Taylor Greene's Chances of Losing Georgia Re-election](https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-chances-losing-georgia-re-election-1756671) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230106180010/https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-chances-losing-georgia-re-election-1756671)).
|
||||
|
||||
Fast Company has a lengthy profile on ["the wild subculture of traders who bet on elections"](https://www.fastcompany.com/90796054/inside-the-wild-subculture-of-traders-who-bet-on-elections) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221109203752/https://www.fastcompany.com/90796054/inside-the-wild-subculture-of-traders-who-bet-on-elections)).
|
||||
|
||||
[The Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/11/political-betting-elections-forecasting-future/672113/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221202193500/https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/11/political-betting-elections-forecasting-future/672113/)): "In the eight years since PredictIt began, online sports gambling went from being outlawed nearly everywhere in the country to a booming industry... In this context, the crackdown on political betting seems somewhat silly... As it turns out, on another site, Insight Prediction, you can bet on PredictIt’s survival. The price of Yes, as of this writing, is 10 cents. Even if the CFTC follows through on its initial decision to shut the site down, it’s hard not to feel that PredictIt has, in some more meaningful way, already won."
|
||||
|
||||
The Financial Times reviews [a few of the wackier $1M investments](https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221227114544/https://www.ft.com/content/9a3b4b78-b18b-4d1f-b28b-05a73525aa61)) FTX made, including Manifold Markets.
|
||||
|
||||
Vox [reviews](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/31/23509593/2022-predictions-macron-bolsanaro-covid-inflation-unemployment-climate-change-olympics) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105091649/https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/12/31/23509593/2022-predictions-macron-bolsanaro-covid-inflation-unemployment-climate-change-olympics)) its yearly numerical predictions and makes new ones.
|
||||
|
||||
### Extra: The tax-evaded Nazi money which influences German politics and US/NATO relationships has opened a new forecasting platform.
|
||||
|
||||
A smallish company [rises](https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/truth-comes-bertelsmann-admits-nazi-past/160317) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105002941/https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/truth-comes-bertelsmann-admits-nazi-past/160317)) to become a major German publisher during the [Nazi times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertelsmann#1933_to_1945). After World War II, the now disgraced father gives control of the company to one of his surviving sons. The son manages the business competently, and greatly expands it. In an attempted tax evasion scheme, he divides the company's stock into a small percentage of voting stock and a large percentage of non-voting stock which he gives to a private foundation—I think this is the same trick which failed for the [Ford Foundation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Foundation) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003036/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Foundation)).
|
||||
|
||||
Except that this time, the [trick](https://taz.de/!5137745/)[succeeds](http://www.bertelsmannkritik.de/index.htm) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003044/http://www.bertelsmannkritik.de/index.htm)), and after the death of the founder, it allows the family to keep control of assets while minimizing tax exposure. But the logic of the scheme requires that the company give out as few dividends as possible—because they would then be trapped inside the foundation and be difficult to get out. Which is why Bertelsmann has greatly expanded and is now a $30B behemoth which owns [Penguin Random House](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_House) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221224150408/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_House)) as one of many items in an absurdly [long list of assets](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Bertelsmann) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20221031225743/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assets_owned_by_Bertelsmann)). Amusingly, they also [have the same person](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigitte_Mohn#Career) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20221114210641/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brigitte_Mohn#Career)) represent the interest of the family and of the foundation.
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
*Cover of the "Heimat, wider Heimat" book, which translates to something like "Motherland, oh Motherland again", published by Bertelsmann. Note dog whistle connotations of [Heimat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heimat#Modern_history). The author, Gustav Schröer, is one of four authors that I could quickly find that were both published by Bertelsmann and signed the "[Declaration of Allegiance of German Writers](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gel%C3%B6bnis_treuester_Gefolgschaft) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003103/https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gel%C3%B6bnis_treuester_Gefolgschaft))" to Adolf Hitler. The others are Rudolf G. Binding, Otto Flake and Fritz Müller-Partenkirchen. The case of Otto Flake is particularly interesting, since Bertelsmann rescued him from poverty in 1958 by reprinting old books of his.*
|
||||
|
||||
Now, the Bertelsmann foundation has made a small contribution to the forecasting world by starting the [Range Forecasting](https://www.rangeforecasting.org/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003141/https://www.rangeforecasting.org/)) platform, which runs on Cultivate Labs software. Per a recent Cultivate Labs newsletter:
|
||||
|
||||
> Earlier this year, the Bertelsmann Stiftung and Bertelsmann Foundation, in partnership with Cultivate Labs, launched RANGE (Rethinking Assumptions in a New Geostrategic Environment) to forecast on topics critical to the transatlantic relationship. RANGE asks questions related to systemic rivalry with China, climate change, democracy, geopolitics, trade, and economics, all to gain a greater perspective of the transatlantic relationship and to provide analysis and recommendations for U.S. and European policymakers.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> At a critical time for strengthening global relations, the Stiftung and Foundation aim to engage an international audience in understanding how the transatlantic relationship affects us all, and how it can and should be shaped for the future. Read our recent announcement about the partnership and learn more at rangeforecasting.org. RANGE was featured this week at the 2022 Futures Forum in Münster, Germany, a side event of the G7 minister’s meeting, which brought together American and German experts and rising leaders from civil society, academia, the private sector, and government to discuss transatlantic relations and the intersection of democracy and technology.
|
||||
>
|
||||
> Earlier today at the Forum, Cultivate Labs CEO Adam Siegel spoke alongside Bertelsmann Foundation Executive Director Irene Braam about RANGE and the ways that crowd forecasting can help us better understand and strengthen transatlantic relations.
|
||||
>
|
||||
I do think that this new forecasting platform might be of some use. And I want to express my continued high regard for Cultivate Labs as one of the few platforms that have the proven ability to bring forth a new platform into existence, and maintain it through time. But I guess that reputational laundering of billionaires' money is easier to notice when it is billionaires I don't care much about. And in this particular case, the provenance of the money seems so illegitimate, so rotten, as to be almost comical.
|
||||
|
||||
## Yearly housekeeping
|
||||
|
||||
[Here](https://forms.gle/L6kv9GKh5eSf2Kmb6) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230106180045/https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd3eFDhdDReceLrSly4gWmGliHdCX7LNEJygGUEttkLi57M_Q/viewform?usp=send_form#short_url=https://forms.gle/L6kv9GKh5eSf2Kmb6)) is my yearly feedback form for this newsletter. I care most about readers' thoughts on whether this newsletter should be posted once a month or once every two months, and about freeform thoughts.
|
||||
|
||||
Also note that as the price I assign to my time rises, I'm becoming more ambivalent about whether to continue publishing this newsletter. If you have strong feelings about whether this newsletter should continue existing, consider becoming a paid subscriber, because a) I consider that a strong signal that I should continue writing this newsletter, b) I like the money, and c) the rate of current paid subscriptions is a pitiful [1.6%](https://substack.com/going-paid-guide#grow-paid-list) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://substack.com/going-paid-guide#grow-paid-list)).
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
Note to the future: All links are added automatically to the Internet Archive, using this [tool](https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003212/https://github.com/NunoSempere/longNowForMd)). "(a)" for archived links was inspired by [Milan Griffes](https://www.flightfromperfection.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230105003223/https://www.flightfromperfection.com/)), [Andrew Zuckerman](https://www.andzuck.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20220316214638/https://www.andzuck.com/)), and [Alexey Guzey](https://guzey.com/) ([a](http://web.archive.org/web/20230101090040/https://guzey.com/)).
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
> If I had to put my money where my mouth is, my mouth wouldn’t be very busy. I’m just sayin’… — [Anonymous commenter](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/10/27/you-can-read-for-free-but-comments-cost-money-or-is-it-the-other-way-around/) ([a](https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/10/27/you-can-read-for-free-but-comments-cost-money-or-is-it-the-other-way-around/))
|
||||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue
Block a user