tweak: some tweaks
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## In 2020...
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## In 2020...
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- [A review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://nunosempere.com/2020/01/15/MIT_EDX_Review)
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- [A review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses](https://nunosempere.com/2020/01/15/mit-edx-review)
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- [A review of two books on survey-making](https://nunosempere.com/2020/03/01/Survey_Making)
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- [A review of two books on survey-making](https://nunosempere.com/2020/03/01/survey-making)
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- [Shapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/03/10/Shapley_Values_II)
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- [Shapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/03/10/shapley-values-ii)
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- [New Cause Proposal: International Supply Chain Accountability](https://nunosempere.com/2020/04/01/International_Supply_Chain)
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- [New Cause Proposal: International Supply Chain Accountability](https://nunosempere.com/2020/04/01/international-supply-chain-accountability)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020](https://nunosempere.com/2020/04/30/Forecasting_Newsletter_2020_04)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020](https://nunosempere.com/2020/04/30/forecasting-newsletter-2020-04)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/05/31/forecasting-newsletter-may-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/05/31/forecasting-newsletter-2020-05)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/07/01/forecasting-newsletter-june-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/07/01/forecasting-newsletter-2020-06)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/08/01/forecasting-newsletter-july-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/08/01/forecasting-newsletter-2020-07)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020. ](https://nunosempere.com/2020/09/01/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020. ](https://nunosempere.com/2020/09/01/forecasting-newsletter-august-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020. ](https://nunosempere.com/2020/10/01/forecasting-newsletter-september-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020. ](https://nunosempere.com/2020/10/01/forecasting-newsletter-september-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/11/01/forecasting-newsletter-october-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/11/01/forecasting-newsletter-october-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/01/forecasting-newsletter-november-2020)
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- [Forecasting Newsletter: November 2020.](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/01/forecasting-newsletter-november-2020)
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- [What are good rubrics or rubric elements to evaluate and predict impact?](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/03/what-are-good-rubrics-or-rubric-elements-to-evaluate-and)
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- [What are good rubrics or rubric elements to evaluate and predict impact?](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/03/what-are-good-rubrics-or-rubric-elements-to-evaluate-and)
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- [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/25/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
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- [Big List of Cause Candidates](https://nunosempere.com/2020/12/25/big-list-of-cause-candidates)
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@ -5,7 +5,7 @@ This post outlines some work in altruistic estimation that seems currently doabl
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Two downsides of this post are that a) it looks at things that are more salient to me, and doesn't comprehensively review all estimation work being done, and b) it could use more examples.
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Two downsides of this post are that a) it looks at things that are more salient to me, and doesn't comprehensively review all estimation work being done, and b) it could use more examples.
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<img src="https://images.nunosempere.comblog/2023/03/20/estimation-in-the-horizon/saruman.png" alt="Saruman in Isengard looking at an army of orcs" class="img-medium-center" />
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<img src="https://images.nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/20/estimation-in-the-horizon/saruman.png" alt="Saruman in Isengard looking at an army of orcs" class="img-medium-center" />
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*<br>Saruman in Isengard looking at an army of orcs*
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*<br>Saruman in Isengard looking at an army of orcs*
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## Directions
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## Directions
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@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ https://forum.nunosempere.com/posts/[post id]/[optional post slug]
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An [example post](https://forum.nunosempere.com/posts/fz6NdW4i25FZoRQyz/use-of-i-d-bet-on-the-ea-forum-is-mostly-metaphorical)---chosen to be a link post so that you can see both the article and the comments---looks like this:
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An [example post](https://forum.nunosempere.com/posts/fz6NdW4i25FZoRQyz/use-of-i-d-bet-on-the-ea-forum-is-mostly-metaphorical)---chosen to be a link post so that you can see both the article and the comments---looks like this:
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### Notes
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### Notes
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Updating in the face of anthropic effects is possible
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Updating in the face of anthropic effects is possible
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======================================================
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======================================================
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*Status: Trivial point worth writting up clearly.*
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*Status: Simple point worth writting up clearly.*
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### Motivating example
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### Motivating example
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year=2023
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year="$1" ## bash traverse.sh 2019
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echo "## In $year..."
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echo "## In $year..."
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echo
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echo
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