nunosempere.com/blog/2022/index.md

## In 2022...

- [Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021](https://nunosempere.com/2022/01/10/forecasting-newsletter-december-2021)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: Looking back at 2021.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/01/27/forecasting-newsletter-looking-back-at-2021)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/02/03/forecasting-newsletter-january-2022)
- [Splitting the timeline as an extinction risk intervention](https://nunosempere.com/2022/02/06/splitting-the-timeline-as-an-extinction-risk-intervention)
- [We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants](https://nunosempere.com/2022/02/08/we-are-giving-usd10k-as-forecasting-micro-grants)
- [Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions](https://nunosempere.com/2022/02/18/five-steps-for-quantifying-speculative-interventions)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/03/05/forecasting-newsletter-february-2022)
- [Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/03/10/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022)
- [Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers](https://nunosempere.com/2022/03/17/valuing-research-works-by-eliciting-comparisons-from-ea)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/01/forecasting-newsletter-april-2222)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/05/forecasting-newsletter-march-2022)
- [A quick note on the value of donations](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/06/note-donations)
- [Open Philanthopy allocation by cause area](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/07/openphil-allocation)
- [Better scoring rules](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/16/optimal-scoring)
- [Simple Squiggle](https://nunosempere.com/2022/04/17/simple-squiggle)
- [EA Forum Lowdown: April 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/05/01/ea-forum-lowdown-april-2022)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/05/10/forecasting-newsletter-april-2022)
- [Infinite Ethics 101: Stochastic and Statewise Dominance as a Backup Decision Theory when Expected Values Fail](https://nunosempere.com/2022/05/20/infinite-ethics-101)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/06/03/forecasting-newsletter-may-2022)
- [The Tragedy of Calisto and Melibea](https://nunosempere.com/2022/06/14/the-tragedy-of-calisto-and-melibea)
- [A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal  Justice Reform](https://nunosempere.com/2022/06/16/criminal-justice)
- [Cancellation insurance](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/04/cancellation-insurance)
- [I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/05/i-will-bet-on-your-success-or-failure)
- [The Maximum Vindictiveness Strategy](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/09/maximum-vindictiveness-strategy)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/12/forecasting-newsletter-june-2022)
- [Some thoughts on Turing.jl](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/23/thoughts-on-turing-julia)
- [How much would I have to run to lose 20 kilograms?](https://nunosempere.com/2022/07/27/how-much-to-run-to-lose-20-kilograms)
- [$1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/04/usd1-000-squiggle-experimentation-challenge)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/08/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022)
- [A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/10/evolutionary-anchor)
- [What do Americans think 'cutlery' means?](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/18/what-do-americans-mean-by-cutlery)
- [Introduction to Fermi estimates](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/20/fermi-introduction)
- [A comment on Cox's theorem and probabilistic inductivism.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/08/31/on-cox-s-theorem-and-probabilistic-induction)
- [Simple estimation examples in Squiggle](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/02/simple-estimation-examples-in-squiggle)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/10/forecasting-newsletter-august-2022)
- [Distribution of salaries in Spain](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/11/salary-ranges-spain)
- [An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/12/an-experiment-eliciting-relative-estimates-for-open)
- [Use distributions to more parsimoniously estimate impact](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/15/use-distributions-to-more-parsimoniously-estimate-impact)
- [Utilitarianism: An Incomplete Approach](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/19/utilitarianism-an-incomplete-approach)
- [$5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/23/usd5k-challenge-to-quantify-the-impact-of-80-000-hours-top)
- [Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths](https://nunosempere.com/2022/09/28/granular-AMF)
- [Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/03/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-update-october-2022)
- [Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/10/five-slightly-more-hardcore-squiggle-models)
- [Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/12/forecasting-newsletter-september-2022)
- [Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/17/the-commons)
- [Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/21/brief-evaluations-of-top-10-billionnaires)
- [Are flimsy evaluations worth it?](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/27/are-flimsy-evaluations-worth-it)
- [Brief thoughts on my personal research strategy](https://nunosempere.com/2022/10/31/brief-thoughts-personal-strategy)
- [Metaforecast late 2022 update: GraphQL API, Charts, better infrastructure behind the scenes.](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/04/metaforecast-late-2022-update)
- [Tracking the money flows in forecasting](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/06/forecasting-money-flows)
- [Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/15/forecasting-newsletter-for-october-2022)
- [Some data on the stock of EA™ funding ](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/20/brief-update-ea-funding)
- [List of past fraudsters similar to SBF](https://nunosempere.com/2022/11/28/list-of-past-fraudsters-similar-to-sbf)
- [Goodhart's law and aligning politics with human flourishing ](https://nunosempere.com/2022/12/05/goodhart-politics)
- [COVID-19 in rural Balochistan, Pakistan: Two interviews from May 2020](https://nunosempere.com/2022/12/16/covid-19-in-rural-balochistan-pakistan-two-interviews-from-1)
- [Hacking on rose](https://nunosempere.com/2022/12/20/hacking-on-rose)
- [A basic argument for AI risk](https://nunosempere.com/2022/12/23/ai-risk-rohin-shah)