nunosempere.com/blog/2023/index.md

## In 2023...

- [Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022](https://nunosempere.com/2023/01/07/forecasting-newsletter-november-december-2022)
- [Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others](https://nunosempere.com/2023/01/11/can-gpt-produce-ideas)
- [Prevalence of belief in "human biodiversity" amongst self-reported EA respondents in the 2020 SlateStarCodex Survey](https://nunosempere.com/2023/01/16/hbd-ea)
- [Interim Update on QURI's Work on EA Cause Area Candidates](https://nunosempere.com/2023/01/19/interim-update-cause-candidates)
- [There will always be a Voigt-Kampff test](https://nunosempere.com/2023/01/21/there-will-always-be-a-voigt-kampff-test)
- [My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.](https://nunosempere.com/2023/01/23/my-highly-personal-skepticism-braindump-on-existential-risk)
- [An in-progress experiment to test how Laplace’s rule of succession performs in practice.](https://nunosempere.com/2023/01/30/an-in-progress-experiment-to-test-how-laplace-s-rule-of)
- [Effective Altruism No Longer an Expanding Empire.](https://nunosempere.com/2023/01/30/ea-no-longer-expanding-empire)
- [no matter where you stand](https://nunosempere.com/2023/02/03/no-matter-where-you-stand)
- [Just-in-time Bayesianism](https://nunosempere.com/2023/02/04/just-in-time-bayesianism)
- [Impact markets as a mechanism for not loosing your edge](https://nunosempere.com/2023/02/07/impact-markets-sharpen-your-edge)
- [Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3](https://nunosempere.com/2023/02/09/straightforwardly-eliciting-probabilities-from-gpt-3)
- [Inflation-proof assets](https://nunosempere.com/2023/02/11/inflation-proof-assets)
- [A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates](https://nunosempere.com/2023/02/19/bayesian-adjustment-to-rethink-priorities-welfare-range-estimates)
- [A computable version of Solomonoff induction](https://nunosempere.com/2023/03/01/computable-solomonoff)
- [Use of “I'd bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical](https://nunosempere.com/2023/03/02/metaphorical-bets)
- [Winners of the Squiggle Experimentation and 80,000 Hours Quantification Challenges](https://nunosempere.com/2023/03/08/winners-of-the-squiggle-experimentation-and-80-000-hours)
- [What happens in Aaron Sorkin's *The Newsroom*](https://nunosempere.com/2023/03/10/aaron-sorkins-newsroom)
- [Estimation for sanity checks](https://nunosempere.com/2023/03/10/estimation-sanity-checks)
- [Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval](https://nunosempere.com/2023/03/15/fit-beta)
- [Some estimation work in the horizon](https://nunosempere.com/2023/03/20/estimation-in-the-horizon)
- [Soothing software](https://nunosempere.com/2023/03/27/soothing-software)
- [What is forecasting?](https://nunosempere.com/2023/04/03/what-is-forecasting)
- [Things you should buy, quantified](https://nunosempere.com/2023/04/06/things-you-should-buy-quantified)
- [General discussion thread](https://nunosempere.com/2023/04/08/general-discussion-april)
- [A Soothing Frontend for the Effective Altruism Forum ](https://nunosempere.com/2023/04/18/forum-frontend)
- [A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification](https://nunosempere.com/2023/04/25/worldview-diversification)
- [Review of Epoch's *Scaling transformative autoregressive models*](https://nunosempere.com/2023/04/28/expert-review-epoch-direct-approach)
- [Updating in the face of  anthropic effects is possible](https://nunosempere.com/2023/05/11/updating-under-anthropic-effects)