80 lines
2.5 KiB
Plaintext
80 lines
2.5 KiB
Plaintext
# PRT: Predict, Resolve & Tally
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57 lines of code which allow you to make predictions, resolve, and tally them,
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without many user niceties. Name inspired by PRT, from the Worm serial
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## Example of use
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Open a terminal, with Ctrl+Alt+T
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The command predict creates a new prediction:
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$ predict
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> Statement: Before 1 July 2020 will SpaceX launch its first crewed mission into orbit?
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> Probability (%): 50
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> Date of resolution (year/month/day): 2020/07/01
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The command resolve resolves all predictions whose dates have passed.
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$ resolve
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Before 10 April 2020 will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain? (2020/04/10)
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> (TRUE/FALSE) TRUE
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The command tally tallies how you did for all resolved predictions.
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$ tally
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0 to 10 : 0 TRUE and 10 FALSE
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10 to 20 : 0 TRUE and 5 FALSE
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20 to 30 : 1 TRUE and 3 FALSE
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30 to 40 : 2 TRUE and 7 FALSE
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40 to 50 : 10 TRUE and 11 FALSE
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50 to 60 : 10 TRUE and 10 FALSE
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60 to 70 : 7 TRUE and 0 FALSE
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70 to 80 : 10 TRUE and 2 FALSE
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80 to 90 : 10 TRUE and 1 FALSE
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90 to 100 : 1 TRUE and 0 FALSE
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## Installation
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### 1. Add the following to your .bashrc
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Copy the contents or source the PRT file to your .bashrc file. For example:
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```
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[ -f /home/nuno/Documents/PRT ] && source /home/nuno/Documents/PRT
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```
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### 2. Change the directory.
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Change the first 3 lines so that the program uses the directory of your choice.
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For example, in my system they might be:
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```
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pendingPredictions=/home/nuno/Documents/Forecasting/pendingPredictions.txt
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pendingPredictionsTemp="${pendingPredictions}.t"
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resolvedPredictions=/home/nuno/Documents/Forecasting/resolvedPredictions.txt
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```
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## Gotchas
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CSV
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- Statements, predictions and probabilities are saved, internally, as a csv
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file.
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- This requires not using commas in your statements
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Dates:
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- Dates are in the year/month/day format, so that they can be compared
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alphanumerically as strings. That is, an earlier date, in this format, would
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come earlier in a dictionary than a later date.
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- 2020/7/1 is not a valid date, because it would come after 2020/10/01. Write
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dates using two digits for both month and dates, like: 2020/07/01.
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Runs using bash. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bash_(Unix_shell)>
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Windows and Mac are not supported, though you could get this to run there if
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you wanted to, through various bash for Windows interpreters, like the one that
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comes with git for Windows <https://git-scm.com/download/win>
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The tally function only accepts predictions with 1% granularity, and it
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aggregates them with 10% granularity.
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