import clsx from 'clsx' import _ from 'lodash' import { useEffect, useLayoutEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react' import Textarea from 'react-expanding-textarea' import { XIcon } from '@heroicons/react/solid' import { Answer } from '../../common/answer' import { Contract } from '../../common/contract' import { AmountInput } from './amount-input' import { Col } from './layout/col' import { createAnswer, placeBet, resolveMarket } from '../lib/firebase/api-call' import { Row } from './layout/row' import { Avatar } from './avatar' import { SiteLink } from './site-link' import { DateTimeTooltip } from './datetime-tooltip' import dayjs from 'dayjs' import { BuyButton, ChooseCancelSelector } from './yes-no-selector' import { Spacer } from './layout/spacer' import { formatMoney, formatPercent, formatWithCommas, } from '../../common/util/format' import { InfoTooltip } from './info-tooltip' import { useUser } from '../hooks/use-user' import { getProbabilityAfterBet, getOutcomeProbability, calculateShares, calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet, } from '../../common/calculate' import { firebaseLogin } from '../lib/firebase/users' import { Bet } from '../../common/bet' import { useAnswers } from '../hooks/use-answers' import { ResolveConfirmationButton } from './confirmation-button' import { tradingAllowed } from '../lib/firebase/contracts' import { removeUndefinedProps } from '../../common/util/object' export function AnswersPanel(props: { contract: Contract; answers: Answer[] }) { const { contract } = props const { creatorId, resolution, resolutions } = contract const answers = useAnswers(contract.id) ?? props.answers const [winningAnswers, otherAnswers] = _.partition( answers.filter((answer) => answer.id !== '0'), (answer) => answer.id === resolution || (resolutions && resolutions[answer.id]) ) const sortedAnswers = [ ..._.sortBy(winningAnswers, (answer) => resolutions ? -1 * resolutions[answer.id] : 0 ), ..._.sortBy( otherAnswers, (answer) => -1 * getOutcomeProbability(contract.totalShares, answer.id) ), ] const user = useUser() const [resolveOption, setResolveOption] = useState< 'CHOOSE' | 'CHOOSE_MULTIPLE' | 'CANCEL' | undefined >() const [chosenAnswers, setChosenAnswers] = useState<{ [answerId: string]: number }>({}) const chosenTotal = _.sum(Object.values(chosenAnswers)) const onChoose = (answerId: string, prob: number) => { if (resolveOption === 'CHOOSE') { setChosenAnswers({ [answerId]: prob }) } else { setChosenAnswers((chosenAnswers) => { return { ...chosenAnswers, [answerId]: prob, } }) } } const onDeselect = (answerId: string) => { setChosenAnswers((chosenAnswers) => { const newChosenAnswers = { ...chosenAnswers } delete newChosenAnswers[answerId] return newChosenAnswers }) } useLayoutEffect(() => { setChosenAnswers({}) }, [resolveOption]) const showChoice = resolution ? undefined : resolveOption === 'CHOOSE' ? 'radio' : resolveOption === 'CHOOSE_MULTIPLE' ? 'checkbox' : undefined return ( {sortedAnswers.map((answer) => ( ))} {sortedAnswers.length === 0 ? (
No answers yet...
) : (
None of the above:{' '} {formatPercent(getOutcomeProbability(contract.totalShares, '0'))}
)} {tradingAllowed(contract) && !resolveOption && ( )} {user?.id === creatorId && !resolution && ( )} ) } function AnswerItem(props: { answer: Answer contract: Contract showChoice: 'radio' | 'checkbox' | undefined chosenProb: number | undefined totalChosenProb?: number onChoose: (answerId: string, prob: number) => void onDeselect: (answerId: string) => void }) { const { answer, contract, showChoice, chosenProb, totalChosenProb, onChoose, onDeselect, } = props const { resolution, resolutions, totalShares } = contract const { username, avatarUrl, name, createdTime, number, text } = answer const isChosen = chosenProb !== undefined const createdDate = dayjs(createdTime).format('MMM D') const prob = getOutcomeProbability(totalShares, answer.id) const roundedProb = Math.round(prob * 100) const probPercent = formatPercent(prob) const wasResolvedTo = resolution === answer.id || (resolutions && resolutions[answer.id]) const [isBetting, setIsBetting] = useState(false) return (
{text}
{name}
{createdDate}
#{number}
{isBetting ? ( setIsBetting(false)} /> ) : ( {!wasResolvedTo && (showChoice === 'checkbox' ? ( { const { value } = e.target const numberValue = value ? parseInt(value.replace(/[^\d]/, '')) : 0 if (!isNaN(numberValue)) onChoose(answer.id, numberValue) }} /> ) : (
{probPercent}
))} {showChoice ? (
{showChoice === 'checkbox' && (
{chosenProb && totalChosenProb ? Math.round((100 * chosenProb) / totalChosenProb) : 0} % share
)}
) : ( <> {tradingAllowed(contract) && ( { setIsBetting(true) }} /> )} {wasResolvedTo && (
Chosen{' '} {resolutions ? `${Math.round(resolutions[answer.id])}%` : ''}
{probPercent}
)} )}
)} ) } function AnswerBetPanel(props: { answer: Answer contract: Contract closePanel: () => void }) { const { answer, contract, closePanel } = props const { id: answerId } = answer const user = useUser() const [betAmount, setBetAmount] = useState(undefined) const [error, setError] = useState() const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false) const inputRef = useRef(null) useEffect(() => { inputRef.current && inputRef.current.focus() }, []) async function submitBet() { if (!user || !betAmount) return if (user.balance < betAmount) { setError('Insufficient balance') return } setError(undefined) setIsSubmitting(true) const result = await placeBet({ amount: betAmount, outcome: answerId, contractId: contract.id, }).then((r) => r.data as any) console.log('placed bet. Result:', result) if (result?.status === 'success') { setIsSubmitting(false) closePanel() } else { setError(result?.error || 'Error placing bet') setIsSubmitting(false) } } const betDisabled = isSubmitting || !betAmount || error const initialProb = getOutcomeProbability(contract.totalShares, answer.id) const resultProb = getProbabilityAfterBet( contract.totalShares, answerId, betAmount ?? 0 ) const shares = calculateShares(contract.totalShares, betAmount ?? 0, answerId) const currentPayout = betAmount ? calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract, { outcome: answerId, amount: betAmount, shares, } as Bet) : 0 const currentReturn = betAmount ? (currentPayout - betAmount) / betAmount : 0 const currentReturnPercent = (currentReturn * 100).toFixed() + '%' return (
Buy this answer
Amount
Implied probability
{formatPercent(initialProb)}
{formatPercent(resultProb)}
Payout if chosen
{formatMoney(currentPayout)}   (+{currentReturnPercent})
{user ? ( ) : ( )} ) } function CreateAnswerInput(props: { contract: Contract }) { const { contract } = props const user = useUser() const [text, setText] = useState('') const [betAmount, setBetAmount] = useState(10) const [amountError, setAmountError] = useState() const [isSubmitting, setIsSubmitting] = useState(false) const canSubmit = text && betAmount && !amountError && !isSubmitting const submitAnswer = async () => { if (canSubmit) { setIsSubmitting(true) const result = await createAnswer({ contractId: contract.id, text, amount: betAmount, }).then((r) => r.data) setIsSubmitting(false) if (result.status === 'success') { setText('') setBetAmount(10) setAmountError(undefined) } } } const resultProb = getProbabilityAfterBet( contract.totalShares, 'new', betAmount ?? 0 ) const shares = calculateShares(contract.totalShares, betAmount ?? 0, 'new') const currentPayout = betAmount ? calculatePayoutAfterCorrectBet(contract, { outcome: 'new', amount: betAmount, shares, } as Bet) : 0 const currentReturn = betAmount ? (currentPayout - betAmount) / betAmount : 0 const currentReturnPercent = (currentReturn * 100).toFixed() + '%' return (
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