import { Bet } from './firebase/bets' import { Contract } from './firebase/contracts' const fees = 0.02 export function getProbability(pool: { YES: number; NO: number }) { const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO] const numerator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) const denominator = Math.pow(yesPool, 2) + Math.pow(noPool, 2) return numerator / denominator } export function getProbabilityAfterBet( pool: { YES: number; NO: number }, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO', bet: number ) { const [YES, NO] = [ pool.YES + (outcome === 'YES' ? bet : 0), pool.NO + (outcome === 'NO' ? bet : 0), ] return getProbability({ YES, NO }) } export function calculateShares( pool: { YES: number; NO: number }, bet: number, betChoice: 'YES' | 'NO' ) { const [yesPool, noPool] = [pool.YES, pool.NO] return betChoice === 'YES' ? bet + (bet * noPool ** 2) / (yesPool ** 2 + bet * yesPool) : bet + (bet * yesPool ** 2) / (noPool ** 2 + bet * noPool) } export function calculatePayout( contract: Contract, bet: Bet, outcome: 'YES' | 'NO' | 'CANCEL' ) { const { amount, outcome: betOutcome, shares } = bet if (outcome === 'CANCEL') return amount if (betOutcome !== outcome) return 0 const { totalShares } = contract if (totalShares[outcome] === 0) return 0 const startPool = contract.startPool.YES + contract.startPool.NO const pool = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO - startPool return (1 - fees) * (shares / totalShares[outcome]) * pool } export function resolvedPayout(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { if (contract.resolution) return calculatePayout(contract, bet, contract.resolution) throw new Error('Contract was not resolved') } export function currentValue(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { // const prob = getProbability(contract.pool) // const yesPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'YES') // const noPayout = calculatePayout(contract, bet, 'NO') // return prob * yesPayout + (1 - prob) * noPayout const { shares, outcome } = bet const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares] const shareValue = outcome === 'YES' ? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b (n ** 2 + s * y + y ** 2 - Math.sqrt( n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y) )) / (2 * y) : (y ** 2 + s * n + n ** 2 - Math.sqrt( y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n) )) / (2 * n) return (1 - fees) * shareValue } export function calculateSaleAmount(contract: Contract, bet: Bet) { const { shares, outcome } = bet const { YES: yesPool, NO: noPool } = contract.pool const { YES: yesStart, NO: noStart } = contract.startPool const { YES: yesShares, NO: noShares } = contract.totalShares const [y, n, s] = [yesPool, noPool, shares] const shareValue = outcome === 'YES' ? // https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=b+%2B+%28b+n%5E2%29%2F%28y+%28-b+%2B+y%29%29+%3D+c+solve+b (n ** 2 + s * y + y ** 2 - Math.sqrt( n ** 4 + (s - y) ** 2 * y ** 2 + 2 * n ** 2 * y * (s + y) )) / (2 * y) : (y ** 2 + s * n + n ** 2 - Math.sqrt( y ** 4 + (s - n) ** 2 * n ** 2 + 2 * y ** 2 * n * (s + n) )) / (2 * n) const startPool = yesStart + noStart const pool = yesPool + noPool - startPool const probBefore = yesPool ** 2 / (yesPool ** 2 + noPool ** 2) const f = pool / (probBefore * yesShares + (1 - probBefore) * noShares) const myPool = outcome === 'YES' ? yesPool - yesStart : noPool - noStart const adjShareValue = Math.min(Math.min(1, f) * shareValue, myPool) const saleAmount = (1 - fees) * adjShareValue return saleAmount }