import { Bet } from './bet' import { getProbability } from './calculate' import { Contract, outcome } from './contract' import { CREATOR_FEE, FEES } from './fees' export const getCancelPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => { const { pool } = contract const poolTotal = pool.YES + pool.NO console.log('resolved N/A, pool M$', poolTotal) const betSum = sumBy(bets, (b) => b.amount) return bets.map((bet) => ({ userId: bet.userId, payout: (bet.amount / betSum) * poolTotal, })) } export const getStandardPayouts = ( outcome: 'YES' | 'NO', contract: Contract, bets: Bet[] ) => { const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES') const winningBets = outcome === 'YES' ? yesBets : noBets const betSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.amount) const poolTotal = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO if (betSum >= poolTotal) return getCancelPayouts(contract, winningBets) const shareDifferenceSum = sumBy(winningBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) const winningsPool = poolTotal - betSum const winnerPayouts = winningBets.map((bet) => ({ userId: bet.userId, payout: bet.amount + (1 - 2 * FEES) * ((bet.shares - bet.amount) / shareDifferenceSum) * winningsPool, })) const creatorPayout = 2 * CREATOR_FEE * winningsPool console.log( 'resolved', outcome, 'pool: M$', poolTotal, 'creator fee: M$', creatorPayout ) return winnerPayouts.concat([ { userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }, ]) // add creator fee } export const getMktPayouts = (contract: Contract, bets: Bet[]) => { const p = getProbability(contract.totalShares) const poolTotal = contract.pool.YES + contract.pool.NO console.log('Resolved MKT at p=', p, 'pool: $M', poolTotal) const [yesBets, noBets] = partition(bets, (bet) => bet.outcome === 'YES') const weightedBetTotal = p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.amount) + (1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.amount) if (weightedBetTotal >= poolTotal) { return bets.map((bet) => ({ userId: bet.userId, payout: (((bet.outcome === 'YES' ? p : 1 - p) * bet.amount) / weightedBetTotal) * poolTotal, })) } const winningsPool = poolTotal - weightedBetTotal const weightedShareTotal = p * sumBy(yesBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) + (1 - p) * sumBy(noBets, (b) => b.shares - b.amount) const yesPayouts = yesBets.map((bet) => ({ userId: bet.userId, payout: p * bet.amount + (1 - 2 * FEES) * ((p * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool, })) const noPayouts = noBets.map((bet) => ({ userId: bet.userId, payout: (1 - p) * bet.amount + (1 - 2 * FEES) * (((1 - p) * (bet.shares - bet.amount)) / weightedShareTotal) * winningsPool, })) const creatorPayout = 2 * CREATOR_FEE * winningsPool return [ ...yesPayouts, ...noPayouts, { userId: contract.creatorId, payout: creatorPayout }, ] } export const getPayouts = ( outcome: outcome, contract: Contract, bets: Bet[] ) => { switch (outcome) { case 'YES': case 'NO': return getStandardPayouts(outcome, contract, bets) case 'MKT': return getMktPayouts(contract, bets) case 'CANCEL': return getCancelPayouts(contract, bets) } } const partition = (array: T[], f: (t: T) => boolean) => { const yes = [] const no = [] for (let t of array) { if (f(t)) yes.push(t) else no.push(t) } return [yes, no] as [T[], T[]] } const sumBy = (array: T[], f: (t: T) => number) => { const values = array.map(f) return values.reduce((prev, cur) => prev + cur, 0) }