import { cloneElement } from 'react' import { CREATOR_FEE } from '../../common/fees' import { Page } from '../components/page' import { SEO } from '../components/SEO' import styles from './about.module.css' export default function About() { return ( ) } // Return a copy of the JSX node tree, with the style applied const cloneWithStyle = (node: JSX.Element) => { // Base case: Node is a string if (!node.type) return node // Find the appropriate style from the module.css const className = styles[node.type] // Recursively call this function on each child let children = node.props.children if (children?.map) { // Multiple child elements children = children.map(cloneWithStyle) } else if (children) { // Single child element children = cloneWithStyle(children) } // Note: This probably strips out any existing classNames return cloneElement(node, { className, children }) } // Copied from https://www.notion.so/mantic/About-Mantic-Markets-7c44bc161356474cad54cba2d2973fe2 // And then run through https://markdowntohtml.com/ function Contents() { return cloneWithStyle(

About


Manifold Markets is creating better forecasting through user-created prediction markets.

Our mission is to expand humanity's collective knowledge by making prediction markets accessible to all.

FAQ


What are prediction markets?

Prediction markets are a place where you can bet on the outcome of future events.

Consider a question like: "Will Democrats win the 2024 US presidential election?"

If I think the Democrats are very likely to win, and you disagree, I might offer $70 to your $30 (with the winner taking home $100 total). This set of bets imply a 70% probability of the Democrats winning.

Now, you or I could be mistaken and overshooting the true probability one way or another. If so, there's an incentive for someone else to bet and correct it! Over time, the implied probability will converge to the{' '} market's best estimate . This is the power of prediction markets!

How does Manifold Markets work?

  1. Anyone can create a market for any yes-or-no question.
  2. You can ask questions about the future like "Will Taiwan remove its 14-day COVID quarantine by Jun 01, 2022?" Then use the information to plan your trip.

    You can also ask subjective, personal questions like "Will I enjoy my 2022 Taiwan trip?". Then share the market with your family and friends.

  3. Anyone can bet on a market using Manifold Dollars (M$), our platform currency.

You get M$ 1,000 just for signing up, so you can start betting immediately! When a market creator decides an outcome in your favor, you'll win Manifold Dollars from people who bet against you.

Can prediction markets work without real money?

Yes! There is substantial evidence that play-money prediction markets provide real predictive power. Examples include{' '} sports betting {' '} and internal prediction markets at firms like{' '} Google .

Our overall design also ensures that good forecasting will come out on top in the long term. In the competitive environment of the marketplace, bettors that are correct more often will gain influence, leading to better-calibrated forecasts over time.

How are markets resolved?

The creator of the prediction market decides the outcome and earns{' '} {CREATOR_FEE * 100}% of the winnings as a commission for creating and resolving the market.

This simple resolution mechanism has surprising benefits in allowing a diversity of views to flourish. Competition between market creators will lead to traders flocking to the creators with good judgment on market resolution.

What's more, when the creator is free to use their judgment, many new kinds of prediction markets can be created that are less objective or even personal. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the Metaverse in 2023?")

Why is this important?

Prediction markets aggregate and reveal crucial information that would not otherwise be known. They are a bottom-up mechanism that can influence everything from politics, economics, and business, to scientific research and education.

Prediction markets can predict{' '} which research papers will replicate ; which drug is the most effective; which policy would generate the most tax revenue; which charity will be underfunded; or, which startup idea is the most promising.

By surfacing and quantifying our collective knowledge, we as a society become wiser.

How is this different from Metaculus or Hypermind?

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We believe that in order to get the best results, you have to have skin in the game. We require that people use real money to buy the currency they use on our platform.

With Manifold Dollars being a scarce resource, people will bet more carefully and can't rig the outcome by creating multiple accounts. The result is more accurate predictions.

*/}

Manifold Markets is focused on accessibility and allowing anyone to quickly create and judge a prediction market. When we all have the power to create and share prediction markets in seconds and apply our own judgment on the outcome, it leads to a qualitative shift in the number, variety, and usefulness of prediction markets.

How does betting work?

What kind of betting system do you use?

Manifold Markets uses a special type of automated market marker based on a dynamic pari-mutuel (DPM) betting system.

Like traditional pari-mutuel systems, your payoff is not known at the time you place your bet (it's dependent on the size of the pool when the event is resolved).

Unlike traditional pari-mutuel systems, the price or probability that you buy in at changes continuously to ensure that you're always getting fair odds.

The result is a market that can function well when trading volume is low without any risk to the market creator.

Who are we?

Manifold Markets is currently a team of three:

We've previously launched consumer-facing startups ( Throne,{' '} One Word), and worked at top tech and finance companies (Google, Susquehanna).

Talk to us!


Questions? Comments? Want to create a market? Talk to us!

Further Reading


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